| 1. |
- Albertus, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Land Inequality and Rural Unrest : Theory and Evidence from Brazil
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 62:3, s. 557-596
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- What is the relationship between landholding inequality and rural unrest? And why does land reform that ostensibly addresses rural grievances sometimes exacerbate unrest? We advance the understanding of these longstanding questions by shifting the emphasis from how landholding inequality fuels rural grievances to how it captures the collective action capacity of landowners. Using municipal-level data from Brazil’s large land reform program from 1988 to 2013, we demonstrate that the relationship between landholding inequality and unrest is conditional. Isolated threats to landed elites in the form of land invasions are difficult to repel, generating a positive relationship between landholding inequality and one-off land invasions. By contrast, sustained, broader local threats triggered by nearby land reforms catalyze landowner organization to repel land invasions, leading to the reverse relationship. The findings provide a novel answer for why a straightforward link between land inequality and rural unrest is elusive and may generalize to a broad range of similar cases.
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| 2. |
- Bara, Corinne, 1981-
(författare)
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Legacies of Violence : Conflict-specific Capital and the Postconflict Diffusion of Civil War
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 62:9, s. 1991-2016
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Civil wars have a tendency to spread across borders. In several instances of conflict diffusion, however, conflicts spread well after their cessation at home. Whereas existing diffusion research has not attached much importance to this observation, I argue that these conflicts are instances of a broader pattern of postconflict diffusion. Wars are particularly prone to spread after termination because the end of fighting generates a surplus of weapons, combatants, and rebel leaders whose fortunes are tied to the continuation of violence. Some of these resources circulate throughout the region via the small arms trade and through transnational rebel networks, making this a time at which it should be easier for nonstate groups in the neighborhood to build a capable rebel army. The results from two complementary statistical tests on global conflict data provide strong support for such a postconflict diffusion effect.
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| 3. |
- Butcher, Charles, et al.
(författare)
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Manufacturing Dissent : Modernization and the Onset of Major Nonviolent Resistance Campaigns
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - Thousand Oaks : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 60:2, s. 311-339
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A growing research field examines the conditions under which major nonviolent resistance campaigns—that is, popular nonviolent uprisings for regime or territorial change—are successful. Why these campaigns emerge in the first place is less well understood. We argue that extensive social networks that are economically interdependent with the state make strategic nonviolence more feasible. These networks are larger and more powerful in states whose economies rely upon organized labor. Global quantitative analysis of the onset of violent and nonviolent campaigns from 1960 to 2006 (NAVCO), and major protest events in Africa from 1990 to 2009 (SCAD) shows that the likelihood of nonviolent conflict onset increases with the proportion of manufacturing to gross domestic product. This study points to a link between modernization and social conflict, a link that has been often hypothesized, but, hitherto, unsupported by empirical studies.
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| 4. |
- Eck, Kristine
(författare)
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Repression by Proxy : How Military Purges and Insurgency Impact the Delegation of Coercion
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 59:5, s. 924-946
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Why do regimes delegate authority over a territory to nonstate militias, in effect voluntarily sacrificing their monopoly over the use of violence? This article argues that two factors increase the probability of states delegating control to a proxy militia, namely, military purges and armed conflict. Military purges disrupt intelligence-gathering structures and the organizational capacity of the military. To counteract this disruption, military leaders subcontract the task of control and repression to allied militias that have the local intelligence skills necessary to manage the civilian population. This argument is conditioned by whether the state faces an armed insurgency in a given region since intelligence, control, and repression are needed most where the state is being challenged. This hypothesis is tested on unique data for all subnational regions within Myanmar during the period 1962 to 2010 and finds that proxy militias are more likely to be raised in conflict areas after military purges.
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| 5. |
- Hall, Jonathan, 1979-
(författare)
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Are Migrants More Extreme Than Locals After War? Evidence From A Simultaneous Survey of Migrants in Sweden and Locals in Bosnia
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - Thousand Oaks : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 60:1, s. 89-117
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Little is known about the attitudes of migrant populations originating from countries affected by conflict. This article examines a key assumption in the literature: that migrants harbor more conflictive attitudes than locals after war. Until now, we simply lacked the micro-level data necessary to examine migrant attitudes directly. Rather than relying on indirect evidence, I analyze new data from simultaneous surveys conducted in Sweden and Bosnia in 2010. As a whole, the empirical analysis supports the article’s novel theoretical approach. Under certain conditions, migration may promote inclusive and reconciliatory attitudes by improving access to coping resources and providing an exit from detrimental wartime and postwar conditions in origins countries
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| 6. |
- Hall, Jonathan, 1979-
(författare)
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Integration of Refugees and Support for the Ethos of Conflict
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 62:9, s. 2040-2067
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Following forced expulsion and campaigns of ethnic cleansing, substantial portions of national communities affected by conflict no longer live within the boundaries of the state. Nevertheless, existing wartime and postwar public opinion research is largely confined to countries directly affected by conflict. As a result, current research may overlook important war-affected populations and processes shaping their opinions. I address this problem by examining the question: does incorporation in settlement countries reduce support for conflict ideology? Examining this question requires new microdata. I examine the results of a large-scale survey of ex-Yugoslavs in Sweden. The findings suggest that incorporation undermines support for conflict ideology by increasing the socioeconomic security and social identity complexity of migrants. This has important implications for multiculturalism policies in the context of the current global migration crisis.
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| 7. |
- Hegre, Håvard, 1964-, et al.
(författare)
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Governance and Conflict Relapse
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - Thousand Oaks : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 59:6, s. 984-1016
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many conflict studies regard formal democratic institutions as states’ most important vehicle to reduce deprivation-motivated armed conflict against their governments. We argue that the wider concept of good governance—the extent to which policy making and implementation benefit the population at large—is better suited to analyze deprivation-based conflict. The article shows that the risk of conflict in countries characterized by good governance drops rapidly after a conflict has ended or after independence. In countries with poor governance, this process takes much longer. Hence, improving governance is important to reduce the incidence of conflict. We also decompose the effect of good governance into what can be explained by formal democratic institutions and less formal aspects of governance, and into what comes from economic development and what is due to how well countries are governed. We find that informal aspects of good governance to be at least as important as formal institutions in preventing conflict and that good governance has a clear effect over and beyond economic development.
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| 8. |
- Hultman, Lisa, 1978-, et al.
(författare)
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Successful or Counterproductive Coercion? The Effect of International Sanctions on Conflict Intensity
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 61:6, s. 1315-1339
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite the frequent use of economic and military-specific sanctions against countries affected by civil conflicts, little is known about the possible impact that these coercive tools have on conflict dynamics. This article examines how threats and imposition of international sanctions affect the intensity of civil conflict violence. We formulate and test two competing views on the possible effect of economic and military-specific sanctions on conflict dynamics by combining data on fatalities in battle-related violence in all internal armed conflicts in Africa from 1989 to 2005 with data on economic sanctions and arms embargoes. The results indicate that threats of economic sanction and arms embargo are likely to increase the intensity of conflict violence. Similarly, imposed economic sanctions are likely to contribute to the escalation of conflict violence. Imposed arms embargoes, on the other hand, are likely to reduce conflict violence. We conclude that international sanctions appear to be counterproductive policy tools in mitigating the human cost of civil conflicts unless they are in the form of imposed arms embargoes attempting to limit the military capacity of the warring parties.
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| 9. |
- Johansson, Karin, et al.
(författare)
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UN Peacekeeping and Protection from Sexual Violence
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 63:7, s. 1656-1681
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent years have seen an increased emphasis on both protection of civilians and the problem of sexual violence. We explore the impact of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping on the occurrence of wartime sexual violence. Acknowledging the difficulty in reducing sexual violence, we propose two conditions under which peacekeepers are more likely to be successful: when the mission has a protection mandate and when the conflict actors exercise a high level of control over their forces. We find that the ability of peacekeepers to reduce sexual violence in general is weak. Only police within protection missions reduces the risk of sexual violence by rebels. However, when the actors exercise control, the number of peacekeepers is associated with a lower risk of sexual violence by both governments and rebels. We conclude that dealing with sexual violence by weak and fragmented actors is a challenging task beyond the current capacity of UN peacekeeping.
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| 10. |
- Joshi, Madhav, et al.
(författare)
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Sequencing the Peace How the Order of Peace Agreement Implementation Can Reduce the Destabilizing Effects of Post-accord Elections
- 2017
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 61:1, s. 4-28
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Once a set of civil war actors reach a final peace agreement, a number of different implementation sequences are possible as the negotiated provisions are put into practice. We focus on a key but threatening stepping stone in the post-accord period-the holding of the first post-accord election-which has the capacity to be a stabilizing or destabilizing force. We identify effective accommodation provisions that civil war actors can negotiate and implement before the first post-accord election to reduce the chances of renewed violence. Utilizing new longitudinal data on the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements between 1989 and 2012 and a series of survival models, we find that if the first post-accord election is preceded by the implementation of accommodation measures, elections can have a peace-promoting effect. However, in the absence of preelection accommodation measures, elections are much more likely to be followed by peace failure.
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| 11. |
- Otto, Sabine
(författare)
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The Grass Is Always Greener? : Armed Group Side Switching in Civil Wars
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 62:7, s. 1459-1488
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Why do armed groups switch sides during civil wars? Most theories of conflict assume that armed groups have a fixed alignment with the government throughout their entire life span, ignoring the fact that armed groups switch between fighting on behalf of and against the government. In this article, I propose a theoretical framework that integrates armed groups’ willingness to switch sides and their capacity to do so. Armed groups are motivated to switch sides if it contributes to maintaining or improving organizational objectives. I therefore expect armed groups to switch sides as the number of other armed groups with the same alignment increases and when the state is weak. I also argue that armed groups require the capacity to switch sides in order to overcome the internal coordination problem. I propose that non-state armed actors that are the product of prior splintering are more homogeneous and cohesive than other groups. Hence, they are in a better position to attempt to switch sides. I test the propositions using a novel data set, the History of Armed Actors Dataset, containing data on when and where armed groups have switched sides during civil wars between 1989 and 2007. The results reveal that both incentives and capacity influence side switching.
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| 12. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Disputes over the Divine : Introducing the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) data, 1975–2015
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 62:5, s. 1127-1148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This article introduces the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) data, 1975 to 2015, which is a new data set suitable for analyzing the causes, dynamics, and resolution of religious conflicts. It contains information about key religious dimensions of conflicts: whether the issue at stake is religious, the actors’ religious identity, and fine-grained data about the type and salience of religious claims. The article presents the major features of the data set and describes patterns and trends that shed new light on religious conflicts, for example, by demonstrating that conflicts over Islamist claims have become more prevalent. We also illustrate the utility of the data. For instance, we show that there is great variation in lethality across conflicts with different types of Islamist claims, thereby offering a more nuanced understanding of the deadliness of religious conflicts. RELAC should be a valuable resource for scholars, examining religious dimensions of intrastate armed conflicts.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Wig, Tore, et al.
(författare)
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Cues To Coup Plotters: Elections as Coup Triggers in Dictatorships
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 60:5, s. 787-812
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A large proportion of coup attempts in autocracies occur in the aftermath of elections, yet little systematic research exists on the topic. Drawing on recent literature on elections in autocracies, we present an argument to explain postelection coups. While we recognize that electoral institutions have the potential to stabilize autocracies, we illustrate that the election event can spark instability when incumbents reveal electoral weakness. Electoral outcomes—in the form of vote shares and opposition reactions—are signals containing information about the strength of the opposition, and indirectly about the likelihood of a successful full-scale revolution that would compromise the privileged positions of regime elites. In these situations, coups are likely to be initiated to avoid a revolution, either by serving as concessions to the opposition or by facilitating increased repression. We perform a large-N study that supports our argument, significantly nuancing the claim that elections stabilize autocracies.
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