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Sökning: WFRF:(Epstein C J) > (2020-2024)

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  • Patel, Y., et al. (författare)
  • Virtual Ontogeny of Cortical Growth Preceding Mental Illness
  • 2022
  • Ingår i: Biological Psychiatry. - : Elsevier BV. - 0006-3223 .- 1873-2402. ; 92:4, s. 299-313
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Morphology of the human cerebral cortex differs across psychiatric disorders, with neurobiology and developmental origins mostly undetermined. Deviations in the tangential growth of the cerebral cortex during pre/perinatal periods may be reflected in individual variations in cortical surface area later in life. Methods: Interregional profiles of group differences in surface area between cases and controls were generated using T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging from 27,359 individuals including those with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, autism spectrum disorder, bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder, schizophrenia, and high general psychopathology (through the Child Behavior Checklist). Similarity of interregional profiles of group differences in surface area and prenatal cell-specific gene expression was assessed. Results: Across the 11 cortical regions, group differences in cortical area for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, schizophrenia, and Child Behavior Checklist were dominant in multimodal association cortices. The same interregional profiles were also associated with interregional profiles of (prenatal) gene expression specific to proliferative cells, namely radial glia and intermediate progenitor cells (greater expression, larger difference), as well as differentiated cells, namely excitatory neurons and endothelial and mural cells (greater expression, smaller difference). Finally, these cell types were implicated in known pre/perinatal risk factors for psychosis. Genes coexpressed with radial glia were enriched with genes implicated in congenital abnormalities, birth weight, hypoxia, and starvation. Genes coexpressed with endothelial and mural genes were enriched with genes associated with maternal hypertension and preterm birth. Conclusions: Our findings support a neurodevelopmental model of vulnerability to mental illness whereby prenatal risk factors acting through cell-specific processes lead to deviations from typical brain development during pregnancy.
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  • Myers-Smith, Isla H., et al. (författare)
  • Complexity revealed in the greening of the Arctic
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 10:2, s. 106-117
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As the Arctic warms, vegetation is responding, and satellite measures indicate widespread greening at high latitudes. This ‘greening of the Arctic’ is among the world’s most important large-scale ecological responses to global climate change. However, a consensus is emerging that the underlying causes and future dynamics of so-called Arctic greening and browning trends are more complex, variable and inherently scale-dependent than previously thought. Here we summarize the complexities of observing and interpreting high-latitude greening to identify priorities for future research. Incorporating satellite and proximal remote sensing with in-situ data, while accounting for uncertainties and scale issues, will advance the study of past, present and future Arctic vegetation change.
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  • Landolfo, C., et al. (författare)
  • Benign descriptors and ADNEX in two-step strategy to estimate risk of malignancy in ovarian tumors : retrospective validation on IOTA 5 multicenter cohort
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. - : Wiley. - 0960-7692 .- 1469-0705. ; 61:2, s. 231-242
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: Previous work suggested that the ultrasound-based benign Simple Descriptors can reliably exclude malignancy in a large proportion of women presenting with an adnexal mass. We aim to validate a modified version of the Benign Simple Descriptors (BD), and we introduce a two-step strategy to estimate the risk of malignancy: if the BDs do not apply, the ADNEX model is used to estimate the risk of malignancy. Methods: This is a retrospective analysis using the data from the 2-year interim analysis of the IOTA5 study, in which consecutive patients with at least one adnexal mass were recruited irrespective of subsequent management (conservative or surgery). The main outcome was classification of tumors as benign or malignant, based on histology or on clinical and ultrasound information during one year of follow-up. Multiple imputation was used when outcome based on follow-up was uncertain according to predefined criteria. Results: 8519 patients were recruited at 36 centers between 2012 and 2015. We included all masses that were not already in follow-up at recruitment from 17 centers with good quality surgical and follow-up data, leaving 4905 patients for statistical analysis. 3441 (70%) tumors were benign, 978 (20%) malignant, and 486 (10%) uncertain. The BDs were applicable in 1798/4905 (37%) tumors, and 1786 (99.3%) of these were benign. The two-step strategy based on ADNEX without CA125 had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.91-0.95). The risk of malignancy was slightly underestimated, but calibration varied between centers. A sensitivity analysis in which we expanded the definition of uncertain outcome resulted in 1419 (29%) tumors with uncertain outcome and an AUC of the two-step strategy without CA125 of 0.93 (95% CI, 0.91-0.95). Conclusion: A large proportion of adnexal masses can be classified as benign by the BDs. For the remaining masses the ADNEX model can be used to estimate the risk of malignancy. This two-step strategy is convenient for clinical use.
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  • Van Den Bosch, T., et al. (författare)
  • Typical ultrasound features of various endometrial pathologies described using International Endometrial Tumor Analysis (IETA) terminology in women with abnormal uterine bleeding
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. - : Wiley. - 0960-7692 .- 1469-0705. ; 57:1, s. 164-172
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: To describe the ultrasound features of different endometrial and other intracavitary pathologies inpre- and postmenopausal women presenting with abnormal uterine bleeding, using the International Endometrial Tumor Analysis (IETA) terminology. Methods: This was a prospective observational multicenter study of consecutive women presenting with abnormal uterine bleeding. Unenhanced sonography with color Doppler and fluid-instillation sonography were performed. Endometrial sampling was performed according to each center's local protocol. The histological endpoints were cancer, atypical endometrial hyperplasia/endometrioid intraepithelial neoplasia (EIN), endometrial atrophy, proliferative or secretory endometrium, endometrial hyperplasia without atypia, endometrial polyp, intracavitary leiomyoma and other. For fluid-instillation sonography, the histological endpoints were endometrial polyp, intracavitary leiomyoma and cancer. For each histological endpoint, we report typical ultrasound features using the IETA terminology. Results: The database consisted of 2856 consecutive women presenting with abnormal uterine bleeding. Unenhanced sonography with color Doppler was performed in all cases and fluid-instillation sonography in 1857. In 2216 women, endometrial histology was available, and these comprised the study population. Median age was 49 years (range, 19–92 years), median parity was 2 (range, 0–10) and median body mass index was 24.9 kg/m2 (range, 16.0–72.1 kg/m2). Of the study population, 843 (38.0%) women were postmenopausal. Endometrial polyps were diagnosed in 751 (33.9%) women, intracavitary leiomyomas in 223 (10.1%) and endometrial cancer in 137 (6.2%). None (0% (95% CI, 0.0–5.5%)) of the 66 women with endometrial thickness < 3 mm had endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia/EIN. Endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia/EIN was found in three of 283 (1.1% (95% CI, 0.4–3.1%)) endometria with a three-layer pattern, in three of 459 (0.7% (95% CI, 0.2–1.9%)) endometria with a linear endometrial midline and in five of 337 (1.5% (95% CI, 0.6–3.4%)) cases with a single vessel without branching on unenhanced ultrasound. Conclusions: The typical ultrasound features of endometrial cancer, polyps, hyperplasia and atrophy and intracavitary leiomyomas, are described using the IETA terminology. The detection of some easy-to-assess IETA features (i.e. endometrial thickness < 3 mm, three-layer pattern, linear midline and single vessel without branching) makes endometrial cancer unlikely.
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  • Berner, Logan T., et al. (författare)
  • The Arctic plant aboveground biomass synthesis dataset
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Scientific Data. - : Springer Nature. - 2052-4463. ; 11:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Plant biomass is a fundamental ecosystem attribute that is sensitive to rapid climatic changes occurring in the Arctic. Nevertheless, measuring plant biomass in the Arctic is logistically challenging and resource intensive. Lack of accessible field data hinders efforts to understand the amount, composition, distribution, and changes in plant biomass in these northern ecosystems. Here, we present The Arctic plant aboveground biomass synthesis dataset, which includes field measurements of lichen, bryophyte, herb, shrub, and/or tree aboveground biomass (g m−2) on 2,327 sample plots from 636 field sites in seven countries. We created the synthesis dataset by assembling and harmonizing 32 individual datasets. Aboveground biomass was primarily quantified by harvesting sample plots during mid- to late-summer, though tree and often tall shrub biomass were quantified using surveys and allometric models. Each biomass measurement is associated with metadata including sample date, location, method, data source, and other information. This unique dataset can be leveraged to monitor, map, and model plant biomass across the rapidly warming Arctic.
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  • Cumming, G. S., et al. (författare)
  • Advancing understanding of natural resource governance : a post-Ostrom research agenda
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability. - : Elsevier BV. - 1877-3435 .- 1877-3443. ; 44, s. 26-34
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Institutions are vital to the sustainability of social-ecologicalsystems, balancing individual and group interests andcoordinating responses to change. Ecological decline andsocial conflict in many places, however, indicate that ourunderstanding and fostering of effective institutions for naturalresource management is still lacking. We assess theoreticaland methodological challenges facing positivist institutionalanalysis, focusing on natural resource governance according toOstrom’s social-ecological systems (SES) framework. Ratherthan adding more variables, progress requires a clearer, moreconsistent approach to selecting, defining and measuringinstitutional elements; stronger links between theory andempirical research; a greater focus on mechanisms andcausality; and the development and application of newmethods, including quantitative approaches. Strengthening theconnections between theory, models, and data suggestsseveral promising avenues for advancing institutional analysisthrough the study of relationships between institutionalstructure, process, function, context, and outcomes.
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  • Eriksson, L. S.E., et al. (författare)
  • Ultrasound-based risk model for preoperative prediction of lymph-node metastases in women with endometrial cancer : model-development study
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. - : Wiley. - 0960-7692 .- 1469-0705. ; 56:3, s. 443-452
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objective: To develop a preoperative risk model, using endometrial biopsy results and clinical and ultrasound variables, to predict the individual risk of lymph-node metastases in women with endometrial cancer. Methods: A mixed-effects logistic regression model for prediction of lymph-node metastases was developed in 1501 prospectively included women with endometrial cancer undergoing transvaginal ultrasound examination before surgery, from 16 European centers. Missing data, including missing lymph-node status, were imputed. Discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the model were evaluated using leave-center-out cross validation. The predictive performance of the model was compared with that of risk classification from endometrial biopsy alone (high-risk defined as endometrioid cancer Grade 3/non-endometrioid cancer) or combined endometrial biopsy and ultrasound (high-risk defined as endometrioid cancer Grade 3/non-endometrioid cancer/deep myometrial invasion/cervical stromal invasion/extrauterine spread). Results: Lymphadenectomy was performed in 691 women, of whom 127 had lymph-node metastases. The model for prediction of lymph-node metastases included the predictors age, duration of abnormal bleeding, endometrial biopsy result, tumor extension and tumor size according to ultrasound and undefined tumor with an unmeasurable endometrium. The model's area under the curve was 0.73 (95% CI, 0.68–0.78), the calibration slope was 1.06 (95% CI, 0.79–1.34) and the calibration intercept was 0.06 (95% CI, –0.15 to 0.27). Using a risk threshold for lymph-node metastases of 5% compared with 20%, the model had, respectively, a sensitivity of 98% vs 48% and specificity of 11% vs 80%. The model had higher sensitivity and specificity than did classification as high-risk, according to endometrial biopsy alone (50% vs 35% and 80% vs 77%, respectively) or combined endometrial biopsy and ultrasound (80% vs 75% and 53% vs 52%, respectively). The model's clinical utility was higher than that of endometrial biopsy alone or combined endometrial biopsy and ultrasound at any given risk threshold. Conclusions: Based on endometrial biopsy results and clinical and ultrasound characteristics, the individual risk of lymph-node metastases in women with endometrial cancer can be estimated reliably before surgery. The model is superior to risk classification by endometrial biopsy alone or in combination with ultrasound.
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  • Verbakel, J. Y., et al. (författare)
  • Validation of ultrasound strategies to assess tumor extension and to predict high-risk endometrial cancer in women from the prospective IETA (International Endometrial Tumor Analysis)-4 cohort
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. - : Wiley. - 0960-7692 .- 1469-0705. ; 55:1, s. 115-124
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives: To compare the performance of ultrasound measurements and subjective ultrasound assessment (SA) in detecting deep myometrial invasion (MI) and cervical stromal invasion (CSI) in women with endometrial cancer, overall and according to whether they had low- or high-grade disease separately, and to validate published measurement cut-offs and prediction models to identify MI, CSI and high-risk disease (Grade-3 endometrioid or non-endometrioid cancer and/or deep MI and/or CSI). Methods: The study comprised 1538 patients with endometrial cancer from the International Endometrial Tumor Analysis (IETA)-4 prospective multicenter study, who underwent standardized expert transvaginal ultrasound examination. SA and ultrasound measurements were used to predict deep MI and CSI. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the tumor/uterine anteroposterior (AP) diameter ratio for detecting deep MI and that of the distance from the lower margin of the tumor to the outer cervical os (Dist-OCO) for detecting CSI. We also validated two two-step strategies for the prediction of high-risk cancer; in the first step, biopsy-confirmed Grade-3 endometrioid or mucinous or non-endometrioid cancers were classified as high-risk cancer, while the second step encompassed the application of a mathematical model to classify the remaining tumors. The ‘subjective prediction model’ included biopsy grade (Grade 1 vs Grade 2) and subjective assessment of deep MI or CSI (presence or absence) as variables, while the ‘objective prediction model’ included biopsy grade (Grade 1 vs Grade 2) and minimal tumor-free margin. The predictive performance of the two two-step strategies was compared with that of simply classifying patients as high risk if either deep MI or CSI was suspected based on SA or if biopsy showed Grade-3 endometrioid or mucinous or non-endometrioid histotype (i.e. combining SA with biopsy grade). Histological assessment from hysterectomy was considered the reference standard. Results: In 1275 patients with measurable lesions, the sensitivity and specificity of SA for detecting deep MI was 70% and 80%, respectively, in patients with a Grade-1 or -2 endometrioid or mucinous tumor vs 76% and 64% in patients with a Grade-3 endometrioid or mucinous or a non-endometrioid tumor. The corresponding values for the detection of CSI were 51% and 94% vs 50% and 91%. Tumor AP diameter and tumor/uterine AP diameter ratio showed the best performance for predicting deep MI (area under the receiver–operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.76 and 0.77, respectively), and Dist-OCO had the best performance for predicting CSI (AUC, 0.72). The proportion of patients classified correctly as having high-risk cancer was 80% when simply combining SA with biopsy grade vs 80% and 74% when using the subjective and objective two-step strategies, respectively. The subjective and objective models had an AUC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively, when applied to Grade-1 and -2 endometrioid tumors. Conclusions: In the hands of experienced ultrasound examiners, SA was superior to ultrasound measurements for the prediction of deep MI and CSI of endometrial cancer, especially in patients with a Grade-1 or -2 tumor. The mathematical models for the prediction of high-risk cancer performed as expected. The best strategies for predicting high-risk endometrial cancer were combining SA with biopsy grade and the subjective two-step strategy, both having an accuracy of 80%.
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  • Waeijen-Smit, Kiki, et al. (författare)
  • Global mortality and readmission rates following COPD exacerbation-related hospitalisation : a meta-analysis of 65 945 individual patients
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: ERJ Open Research. - : European Respiratory Society. - 2312-0541. ; 10:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Exacerbations of COPD (ECOPD) have a major impact on patients and healthcare systems across the world. Precise estimates of the global burden of ECOPD on mortality and hospital readmission are needed to inform policy makers and aid preventive strategies to mitigate this burden. The aims of the present study were to explore global in-hospital mortality, post-discharge mortality and hospital readmission rates after ECOPD-related hospitalisation using an individual patient data meta-analysis (IPDMA) design. Methods A systematic review was performed identifying studies that reported in-hospital mortality, postdischarge mortality and hospital readmission rates following ECOPD-related hospitalisation. Data analyses were conducted using a one-stage random-effects meta-analysis model. This study was conducted and reported in accordance with the PRISMA-IPD statement. Results Data of 65 945 individual patients with COPD were analysed. The pooled in-hospital mortality rate was 6.2%, pooled 30-, 90- and 365-day post-discharge mortality rates were 1.8%, 5.5% and 10.9%, respectively, and pooled 30-, 90- and 365-day hospital readmission rates were 7.1%, 12.6% and 32.1%, respectively, with noticeable variability between studies and countries. Strongest predictors of mortality and hospital readmission included noninvasive mechanical ventilation and a history of two or more ECOPD-related hospitalisations < 12 months prior to the index event. Conclusions This IPDMA stresses the poor outcomes and high heterogeneity of ECOPD-related hospitalisation across the world. Whilst global standardisation of the management and follow-up of ECOPD-related hospitalisation should be at the heart of future implementation research, policy makers should focus on reimbursing evidence-based therapies that decrease (recurrent) ECOPD.
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  • Mahajan, Shauna L., et al. (författare)
  • Introducing Elinor for monitoring the governance and management of area-based conservation
  • 2024
  • Ingår i: Conservation Biology. - 0888-8892 .- 1523-1739. ; 38:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Monitoring the governance and management effectiveness of area-based conservation has long been recognized as an important foundation for achieving national and global biodiversity goals and enabling adaptive management. However, there are still many barriers that prevent conservation actors, including those affected by governance and management systems from implementing conservation activities and programs and from gathering and using data on governance and management to inform decision-making across spatial scales and through time. We explored current and past efforts to assess governance and management effectiveness and barriers actors face in using the resulting data and insights to inform conservation decision-making. To help overcome these barriers, we developed Elinor, a free and open-source monitoring tool that builds on the work of Nobel Prize winner Elinor Ostrom to facilitate the gathering, storing, sharing, analyzing, and use of data on environmental governance and management across spatial scales and for areas under different governance and management types. We consider the process of codesigning and piloting Elinor with conservation scientists and practitioners and the main components of the assessment and online data system. We also consider how Elinor complements existing approaches by addressing governance and management in a single assessment at a high level for different types of area-based conservation, providing flexible options for data collection, and integrating a data system with an assessment that can support data use and sharing across different spatial scales, including global monitoring of the Global Biodiversity Framework. Although challenges will continue, the process of developing Elinor and the tool itself offer tangible solutions to barriers that prevent the systematic collection and use of governance and management data. With broader uptake, Elinor can play a valuable role in enabling more effective, inclusive, and durable area-based conservation.
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  • Sladkevicius, P., et al. (författare)
  • Vessel morphology depicted by three-dimensional power Doppler ultrasound as second-stage test in adnexal tumors that are difficult to classify : prospective diagnostic accuracy study
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. - : Wiley. - 0960-7692 .- 1469-0705. ; 57:2, s. 324-334
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Objectives: To assess whether vessel morphology depicted by three-dimensional (3D) power Doppler ultrasound improves discrimination between benignity and malignancy if used as a second-stage test in adnexal masses that are difficult to classify. Methods: This was a prospective observational international multicenter diagnostic accuracy study. Consecutive patients with an adnexal mass underwent standardized transvaginal two-dimensional (2D) grayscale and color or power Doppler and 3D power Doppler ultrasound examination by an experienced examiner, and those with a ‘difficult’ tumor were included in the current analysis. A difficult tumor was defined as one in which the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) logistic regression model-1 (LR-1) yielded an ambiguous result (risk of malignancy, 8.3% to 25.5%), or as one in which the ultrasound examiner was uncertain regarding classification as benign or malignant when using subjective assessment. Even when the ultrasound examiner was uncertain, he/she was obliged to classify the tumor as most probably benign or most probably malignant. For each difficult tumor, one researcher created a 360° rotating 3D power Doppler image of the vessel tree in the whole tumor and another of the vessel tree in a 5-cm3 spherical volume selected from the most vascularized part of the tumor. Two other researchers, blinded to the patient's history, 2D ultrasound findings and histological diagnosis, independently described the vessel tree using predetermined vessel features. Their agreed classification was used. The reference standard was the histological diagnosis of the mass. The sensitivity of each test for discriminating between benign and malignant difficult tumors was plotted against 1 – specificity on a receiver-operating-characteristics diagram, and the test with the point furthest from the reference line was considered to have the best diagnostic ability. Results: Of 2403 women with an adnexal mass, 376 (16%) had a difficult mass. Ultrasound volumes were available for 138 of these cases. In 79/138 masses, the ultrasound examiner was uncertain about the diagnosis based on subjective assessment, in 87/138, IOTA LR-1 yielded an ambiguous result and, in 28/138, both methods gave an uncertain result. Of the masses, 38/138 (28%) were malignant. Among tumors that were difficult to classify as benign or malignant by subjective assessment, the vessel feature ‘densely packed vessels’ had the best discriminative ability (sensitivity 67% (18/27), specificity 83% (43/52)) and was slightly superior to subjective assessment (sensitivity 74% (20/27), specificity 60% (31/52)). In tumors in which IOTA LR-1 yielded an ambiguous result, subjective assessment (sensitivity 82% (14/17), specificity 79% (55/70)) was superior to the best vascular feature, i.e. changes in the diameter of vessels in the whole tumor volume (sensitivity 71% (12/17), specificity 69% (48/70)). Conclusion: Vessel morphology depicted by 3D power Doppler ultrasound may slightly improve discrimination between benign and malignant adnexal tumors that are difficult to classify by subjective ultrasound assessment. For tumors in which the IOTA LR-1 model yields an ambiguous result, subjective assessment is superior to vessel morphology as a second-stage test.
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  • Timmerman, Stefan, et al. (författare)
  • External Validation of the Ovarian-Adnexal Reporting and Data System (O-RADS) Lexicon and the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis 2-Step Strategy to Stratify Ovarian Tumors Into O-RADS Risk Groups
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: JAMA Oncology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 9:2, s. 225-233
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • IMPORTANCE: Correct diagnosis of ovarian cancer results in better prognosis. Adnexal lesions can be stratified into the Ovarian-Adnexal Reporting and Data System (O-RADS) risk of malignancy categories with either the O-RADS lexicon, proposed by the American College of Radiology, or the International Ovarian Tumor Analysis (IOTA) 2-step strategy.OBJECTIVE: To investigate the diagnostic performance of the O-RADS lexicon and the IOTA 2-step strategy.DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective external diagnostic validation study based on interim data of IOTA5, a prospective international multicenter cohort study, in 36 oncology referral centers or other types of centers. A total of 8519 consecutive adult patients presenting with an adnexal mass between January 1, 2012, and March 1, 2015, and treated either with surgery or conservatively were included in this diagnostic study. Twenty-five patients were excluded for withdrawal of consent, 2777 were excluded from 19 centers that did not meet predefined data quality criteria, and 812 were excluded because they were already in follow-up at recruitment. The analysis included 4905 patients with a newly detected adnexal mass in 17 centers that met predefined data quality criteria. Data were analyzed from January 31 to March 1, 2022.EXPOSURES: Stratification into O-RADS categories (malignancy risk <1%, 1% to <10%, 10% to <50%, and ≥50%). For the IOTA 2-step strategy, the stratification is based on the individual risk of malignancy calculated with the IOTA 2-step strategy.MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Observed prevalence of malignancy in each O-RADS risk category, as well as sensitivity and specificity. The reference standard was the status of the tumor at inclusion, determined by histology or clinical and ultrasonographic follow-up for 1 year. Multiple imputation was used for uncertain outcomes owing to inconclusive follow-up information.RESULTS: Median age of the 4905 patients was 48 years (IQR, 36-62 years). Data on race and ethnicity were not collected. A total of 3441 tumors (70%) were benign, 978 (20%) were malignant, and 486 (10%) had uncertain classification. Using the O-RADS lexicon resulted in 1.1% (24 of 2196) observed prevalence of malignancy in O-RADS 2, 4% (34 of 857) in O-RADS 3, 27% (246 of 904) in O-RADS 4, and 78% (732 of 939) in O-RADS 5; the corresponding results for the IOTA 2-step strategy were 0.9% (18 of 1984), 4% (58 of 1304), 30% (206 of 690), and 82% (756 of 927). At the 10% risk threshold (O-RADS 4-5), the O-RADS lexicon had 92% sensitivity (95% CI, 87%-96%) and 80% specificity (95% CI, 74%-85%), and the IOTA 2-step strategy had 91% sensitivity (95% CI, 84%-95%) and 85% specificity (95% CI, 80%-88%).CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The findings of this external diagnostic validation study suggest that both the O-RADS lexicon and the IOTA 2-step strategy can be used to stratify patients into risk groups. However, the observed malignancy rate in O-RADS 2 was not clearly below 1%.
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  • Van Calster, Ben, et al. (författare)
  • Validation of models to diagnose ovarian cancer in patients managed surgically or conservatively : multicentre cohort study
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: BMJ (Clinical research ed.). - : BMJ. - 1756-1833. ; 370
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of diagnostic prediction models for ovarian malignancy in all patients with an ovarian mass managed surgically or conservatively. DESIGN: Multicentre cohort study. SETTING: 36 oncology referral centres (tertiary centres with a specific gynaecological oncology unit) or other types of centre. PARTICIPANTS: Consecutive adult patients presenting with an adnexal mass between January 2012 and March 2015 and managed by surgery or follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Overall and centre specific discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of six prediction models for ovarian malignancy (risk of malignancy index (RMI), logistic regression model 2 (LR2), simple rules, simple rules risk model (SRRisk), assessment of different neoplasias in the adnexa (ADNEX) with or without CA125). ADNEX allows the risk of malignancy to be subdivided into risks of a borderline, stage I primary, stage II-IV primary, or secondary metastatic malignancy. The outcome was based on histology if patients underwent surgery, or on results of clinical and ultrasound follow-up at 12 (±2) months. Multiple imputation was used when outcome based on follow-up was uncertain. RESULTS: The primary analysis included 17 centres that met strict quality criteria for surgical and follow-up data (5717 of all 8519 patients). 812 patients (14%) had a mass that was already in follow-up at study recruitment, therefore 4905 patients were included in the statistical analysis. The outcome was benign in 3441 (70%) patients and malignant in 978 (20%). Uncertain outcomes (486, 10%) were most often explained by limited follow-up information. The overall area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was highest for ADNEX with CA125 (0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.92 to 0.96), ADNEX without CA125 (0.94, 0.91 to 0.95) and SRRisk (0.94, 0.91 to 0.95), and lowest for RMI (0.89, 0.85 to 0.92). Calibration varied among centres for all models, however the ADNEX models and SRRisk were the best calibrated. Calibration of the estimated risks for the tumour subtypes was good for ADNEX irrespective of whether or not CA125 was included as a predictor. Overall clinical utility (net benefit) was highest for the ADNEX models and SRRisk, and lowest for RMI. For patients who received at least one follow-up scan (n=1958), overall area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.76 (95% confidence interval 0.66 to 0.84) for RMI to 0.89 (0.81 to 0.94) for ADNEX with CA125. CONCLUSIONS: Our study found the ADNEX models and SRRisk are the best models to distinguish between benign and malignant masses in all patients presenting with an adnexal mass, including those managed conservatively. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01698632.
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