| 3. |
- Golub, Malgorzata, et al.
(author)
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A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide : the ISIMIP Lake Sector
- 2022
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:11, s. 4597-4623
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.
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| 4. |
- Shah, Sanjiv J., et al.
(author)
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Effect of Tafamidis on Cardiac Function in Patients With Transthyretin Amyloid Cardiomyopathy
- 2024
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In: JAMA cardiology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2380-6583 .- 2380-6591. ; 9:1, s. 25-34
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IMPORTANCE: Tafamidis has been shown to improve survival in patients with transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy (ATTR-CM) compared with placebo. However, its effect on cardiac function has not been fully characterized.OBJECTIVE: To examine the effect of tafamidis on cardiac function in patients with ATTR-CM.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was an exploratory, post hoc analysis of the Tafamidis in Transthyretin Cardiomyopathy Clinical Trial (ATTR-ACT), a multicenter, international, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 randomized clinical trial conducted from December 2013 to February 2018. The ATTR-ACT included 48 sites in 13 counties and enrolled patients aged 18 to 90 years with ATTR-CM. Data were analyzed from July 2018 to September 2023.INTERVENTION: Patients were randomized to tafamidis meglumine, 80 mg or 20 mg, or placebo for 30 months.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Patients were categorized based on left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction at enrollment as having heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (≥50%), mildly reduced ejection fraction (41% to 49%), or reduced ejection fraction (≤40%). Changes from baseline to month 30 in LV ejection fraction, LV stroke volume, LV global longitudinal strain, and the ratio of early mitral inflow velocity to septal and lateral early diastolic mitral annular velocity (E/e′) were compared in patients receiving tafamidis, 80 mg, vs placebo.RESULTS: A total of 441 patients were randomized in ATTR-ACT, and 436 patients had available echocardiographic data. Of 436 included patients, 393 (90.1%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 74 (7) years. A total of 220 (50.5%), 119 (27.3%), and 97 (22.2%) had heart failure with preserved, mildly reduced, and reduced LV ejection fraction, respectively. Over 30 months, there was less pronounced worsening in 4 of the echocardiographic measures in patients receiving tafamidis, 80 mg (n = 176), vs placebo (n = 177) (least squares mean difference: LV stroke volume, 7.02 mL; 95% CI, 2.55-11.49; P = .002; LV global longitudinal strain, −1.02%; 95% CI, −1.73 to −0.31; P = .005; septal E/e′, −3.11; 95% CI, −5.50 to −0.72; P = .01; lateral E/e′, −2.35; 95% CI, −4.01 to −0.69; P = .006).CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Compared with placebo, tafamidis, 80 mg, attenuated the decline of LV systolic and diastolic function over 30 months in patients with ATTR-CM. Approximately half of patients had mildly reduced or reduced LV ejection fraction at enrollment, suggesting that ATTR-CM should be considered as a possible diagnosis in patients with heart failure regardless of underlying LV ejection fraction.
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