| 1. |
- AghaKouchak, Amir, et al.
(författare)
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Anthropogenic Drought : Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities
- 2021
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Ingår i: Reviews of geophysics. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 8755-1209 .- 1944-9208. ; 59:2
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Traditional, mainstream definitions of drought describe it as deficit in water-related variables or water-dependent activities (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, surface and groundwater storage, and irrigation) due to natural variabilities that are out of the control of local decision-makers. Here, we argue that within coupled human-water systems, drought must be defined and understood as a process as opposed to a product to help better frame and describe the complex and interrelated dynamics of both natural and human-induced changes that define anthropogenic drought as a compound multidimensional and multiscale phenomenon, governed by the combination of natural water variability, climate change, human decisions and activities, and altered micro-climate conditions due to changes in land and water management. This definition considers the full spectrum of dynamic feedbacks and processes (e.g., land-atmosphere interactions and water and energy balance) within human-nature systems that drive the development of anthropogenic drought. This process magnifies the water supply demand gap and can lead to water bankruptcy, which will become more rampant around the globe in the coming decades due to continuously growing water demands under compounding effects of climate change and global environmental degradation. This challenge has de facto implications for both short-term and long-term water resources planning and management, water governance, and policymaking. Herein, after a brief overview of the anthropogenic drought concept and its examples, we discuss existing research gaps and opportunities for better understanding, modeling, and management of this phenomenon.
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| 2. |
- Albertini, Cinzia, et al.
(författare)
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Socio-Hydrological Modelling : The Influence of Reservoir Management and Societal Responses on Flood Impacts
- 2020
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Ingår i: Water. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4441. ; 12:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the last few years, several socio-hydrological studies have investigated the risk dynamics generated by the complex interactions between floods and societies, with a focus on either changing reservoir operation rules or raising levees. In this study, we propose a new socio-hydrological model of human-flood interactions that represents both changes in the reservoir management strategies and updating of the levee system. Our model is applied to simulate three prototypes of floodplain management strategies to cope with flood risk: green systems, in which societies resettle outside the flood-prone area; technological systems, in which societies implement structural measures, such as levees; and green-to-techno systems, in which societies shift from green to technological approaches. Floodplain dynamics are explored simulating possible future scenarios in the city of Brisbane, Australia. Results show that flood risk is strongly influenced by changes in flood and drought memory of reservoir operators, while risk-awareness levels shape the urbanisation of floodplains. Furthermore, scenarios of more frequent and higher magnitude events prove to enhance social flood memory in green systems, while technological systems experience much higher losses. Interestingly, green-to-techno systems may also evolve toward green floodplain management systems in response to large losses and technical/economical unfeasibility of larger structural measures.
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| 3. |
- Biella, Riccardo, et al.
(författare)
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Thinking systemically about climate services: Using archetypes to reveal maladaptation
- 2024
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Ingår i: Climate Services. - : Elsevier BV. - 2405-8807. ; 34
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Developing and implementing climate adaptation measures in complex socio-ecological systems can lead to unintended consequences, especially when those systems are undergoing rapid hydro-climatic and socio-economic change. In these dynamic contexts, a systemic approach can make the difference between adaptive and maladaptive outcomes. This paper focuses on the use of climate services, often touted as no-regret solutions, and their potential to generate maladaptation. We explored the interactions between climate services and adaptation/maladaptation across five case studies affected by different types of natural hazards and characterized by a range of hydro-climatic and socio-economic conditions. Using system archetypes, we show how climate services can play a role in both producing and preventing maladaptation. The dynamics explored through system archetypes are: i) “fixes that fail”, where short-sighted solutions fail to address the root causes of a problem; ii) “band aid solutions”, where the benefits brought about in the short-term come at the expenses of delaying long-term adaptive actions; and iii) “success to the successful”, where some groups increasingly benefit from climate services at the expenses of other groups. We demonstrate how these dynamics constitute maladaptive processes, as well as identifying the tools and theories that can be used in this type of assessment. Finally, we provide a framework and recommendations to guide the ex-ante assessment of maladaptation risk when designing and implementing climate services.
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| 4. |
- Breinl, Korbinian, et al.
(författare)
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Extreme dry and wet spells face changes in their duration and timing
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 15:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Dry spells are sequences of days without precipitation. They can have negative implications for societies, including water security and agriculture. For example, changes in their duration and within-year timing can pose a threat to food production and wildfire risk. Conversely, wet spells are sequences of days with precipitation above a certain threshold, and changes in their duration and within-year timing can impact agriculture, flooding or the prevalence of water-related vector-borne diseases. Here we assess changes in the duration and within-year timing of extreme dry and wet spells over 60 years (1958-2017) using a consistent global land surface precipitation dataset of 5093 rain gauge locations. The dataset allowed for detailed spatial analyses of the United States, Europe and Australia. While many locations exhibit statistically significant changes in the duration of extreme dry and wet spells, the changes in the within-year timing are less often significant. Our results show consistencies with observations and projections from state-of-the-art climate and water resources research. In addition, we provide new insights regarding trends in the timing of extreme dry and wet spells, an aspect being equally important for possible future implications of extremes in a changing climate, which has not yet received the same level of attention and is characterized by larger uncertainty.
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| 5. |
- Ceola, S., et al.
(författare)
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Drought and Human Mobility in Africa
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth's Future. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2328-4277. ; 11:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Human mobility from droughts is multifaceted and depends on environmental, political, social, demographic and economic factors. Although droughts cannot be considered as the single trigger, they significantly influence people's decision to move. Yet, the ways in which droughts influence patterns of human settlements have remained poorly understood. Here we explore the relationships between drought occurrences and changes in the spatial distribution of human settlements across 50 African countries for the period 1992-2013. For each country, we extract annual drought occurrences from two indicators, the international disaster database EM-DAT and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-12) records, and we evaluate human settlement patterns by considering urban population data and human distance to rivers, as derived from nighttime lights. We then compute human displacements as variations in human distribution between adjacent years, which are then associated with drought (or non-drought) years. Our results show that drought occurrences across Africa are often associated with (other things being equal) human mobility toward rivers or cities. In particular, we found that human settlements tend to get closer to water bodies or urban areas during drought conditions, as compared to non-drought periods, in 70%-81% of African countries. We interpret this tendency as a physical manifestation of drought adaptation, and discuss how this may result into increasing flood risk or overcrowding urban areas. As such, our results shed light on the interplay between human mobility and climate change, bolstering the analysis on the spatiotemporal dynamics of drought risks in a warming world. Prolonged water shortages induced by droughts can have severe consequences on both the environment and society. For instance, the mobility of people can be influenced by drought events. In order to test this assumption, we relate the movement of people to drought occurrences, without considering any additional factor. We focus on Africa, since it is one of the most drought-prone continents and the movement of people is more prominent compared to other areas. We find that people tend to move closer to rivers and to urban centers during droughts, as compared to non-drought periods. This pattern is found for the majority of African countries, which suggests a large-scale signal. The increased movement of people toward rivers during droughts might generate larger human losses if flood events take place in the future. A new methodology integrating satellite data is developed for evaluating drought-induced human displacements in AfricaWe found that 70%-81% of African countries exhibit larger displacements during droughts, as compared to non-drought periodsHuman displacement toward rivers and urban centers is triggered, other things being equal, by drought occurrences
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| 6. |
- De Luca, Paolo, et al.
(författare)
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Concurrent wet and dry hydrological extremes at the global scale
- 2020
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 11:1, s. 251-266
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multi-hazard events can be associated with larger socio-economic impacts than single-hazard events. Understanding the spatio-temporal interactions that characterize the former is therefore of relevance to disaster risk reduction measures. Here, we consider two high-impact hazards, namely wet and dry hydrological extremes, and quantify their global co-occurrence. We define these using the monthly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index based on the Penman-Monteith model (sc_PDSI_pm), covering the period 1950-2014, at 2.5 degrees horizontal resolution. We find that the land areas affected by extreme wet, dry, and wet-dry events (i.e. geographically remote yet temporally co-occurring wet or dry extremes) are all increasing with time, the trends of which in dry and wet-dry episodes are significant (p value << 0.01). The most geographically widespread wet-dry event was associated with the strong La Nina in 2010. This caused wet-dry anomalies across a land area of 21 million km(2) with documented high-impact flooding and drought episodes spanning diverse regions. To further elucidate the interplay of wet and dry extremes at a grid cell scale, we introduce two new metrics: the wet-dry (WD) ratio and the extreme transition (ET) time intervals. The WD ratio measures the relative occurrence of wet or dry extremes, whereas ET quantifies the average separation time of hydrological extremes with opposite signs. The WD ratio shows that the incidence of wet extremes dominates over dry extremes in the USA, northern and southern South America, northern Europe, north Africa, western China, and most of Australia. Conversely, dry extremes are more prominent in most of the remaining regions. The median ET for wet to dry is similar to 27 months, while the dry-to-wet median ET is 21 months. We also evaluate correlations between wet-dry hydrological extremes and leading modes of climate variability, namely the El Nina-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). We find that ENSO and PDO have a similar influence globally, with the former significantly impacting (p value < 0.05) a larger area (18.1 % of total sc_PDSI_pm area) compared to the latter (12.0 %), whereas the AMO shows an almost inverse pattern and significantly impacts the largest area overall (18.9 %). ENSO and PDO show the most significant correlations over northern South America, the central and western USA, the Middle East, eastern Russia, and eastern Australia. On the other hand, the AMO shows significant associations over Mexico, Brazil, central Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, China, and eastern Russia. Our analysis brings new insights on hydrological multi-hazards that are of relevance to governments and organizations with globally distributed interests. Specifically, the multi-hazard maps may be used to evaluate worst-case disaster scenarios considering the potential co-occurrence of wet and dry hydrological extremes.
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| 7. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Brief communication : Comparing hydrological and hydrogeomorphic paradigms for global flood hazard mapping
- 2020
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 20:5, s. 1415-1419
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global floodplain mapping has rapidly progressed over the past few years. Different methods have been proposed to identify areas prone to river flooding, resulting in a plethora of available products. Here we assess the potential and limitations of two main paradigms and provide guidance on the use of these global products in assessing flood risk in data-poor regions.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Integrating Multiple Research Methods to Unravel the Complexity of Human-Water Systems
- 2021
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Ingår i: AGU Advances. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2576-604X. ; 2:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Predicting floods and droughts is essential to inform the development of policy in water management, climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Yet, hydrological predictions are highly uncertain, while the frequency, severity and spatial distribution of extreme events are further complicated by the increasing impact of human activities on the water cycle. In this commentary, we argue that four main aspects characterizing the complexity of human-water systems should be explicitly addressed: feedbacks, scales, tradeoffs and inequalities. We propose the integration of multiple research methods as a way to cope with complexity and develop policy-relevant science.Plain Language SummarySeveral governments today claim to be following the science in addressing crises caused by the occurrence of extreme events, such as floods and droughts, or the emergence of global threats, such as climate change and COVID-19. In this commentary, we show that there are no universal answers to apparently simple questions such as: Do levees reduce flood risk? Do reservoirs alleviate droughts? We argue that the best science we have consists of a plurality of legitimate interpretations and a range of foresights, which can be enriched by integrating multiple disciplines and research methods.
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| 10. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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Multiple hazards and risk perceptions over time : the availability heuristic in Italy and Sweden under COVID-19
- 2021
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 21:11, s. 3439-3447
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The severe impact of global crises, such as COVID-19 and climate change, is plausibly reshaping the way in which people perceive risks. In this paper, we examine and compare how global crises and local disasters influence public perceptions of multiple hazards in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we integrate information about the occurrence of hazardous events with the results of two nationwide surveys. These included more than 4000 participants and were conducted in two different phases of the COVID-19 pandemic corresponding to low (August 2020) and high (November 2020) levels of infection rates. We found that, in both countries, people are more worried about risks related to experienced events. This is in line with the cognitive process known as the availability heuristic: individuals assess the risk associated with a given hazard based on how easily it comes to their mind. Epidemics, for example, are perceived as less likely and more impactful in Italy compared to Sweden. This outcome can be explained by cross-country differences in the impact of, as well as governmental responses to, COVID-19. Notwithstanding the ongoing pandemic, people in both Italy and Sweden are highly concerned about climate change, and they rank it as the most likely threat.
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| 11. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
(författare)
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Sociohydrology
- 2024
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Ingår i: Elgar Encyclopedia of Water Policy, Economics and Management. - Cheltenham Glos, United Kingdom : Edward Elgar Publishing. - 9781802202939 ; , s. 243-245
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 12. |
- Di Baldassarre, Giuliano, et al.
(författare)
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The legacy of large dams in the United States
- 2021
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 50:10, s. 1798-1808
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The sustainability of large dams has been questioned on several grounds. One aspect that has been less explored is that the development of dams and reservoirs often enables agricultural expansion and urban growth, which in turn increase water consumption. As such, dam development influences, while being influenced by, the spatial and temporal distribution of both supply and demand of water resources. In this paper, we explore the interplay between large dams, patterns of population growth and agricultural expansion in the United States over the past two centuries. Based on a large-scale analysis of spatial and temporal trends, we identify three distinct phases, in which different processes dominated the interplay. Then, we focus on agricultural water use in the Southwest region (Arizona, California and Nevada) and explore chicken-and-egg dynamics where water supply partly meets and partly fuels water demand. Lastly, we show that the legacy of dams in the United States consists of a lock-in condition characterized by high levels of water consumption, especially in the Southwest, which leads to severe water crises and groundwater overexploitation when droughts occur.
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| 13. |
- Ferdous, Md Ruknul, et al.
(författare)
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The interplay between structural flood protection, population density, and flood mortality along the Jamuna River, Bangladesh
- 2020
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : SPRINGER HEIDELBERG. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 20:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Levees protect floodplain areas from frequent flooding, but they can paradoxically contribute to more severe flood losses. The construction or reinforcement of levees can attract more assets and people in flood-prone area, thereby increasing the potential flood damage when levees eventually fail. Moreover, structural protection measures can generate a sense of complacency, which can reduce preparedness, thereby increasing flood mortality rates. We explore these phenomena in the Jamuna River floodplain in Bangladesh. In this study area, different levels of flood protection have co-existed alongside each other since the 1960s, with a levee being constructed only on the right bank and its maintenance being assured only in certain places. Primary and secondary data on population density, human settlements, and flood fatalities were collected to carry out a comparative analysis of two urban areas and two rural areas with different flood protection levels. We found that the higher the level of flood protection, the higher the increase of population density over the past decades as well as the number of assets exposed to flooding. Our results also show that flood mortality rates associated with the 2017 flooding in Bangladesh were lower in the areas with lower protection level. This empirical analysis of the unintended consequences of structural flood protection is relevant for the making of sustainable policies of disaster risk reduction and adaptation to climate change in rapidly changing environments.
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| 14. |
- Franceschinis, Cristiano, et al.
(författare)
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Heterogeneity in flood risk awareness : A longitudinal, latent class model approach
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 599
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Insights into the heterogeneity of human behaviours and attitudes toward risk require the understanding of the role played by a plurality of factors, such as risk awareness and trust. However, our knowledge of the interplay of these factors is limited, as is our knowledge of the patterns in risk attitudes and behaviours and their evolution over time. This study explores the interplay between attitudes and behaviours related to flood risk awareness and structural flood protection in two communities in the Eastern Italian Alps, and how they changed over time. To this end, a questionnaire was submitted to a total of 420 residents, in the year 2005 (N = 200) and 2018 (N = 220), and then analysed using Latent Class Analysis. No floods were recorded in the area during this period. The results show that there is a group of residents characterized by low risk awareness and high trust in structural flood protection. Such individuals are likely to live in urban - rather than mountain - communities and are characterized by a lack of or limited experience with floods. They are also prone to believe that such events will not happen in the future. In 2005, this group represented less than half of the sample, but its size substantially increased in 2018. This result has strong implications for local risk managers, because this group of residents is less risk aware than the others and they may deserve special attention and targeted messages in flood risk communication campaigns. This and other results are discussed, including the potential development of generalizable models to provide emergency and risk managers with tools to unveil risk awareness patterns and to tailor risk communication actions to citizens attitudes and behaviours. The paper ends with some considerations about the need not only to better understand but also to address diversity in flood risk awareness.
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| 15. |
- Gain, Animesh K., et al.
(författare)
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Social-ecological system approaches for water resources management
- 2021
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Ingår i: International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1350-4509 .- 1745-2627. ; 28:2, s. 109-124
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the era of the Anthropocene, understanding the dynamic interactions between humans and water is crucial for supporting both human well-being and the sustainable management of resources. The current water management challenges are inherently unpredictable and difficult to control. Social-ecological systems (SESs) approaches explicitly recognize the connections and feedbacks between human and natural systems. For addressing the complex challenges of the Anthropocene, consideration of SES attributes such as causality (or interdependence), feedback, non-linearity, heterogeneity, and cross-scale dynamics is important. In addition, innovative qualitative and quantitative methods such as Bayesian networks, agent-based modelling, system dynamics, network analysis, multicriteria analysis, integrated assessment and role-play games have recently been used in SES research. The overall goal of this review is to gauge the extent to which SES attributes and methods are considered within the current interdisciplinary water paradigm. The paper therefore develops the normative theoretical characteristics of SES in terms of its key attributes (i.e. causality, feedback, heterogeneity, nonlinearity, and cross-scale dynamics) incorporated in the water paradigm approaches. The paper then compares the methods applied in the interdisciplinary water paradigm and examines how they can complement each other. Finally, the paper reflects back on the usefulness of SES attributes and methods for assessing the interdisciplinary water paradigm and makes recommendations for future research.
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| 16. |
- Garcia, Margaret, et al.
(författare)
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The interplay between reservoir storage and operating rules under evolving conditions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : ELSEVIER. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 590
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reservoir storage helps manage hydrological variability, increasing predictability and productivity of water supply. However, there are inevitable tradeoffs, with control of high frequency variability coming at the expense of robustness to low frequency variability. Tightly controlling variability can reduce incentives to maintain adaptive capacity needed during events that exceed design thresholds. With multiple dimensions of change projected for many water supply systems globally, increased knowledge on the role of design and operational choices in balancing short-term control and long-term adaptability is needed. Here we investigated how the scale of reservoir storage (relative to demands and streamflow variability) and reservoir operating rules interact to mitigate shortage risk under changing supplies and/or demands. To address these questions, we examined three water supply systems that have faced changing conditions: the Colorado River in the Western United States, the Melbourne Water Supply System in Southeastern Australia, and the Western Cape Water Supply System in South Africa. Moreover, we parameterize a sociohydrological model of reservoir dynamics using time series from the three case studies above. We then used the model to explore the impacts of storage and operational rules. We found that larger storage volumes lead to a greater time before the shortage is observed, but that this time is not consistently used for adaptation. Additionally, our modeling results show that operating rules that trigger withdrawal decreases sooner tend to increase the probability of an adaptive response; the findings from this model are bolstered by the three case studies. While there are many factors influencing the response to water stress, our results demonstrate the importance of: i) evaluating design and operational choices in concert, and ii) examining the role of information salience in adapting water supply systems to changing conditions.
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| 17. |
- George, Oriangi, et al.
(författare)
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An assessment of climate extremes in Mbale Municipality in Eastern Uganda
- 2023
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Ingår i: Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters. - 9780128191019 ; , s. 301-321
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study investigated historic and future characteristics of precipitation periods in Mbale Municipality. Observed historic (1982–2014) and modeled future (2021–50) precipitation data were analyzed using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Modeled data depict a likelihood of more frequent extremely wet and dry periods in near future as compared to historic period. In particular, there is a likelihood of more frequent extremely wet periods in 2020s and 2030s and more frequent extremely dry periods during 2030s and 2040s as opposed to findings from regional z-indices. Both historic and future precipitation extremes are pronounced between August and January. These findings imply that livelihoods in Mbale are likely to be threatened by precipitation extremes. Thus, researchers, practitioners, and policy makers need to assess influential factors that can enhance resilience. In conclusion, localized rather than regional indices are more able to distill local conditions, at the same time provide more accurate predictions of future extremes.
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| 18. |
- Hoellermann, Britta, et al.
(författare)
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Go together, to go further! Reply to "Human-water research : discussion of 'Guiding principles for hydrologists conducting interdisciplinary research and fieldwork with participants'"
- 2022
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 67:14, s. 2211-2213
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this reply to Thaler, we take the opportunity to explore two main aspects of his piece to continue the discussion: (1) the integration of data from the social and natural sciences, and (2) the importance of transdisciplinary research. We agree, and highlight that necessary learning, reflections and participation processes are time-intensive for researchers, practitioners and participants. We believe that these discussion pieces are important for informing, engaging, and debating challenges and practices, providing continued opportunities to learn from one another, enabling new forms of research and collaborations to flourish.
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| 19. |
-
Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters
- 2023. - 2
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Samlingsverk (redaktörskap) (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, 2e, provides an integrated look at the major disasters that have had, and continue to have, major implications for many of the world’s people, such as floods and droughts. This new edition takes a geoscientific approach to the topic, while also covering current thinking about some scientific issues that are socially relevant and can directly affect human lives and assets. This new edition showcases both academic and applied research conducted in developed and developing countries, allowing readers to see the most updated flood and drought modeling research and their applications in the real world, including for humanitarian emergency purposes.Hydro-Meteorological Hazards, Risks, and Disasters, 2e, also contains new insights about how climate change affects hazardous processes. For the first time, information on the many diverse topics relevant to professionals is aggregated into one volume. It is a valuable reference to researchers, graduates, scientists, physical geographers, urban planners, landscape architects, and other people who work on the build environments of the world.
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| 20. |
- Khatami, Sina, et al.
(författare)
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Suggesting a new diagram and convention for characterising and reporting model performance
- 2022
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Ingår i: EGU General Assembly 2022. - : European Geosciences Union (EGU).
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A long-standing research issue, in the hydrological sciences and beyond, is that of developing methods to evaluate the predictive/forecasting skill, errors and uncertainties of a model (or model ensembles). Various methods have been proposed for characterising time series residuals, i.e. the differences between observed (or target) and modelled (or estimate) time series. Most notably, the Taylor Diagram summarises model performance via a single plot based on three related metrics: the (linear Pearson) correlation, standard deviation, and root mean squared differences of one or multiple pairs of target and estimate time series. Despite its theoretical elegance and widespread use, the Taylor diagram does not account for bias errors, which is an important summary statistic for evaluating model performance. Further, it is very common to evaluate, compare, and report on model “skill” by use of a single aggregate metric value, even when a vector of metrics is used to calibrate/train the model; most commonly this is a dimensionless efficiency metric such as Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) or Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE). Such “efficiency” metrics typically aggregate over multiple types of residual behaviours: for example the most commonly used version of KGE is based on correlation, bias, and variability errors, although the authors recommended that it should be applied in a context-dependent fashion based on which model behaviours are deemed to be important to a given situation. Nevertheless, the use of a single summary value fails to account for the interactions among the error component terms, which can be quite informative for the evaluation and benchmarking of models. In this study, we propose a new diagram that is as easy to use and interpret as the Taylor Diagram, while also accounting for bias. We further suggest a new convention for reporting model skill that is based on foundational error terms. Our vision is that this new diagram and convention will enable researchers and practitioners to better interpret and report model performance. We provide multiple numerical examples to illustrate how this approach can be used for evaluating performance in the context of multi-model and multi-catchment (large-sample) studies.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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Panta Rhei benchmark dataset : Socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 15:5, s. 2009-2023
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).
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| 23. |
- Kreibich, Heidi, et al.
(författare)
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The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management
- 2022
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 608:7921, s. 80-86
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally, yet their impacts are still increasing. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change.
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
- Li, Bin, et al.
(författare)
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Groundwater Vulnerability in a Megacity Under Climate and Economic Changes : A Coupled Sociohydrological Analysis
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Water resources research. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 59:12
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Groundwater depletion has become increasingly challenging, and many cities worldwide have adopted drastic policies to relieve water stress due to socioeconomic growth. Located on the declining aquifer of the North China Plain, Beijing, for example, has developed plans to limit the size of the city's population. However, the effect of population displacement under uncertain macroeconomic and climate change remains ambiguous. We adopt a sociohydrological model, with explicit consideration of the dynamics of human-water interactions, to explore the groundwater vulnerability of Beijing. We investigate how human response might shape the development trajectories of the groundwater-population-economy system under different macroscale economic and climate scenarios. Furthermore, we use a machine learning algorithm to identify the decisive factors to be considered for reducing groundwater vulnerability. Our results show that while rapid external economic development or larger annual average precipitation would enable recovery of the groundwater table in the short term, they may slacken human water shortage awareness and result in more acute groundwater depletion in the long run. Strengthening policymaker perceptions of groundwater depletion would prompt timely response policies for controlling population size. Improving the quantity and quality of labor force input to economic development would avoid downturns in the economy due to labor shortages. The outcomes of this study suggest that these strategies would effectively reduce groundwater vulnerability in the long run without causing severe socioeconomic recession. These findings highlight the importance of endogenizing human behavioral dynamics in sustainable urban water management. Beijing's groundwater vulnerability to external economic and climate change is assessed using a coupled sociohydro-economic modelRapid external economic development or larger precipitation might unintendedly lead to more severe groundwater depletion in the long runStrengthening policymakers' views of groundwater depletion is the key to enhancing the sustainability of the coupled human-water system
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| 26. |
- Lindersson, Sara, et al.
(författare)
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A review of freely accessible global datasets for the study of floods, droughts and their interactions with human societies
- 2020
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Ingår i: WIREs Water. - : Wiley. - 2049-1948. ; 7:3
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The availability of planetary-scale geospatial datasets that can support the study of water-related disasters in the Anthropocene is rapidly growing. We review 124 global and free datasets allowing spatial (and temporal) analyses of floods, droughts and their interactions with human societies. Our collection of datasets is available in a descriptive list for download at . The purpose of providing an overview of datasets across a wide range of hydrological and socioeconomic variables is to highlight research opportunities across scientific disciplines for the study of the water-society interplay. Our collection of datasets confirms that the availability of geospatial data capturing hydrological hazards and exposure is far more mature than those capturing vulnerability aspects. We do not only highlight the unprecedented opportunities associated with these global datasets for the study of water-related disasters in the Anthropocene, but also discuss the challenges associated with their exploitation. These challenges include: (a) time varying datasets advised not to be used in time series analyses; (b) fine spatial resolution datasets advised not to be used in local scale studies; (c), datasets built by a wide variety of data sources prohibiting systematic uncertainty assessments; and (d) datasets built by covariate variables preventing interaction studies. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Engineering Water > Sustainable Engineering of Water Science of Water > Water Extremes
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| 27. |
- Lindersson, Sara, et al.
(författare)
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Global riverine flood risk - how do hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps compare to flood hazard maps?
- 2021
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Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 21:10, s. 2921-2948
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Riverine flood risk studies often require the identification of areas prone to potential flooding. This modelling process can be based on either (hydrologically derived) flood hazard maps or (topography-based) hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps. In this paper, we derive and compare riverine flood exposure from three global products: a hydrogeomorphic floodplain map (GFPLAIN250m, hereinafter GFPLAIN) and two flood hazard maps (Flood Hazard Map of the World by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, hereinafter JRC, and the flood hazard maps produced for the Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2015, hereinafter GAR). We find an average spatial agreement between these maps of around 30 % at the river basin level on a global scale. This agreement is highly variable across model combinations and geographic conditions, influenced by climatic humidity, river volume, topography, and coastal proximity. Contrary to expectations, the agreement between the two flood hazard maps is lower compared to their agreement with the hydrogeomorphic floodplain map. We also map riverine flood exposure for 26 countries across the global south by intersecting these maps with three human population maps (Global Human Settlement population grid, hereinafter GHS; High Resolution Settlement Layer, hereinafter HRSL; and WorldPop). The findings of this study indicate that hydrogeomorphic floodplain maps can be a valuable way of producing high-resolution maps of flood-prone zones to support riverine flood risk studies, but caution should be taken in regions that are dry, steep, very flat, or near the coast.
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| 28. |
- Lindersson, Sara, 1987-
(författare)
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The use of global data to uncover how humans shape flood and drought risk
- 2023
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The human consequences of flood and drought disasters are widespread and detrimental. Large-scale studies, drawing on global geodata products and international databases, can systematically examine how anthropogenic megatrends shape disaster risk and test the generalisability of findings from other scientific methodologies. However, the top-down lens of these global studies often misses the pivotal role that human societies play in shaping disaster risk, including how water management influences physical hazards and how political factors shape social vulnerability. It is precisely this tension – characterised by the need for global perspectives alongside the need to incorporate human influences in the study of disaster risk – that motivates my research.This thesis specifically examines how observations from global data can leverage our understanding of how humans shape hydrological disaster risk, in terms of the hazard, human exposure and social vulnerability. To this end, the thesis draws on multiple methodologies across four individual studies, including one scoping review and three quantitative geospatial studies. The findings of this thesis provide insights into 1) how the landscape of global data shapes disaster studies and 2) how human societies shape disaster risk.For the former, my thesis shows that key data opportunities and challenges vary across disaster types and risk dimensions. Addressing each of these limitations is important because of the interrelated nature of disaster risk. The thesis also underlines how the pursuit of transforming fragmented disaster knowledge into holistic and useful information would encounter fewer obstacles if the global datasets were more integrated or, at the very least, more compatible. Databases recording past disaster losses serve as a natural place for such an integration.For the latter, this thesis brings to light the heterogeneous impact that large-scale infrastructure projects can have on disaster risk, by showing that river regulation does not serve as a universal solution for reducing long-term drought risk. The thesis also highlights the central role of human exposure and economic inequality in shaping human losses during severe flood disasters. Taken together, this underlines the importance of addressing root causes of vulnerability to reduce fatalities during disasters.
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| 29. |
- Lindersson, Sara, et al.
(författare)
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The wider the gap between rich and poor the higher the flood mortality
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Nature. - 2398-9629.
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Economic inequality is rising within many countries globally, and this can significantly influence the social vulnerability to natural hazards. We analysed income inequality and flood disasters in 67 middle- and high-income countries between 1990 and 2018 and found that unequal countries tend to suffer more flood fatalities. This study integrates geocoded mortality records from 573 major flood disasters with population and economic data to perform generalized linear mixed regression modelling. Our results show that the significant association between income inequality and flood mortality persists after accounting for the per-capita real gross domestic product, population size in flood-affected regions and other potentially confounding variables. The protective effect of increasing gross domestic product disappeared when accounting for income inequality and population size in flood-affected regions. On the basis of our results, we argue that the increasingly uneven distribution of wealth deserves more attention within international disaster-risk research and policy arenas.
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| 30. |
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| 31. |
- Mazzoleni, Maurizio, et al.
(författare)
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Deciphering human influence on annual maximum flood extent at the global level
- 2022
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Ingår i: Communications Earth & Environment. - : Springer Nature. - 2662-4435. ; 3:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Human actions are increasingly altering most river basins worldwide, resulting in changes in hydrological processes and extreme events. Yet, global patterns of changes between seasonal surface water and urbanization remain largely unknown. Here we perform a worldwide analysis of 106 large river basins and uncover global trends of annual maximum flood extent and artificial impervious area, as proxy of urbanization, over the past three decades. We explore their relationships with hydroclimatic variability, expressed as rainfall and snowmelt, and find that hydroclimatic variability alone cannot explain changes in annual maximum flood extent in 75% of the analyzed major river basins worldwide. Considering rainfall and urban area together can explain changes in the annual maximum flood extent in 57% of the basins. Our study emphasizes the importance of understanding the global impacts of human presence on changes in seasonal water dynamics. Increasing annual maximum flood extent over the past 30 years is best explained when the coincident increase in urban areas within floodplains is considered not just changes in hydroclimate, according to a worldwide analysis of major river basins.
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| 32. |
- Mazzoleni, Maurizio, et al.
(författare)
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Floodplains in the Anthropocene : A Global Analysis of the Interplay Between Human Population, Built Environment, and Flood Severity
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Water resources research. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0043-1397 .- 1944-7973. ; 57:2
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study presents a global explanatory analysis of the interplay between the severity of flood losses and human presence in floodplain areas. In particular, we relate economic losses and fatalities caused by floods during 1990-2000, with changes in human population and built-up areas in floodplains during 2000-2015 by exploiting global archives. We found that population and built-up areas in floodplains increased in the period 2000-2015 for the majority of the analyzed countries, albeit frequent flood losses in the previous period 1990-2000. In some countries, however, population in floodplains decreased in the period 2000-2015, following more severe floods losses that occurred in the period 1975-2000. Our analysis shows that (i) in low-income countries, population in floodplains increased after a period of high flood fatalities; while (ii) in upper-middle and high-income countries, built-up areas increased after a period of frequent economic losses. In this study, we also provide a general framework to advance knowledge of human-flood interactions and support the development of sustainable policies and measures for flood risk management and disaster risk reduction.
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| 33. |
- Mazzoleni, Maurizio, et al.
(författare)
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Water management, hydrological extremes, and society : modeling interactions and phenomena
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Ecology and Society. - : Resilience Alliance, Inc.. - 1708-3087. ; 26:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a system-dynamics model to simulate the interplay between water management, hydrological extremes (droughts and floods), and society. We illustrate the potential and limitations of the model with an example application to the Brisbane river basin (Australia). In particular, we test its capability to explain various phenomena that have been empirically observed, including the levee paradox, (mal)adaptation, and supply-demand cycles. To illustrate, we consider four water-management strategies: no actions, in which no measures are adopted to mitigate droughts and floods; fighting floods, in which a levee system is built and raised to cope with flooding; water conservation, in which demand management is implemented to cope with drought; and water exploitation, in which the water supply is increased to cope with drought. Our findings show that changes in flood and drought awareness can help contribute to the emergence of multiple phenomena. Moreover, the outcomes from the proposed coupled-modeling framework indicate that water-management strategies aimed at specific hydrological extremes can in turn shape the severity of opposite natural hazards. Given its explanatory value, the model can contribute to a better interpretation of changes in drought and flood risk and the role of alternative water-management strategies.
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| 34. |
- Mondino, Elena, 1993-
(författare)
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Changes in Hydrological Risk Perception and Implications for Disaster Risk Reduction
- 2021
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Economic losses caused by hydrological extremes, such as floods and droughts, are exacerbating because of increased anthropogenic activities and global environmental changes. Understanding how individuals and communities interact with hydrological extremes thus becomes fundamental to develop effective strategies for disaster risk reduction. Risk perception plays an important role in determining how individuals and communities respond to the occurrence of an extreme event. This thesis aims at addressing aspects of risk perception that remain largely unknown. They include: i) how flood risk perceptions change over time, ii) the role of previous experiences, and iii) how the perception of flood risk relates to the perception of other natural hazards, such as droughts. The work is based on survey data collected in different study areas – both in Italy and Sweden at the local and national scales – via longitudinal as well as cross-sectional approaches. In relation to the three main objectives, this thesis found that: i) flood risk perceptions evolve differently over time depending on social groups; ii) different types of previous experiences with floods directly influence specific facets of risk perception, with knowledge deriving from the experience also playing an important role; iii) flood risk perception is heavily intertwined with drought risk perception. These results have policy and theoretical implications. Concerning the former, they can inform disaster risk reduction efforts in terms of risk communication and promote an integrated management of hydrological risk. As for the latter, they stress the importance of taking social heterogeneity into account when modelling the interaction between the social and the hydrological spheres, as this can influence the community’s response to extreme events. Fostering human adaptation to climate extremes is a priority. This thesis argues that adaptation can be achieved by promoting the awareness that not only are we at risk, but also that we have the means to address the risk.
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| 35. |
- Mondino, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring changes in hydrogeological risk awareness and preparedness over time : a case study in northeastern Italy
- 2020
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:7, s. 1049-1059
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hydrogeological hazards are increasingly causing damage worldwide due to climatic and socio-economic changes. Building resilient communities is crucial to reduce potential losses. To this end, one of the first steps is to understand how people perceive potential threats around them. This study aims at exploring how risk awareness of, and preparedness to, face hydrological hazards changes over time. A cohort study was carried out in two villages in the northeastern Italian Alps, Romagnano and Vermiglio, affected by debris flows in 2000 and 2002. Surveys were conducted in 2005 and 2018, and the results compared. The survey data show that both awareness and preparedness decreased over time. We attribute this change to the fact that no event had occurred in a long time and to a lack of proper risk communication strategies. The outcomes of this study contribute to socio-hydrological modelling by providing empirical data on human behaviour dynamics.
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| 36. |
- Mondino, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Longitudinal survey data for diversifying temporal dynamics in flood risk modelling
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Natural hazards and earth system sciences. - : Copernicus Publications. - 1561-8633 .- 1684-9981. ; 21:9, s. 2811-2828
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Scholars have unravelled the complexities and underlying uncertainties in coupled human and water systems in various fields and disciplines. These complexities, however, are not always reflected in the way in which the dynamics of human–water systems are modelled. One reason is the lack of social data time series, which may be provided by longitudinal surveys. Here, we show the value of collecting longitudinal survey data to enrich sociohydrological modelling of flood risk. To illustrate, we compare and contrast two different approaches (repeated cross-sectional and panel) for collecting longitudinal data and explore changes in flood risk awareness and preparedness in a municipality hit by a flash flood in 2018. We found that risk awareness has not changed significantly in the timeframe under study (1 year). Perceived preparedness increased only among those respondents who suffered low damage during the flood event. We also found gender differences across both approaches for most of the variables explored. Lastly, we argue that results that are consistent across the two approaches can be used for the parametrisation of sociohydrological models. We posit that there is a need to enhance the representation of socio-demographic heterogeneity in modelling human–water systems in order to better support risk management.
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| 37. |
- Mondino, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Public perceptions of multiple risks during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Sweden
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2052-4463. ; 7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Knowing how people perceive multiple risks is essential to the management and promotion of public health and safety. Here we present a dataset based on a survey (N = 4,154) of public risk perception in Italy and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic. Both countries were heavily affected by the first wave of infections in Spring 2020, but their governmental responses were very different. As such, the dataset offers unique opportunities to investigate the role of governmental responses in shaping public risk perception. In addition to epidemics, the survey considered indirect effects of COVID-19 (domestic violence, economic crises), as well as global (climate change) and local (wildfires, floods, droughts, earthquakes, terror attacks) threats. The survey examines perceived likelihoods and impacts, individual and authorities' preparedness and knowledge, and socio-demographic indicators. Hence, the resulting dataset has the potential to enable a plethora of analyses on social, cultural and institutional factors influencing the way in which people perceive risk.
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| 38. |
- Mondino, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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The Role of Experience and Different Sources of Knowledge in Shaping Flood Risk Awareness
- 2020
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Ingår i: Water. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4441. ; 12:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding what makes people vulnerable to flooding is key in informing the risk management process. Non-structural measures, such as risk communication, can reduce vulnerability by improving flood risk awareness, but they require a deep understanding of which factors influence risk awareness, and how. We analysed and untangled the role of experience with, and knowledge of, floods by conducting a survey in a municipality in North-eastern Italy that was hit by a flash flood in 2018. The results show that previous experience with floods influences risk awareness not only directly, but also indirectly through the knowledge that was gained from that experience. In addition, specific (as opposed to generic) definitions of experience have been found to be better suited for exploring their effects on risk awareness. Based on the literature and on our results, we propose an experience-knowledge typology to help unravel the complex role that these two variables play in shaping flood risk awareness.
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| 39. |
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| 40. |
- Nohrstedt, Daniel, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Disaster risk reduction and the limits of truisms : Improving the knowledge and practice interface
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. - : Elsevier. - 2212-4209. ; 67
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Action toward strengthened disaster risk reduction (DRR) ideally builds from evidence-based policymaking to inform decisions and priorities. This is a guiding principle for the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR), which outlines priorities for action to reduce disaster risk. However, some of these practical guidelines conceal oversimplified or unsubstantiated claims and assumptions, what we refer to as 'truisms', which, if not properly addressed, may jeopardize the long-term goal to reduce disaster risks. Thus far, much DRR research has focused on ways to bridge the gap between science and practice while devoting less attention to the premises that shape the understanding of DRR issues. In this article, written in the spirit of a perspective piece on the state of the DRR field, we utilize the SFDRR as an illustrative case to identify and interrogate ten selected truisms, from across the social and natural sciences, that have been prevalent in shaping DRR research and practice. The ten truisms concern forecasting, loss, conflict, migration, the local level, collaboration, social capital, prevention, policy change, and risk awareness. We discuss central claims associated with each truism, relate those claims to insights in recent DRR scholarship, and end with suggestions for developing the field through advances in conceptualization, measurement, and causal inference.
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| 41. |
- Nohrstedt, Daniel, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring disaster impacts on adaptation actions in 549 cities worldwide
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Whether disasters influence adaptation actions in cities is contested. Yet, the extant knowledge base primarily consists of single or small-N case studies, so there is no global overview of the evidence on disaster impacts and adaptation. Here, we use regression analysis to explore the effects of disaster frequency and severity on four adaptation action types in 549 cities. In countries with greater adaptive capacity, economic losses increase city-level actions targeting recently experienced disaster event types, as well as actions to strengthen general disaster preparedness. An increase in disaster frequency reduces actions targeting hazard types other than those that recently occurred, while human losses have few effects. Comparisons between cities across levels of adaptive capacity indicate a wealth effect. More affluent countries incur greater economic damages from disasters, but also have higher governance capacity, creating both incentives and opportunities for adaptation measures. While disaster frequency and severity had a limited impact on adaptation actions overall, results are sensitive to which disaster impacts, adaptation action types, and adaptive capacities are considered. Here the authors explore the effects of disasters on adaptation actions in 549 cities, finding that the effects of disaster frequency and severity are modest and depend on action type, population size, and adaptive capacity.
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| 42. |
- Nohrstedt, Daniel, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Exposure to natural hazard events unassociated with policy change for improved disaster risk reduction
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Nature. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Natural hazard events provide opportunities for policy change to enhance disaster risk reduction (DRR), yet it remains unclear whether these events actually fulfill this transformative role around the world. Here, we investigate relationships between the frequency (number of events) and severity (fatalities, economic losses, and affected people) of natural hazards and DRR policy change in 85 countries over eight years. Our results show that frequency and severity factors are generally unassociated with improved DRR policy when controlling for income-levels, differences in starting policy values, and hazard event types. This is a robust result that accounts for event frequency and different hazard severity indicators, four baseline periods estimating hazard impacts, and multiple policy indicators. Although we show that natural hazards are unassociated with improved DRR policy globally, the study unveils variability in policy progress between countries experiencing similar levels of hazard frequency and severity.
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| 43. |
- Oriangi, George, et al.
(författare)
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Household resilience to climate change hazards in Uganda
- 2020
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management. - : EMERALD GROUP PUBLISHING LTD. - 1756-8692 .- 1756-8706. ; 12:1, s. 59-73
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose As climate change shocks and stresses increasingly affect urban areas in developing countries, resilience is imperative for the purposes of preparation, recovery and adaptation. This study aims to investigate demographic characteristics and social networks that influence the household capacity to prepare, recover and adapt when faced with prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events in Mbale municipality in Eastern Uganda. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional research design was used to elicit subjective opinions. Previous studies indicate the importance of subjective approaches for measuring social resilience but their use has not been well explored in the context of quantifying urban resilience to climate change shocks and stresses. This study uses 389 structured household interviews to capture demographic characteristics, social networks and resilience capacities. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used for analysis. Findings The ability of low-income households to meet their daily expenditure needs, household size, and networks with relatives and non government organizations (NGOs) were significant determinants of preparedness, recovery and adaptation to prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events. Originality/value Even the low-income households are substantially more likely to prepare for and recover from prolonged droughts or erratic rainfall events if they can meet their daily expenditure needs. This finding is noteworthy because the poorest in society are generally the most vulnerable to hazards.
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| 44. |
- Pande, Saket, et al.
(författare)
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Never Ask for a Lighter Rain but a Stronger Umbrella
- 2022
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Water. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 2624-9375. ; 3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In a recent editorial in the journal Nature Sustainability, the editors raised the concern that journal submissions on water studies appear too similar. The gist of the editorial: "too many publications and not enough ideas." In this response, we contest this notion, and point to the numerous new ideas that result from taking a broader view of the water science field. Drawing inspiration from a recently hosted conference geared at transcending traditional disciplinary silos and forging new paradigms for water research, we are, in fact, enthusiastic and optimistic about the ways scientists are investigating political, economic, historical, and cultural intersections toward more just and sustainable human-water relations and ways of knowing.
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| 45. |
- Pignocchino, Gianmarco, et al.
(författare)
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Public risk perception of air pollution in the general population of Italy and Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic : Environmental and socio-demographic drivers
- 2023
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Ingår i: Preventive Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0091-7435 .- 1096-0260. ; 173
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Air pollution is an important anthropogenic hazard due to its effect on human health and the environment. Understanding how the population perceives the risk associated with air pollution is a crucial aspect to inform future policies and communication strategies. The aim of this study is to examine the association between air pollution concentrations and public risk perception of air pollution, also exploring socio-demographic patterns in the general population of Italy and Sweden. To this end, we derived 3-year PM10 average concentrations from ground monitoring stations and integrated with a population-based survey carried out in August 2021 in both countries. Relative perceived likelihood and impact on the individual were considered as domains of risk perception. In addition this, information on direct experience and socio-demographic factors were included as possible determinants of risk perception. Linear regression models were performed to examine the association of PM10 average concentrations at regional level and individual level factors with risk perception domains. In both countries, respondents who live in the most densely populated regions report a higher perceived likelihood of air pollution. Direct experience is the main driver of risk perception in both countries. Being male and smokers in Italy, older age and having left/centre-left political orientation in both countries are associated with a higher perceived likelihood and impact of air pollution. These findings will inform future health and environmental studies regarding the public risk perception of air pollution highlighting individual's awareness and the sociodemographic patterns.
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| 46. |
- Raffetti, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Sweden and Italy : The role of trust in authorities
- 2022
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. - : Sage Publications. - 1403-4948 .- 1651-1905. ; 50:6, s. 803-809
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The success of vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 infection is vital for moving from a COVID-19 pandemic to an endemic scenario. We aimed to unravel the influence of the risk perception of epidemics along with individual and contextual factors on adherence to COVID-19 vaccination campaigns in Italy and Sweden.Methods: We compared the results of two nationwide surveys carried out in August 2021 across four domains of epidemic risk perception: perceived likelihood, perceived impact on the individual and perceived individual and authority knowledge. The roles of individual and contextual determinants were also explored.Results: The survey included 2144 participants in Sweden (52.3% women) and 2010 in Italy (52.6% women). In both countries, we found that trust in authorities was one of the main drivers of this process, with two-fold increased odds of being vaccinated. Being highly educated and having a higher relative income were associated with a higher adherence to the vaccination campaign (for relative income OR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.23–1.67 in Sweden and OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.04–1.34 in Italy; for education OR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.30–2.77 in Sweden and OR = 1.47, 95% CI 1.09–1.97 in Italy), whereas a right and centre-right compared with a left and centre-left political orientation was negatively related to vaccination adherence (OR = 0.41, 95% CI 0.25–0.67 in Sweden and OR = 0.47, 95% CI 0.33–0.68 in Italy).Conclusions: Increasing trust in authorities, along with an equal global distribution of vaccine doses, can contribute to accelerating vaccination campaigns around the world and, in turn, to move towards an endemic scenario.
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| 47. |
- Raffetti, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Epidemic risk perceptions in Italy and Sweden driven by authority responses to COVID-19
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Scientific reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 12:1, s. 9291-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding public risk perception is an essential step to develop effective measures reducing the spread of disease outbreaks. Here we compare epidemic risk perceptions during two different periods of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy and Sweden. To this end, we analyzed the results of two nationwide surveys carried out in both countries in two periods characterized by different infection rates: August (N = 4154) and November 2020 (N = 4168). Seven domains of epidemic risk perception were considered: likelihood along with (individual and population) impact, preparedness, and knowledge. The role of the context and period was explored in stratified and formal interaction analyses. In both countries, we found an intensification in epidemic risk perception from August to November 2020. Being male, older and having a higher relative income were associated with a lower perception of the likelihood of epidemics, while excess mortality was marginally related to higher odds. Compared to Sweden, Italy had a higher increase in perception of likelihood and impact, and a concurrent decrease in preparedness and knowledge. The different authority response to the COVID-19 pandemic is associated with a different change over time in risk perception. Regional differences in terms of excess mortality only marginally explained differences in risk perception.
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| 48. |
- Rangecroft, Sally, et al.
(författare)
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Bridging the gap : reply to discussion of "Guiding principles for hydrologists conducting interdisciplinary research and fieldwork with participants"
- 2022
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 67:7, s. 1149-1151
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this reply we thank both authors for their thoughtful insights on our original opinion piece "Guiding principles for hydrologists conducting interdisciplinary research and fieldwork with participants." We believe these discussions will help to inspire and guide current and future researchers and illustrate how to continue to bring together physical and social data, experiences, and perspectives, and bridge the gap between the two disciplines with respect to socio-hydrological topics. Furthermore, we are confident that these insights and experiences will help foster a deeper understanding for hydrologists and natural scientists engaging with these discussions and research. Here we focus on two important themes that cut across both Quandt and Haeffner's replies: (1) further discussions on the importance of perceptions and lived experiences; and (2) further discussions on collaborative working and some of the major external barriers.
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| 49. |
- Rangecroft, Sally, et al.
(författare)
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Guiding principles for hydrologists conducting interdisciplinary research and fieldwork with participants
- 2021
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Taylor & Francis Group. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 66:2, s. 214-225
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To explore and address complex water-related issues, true collaborative, interdisciplinary research at the interface of hydrology and social science is necessary. Accordingly, hydrologists are increasingly working with social sciences and becoming involved in fieldwork with participants. With the overarching aim of facilitating collaboration and interdisciplinary water research, here we discuss important considerations and guiding principles for hydrologists, both those new to and those already familiar with interdisciplinary research, who are: (i) involved in fieldwork with participants; and (ii) working more collaboratively with social scientists. Drawing on first-hand experiences, this paper combines theory and experience from hydrologists and social scientists from their various interdisciplinary research projects to better understand key ethical, theoretical and practical considerations when working with participants. Complementary to this, we discuss the barriers and opportunities in collaborative interdisciplinary research. Facilitating these practices and understandings for hydrologists is essential to strengthen collaboration and to develop more holistic, successful research.
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| 50. |
- Ridolfi, Elena, et al.
(författare)
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Exploring the role of risk perception in influencing flood losses over time
- 2020
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Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - Milton Park, Oxfordshire : Taylor & Francis. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 65:1, s. 12-20
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- What implications do societies’ risk perceptions have for flood losses? This study uses a stylized, socio-hydrological model to simulate the mutual feedbacks between human societies and flood events. It integrates hydrological modelling with cultural theory and proposes four ideal types of society that reflect existing dominant risk perception and management: risk neglecting, risk monitoring, risk downplaying and risk controlling societies. We explore the consequent trajectories of flood risk generated by the interactions between floods and people for these ideal types of society over time. The results suggest that flood losses are substantially reduced when awareness-raising attitudes are promoted through inclusive, participatory approaches in the community. In contrast, societies that rely on top-down hierarchies and structural measures to protect settlements on floodplains may still suffer significant losses during extreme events. This study illustrates how predictions formed through social science theories can be applied and tested in hydrological modelling.
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