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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 6. |
- Kim, Ji Hoon, et al.
(författare)
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THE AGORA HIGH-RESOLUTION GALAXY SIMULATIONS COMPARISON PROJECT. II. ISOLATED DISK TEST
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 833:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using an isolated Milky Way-mass galaxy simulation, we compare results from nine state-of-the-art gravito-hydrodynamics codes widely used in the numerical community. We utilize the infrastructure we have built for the AGORA High-resolution Galaxy Simulations Comparison Project. This includes the common disk initial conditions, common physics models (e.g., radiative cooling and UV background by the standardized package Grackle) and common analysis toolkit yt, all of which are publicly available. Subgrid physics models such as Jeans pressure floor, star formation, supernova feedback energy, and metal production are carefully constrained across code platforms. With numerical accuracy that resolves the disk scale height, we find that the codes overall agree well with one another in many dimensions including: gas and stellar surface densities, rotation curves, velocity dispersions, density and temperature distribution functions, disk vertical heights, stellar clumps, star formation rates, and Kennicutt-Schmidt relations. Quantities such as velocity dispersions are very robust (agreement within a few tens of percent at all radii) while measures like newly formed stellar clump mass functions show more significant variation (difference by up to a factor of ∼3). Systematic differences exist, for example, between mesh-based and particle-based codes in the low-density region, and between more diffusive and less diffusive schemes in the high-density tail of the density distribution. Yet intrinsic code differences are generally small compared to the variations in numerical implementations of the common subgrid physics such as supernova feedback. Our experiment reassures that, if adequately designed in accordance with our proposed common parameters, results of a modern high-resolution galaxy formation simulation are more sensitive to input physics than to intrinsic differences in numerical schemes.
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| 7. |
- Kreins, AY, et al.
(författare)
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Human TYK2 deficiency: Mycobacterial and viral infections without hyper-IgE syndrome
- 2015
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Ingår i: The Journal of experimental medicine. - : Rockefeller University Press. - 1540-9538 .- 0022-1007. ; 212:10, s. 1641-1662
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Autosomal recessive, complete TYK2 deficiency was previously described in a patient (P1) with intracellular bacterial and viral infections and features of hyper-IgE syndrome (HIES), including atopic dermatitis, high serum IgE levels, and staphylococcal abscesses. We identified seven other TYK2-deficient patients from five families and four different ethnic groups. These patients were homozygous for one of five null mutations, different from that seen in P1. They displayed mycobacterial and/or viral infections, but no HIES. All eight TYK2-deficient patients displayed impaired but not abolished cellular responses to (a) IL-12 and IFN-α/β, accounting for mycobacterial and viral infections, respectively; (b) IL-23, with normal proportions of circulating IL-17+ T cells, accounting for their apparent lack of mucocutaneous candidiasis; and (c) IL-10, with no overt clinical consequences, including a lack of inflammatory bowel disease. Cellular responses to IL-21, IL-27, IFN-γ, IL-28/29 (IFN-λ), and leukemia inhibitory factor (LIF) were normal. The leukocytes and fibroblasts of all seven newly identified TYK2-deficient patients, unlike those of P1, responded normally to IL-6, possibly accounting for the lack of HIES in these patients. The expression of exogenous wild-type TYK2 or the silencing of endogenous TYK2 did not rescue IL-6 hyporesponsiveness, suggesting that this phenotype was not a consequence of the TYK2 genotype. The core clinical phenotype of TYK2 deficiency is mycobacterial and/or viral infections, caused by impaired responses to IL-12 and IFN-α/β. Moreover, impaired IL-6 responses and HIES do not appear to be intrinsic features of TYK2 deficiency in humans.
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| 9. |
- Pientka, B., et al.
(författare)
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A Type Theory for Defining Logics and Proofs
- 2019
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Ingår i: 2019 34TH ANNUAL ACM/IEEE SYMPOSIUM ON LOGIC IN COMPUTER SCIENCE (LICS). - : IEEE. - 9781728136080
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We describe a Martin-Lof-style dependent type theory, called COCON, that allows us to mix the intensional function space that is used to represent higher-order abstract syntax (HOAS) trees with the extensional function space that describes (recursive) computations. We mediate between HOAS representations and computations using contextual modal types. Our type theory also supports an infinite hierarchy of universes and hence supports type-level computation thereby providing metaprogramming and (small-scale) reflection. Our main contribution is the development of a Kripke-style model for COCON that allows us to prove normalization. From the normalization proof, we derive subject reduction and consistency. Our work lays the foundation to incorporate the methodology of logical frameworks into systems such as Agda and bridges the longstanding gap between these two worlds.
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| 10. |
- Tesan, Tajana, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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A new GTF2I-BRAF fusion mediating MAPK pathway activation in pilocytic astrocytoma
- 2017
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 12:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Pilocytic astrocytoma (PA) is the most common pediatric brain tumor. A recurrent feature of PA is deregulation of the mitogen activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway most often through KIAA1549-BRAF fusion, but also by other BRAF- or RAF1-gene fusions and point mutations (e.g. BRAFV600E). These features may serve as diagnostic and prognostic markers, and also facilitate development of targeted therapy. The aims of this study were to characterize the genetic alterations underlying the development of PA in six tumor cases, and evaluate methods for fusion oncogene detection. Using a combined analysis of RNA sequencing and copy number variation data we identified a new BRAF fusion involving the 5' gene fusion partner GTF2I (7q11.23), not previously described in PA. The new GTF2I-BRAF 19-10 fusion was found in one case, while the other five cases harbored the frequent KIAA1549-BRAF 16-9 fusion gene. Similar to other BRAF fusions, the GTF2I-BRAF fusion retains an intact BRAF kinase domain while the inhibitory N-terminal domain is lost. Functional studies on GTF2I-BRAF showed elevated MAPK pathway activation compared to BRAF WT. Comparing fusion detection methods, we found Fluorescence in situ hybridization with BRAF break apart probe as the most sensitive method for detection of different BRAF rearrangements (GTF2I-BRAF and KIAA1549-BRAF). Our finding of a new BRAF fusion in PA further emphasis the important role of B-Raf in tumorigenesis of these tumor types. Moreover, the consistency and growing list of BRAF/RAF gene fusions suggests these rearrangements to be informative tumor markers in molecular diagnostics, which could guide future treatment strategies.
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| 11. |
- Wilkie, George, 1983, et al.
(författare)
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First principles of modelling the stabilization of microturbulence by fast ions
- 2018
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Ingår i: Nuclear Fusion. - : IOP PUBLISHING LTD. - 0029-5515 .- 1741-4326. ; 58:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The observation that fast ions stabilize ion-temperature-gradient-driven microturbulence has profound implications for future fusion reactors. It is also important in optimizing the performance of present-day devices. In this work, we examine in detail the phenomenology of fast ion stabilization and present a reduced model which describes this effect. This model is derived from the high-energy limit of the gyrokinetic equation and extends the existing 'dilution' model to account for nontrivial fast ion kinetics. Our model provides a physically-transparent explanation for the observed stabilization and makes several key qualitative predictions. Firstly, that different classes of fast ions, depending on their radial density or temperature variation, have different stabilizing properties. Secondly, that zonal flows are an important ingredient in this effect precisely because the fast ion zonal response is negligible. Finally, that in the limit of highly-energetic fast ions, their response approaches that of the 'dilution' model; in particular, alpha particles are expected to have little, if any, stabilizing effect on plasma turbulence. We support these conclusions through detailed linear and nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations.
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