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- Thomas, HS, et al.
(författare)
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- 2019
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
- Wang, H. D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 6. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 9. |
- Ahlberg, Mats Steinholtz, et al.
(författare)
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PCASTt/SPCG-17-A randomised trial of active surveillance in prostate cancer: Rationale and design
- 2019
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction Overtreatment of localised prostate cancer is substantial despite increased use of active surveillance. No randomised trials help define how to monitor patients or when to initiate treatment with curative intent. Methods and analysis A randomised, multicentre, intervention trial designed to evaluate the safety of an MRI-based active surveillance protocol, with standardised triggers for repeated biopsies and radical treatment. The aim is to reduce overtreatment of prostate cancer. 2000 men will be randomly allocated to either surveillance according to current practice or to standardised triggers at centres in Sweden, Norway, Finland and the UK. Men diagnosed in the past 12 months with prostate cancer, ≤T2a, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) <15 ng/mL, PSA density ≤0.2 ng/mL/cc, any International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grade 1 are eligible. Men with ISUP grade 2 in <30% of cores on systematic biopsy and <10 mm cancer in one core on systematic or targeted biopsy are also eligible. Men diagnosed on systematic biopsy should have an MRI and targeted biopsies against Prostate Imaging and Reporting Data System V.2 3-5 lesions before inclusion. Identical follow-up in the two study arms: biannual PSA testing, yearly clinical examination and MRI every second year. In the experimental arm, standardised triggers based on MRI and PSA density elicit repeated biopsies. MRI and histopathological progression trigger radical treatment. Primary outcome measure is progression-free survival. Secondary outcome measures are cumulative incidence of metastatic disease, treatments with curative intent, pT3-4 at radical prostatectomy, switch to watchful waiting, prostate cancer mortality and quality of life. Inclusion started in October 2016 and in October 2018; 275 patients have been enrolled. Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval was obtained in each participating country. Results for the primary and secondary outcome measures will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals. Trial registration number NCT02914873.
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| 10. |
- Arrillaga-Romany, Isabel, et al.
(författare)
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Performance of a Hospital Pathway for Patients With a New Single Brain Mass
- 2019
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Ingår i: JOURNAL OF ONCOLOGY PRACTICE. - : American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO). - 1554-7477. ; 15:3, s. e211-e218
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- WHAT WE FOUND:Length of stay and time to surgery were significantly reduced after implementation of this admission pathway. Readmission rate was not adversely affected by this change. The protocol also significantly reduced the number of unnecessary body computed tomography imaging studies obtained in this patient population.CONFOUNDING FACTORS/REAL-LIFE IMPLICATIONS:The results of this study should be interpreted with their retrospective nature in mind. Further, analysis of this admission pathway did not take into consideration patient perspective or cost implications. Finally, the authors recognize that the resources for such an operational shift may only be found in large, tertiary, referral centers.Optimized specialized care for patients with new single brain masses promotes improved health care outcomes. It may also predictively reduce health care costs and improve patient satisfaction. More research is needed in this field. Limitations to our study included the inherent limitations of a retrospective pre-post design that can make it difficult to separate the effect of a specific intervention from other factors that change over time. In addition, assessment of patient satisfaction, use of diagnostic tests beyond body imaging, and advanced cost analysis could have strengthened this study. Lastly, it should be noted that the applicability of our approach may be limited to major tertiary centers with enough resources to implement such a pathway.Purpose:To reduce care variation and improve the management of patients with newly identified single brain masses and no history of cancer, we implemented a dedicated admission protocol.Methods:We reviewed records of 206 patients who presented to our emergency department between January 2010 and May 2016 with a new single brain mass but no history of cancer. Patients admitted before the protocol implementation were designated the pre-implementation group (PRE), and those admitted after implementation were designated the post-implementation group (POST).Results:Ninety-six patients were in the PRE group and 110 in the POST group. Length of stay for POST patients was significantly shorter than for PRE patients (6 v 7 days, respectively; P = .042), and this effect was more robust after excluding the 66 patients who were discharged to rehabilitation, skilled nursing, or hospice facilities (5 v 7 days, respectively; P = .001). Additional comparison of POST with PRE patients showed that time to surgery was significantly reduced (2.7 v 3.5 days, respectively; P = .006) and that computed tomography scans of the chest, abdomen, and pelvis were reduced (12% v 47%, respectively; P < .001). No difference was found in the 30-day readmission rates. For patients with GBM, there also was no significant difference in time to initiation of chemoradiation or in median overall survival.Conclusion:Implementation of a specialized admission pathway for patients with a new single brain mass decreased average length of hospital stay and time to surgery and reduced unnecessary diagnostic imaging tests in patients with primary brain tumors.
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| 11. |
- Kappos, Ludwig, et al.
(författare)
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Siponimod versus placebo in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (EXPAND): a double-blind, randomised, phase 3 study
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 391, s. 1263-1273
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2018 Elsevier Ltd Background: No treatment has consistently shown efficacy in slowing disability progression in patients with secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS). We assessed the effect of siponimod, a selective sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) receptor 1,5 modulator, on disability progression in patients with SPMS. Methods: This event-driven and exposure-driven, double-blind, phase 3 trial was done at 292 hospital clinics and specialised multiple sclerosis centres in 31 countries. Using interactive response technology to assign numbers linked to treatme nt arms, patients (age 18–60 years) with SPMS and an Expanded Disability Status Scale score of 3·0–6·5 were randomly assigned (2:1) to once daily oral siponimod 2 mg or placebo for up to 3 years or until the occurrence of a prespecified number of confirmed disability progression (CDP) events. The primary endpoint was time to 3-month CDP. Efficacy was assessed for the full analysis set (ie, all randomly assigned and treated patients); safety was assessed for the safety set. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01665144. Findings: 1651 patients were randomly assigned between Feb 5, 2013, and June 2, 2015 (1105 to the siponimod group, and 546 to the placebo group). One patient did not sign the consent form, and five patients did not receive study drug, all of whom were in the siponimod group. 1645 patients were included in the analyses (1099 in the siponimod group and 546 in the placebo). At baseline, the mean time since first multiple sclerosis symptoms was 16·8 years (SD 8·3), and the mean time since conversion to SPMS was 3·8 years (SD 3·5); 1055 (64%) patients had not relapsed in the previous 2 years, and 918 (56%) of 1651 needed walking assistance. 903 (82%) patients receiving siponimod and 424 (78%) patients receiving placebo completed the study. 288 (26%) of 1096 patients receiving siponimod and 173 (32%) of 545 patients receiving placebo had 3-month CDP (hazard ratio 0·79, 95% CI 0·65–0·95; relative risk reduction 21%; p=0·013). Adverse events occurred in 975 (89%) of 1099 patients receiving siponimod versus 445 (82%) of 546 patients receiving placebo; serious adverse events were reported for 197 (18%) patients in the siponimod group versus 83 (15%) patients in the placebo group. Lymphopenia, increased liver transaminase concentration, bradycardia and bradyarrhythmia at treatment initiation, macular oedema, hypertension, varicella zoster reactivation, and convulsions occurred more frequently with siponimod than with placebo. Initial dose titration mitigated cardiac first-dose effects. Frequencies of infections, malignancies, and fatalities did not differ between groups. Interpretation: Siponimod reduced the risk of disability progression with a safety profile similar to that of other S1P modulators and is likely to be a useful treatment for SPMS. Funding: Novartis Pharma AG.
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| 12. |
- Kinsella, N., et al.
(författare)
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Active surveillance for prostate cancer: A systematic review of contemporary worldwide practices
- 2018
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Ingår i: Translational Andrology and Urology. - : AME Publishing Company. - 2223-4683 .- 2223-4691. ; 7:1, s. 83-97
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the last decade, active surveillance (AS) has emerged as an acceptable choice for low-risk prostate cancer (PC), however there is discordance amongst large AS cohort studies with respect to entry and monitoring protocols. We systematically reviewed worldwide AS practices in studies reporting =5 years follow-up. We searched PubMed and Medline 2000-now and identified 13 AS cohorts. Three key areas were identified: (I) patient selection; (II) monitoring protocols; (III) triggers for intervention-(I) all studies defined clinically localised PC diagnosis as T2b disease or less and most agreed on prostate-specific antigen (PSA) threshold ( < 10 μg/L) and Gleason score threshold (3+3). Inconsistency was most notable regarding pathologic factors (e.g., number of positive cores); (II) all agreed on PSA surveillance as crucial for monitoring, and most agreed that confirmatory biopsy was required within 12 months of initiation. No consensus was reached on optimal timing of digital rectal examination (DRE), general health assessment or re-biopsy strategies thereafter; (III) there was no universal agreement for intervention triggers, although Gleason score, number or percentage of positive cancer cores, maximum cancer length (MCL) and PSA doubling time were used by several studies. Some also used imaging or re-biopsy. Despite consistent high progression-free/cancer-free survival and conversion-to-treatment rates, heterogeneity exists amongst these large AS cohorts. Combining existing evidence and gathering more long-term evidence [e.g., the Movember's Global AS database or additional information on use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)] is needed to derive a broadly supported guideline to reduce variation in clinical practice. © Translational Andrology and Urology.
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| 13. |
- Kinsella, N., et al.
(författare)
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Factors Influencing Men's Choice of and Adherence to Active Surveillance for Low-risk Prostate Cancer: A Mixed-method Systematic Review
- 2018
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Ingår i: European Urology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0302-2838 .- 1873-7560. ; 74:3, s. 261-280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context: Despite support for active surveillance (AS) as a first treatment choice for men with low-risk prostate cancer (PC), this strategy is largely underutilised. Objective: To systematically review barriers and facilitators to selecting and adhering to AS for low-risk PC. Evidence acquisition: We searched PsychINFO, PubMed, Medline 2000-now, Embase, CINAHL, and Cochrane Central databases between 2002 and 2017 using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) statement. The Purpose, Respondents, Explanation, Findings and Significance (PREFS) and Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) quality criteria were applied. Forty-seven studies were identified. Evidence synthesis: Key themes emerged as factors influencing both choice and adherence to AS: (1) patient and tumour factors (age, comorbidities, knowledge, education, socioeconomic status, family history, grade, tumour volume, and fear of progression/side effects); (2) family and social support; (3) provider (speciality, communication, and attitudes); (4) healthcare organisation (geography and type of practice); and (5) health policy (guidelines, year, and awareness). Conclusions: Many factors influence men's choice and adherence to AS on multiple levels. It is important to learn from the experience of other chronic health conditions as well as from institutions/countries that are making significant headway in appropriately recruiting men to AS protocols, through standardised patient information, clinician education, and nationally agreed guidelines, to ultimately decrease heterogeneity in AS practice. Patient summary: We reviewed the scientific literature for factors affecting men's choice and adherence to active surveillance (AS) for low-risk prostate cancer. Our findings suggest that the use of AS could be increased by addressing a variety of factors such as information, psychosocial support, clinician education, and standardised guidelines. (C) 2018 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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| 14. |
- Komatsu, Kimberly J., et al.
(författare)
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Global change effects on plant communities are magnified by time and the number of global change factors imposed
- 2019
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 116:36, s. 17867-17873
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Accurate prediction of community responses to global change drivers (GCDs) is critical given the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem services. There is consensus that human activities are driving species extinctions at the global scale, but debate remains over whether GCDs are systematically altering local communities worldwide. Across 105 experiments that included over 400 experimental manipulations, we found evidence for a lagged response of herbaceous plant communities to GCDs caused by shifts in the identities and relative abundances of species, often without a corresponding difference in species richness. These results provide evidence that community responses are pervasive across a wide variety of GCDs on long-term temporal scales and that these responses increase in strength when multiple GCDs are simultaneously imposed.Global change drivers (GCDs) are expected to alter community structure and consequently, the services that ecosystems provide. Yet, few experimental investigations have examined effects of GCDs on plant community structure across multiple ecosystem types, and those that do exist present conflicting patterns. In an unprecedented global synthesis of over 100 experiments that manipulated factors linked to GCDs, we show that herbaceous plant community responses depend on experimental manipulation length and number of factors manipulated. We found that plant communities are fairly resistant to experimentally manipulated GCDs in the short term (<10 y). In contrast, long-term (≥10 y) experiments show increasing community divergence of treatments from control conditions. Surprisingly, these community responses occurred with similar frequency across the GCD types manipulated in our database. However, community responses were more common when 3 or more GCDs were simultaneously manipulated, suggesting the emergence of additive or synergistic effects of multiple drivers, particularly over long time periods. In half of the cases, GCD manipulations caused a difference in community composition without a corresponding species richness difference, indicating that species reordering or replacement is an important mechanism of community responses to GCDs and should be given greater consideration when examining consequences of GCDs for the biodiversity–ecosystem function relationship. Human activities are currently driving unparalleled global changes worldwide. Our analyses provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that these human activities may have widespread impacts on plant community composition globally, which will increase in frequency over time and be greater in areas where communities face multiple GCDs simultaneously.
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