| 1. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Societal Impacts of Storm Damage
- 2013
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Ingår i: Living with Storm Damage to Forests. - : European Forest Institute. - 9789525980080 - 9789525980097 ; 3, s. 70-77
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wind damage to forests can be divided into (1) the direct damage done to the forest and (2) indirect effects. Indirect effects may be of different kinds and may affect the environ- ment as well as society. For example, falling trees can lead to power and telecommunica- tion failures or blocking of roads. The salvage harvest of fallen trees is another example and one that involves extremely dangerous work. In this overview we provide examples of different entities, services, and activities that may be affected by wind damage to for- ests. We illustrate how valuation of the damage depends on the perspective applied and how the affected entities, services, and activities may represent different types of values. Finally we suggest means for how to actively manage the risk in an ethically sustaina- ble way. Many of our examples will be drawn from the experiences of the wind damage Gudrun in southern Sweden on 8–9 January 2005. The direct as well as indirect effects, which are described, are by no means unique to the Gudrun wind damage event and similar or even worse effects have been described after the wind damage events Martin and Lothar in 1999, and Klaus in 2009.
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| 2. |
- Andersson, Maria A, et al.
(författare)
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The cognitive profile and CSF biomarkers in dementia with Lewy bodies and Parkinson's disease dementia.
- 2011
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Ingår i: International journal of geriatric psychiatry. - : Wiley. - 1099-1166 .- 0885-6230. ; 26:1, s. 100-5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD) may be viewed as different points on a continuum reflecting the regional burden and distribution of pathology. An important clinical consideration is overlapping Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology, since it has been reported that associated AD pathology in DLB shortens survival and leads to a more rapid cognitive decline. We aimed to investigate cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers and the associated cognitive profile in DLB and PDD.
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| 3. |
- Parnetti, L, et al.
(författare)
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Changes in CSF acetyl- and butyrylcholinesterase activity after long-term treatment with AChE inhibitors in Alzheimer's disease.
- 2011
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Ingår i: Acta neurologica Scandinavica. - : Hindawi Limited. - 1600-0404 .- 0001-6314. ; 124:2, s. 122-129
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives - To measure cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) activity of acetylcholinesterase (AChE) and butyrylcholinesterase (BChE) in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) participating in randomized clinical trials from three European centers, before and after long-term treatment with different AChE inhibitors (AChEIs). Materials and methods - Of the 144 patients included in the study, 104 were treated with donepezil, 15 with galantamine, 16 with rivastigmine, and nine with placebo. CSF AChE and BChE activities were measured at baseline and after 1-year treatment. Results - Donepezil and galantamine groups showed a significant increase in CSF AChE activity at follow-up, while no changes for BChE activity were observed; in donepezil group, a positive correlation between plasma concentration and AChE activity was documented. Conversely, in rivastigmine group, a decrease in CSF activity of both enzymes was observed. CSF AChE and BChE activities were not correlated with the clinical outcome in any group considered. CSF biomarkers did not show any change after treatment. Conclusions - AChEIs differently influence the activity of target enzymes in CSF independent of their pharmacodynamic effects.
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| 4. |
- Wallin, Å K, et al.
(författare)
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CSF biomarkers predict a more malignant outcome in Alzheimer disease.
- 2010
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Ingår i: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 74:19, s. 1531-7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: To investigate if patterns of CSF biomarkers (T-tau, P-tau, and Abeta42) can predict cognitive progression, outcome of cholinesterase inhibitor (ChEI) treatment, and mortality in Alzheimer disease (AD). METHODS: We included outpatients with AD (n = 151) from a prospective treatment study with ChEI. At baseline, patients underwent cognitive assessments and lumbar puncture. The patients were assessed longitudinally. The 5-year survival rate was evaluated. CSF-Abeta42, T-tau, and P-tau were analyzed at baseline. K-means cluster analysis including the 3 CSF biomarkers was carried out. RESULTS: Cluster 1 contained 87 patients with low levels of Abeta42 and relatively low levels of T-tau and P-tau. Cluster 2 contained 52 patients with low levels of Abeta42 and intermediate levels of T-tau and P-tau. Cluster 3 contained 12 patients with low levels of Abeta42 and very high levels of CSF T-tau and P-tau. There were no differences between the clusters regarding age, gender, years of education, baseline instrumental activities of daily living, or APOE genotype. Even though there was no difference between cluster 3 and the other clusters in disease duration or global rating, the patients in cluster 3 performed worse on cognitive tests already at baseline. Patients in cluster 3 exhibited a very poor outcome of ChEI treatment. Finally, cognition deteriorated faster over time and the mortality rate was substantially increased in cluster 3. CONCLUSION: A subgroup of patients with Alzheimer disease with extreme levels of CSF biomarkers exhibits worse clinical outcomes over time, including faster progression of cognitive deficits, no response to ChEI treatment, and a higher mortality.
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| 5. |
- Andersson, Mikael, et al.
(författare)
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Life-style services and yield from south-Swedish forests adaptively managed against the risk of wind damage – a simulation study
- 2015
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 15, s. 1489-1500
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We estimated the effect of adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage under climate change on life-style services and forest yield in a south-Swedish forest using an integrated modelling approach. The ECHAM5/CCLM models had been used to produce a reference climate and a climate change scenario for the A1B emission scenario. Using the FinnFor model we estimated the effect of the climate change scenario on the site index for three common commercial tree species for the period 2001-2100. The adjusted site index was applied in projections of the forest using the Forest Time Machine model. The WINDA-GALES model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage in simulated future states of the forest. Effects of increasing forest owner motivation to take measures to adapt to climate change were simulated by comparing the effects of introducing adaptive measures in years 2001 and 2051, respectively. These adaptive measures had been identified in consultation with stakeholders. In the simulations, adaptive regimes resulted in generally increased yield, increased hunting potential and a higher number of forest management operations to be carried out, although other aspects of recreation services were reduced. The net return remained unaffected by most of the adaptive forest management regimes. The simulations were made without accounting for effects of predicted wind damage on the states of the forest. Forest owners perceiving increased risk of wind damage but also risk to their life-style would have to balance adaptive measures between these risks. We conclude that adapting forest management to reduce the risk of wind damage may impact on life-style services. Hence, this may affect the process of adaptation to an increasing risk of wind damage in southern Sweden.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Austeng, Dordi, et al.
(författare)
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Incidence of and risk factors for neonatal morbidity after active perinatal care : extremely preterm infants study in Sweden (EXPRESS)
- 2010
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Ingår i: Acta Paediatrica. - : Wiley. - 0803-5253 .- 1651-2227. ; 99:7, s. 978-992
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of neonatal morbidity in extremely preterm infants and to identify associated risk factors. Methods: Population based study of infants born before 27 gestational weeks and admitted for neonatal intensive care in Sweden during 2004-2007. Results: Of 638 admitted infants, 141 died. Among these, life support was withdrawn in 55 infants because of anticipation of poor long-term outcome. Of 497 surviving infants, 10% developed severe intraventricular haemorrhage (IVH), 5.7% cystic periventricular leucomalacia (cPVL), 41% septicaemia and 5.8% necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC); 61% had patent ductus arteriosus (PDA) and 34% developed retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) stage >= 3. Eighty-five per cent needed mechanical ventilation and 25% developed severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD). Forty-seven per cent survived to one year of age without any severe IVH, cPVL, severe ROP, severe BPD or NEC. Tocolysis increased and prolonged mechanical ventilation decreased the chances of survival without these morbidities. Maternal smoking and higher gestational duration were associated with lower risk of severe ROP, whereas PDA and poor growth increased this risk. Conclusion: Half of the infants surviving extremely preterm birth suffered from severe neonatal morbidities. Studies on how to reduce these morbidities and on the long-term health of survivors are warranted.
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| 8. |
- Balldin, Jan, 1935, et al.
(författare)
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Gamma-glutamyltransferase in alcohol use disorders: Modification of decision limits in relation to treatment goals?
- 2010
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Ingår i: Scandinavian journal of clinical and laboratory investigation. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1502-7686 .- 0036-5513. ; 70:2, s. 71-74
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Abstract Serum gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is recommended as a marker for alcohol use disorders by the Swedish National Guidelines for Addiction, although it has a low sensitivity and specificity. GGT is inexpensive and easily accessible but additional knowledge is required on how to use the marker in patients with various levels of alcohol intake. Levels of GGT were obtained from 37 male social drinkers (< 100 grams pure alcohol weekly) and 18 former alcohol-dependent males with long-term (6 +/- 5 years) abstinence. Reproducibility was calculated through repeated blood samplings. Mean serum activity of GGT, in former alcohol-dependent males, was 0.26 microkat/L with an intra-class correlation coefficient of 0.85. In social drinkers, these figures were 0.34 microkat/L and 0.92, respectively. In treatment of males, with the goal of abstinence, upper reference limit is suggested to be 0.40 microkat/L. Goals of non-harmful drinking (< 100 grams weekly) suggest higher limits (0.62 microkat/L). Thirty percent increase of GGT should be suggestive of relapse.
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| 9. |
- Berggren, Ulf, 1948, et al.
(författare)
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Dopamine D2 Receptor Genotype Is Associated with Increased Mortality at a 10-Year Follow-up of Alcohol-Dependent Individuals.
- 2010
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Ingår i: Alcohol and alcoholism. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1464-3502 .- 0735-0414. ; 45:1, s. 1-5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIMS: Because the TAQ1 A1 allele may be associated with alcohol-related medical illnesses, and medical illnesses in alcohol-dependent individuals are associated with increased mortality, we test the hypothesis that the TAQ1 A1 allele of the DRD2 gene is associated with increased mortality in alcohol-dependent individuals. METHODS: Following an index treatment episode, a 10-year follow-up study in 366 alcohol-dependent individuals was performed. The TAQ1 A1/A2 DRD2 genotype and allele frequencies were compared between those deceased and those still living at the 10-year point. In addition, the genotype and allele frequencies of these alcohol-dependent individuals were compared to that in 578 control subjects. RESULTS: The prevalence of the A1 allele differed between the deceased and living patients and the controls: 47% of the deceased were A1+, compared to 37% of the living patients and 32% of the controls. The frequency of the TAQ1 A1/A2 genotype also differed between the groups. Thus, 43% had the A1/A2 genotype in comparison with 32% in the living patients and 29% in the controls. The TAQ 1 A1 allele frequency differed between the groups. The frequency of A1 allele was 25% in the deceased patients compared to 21% in the living patients and 17% in the controls. CONCLUSION: The TAQ I A1 allele of the DRD2 gene (or DRD2 gene region) was associated with increased mortality over a 10-year period in alcohol-dependent individuals.
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| 10. |
- Berggren, Ulf, 1948, et al.
(författare)
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Thrombocytopenia in early alcohol withdrawal is associated with development of delirium tremens or seizures.
- 2009
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Ingår i: Alcohol and alcoholism (Oxford, Oxfordshire). - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1464-3502 .- 0735-0414. ; 44:4, s. 382-6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- AIMS: In several studies, possible risk factors/predictors for severe alcohol withdrawal syndrome (AWS), i.e. delirium tremens (DT) and/or seizures, have been investigated. We have recently observed that low blood platelet count could be such a risk factor/predictor. We therefore investigated whether such an association could be found using a large number of alcohol-dependent individuals (n = 334). METHODS: This study is a retrospectively conducted cohort study based on data from female and male patients (>20 years of age), consecutively admitted to an alcohol treatment unit. The individuals had to fulfil the discharge diagnoses alcohol dependence and alcohol withdrawal syndrome according to DSM-IV. RESULTS: During the treatment period, 3% of the patients developed DT, 2% seizures and none had co-occurrence of both conditions. Among those with DT, a higher proportion had thrombocytopenia. Those with seizures had lower blood platelet count and a higher proportion of them had thrombocytopenia. The sensitivity and specificity of thrombocytopenia for the development of DT during the treatment period was 70% and 69%, respectively. The positive predictive value (PPV) was 6% and the negative predictive value (NPV) was 99%. For the development of seizures, the figure for sensitivity was 75% and for specificity 69%. The figures for PPV and NPV were similar as those for the development of DT. CONCLUSIONS: Thrombocytopenia is more frequent in patients who develop severe AWS (DT or seizures). The findings, including the high NPV of thrombocytopenia, must be interpreted with caution due to the small number of patients who developed AWS. Further studies replicating the present finding are therefore needed before the clinical usefulness can be considered.
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| 11. |
- Bergh, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Effekter av ett förändrat klimat på skogen och implikationer för skogsbruket : Bilaga B 19, Arbetsrapport 34
- 2007
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Ingår i: Sverige inför klimatförändringarna. - : Fritzes. ; , s. 1-71
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Bokkapitel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Att klimatet kan komma att förändras påverkar svenskt skogsbruk. Skogen har i sig en direkt inverkan på klimatet samtidigt som skogsbruket kan behöva anpassas till de nya förhållandena. Ett osäkert klimat sätter brukandet av skogen i ett nytt läge som vi inte har någon tidigare erfarenhet av. Scenarier för framtida klimatutveckling är behäftade med stor osäkerhet och de förväntade effekterna på skogen blir således ännu mer osäkra. Trots detta kan man ändå förutsäga några sannolika huvuddrag i effekterna på den svenska skogen vid ett framtida ändrat klimat. En ökad potential för biomassaproduktion kan förväntas, liksom ökade möjligheter att använda nya arter i skogsbruket. Samtidigt ökar sannolikt risken för vissa typer av skador.Att väga eventuella fördelar i form av ökad produktion och ökade möjligheter i trädslagsval mot ökade risker för skador är viktigt för att ge samhället ett helhetsperspektiv och för att en större grupp ska ha möjlighet att ta till sig frågan. Det är också viktigt att i största möjliga mån kvantifiera eller ge ramarna i ekonomiska termer för hur det förändrade klimatet kan tänkas påverka skogsbruket. Vidare kan det vara styrande för prioritering av fortsatta forskningsarbeten och riskbedömning och för att prioritera åtgärder. Därför har vi försökt utifrån befintlig kunskap idag, konstruera en Tabell över den ekonomiska betydelsen och forskningsbarheten för olika risk/ämnesområden (se Tabell 17 sidan 39). De kanske största effekterna av ett förändrat klimat på ekonomin inom skogsbruket skulle vara om vi lyckas utnyttja den ökade produktionspotentialen. Det förutsätter att vi kan bemästra de negativa effekterna i första hand av en ökad risk för vindfällning, skadeangrepp från insekter och svampar. Mot bakgrund av skogsbrukets stora betydelse som naturresurs och industriell bas, så finner vi att det är viktigt att vi står rustade inför en framtid med såväl ökade hot som nya möjligheter.I denna skrift försöker vi beskriva och analysera tänkbara effekter av ett förändrat klimat på skogen och bedömt deras implikationer för produktionsskogsbruket. Andra aspekter än produktionsaspekter på skogsbruket har inte behandlats. Analysen sker i fyra steg. Vi inleder med att, så långt nuvarande kunskapsläge tillåter, kvantifiera effekterna på den skogliga primärproduktionen – tillväxten i skogen. I ett andra steg omsätts dessa effekter till effekter på produktionsekonomin i ett bestånd. Därefter analyseras tänkbara effekter på risken för stormfällning i skogen. I ett sista steg breddas diskussionen till en något mera spekulativ bild av tänkbara effekter på skogsbrukets ekonomi.
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| 12. |
- Bergh, Johan, et al.
(författare)
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Skogsbruk
- 2015
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Ingår i: Klimatsäkrat Skåne. - 9789198157741 ; :2, s. 110-120
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Bokkapitel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Blennow, Kristina
(författare)
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Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?
- 2017
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.
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| 17. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Are values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place the values most vulnerable to climate change?
- 2019
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 14:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place have sometimes been downplayed in the climate change discourse. However, they have been suggested to be not only important to citizens but the values most vulnerable to climate change. Here we test four empirical consequences of the suggestion: (i) at least 50% of the locations citizens' consider to be the most important locations in their municipality are chosen because they represent these values, (ii) locations representing these values have a high probability of being damaged by climate change induced sea level rise, (iii) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe in the local effects of climate change, and (iv) citizens for which these values are particularly strongly held less strongly believe that they have experienced the effects of climate change. The tests were made using survey data collected in 2014 from 326 citizens owning property in Höganäs municipality, Sweden, and included values elicited using a new methodology separating instrumental values from end values, and using the former (which strictly speaking should be seen as estimates of usefulness rather than as aims in themselves) as stepping stones to pinpoint the latter, that represent the true interests of the respondents. The results provide the first evidence that, albeit frequent, values related to culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place are not the values most vulnerable to climate change. This in turn indicates a need to further investigate the vulnerability of these values to climate change, using a methodology that clearly distinguishes between instrumental and end values.
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Climate change and the probability of wind damage in two Swedish forests
- 2010
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Ingår i: Forest Ecology and Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0378-1127 .- 1872-7042. ; 259, s. 818-830
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We simulated how possible changes in wind and ground-frost climate and state of the forest due to changes in the future climate may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within one northern and one southern study area in Sweden, respectively. The topography of the study areas was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in the site productivity equal to a relative change in NPP, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of the site index in response to climate change using the model The Forest Time Machine. Global climate change scenarios based on two emission scenarios and one general circulation model were downscaled to the regional level. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the sensitivity of the forest to wind and the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands for the periods 2011–2041 and 2071–2100 and for a control period 1961–1990. This was done while taking into account effects on stability of the forest from expected changes in the occurrence of ground frost. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated for both study areas when adhering to recommended management rules of today. Adding also a changed wind climate further increased the probability of wind damage. Calculated probabilities of wind damage were generally higher in the southern study area than in the northern one and were explained by differences in wind climate and the state of the forests, for example with respect to tree species composition. The indicated increase in sensitivity of the forest to wind under the current management regime, and possibly increasing windiness, motivate further analysis of the effects of different management options on the probability of wind damage and what modifications of Swedish forest management are possibly warranted.
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| 22. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Climate Change : Believing and seeing implies adapting
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 7:11, s. 1-7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD 60.01) to 0.81 (SD 60.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD 60.008) to 0.91 (SD 60.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.
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| 23. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Climate change: Motivation for taking measure to adapt
- 2009
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-9495 .- 0959-3780. ; 19, s. 100-104
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We tested two consequences of a currently influential theory based on the notion of seeing adaptations to climate change as local adjustments to deal with changing conditions within the constraints of the broader economic-social-political arrangements. The notion leaves no explicit role for the strength of personal beliefs in climate change and adaptive capacity. The consequences were: (i) adaptive action to climate change taken by an individual who is exposed to and sensitive to climate change is not influenced to a considerable degree by their strength of belief in climate change and (ii) adaptive action to climate change taken by an individual who is exposed to and sensitive to climate change is not influenced to a considerable degree by their strength of belief in an adaptive capacity. Data from a 2004 questionnaire of 1950 Swedish private individual forest owners, who were assumed exposed to and sensitive to climate change, were used. Strength of belief in climate change and adaptive capacities were found to be crucial factors for explaining observed differences in adaptation among Swedish forest owners. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 24. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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DeveLoP—A Rationale and Toolbox for Democratic Landscape Planning
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sustainability (Switzerland). - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 13:21
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A rationale for an individuals-oriented landscape approach to sustainable land-use planning based on an analysis of bio-geo-physical components as well as the human components of the landscape is presented. A toolbox for analysing individuals’ decision-making and valuations in the landscape is described. The toolbox can provide evidence on the drivers of individuals’ decision-making in the landscape and the decision strategies they apply. This evidence can be used to identify communication needs and to design guidelines for effective communication. The tool for value elicitation separates the instrumental values (means) and end values (goals) of individuals with respect to locations in the landscape. This distinction, and knowledge of the end values in the landscape, are critical for the achievement of policy goals and for spatial planning from a democratic point of view. The individuals-oriented landscape approach has roots in geography and draws on behavioural decision research together with a model for integrating “science and proven experience” that is widely used in public decision-making in the Nordic countries. The approach differs from other scholarly disciplines addressing sustainable land-use planning. It is suitable for application on decision-making problems that include trade-offs between values. An overview of empirical studies is provided in which the individuals-oriented landscape rationale is applied to climate change.
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| 25. |
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| 26. |
- Blennow, Kristina
(författare)
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Evaluating the Local Climate Impacts Profile tool for assessing local impacts of extreme weather events
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Geography and Natural Disasters. - : OMICS Publishing Group. - 2167-0587. ; 4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The climate change adaptation tool Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP), developed and previously widely usedin the UK, was systematically evaluated in terms of its transferability to Sweden and its usefulness as a catalyst forawareness-raising and action with respect to climate change adaptation. The tool includes scoping, media trawl,interviews and reporting and was applied in three Swedish municipalities. It was found that after some adjustment,the tool can be applied successfully under Swedish conditions. The municipalities involved found the results useful forstimulating local adaptation work. However, the municipalities concluded that LCLIP is primarily a beginner's tool thatcan be applied at a low cost and that other, more costly investigations on vulnerability to extreme weather typically needto be conducted for successful adaptation to climate change at municipal level. An advantage of the LCLIP tool is thatit involves civil servants from all departments in the municipality and thus the resulting vulnerability discussions alsoinvolve departments dealing with ‘soft' issues, such as administration and care.
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| 27. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluating WINDA : a tool for assessing the probability of wind damage to forest stands
- 2003
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the International Conference Wind Effects on Trees. ; , s. 137-144
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- WINDA is an integrated system of models for calculating the stand-wise probability of wind damage of trees within a landscape (Blennow & Sallnäs, submitted). It integrates a modified version of the dose/response model HWIND (Peltola et al., 1999), the airflow model WASP (Mortensen et al., 1998), and a component for calculating the zero-plane displacement and surface roughness. WINDA uses a GIS for geographical computations. The calculations are made point-wise at exposed stand edges and the results are combined for each stand. The likelihood of damage is calculated using extreme value theory. The mechanistic modelling approach makes WINDA useful for evaluating effects on the probability of wind damage of silvicultural treatments and forestry activities as well as of a changed climate. This paper briefly outlines WINDA and evaluates output by comparing predicted damage with observed damage for two landscapes in southern Sweden.
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| 28. |
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| 29. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Forest owner motivations and attitudes towards supplying biomass for energy in Europe
- 2014
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Ingår i: Biomass and Bioenergy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0961-9534 .- 1873-2909. ; 67, s. 223-230
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The European Commission expects the use of biomass for energy in the EU to increasesignificantly between 2010 and 2020 to meet a legally binding target to cover at least 20%of EU’s total energy use from renewable sources in 2020. According to estimates made bythe member states of the EU, the direct supply of biomass from forests is expected toincrease by 45% on a volume basis between 2006 and 2020 in response to increasingdemand (Beurskens LWM, Hekkenberg M, Vethman P. Renewable energy projections aspublished in the national renewable energy action plans of the European Member states.ECN and EEA; 2011. http://https://www.ecn.nl/docs/library/report/2010/e10069.pdf[accessed 25.04.2014]; Dees M, Yousef A, Ermert J. Analysis of the quantitative tables ofthe national renewable energy action plans prepared by the 27 European Union MemberStates in 2010. BEE working paper D7.2. Biomass Energy Europe project. FELIS e Departmentof Remote Sensing and landscape information Systems, University of Freiburg,Germany; 2011). Our aims were to test the hypotheses that European private forestowners’ attitudes towards supplying woody biomass for energy (1) can be explained bytheir responses to changes in prices and markets and (2) are positive so that the forestbiomass share of the EU 2020 renewable energy target can be met. Based on survey datacollected in 2010 from 800 private forest owners in Sweden, Germany and Portugal ourresults show that the respondents’ attitudes towards supplying woody biomass for energycannot be explained as direct responses to changes in prices and markets. Our results,furthermore, imply that European private forest owners cannot be expected tosupply the requested amounts of woody biomass for energy to meet the forest biomassshare of the EU 2020 renewable energy target, at least if stemwood is to play theimportant role as studies by Verkerk PJ, Anttila P, Eggers J, Lindner M, Asikainen A. Therealisable potential supply of woody biomass fromforests in the European Union. For EcolManag 2011;261: 2007e2015, UNECE and FAO. The European forest sector outlook study II 2010e2030. United Nations, New York and Geneva; 2011 [abbreviated to EFSOS II] andElbersen B, Staritsky I, Hengeveld G, Schelhaas MJ, Naeff H, Bo¨ ttcher H. Atlas of EUbiomass potentials; 2012. Available from: http://www.biomassfutures.eu [accessed14.10.2013] suggest.
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| 30. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change : University Education Trumps Value Profile
- 2016
-
Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Do forest owners’ levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.
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| 31. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Implementing storm damage in a dynamic vegetation model for regional applications in Sweden
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Ecological Modelling. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3800 .- 1872-7026. ; 247, s. 71-82
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wind is the dominant agent of damage in forests in Western Europe. Traditional wind-damage models calculate a probability for damage or a critical wind speed at which damage occurs. However, in a dynamic vegetation model actual damage to stands and individual trees is needed to get a dynamical progression of the vegetation. We present a prototype for a new approach to modelling forest wind damage at the regional scale, which we incorporate within a dynamic vegetation model. The approach is based on knowledge from both empirical and mechanical models and calculates the damaged fraction of a cohort based on wind load and a sensitivity that depends on the current physical state and history of the cohort in relation to the ecosystem. The modelling concept has been developed, calibrated and evaluated for Swedish conditions but can be applicable to other similar areas with minor modification. Because of the stochastic nature of local wind load and the difficulty of describing the stand-level exposure, the ability to explain observed damage at stand level was low. Regional level variation in damage, which more depends on the wind load, was however explained reasonably well (R-2 = 0.43). We suggest that this is a useful concept for evaluating alternatives of forest management under different climate scenarios in the process of adaptation to future storm-damage risks. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 32. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Kan man undvika stormskador?
- 2004. - 1
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Ingår i: Osäkerhet och aktiv riskhantering. - Alnarp : Sustainable Forestry in Southern Sweden (SUFOR). - 9157666431 ; , s. 39-43
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 33. |
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| 34. |
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| 35. |
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| 36. |
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| 37. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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”Modul 1 Skogsbruk”. Klimatet och skogen – underlag för nationell forskning
- 2006
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Ingår i: Kungl. Skogs- och Lantbruksakademiens tidskrift. - 0023-5350. ; 145:9, s. 13-18
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Behovet av ny kunskap i anslutning till klimatförändringen är enormt. Det behövs ny kunskap om hur • klimatet kan komma att utvecklas. • skogsekosystemet kan komma att utvecklas. • dessa system interagerar. Detta kunskapsuppbyggande är högst angeläget att påbörja men kommer att ta tid. Många beslut inom skogsbruket måste fattas redan idag utan tillgång till forskningsresultaten. Man tvingas alltså redan nu förhålla sig till ett osäkert klimat. Därför, och för att det trots allt alltid kommer att finnas osäkerhet inför framtiden, vill vi stödja besluten genom att utveckla ett rationellt förhållningssätt till osäkerhet och risk. För att snabbt kunna ta fram praktiskt användbar kunskap vill vi i hög grad utgå från skogliga beslutssituationer när vi väljer vilka problemställningar vi ska hantera inom programmet. Framtagandet av ny kunskap skapar i sig ett problem för riskkommunikation. Kunskapsklyftan i förhållande till mottagaren ökar. Att överbrygga den klyftan är en av de viktigaste faktorerna för att lyckas förändra mottagarens kunskapsläge, och därigenom dennes beteende.
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| 38. |
- Blennow, Kristina
(författare)
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Pervasive Growth Reduction in Norway Spruce Forests following Wind Disturbance
- 2012
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Ingår i: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: In recent decades the frequency and severity of natural disturbances by e.g., strong winds and insect outbreaks has increased considerably in many forest ecosystems around the world. Future climate change is expected to further intensify disturbance regimes, which makes addressing disturbances in ecosystem management a top priority. As a prerequisite a broader understanding of disturbance impacts and ecosystem responses is needed. With regard to the effects of strong winds – the most detrimental disturbance agent in Europe – monitoring and management has focused on structural damage, i.e., tree mortality from uprooting and stem breakage. Effects on the functioning of trees surviving the storm (e.g., their productivity and allocation) have been rarely accounted for to date. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here we show that growth reduction was significant and pervasive in a 6.79 million hectare forest landscape in southern Sweden following the storm Gudrun (January 2005). Wind-related growth reduction in Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) forests surviving the storm exceeded 10% in the worst hit regions, and was closely related to maximum gust wind speed (R2 = 0.849) and structural wind damage (R2 = 0.782). At the landscape scale, windrelated growth reduction amounted to 3.0 million m3 in the three years following Gudrun. It thus exceeds secondary damage from bark beetles after Gudrun as well as the long-term average storm damage from uprooting and stem breakage in Sweden. Conclusions/Significance: We conclude that the impact of strong winds on forest ecosystems is not limited to the immediately visible area of structural damage, and call for a broader consideration of disturbance effects on ecosystem structure and functioning in the context of forest management and climate change mitigation
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| 39. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Potential climate change impacts on the probability of wind damage in a south Swedish forest
- 2010
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 99, s. 261-278
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071-2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961-1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15-40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071-2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.
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| 40. |
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| 41. |
- Blennow, Kristina
(författare)
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Simulating damage for wind storms in the land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262)
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11, s. 771-791
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Earth system models (ESMs) are currently the most advanced tools with which to study the interactions among humans, ecosystem productivity, and the climate. The inclusion of storm damage in ESMs has long been hampered by their big-leaf approach, which ignores the canopy structure information that is required for process-based wind throw modelling. Recently the big-leaf assumptions in the large-scale land surface model ORCHIDEE-CAN were replaced by a three-dimensional description of the canopy structure. This opened the way to the integration of the processes from the small-scale wind damage risk model Forest-GALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN. The integration of Forest-GALES into ORCHIDEE-CAN required, however, developing numerically efficient solutions to deal with (1) landscape heterogeneity, i.e. account for newly established forest edges for the parameterization of gusts; (2) downscaling spatially and temporally aggregated wind fields to obtain more realistic wind speeds that would represents gusts; and (3) downscaling storm damage within the 2500 km(2) pixels of ORCHIDEE-CAN. This new version of ORCHIDEE-CAN was parameterized over Sweden. Subsequently, the performance of the model was tested against data for historical storms in southern Sweden between 1951 and 2010 and south-western France in 2009. In years without big storms, here defined as a storm damaging less than 15 x 10(6) m(3) of wood in Sweden, the model error is 1.62 x 10(6) m(3), which is about 100% of the observed damage. For years with big storms, such as Gudrun in 2005, the model error increased to 5.05 x 10(6) m(3), which is between 10 and 50% of the observed damage. When the same model parameters were used over France, the model reproduced a decrease in leaf area index and an increase in albedo, in accordance with SPOT-VGT and MODIS records following the passing of Cyclone Klaus in 2009. The current version of ORCHIDEE-CAN (revision 4262) is therefore expected to have the capability to capture the dynamics of forest structure due to storm disturbance on both regional and global scales, although the empirical parameters calculating gustiness from the gridded wind fields and storm damage from critical wind speeds may benefit from regional fitting.
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| 42. |
- Blennow, Kristina
(författare)
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Simulating wind disturbance impacts on forest landscapes: Tree-level heterogeneity matters
- 2014
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling and Software. - : Elsevier BV. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 51, s. 1-11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wind is the most detrimental disturbance agent in Europe's forest ecosystems. In recent years, disturbance frequency and severity have been increasing at continental scale, a trend that is expected to continue under future anthropogenic climate change. Disturbance management is thus increasingly important for sustainable stewardship of forests, and requires tools to evaluate the effects of management alternatives and climatic changes on disturbance risk and ecosystem services. We here present a process-based model of wind disturbance impacts on forest ecosystems, integrated into the dynamic landscape simulation model iLand. The model operates at the level of individual trees and simulates wind disturbance events iteratively, i.e., dynamically accounting for changes in forest structure and newly created edges during the course of a storm. Both upwind gap size and local shelter from neighboring trees are considered in this regard, and critical wind speeds for uprooting and stem breakage are distinguished. The simulated disturbance size, pattern, and severity are thus emergent properties of the model. We evaluated the new simulation tool against satellite-derived data on the impact of the storm Gudrun (January 2005) on a 1391 ha forest landscape in south central Sweden. Both the overall damage percentage (observation: 21.7%, simulation: 21.4%) as well as the comparison of spatial damage patterns showed good correspondence between observations and predictions (prediction accuracy: 60.4%) if the full satellite-derived structural and spatial heterogeneity of the landscape was taken into account. Neglecting within-stand heterogeneity in forest conditions, i.e., the state-of-the-art in many stand-level risk models, resulted in a considerable underestimation of simulated damage, supporting the notion that tree-level complexity matters for assessing and modeling large-scale disturbances. A sensitivity analysis further showed that changes in wind speed and soil freezing could have potentially large impacts on disturbed area and patch size. The model presented here is available as open source. It can be used to study the effects of different silvicultural systems and future climates on wind risk, as well as to quantify the impacts of wind disturbance on ecosystem services such as carbon sequestration. It thus contributes to improving our capacity to address changing disturbance regimes in ecosystem management. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 43. |
- Blennow, Kristina
(författare)
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Skador och effekter av storm – : en kunskapsöversikt
- 2013
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Sammanfattning Omfattningen av stormskador har ökat under senare tid i Sverige såväl som i Europa. För Sveriges vidkommande inträffade de hittills mest omfattande skadorna och effekterna i samband med stormen Gudrun år 2005 då 18 personer miste livet. Skadekostnaderna har beräknats till sammanlagt 20,8 miljarder kronor (MSB 2012). Stormen Gudrun har av Energimyndigheten klassats som den allvarligaste naturkatastrofen som drabbat Sverige i modern tid (EM 2006). Utöver dödsfall och olyckor skadades skog, byggnader, infrastuktur och annan egendom. Skadorna gav i sin tur upphov till ytterligare effekter. Många av dessa är svåra att orsaksmässigt binda till stormtillfället och/eller att mäta och hamnar därför ofta utanför kalkylen. Det behöver dock inte betyda att de är mindre viktiga. Det framtida vindklimatet är osäkert men vi kan inte utesluta att det blir blåsigare framöver. Det finns tecken som tyder på att stormar skulle kunna bli både mera intensiva med högre vindhastigheter som följd och omfatta större geografiska områden (Rummukainen 2012). I kombination med en stigande havsnivå och förändrat nederbördsmönster till följd av klimatförändringarna kan framtida stormar ge upphov till omfattande och allvarliga översvämningar, särskilt i södra Sverige där en stigande havsnivå inte (tillräckligt) kompenseras av landhöjningen (SOU 2007). Även om det inte blir blåsigare framöver förväntas sannolikheten för stormskador på skog öka till följd av bland annat ökad tillväxt hos skogen under ett förändrat klimat. Syftet med denna rapport är att utifrån litteraturstudium ge en översikt av kunskapsläget vad gäller stormar, de skador och effekter de ger upphov till samt hur riskerna hanteras. Dessutom är syftet att identifiera kunskapsluckor som är särskilt angelägna att fylla igen för att bidra till att ge möjlighet till att bättre hantera risken för skador och negativa effekter av storm. Utgångspunkten för arbetet har varit att risker, åtminstone delvis, är något som faktiskt finns i den fysiska världen och att vi genom kunskap om orsakssamband och människors tilltro, attityder, lärandestrategier och målsättningar kan utveckla metoder för att påverka risken och minska förlusten av det som är värdefullt. I rapporten anläggs ett systemperspektiv på problematiken för att visa hur skador på strukturer till följd av storm orsaksmässigt binds samman med effekter på systemets funktion och som i sin tur kan användas för att identifiera värden på spel till följd av storm. Resultaten visar att trots att kunskapen om skador och effekter av storm förbättrats under senare år finns det fortfarande stora kunskapsluckor som det är angeläget att så långt som möjligt fylla igen. Kunskapsluckorna gäller såväl de orsaksmässiga sambanden, hur människor uppfattar risk och fattar beslut som möjligheten att på ett demokratiskt sätt värdera det som riskeras av storm, där skillnad görs mellan verkliga målsättningar och medlen för att nå målen. Kunskapsluckorna skulle lättare kunna fyllas igen genom bättre tillgång till systematiskt insamlade data. Genom att skillnaden mellan personers upplevda risk och de riskminskande åtgärder de vidtagit visat sig ibland vara stor, trots att flera möjliga åtgärder är kända, finns ett stort behov av att förbättra kunskapen om individers tilltro, målsättningar och sätt att lära, för att därigenom ge bättre förutsättningar för mera effektiv riskkommunikation. Den individbaserade kunskapen gör det möjligt för samhället att på ett demokratiskt sätt hantera risker och värdekonflikter och verka för individens välbefinnande. Den gör det dessutom möjligt att underlätta individens lärande så att hon eller han också själv bättre ska kunna hantera risker och därigenom kunna verka för att uppnå sina mål.
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| 44. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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Societal impacts of storm damage
- 2013
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Ingår i: Living with Storm Damage to Forests. What science can tell us. - 9789525980097 ; :3, s. 70-77
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 45. |
- Blennow, Kristina
(författare)
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Spatial Variation in Near-Ground Radiation and Low Temperature - Interactions with Forest Vegetation
- 1997
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Low temperature has a large impact on the survival and distribution of plants. Interactive effects with high irradiance lead to cold-induced photoinhibition, which may impact on the establishment and growth of tree seedlings. In this thesis, novel approaches are applied for relating the spatial variability in low temperature and irradiance to photosynthetic performance and growth of tree seedlings, and for modelling the micro- and local-scale spatial variations in low temperature for heterogeneous terrain. The methodologies include the development and use of a digital image analysis system for hemispherical photographs, the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistical methods, field data acquisition of meteorological elements, plant structure, growth and photosynthetic performance. Temperature and amounts of intercepted direct radiant energy for seedlings on clear days (IDRE) were related to chlorophyll a fluorescence and the dry weight of seedlings. The combination of increased IDRE with reduced minimum temperatures resulted in persistent and strong photoinhibition as the season progressed, with likely implications for the establishment of tree seedlings at forest edges, and within shelterwood. For models of spatial distribution of low air temperature, the sky view factor was used to parameterise the radiative cooling, whilst drainage, ponding and stagnation of cold air, and thermal properties of the ground were all considered. The models hint at which scales and processes govern the development of spatial variations in low temperature for the construction of corresponding mechanistic models. The methodology is well suited for detecting areas that will be frost prone after clearing of forest and for comparing the magnitudes of impacts on low air temperature of forest management practices, such as shelterwood and soil preparation. The results can be used to formulate ground rules for use in practical forestry.
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| 46. |
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| 47. |
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| 48. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation : implications for communications with European forest professionals
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Beliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adaptation. We tested hypotheses based on this assumption using survey responses from 508 European forest professionals in 10 countries. We used the survey results to identify communication needs and the decision strategies at play, and to develop guidelines on adequate communications about climate change adaptation. We observed polarization in the positive and negative values associated with climate change impacts accepted by survey respondents. We identified a mechanism creating the polarization that we call the 'blocked belief' effect. We found that polarized values did not correlate with decisions about climate change adaptation. Strong belief in the local impacts of climate change on the forest was, however, a prerequisite of decision-making favoring adaptation. Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change also correlated with net values of expected specific impacts on the forest and generally increased with the absolute value of these in the absence of "tipping point" behavior. Tipping point behavior occurs when adaptation is not pursued in spite of the strongly negative or positive net value of expected climate change impacts. We observed negative and positive tipping point behavior, mainly in SW Europe and N-NE Europe, respectively. In addition we found that advice on effective adaptation may inhibit adaptation when the receiver is aware of effective adaptation measures unless it is balanced with information explaining how climate change leads to negative impacts. Forest professionals with weak expectations of impacts require communications on climate change and its impacts on forests before any advice on adaptation measures can be effective. We develop evidence-based guidelines on communications using a new methodology which includes Bayesian machine learning modeling of the equivalent of an expected utility function for the adaptation decision problem.
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| 49. |
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| 50. |
- Blennow, Kristina
(författare)
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The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes
- 2016
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Ingår i: AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 45, s. 430-441
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager's sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.
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