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1.
  • Naghavi, M., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1151-1210
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. Methods We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. Findings The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72.3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71.2-73.2) of deaths in 2016 with 19.3% (18.5-20.4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8.43% (8.00-8.67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1.80 million deaths (95% UI 1.59 million to 1.89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2.89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1.59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations. Other leading causes of YLLs for which YLLs were notably lower than expected included neonatal preterm birth complications in many locations in both south Asia and southeast Asia, and cerebrovascular disease in western Europe. Interpretation The past 37 years have featured declining rates of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases across all quintiles of SDI, with faster than expected gains for many locations relative to their SDI. A global shift towards deaths at older ages suggests success in reducing many causes of early death. YLLs have increased globally for causes such as diabetes mellitus or some neoplasms, and in some locations for causes such as drug use disorders, and conflict and terrorism. Increasing levels of YLLs might reflect outcomes from conditions that required high levels of care but for which effective treatments remain elusive, potentially increasing costs to health systems. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Sheena, B. S., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:9, s. 796-829
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-ofsample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4 center dot 1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3 center dot 7 to 4 center dot 5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31 center dot 3% (29 center dot 0 to 33 center dot 9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76 center dot 8% (76 center dot 2 to 77 center dot 5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5 center dot 9% [-5 center dot 6 to 19 center dot 2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2 center dot 9% [-5 center dot 9 to 11 center dot 3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.
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  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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  • Fitzmaurice, C., et al. (författare)
  • Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-years for 32 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2015. A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Jama Oncology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2374-2445 .- 2374-2437. ; 3:4, s. 524-548
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IMPORTANCE Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globallywas prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancerwas the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancerwas breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancerwas also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs forwomen (523000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1%[95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.
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  • Fitzmaurice, C., et al. (författare)
  • The Global Burden of Cancer 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: JAMA Oncology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 1:4, s. 505-527
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IMPORTANCE: Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. Current estimates of cancer burden in individual countries and regions are necessary to inform local cancer control strategies. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 28 cancers in 188 countries by sex from 1990 to 2013. EVIDENCE REVIEW: The general methodology of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2013 study was used. Cancer registries were the source for cancer incidence data as well as mortality incidence (MI) ratios. Sources for cause of death data include vital registration system data, verbal autopsy studies, and other sources. The MI ratios were used to transform incidence data to mortality estimates and cause of death estimates to incidence estimates. Cancer prevalence was estimated using MI ratios as surrogates for survival data; YLDs were calculated by multiplying prevalence estimates with disability weights, which were derived from population-based surveys; YLLs were computed by multiplying the number of estimated cancer deaths at each age with a reference life expectancy; and DALYs were calculated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. FINDINGS: In 2013 there were 14.9 million incident cancer cases, 8.2 million deaths, and 196.3 million DALYs. Prostate cancer was the leading cause for cancer incidence (1.4 million) for men and breast cancer for women (1.8 million). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung (TBL) cancer was the leading cause for cancer death in men and women, with 1.6 million deaths. For men, TBL cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (24.9 million). For women, breast cancer was the leading cause of DALYs (13.1 million). Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) per 100 000 and age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) per 100 000 for both sexes in 2013 were higher in developing vs developed countries for stomach cancer (ASIR, 17 vs 14; ASDR, 15 vs 11), liver cancer (ASIR, 15 vs 7; ASDR, 16 vs 7), esophageal cancer (ASIR, 9 vs 4; ASDR, 9 vs 4), cervical cancer (ASIR, 8 vs 5; ASDR, 4 vs 2), lip and oral cavity cancer (ASIR, 7 vs 6; ASDR, 2 vs 2), and nasopharyngeal cancer (ASIR, 1.5 vs 0.4; ASDR, 1.2 vs 0.3). Between 1990 and 2013, ASIRs for all cancers combined (except nonmelanoma skin cancer and Kaposi sarcoma) increased by more than 10% in 113 countries and decreased by more than 10% in 12 of 188 countries. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Cancer poses a major threat to public health worldwide, and incidence rates have increased in most countries since 1990. The trend is a particular threat to developing nations with health systems that are ill-equipped to deal with complex and expensive cancer treatments. The annual update on the Global Burden of Cancer will provide all stakeholders with timely estimates to guide policy efforts in cancer prevention, screening, treatment, and palliation. Copyright 2015 American Medical Association. All rights reserved.
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  • Hodgson, L., et al. (författare)
  • Interassociation consensus recommendations for pitch-side emergency care and personal protective equipment for elite sport during the COVID-19 pandemic
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: British Journal of Sports Medicine. - : BMJ. - 0306-3674 .- 1473-0480. ; 55:10, s. 531-538
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The COVID-19 pandemic has necessitated many novel responses in healthcare including sport and exercise medicine. The cessation of elite sport almost globally has had significant economic implications and resulted in pressure to resume sport in very controlled conditions. This includes protecting pitch-side medical staff and players from infection. The ongoing prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and the desire to resume professional sport required urgent best practice guidelines to be developed so that sport could be resumed as safely as possible. This set of best practice recommendations assembles early evidence for managing SARS-CoV-2 and integrates expert opinion to provide a uniform and pragmatic approach to enhance on-field and pitch-side safety for the clinician and player. The nature of SARS-CoV-2 transmission creates new hazards during resuscitation and emergency care and procedures. Recommendations for the use and type of personal protective equipment during on-field or pitch-side emergency medical care is provided based on the clinical scenario and projected risk of viral transmission.
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  • Both, C., et al. (författare)
  • Large-scale geographical variation confirms that climate change causes birds to lay earlier
  • 2004
  • Ingår i: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B-Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8452 .- 1471-2954. ; 271:1549, s. 1657-1662
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Advances in the phenology of organisms are often attributed to climate change, but alternatively, may reflect a publication bias towards advances and may be caused by environmental factors unrelated to climate change. Both factors are investigated using the breeding dates of 25 long-term studied populations of Ficedula flycatchers across Europe. Trends in spring temperature varied markedly between study sites, and across populations the advancement of laying date was stronger in areas where the spring temperatures increased more, giving support to the theory that climate change causally affects breeding date advancement.
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  • Both, C., et al. (författare)
  • Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca travelling from Africa to breed in Europe: differential effects of winter and migration conditions on breeding date
  • 2006
  • Ingår i: ARDEA. - 0373-2266 .- 2213-1175. ; 94:3, s. 511-525
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In most bird species there is only a short time window available for optimal breeding due to variation in ecological conditions in a seasonal environment. Long-distance migrants must travel before they start breeding, and conditions at the wintering grounds and during migration may affect travelling speed and hence arrival and breeding dates. These effects are to a large extent determined by climate variables such as rainfall and temperature, and need to be identified to predict how well species can adapt to climate change. In this paper we analyse effects of vegetation growth on the wintering grounds and sites en route on the annual timing of breeding of 17 populations of Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca studied between 1982–2000. Timing of breeding was largely correlated with local spring temperatures, supplemented by striking effects of African vegetation and NAO. Populations differed in the effects of vegetation growth on the wintering grounds, and on their northern African staging grounds, as well as ecological conditions in Europe as measured by the winter NAO. In general, early breeding populations (low altitude, western European populations) bred earlier in years with more vegetation in the Northern Sahel zone, as well as in Northern Africa. In contrast, late breeding populations (high altitude and northern and eastern populations) advanced their breeding dates when circumstances in Europe were more advanced (high NAO). Thus, timing of breeding in most Pied Flycatcher populations not only depends upon local circumstances, but also on conditions encountered during travelling, and these effects differ across populations dependent on the timing of travelling and breeding.
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  • Cowie, M. R., et al. (författare)
  • New medicinal products for chronic heart failure: advances in clinical trial design and efficacy assessment
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : Wiley. - 1388-9842. ; 19:6, s. 718-727
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Despite the availability of a number of different classes of therapeutic agents with proven efficacy in heart failure, the clinical course of heart failure patients is characterized by a reduction in life expectancy, a progressive decline in health-related quality of life and functional status, as well as a high risk of hospitalization. New approaches are needed to address the unmet medical needs of this patient population. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) is undertaking a revision of its Guideline on Clinical Investigation of Medicinal Products for the Treatment of Chronic Heart Failure. The draft version of the Guideline was released for public consultation in January 2016. The Cardiovascular Round Table of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC), in partnership with the Heart Failure Association of the ESC, convened a dedicated two-day workshop to discuss three main topic areas of major interest in the field and addressed in this draft EMA guideline: (i) assessment of efficacy (i.e. endpoint selection and statistical analysis); (ii) clinical trial design (i.e. issues pertaining to patient population, optimal medical therapy, run-in period); and (iii) research approaches for testing novel therapeutic principles (i.e. cell therapy). This paper summarizes the key outputs from the workshop, reviews areas of expert consensus, and identifies gaps that require further research or discussion. Collaboration between regulators, industry, clinical trialists, cardiologists, health technology assessment bodies, payers, and patient organizations is critical to address the ongoing challenge of heart failure and to ensure the development and market access of new therapeutics in a scientifically robust, practical and safe way.
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  • Padwal, R., et al. (författare)
  • The obesity paradox in heart failure patients with preserved versus reduced ejection fraction: a meta-analysis of individual patient data
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Obesity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0307-0565 .- 1476-5497. ; 38:8, s. 1110-1114
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background:In heart failure (HF), obesity, defined as body mass index (BMI) >/=30 kg m-2, is paradoxically associated with higher survival rates compared with normal-weight patients (the 'obesity paradox'). We sought to determine if the obesity paradox differed by HF subtype (reduced ejection fraction (HF-REF) versus preserved ejection fraction (HF-PEF)).Patients and Methods:A sub-analysis of the MAGGIC meta-analysis of patient-level data from 14 HF studies was performed. Subjects were divided into five BMI groups: <22.5, 22.5-24.9 (referent), 25-29.9, 30-34.9 and >/=35 kg m-2. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for age, sex, aetiology (ischaemic or non-ischaemic), hypertension, diabetes and baseline blood pressure, stratified by study, were used to examine the independent association between BMI and 3-year total mortality. Analyses were conducted for the overall group and within HF-REF and HF-PEF groups.Results:BMI data were available for 23 967 subjects (mean age, 66.8 years; 32% women; 46% NYHA Class II; 50% Class III) and 5609 (23%) died by 3 years. Obese patients were younger, more likely to receive cardiovascular (CV) drug treatment, and had higher comorbidity burdens. Compared with BMI levels between 22.5 and 24.9 kg m-2, the adjusted relative hazards for 3-year mortality in subjects with HF-REF were: hazard ratios (HR)=1.31 (95% confidence interval=1.15-1.50) for BMI <22.5, 0.85 (0.76-0.96) for BMI 25.0-29.9, 0.64 (0.55-0.74) for BMI 30.0-34.9 and 0.95 (0.78-1.15) for BMI >/=35. Corresponding adjusted HRs for those with HF-PEF were: 1.12 (95% confidence interval=0.80-1.57) for BMI <22.5, 0.74 (0.56-0.97) for BMI 25.0-29.9, 0.64 (0.46-0.88) for BMI 30.0-34.9 and 0.71 (0.49-1.05) for BMI >/=35.Conclusions:In patients with chronic HF, the obesity paradox was present in both those with reduced and preserved ventricular systolic function. Mortality in both HF subtypes was U-shaped, with a nadir at 30.0-34.9 kg m-2.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 26 November 2013; doi:10.1038/ijo.2013.203.
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28.
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29.
  • Swedberg, Karl, 1944, et al. (författare)
  • Successful treatment of heart failure with devices requires collaboration
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : Wiley. - 1388-9842. ; 10:12, s. 1229-35
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Implanted biventricular pacemakers (cardiac resynchronisation therapy, CRT) with or without implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) improve survival and morbidity in some patients with chronic heart failure (CHF) who are optimally treated with pharmacologic agents according to current guidelines. Correspondingly, ICDs improve survival. However, there is only limited evidence for device treatment in certain patient subgroups, such as the impact of ICD on outcomes in patients with reduced ejection fraction in New York Heart Association (NYHA) Class I or IV heart failure. Similarly, limited evidence exists for CRT in patients with only modest QRS prolongation or only modestly reduced ejection fraction. Despite evidence for a beneficial effect of device therapy in CHF, only a minority of eligible patients are currently offered these options. Multiple reasons contribute to the underuse of these potentially life-saving therapies. A lack of adherence to guidelines by health care professionals is an important barrier. Clearly, efforts should be made to improve the standard of care and to familiarise all physicians involved in managing CHF patients with the indications and potential efficacy of these devices. Increased collaboration between structured heart failure care and pacemaker clinics as well as between electrophysiologists, heart failure clinicians, and primary care physicians is required. Such team collaborations should lead to improved care with reduced mortality and morbidity and increased cost effectiveness. Treatment strategy should be based on a structured approach tailored to local practice and national priorities.
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30.
  • Anker, S. D., et al. (författare)
  • The importance of patient-reported outcomes: a call for their comprehensive integration in cardiovascular clinical trials
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 35, s. 2001-2009
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Patient-reported outcomes (PROs), such as symptoms, health-related quality of life (HRQOL), or patient perceived health status, are reported directly by the patient and are powerful tools to inform patients, clinicians, and policy-makers about morbidity and 'patient suffering', especially in chronic diseases. Patient-reported outcomes provide information on the patient experience and can be the target of therapeutic intervention. Patient-reported outcomes can improve the quality of patient care by creating a holistic approach to clinical decision-making; however, PROs are not routinely used as key outcome measures in major cardiovascular clinical trials. Thus, limited information is available on the impact of cardiovascular therapeutics on PROs to guide patient-level clinical decision-making or policy-level decision-making. Cardiovascular clinical research should shift its focus to include PROs when evaluating the efficacy of therapeutic interventions, and PRO assessments should be scientifically rigorous. The European Society of Cardiology and other professional societies can take action to influence the uptake of PRO data in the research and clinical communities. This process of integrating PRO data into comprehensive efficacy evaluations will ultimately improve the quality of care for patients across the spectrum of cardiovascular disease.
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31.
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32.
  • Sepanlou, Sadaf G., et al. (författare)
  • The global, regional, and national burden of cirrhosis by cause in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: The Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - 2468-1253. ; 5:3, s. 245-266
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases (collectively referred to as cirrhosis in this paper) are a major cause of morbidity and mortality globally, although the burden and underlying causes differ across locations and demographic groups. We report on results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 on the burden of cirrhosis and its trends since 1990, by cause, sex, and age, for 195 countries and territories. Methods We used data from vital registrations, vital registration samples, and verbal autopsies to estimate mortality. We modelled prevalence of total, compensated, and decompensated cirrhosis on the basis of hospital and claims data. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) were calculated as the sum of years of life lost due to premature death and years lived with disability. Estimates are presented as numbers and age-standardised or age-specific rates per 100 000 population, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). All estimates are presented for five causes of cirrhosis: hepatitis B, hepatitis C, alcohol-related liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH), and other causes. We compared mortality, prevalence, and DALY estimates with those expected according to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) as a proxy for the development status of regions and countries. Findings In 2017, cirrhosis caused more than 1.32 million (95% UI 1.27-1.45) deaths (440000 [416 000-518 000; 33.3%] in females and 883 000 [838 000-967 000; 66.7%] in males) globally, compared with less than 899 000 (829 000-948 000) deaths in 1990. Deaths due to cirrhosis constituted 2.4% (2.3-2.6) of total deaths globally in 2017 compared with 1.9% (1.8-2.0) in 1990. Despite an increase in the number of deaths, the age-standardised death rate decreased from 21.0 (19.2-22.3) per 100 000 population in 1990 to 16.5 (15.8-18-1) per 100 000 population in 2017. Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest age-standardised death rate among GBD super-regions for all years of the study period (32.2 [25.8-38.6] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017), and the high-income super-region had the lowest (10.1 [9.8-10-5] deaths per 100 000 population in 2017). The age-standardised death rate decreased or remained constant from 1990 to 2017 in all GBD regions except eastern Europe and central Asia, where the age-standardised death rate increased, primarily due to increases in alcohol-related liver disease prevalence. At the national level, the age-standardised death rate of cirrhosis was lowest in Singapore in 2017 (3.7 [3.3-4.0] per 100 000 in 2017) and highest in Egypt in all years since 1990 (103.3 [64.4-133.4] per 100 000 in 2017). There were 10.6 million (10.3-10.9) prevalent cases of decompensated cirrhosis and 112 million (107-119) prevalent cases of compensated cirrhosis globally in 2017. There was a significant increase in age-standardised prevalence rate of decompensated cirrhosis between 1990 and 2017. Cirrhosis caused by NASH had a steady age-standardised death rate throughout the study period, whereas the other four causes showed declines in age-standardised death rate. The age-standardised prevalence of compensated and decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH increased more than for any other cause of cirrhosis (by 33.2% for compensated cirrhosis and 54.8% for decompensated cirrhosis) over the study period. From 1990 to 2017, the number of prevalent cases snore than doubled for compensated cirrhosis due to NASH and more than tripled for decompensated cirrhosis due to NASH. In 2017, age-standardised death and DALY rates were lower among countries and territories with higher SDI. Interpretation Cirrhosis imposes a substantial health burden on many countries and this burden has increased at the global level since 1990, partly due to population growth and ageing. Although the age-standardised death and DALY rates of cirrhosis decreased from 1990 to 2017, numbers of deaths and DALYs and the proportion of all global deaths due to cirrhosis increased. Despite the availability of effective interventions for the prevention and treatment of hepatitis B and C, they were still the main causes of cirrhosis burden worldwide, particularly in low-income countries. The impact of hepatitis B and C is expected to be attenuated and overtaken by that of NASH in the near future. Cost-effective interventions are required to continue the prevention and treatment of viral hepatitis, and to achieve early diagnosis and prevention of cirrhosis due to alcohol-related liver disease and NASH.
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33.
  • Tromp, J., et al. (författare)
  • World Heart Federation Roadmap for Digital Health in Cardiology
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: GLOBAL HEALTH. - : UBIQUITY PRESS LTD. - 2211-8160 .- 2308-4553 .- 2211-8179. ; 17:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • More than 500 million people worldwide live with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Health systems today face fundamental challenges in delivering optimal care due to ageing populations, healthcare workforce constraints, financing, availability and affordability of CVD medicine, and service delivery. Digital health technologies can help address these challenges. They may be a tool to reach Sustainable Development Goal 3.4 and reduce premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by a third by 2030. Yet, a range of fundamental barriers prevents implementation and access to such technologies. Health system governance, health provider, patient and technological factors can prevent or distort their implementation. World Heart Federation (WHF) roadmaps aim to identify essential roadblocks on the pathway to effective prevention, detection, and treatment of CVD. Further, they aim to provide actionable solutions and implementation frameworks for local adaptation. This WHF Roadmap for digital health in cardiology identifies barriers to implementing digital health technologies for CVD and provides recommendations for overcoming them.
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34.
  • Calvin, Katherine, et al. (författare)
  • Bioenergy for climate change mitigation: Scale and sustainability
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: GCB Bioenergy. - : Wiley. - 1757-1707 .- 1757-1693. ; 13:9, s. 1346-1371
  • Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Many global climate change mitigation pathways presented in IPCC assessment reports rely heavily on the deployment of bioenergy, often used in conjunction with carbon capture and storage. We review the literature on bioenergy use for climate change mitigation, including studies that use top-down integrated assessment models or bottom-up modelling, and studies that do not rely on modelling. We summarize the state of knowledge concerning potential co-benefits and adverse side effects of bioenergy systems and discuss limitations of modelling studies used to analyse consequences of bioenergy expansion. The implications of bioenergy supply on mitigation and other sustainability criteria are context dependent and influenced by feedstock, management regime, climatic region, scale of deployment and how bioenergy alters energy systems and land use. Depending on previous land use, widespread deployment of monoculture plantations may contribute to mitigation but can cause negative impacts across a range of other sustainability criteria. Strategic integration of new biomass supply systems into existing agriculture and forest landscapes may result in less mitigation but can contribute positively to other sustainability objectives. There is considerable variation in evaluations of how sustainability challenges evolve as the scale of bioenergy deployment increases, due to limitations of existing models, and uncertainty over the future context with respect to the many variables that influence alternative uses of biomass and land. Integrative policies, coordinated institutions and improved governance mechanisms to enhance co-benefits and minimize adverse side effects can reduce the risks of large-scale deployment of bioenergy. Further, conservation and efficiency measures for energy, land and biomass can support greater flexibility in achieving climate change mitigation and adaptation.
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35.
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36.
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37.
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38.
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39.
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40.
  • Vazir, A, et al. (författare)
  • Resolution of central sleep apnoea following implantation of a left ventricular assist device.
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cardiology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0167-5273 .- 1874-1754. ; 4:138, s. 317-319
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Central sleep apnoea (CSA) occurs in up to 40% of patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). It is thought to be a consequence of CHF and is associated with an accelerated decline in cardiac function, and increased morbidity and mortality. The optimal treatment of CSA remains unclear. Resolution of CSA has been reported after cardiac transplantation. We report the first case of resolution of CSA 10 months following implantation of a permanent Jarviktrade mark 2000 left ventricular assist device (LVAD). The correction of CSA after implantation of the LVAD was associated with improvements in symptoms, exercise capacity, renal function, and increased arterial carbon dioxide levels at rest during wakefulness and also reduction in brain natriuretic peptide.
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41.
  • Wilkinson, M., et al. (författare)
  • Partitioned postseismic deformation associated with the 2009 Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake surface rupture measured using a terrestrial laser scanner
  • 2010
  • Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 37, s. L10309-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Using 3D terrestrial laser scan (TLS) technology, we have recorded postseismic deformation on and adjacent to the surface rupture formed during the 6th April 2009 L'Aquila normal faulting earthquake (Mw 6.3). Using surface modeling techniques and repeated surveys 8-124 days after the earthquake, we have produced a 4D dataset of postseismic deformation across a 3 x 65 m area at high horizontal spatial resolution. We detected millimetre-scale movements partitioned between discrete surface rupture slip and development of a hangingwall syncline over 10's of meters. We interpret the results as the signal of shallow afterslip in the fault zone. We find 52% of the total postseismic hangingwall vertical motion occurs as deformation within 30 m of the surface rupture. The total postseismic vertical motions are approximately 50% that of the coseismic. We highlight the importance of quantifying partitioned postseismic contributions when applying empirical slip-magnitude datasets to infer palaeoearthquake magnitudes. Citation: Wilkinson, M., et al. (2010), Partitioned postseismic deformation associated with the 2009 Mw 6.3 L'Aquila earthquake surface rupture measured using a terrestrial laser scanner.
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42.
  • Cowie, MR, et al. (författare)
  • Clinical applications of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) testing
  • 2003
  • Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 24:19, s. 1710-1718
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Many claims have been made in recent years regarding the utility of plasma B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) concentration measurements in the diagnosis, risk stratification and monitoring of patients with heart failure. This paper summarizes the current evidence and provides guidance for practising clinicians. Overall, plasma BNP testing appears to be of most value in the diagnostic arena, where it is likely to improve the performance of non-specialist physicians in diagnosing heart failure. In clinical practice, BNP testing is best used as a 'rule out' test for suspected cases of new heart failure in breathless patients presenting to either the outpatient or emergency care settings, it is not a replacement for echocardiography and full cardiological assessment, which will be required for patients with an elevated BNP concentration. Although work is ongoing in establishing the 'normal' values of BNP, heart failure appears to be highly unlikely below a plasma concentration of 100 pg/ml. However, as BNP levels rise with age and are affected by gender, comorbidity and drug therapy, the plasma BNP measurement should not be used in isolation from the clinical context.
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43.
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44.
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45.
  • Mullens, Wilfried, et al. (författare)
  • Integration of implantable device therapy in patients with heart failure. A clinical consensus statement from the Heart Failure Association (HFA) and European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC)
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : WILEY. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Implantable devices form an integral part of the management of patients with heart failure (HF) and provide adjunctive therapies in addition to cornerstone drug treatment. Although the number of these devices is growing, only few are supported by robust evidence. Current devices aim to improve haemodynamics, improve reverse remodelling, or provide electrical therapy. A number of these devices have guideline recommendations and some have been shown to improve outcomes such as cardiac resynchronization therapy, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators and long-term mechanical support. For others, more evidence is still needed before large-scale implementation can be strongly advised. Of note, devices and drugs can work synergistically in HF as improved disease control with devices can allow for further optimization of drug therapy. Therefore, some devices might already be considered early in the disease trajectory of HF patients, while others might only be reserved for advanced HF. As such, device therapy should be integrated into HF care programmes. Unfortunately, implementation of devices, including those with the greatest evidence, in clinical care pathways is still suboptimal. This clinical consensus document of the Heart Failure Association (HFA) and European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) describes the physiological rationale behind device-provided therapy and also device-guided management, offers an overview of current implantable device options recommended by the guidelines and proposes a new integrated model of device therapy as a part of HF care.
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46.
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47.
  • Savarese, Gianluigi, et al. (författare)
  • Heart failure drug titration, discontinuation, mortality and heart failure hospitalization risk : a multinational observational study (US, UK and Sweden)
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 23:9, s. 1499-1511
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aims: Use and dosing of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) in patients with heart failure (HF) have been shown to be suboptimal. Among new users of GDMT in HF, we followed the real-life patterns of dose titration and discontinuation of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEi), angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB), beta-blockers, mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (MRA) and angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors (ARNI).Methods and results: New users were identified in health care databases in Sweden, UK and US between 2016–2019. Inclusion criterion was a recent HF hospitalization (HHF) triggering the initiation of GDMT. Patients were grouped by GDMT, i.e. ACEi, ARB, beta-blocker, MRA and ARNI, and stratified by initial dose. Follow-up was 12 months, until death or study end. Outcomes were dose titration within each drug class, discontinuation and first HHF or death. Dose/discontinuation follow-up was assessed daily based on the coverage length of a filled prescription and reported on day 365. New users of ACEi (n = 8426), ARB (n = 2303), beta-blockers (n = 10 476), MRA (n = 17 421), and ARNI (n = 29 546) were identified. Over 12 months, target dose achievement was 15%, 10%, 12%, 30%, and discontinuation was 55%, 33%, 24% and 27% for ACEi, ARB, beta-blockers and ARNI, respectively. MRA was rarely titrated and discontinuation rates were high (40%). Event rates for HHF or death ranged from 40.0–86.9 per 100 patient-years across the treatment groups.Conclusion: Despite high risk of clinical events following HHF, new initiation of GDMT was followed by consistent patterns of low up-titration and early GDMT discontinuation in three countries with different health care and economies. Our data highlight the urgent need for moving away from long sequential approach when initiating HF treatment and for improving just-in-time decision support for patients and health care providers.
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