| 1. |
- Bird, Simeon, et al.
(författare)
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An emulator for the Lyman-alpha forest
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present methods for interpolating between the 1-D flux power spectrum of the Lyman-alpha forest, as output by cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. Interpolation is necessary for cosmological parameter estimation due to the limited number of simulations possible. We construct an emulator for the Lyman-alpha forest flux power spectrum from 21 small simulations using Latin hypercube sampling and Gaussian process interpolation. We show that this emulator has a typical accuracy of 1 : 5% and a worst-case accuracy of 4%, which compares well to the current statistical error of 3-5% at z < 3 from BOSS DR9. We compare to the previous state of the art, quadratic polynomial interpolation. The Latin hypercube samples the entire volume of parameter space, while quadratic polynomial emulation samples only lower-dimensional subspaces. The Gaussian process provides an estimate of the emulation error and we show using test simulations that this estimate is reasonable. We construct a likelihood function and use it to show that the posterior constraints generated using the emulator are unbiased. We show that our Gaussian process emulator has lower emulation error than quadratic polynomial interpolation and thus produces tighter posterior confidence intervals, which will be essential for future Lyman-alpha surveys such as DESI.
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| 2. |
- Feeney, Stephen M., et al.
(författare)
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Prospects for Resolving the Hubble Constant Tension with Standard Sirens
- 2019
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 122:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Hubble constant (H-0) estimated from the local Cepheid-supernova distance ladder is in 3-sigma tension with the value extrapolated from cosmic microwave background (CMB) data assuming the standard cosmological model. Whether this tension represents newphysics or systematic effects is the subject of intense debate. Here, we investigate how new, independent H-0 estimates can arbitrate this tension, assessing whether the measurements are consistent with being derived from the same model using the posterior predictive distribution (PPD). We show that, with existing data, the inverse distance ladder formed from BOSS baryon acoustic oscillation measurements and the Pantheon supernova sample yields an H-0 posterior near identical to the Planck CMB measurement. The observed local distance ladder value is a very unlikely draw from the resulting PPD. Turning to the future, we find that a sample of similar to 50 binary neutron star standard sirens (detectable within the next decade) will be able to adjudicate between the local and CMB estimates.
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| 3. |
- Handley, Will J., et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian inflationary reconstructions from Planck 2018 data
- 2019
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 100:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present three nonparametric Bayesian primordial reconstructions using Planck 2018 polarization data: linear spline primordial power spectrum reconstructions, cubic spline inflationary potential reconstructions, and sharp-featured primordial power spectrum reconstructions. All three methods conditionally show hints of an oscillatory feature in the primordial power spectrum in the multipole range l similar to 20 to l similar to 50, which is to some extent preserved upon marginalization. We find no evidence for deviations from a pure power law across a broad observable window (50 less than or similar to l less than or similar to 2000), but find that parametrizations are preferred which are able to account for lack of resolution at large angular scales due to cosmic variance, and at small angular scales due to Planck instrument noise. Furthermore, the late-time cosmological parameters are unperturbed by these extensions to the primordial power spectrum. This work is intended to provide a background and give more details of the Bayesian primordial reconstruction work found in the Planck 2018 papers.
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| 4. |
- Mortlock, Daniel J., et al.
(författare)
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Unbiased Hubble constant estimation from binary neutron star mergers
- 2019
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 100:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Gravitational-wave (GW) observations of binary neutron star (BNS) mergers can be used to measure luminosity distances and hence, when coupled with estimates for the mergers' host redshifts, infer the Hubble constant H-0. These observations are, however, affected by GW measurement noise, uncertainties in host redshifts and peculiar velocities, and are potentially biased by selection effects and the misspecification of the cosmological model or the BNS population. The estimation of H-0 from samples of BNS mergers with optical counterparts is tested here by using a phenomenological model for the GW strains that captures both the data-driven event selection and the distance-inclination degeneracy, while being simple enough to facilitate large numbers of simulations. A rigorous Bayesian approach to analyzing the data from such simulated BNS merger samples is shown to yield results that are unbiased, have the appropriate uncertainties, and arc robust to model misspecification. Applying such methods to a sample of N similar or equal to 50 BNS merger events, as LIGO + Virgo could produce in the next similar to 5 years, should yield robust and accurate Hubble constant estimates that are precise to a level of less than or similar to 2 km s(-1) Mpc(-1), sufficient to reliably resolve the current tension between local and cosmological measurements of H-0.
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| 5. |
- Rogers, Keir K., et al.
(författare)
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Bayesian emulator optimisation for cosmology : application to the Lyman-alpha forest
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :2
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Lyman-alpha forest provides strong constraints on both cosmological parameters and intergalactic medium astrophysics, which are forecast to improve further with the next generation of surveys including eBOSS and DESI. As is generic in cosmological inference, extracting this information requires a likelihood to be computed throughout a high-dimensional parameter space. Evaluating the likelihood requires a robust and accurate mapping between the parameters and observables, in this case the 1D flux power spectrum. Cosmological simulations enable such a mapping, but due to computational time constraints can only be evaluated at a handful of sample points; emulators are designed to interpolate between these. The problem then reduces to placing the sample points such that an accurate mapping is obtained while minimising the number of expensive simulations required. To address this, we introduce an emulation procedure that employs Bayesian optimisation of the training set for a Gaussian process interpolation scheme. Starting with a Latin hypercube sampling (other schemes with good space-filling properties can be used), we iteratively augment the training set with extra simulations at new parameter positions which balance the need to reduce interpolation error while focussing on regions of high likelihood. We show that smaller emulator error from the Bayesian optimisation propagates to smaller widths on the posterior distribution. Even with fewer simulations than a Latin hypercube, Bayesian optimisation shrinks the 95% credible volume by 90% and, e.g., the 1 sigma error on the amplitude of small-scale primordial fluctuations by 38%. This is the first demonstration of Bayesian optimisation applied to large-scale structure emulation, and we anticipate the technique will generalise to many other probes such as galaxy clustering, weak lensing and 21cm.
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| 6. |
- Setzer, Christian N., et al.
(författare)
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Serendipitous discoveries of kilonovae in the LSST main survey : maximizing detections of sub-threshold gravitational wave events
- 2019
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 485:3, s. 4260-4273
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate the ability of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) to discover kilonovae (kNe) from binary neutron star (BNS) and neutron star-black hole (NSBH) mergers, focusing on serendipitous detections in the Wide-Fast-Deep (WFD) survey. We simulate observations of kNe with proposed LSST survey strategies, focusing on cadence choices that are compatible with the broader LSST cosmology programme. If all kNe are identical to GW170817, we find the baseline survey strategy will yield 58 kNe over the survey lifetime. If we instead assume a representative population model of BNS kNe, we expect to detect only 27 kNe. However, we find the choice of survey strategy significantly impacts these numbers and can increase them to 254 and 82 kNe over the survey lifetime, respectively. This improvement arises from an increased cadence of observations between different filters with respect to the baseline. We then consider the detectability of these BNS mergers by the Advanced LIGO/Virgo (ALV) detector network. If the optimal survey strategy is adopted, 202 of the GW170817-like kNe and 56 of the BNS population model kNe are detected with LSST but are below the threshold for detection by the ALV network. This represents, for both models, an increase by a factor greater than 4.5 in the number of detected sub-threshold events over the baseline strategy. These subthreshold events would provide an opportunity to conduct electromagnetic-triggered searches for signals in gravitational-wave data and assess selection effects in measurements of the Hubble constant from standard sirens, e.g. viewing angle effects.
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| 7. |
- Widmark, Axel, et al.
(författare)
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A Bayesian model for inferring properties of the local white dwarf population in astrometric and photometric surveys
- 2019
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 485:1, s. 179-188
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Gaia mission is providing precise astrometry for an unprecedented number of white dwarfs (WDs), encoding information on stellar evolution, Type Ia supernovae progenitor scenarios, and the star formation and dynamical history of the Milky Way. With such a large data set, it is possible to infer properties of the WD population using only astrometric and photometric informations. We demonstrate a framework to accomplish this using a mock data set with Sloan Digital Sky Survey ugriz photometry and Gaia astrometric information. Our technique utilizes a Bayesian hierarchical model for inferring properties of a WD population while also taking into account all observational errors of individual objects, as well as selection and incompleteness effects. We demonstrate that photometry alone can constrain the WD population's distributions of temperature, surface gravity, and atmospheric composition, and that astrometric information significantly improves determination of the WD surface gravity distribution. We also discuss the possibility of identifying unresolved binary WDs using only photometric and astrometric informations.
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