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Flood prediction us...
Flood prediction using parameters calibrated on limited discharge data and uncertain rainfall scenarios
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- Reynolds, J. Eduardo (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Norrköping, Sweden.,Uppsala University; SMHI
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- Halldin, Sven (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Karlstads universitet,Institutionen för miljö- och livsvetenskaper (from 2013),Uppsala University; CNDS, Uppsala,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Karlstad Univ, Ctr Societal Risk Res CSR, Karlstad, Sweden.
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- Seibert, Jan (author)
- Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences,Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet,Institutionen för vatten och miljö,Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment,University of Zürich,Uppsala University,Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci CNDS, Uppsala, Sweden.;Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Aquat Sci & Assessment, Uppsala, Sweden.;Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, Zurich, Switzerland.
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- Xu, Chong-Yu (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Univ Oslo, Dept Geosci, Oslo, Norway.,Uppsala University;Oslo University, NOR
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- Grabs, Thomas, 1980- (author)
- Uppsala universitet,Luft-, vatten- och landskapslära,Uppsala University
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(creator_code:org_t)
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- 2020-05-04
- 2020
- English.
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:9, s. 1512-1524
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Abstract
Subject headings
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- Discharge observations and reliable rainfall forecasts are essential for flood prediction but their availability and accuracy are often limited. However, even scarce data may still allow adequate flood forecasts to be made. Here, we explored how far using limited discharge calibration data and uncertain forcing data would affect the performance of a bucket-type hydrological model for simulating floods in a tropical basin. Three events above thresholds with a high and a low frequency of occurrence were used in calibration and 81 rainfall scenarios with different degrees of uncertainty were used as input to assess their effects on flood predictions. Relatively similar model performance was found when using calibrated parameters based on a few events above different thresholds. Flood predictions were sensitive to rainfall errors, but those related to volume had a larger impact. The results of this study indicate that a limited number of events can be useful for predicting floods given uncertain rainfall forecasts.
Subject headings
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Biologi (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Biological Sciences (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Klimatforskning (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Climate Research (hsv//eng)
- NATURVETENSKAP -- Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap -- Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser (hsv//swe)
- NATURAL SCIENCES -- Earth and Related Environmental Sciences -- Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources (hsv//eng)
Keyword
- floods
- rainfall forecasts
- rainfall-runoff modelling
- event-based calibration
- ungauged basins
- value of information
- Risk and Environmental Studies
- Risk- och miljöstudier
Publication and Content Type
- ref (subject category)
- art (subject category)
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