| 1. |
- Natali, S. M., et al.
(författare)
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Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across the northern permafrost region
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 9:11, s. 852-857
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter(1-3), greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO2)(4). However, the amount of CO2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates(5,6). Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October-April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.
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| 2. |
- Mbufong, H. N., et al.
(författare)
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Assessing the spatial variability in peak season CO2 exchange characteristics across the Arctic tundra using a light response curve parameterization
- 2014
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 11:17, s. 4897-4912
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper aims to assess the spatial variability in the response of CO2 exchange to irradiance across the Arctic tundra during peak season using light response curve (LRC) parameters. This investigation allows us to better understand the future response of Arctic tundra under climatic change. Peak season data were collected during different years (between 1998 and 2010) using the micrometeorological eddy covariance technique from 12 circumpolar Arctic tundra sites, in the range of 64-74 degrees N. The LRCs were generated for 14 days with peak net ecosystem exchange (NEE) using an NEE-irradiance model. Parameters from LRCs represent site-specific traits and characteristics describing the following: (a) NEE at light saturation (F-csat), (b) dark respiration (Rd), (c) light use efficiency (alpha), (d) NEE when light is at 1000 mu molm(-2) s(-1) (F-c1000), (e) potential photosynthesis at light saturation (P-sat) and (f) the light compensation point (LCP). Parameterization of LRCs was successful in predicting CO2 flux dynamics across the Arctic tundra. We did not find any trends in LRC parameters across the whole Arctic tundra but there were indications for temperature and latitudinal differences within sub-regions like Russia and Greenland. Together, leaf area index (LAI) and July temperature had a high explanatory power of the variance in assimilation parameters (F-csat, F-c1000 and P-sat), thus illustrating the potential for upscaling CO2 exchange for the whole Arctic tundra. Dark respiration was more variable and less correlated to environmental drivers than were assimilation parameters. This indicates the inherent need to include other parameters such as nutrient availability, substrate quantity and quality in flux monitoring activities.
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| 3. |
- Callaghan, TV, et al.
(författare)
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Key findings and extended summaries
- 2004
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - 0044-7447. ; 33:7, s. 386-392
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
- Callaghan, T. V., et al.
(författare)
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Effects on the function of arctic ecosystems in the short- and long-term perspectives
- 2004
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Ingår i: Ambio: a Journal of Human Environment. - : Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences. - 0044-7447. ; 33, s. 448-458
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Abstract in UndeterminedHistorically, the function of Arctic ecosystems in terms of cycles of nutrients and carbon has led to low levels of primary production and exchanges of energy, water and greenhouse gases have led to low local and regional cooling. Sequestration of carbon from atmospheric CO2, in extensive, cold organic soils and the high albedo from low, snow-covered vegetation have had impacts on regional climate. However, many aspects of the functioning of Arctic ecosystems are sensitive to changes in climate and its impacts on biodiversity. The current Arctic climate results in slow rates of organic matter decomposition. Arctic ecosystems therefore tend to accumulate organic matter and elements despite low inputs. As a result, soil-available elements like nitrogen and phosphorus are key limitations to increases in carbon fixation and further biomass and organic matter accumulation. Climate warming is expected to increase carbon and element turnover, particularly in soils, which may lead to initial losses of elements but eventual, slow recovery. Individual species and species diversity have clear impacts on element inputs and retention in Arctic ecosystems. Effects of increased CO2 and UV-B on whole ecosystems, on the other hand, are likely to be small although effects on plant tissue chemisty, decomposition and nitrogen fixation may become important in the long-term. Cycling of carbon in trace gas form is mainly as CO2 and CH4. Most carbon loss is in the form of CO2, produced by both plants and soil biota. Carbon emissions as methane from wet and moist tundra ecosystems are about 5% of emissions as CO2 and are responsive to warming in the absence of any other changes. Winter processes and vegetation type also affect CH4 emissions as well as exchanges of energy between biosphere and atmosphere. Arctic ecosystems exhibit the largest seasonal changes in energy exchange of any terrestrial ecosystem because of the large changes in albedo from late winter, when snow reflects most incoming radiation, to summer when the ecosystem absorbs most incoming radiation. Vegetation profoundly influences the water and energy exchange of Arctic ecosystems. Albedo during the period of snow cover declines from tundra to forest tundra to deciduous forest to evergreen forest. Shrubs and trees increase snow depth which in turn increases winter soil temperatures. Future changes in vegetation driven by climate change are therefore, very likely to profoundly alter regional climate.
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| 5. |
- Chang, Kuang Yu, et al.
(författare)
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Substantial hysteresis in emergent temperature sensitivity of global wetland CH4 emissions
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1, s. 2266-2266
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wetland methane (CH4) emissions ([Formula: see text]) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, [Formula: see text] projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent [Formula: see text] temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that [Formula: see text] are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between [Formula: see text] and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between [Formula: see text] and temperature, suggesting larger [Formula: see text] sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH4 production are thus needed to improve global CH4 budget assessments.
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| 6. |
- Dengel, S., et al.
(författare)
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Testing the applicability of neural networks as a gap-filling method using CH4 flux data from high latitude wetlands
- 2013
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 10, s. 8185-8200
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since the advancement in CH4 gas analyser technology and its applicability to eddy covariance flux measurements, monitoring of CH4 emissions is becoming more widespread. In order to accurately determine the greenhouse gas balance, high quality gap-free data is required. Currently there is still no consensus on CH4 gap-filling methods, and methods applied are still study-dependent and often carried out on low resolution, daily data. In the current study, we applied artificial neural networks to six distinctively different CH4 time series from high latitudes, explain the method and test its functionality. We discuss the applicability of neural networks in CH4 flux studies, the advantages and disadvantages of this method, and what information we were able to extract from such models. Three different approaches were tested by including drivers such as air and soil temperature, barometric air pressure, solar radiation, wind direction (indicator of source location) and in addition the lagged effect of water table depth and precipitation. In keeping with the principle of parsimony, we included up to five of these variables traditionally measured at CH4 flux measurement sites. Fuzzy sets were included representing the seasonal change and time of day. High Pearson correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.97 achieved in the final analysis are indicative for the high performance of neural networks and their applicability as a gap-filling method for CH4 flux data time series. This novel approach which we show to be appropriate for CH4 fluxes is a step towards standardising CH4 gap-filling protocols.
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| 7. |
- Fisher, J. B., et al.
(författare)
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Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic
- 2014
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 11:15, s. 4271-4288
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is leading to a disproportionately large warming in the high northern latitudes, but the magnitude and sign of the future carbon balance of the Arctic are highly uncertain. Using 40 terrestrial biosphere models for the Alaskan Arctic from four recent model intercomparison projects - NACP (North American Carbon Program) site and regional syntheses, TRENDY (Trends in net land atmosphere carbon exchanges), and WETCHIMP (Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project) - we provide a baseline of terrestrial carbon cycle uncertainty, defined as the multi-model standard deviation (sigma) for each quantity that follows. Mean annual absolute uncertainty was largest for soil carbon (14.0+/-9.2 kgCm(-2)), then gross primary production (GPP) (0.22+/-0.50 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), ecosystem respiration (Re) (0.23+/-0.38 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), net primary production (NPP) (0.14+/-0.33 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), autotrophic respiration (Ra) (0.09+/-0.20 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (0.14+/-0.20 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), net ecosystem exchange (NEE) (-0.01+/-0.19 kgCm(-2) yr(-1)), and CH4 flux (2.52+/-4.02 g CH4 m(-2) yr(-1)). There were no consistent spatial patterns in the larger Alaskan Arctic and boreal regional carbon stocks and fluxes, with some models showing NEE for Alaska as a strong carbon sink, others as a strong carbon source, while still others as carbon neutral. Finally, AmeriFlux data are used at two sites in the Alaskan Arctic to evaluate the regional patterns; observed seasonal NEE was captured within multi-model uncertainty. This assessment of carbon cycle uncertainties may be used as a baseline for the improvement of experimental and modeling activities, as well as a reference for future trajectories in carbon cycling with climate change in the Alaskan Arctic and larger boreal region.
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| 8. |
- Knox, Sara H., et al.
(författare)
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FLUXNET-CH4 Synthesis Activity : Objectives, Observations, and Future Directions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 100:12, s. 2607-2632
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper describes the formation of, and initial results for, a new FLUXNET coordination network for ecosystem-scale methane (CH4) measurements at 60 sites globally, organized by the Global Carbon Project in partnership with other initiatives and regional flux tower networks. The objectives of the effort are presented along with an overview of the coverage of eddy covariance (EC) CH4 flux measurements globally, initial results comparing CH4 fluxes across the sites, and future research directions and needs. Annual estimates of net CH4 fluxes across sites ranged from -0.2 +/- 0.02 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for an upland forest site to 114.9 +/- 13.4 g C m(-2) yr(-1) for an estuarine freshwater marsh, with fluxes exceeding 40 g C m(-2) yr(-1) at multiple sites. Average annual soil and air temperatures were found to be the strongest predictor of annual CH4 flux across wetland sites globally. Water table position was positively correlated with annual CH4 emissions, although only for wetland sites that were not consistently inundated throughout the year. The ratio of annual CH4 fluxes to ecosystem respiration increased significantly with mean site temperature. Uncertainties in annual CH4 estimates due to gap-filling and random errors were on average +/- 1.6 g C m(-2) yr(-1) at 95% confidence, with the relative error decreasing exponentially with increasing flux magnitude across sites. Through the analysis and synthesis of a growing EC CH4 flux database, the controls on ecosystem CH4 fluxes can be better understood, used to inform and validate Earth system models, and reconcile differences between land surface model- and atmospheric-based estimates of CH4 emissions.
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| 9. |
- McGuire, A. D., et al.
(författare)
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An assessment of the carbon balance of Arctic tundra: comparisons among observations, process models, and atmospheric inversions
- 2012
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 9:8, s. 3185-3204
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although Arctic tundra has been estimated to cover only 8% of the global land surface, the large and potentially labile carbon pools currently stored in tundra soils have the potential for large emissions of carbon (C) under a warming climate. These emissions as radiatively active greenhouse gases in the form of both CO2 and CH4 could amplify global warming. Given the potential sensitivity of these ecosystems to climate change and the expectation that the Arctic will experience appreciable warming over the next century, it is important to assess whether responses of C exchange in tundra regions are likely to enhance or mitigate warming. In this study we compared analyses of C exchange of Arctic tundra between 1990 and 2006 among observations, regional and global applications of process-based terrestrial biosphere models, and atmospheric inversion models. Syntheses of flux observations and inversion models indicate that the annual exchange of CO2 between Arctic tundra and the atmosphere has large uncertainties that cannot be distinguished from neutral balance. The mean estimate from an ensemble of process-based model simulations suggests that Arctic tundra has acted as a sink for atmospheric CO2 in recent decades, but based on the uncertainty estimates it cannot be determined with confidence whether these ecosystems represent a weak or a strong sink. Tundra was 0.6 A degrees C warmer in the 2000s compared to the 1990s. The central estimates of the observations, process-based models, and inversion models each identify stronger sinks in the 2000s compared with the 1990s. Some of the process models indicate that this occurred because net primary production increased more in response to warming than heterotrophic respiration. Similarly, the observations and the applications of regional process-based models suggest that CH4 emissions from Arctic tundra have increased from the 1990s to 2000s because of the sensitivity of CH4 emissions to warmer temperatures. Based on our analyses of the estimates from observations, process-based models, and inversion models, we estimate that Arctic tundra was a sink for atmospheric CO2 of 110 Tg C yr(-1) (uncertainty between a sink of 291 Tg C yr(-1) and a source of 80 Tg C yr(-1)) and a source of CH4 to the atmosphere of 19 Tg C yr(-1) (uncertainty between sources of 8 and 29 Tg C yr(-1)). The suite of analyses conducted in this study indicate that it is important to reduce uncertainties in the observations, process-based models, and inversions in order to better understand the degree to which Arctic tundra is influencing atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations. The reduction of uncertainties can be accomplished through (1) the strategic placement of more CO2 and CH4 monitoring stations to reduce uncertainties in inversions, (2) improved observation networks of ground-based measurements of CO2 and CH4 exchange to understand exchange in response to disturbance and across gradients of climatic and hydrological variability, and (3) the effective transfer of information from enhanced observation networks into process-based models to improve the simulation of CO2 and CH4 exchange from Arctic tundra to the atmosphere.
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| 10. |
- Qiu, Chunjing, et al.
(författare)
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ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales
- 2018
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Ingår i: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11:2, s. 497-519
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Peatlands store substantial amounts of carbon and are vulnerable to climate change. We present a modified version of the Organising Carbon and Hydrology In Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) land surface model for simulating the hydrology, surface energy, and CO2 fluxes of peatlands on daily to annual timescales. The model includes a separate soil tile in each 0.5° grid cell, defined from a global peatland map and identified with peat-specific soil hydraulic properties. Runoff from non-peat vegetation within a grid cell containing a fraction of peat is routed to this peat soil tile, which maintains shallow water tables. The water table position separates oxic from anoxic decomposition. The model was evaluated against eddy-covariance (EC) observations from 30 northern peatland sites, with the maximum rate of carboxylation (Vcmax) being optimized at each site. Regarding short-term day-to-day variations, the model performance was good for gross primary production (GPP) (r2 Combining double low line 0.76; Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency, MEF Combining double low line 0.76) and ecosystem respiration (ER, r2 Combining double low line 0.78, MEF Combining double low line 0.75), with lesser accuracy for latent heat fluxes (LE, r2 Combining double low line 0.42, MEF Combining double low line 0.14) and and net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE, r2 Combining double low line 0.38, MEF Combining double low line 0.26). Seasonal variations in GPP, ER, NEE, and energy fluxes on monthly scales showed moderate to high r2 values (0.57-0.86). For spatial across-site gradients of annual mean GPP, ER, NEE, and LE, r2 values of 0.93, 0.89, 0.27, and 0.71 were achieved, respectively. Water table (WT) variation was not well predicted (r2<0.1), likely due to the uncertain water input to the peat from surrounding areas. However, the poor performance of WT simulation did not greatly affect predictions of ER and NEE. We found a significant relationship between optimized Vcmax and latitude (temperature), which better reflects the spatial gradients of annual NEE than using an average Vcmax value.
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| 11. |
- Virkkala, Anna Maria, et al.
(författare)
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Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain : Regional patterns and uncertainties
- 2021
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 27:17, s. 4040-4059
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m−2 yr−1). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.
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| 12. |
- Watts, J. D., et al.
(författare)
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A satellite data driven biophysical modeling approach for estimating northern peatland and tundra CO2 and CH4 fluxes
- 2014
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4189. ; 11:7, s. 1961-1980
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The northern terrestrial net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) is contingent on inputs from vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP) to offset the ecosystem respiration (R-eco) of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions, but an effective framework to monitor the regional Arctic NECB is lacking. We modified a terrestrial carbon flux (TCF) model developed for satellite remote sensing applications to evaluate wetland CO2 and CH4 fluxes over pan-Arctic eddy covariance (EC) flux tower sites. The TCF model estimates GPP, CO2 and CH4 emissions using in situ or remote sensing and reanalysis-based climate data as inputs. The TCF model simulations using in situ data explained >70% of the r(2) variability in the 8 day cumulative EC measured fluxes. Model simulations using coarser satellite (MODIS) and reanalysis (MERRA) Records accounted for approximately 69% and 75% of the respective r(2) variability in the tower CO2 and CH4 records, with corresponding RMSE uncertainties of <= 1.3 gCm(-2) d(-1) (CO2) and 18.2 mg Cm-2 d(-1) (CH4). Although the estimated annual CH4 emissions were small (<18 gCm(-2) yr(-1)) relative to R-eco (>180 gCm(-2) yr(-1)), they reduced the across-site NECB by 23% and contributed to a global warming potential of approximately 165 +/- 128 gCO(2)eqm(-2) yr(-1) when considered over a 100 year time span. This model evaluation indi-cates a strong potential for using the TCF model approach to document landscape-scale variability in CO2 and CH4 fluxes, and to estimate the NECB for northern peatland and tundra ecosystems.
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| 13. |
- Watts, Jennifer D., et al.
(författare)
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Carbon uptake in Eurasian boreal forests dominates the high-latitude net ecosystem carbon budget
- 2023
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Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 29:7, s. 1870-1889
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Arctic-boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic-boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003–2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE; Reco − GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH4) emissions for the Arctic-boreal zone using a satellite data-driven process-model for northern ecosystems (TCFM-Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM-Arctic to obtain daily 1-km2 flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan-Arctic-boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of −850 Tg CO2-C year−1. Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH4 emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH4) were estimated at 35 Tg CH4-C year−1. Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high-latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site-to-regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change.
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