| 1. |
- Cannone, Carla, et al.
(author)
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Addressing Challenges in Long-Term Strategic Energy Planning in LMICs : Learning Pathways in an Energy Planning Ecosystem
- 2023
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In: Energies. - : MDPI AG. - 1996-1073. ; 16:21
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents an innovative approach to addressing critical global challenges in long-term energy planning for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The paper proposes and tests an international enabling environment, a delivery ecosystem, and a community of practice. These components are integrated into workflows that yield four self-sustaining capacity-development outcomes. Planning long-term energy strategies in LMICs is particularly challenging due to limited national agency and poor international coordination. While outsourcing energy planning to foreign experts may appear to be a viable solution, it can lead to a reduction in government agency (the ability of a government to make its own informed analysis and decisions). Additionally, studies commissioned by external experts may have conflicting terms of reference, and a lack of familiarity with local conditions can result in misrepresentations of on-the-ground realities. It is argued here that enhancing national agency and analytical capacity can improve coordination and lead to more robust planning across line ministries and technical assistance (TA) providers. Moreover, the prevailing consulting model hampers the release and accessibility of underlying analytics, making it difficult to retrieve, reuse, and reconstruct consultant outputs. The absence of interoperability among outputs from various consultants hinders the ability to combine and audit the insights they provide. To overcome these challenges, five strategic principles for energy planning in LMICs have been introduced and developed in collaboration with 21 international and research organizations, including the AfDB, IEA, IRENA, IAEA, UNDP, UNECA, the World Bank, and WRI. These principles prioritize national ownership, coherence and inclusivity, capacity, robustness, transparency and accessibility. In this enabling environment, a unique delivery ecosystem consisting of knowledge products and activities is established. The paper focuses on two key knowledge products as examples of this ecosystem: the open-source energy modeling system (OSeMOSYS) and the power system flexibility tool (IRENA FlexTool). These ecosystem elements are designed to meet user-friendliness, retrievability, reusability, reconstructability, repeatability, interoperability, and audibility (U4RIA) goals. To ensure the sustainability of this ecosystem, OpTIMUS is introduced—a community of practice dedicated to maintaining, supporting, expanding, and nurturing the elements within the ecosystem. Among other ecosystem elements, training and research initiatives are introduced, namely the Energy Modelling Platform for Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Asia-Pacific as well as the ICTP Joint Summer School on Modelling Tools for Sustainable Development. Once deployed via workflows, the preliminary outcomes of these capacity-development learning pathways show promise. Further investigation is necessary to evaluate their long-term impacts, scalability, replication, and deployment costs.
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| 2. |
- DeCarolis, Joseph, et al.
(author)
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Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling
- 2017
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In: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-9118 .- 0306-2619. ; 194, s. 184-198
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) are widely used to generate insight that informs energy and environmental policy. Using ESOMs to produce policy-relevant insight requires significant modeler judgement, yet little formal guidance exists on how to conduct analysis with ESOMs. To address this shortcoming, we draw on our collective modelling experience and conduct an extensive literature review to formalize best practice for energy system optimization modelling. We begin by articulating a set of overarching principles that can be used to guide ESOM-based analysis. To help operationalize the guiding principles, we outline and explain critical steps in the modelling process, including how to formulate research questions, set spatio-temporal boundaries, consider appropriate model features, conduct and refine the analysis, quantify uncertainty, and communicate insights. We highlight the need to develop and refine formal guidance on ESOM application, which comes at a critical time as ESOMs are being used to inform national climate targets.
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| 5. |
- Pye, Steve, et al.
(author)
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Assessing qualitative and quantitative dimensions of uncertainty in energy modelling for policy support in the United Kingdom
- 2018
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In: Energy Research & Social Science. - : Elsevier. - 2214-6296 .- 2214-6326. ; 46:June, s. 332-344
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Strategic planning for the low carbon energy transition is characterised by a high degree of uncertainty across many knowledge domains and by the high stakes involved in making decisions. Energy models can be used to assist decision makers in making robust choices that reflect the concerns of many interested stakeholders. Quantitative model insights alone, however, are insufficient as some dimensions of uncertainty can only be assessed via qualitative approaches. This includes the strength of the knowledge base underlying the models, and the biases and value-ladenness brought into the process based on the modelling choices made by users. To address this deficit in current modelling approaches in the UK context, we use the NUSAP (Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree) approach to qualify uncertainty in the energy system model, ESME. We find that a range of critical model assumptions that are highly influential on quantitative model results have weaknesses, or low pedigree scores, in aspects of the knowledge base that underpins them, and are subject to potential value-ladenness. In the case of the UK, this includes assumptions around CCS deployment and bioenergy resources, both of which are highly influential in driving model outcomes. These insights are not only crucial for improving the use of models in policy-making and providing a more comprehensive understanding of uncertainty in models, but also help to contextualise quantitative results, and identify priority future research areas for improving the knowledge base used in modelling. The NUSAP approach also promotes engagement across a broader set of stakeholders in the analytical process, and opens model assumptions up to closer scrutiny, thereby contributing to transparency.
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| 6. |
- Pye, Steve, et al.
(author)
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The uncertain but critical role of demand reduction in meeting long-term energy decarbonisation targets
- 2014
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In: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier. - 0301-4215 .- 1873-6777. ; 73, s. 575-586
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Endogenous demand responses for energy services, resulting from changing prices, have long been characterised in energy systems models. However, the uncertainty associated with such demand responses, modelled through the use of price elasticities, has often been ignored. This is problematic for two key reasons - elasticity factors used in models are highly uncertain due to the limited evidence base, while at the same time, demand response has been observed as a critical mechanism for meeting long term climate mitigation targets. This paper makes two important contributions for improving the understanding of the role of price-induced demand response. Firstly, it attempts to address the problem of unsatisfactory elasticity input assumptions by undertaking an up-to-date review of the literature. Secondly, the role of demand response under uncertainty is assessed using a probabilistic approach, focusing on its contribution to mitigation. The paper highlights that demand response does play a critical role in mitigation, ensuring a more cost-effective transition to a low carbon energy system. Crucially, the uncertainties associated with price elasticities do not weaken this finding. The transport sector is the driver of this demand response leading to important implications for policy and the focus of demand side interventions.
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| 7. |
- Shivakumar, Abhishek, et al.
(author)
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Smart energy solutions in the EU: State of play and measuring progress
- 2018
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In: Energy Strategy Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-467X .- 2211-4688. ; 20, s. 133-149
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The European energy system is undergoing, and will continue to in the future, a transition towards a more sustainable energy system. An important part of this will be the deployment of smart energy solutions in the household sector, including smart meters, controls, appliances, and their integration in home networks. This study is in support of the Commission's work related to smart energy solutions in the framework of the SET plan, in particular in understanding methods to develop indicators that can be used to measure progress under the Declaration of Intent for the Action 3.1 on Initiative for Smart solutions for energy consumers. First, ‘smart energy solutions’ are defined and the type of technologies that this includes are detailed. Once the scope has been established, existing indicators that are able to monitor the levels of deployment of such technologies will be reviewed. This includes indicators being proposed or used by international and Member State level energyagencies and other organisations. It is not intended that this study will comprehensively assess the actual deployment of smart energy solutions across all EU Member States. Instead, selected countries who are more advanced in the deployment of such technologies are considered in more detail. These include France, Switzerland, Ireland, UK, and Sweden. Finally, we review estimates of the potential of demand response in Europe to achieve goals related to energy efficiency, cost savings, and renewable energy penetration.
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| 8. |
- Watts, Nick, et al.
(author)
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Health and climate change : policy responses to protect public health
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10006, s. 1861-1914
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change has been formed to map out the impacts of climate change, and the necessary policy responses, in order to ensure the highest attainable standards of health for populations worldwide. This Commission is multidisciplinary and international in nature, with strong collaboration between academic centres in Europe and China. The central finding from the Commission's work is that tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century. The key messages from the Commission are summarised below, accompanied by ten underlying recommendations to accelerate action in the next 5 years.
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| 11. |
- Watts, Nick, et al.
(author)
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The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change : from 25 years of inaction to a global transformation for public health
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 391:10120, s. 581-630
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Lancet Countdown tracks progress on health and climate change and provides an independent assessment of the health effects of climate change, the implementation of the Paris Agreement, 1 and the health implications of these actions. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission on Health and Climate Change, 2 which concluded that anthropogenic climate change threatens to undermine the past 50 years of gains in public health, and conversely, that a comprehensive response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown is a collaboration between 24 academic institutions and intergovernmental organisations based in every continent and with representation from a wide range of disciplines. The collaboration includes climate scientists, ecologists, economists, engineers, experts in energy, food, and transport systems, geographers, mathematicians, social and political scientists, public health professionals, and doctors. It reports annual indicators across five sections: climate change impacts, exposures, and vulnerability; adaptation planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. The key messages from the 40 indicators in the Lancet Countdown's 2017 report are summarised below.
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| 12. |
- Zhang, Haofei, et al.
(author)
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Monoterpenes are the largest source of summertime organic aerosol in the southeastern United States
- 2018
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In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 115:9, s. 2038-2043
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The chemical complexity of atmospheric organic aerosol (OA) has caused substantial uncertainties in understanding its origins and environmental impacts. Here, we provide constraints on OA origins through compositional characterization with molecular-level details. Our results suggest that secondary OA (SOA) from monoterpene oxidation accounts for approximately half of summertime fine OA in Centreville, AL, a forested area in the southeastern United States influenced by anthropogenic pollution. We find that different chemical processes involving nitrogen oxides, during days and nights, play a central role in determining the mass of monoterpene SOA produced. These findings elucidate the strong anthropogenic–biogenic interaction affecting ambient aerosol in the southeastern United States and point out the importance of reducing anthropogenic emissions, especially under a changing climate, where biogenic emissions will likely keep increasing.
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