| 1. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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A Search for Neutrino Emission from Fast Radio Bursts with Six Years of IceCube Data
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 857:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a search for coincidence between IceCube TeV neutrinos and fast radio bursts (FRBs). During the search period from 2010 May 31 to 2016 May 12, a total of 29 FRBs with 13 unique locations have been detected in the whole sky. An unbinned maximum likelihood method was used to search for spatial and temporal coincidence between neutrinos and FRBs in expanding time windows, in both the northern and southern hemispheres. No significant correlation was found in six years of IceCube data. Therefore, we set upper limits on neutrino fluence emitted by FRBs as a function of time window duration. We set the most stringent limit obtained to date on neutrino fluence from FRBs with an E-2 energy spectrum assumed, which is 0.0021 GeV cm(-2) per burst for emission timescales up to similar to 10(2) s from the northern hemisphere stacking search.
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| 2. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Constraints on Minute-Scale Transient Astrophysical Neutrino Sources
- 2019
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 0031-9007 .- 1079-7114. ; 122:5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- High-energy neutrino emission has been predicted for several short-lived astrophysical transients including gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), core-collapse supernovae with choked jets, and neutron star mergers. IceCube's optical and x-ray follow-up program searches for such transient sources by looking for two or more muon neutrino candidates in directional coincidence and arriving within 100 s. The measured rate of neutrino alerts is consistent with the expected rate of chance coincidences of atmospheric background events and no likely electromagnetic counterparts have been identified in Swift follow-up observations. Here, we calculate generic bounds on the neutrino flux of short-lived transient sources. Assuming an E-2.5 neutrino spectrum, we find that the neutrino flux of rare sources, like long gamma-ray bursts, is constrained to < 5% of the detected astrophysical flux and the energy released in neutrinos (100 GeV to 10 PeV) by a median bright GRB-like source is < 10(52.5) erg. For a harder E-2.13 neutrino spectrum up to 30% of the flux could be produced by GRBs and the allowed median source energy is < 10(52) erg. A hypothetical population of transient sources has to be more common than 10(-5) Mpc(-3) yr(-1) (5 x 10(-8) Mpc(-3) yr(-1) for the E-2.13 spectrum) to account for the complete astrophysical neutrino flux.
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| 3. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Cosmic ray spectrum and composition from PeV to EeV using 3 years of data from IceTop and IceCube
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 100:8
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on measurements of the all-particle cosmic ray energy spectrum and composition in the PeV to EeV energy range using 3 years of data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. The IceTop detector measures cosmic ray induced air showers on the surface of the ice, from which the energy spectrum of cosmic rays is determined by making additional assumptions about the mass composition. A separate measurement is performed when IceTop data are analyzed in coincidence with the high-energy muon energy loss information from the deep in-ice IceCube detector. In this measurement, both the spectrum and the mass composition of the primary cosmic rays are simultaneously reconstructed using a neural network trained on observables from both detectors. The performance and relative advantages of these two distinct analyses are discussed, including the systematic uncertainties and the dependence on the hadronic interaction models, and both all-particle spectra as well as individual spectra for elemental groups are presented.
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| 4. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Detection of the Temporal Variation of the Sun's Cosmic Ray Shadow with the IceCube Detector
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : IOP PUBLISHING LTD. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 872:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report on the observation of a deficit in the cosmic ray flux from the directions of the Moon and Sun with five years of data taken by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. Between 2010 May and 2011 May the IceCube detector operated with 79 strings deployed in the glacial ice at the South Pole, and with 86 strings between 2011 May and 2015 May. A binned analysis is used to measure the relative deficit and significance of the cosmic ray shadows. Both the cosmic ray Moon and Sun shadows are detected with high statistical significance (>10σ) for each year. The results for the Moon shadow are consistent with previous analyses and verify the stability of the IceCube detector over time. This work represents the first observation of the Sun shadow with the IceCube detector. We show that the cosmic ray shadow of the Sun varies with time. These results make it possible to study cosmic ray transport near the Sun with future data from IceCube.
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| 5. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Differential limit on the extremely-high-energy cosmic neutrino flux in the presence of astrophysical background from nine years of IceCube data
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 98:6
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We report a quasidifferential upper limit on the extremely-high-energy (EHE) neutrino flux above 5 x 10(6) GeV based on an analysis of nine years of IceCube data. The astrophysical neutrino flux measured by IceCube extends to PeV energies, and it is a background flux when searching for an independent signal flux at higher energies, such as the cosmogenic neutrino signal. We have developed a new method to place robust limits on the EHE neutrino flux in the presence of an astrophysical background, whose spectrum has yet to be understood with high precision at PeV energies. A distinct event with a deposited energy above 10(6) GeV was found in the new two-year sample, in addition to the one event previously found in the seven-year EHE neutrino search. These two events represent a neutrino flux that is incompatible with predictions for a cosmogenic neutrino flux and are considered to be an astrophysical background in the current study. The obtained limit is the most stringent to date in the energy range between 5 x 10(6) and 2 x 10(10) GeV. This result constrains neutrino models predicting a three-flavor neutrino flux of E-nu(2)phi(nu e+nu mu+nu tau) similar or equal to 2 x 10(-8) GeV/cm(2) sec sr at 10(9) GeV. A significant part of the parameter space for EHE neutrino production scenarios assuming a proton-dominated composition of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays is disfavored independently of uncertain models of the extragalactic background light which previous IceCube constraints partially relied on.
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| 6. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Measurement of atmospheric tau neutrino appearance with IceCube DeepCore
- 2019
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 99:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a measurement of atmospheric tau neutrino appearance from oscillations with three years of data from the DeepCore subarray of the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. This analysis uses atmospheric neutrinos from the full sky with reconstructed energies between 5.6 and 56 GeV to search for a statistical excess of cascadelike neutrino events which are the signature of nu(tau) interactions. For CC thorn NC (CC-only) interactions, we measure the tau neutrino normalization to be 0.73(-0.24)(+0.30) (0.57(-0.30)(+0.36)) and exclude the absence of tau neutrino oscillations at a significance of 3.2 sigma (2.0 sigma) These results are consistent with, and of similar precision to, a confirmatory IceCube analysis also presented, as well as measurements performed by other experiments.
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| 7. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Measurements using the inelasticity distribution of multi-TeV neutrino interactions in IceCube
- 2019
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Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 99:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Inelasticity, the fraction of a neutrino's energy transferred to hadrons, is a quantity of interest in the study of astrophysical and atmospheric neutrino interactions at multi-TeV energies with IceCube. In this work, a sample of contained neutrino interactions in IceCube is obtained from five years of data and classified as 2650 tracks and 965 cascades. Tracks arise predominantly from charged-current nu(mu) interactions, and we demonstrate that we can reconstruct their energy and inelasticity. The inelasticity distribution is found to be consistent with the calculation of Cooper-Sarkar et al. across the energy range from similar to 1 to similar to 100 TeV. Along with cascades from neutrinos of all flavors, we also perform a fit over the energy, zenith angle, and inelasticity distribution to characterize the flux of astrophysical and atmospheric neutrinos. The energy spectrum of diffuse astrophysical neutrinos is described well by a power law in both track and cascade samples, and a best-fit index gamma = 2.62 +/- 0.07 is found in the energy range from 3.5 TeV to 2.6 PeV. Limits are set on the astrophysical flavor composition and are compatible with a ratio of (1/3 : 1/3 : 1/3)(circle plus). Exploiting the distinct inelasticity distribution of nu(mu) and (nu) over bar (mu) interactions, the atmospheric nu(mu) to (nu) over bar (mu) flux ratio in the energy range from 770 GeV to 21 TeV is found to be 0.77(-0.25)(+0.44) times the calculation by Honda et al. Lastly, the inelasticity distribution is also sensitive to neutrino charged-current charm production. The data are consistent with a leading-order calculation, with zero charm production excluded at 91% confidence level. Future analyses of inelasticity distributions may probe new physics that affects neutrino interactions both in and beyond the Standard Model.
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| 8. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
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Neutrino emission from the direction of the blazar TXS 0506+056 prior to the IceCube-170922A alert
- 2018
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 361:6398, s. 147-151
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A high-energy neutrino event detected by IceCube on 22 September 2017 was coincident in direction and time with a gamma-ray flare from the blazar TXS 0506+056. Prompted by this association, we investigated 9.5 years of IceCube neutrino observations to search for excess emission at the position of the blazar. We found an excess of high-energy neutrino events, with respect to atmospheric backgrounds, at that position between September 2014 and March 2015. Allowing for time-variable flux, this constitutes 3.5 sigma evidence for neutrino emission from the direction of TXS 0506+056, independent of and prior to the 2017 flaring episode. This suggests that blazars are identifiable sources of the high-energy astrophysical neutrino flux.
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| 9. |
- Aartsen, M. G., et al.
(författare)
-
Search for steady point-like sources in the astrophysical muon neutrino flux with 8 years of IceCube data
- 2019
-
Ingår i: European Physical Journal C. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6044 .- 1434-6052. ; 79:3
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The IceCube Collaboration has observed a high-energy astrophysical neutrino flux and recently found evidence for neutrino emission from the blazar TXS 0506+056. These results open a new window into the high-energy universe. However, the source or sources of most of the observed flux of astrophysical neutrinos remains uncertain. Here, a search for steady point-like neutrino sources is performed using an unbinned likelihood analysis. The method searches for a spatial accumulation of muon-neutrino events using the very high-statistics sample of about 497,000 neutrinos recorded by IceCube between 2009 and 2017. The median angular resolution is approximate to 1 degrees at 1 TeV and improves to approximate to 0.3 degrees for neutrinos with an energy of 1 PeV. Compared to previous analyses, this search is optimized for point-like neutrino emission with the same flux-characteristics as the observed astrophysical muon-neutrino flux and introduces an improved event-reconstruction and parametrization of the background. The result is an improvement in sensitivity to the muon-neutrino flux compared to the previous analysis of approximate to 35% assuming an E-2 spectrum. The sensitivity on the muon-neutrino flux is at a level of E2dN/dE=310-13s-1. No new evidence for neutrino sources is found in a full sky scan and in an a priori candidate source list that is motivated by gamma-ray observations. Furthermore, no significant excesses above background are found from populations of sub-threshold sources. The implications of the non-observation for potential source classes are discussed.
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| 10. |
- Garrappa, S., et al.
(författare)
-
Investigation of Two Fermi-LAT Gamma-Ray Blazars Coincident with High-energy Neutrinos Detected by IceCube
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 880:2
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- After the identification of the gamma-ray blazar TXS 0506+056 as the first compelling IceCube neutrino source candidate, we perform a systematic analysis of all high-energy neutrino events satisfying the IceCube realtime trigger criteria. We find one additional known gamma-ray source, the blazar GB6 J1040+0617, in spatial coincidence with a neutrino in this sample. The chance probability of this coincidence is 30% after trial correction. For the first time, we present a systematic study of the gamma-ray flux, spectral and optical variability, and multiwavelength behavior of GB6 J1040+0617 and compare it to TXS 0506+056. We find that TXS 0506+056 shows strong flux variability in the Fermi-Large Area Telescope gamma-ray band, being in an active state around the arrival of IceCube-170922A, but in a low state during the archival IceCube neutrino flare in 2014/15. In both cases the spectral shape is statistically compatible (<= 2 sigma) with the average spectrum showing no indication of a significant relative increase of a high-energy component. While the association of GB6 J1040+0617 with the neutrino is consistent with background expectations, the source appears to be a plausible neutrino source candidate based on its energetics and multiwavelength features, namely a bright optical flare and modestly increased gamma-ray activity. Finding one or two neutrinos originating from gamma-ray blazars in the given sample of high-energy neutrinos is consistent with previously derived limits of neutrino emission from gamma-ray blazars, indicating the sources of the majority of cosmic high-energy neutrinos remain unknown.
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| 11. |
- Kankare, E., et al.
(författare)
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Search for transient optical counterparts to high-energy IceCube neutrinos with Pan-STARRS1
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 626
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In order to identify the sources of the observed diffuse high-energy neutrino flux, it is crucial to discover their electromagnetic counterparts. To increase the sensitivity of detecting counterparts of transient or variable sources by telescopes with a limited field of view, IceCube began releasing alerts for single high-energy (E-v > 60 TeV) neutrino detections with sky localisation regions of order 1 degrees radius in 2016. We used Pan-STARRS1 to follow-up five of these alerts during 2016-2017 to search for any optical transients that may be related to the neutrinos. Typically 10-20 faint m(ip1) less than or similar to 22.5 mag) extragalactic transients are found within the Pan-STARRS1 footprints and are generally consistent with being unrelated field supernovae (SNe) and AGN. We looked for unusual properties of the detected transients, such as temporal coincidence of explosion epoch with the IceCube timestamp, or other peculiar light curve and physical properties. We found only one transient that had properties worthy of a specific follow-up. In the Pan-STARRS1 imaging for IceCube-160427A (probability to be of astrophysical origin of similar to 50%), we found a SN PS16cgx, located at 10.0' from the nominal IceCube direction. Spectroscopic observations of PS16cgx showed that it was an H-poor SN at redshift z = 0.2895 +/- 0.0001. The spectra and light curve resemble some high-energy Type Ic SNe, raising the possibility of a jet driven SN with an explosion epoch temporally coincident with the neutrino detection. However, distinguishing Type Ia and Type Ic SNe at this redshift is notoriously difficult. Based on all available data we conclude that the transient is more likely to be a Type Ia with relatively weak Sin absorption and a fairly normal rest-frame r-band light curve. If, as predicted, there is no high-energy neutrino emission from Type Ia SNe, then PS16cgx must be a random coincidence, and unrelated to the IceCube-160427A. We find no other plausible optical transient for any of the five IceCube events observed down to a 5 sigma limiting magnitude of mip1 approximate to 22 mag, between 1 day and 25 days after detection.
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| 12. |
- Busse, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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A FINITE ELEMENT STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF CRYSTAL ORIENTATION AND MISALIGNMENT ON THE CRACK DRIVING FORCE IN A SINGLE-CRYSTAL SUPERALLOY
- 2016
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Ingår i: PROCEEDINGS OF THE ASME TURBO EXPO: TURBINE TECHNICAL CONFERENCE AND EXPOSITION, 2016, VOL 7A. - : AMER SOC MECHANICAL ENGINEERS. - 9780791849835
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The elastic and plastic anisotropy of the single-crystal materials bring many difficulties in terms of modeling, evaluation and prediction of fatigue crack growth. In this paper a single-crystal material model has been adopted to a finite element-environment, which is paired with a crack growth tool. All simulations are performed in a three-dimensional context. This methodology makes it possible to analyze complex finite element-models, which are more application-near than traditional two-dimensional models. The influence of the crystal orientation, as well as the influence of misalignments of the crystal orientation due to the casting process are investigated. It is shown that both the crystal orientation and the misalignment from the ideal crystal orientation are important for the crack driving force. The realistic maximum limit of 10 degrees misalignment is considered. It can be seen that crack growth behavior is highly influenced by the misalignment. This knowledge is of great interest for the industry in order to evaluate the crack growth in single-crystal components more accurately.
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| 13. |
- Busse, Christian, 1989-
(författare)
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Aspects of Crack Growth in Single-Crystal Nickel-Base Superalloys
- 2017
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This Licentiate of Engineering thesis is a product of the results generated in the research project KME-702, which comprises modelling, microstructure investigations and material testing of cast nickel-base superalloys.The main objective of this work is to model the fatigue crack propagation behaviour in single-crystal nickel-base superalloys. To achieve this, the influence of the crystal orientations on the cracking behaviour is assessed. The results show that the crystal orientation is strongly affecting the material response and must be accounted for. Furthermore, a linear elastic crack driving force parameter suitable for describing crystallographic cracking has been developed. This parameter is based on resolved anisotropic stress intensity factors and is able to predict the correct crystallographic cracking plane after a transition from a Mode I crack. Finally, a method to account for inelastic deformations in a linear elastic fracture mechanics context was investigated. A residual stress field is extracted from an uncracked finite-element model with a perfectly plastic material model and superimposed on the stress field from the cracked model with a linear elastic material model to account for the inelastic deformations during the determination of the crack driving force. The modelling work is validated by material testing on two different specimen geometries at different temperatures.This Licentiate of Engineering thesis consists of two parts, where Part I gives an introduction and background to the research area, while Part II consists of three papers.
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| 14. |
- Busse, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Crystallographic crack propagation rate in single-crystal nickel-base superalloys
- 2018
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Ingår i: 12TH INTERNATIONAL FATIGUE CONGRESS (FATIGUE 2018). - : E D P SCIENCES.
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Single-crystal nickel-base superalloys are often used in the hot sections of gas turbines due to their good mechanical properties at high temperatures such as enhanced creep resistance. However, the anisotropic material properties of these materials bring many difficulties in terms of modelling and crack growth prediction. Cracks tend to switch cracking mode from Mode I cracking to crystallographic cracking. Crystallographic crack growth is often associated with a decrease in crack propagation life compared to Mode I cracking and this must be taken into account for reliable component lifing. In this paper a method to evaluate the crystallographic crack propagation rate related to a crystallographic crack driving force parameter is presented. The crystallographic crack growth rate is determined by an evaluation of heat tints on the fracture surface of a specimen subjected to fatigue loading. The complicated crack geometry including two crystallographic crack fronts is modelled in a three dimensional finite element context. The crack driving force parameter is determined by calculating anisotropic stress intensity factors along the two crystallographic crack fronts by finite-element simulations and post-processing the data in a fracture mechanics tool that resolves the stress intensity factors on the crystallographic slip planes in the slip directions. The evaluated crack propagation rate shows a good correlation for both considered crystallographic cracks fronts.
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| 15. |
- Busse, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Evaluation of the crystallographic fatigue crack growth rate in a single-crystal nickel-base superalloy
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Fatigue. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 0142-1123 .- 1879-3452. ; 127, s. 259-267
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cracks in single-crystal nickel-base superalloys have been observed to switch cracking mode from Mode I to crystallographic cracking. The crack propagation rate is usually higher on the crystallographic planes compared to Mode I, which is important to account for in crack growth life predictions. In this paper, a method to evaluate the crystallographic fatigue crack growth rate, based on a previously developed crystallographic crack driving force parameter, is presented. The crystallographic crack growth rate was determined by evaluating heat tints on the fracture surfaces of the test specimens from the experiments. Complicated crack geometries including multiple crystallographic crack fronts were modelled in a three dimensional finite element context, The data points of the crystallographic fatigue crack growth rate collapse on a narrow scatter band for the crystallographic cracks indicating a correlation with the previously developed crystallographic crack driving force.
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| 16. |
- Busse, Christian, 1989-
(författare)
-
Modelling of Crack Growth in Single-Crystal Nickel-Base Superalloys
- 2019
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This dissertation was produced at the Division of Solid Mechanics at Linköping University and is part of a research project, which comprises modelling, microstructure investigations and material testing of cast nickel-base superalloys. The main objective of this work was to deepen the understanding of the fracture behaviour of single-crystal nickel-base superalloys and to develop a model to predict the fatigue crack growth behaviour. Frequently, crack growth in these materials has been observed to follow one of two distinct cracking modes; Mode I like cracking perpendicular to the loading direction or crystallographic crack growth on the octahedral {111}-planes, where the latter is associated with an increased fatigue crack growth rate. Thus, it is of major importance to account for this behaviour in component life prediction. Consequently, a model for the prediction of the transition of cracking modes and the correct active crystallographic plane, i.e. the crack path, and the crystallographic crack growth rate has been developed. This model is based on the evaluation of appropriate crack driving forces using three-dimensional finite-element simulations. A special focus was given towards the influence of the crystallographic orientation on the fracture behaviour. Further, a model to incorporate residual stresses in the crack growth modelling is presented. All modelling work is calibrated and validated by experiments on different specimen geometries with different crystallographic orientations. This dissertation consists of two parts, where Part I gives an introduction and background to the field of research, while Part II consists of six appended papers.
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| 17. |
- Busse, Christian, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
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Prediction of crystallographic cracking planes in single-crystal nickel-base superalloys
- 2018
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Ingår i: Engineering Fracture Mechanics. - : Elsevier. - 0013-7944 .- 1873-7315. ; 196, s. 206-223
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The inherent anisotropy of single-crystal nickel-base superalloys brings many difficulties in terms of modelling, evaluation and prediction of fatigue crack growth. Two models to predict on which crystallographic plane cracking will occur is presented. The models are based on anisotropic stress intensity factors resolved on crystallographic slip planes calculated in a three-dimensional finite-element context. The developed models have been compared to experiments on two different test specimen geometries. The results show that a correct prediction of the crystallographic cracking plane can be achieved. This knowledge is of great interest for the industry and academia to better understand and predict crack growth in single-crystal materials.
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| 18. |
- Busse, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Three-Dimensional LEFM Prediction of Fatigue Crack Propagation in a Gas Turbine Disk Material at Component Near Conditions
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of engineering for gas turbines and power. - : ASME. - 0742-4795 .- 1528-8919. ; 138:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, the possibility to use linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM), with and without a superimposed residual stress field, to predict fatigue crack propagation in the gas turbine disk material Inconel 718 has been studied. A temperature of 400 degrees C and applied strain ranges corresponding to component near conditions have been considered. A three-dimensional crack propagation software was used for determining the stress intensity factors (SIFs) along the crack path. In the first approach, a linear elastic material behavior was used when analyzing the material response. The second approach extracts the residual stresses from an uncracked model with perfectly plastic material behavior after one loading cycle. As a benchmark, the investigated methods are compared to experimental tests, where the cyclic lifetimes were calculated by an integration of Paris law. When comparing the results, it can be concluded that the investigated approaches give good results, at least for longer cracks, even though plastic flow was taking place in the specimen. The pure linear elastic simulation overestimates the crack growth for all crack lengths and gives conservative results over all considered crack lengths. Noteworthy with this work is that the 3D-crack propagation could be predicted with the two considered methods in an LEFM context, although plastic flow was present in the specimens during the experiments.
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| 19. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 20. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 21. |
- Ohlin, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Inferred Allelic Variants of Immunoglobulin Receptor Genes : A System for Their Evaluation, Documentation, and Naming
- 2019
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Immunology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-3224. ; 10
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Immunoglobulins or antibodies are the main effector molecules of the B-cell lineage and are encoded by hundreds of variable (V), diversity (D), and joining (J) germline genes, which recombine to generate enormous IG diversity. Recently, high-throughput adaptive immune receptor repertoire sequencing (AIRR-seq) of recombined V-(D)-J genes has offered unprecedented insights into the dynamics of IG repertoires in health and disease. Faithful biological interpretation of AIRR-seq studies depends upon the annotation of raw AIRR-seq data, using reference germline gene databases to identify the germline genes within each rearrangement. Existing reference databases are incomplete, as shown by recent AIRR-seq studies that have inferred the existence of many previously unreported polymorphisms. Completing the documentation of genetic variation in germline gene databases is therefore of crucial importance. Lymphocyte receptor genes and alleles are currently assigned by the Immunoglobulins, T cell Receptors and Major Histocompatibility Nomenclature Subcommittee of the International Union of Immunological Societies (IUIS) and managed in IMGT®, the international ImMunoGeneTics information system® (IMGT). In 2017, the IMGT Group reached agreement with a group of AIRR-seq researchers on the principles of a streamlined process for identifying and naming inferred allelic sequences, for their incorporation into IMGT®. These researchers represented the AIRR Community, a network of over 300 researchers whose objective is to promote all aspects of immunoglobulin and T-cell receptor repertoire studies, including the standardization of experimental and computational aspects of AIRR-seq data generation and analysis. The Inferred Allele Review Committee (IARC) was established by the AIRR Community to devise policies, criteria, and procedures to perform this function. Formalized evaluations of novel inferred sequences have now begun and submissions are invited via a new dedicated portal (https://ogrdb.airr-community.org). Here, we summarize recommendations developed by the IARC-focusing, to begin with, on human IGHV genes-with the goal of facilitating the acceptance of inferred allelic variants of germline IGHV genes. We believe that this initiative will improve the quality of AIRR-seq studies by facilitating the description of human IG germline gene variation, and that in time, it will expand to the documentation of TR and IG genes in many vertebrate species.
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| 22. |
- Palmert, Frans, et al.
(författare)
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Fatigue crack growth behaviour of an alternative single crystal nickel base superalloy
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Fatigue. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 0142-1123 .- 1879-3452. ; 109, s. 166-181
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The fatigue crack growth behaviour of a single crystal nickel base superalloy was studied at three different temperatures (20 degrees C, 500 degrees C and 750 degrees C) and three different crystallographic orientations. At the highest testing temperature, the influence of hold time at maximum load was also evaluated. Under some of the testing conditions, crystallographic crack growth occurred along {1 1 1} planes, which were non-perpendicular to the loading direction. The propensity for crystallographic cracking was observed to be strongly temperature dependent with a maximum occurring at the intermediate testing temperature of 500 degrees C. During non-crystallographic, Mode I crack growth the crack tended to avoid the gamma particles and propagated preferentially through the gamma matrix.
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