| 1. |
- Abila, R., et al.
(författare)
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Oil extraction imperils Africa’s Great Lakes
- 2016
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 354:6312, s. 561-562
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- As the world's demands for hydrocarbons increase (1), remote areas previously made inaccessible by technological limitations are now being prospected for oil and gas deposits. Virtually unnoticed by the public, such activities are ongoing in the East African Great Lakes region, threatening these ecosystems famed for their hyper-diverse biota, including the unique adaptive radiations of cichlid fishes (2). Countries in the region see exploitation of hydrocarbon reserves as a vital economic opportunity. In the Lake Albert region of Uganda, for example, the government foresees a $3.6 billion oil profit per year starting in 2018—a sum almost as high as the country's current annual budget (3). However, oil extraction in the East African Great Lakes region poses grave risks to the environment and local communities.
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| 2. |
- Downing, Andrea S., et al.
(författare)
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Coupled human and natural system dynamics as key to the sustainability of Lake Victoria's ecosystem services
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 19:4, s. 31-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- East Africa's Lake Victoria provides resources and services to millions of people on the lake's shores and abroad. In particular, the lake's fisheries are an important source of protein, employment, and international economic connections for the whole region. Nonetheless, stock dynamics are poorly understood and currently unpredictable. Furthermore, fishery dynamics are intricately connected to other supporting services of the lake as well as to lakeshore societies and economies. Much research has been carried out piecemeal on different aspects of Lake Victoria's system; e.g., societies, biodiversity, fisheries, and eutrophication. However, to disentangle drivers and dynamics of change in this complex system, we need to put these pieces together and analyze the system as a whole. We did so by first building a qualitative model of the lake's social-ecological system. We then investigated the model system through a qualitative loop analysis, and finally examined effects of changes on the system state and structure. The model and its contextual analysis allowed us to investigate system-wide chain reactions resulting from disturbances. Importantly, we built a tool that can be used to analyze the cascading effects of management options and establish the requirements for their success. We found that high connectedness of the system at the exploitation level, through fisheries having multiple target stocks, can increase the stocks' vulnerability to exploitation but reduce society's vulnerability to variability in individual stocks. We describe how there are multiple pathways to any change in the system, which makes it difficult to identify the root cause of changes but also broadens the management toolkit. Also, we illustrate how nutrient enrichment is not a self-regulating process, and that explicit management is necessary to halt or reverse eutrophication. This model is simple and usable to assess system-wide effects of management policies, and can serve as a paving stone for future quantitative analyses of system dynamics at local scales.
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