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- Buntgen, U., et al.
(author)
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Tree rings reveal globally coherent signature of cosmogenic radiocarbon events in 774 and 993 CE
- 2018
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Though tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved, their dating has never been independently validated at the global scale. Moreover, it is unknown if atmospheric radiocarbon enrichment events of cosmogenic origin leave spatiotemporally consistent fingerprints. Here we measure the 14C content in 484 individual tree rings formed in the periods 770–780 and 990–1000 CE. Distinct 14C excursions starting in the boreal summer of 774 and the boreal spring of 993 ensure the precise dating of 44 tree-ring records from five continents. We also identify a meridional decline of 11-year mean atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations across both hemispheres. Corroborated by historical eye-witness accounts of red auroras, our results suggest a global exposure to strong solar proton radiation. To improve understanding of the return frequency and intensity of past cosmic events, which is particularly important for assessing the potential threat of space weather on our society, further annually resolved 14C measurements are needed.
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| 5. |
- Björklund, J., et al.
(author)
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Scientific Merits and Analytical Challenges of Tree-Ring Densitometry
- 2019
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In: Reviews of geophysics. - 8755-1209 .- 1944-9208. ; 57:4, s. 1224-1264
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- X-ray microdensitometry on annually resolved tree-ring samples has gained an exceptional position in last-millennium paleoclimatology through the maximum latewood density (MXD) parameter, but also increasingly through other density parameters. For 50 years, X-ray based measurement techniques have been the de facto standard. However, studies report offsets in the mean levels for MXD measurements derived from different laboratories, indicating challenges of accuracy and precision. Moreover, reflected visible light-based techniques are becoming increasingly popular, and wood anatomical techniques are emerging as a potentially powerful pathway to extract density information at the highest resolution. Here we review the current understanding and merits of wood density for tree-ring research, associated microdensitometric techniques, and analytical measurement challenges. The review is further complemented with a careful comparison of new measurements derived at 17 laboratories, using several different techniques. The new experiment allowed us to corroborate and refresh long-standing wisdom but also provide new insights. Key outcomes include (i) a demonstration of the need for mass/volume-based recalibration to accurately estimate average ring density; (ii) a substantiation of systematic differences in MXD measurements that cautions for great care when combining density data sets for climate reconstructions; and (iii) insights into the relevance of analytical measurement resolution in signals derived from tree-ring density data. Finally, we provide recommendations expected to facilitate futureinter-comparability and interpretations for global change research.
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| 6. |
- Björklund, Jesper, 1979, et al.
(author)
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Scientific Merits and Analytical Challenges ofTree-Ring Densitometry
- 2019
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In: Reviews of Geophysics. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 8755-1209 .- 1944-9208. ; 57:4, s. 1224-1264
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- X-ray microdensitometry on annually resolved tree-ring samples has gained an exceptional position in last-millennium paleoclimatology through the maximum latewood density (MXD) parameter, but also increasingly through other density parameters. For 50 years, X-ray based measurement techniques have been the de facto standard. However, studies report offsets in the mean levels for MXD measurements derived from different laboratories, indicating challenges of accuracy and precision. Moreover, reflected visible light-based techniques are becoming increasingly popular, and wood anatomical techniques are emerging as a potentially powerful pathway to extract density information at the highest resolution. Here we review the current understanding and merits of wood density for tree-ring research, associated microdensitometric techniques, and analytical measurement challenges. The review is further complemented with a careful comparison of new measurements derived at 17 laboratories, using several different techniques. The new experiment allowed us to corroborate and refresh "long-standing wisdom" but also provide new insights. Key outcomes include (i) a demonstration of the need for mass/volume-based recalibration to accurately estimate average ring density; (ii) a substantiation of systematic differences in MXD measurements that cautions for great care when combining density data sets for climate reconstructions; and (iii) insights into the relevance of analytical measurement resolution in signals derived from tree-ring density data. Finally, we provide recommendations expected to facilitate futureinter-comparability and interpretations for global change research.
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| 7. |
- Rao, M. P., et al.
(author)
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European and Mediterranean hydroclimate responses to tropical volcanic forcing over the last millennimum
- 2017
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In: Geophysical Research Letters. - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 44:10, s. 5104-5112
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Volcanic eruptions have global climate impacts, but their effect on the hydrologic cycle is poorly understood. We use a modified version of superposed epoch analysis, an eruption year list collated from multiple data sets, and seasonal paleoclimate reconstructions ( soil moisture, precipitation, geopotential heights, and temperature) to investigate volcanic forcing of spring and summer hydroclimate over Europe and the Mediterranean over the last millennium. In the western Mediterranean, wet conditions occur in the eruption year and the following 3 years. Conversely, northwestern Europe and the British Isles experience dry conditions in response to volcanic eruptions, with the largest moisture deficits in posteruption years 2 and 3. The precipitation response occurs primarily in late spring and early summer (April-July), a pattern that strongly resembles the negative phase of the East Atlantic Pattern. Modulated by this mode of climate variability, eruptions force significant, widespread, and heterogeneous hydroclimate responses across Europe and the Mediterranean.
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| 9. |
- Ravelli, A, et al.
(author)
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2016 Classification Criteria for Macrophage Activation Syndrome Complicating Systemic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis: A European League Against Rheumatism/American College of Rheumatology/Paediatric Rheumatology International Trials Organisation Collaborative Initiative
- 2016
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In: Annals of the rheumatic diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 75:3, s. 481-489
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To develop criteria for the classification of macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) in patients with systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). A multistep process, based on a combination of expert consensus and analysis of real patient data, was conducted. A panel of 28 experts was first asked to classify 428 patient profiles as having or not having MAS, based on clinical and laboratory features at the time of disease onset. The 428 profiles comprised 161 patients with systemic JIA—associated MAS and 267 patients with a condition that could potentially be confused with MAS (active systemic JIA without evidence of MAS, or systemic infection). Next, the ability of candidate criteria to classify individual patients as having MAS or not having MAS was assessed by evaluating the agreement between the classification yielded using the criteria and the consensus classification of the experts. The final criteria were selected in a consensus conference. Experts achieved consensus on the classification of 391 of the 428 patient profiles (91.4%). A total of 982 candidate criteria were tested statistically. The 37 best-performing criteria and 8 criteria obtained from the literature were evaluated at the consensus conference. During the conference, 82% consensus among experts was reached on the final MAS classification criteria. In validation analyses, these criteria had a sensitivity of 0.73 and a specificity of 0.99. Agreement between the classification (MAS or not MAS) obtained using the criteria and the original diagnosis made by the treating physician was high (κ=0.76). We have developed a set of classification criteria for MAS complicating systemic JIA and provided preliminary evidence of its validity. Use of these criteria will potentially improve understanding of MAS in systemic JIA and enhance efforts to discover effective therapies, by ensuring appropriate patient enrollment in studies.
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| 14. |
- Minoia, F, et al.
(author)
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Development and initial validation of the MS score for diagnosis of macrophage activation syndrome in systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis
- 2019
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In: Annals of the rheumatic diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 78:10, s. 1357-1362
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To develop and validate a diagnostic score that aids in identifying macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) in patients with systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (sJIA).MethodsThe clinical and laboratory features of 362 patients with sJIA-associated MAS and 404 patients with active sJIA without evidence of MAS were collected in a multinational collaborative project. Eighty percent of the study population was used to develop the score and the remaining 20% constituted the validation sample. A Bayesian Model Averaging approach was used to assess the role of each clinical and laboratory variables in the diagnosis of MAS and to obtain the coefficients of selected variables. The final score, named MAS/sJIA (MS) score, resulted from the linear combination of these coefficients multiplied by the values of each variable. The cut-off that best discriminated MAS from active sJIA was calculated by means of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Score performance was evaluated in both developmental and validation samples.ResultsThe MS score ranges from −8.4 to 41.8 and comprises seven variables: central nervous system dysfunction, haemorrhagic manifestations, active arthritis, platelet count, fibrinogen, lactate dehydrogenase and ferritin. A cut-off value ≥−2.1 revealed the best performance in discriminating MAS from active sJIA, with a sensitivity of 0.85, a specificity of 0.95 and a kappa value of 0.80. The good performance of the MS score was confirmed in the validation sample.ConclusionThe MS score is a powerful and feasible tool that may assist practitioners in making a timely diagnosis of MAS in patients with sJIA.
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| 15. |
- Minoia, F, et al.
(author)
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Dissecting the heterogeneity of macrophage activation syndrome complicating systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis
- 2015
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In: The Journal of rheumatology. - : The Journal of Rheumatology. - 0315-162X .- 1499-2752. ; 42:6, s. 994-1001
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To seek insights into the heterogeneity of macrophage activation syndrome (MAS) complicating systemic juvenile idiopathic arthritis (sJIA) through the analysis of a large patient sample collected in a multinational survey.Methods.International pediatric rheumatologists and hemato-oncologists entered their patient data, collected retrospectively, in a Web-based database. The demographic, clinical, laboratory, histopathologic, therapeutic, and outcome data were analyzed in relation to (1) geographic location of caring hospital, (2) subspecialty of attending physician, (3) demonstration of hemophagocytosis, and (4) severity of clinical course.Results.A total of 362 patients were included by 95 investigators from 33 countries. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and histopathologic features were comparable among patients seen in diverse geographic areas or by different pediatric specialists. Patients seen in North America were given biologics more frequently. Patients entered by pediatric hemato-oncologists were treated more commonly with biologics and etoposide, whereas patients seen by pediatric rheumatologists more frequently received cyclosporine. Patients with demonstration of hemophagocytosis had shorter duration of sJIA at MAS onset, higher prevalence of hepatosplenomegaly, lower levels of platelets and fibrinogen, and were more frequently administered cyclosporine, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), and etoposide. Patients with severe course were older, had longer duration of sJIA at MAS onset, had more full-blown clinical picture, and were more commonly given cyclosporine, IVIG, and etoposide.Conclusion.The clinical spectrum of MAS is comparable across patients seen in different geographic settings or by diverse pediatric subspecialists. There was a disparity in the therapeutic choices among physicians that underscores the need to establish uniform therapeutic protocols.
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| 19. |
- Wilson, R., et al.
(author)
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Improved dendroclimatic calibration using blue intensity in the southern Yukon
- 2019
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In: The Holocene. - : SAGE Publications. - 0959-6836 .- 1477-0911. ; 29:11, s. 1817-1830
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In north-western North America, the so-called divergence problem (DP) is expressed in tree ring width (RW) as an unstable temperature signal in recent decades. Maximum latewood density (MXD), from the same region, shows minimal evidence of DP. While MXD is a superior proxy for summer temperatures, there are very few long MXD records from North America. Latewood blue intensity (LWB) measures similar wood properties as MXD, expresses a similar climate response, is much cheaper to generate and thereby could provide the means to profoundly expand the extant network of temperature sensitive tree-ring (TR) chronologies in North America. In this study, LWB is measured from 17 white spruce sites (Picea glauca) in south-western Yukon to test whether LWB is immune to the temporal calibration instabilities observed in RW. A number of detrending methodologies are examined. The strongest calibration results for both RW and LWB are consistently returned using age-dependent spline (ADS) detrending within the signal-free (SF) framework. RW data calibrate best with June-July maximum temperatures (Tmax), explaining up to 28% variance, but all models fail validation and residual analysis. In comparison, LWB calibrates strongly (explaining 43-51% of May-August Tmax) and validates well. The reconstruction extends to 1337 CE, but uncertainties increase substantially before the early 17th century because of low replication. RW-, MXD- and LWB-based summer temperature reconstructions from the Gulf of Alaska, the Wrangell Mountains and Northern Alaska display good agreement at multi-decadal and higher frequencies, but the Yukon LWB reconstruction appears potentially limited in its expression of centennial-scale variation. While LWB improves dendroclimatic calibration, future work must focus on suitably preserved sub-fossil material to increase replication prior to 1650 CE.
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