| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
| 6. |
- Thomas, HS, et al.
(författare)
-
- 2019
-
swepub:Mat__t
|
|
| 7. |
- Fitzmauric, C., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017 : A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
- 2019
-
Ingår i: JAMA Oncology. - : American Medical Association. - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 5:12, s. 1749-1768
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: Cancer and other noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are now widely recognized as a threat to global development. The latest United Nations high-level meeting on NCDs reaffirmed this observation and also highlighted the slow progress in meeting the 2011 Political Declaration on the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases and the third Sustainable Development Goal. Lack of situational analyses, priority setting, and budgeting have been identified as major obstacles in achieving these goals. All of these have in common that they require information on the local cancer epidemiology. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study is uniquely poised to provide these crucial data.Objective: To describe cancer burden for 29 cancer groups in 195 countries from 1990 through 2017 to provide data needed for cancer control planning.Evidence Review: We used the GBD study estimation methods to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Results are presented at the national level as well as by Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income, educational attainment, and total fertility rate. We also analyzed the influence of the epidemiological vs the demographic transition on cancer incidence.Findings: In 2017, there were 24.5 million incident cancer cases worldwide (16.8 million without nonmelanoma skin cancer [NMSC]) and 9.6 million cancer deaths. The majority of cancer DALYs came from years of life lost (97%), and only 3% came from years lived with disability. The odds of developing cancer were the lowest in the low SDI quintile (1 in 7) and the highest in the high SDI quintile (1 in 2) for both sexes. In 2017, the most common incident cancers in men were NMSC (4.3 million incident cases); tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer (1.5 million incident cases); and prostate cancer (1.3 million incident cases). The most common causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for men were TBL cancer (1.3 million deaths and 28.4 million DALYs), liver cancer (572000 deaths and 15.2 million DALYs), and stomach cancer (542000 deaths and 12.2 million DALYs). For women in 2017, the most common incident cancers were NMSC (3.3 million incident cases), breast cancer (1.9 million incident cases), and colorectal cancer (819000 incident cases). The leading causes of cancer deaths and DALYs for women were breast cancer (601000 deaths and 17.4 million DALYs), TBL cancer (596000 deaths and 12.6 million DALYs), and colorectal cancer (414000 deaths and 8.3 million DALYs).Conclusions and Relevance: The national epidemiological profiles of cancer burden in the GBD study show large heterogeneities, which are a reflection of different exposures to risk factors, economic settings, lifestyles, and access to care and screening. The GBD study can be used by policy makers and other stakeholders to develop and improve national and local cancer control in order to achieve the global targets and improve equity in cancer care.
|
|
| 8. |
- Barber, R. M., et al.
(författare)
-
Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
| 9. |
- Hay, S. I., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 10. |
- Barber, R. M., et al.
(författare)
-
Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
- 2017
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
| 11. |
|
|
| 12. |
|
|
| 13. |
|
|
| 14. |
|
|
| 15. |
|
|
| 16. |
|
|
| 17. |
|
|
| 18. |
|
|
| 19. |
- Vos, T., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1211-1259
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57.6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40.8-75.9 million [7.2%, 6.0-8.3]), 45.1 million (29.0-62.8 million [5.6%, 4.0-7.2]), 36.3 million (25.3-50.9 million [4.5%, 3.8-5.3]), 34.7 million (23.0-49.6 million [4.3%, 3.5-5.2]), and 34.1 million (23.5-46.0 million [4.2%, 3.2-5.3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2.7% (95% UI 2.3-3.1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10.4% (95% UI 9.0-11.8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 20. |
- Wang, H. D., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 21. |
- Naghavi, M., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1151-1210
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71.2-73.2) of deaths in 2016 with 19.3% (18.5-20.4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8.43% (8.00-8.67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1.80 million deaths (95% UI 1.59 million to 1.89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2.89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1.59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 22. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
-
Centrality dependence of particle production in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Physical Review C (Nuclear Physics). - 0556-2813. ; 91:6
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report measurements of the primary charged-particle pseudorapidity density and transverse momentum distributions in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV and investigate their correlation with experimental observables sensitive to the centrality of the collision. Centrality classes are defined by using different event-activity estimators, i.e., charged-particle multiplicities measured in three different pseudorapidity regions as well as the energy measured at beam rapidity (zero degree). The procedures to determine the centrality, quantified by the number of participants (N-part) or the number of nucleon-nucleon binary collisions (N-coll) are described. We show that, in contrast to Pb-Pb collisions, in p-Pb collisions large multiplicity fluctuations together with the small range of participants available generate a dynamical bias in centrality classes based on particle multiplicity. We propose to use the zero-degree energy, which we expect not to introduce a dynamical bias, as an alternative event-centrality estimator. Based on zero-degree energy-centrality classes, the N-part dependence of particle production is studied. Under the assumption that the multiplicity measured in the Pb-going rapidity region scales with the number of Pb participants, an approximate independence of the multiplicity per participating nucleon measured at mid-rapidity of the number of participating nucleons is observed. Furthermore, at high-pT the p-Pb spectra are found to be consistent with the pp spectra scaled by N-coll for all centrality classes. Our results represent valuable input for the study of the event-activity dependence of hard probes in p-Pb collisions and, hence, help to establish baselines for the interpretation of the Pb-Pb data.
|
|
| 23. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
-
Forward-backward multiplicity correlations in pp collisions at root s=0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The strength of forward-backward (FB) multiplicity correlations is measured by the ALICE detector in proton-proton (pp) collisions at = 0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV. The measurement is performed in the central pseudorapidity region (|eta| < 0.8) for the transverse momentum p (T) > 0.3 GeV/c. Two separate pseudorapidity windows of width (delta eta) ranging from 0.2 to 0.8 are chosen symmetrically around eta = 0. The multiplicity correlation strength (b (corr)) is studied as a function of the pseudorapidity gap (eta (gap)) between the two windows as well as the width of these windows. The correlation strength is found to decrease with increasing eta (gap) and shows a non-linear increase with delta eta. A sizable increase of the correlation strength with the collision energy, which cannot be explained exclusively by the increase of the mean multiplicity inside the windows, is observed. The correlation coefficient is also measured for multiplicities in different configurations of two azimuthal sectors selected within the symmetric FB eta-windows. Two different contributions, the short-range (SR) and the long-range (LR), are observed. The energy dependence of b (corr) is found to be weak for the SR component while it is strong for the LR component. Moreover, the correlation coefficient is studied for particles belonging to various transverse momentum intervals chosen to have the same mean multiplicity. Both SR and LR contributions to b (corr) are found to increase with p (T) in this case. Results are compared to PYTHIA and PHOJET event generators and to a string-based phenomenological model. The observed dependencies of b (corr) add new constraints on phenomenological models.
|
|
| 24. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
-
Measurement of charm and beauty production at central rapidity versus charged-particle multiplicity in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :9
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Prompt D meson and non-prompt J/psi yields are studied as a function of the multiplicity of charged particles produced in inelastic proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy of root s = 7 TeV. The results are reported as a ratio between yields in a given multiplicity interval normalised to the multiplicity-integrated ones (relative yields). They are shown as a function of the multiplicity of charged particles normalised to the average value for inelastic collisions (relative charged-particle multiplicity). D-0, D+ and D*+ mesons are measured in five p(T) intervals from 1 GeV/c to 20 GeV/c and for |y| < 0.5 via their hadronic decays. The D-meson relative yield is found to increase with increasing charged-particle multiplicity. For events with multiplicity six times higher than the average multiplicity of inelastic collisions, a yield enhancement of a factor about 15 relative to the multiplicity-integrated yield in inelastic collisions is observed. The yield enhancement is independent of transverse momentum within the uncertainties of the measurement. The D-0-meson relative yield is also measured as a function of the relative multiplicity at forward pseudo-rapidity. The non-prompt J/psi, i.e. the B hadron, contribution to the inclusive J/psi production is measured in the di-electron decay channel at central rapidity. It is evaluated for p(T) > 1.3 GeV/c and |y| < 0.9, and extrapolated to p(T) > 0. The fraction of non-prompt J/psi the inclusive J/psi yields shows no dependence on the charged-particle multiplicity at central rapidity. Charm and beauty hadron relative yields exhibit a similar increase with increasing charged-particle multiplicity. The measurements are compared to PYTHIA 8, EPOS 3 and percolation calculations.
|
|
| 25. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
-
Measurement of jet suppression in central Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 746, s. 1-14
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The transverse momentum(p(T)) spectrum and nuclear modification factor (R-AA) of reconstructed jets in 0-10% and 10-30% central Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV were measured. Jets were reconstructed using the anti-k(T) jet algorithm with a resolution parameter of R = 0.2 from charged and neutral particles, utilizing the ALICE tracking detectors and Electromagnetic Calorimeter (EMCal). The jet p(T) spectra are reported in the pseudorapidity interval of \eta(jet)\ < 0.5 for 40 < p(T), jet < 120 GeV/c in 0-10% and for 30 < p(T), jet < 100 GeV/c in 10-30% collisions. Reconstructed jets were required to contain a leading charged particle with p(T) > 5 GeV/c to suppress jets constructed from the combinatorial background in Pb-Pb collisions. The leading charged particle requirement applied to jet spectra both in pp and Pb-Pb collisions had a negligible effect on the R-AA. The nuclear modification factor R-AA was found to be 0.28 +/- 0.04 in 0-10% and 0.35 +/- 0.04 in 10-30% collisions, independent of p(T), jet within the uncertainties of the measurement. The observed suppression is in fair agreement with expectations from two model calculations with different approaches to jet quenching. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
|
|
| 26. |
- Adam, J, et al.
(författare)
-
Measurement of pion, kaon and proton production in proton-proton collisions at [Formula: see text] TeV.
- 2015
-
Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044. ; 75:5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The measurement of primary [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] production at mid-rapidity ([Formula: see text] 0.5) in proton-proton collisions at [Formula: see text][Formula: see text] 7 TeV performed with a large ion collider experiment at the large hadron collider (LHC) is reported. Particle identification is performed using the specific ionisation energy-loss and time-of-flight information, the ring-imaging Cherenkov technique and the kink-topology identification of weak decays of charged kaons. Transverse momentum spectra are measured from 0.1 up to 3 GeV/[Formula: see text] for pions, from 0.2 up to 6 GeV/[Formula: see text] for kaons and from 0.3 up to 6 GeV/[Formula: see text] for protons. The measured spectra and particle ratios are compared with quantum chromodynamics-inspired models, tuned to reproduce also the earlier measurements performed at the LHC. Furthermore, the integrated particle yields and ratios as well as the average transverse momenta are compared with results at lower collision energies.
|
|
| 27. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
-
Precision measurement of the mass difference between light nuclei and anti-nuclei
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Nature Physics. - 1745-2473. ; 11:10, s. 120-811
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The measurement of the mass differences for systems bound by the strong force has reached a very high precision with protons and anti-protons(1,2). The extension of such measurement from (anti-)baryons to (anti-) nuclei allows one to probe any difference in the interactions between nucleons and anti-nucleons encoded in the (anti-) nuclei masses. This force is a remnant of the underlying strong interaction among quarks and gluons and can be described by effective theories(3), but cannot yet be directly derived from quantum chromodynamics. Here we report a measurement of the difference between the ratios of the mass and charge of deuterons (d) and anti-deuterons ((d) over bar), and He-3 and (3)(He) over bar nuclei carried out with the ALICE (A Large Ion Collider Experiment)(4) detector in Pb-Pb collisions at a centre-of-mass energy per nucleon pair of 2.76 TeV. Our direct measurement of the mass-over-charge differences confirms CPT invariance to an unprecedented precision in the sector of light nuclei(5,6). This fundamental symmetry of nature, which exchanges particles with anti-particles, implies that all physics laws are the same under the simultaneous reversal of charge(s) (charge conjugation C), reflection of spatial coordinates (parity transformation P) and time inversion (T).
|
|
| 28. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
-
Rapidity and transverse-momentum dependence of the inclusive J/psi nuclear modification factor in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :6
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We have studied the transverse-momentum (p(T)) dependence of the inclusive J/psi production in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 5.02 TeV, in three center-of-mass rapidity (y(cms)) regions, down to zero p(T). Results in the forward and backward rapidity ranges (2.03 < y(cms) < 3.53 and -4.46 < y(cms) < -2.96) are obtained by studying the J/psi decay to mu(+)mu(-), while the mid-rapidity region (-1.37 < y(cms) < 0.43) is investigated by measuring the e(+)e(-) decay channel. The p(T) dependence of the J/psi production cross section and nuclear modification factor are presented for each of the rapidity intervals, as well as the J/psi mean p(T) values. Forward and mid-rapidity results show a suppression of the J/psi yield, with respect to pp collisions, which decreases with increasing p(T). At backward rapidity no significant J/psi suppression is observed. Theoretical models including a combination of cold nuclear matter effects such as shadowing and partonic energy loss, are in fair agreement with the data, except at forward rapidity and low transverse momentum. The implications of the p-Pb results for the evaluation of cold nuclear matter effects on J/psi production in Pb-Pb collisions are also discussed.
|
|
| 29. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
-
Search for weakly decaying (Lambda n)over-bar and Lambda Lambda exotic bound states in central Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN=2.76 TeV
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 752, s. 267-277
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present results of a search for two hypothetical strange dibaryon states, i.e. the H-dibaryon and the possible (Lambda n) over bar bound state. The search is performed with the ALICE detector in central (0-10%) Pb-Pb collisions at root S-NN = 2.76 TeV, by invariant mass analysis in the decay modes (Lambda n) over bar (d) over bar pi(+) and H-dibaryon -> Lambda p pi(-). No evidence for these bound states is observed. Upper limits are determined at 99% confidence level for a wide range of lifetimes and for the full range of branching ratios. The results are compared to thermal, coalescence and hybrid UrQMD model expectations, which describe correctly the production of other loosely bound states, like the deuteron and the hypertriton. (C) 2015 CERN for the benefit of the ALICE Collaboration. Published by Elsevier B.V.
|
|
| 30. |
- Fullman, N., et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 31. |
- Adam, J., et al.
(författare)
-
Two-pion femtoscopy in p-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S=5.02 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Physical Review C (Nuclear Physics). - 0556-2813. ; 91:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report the results of the femtoscopic analysis of pairs of identical pions measured in p-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-S = 5.02 TeV. Femtoscopic radii are determined as a function of event multiplicity and pair momentum in three spatial dimensions. As in the pp collision system, the analysis is complicated by the presence of sizable background correlation structures in addition to the femtoscopic signal. The radii increase with event multiplicity and decrease with pair transverse momentum. When taken at comparable multiplicity, the radii measured in p-Pb collisions, at high multiplicity and low pair transverse momentum, are 10%-20% higher than those observed in pp collisions but below those observed in A-A collisions. The results are compared to hydrodynamic predictions at large event multiplicity as well as discussed in the context of calculations based on gluon saturation.
|
|
| 32. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Production of inclusive gamma(1S) and gamma(2S) in p-Pb collisions at, root S-NN=5.02 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 740, s. 105-117
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the production of inclusive gamma(1S) and gamma(2S) in p-Pb collisions at root S-NN = 5.02 TeV at the LHC. The measurement is performed with the ALICE detector at backward (-4.46 < ycms < 2.96) and forward (2.03 < ycms <3.53) rapidity down to zero transverse momentum. The production cross sections of the gamma(1S) and gamma(2S) are presented, as well as the nuclear modification factor and the ratio of the forward to backward yields of gamma(1S). A suppression of the inclusive gamma(1S) yield in p-Pb collisions with respect to the yield from pp collisions scaled by the number of binary nucleon-nucleon collisions is observed at forward rapidity but not at backward rapidity. The results are compared to theoretical model calculations including nuclear shadowing or partonic energy loss effects. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
|
|
| 33. |
- Gakidou, E., et al.
(författare)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. Findings Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124.1 million DALYs [95% UI 111.2 million to 137.0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122.2 million DALYs [110.3 million to 133.3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83.0 million DALYs [78.3 million to 87.7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89.9 million DALYs [80.9 million to 98.2 million]), high body-mass index (64.8 million DALYs [44.4 million to 87.6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63.8 million DALYs [53.2 million to 76.3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9.3% (6.9-11.6) decline in deaths and a 10.8% (8.3-13.1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14.9% (12.7-17.5) of deaths and 6.2% (3.9-8.7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of deaths and 12.4% (10.1-14.9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27.3% (24.9-29.7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. Interpretation Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
|
|
| 34. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Charged jet cross sections and properties in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Physical Review D (Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology). - 1550-2368. ; 91:11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The differential charged jet cross sections, jet fragmentation distributions, and jet shapes are measured in minimum bias proton-proton collisions at center-of-mass energy root s = 7 TeV using the ALICE detector at the LHC. Jets are reconstructed from charged particle momenta in the midrapidity region using the sequential recombination k(T) and anti-k(T) as well as the SISCone jet finding algorithms with several resolution parameters in the range R = 0.2-0.6. Differential jet production cross sections measured with the three jet finders are in agreement in the transverse momentum (p(T)) interval 20 < p(T)(jet,ch) < 100 GeV/c. They are also consistent with prior measurements carried out at the LHC by the ATLAS Collaboration. The jet charged particle multiplicity rises monotonically with increasing jet p(T), in qualitative agreement with prior observations at lower energies. The transverse profiles of leading jets are investigated using radial momentum density distributions as well as distributions of the average radius containing 80% (< R-80 >) of the reconstructed jet p(T). The fragmentation of leading jets with R = 0.4 using scaled p(T) spectra of the jet constituents is studied. The measurements are compared to model calculations from event generators (PYTHIA, PHOJET, HERWIG). The measured radial density distributions and < R-80 > distributions are well described by the PYTHIA model (tune Perugia-2011). The fragmentation distributions are better described by HERWIG.
|
|
| 35. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Inclusive photon production at forward rapidities in proton-proton collisions at root s=0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044. ; 75:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The multiplicity and pseudorapidity distributions of inclusive photons have been measured at forward rapidities (2.3 < eta < 3.9) in proton-proton collisions at three center-of-mass energies, root s = 0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV using the ALICE detector. It is observed that the increase in the average photon multiplicity as a function of beam energy is compatible with both a logarithmic and a power-law dependence. The relative increase in average photon multiplicity produced in inelastic pp collisions at 2.76 and 7 TeV center-of-mass energies with respect to 0.9 TeV are 37.2 +/- 0.3% (stat) +/- 8.8% (sys) and 61.2 +/- 0.3% (stat) +/- 7.6% (sys), respectively. The photon multiplicity distributions for all center-of-mass energies are well described by negative binomial distributions. The multiplicity distributions are also presented in terms of KNO variables. The results are compared to model predictions, which are found in general to underestimate the data at large photon multiplicities, in particular at the highest center-of-mass energy. Limiting fragmentation behavior of photons has been explored with the data, but is not observed in the measured pseudorapidity range.
|
|
| 36. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Production of Sigma (1385)(+/-) and Xi (1530)(0) in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. Particles and Fields. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044. ; 75:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The production of the strange and double-strange baryon resonances (Sigma (1385)(+/-), Xi (1530)(0)) has been measured at mid-rapidity (vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.5) in proton-proton collisions at root s = 7 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC. Transverse momentum spectra for inelastic collisions are compared to QCD-inspired models, which in general underpredict the data. A search for the phi (1860) pentaquark, decaying in the Xi pi channel, has been carried out but no evidence is seen.
|
|
| 37. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Elliptic flow of identified hadrons in Pb-Pb collisions at root(NN)-N-s=2.76 Tev
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Journal of High Energy Physics. - 1029-8479. ; :6
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The elliptic flow coefficient (v(2)) of identified particles in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV was measured with the ALICE detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The results were obtained with the Scalar Product method, a two-particle correlation technique, using a pseudo-rapidity gap of |Delta eta| > 0.9 between the identified hadron under study and the reference particles. The v (2) is reported for pi(+/-), K-+/-, K-S(0), p+(p) over bar, phi, Lambda+(Lambda) over bar, Xi+(Xi) over bar (+) and Omega(-)+(Omega) over bar (+) in several collision centralities. In the low transverse momentum (p(T)) region, p(T) < 3 GeV/c, v(2)(p(T)) exhibits a particle mass dependence consistent with elliptic flow accompanied by the transverse radial expansion of the system with a common velocity field. The experimental data for pi (+/-) and the combined K-+/- and K-S(0) results, are described fairly well by hydrodynamic calculations coupled to a hadronic cascade model (VISHNU) for central collisions. However, the same calculations fail to reproduce the v(2)(p(T)) for p+(p) over bar, phi, Lambda+(Lambda) over bar, Xi+(Xi) over bar (+). For transverse momentum values larger than about 3 GeV/c, particles tend to group according to their type, i.e. mesons and baryons. The present measurements exhibit deviations from the number of constituent quark (NCQ) scaling at the level of +/- 20% for p(T) > 3 GeV/c.
|
|
| 38. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Multiplicity dependence of jet-like two-particle correlation structures in p-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Physics Letters. Section B: Nuclear, Elementary Particle and High-Energy Physics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0370-2693. ; 741, s. 38-50
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two-particle angular correlations between unidentified charged trigger and associated particles are measured by the ALICE detector in p-Pb collisions at a nucleon-nucleon centre-of-mass energy of 5.02 TeV. The transverse-momentum range 0.7 < p(T),(assoc) < p(T),(trig) < 5.0 GeV/c is examined, to include correlations induced by jets originating from low momentum-transfer scatterings (minijets). The correlations expressed as associated yield per trigger particle are obtained in the pseudorapidity range vertical bar eta vertical bar < 0.9. The near-side long-range pseudorapidity correlations observed in high-multiplicity p-Pb collisions are subtracted from both near-side short-range and away-side correlations in order to remove the non-jet-like components. The yields in the jet-like peaks are found to be invariant with event multiplicity with the exception of events with low multiplicity. This invariance is consistent with the particles being produced via the incoherent fragmentation of multiple parton-parton scatterings, while the yield related to the previously observed ridge structures is not jet-related. The number of uncorrelated sources of particle production is found to increase linearly with multiplicity, suggesting no saturation of the number of multi-parton interactions even in the highest multiplicity p-Pb collisions. Further, the number scales only in the intermediate multiplicity region with the number of binary nucleon-nucleon collisions estimated with a Glauber Monte-Carlo simulation. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).
|
|
| 39. |
- Ruilope, LM, et al.
(författare)
-
Design and Baseline Characteristics of the Finerenone in Reducing Cardiovascular Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease Trial
- 2019
-
Ingår i: American journal of nephrology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1421-9670 .- 0250-8095. ; 50:5, s. 345-356
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- <b><i>Background:</i></b> Among people with diabetes, those with kidney disease have exceptionally high rates of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality and progression of their underlying kidney disease. Finerenone is a novel, nonsteroidal, selective mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist that has shown to reduce albuminuria in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) while revealing only a low risk of hyperkalemia. However, the effect of finerenone on CV and renal outcomes has not yet been investigated in long-term trials. <b><i>Patients and</i></b> <b><i>Methods:</i></b> The Finerenone in Reducing CV Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease (FIGARO-DKD) trial aims to assess the efficacy and safety of finerenone compared to placebo at reducing clinically important CV and renal outcomes in T2D patients with CKD. FIGARO-DKD is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, event-driven trial running in 47 countries with an expected duration of approximately 6 years. FIGARO-DKD randomized 7,437 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥25 mL/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup> and albuminuria (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥30 to ≤5,000 mg/g). The study has at least 90% power to detect a 20% reduction in the risk of the primary outcome (overall two-sided significance level α = 0.05), the composite of time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> FIGARO-DKD will determine whether an optimally treated cohort of T2D patients with CKD at high risk of CV and renal events will experience cardiorenal benefits with the addition of finerenone to their treatment regimen. Trial Registration: EudraCT number: 2015-000950-39; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02545049.
|
|
| 40. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
K*(892)(0) and phi(1020) production in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN)=2.76 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Physical Review C (Nuclear Physics). - 0556-2813. ; 91:2
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The yields of the K*(892)(0) and phi(1020) resonances are measured in Pb-Pb collisions at root s(NN) = 2.76 TeV through their hadronic decays using the ALICE detector. The measurements are performed in multiple centrality intervals at mid-rapidity (vertical bar y vertical bar < 0.5) in the transverse-momentum ranges 0.3 < p(T) < 5 GeV/c for the K*(892)(0) and 0.5 < p(T) < 5 GeV/c for the phi(1020). The yields of K*(892)(0) are suppressed in central Pb-Pb collisions with respect to pp and peripheral Pb-Pb collisions (perhaps due to rescattering of its decay products in the hadronic medium), while the longer-lived phi(1020) meson is not suppressed. These particles are also used as probes to study the mechanisms of particle production. The shape of the pT distribution of the phi(1020) meson, but not its yield, is reproduced fairly well by hydrodynamic models for central Pb-Pb collisions. In central Pb-Pb collisions at low and intermediate p(T), the p/phi(1020) ratio is flat in p(T), while the p/pi and phi(1020)/pi ratios show a pronounced increase and have similar shapes to each other. These results indicate that the shapes of the p(T) distributions of these particles in central Pb-Pb collisions are determined predominantly by the particle masses and radial flow. Finally, phi(1020) production in Pb-Pb collisions is enhanced, with respect to the yield in pp collisions and the yield of charged pions, by an amount similar to the Lambda and Xi.
|
|
| 41. |
- Abelev, B., et al.
(författare)
-
Measurement of electrons from semileptonic heavy-flavor hadron decays in pp collisions at root s=2.76 TeV
- 2015
-
Ingår i: Physical Review D (Particles, Fields, Gravitation and Cosmology). - 1550-2368. ; 91:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The p(T)-differential production cross section of electrons from semileptonic decays of heavy-flavor hadrons has been measured at midrapidity in proton-proton collisions at root s = 2.76 TeV in the transverse momentum range 0.5 < p(T) < 12 GeV/c with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The analysis was performed using minimum bias events and events triggered by the electromagnetic calorimeter. Predictions from perturbative QCD calculations agree with the data within the theoretical and experimental uncertainties.
|
|
| 42. |
|
|
| 43. |
- Burstein, R., et al.
(författare)
-
Mapping 123 million neonatal, infant and child deaths between 2000 and 2017
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Nature. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 574:7778, s. 353-358
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Since 2000, many countries have achieved considerable success in improving child survival, but localized progress remains unclear. To inform efforts towards United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3.2—to end preventable child deaths by 2030—we need consistently estimated data at the subnational level regarding child mortality rates and trends. Here we quantified, for the period 2000–2017, the subnational variation in mortality rates and number of deaths of neonates, infants and children under 5 years of age within 99 low- and middle-income countries using a geostatistical survival model. We estimated that 32% of children under 5 in these countries lived in districts that had attained rates of 25 or fewer child deaths per 1,000 live births by 2017, and that 58% of child deaths between 2000 and 2017 in these countries could have been averted in the absence of geographical inequality. This study enables the identification of high-mortality clusters, patterns of progress and geographical inequalities to inform appropriate investments and implementations that will help to improve the health of all populations. © 2019, The Author(s).
|
|
| 44. |
|
|
| 45. |
|
|
| 46. |
|
|
| 47. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
-
First measurement of e(+)e(-) -> pK(S)(0)(n)over-barK(-) + c.c. above open charm threshold
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 98:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The process e(+)e(-) -> pK(S)(0)(n) over barK(-) + c.c. and its intermediate processes are studied for the first time, using data samples collected with the BESIII detector at BEPCII at center-of-mass energies of 3.773, 4.008, 4.226, 4.258, 4.358, 4.416, and 4.600 GeV, with a total integrated luminosity of 7.4 fb(-1). The Born cross section of e(+)e(-) -> pK(S)(0)(n) over barK(-) + c.c. is measured at each center-of-mass energy, but no significant resonant structure in the measured cross-section line shape between 3.773 and 4.600 GeV is observed. No evident structure is detected in the pK(-), nK(S)(0), pK(S)(0), nK(+), p (n) over bar, or (KSK-)-K-0 invariant mass distributions except for Lambda(1520). The Born cross sections of e(+)e(-) -> Lambda(1520)(n) over barK(S)(0) + c.c. and e(+)e(-) -> Lambda(1520)(p) over barK(+) + c.c. are measured, and the 90% confidence level upper limits on the Born cross sections of e(+)e(-) -> Lambda(1520)(Lambda) over bar (1520) are determined at the seven center-of-mass energies. There is an evident difference in line shape and magnitude of the measured cross sections between e(+)e(-) -> Lambda(1520)(-> pK(-))(n) over barK(S)(0) and e(+)e(-) -> pK-(Lambda) over bar (1520)(-> (n) over barK(S)(0)).
|
|
| 48. |
|
|
| 49. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
-
Branching fraction measurement of J/ψ→KSKL and search for J/ψ→KSKS
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 96:11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using a sample of 1.31 x 10(9) J/Psi events collected with the BESIII detector at the BEPCII collider, we study the decays of J/Psi -> KSKL and KSKS. The branching fraction of J/Psi -> KSKL is determined to be B(J/Psi -> KSKL) = (1.93 +/- 0.01 (stat) +/- 0.05 (syst)) x 10(-4), which significantly improves on previous measurements. No clear signal is observed for the J/Psi -> KSKS process, and the upper limit at the 95% confidence level for its branching fraction is determined to be B(J/Psi -> KSKS) < 1.4 x 10(-8), which improves on the previous searches by 2 orders in magnitude and reaches the order of the Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen expectation.
|
|
| 50. |
- Ablikim, M., et al.
(författare)
-
Branching fraction measurements of psi (3686) -> gamma chi(cJ)
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Physical Review D. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 96:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using a sample of 106 million psi(3686) decays, the branching fractions of psi(3686) -> gamma chi(c0), psi(3686) -> gamma chi(c1), and psi(3686) -> gamma chi(c2) are measured with improved precision to be (9.389 +/- 0.014 +/- 0.332) %, (9.905 +/- 0.011 +/- 0.353) %, and (9.621 +/- 0.013 +/- 0.272) %, respectively, where the first uncertainties are statistical and the second ones are systematic. The product branching fractions of (psi 3686) -> gamma chi(c1), chi(c1) -> gamma J/psi (3686) -> gamma chi(c2), chi(c2) -> gamma J/psi and the branching fractions of chi(c1) -> gamma J/psi and chi(c2) -> gamma J/psi are also presented.
|
|
