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Numrering	Referens	Omslagsbild	Hitta
1.	Albertus, Michael, et al. (författare) Land Inequality and Rural Unrest : Theory and Evidence from Brazil 2018 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 62:3, s. 557-596 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract What is the relationship between landholding inequality and rural unrest? And why does land reform that ostensibly addresses rural grievances sometimes exacerbate unrest? We advance the understanding of these longstanding questions by shifting the emphasis from how landholding inequality fuels rural grievances to how it captures the collective action capacity of landowners. Using municipal-level data from Brazil’s large land reform program from 1988 to 2013, we demonstrate that the relationship between landholding inequality and unrest is conditional. Isolated threats to landed elites in the form of land invasions are difficult to repel, generating a positive relationship between landholding inequality and one-off land invasions. By contrast, sustained, broader local threats triggered by nearby land reforms catalyze landowner organization to repel land invasions, leading to the reverse relationship. The findings provide a novel answer for why a straightforward link between land inequality and rural unrest is elusive and may generalize to a broad range of similar cases.
2.	Albin, Cecilia, et al. (författare) Equality matters : Negotiating an end to civil wars 2012 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 56:2, s. 155-182 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This article explores relationships between procedural justice (PJ) in the negotiation process, distributive justice (DJ) in the terms of negotiated agreements, and their durability in cases of civil war. Adherence to PJ principles was found to correlate strongly with agreements based specifically on the DJ principle of equality. Agreements were also found to be more durable when based on equality, but not when based on other DJ principles. The equality principle accounted for the relationship between PJ and durability irrespective of differences between the parties in power. Further examination suggested that two types of equality in particular-equal treatment and equal shares-were associated with forward-looking agreements and high durability. The findings suggest that durability is served by including equality in the terms of agreements, and that PJ helps (but does not guarantee) achieving such agreements.
3.	Bara, Corinne, 1981- (författare) Legacies of Violence : Conflict-specific Capital and the Postconflict Diffusion of Civil War 2018 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 62:9, s. 1991-2016 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Civil wars have a tendency to spread across borders. In several instances of conflict diffusion, however, conflicts spread well after their cessation at home. Whereas existing diffusion research has not attached much importance to this observation, I argue that these conflicts are instances of a broader pattern of postconflict diffusion. Wars are particularly prone to spread after termination because the end of fighting generates a surplus of weapons, combatants, and rebel leaders whose fortunes are tied to the continuation of violence. Some of these resources circulate throughout the region via the small arms trade and through transnational rebel networks, making this a time at which it should be easier for nonstate groups in the neighborhood to build a capable rebel army. The results from two complementary statistical tests on global conflict data provide strong support for such a postconflict diffusion effect.
4.	Bara, Corinne, 1981-, et al. (författare) Your Reputation Precedes You : Ceasefires and Cooperative Credibility During Civil Conflict 2023 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 67:7-8, s. 1325-1349 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract How does the state's behavior in negotiations with one non-state group influence the behavior of other non-state actors? We argue that the dynamics of different conflicts within the same country are interdependent, and that a state develops a reputation through its interactions with each conflict party. This reputation provides a valuable source of information that other groups use to judge the state's cooperative intentions. When a state develops a reputation for cooperation, this increases the likelihood of (indirect) reciprocation from other groups. More specifically, we argue that when states enter into (and honor) a ceasefire with one rebel group, they demonstrate a credible reputation for cooperation. A credible reputation for cooperation, we posit, increases the likelihood that other conflict parties enter into ceasefires with the state, or that they de-escalate their military activities. We test our claims using the new civil conflict ceasefire dataset and find support for our argument.
5.	Baumgartner, Thomas, et al. (författare) Relational Control : The Human Struccturing of Cooperation and Conflict 1975 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 19 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
6.	Brosché, Johan, 1978-, et al. (författare) What They Are Fighting For : Introducing the UCDP Conflict Issues Dataset 2023 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Although conflict issues – the stated goals of actors engaged in conflict – hold a privileged position in many theoretical explanations of the occurrence, dynamics, and resolution of civil war, global issue data are scarce beyond datasets that focus on specific thematic areas. This article aims to bring issues into the forefront of civil war scholarship by presenting the UCDP Conflict Issue Dataset (CID). This global yearly dataset contains 14 832 conflict issues – divided, at the most disaggregated level, into 120 sub-categories – raised by armed non-state groups involved in intrastate armed conflict in 1989-2017. By bringing issues back in, the UCDP CID provides opportunities to reevaluate several central questions about the onset, duration, intensity, and resolution of civil war.
7.	Brounéus, Karen (författare) The Trauma of Truth Telling : Effects of Witnessing in the Rwandan Gacaca Courts on Psychological Health 2010 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 54:3, s. 408-437 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Truth telling has come to play a pivotal role in postconflict reconciliation processes around the world. A common claim is that truth telling is healing and will lead to reconciliation. The present study applies recent psychological research to this issue by examining whether witnessing in the gacaca, the Rwandan village tribunals for truth and reconciliation after the 1994 genocide, was beneficial for psychological health. The results from the multistage, stratified cluster random survey of 1,200 Rwandans demonstrate that gacaca witnesses suffer from higher levels of depression and PTSD than do nonwitnesses, also when controlling for important predictors of psychological ill health. Furthermore, longer exposure to truth telling has not lowered the levels of psychological ill health, nor has the prevalence of depression and PTSD decreased over time. This study strongly challenges the claim that truth telling is healing and presents a novel understanding of the complexity of truth-telling processes in postconflict peace building.
8.	Butcher, Charles, et al. (författare) Manufacturing Dissent : Modernization and the Onset of Major Nonviolent Resistance Campaigns 2016 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - Thousand Oaks : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 60:2, s. 311-339 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract A growing research field examines the conditions under which major nonviolent resistance campaigns—that is, popular nonviolent uprisings for regime or territorial change—are successful. Why these campaigns emerge in the first place is less well understood. We argue that extensive social networks that are economically interdependent with the state make strategic nonviolence more feasible. These networks are larger and more powerful in states whose economies rely upon organized labor. Global quantitative analysis of the onset of violent and nonviolent campaigns from 1960 to 2006 (NAVCO), and major protest events in Africa from 1990 to 2009 (SCAD) shows that the likelihood of nonviolent conflict onset increases with the proportion of manufacturing to gross domestic product. This study points to a link between modernization and social conflict, a link that has been often hypothesized, but, hitherto, unsupported by empirical studies.
9.	Clayton, Govinda, et al. (författare) Introducing the ETH/PRIO Civil Conflict Ceasefire Dataset 2023 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 67:7-8, s. 1430-1451 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This article introduces the Civil Conflict CeaseFire (CF) dataset. The CF data covers all ceasefires in civil conflict between 1989 and 2020, including multilateral, bilateral and unilateral arrangements, ranging from verbal arrangements to detailed written agreements. In total, the CF data includes 2202 ceasefires across 66 countries and 109 civil conflicts. The data feature information on the actors involved in the ceasefire, and the class, purpose, coverage, and end date of the ceasefire. The CF data provide an empirical basis to assess the conditions that give rise to ceasefires, how ceasefires affect the dynamics of conflict, and the role of a ceasefire in the peace process. This article presents the rationale underlying the data collection, the coding rules and procedures, and how this data can be used for analysis.
10.	Dafoe, Allan, et al. (författare) Coercion and Provocation 2021 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 65:2-3, s. 372-402 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Threats and force, by increasing expected costs, should reduce the target's resolve. However, they often seem to increase resolve. We label this phenomenon provocation. We review instances of apparent provocation in interstate relations and offer a theory based on the logic of reputation and honor. We also consider alternative explanations: confounding or mis-imputation of resolve; revelation of information, character, or capabilities; or generalized sunk cost reasoning. Using survey experiments, we systematically evaluate whether provocation exists and what may account for it. We employ design-based causal inference techniques-a hypothetical natural experiment, a placebo treatment, and ruling out mediators-to evaluate our key hypotheses. We find strong evidence of provocation and suggestive evidence that it arises from considerations of honor, vengeance, and reputation. Our experimental design minimizes the risk that this result arises from our alternative explanations.
11.	Di Salvatore, J., et al. (författare) Introducing the Peacekeeping Mandates (PEMA) Dataset 2022 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 66:4-5, s. 924-951 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Research on UN peacekeeping operations has established that operations' size and composition affect peacekeeping success. However, we lack systematic data for evaluating whether variation in tasks assigned to UN peacekeeping mandates matters and what explains different configurations of mandated tasks in the first place. Drawing on UN Security Council resolutions that establish, extend, or revise mandates of 27 UN peacekeeping operations in Africa in the 1991-2017 period, the Peacekeeping Mandates (PEMA) dataset fills this gap. It records 41 distinct tasks, ranging from disarmament to reconciliation and electoral support. For each task, the PEMA dataset also distinguishes between three modalities of engagement (monitoring, assisting, and securing) and whether the task is requested or merely encouraged. To illustrate the usefulness of our data, we re-examine Hultman, Kathman, and Shannon's (2013) analysis of operations' ability to protect civilians. Our results show that host governments and rebel groups respond differently to civilian protection mandates.
12.	Eck, Kristine, 1978-, et al. (författare) Policing and Political Violence 2021 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 65:10, s. 1641-1656 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The police are often key actors in conflict processes, yet there is little research on their role in the production of political violence. Previous research provides us with a limited understanding of the part the police play in preventing or mitigating the onset or escalation of conflict, in patterns of repression and resistance during conflict, and in the durability of peace after conflicts are resolved. By unpacking the role of state security actors and asking how the state assigns tasks among them—as well as the consequences of these decisions—we generate new research paths for scholars of conflict and policing. We review existing research in the field, highlighting recent findings, including those from the articles in this special issue. We conclude by arguing that the fields of policing and conflict research have much to gain from each other and by discussing future directions for policing research in conflict studies.
13.	Eck, Kristine (författare) Repression by Proxy : How Military Purges and Insurgency Impact the Delegation of Coercion 2015 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 59:5, s. 924-946 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Why do regimes delegate authority over a territory to nonstate militias, in effect voluntarily sacrificing their monopoly over the use of violence? This article argues that two factors increase the probability of states delegating control to a proxy militia, namely, military purges and armed conflict. Military purges disrupt intelligence-gathering structures and the organizational capacity of the military. To counteract this disruption, military leaders subcontract the task of control and repression to allied militias that have the local intelligence skills necessary to manage the civilian population. This argument is conditioned by whether the state faces an armed insurgency in a given region since intelligence, control, and repression are needed most where the state is being challenged. This hypothesis is tested on unique data for all subnational regions within Myanmar during the period 1962 to 2010 and finds that proxy militias are more likely to be raised in conflict areas after military purges.
14.	Fjelde, Hanne, 1978-, et al. (författare) Introducing the Deadly Electoral Conflict Dataset (DECO) 2022 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 66:1, s. 162-185 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This article introduces the Deadly Electoral Conflict dataset (DECO): a global, georeferenced event dataset on electoral violence with lethal outcomes from 1989 to 2017. DECO allows for empirical evaluation of theories relating to the timing, location, and dynamics of deadly electoral violence. By clearly distinguishing electoral violence from related (and sometimes concurrent) instances of organized violence, DECO is particularly suitable for investigating how election-related violence is connected to other forms of violent political contention. In the article, we present the theoretical and methodological underpinnings of the data collection and discuss empirical patterns that emerge in DECO. We also demonstrate one potential use of DECO by examining the association between United Nations peacekeeping forces and the prevalence of deadly electoral violence in conflict-affected countries.
15.	Fjelde, Hanne, et al. (författare) Rebels against Rebels : Explaining Violence between Rebel Groups 2012 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 56:4, s. 604-628 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Rebel groups that confront the government frequently become engaged in fierce and violent struggles with other groups. Why does a rebel group who is already fighting with the government become engaged in yet another struggle, thereby sacrificing scarce resources in the fight against other rebel groups? This article addresses this puzzle by providing the first global study on the determinants of interrebel violence. The authors argue that this violence should be understood as a means to secure material resources and political leverage that can help the group prevail in the conflict with the government. The quantitative analysis builds on new data on armed conflict between nonstate actors, 1989-2007. The results show that interrebel conflict is more likely when the rebel group fights in an area with drug cultivation, when the group is in control of territory beyond government reach, when the group is either militarily strong or weak in relation to other rebels, and where state authority is weak.
16.	Fjelde, Hanne, et al. (författare) Weakening the Enemy : A Disaggregated Study of Violence against Civilians in Africa 2014 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 58:7, s. 1230-1257 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract While case-based narratives from civil wars often stress the ethnic dimension of civilian atrocities, cross-national studies have found limited evidence in support of such contentions. Addressing this debate, we argue that warring actors often use ethnic affiliation to identify groups of suspected enemy supporters when individual wartime affiliations are not known. Since warring actors depend on their civilian constituencies for support, collective targeting of the enemy's co-ethnics becomes a strategy for weakening the enemy's capacity. Armed actors are thus more likely to engage in civilian abuse in areas where the enemy's ethnic constituency resides. To examine this argument, we combine new georeferenced event data on violence against civilians in African conflicts, 1989-2009, with spatial data on the location of the warring actors' ethnic constituencies. The analysis shows that the number of civilians killed by both governments and rebel groups is higher in areas inhabited by the enemy's ethnic constituency.
17.	Gibler, Douglas M., et al. (författare) The Militarized Interstate Confrontation Dataset, 1816-2014 2024 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 68:2-3, s. 562-586 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract We use this article to introduce the Militarized Interstate Confrontation (MIC) dataset, 1816-2014—a new dataset for international conflict with a host of innovative features. The MIC data corrects thousands of errors in existing interstate conflict data and provides fatality ranges for all conflicts, with meaningful fatality estimates and no missing fatality values. Thus, the MIC data fixes missing data problems that have precluded researchers from analyzing escalation and related issues because of the lack of integrated conflict and war data. We also identify and distribute separate datasets for state-versus-citizen actions that are protest-dependent. These are attacks on shipping, fishing boats, and rebels, which were previously included in the data because the sovereign of those private citizens protested. We discuss our systematic search for new conflict cases and the 108 new conflicts we found, and we provide analyses and summaries that demonstrate the usefulness of our MIC data. Finally, we use our new data to create the first ever dataset of truly dyadic, directed dyad-year data, with highest actions and fatalities that vary appropriately within conflicts by both year and dyad. We believe these datasets will be useful for a host of studies but especially those interested in how conflicts evolve over time.
18.	Hall, Jonathan, 1979- (författare) Are Migrants More Extreme Than Locals After War? Evidence From A Simultaneous Survey of Migrants in Sweden and Locals in Bosnia 2016 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - Thousand Oaks : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 60:1, s. 89-117 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Little is known about the attitudes of migrant populations originating from countries affected by conflict. This article examines a key assumption in the literature: that migrants harbor more conflictive attitudes than locals after war. Until now, we simply lacked the micro-level data necessary to examine migrant attitudes directly. Rather than relying on indirect evidence, I analyze new data from simultaneous surveys conducted in Sweden and Bosnia in 2010. As a whole, the empirical analysis supports the article’s novel theoretical approach. Under certain conditions, migration may promote inclusive and reconciliatory attitudes by improving access to coping resources and providing an exit from detrimental wartime and postwar conditions in origins countries
19.	Hall, Jonathan, 1979- (författare) Integration of Refugees and Support for the Ethos of Conflict 2018 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 62:9, s. 2040-2067 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Following forced expulsion and campaigns of ethnic cleansing, substantial portions of national communities affected by conflict no longer live within the boundaries of the state. Nevertheless, existing wartime and postwar public opinion research is largely confined to countries directly affected by conflict. As a result, current research may overlook important war-affected populations and processes shaping their opinions. I address this problem by examining the question: does incorporation in settlement countries reduce support for conflict ideology? Examining this question requires new microdata. I examine the results of a large-scale survey of ex-Yugoslavs in Sweden. The findings suggest that incorporation undermines support for conflict ideology by increasing the socioeconomic security and social identity complexity of migrants. This has important implications for multiculturalism policies in the context of the current global migration crisis.
20.	Hall, Jonathan, 1979-, et al. (författare) The Impact of War Exposure on Morality : Evidence From the Battle of Mosul 2023 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The Battle of Mosul (2016–2017) was one of the most grueling urban warfare campaigns in recent memory. The fighting quickly concentrated in West Mosul, where civilians prevented by the Islamic State from leaving their homes experienced airstrikes and indiscriminate shelling by government forces. Utilizing the as-if-randomness of severe damage or destruction of people’s homes, this paper examines the impact of war exposure on the endorsement of moral foundations among a large and diverse sample of Mosul residents (N = 1027). Home damage increased binding morality but had a larger impact on individualizing morality, heightening concerns about fairness and protection from harm. A survey experiment in which the sectarian identity of the target was randomly assigned further revealed a strong association between individualizing morality and parochial altruism. Challenging conventional wisdom, both individualizing and binding morality reinforce group cohesion in ways that are functionally adaptive and responsive to the damage wrought by war.
21.	Hatz, Sophia, et al. (författare) Coercion and Provocation Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Threats and force, by increasing expected costs, should reduce the target’s resolve. How- ever, they often seem to increase resolve. We label this phenomenon provocation. We re- view instances of apparent provocation in interstate relations and offer a theory based on the logic of reputation and honor. We also consider alternative explanations: confounding or mis- imputation of resolve, revelation of information, character, or capabilities, or generalized sunk cost reasoning. Using survey experiments we systematically evaluate whether provocation ex- ists and what may account for it. We employ design-based causal inference techniques — a hypothetical natural experiment, a placebo treatment, and ruling out mediators — to evalu- ate our key hypotheses. We find strong evidence of provocation, and suggestive evidence that it arises from considerations of honor, vengeance, and reputation. Our experimental design minimizes the risk that this result arises from our alternative explanations.
22.	Hegre, Håvard, 1964-, et al. (författare) Civil Society and the Democratic Peace 2020 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 64:1, s. 32-62 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract We theorize that three distinct structures of democratic constraint explain why more democratic dyads do not engage in military conflict with each other. We build on earlier theories that focused on electoral and horizontal accountability. We add a new dimension-the social accountability provided by an active civil society. Using several new measures from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data set, we stringently test these explanations. We find social accountability to be the strongest and most consistent predictor of nonbelligerence in dyads, that horizontal accountability is still important, but that the independent role of electoral accountability has been somewhat overstated. However, we do find that social and electoral accountability work strongly together, to make for an even greater effect. The finding is robust to a range of specifications and in the face of controls for contending theories that challenge the democratic peace (e.g., the capitalist and territorial peace theories).
23.	Hegre, Håvard, 1964-, et al. (författare) Governance and Conflict Relapse 2015 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - Thousand Oaks : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 59:6, s. 984-1016 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Many conflict studies regard formal democratic institutions as states’ most important vehicle to reduce deprivation-motivated armed conflict against their governments. We argue that the wider concept of good governance—the extent to which policy making and implementation benefit the population at large—is better suited to analyze deprivation-based conflict. The article shows that the risk of conflict in countries characterized by good governance drops rapidly after a conflict has ended or after independence. In countries with poor governance, this process takes much longer. Hence, improving governance is important to reduce the incidence of conflict. We also decompose the effect of good governance into what can be explained by formal democratic institutions and less formal aspects of governance, and into what comes from economic development and what is due to how well countries are governed. We find that informal aspects of good governance to be at least as important as formal institutions in preventing conflict and that good governance has a clear effect over and beyond economic development.
24.	Hellmüller, Sara, et al. (författare) What is in a Mandate? Introducing the UN Peace Mission Mandates Dataset 2024 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 68:1, s. 166-192 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract UN peace missions are constantly evolving. Yet, we lack a detailed understanding of the shifting types and objectives of peace missions beyond broad categorizations that distinguish for instance between observer, traditional, multidimensional, and peace enforcement missions. To address this gap, we present the UN Peace Mission Mandates (UNPMM) dataset. With global coverage, 30 years of data between 1991 and 2020, a broad scope that includes peacekeeping and political missions, and information on 41 mandate tasks, the UNPMM represents one of the most detailed and up-to-date datasets on UN peace mission mandates. We use it to highlight how mission types, objectives, and specific tasks have changed since the end of the Cold War, and to analyze what factors influence the kind of missions the UN is willing to authorize. The descriptive statistics and empirical analysis reaffirm the need for a greater disaggregation of data on UN peace missions and their mandates.
25.	Hultman, Lisa, 1978-, et al. (författare) Successful or Counterproductive Coercion? The Effect of International Sanctions on Conflict Intensity 2017 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 61:6, s. 1315-1339 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Despite the frequent use of economic and military-specific sanctions against countries affected by civil conflicts, little is known about the possible impact that these coercive tools have on conflict dynamics. This article examines how threats and imposition of international sanctions affect the intensity of civil conflict violence. We formulate and test two competing views on the possible effect of economic and military-specific sanctions on conflict dynamics by combining data on fatalities in battle-related violence in all internal armed conflicts in Africa from 1989 to 2005 with data on economic sanctions and arms embargoes. The results indicate that threats of economic sanction and arms embargo are likely to increase the intensity of conflict violence. Similarly, imposed economic sanctions are likely to contribute to the escalation of conflict violence. Imposed arms embargoes, on the other hand, are likely to reduce conflict violence. We conclude that international sanctions appear to be counterproductive policy tools in mitigating the human cost of civil conflicts unless they are in the form of imposed arms embargoes attempting to limit the military capacity of the warring parties.
26.	Johansson, Karin, et al. (författare) UN Peacekeeping and Protection from Sexual Violence 2019 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 63:7, s. 1656-1681 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Recent years have seen an increased emphasis on both protection of civilians and the problem of sexual violence. We explore the impact of United Nations (UN) peacekeeping on the occurrence of wartime sexual violence. Acknowledging the difficulty in reducing sexual violence, we propose two conditions under which peacekeepers are more likely to be successful: when the mission has a protection mandate and when the conflict actors exercise a high level of control over their forces. We find that the ability of peacekeepers to reduce sexual violence in general is weak. Only police within protection missions reduces the risk of sexual violence by rebels. However, when the actors exercise control, the number of peacekeepers is associated with a lower risk of sexual violence by both governments and rebels. We conclude that dealing with sexual violence by weak and fragmented actors is a challenging task beyond the current capacity of UN peacekeeping.
27.	Joshi, Madhav, et al. (författare) Sequencing the Peace How the Order of Peace Agreement Implementation Can Reduce the Destabilizing Effects of Post-accord Elections 2017 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 61:1, s. 4-28 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Once a set of civil war actors reach a final peace agreement, a number of different implementation sequences are possible as the negotiated provisions are put into practice. We focus on a key but threatening stepping stone in the post-accord period-the holding of the first post-accord election-which has the capacity to be a stabilizing or destabilizing force. We identify effective accommodation provisions that civil war actors can negotiate and implement before the first post-accord election to reduce the chances of renewed violence. Utilizing new longitudinal data on the implementation of comprehensive peace agreements between 1989 and 2012 and a series of survival models, we find that if the first post-accord election is preceded by the implementation of accommodation measures, elections can have a peace-promoting effect. However, in the absence of preelection accommodation measures, elections are much more likely to be followed by peace failure.
28.	Kreft, Anne-Kathrin, 1983, et al. (författare) Gendered Conflict, Gendered Outcomes: The Politicization of Sexual Violence and Quota Adoption 2020 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 64:2-3 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Sexual violence (SV) in conflict is increasingly politicized at both the international and domestic levels. Where SV in conflict is prevalent, we argue international actors perceive gender to be salient and push for a gendered response. Simultaneously, women mobilize politically in response to the threat to their security that conflict-related SV constitutes, making demands for greater representation in politics with the goal of improving societal conditions for themselves. Jointly, we theorize the pressures from above and below push governments in conflict-affected states toward adopting gender policies. We test this theoretical framework in the case of gender quota adoption. We find that states with prevalent wartime SV indeed adopt gender quotas sooner and at higher rates than states experiencing other civil conflicts and than states experiencing no conflict in the same period. These gender quotas, we further show, are not mere window dressing but actually increase women’s legislative representation.
29.	Leon-Ablan, Gabriel, et al. (författare) Gentrification and Social Unrest : The Blitz, Urban Change and the 2011 London Riots 2024 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 68:2-3, s. 484-508 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Many of the world’s major cities have recently seen large episodes of social unrest. What is the relationship between the changes these cities have experienced, particularly in the form of gentrification, and urban riots? We address this question by examining how local gentrification affected participation in the 2011 London riots. We use an instrumental variable strategy that exploits exogenous variation in the amount of local destruction caused by the Blitz; this is a strong predictor of local gentrification in London in 2001–2011. We find that gentrifying neighborhoods had a lower participation rate than other areas; this was a result of changes in the type of resident (a composition effect) and in the context in which the residents made their participation decisions (a contextual effect). Our findings are consistent with qualitative evidence from the United Kingdom and the United States, and highlight the effect that urban change can have on social order.
30.	Lundgren, Magnus, 1976, et al. (författare) Local Ceasefires and De-escalation : Evidence From the Syrian Civil War 2023 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 67:7-8, s. 1350-1375 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Local ceasefire agreements are prevalent in modern civil wars, but we know little about their impact. This study analyzes geo-referenced data on 145 local ceasefire agreements declared during the Syrian Civil War, 2011-2019, exploring their short- and long-term effects on the intensity of armed violence. Drawing on scholarship on gradual confidence-building processes, we theorize the conditions under which local ceasefire agreements may generate trust and reduce conflict intensity. Using interrupted time-series analysis and spatial panel regression, we examine factors relating to the design and strategic context of ceasefire agreements. We find that local ceasefire agreements can trigger both escalation and de-escalation in the short term. De-escalatory outcomes are more likely in the long-term, when ceasefire signatories share a history of previous interaction, and when ceasefires are implemented in a stepwise fashion. We also find evidence of spatial diffusion: local ceasefire agreements in one area reduce conflict intensity in neighboring areas.
31.	Lundgren, Magnus, 1976, et al. (författare) Politics or Performance? Leadership Accountability in UN Peacekeeping 2022 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 66:1, s. 32-60 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract International organizations face a trade-off between the need to replace poorly performing leaders and the imperative of preserving the loyalty of influential or pivotal member states. This performance-politics dilemma is particularly acute in UN peacekeeping. Leaders of peacekeeping operations are responsible for ensuring that peacekeepers implement mandates, maintain discipline, and stay safe. Yet, if leaders fail to do so, is the UN Secretariat able and willing to replace them? We investigate newly collected data on the tenure of 238 civilian and military leaders in thirty-eight peacekeeping operations, 1978 to 2017. We find that the tenures of civilian leaders are insensitive to performance, but that military leaders in poorly performing missions are more likely to be replaced. We also find evidence that political considerations complicate the UN’s efforts at accountability. Holding mission performance constant, military leaders from countries that are powerful or contribute large numbers of troops stay longer in post.
32.	Nilsson, Marco, 1971 (författare) Offense-Defense Balance, War Duration, and the Security Dilemma 2012 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 56:3, s. 467-489 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The systemic offense-defense theory argues that the security dilemma and the risk of war become doubly severe in offense-dominant eras in the state system. However, the theory assumes in support of its main argument that wars are shorter when offense has the advantage. This article empirically tests the expected connection between the systemic offense-defense balance and war duration. A statistical analysis of wars 1817-1992 disconfirms the theory's expectations. The article then draws different conclusions about the severity of the security dilemma when offense is dominant: both arms racing and the fear of aggression that the security dilemma thrives on should be less severe than offense-defense theorists assume.
33.	Otto, Sabine (författare) The Grass Is Always Greener? : Armed Group Side Switching in Civil Wars 2018 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 62:7, s. 1459-1488 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Why do armed groups switch sides during civil wars? Most theories of conflict assume that armed groups have a fixed alignment with the government throughout their entire life span, ignoring the fact that armed groups switch between fighting on behalf of and against the government. In this article, I propose a theoretical framework that integrates armed groups’ willingness to switch sides and their capacity to do so. Armed groups are motivated to switch sides if it contributes to maintaining or improving organizational objectives. I therefore expect armed groups to switch sides as the number of other armed groups with the same alignment increases and when the state is weak. I also argue that armed groups require the capacity to switch sides in order to overcome the internal coordination problem. I propose that non-state armed actors that are the product of prior splintering are more homogeneous and cohesive than other groups. Hence, they are in a better position to attempt to switch sides. I test the propositions using a novel data set, the History of Armed Actors Dataset, containing data on when and where armed groups have switched sides during civil wars between 1989 and 2007. The results reveal that both incentives and capacity influence side switching.
34.	Spagat, Michael, et al. (författare) Estimating War Deaths : An Arena of Contestation 2009 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 53:6, s. 934-950 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract In a much-cited recent article, Obermeyer, Murray, and Gakidou (2008a) examine estimates of wartime fatalities from injuries for thirteen countries. Their analysis poses a major challenge to the battle-death estimating methodology widely used by conflict researchers, engages with the controversy over whether war deaths have been increasing or decreasing in recent decades, and takes the debate over different approaches to battledeath estimation to a new level. In making their assessments, the authors compare war death reports extracted from World Health Organization (WHO) sibling survey data with the battle-death estimates for the same countries from the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO). The analysis that leads to these conclusions is not compelling, however. Thus, while the authors argue that the PRIO estimates are too low by a factor of three, their comparison fails to compare like with like. Their assertion that there is “no evidence” to support the PRIO finding that war deaths have recently declined also fails. They ignore war-trend data for the periods after 1994 and before 1955, base their time trends on extrapolations from a biased convenience sample of only thirteen countries, and rely on an estimated constant that is statistically insignificant.
35.	Stern, Eric (författare) Contextualizing and critiquing the poliheuristic theory 2004 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 48:1, s. 105-126 Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract The poliheuristic theory of decision (PH) is placed in its proper historical context through a brief diachronic overview of the evolution of the foreign policy decision-making tradition from Snyder, Bruck, and Sapin to the present. The PH program is examined and contextualized in synchronic fashion via juxtaposition with three parallel lines of theoretical and empirical foreign policy decision-making research: cognitive institutionalism, problem representation, and decision units. These approaches are found to exhibit different methodological strengths and weaknesses and to emphasize different aspects of the decision-making process. Substantial complementarities exist, suggesting that the potential for synergy and cross-fertilization is great.
36.	Svensson, Isak, 1974-, et al. (författare) Disputes over the Divine : Introducing the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) data, 1975–2015 2018 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 62:5, s. 1127-1148 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This article introduces the Religion and Armed Conflict (RELAC) data, 1975 to 2015, which is a new data set suitable for analyzing the causes, dynamics, and resolution of religious conflicts. It contains information about key religious dimensions of conflicts: whether the issue at stake is religious, the actors’ religious identity, and fine-grained data about the type and salience of religious claims. The article presents the major features of the data set and describes patterns and trends that shed new light on religious conflicts, for example, by demonstrating that conflicts over Islamist claims have become more prevalent. We also illustrate the utility of the data. For instance, we show that there is great variation in lethality across conflicts with different types of Islamist claims, thereby offering a more nuanced understanding of the deadliness of religious conflicts. RELAC should be a valuable resource for scholars, examining religious dimensions of intrastate armed conflicts.
37.	Svensson, Isak (författare) Fighting with faith - Religion and conflict resolution a in civil wars 2007 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 51:6, s. 930-949 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract A growing literature has started to explore the relationship between religious dimensions and the escalation, duration, and termination of armed conflicts. This study explores the conditions for negotiated settlements. The author argues that if the belligerents' demands are explicitly anchored in a religious tradition, they will come to perceive the conflicting issues as indivisible, and the conflict will be less likely to be settled through negotiations. Utilizing unique data on the primary parties' religious demands and identities, all intrastate conflict-dyads in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), 1989-2003, are examined. The study finds that if governments or rebel-groups have made explicit religious claims, these conflict-dyads are significantly less likely than others to be terminated through negotiated settlement. By contrast, whether the primary parties come from different religious traditions does not affect the chances for negotiated settlement.
38.	Svensson, Isak, 1974- (författare) Manufacturing Dissent : Modernization and the Onset of Major Nonviolent Campaigns 2016 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 60, s. 311-339 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
39.	Svensson, Isak, 1974-, et al. (författare) Violent Political Protest : Introducing a New Uppsala Conflict Data Program Data Set on Organized Violence, 1989-2019 2022 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 66:9, s. 1703-1730 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This article presents the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) "Violent Political Protest"€ (VPP) data set: a new -standalone- category of organized violence, which complements, and is compatible with, UCDP's three categories of organized violence: one-sided violence, non-state, and state-based conflict. It consists of violent political protests, with at least 25 casualties during a year, in which informally organized civilians challenge states over governmental or territorial issues. We describe the data collection process, and demonstrate the data's use with empirical analyses. Violent political protest is present globally, but most prevalent in the Middle East and Africa, and increasingly common over time. Violent political protest frequently co-occurs with state-based conflicts, but rarely due to conflict escalation. We explore if this is due to shared contexts, and find that gender inequality increases the likelihood of VPP onset, similar to state-based conflicts. Finally, we identify avenues for future research, including using VPP to assist in a more precise and complete analysis of organized violence.
40.	Svensson, Isak, 1974- (författare) Who Brings Which Peace? : Neutral versus biased mediation and institutional peace arrangements in civil wars 2009 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 53:3, s. 446-469 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract This study examines the effect of biased versus neutral mediation on the content of peace agreements. The author argues that neutral mediators, who are engaged primarily because of their interest to end the war, will have incentives to hasten the reaching of an agreement to the expense of its quality. By contrast, biased mediators, seeking to protect their protégés, will take care to ensure that there are stipulations in an agreement guaranteeing the interest of their side or use their particular access and leverage to make their side agree to costly concessions. Biased mediation processes are therefore more likely than neutral mediation processes to lead to elaborated institutional arrangements that are generally considered conducive to democracy and durable peace, such as power sharing, third-party security guarantees, and justice provisions. Empirical analysis, covering the 1989-2004 period and building on data from 124 peace agreements, supports these claims.
41.	von Uexkull, Nina, et al. (författare) Drought, Resilience, and Support for Violence : Household Survey Evidence from DR Congo 2020 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications Inc. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 64:10, s. 1994-2021 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The effects of climate variability and change on security are debated. While this topic has received considerable attention in both policy circles and academia, the microlevel pathways and conditions under which climatic shocks increase conflict risks are poorly understood. We suggest that household resilience provides one key to understanding these relationships. Using novel household survey data from two conflict-affected regions in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, we study variation in the support for violence related to reported exposure to drought and resilience metrics. Using comprehensive multifaceted objective and subjective indicators of resilience, we find that less resilient respondents who report having experienced drought and associated losses are more likely to be supportive of the use of political violence. In contrast, our findings suggest that there is no general association between reporting drought exposure and support for violence.
42.	Wig, Tore, et al. (författare) Cues To Coup Plotters: Elections as Coup Triggers in Dictatorships 2016 Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : SAGE Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 60:5, s. 787-812 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract A large proportion of coup attempts in autocracies occur in the aftermath of elections, yet little systematic research exists on the topic. Drawing on recent literature on elections in autocracies, we present an argument to explain postelection coups. While we recognize that electoral institutions have the potential to stabilize autocracies, we illustrate that the election event can spark instability when incumbents reveal electoral weakness. Electoral outcomes—in the form of vote shares and opposition reactions—are signals containing information about the strength of the opposition, and indirectly about the likelihood of a successful full-scale revolution that would compromise the privileged positions of regime elites. In these situations, coups are likely to be initiated to avoid a revolution, either by serving as concessions to the opposition or by facilitating increased repression. We perform a large-N study that supports our argument, significantly nuancing the claim that elections stabilize autocracies.
43.	Hansson, Oskar, et al. (författare) The Alzheimer's Association international guidelines for handling of cerebrospinal fluid for routine clinical measurements of amyloid β and tau 2021 Ingår i: Alzheimer's and Dementia. - : Wiley. - 1552-5260 .- 1552-5279. ; 17:9, s. 1575-1582 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The core cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarkers amyloid beta (Aβ42 and Aβ40), total tau, and phosphorylated tau, have been extensively clinically validated, with very high diagnostic performance for AD, including the early phases of the disease. However, between-center differences in pre-analytical procedures may contribute to variability in measurements across laboratories. To resolve this issue, a workgroup was led by the Alzheimer's Association with experts from both academia and industry. The aim of the group was to develop a simplified and standardized pre-analytical protocol for CSF collection and handling before analysis for routine clinical use, and ultimately to ensure high diagnostic performance and minimize patient misclassification rates. Widespread application of the protocol would help minimize variability in measurements, which would facilitate the implementation of unified cut-off levels across laboratories, and foster the use of CSF biomarkers in AD diagnostics for the benefit of the patients.
44.	Agneman, Gustav, et al. (författare) How Ethnic Discrimination Shapes Political Reintegration After War : Insights from a Conjoint Experiment in Colombia Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - 0022-0027. Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract The reintegration of former armed group affiliates into formal politics is a fundamental challenge for post-conflict societies. Arguably, this challenge is even more difficult in settings where ethnic discrimination is pervasive, since discrimination implies comparatively higher barriers to political reintegration for racialized ex-combatants. In this paper, we explore how ethnicity and armed group affiliation interact to shape electoral prospects. Specifically, we investigate whether participants in a conjoint experiment in Colombia discriminate between political candidates of European and African descent and whether politicians of different ethnic identities are differentially punished for ties to armed groups. We find that participants display a strong aversion toward politicians with armed group affiliations and that they discriminate against Afro-Colombian candidates. Furthermore, we demonstrate that biases are additive, in the sense that Caucasian and Afro-Colombian candidates are equally punished for associating with armed groups. Finally, we explore heterogeneous treatment effects to shed light on sources of ethnic discrimination and aversion toward former armed group affiliates.
45.	Stangeland, Biljana, et al. (författare) Molecular analysis of Arabidopsis endosperm and embryo promoter trap lines : Reporter-gene expression can result from T-DNA insertions in antisense orientation, in introns and in intergenic regions, in addition to sense insertion at the 5′ end of genes 2005 Ingår i: Journal of Experimental Botany. - : Oxford University Press. - 0022-0957 .- 1460-2431. ; 56:419, s. 2495-2505 Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract Random insertions of promoterless reporter genes in genomes are a common tool for identifying marker lines with tissue-specific expression patterns. Such lines are assumed to reflect the activity of endogenous promoters and should facilitate the cloning of genes expressed in the corresponding tissues. To identify genes active in seed organs, plant DNA flanking T-DNA insertions (T-DNAs) have been cloned in 16 Arabidopsis thaliana GUS-reporter lines. T-DNAs were found in proximal promoter regions, 5' UTR or intron with GUS in the same (sense) orientation as the tagged gene, but contrary to expectations also in inverted orientation in the 5' end of genes or in intergenic regions. RT-PCR, northern analysis, and data on expression patterns of tagged genes, compared with the expression pattern of the reporter lines, suggest that the expression pattern of a reporter gene will reflect the pattern of a tagged gene when inserted in sense orientation in the 5' UTR or intron. When inserted in the promoter region, the reporter-gene expression patterns may be restricted compared with the endogenous gene. Among the trapped genes, the previously described nitrate transporter gene AtNRT1.1, the cyclophilin gene ROC3, and the histone deacetylase gene AtHD2C were found. Reporter-gene expression when positioned in antisense orientation, for example, in the SLEEPY1 gene, is indicative of antisense expression of the tagged gene. For T-DNAs found in intergenic regions, it is suggested that the reporter gene is transcribed from cryptic promoters or promoters of as yet unannotated genes.

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