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1.
  • Bixby, H., et al. (author)
  • Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults
  • 2019
  • In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 569:7755, s. 260-4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.
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  • Ruilope, LM, et al. (author)
  • Design and Baseline Characteristics of the Finerenone in Reducing Cardiovascular Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease Trial
  • 2019
  • In: American journal of nephrology. - : S. Karger AG. - 1421-9670 .- 0250-8095. ; 50:5, s. 345-356
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • <b><i>Background:</i></b> Among people with diabetes, those with kidney disease have exceptionally high rates of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality and progression of their underlying kidney disease. Finerenone is a novel, nonsteroidal, selective mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist that has shown to reduce albuminuria in type 2 diabetes (T2D) patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) while revealing only a low risk of hyperkalemia. However, the effect of finerenone on CV and renal outcomes has not yet been investigated in long-term trials. <b><i>Patients and</i></b> <b><i>Methods:</i></b> The Finerenone in Reducing CV Mortality and Morbidity in Diabetic Kidney Disease (FIGARO-DKD) trial aims to assess the efficacy and safety of finerenone compared to placebo at reducing clinically important CV and renal outcomes in T2D patients with CKD. FIGARO-DKD is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, parallel-group, event-driven trial running in 47 countries with an expected duration of approximately 6 years. FIGARO-DKD randomized 7,437 patients with an estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥25 mL/min/1.73 m<sup>2</sup> and albuminuria (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio ≥30 to ≤5,000 mg/g). The study has at least 90% power to detect a 20% reduction in the risk of the primary outcome (overall two-sided significance level α = 0.05), the composite of time to first occurrence of CV death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or hospitalization for heart failure. <b><i>Conclusions:</i></b> FIGARO-DKD will determine whether an optimally treated cohort of T2D patients with CKD at high risk of CV and renal events will experience cardiorenal benefits with the addition of finerenone to their treatment regimen. Trial Registration: EudraCT number: 2015-000950-39; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02545049.
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  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • Planck 2015 results XXV. Diffuse low-frequency Galactic foregrounds
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We discuss the Galactic foreground emission between 20 and 100 GHz based on observations by Planck and WMAP. The total intensity in this part of the spectrum is dominated by free-free and spinning dust emission, whereas the polarized intensity is dominated by synchrotron emission. The Commander component-separation tool has been used to separate the various astrophysical processes in total intensity. Comparison with radio recombination line templates verifies the recovery of the free-free emission along the Galactic plane. Comparison of the high-latitude H alpha emission with our free-free map shows residuals that correlate with dust optical depth, consistent with a fraction (approximate to 30%) of H alpha having been scattered by high-latitude dust. We highlight a number of diffuse spinning dust morphological features at high latitude. There is substantial spatial variation in the spinning dust spectrum, with the emission peak (in I-v) ranging from below 20 GHz to more than 50 GHz. There is a strong tendency for the spinning dust component near many prominent H Pi regions to have a higher peak frequency, suggesting that this increase in peak frequency is associated with dust in the photo-dissociation regions around the nebulae. The emissivity of spinning dust in these diffuse regions is of the same order as previous detections in the literature. Over the entire sky, the Commander solution finds more anomalous microwave emission (AME) than the WMAP component maps, at the expense of synchrotron and free-free emission. This can be explained by the difficulty in separating multiple broadband components with a limited number of frequency maps. Future surveys, particularly at 5-20 GHz, will greatly improve the separation by constraining the synchrotron spectrum. We combine Planck and WMAP data to make the highest signal-to-noise ratio maps yet of the intensity of the all-sky polarized synchrotron emission at frequencies above a few GHz. Most of the high-latitude polarized emission is associated with distinct large-scale loops and spurs, and we re-discuss their structure. We argue that nearly all the emission at 40 degrees > l > -90 degrees is part of the Loop I structure, and show that the emission extends much further in to the southern Galactic hemisphere than previously recognised, giving Loop I an ovoid rather than circular outline. However, it does not continue as far as the Fermi bubble/microwave haze, making it less probable that these are part of the same structure. We identify a number of new faint features in the polarized sky, including a dearth of polarized synchrotron emission directly correlated with a narrow, roughly 20 degrees long filament seen in H alpha at high Galactic latitude. Finally, we look for evidence of polarized AME, however many AME regions are significantly contaminated by polarized synchrotron emission, and we find a 2 sigma upper limit of 1.6% in the Perseus region.
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11.
  • Adam, R., et al. (author)
  • Planck 2015 results X. Diffuse component separation : Foreground maps
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Planck has mapped the microwave sky in temperature over nine frequency bands between 30 and 857 GHz and in polarization over seven frequency bands between 30 and 353 GHz in polarization. In this paper we consider the problem of diffuse astrophysical component separation, and process these maps within a Bayesian framework to derive an internally consistent set of full-sky astrophysical component maps. Component separation dedicated to cosmic microwave background (CMB) reconstruction is described in a companion paper. For the temperature analysis, we combine the Planck observations with the 9-yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) sky maps and the Haslam et al. 408 MHz map, to derive a joint model of CMB, synchrotron, free-free, spinning dust, CO, line emission in the 94 and 100 GHz channels, and thermal dust emission. Full-sky maps are provided for each component, with an angular resolution varying between 7: 5 and 1 degrees. Global parameters (monopoles, dipoles, relative calibration, and bandpass errors) are fitted jointly with the sky model, and best-fit values are tabulated. For polarization, the model includes CMB, synchrotron, and thermal dust emission. These models provide excellent fits to the observed data, with rms temperature residuals smaller than 4pK over 93% of the sky for all Planck frequencies up to 353 GHz, and fractional errors smaller than 1% in the remaining 7% of the sky. The main limitations of the temperature model at the lower frequencies are internal degeneracies among the spinning dust, free-free, and synchrotron components; additional observations from external low-frequency experiments will be essential to break these degeneracies. The main limitations of the temperature model at the higher frequencies are uncertainties in the 545 and 857 GHz calibration and zero-points. For polarization, the main outstanding issues are instrumental systematics in the 100-353 GHz bands on large angular scales in the form of temperature-to-polarization leakage, uncertainties in the analogue-to-digital conversion, and corrections for the very long time constant of the bolometer detectors, all of which are expected to improve in the near future.
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12.
  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • Planck 2015 results XX. Constraints on inflation
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We present the implications for cosmic inflation of the Planck measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies in both temperature and polarization based on the full Planck survey, which includes more than twice the integration time of the nominal survey used for the 2013 release papers. The Planck full mission temperature data and a first release of polarization data on large angular scales measure the spectral index of curvature perturbations to be n(s) = 0.968 +/- 0.006 and tightly constrain its scale dependence to dn(s)/dln k = -0.003 +/- 0.007 when combined with the Planck lensing likelihood. When the Planck high-l polarization data are included, the results are consistent and uncertainties are further reduced. The upper bound on the tensor-to-scalar ratio is r(0).(002) < 0.11 (95% CL). This upper limit is consistent with the B-mode polarization constraint r < 0.12 (95% CL) obtained from a joint analysis of the BICEP2/Keck Array and Planck data. These results imply that V(phi) proportional to phi(2) and natural inflation are now disfavoured compared to models predicting a smaller tensor-to-scalar ratio, such as R-2 inflation. We search for several physically motivated deviations from a simple power-law spectrum of curvature perturbations, including those motivated by a reconstruction of the inflaton potential not relying on the slow-roll approximation. We find that such models are not preferred, either according to a Bayesian model comparison or according to a frequentist simulation-based analysis. Three independent methods reconstructing the primordial power spectrum consistently recover a featureless and smooth P-R (k) over the range of scales 0.008 Mpc(-1) less than or similar to k less than or similar to 0.1 Mpc(-1). At large scales, each method finds deviations from a power law, connected to a deficit at multipoles l approximate to 20-40 in the temperature power spectrum, but at an uncompelling statistical significance owing to the large cosmic variance present at these multipoles. By combining power spectrum and non-Gaussianity bounds, we constrain models with generalized Lagrangians, including Galileon models and axion monodromy models. The Planck data are consistent with adiabatic primordial perturbations, and the estimated values for the parameters of the base Lambda cold dark matter (Lambda CDM) model are not significantly altered when more general initial conditions are admitted. In correlated mixed adiabatic and isocurvature models, the 95% CL upper bound for the non-adiabatic contribution to the observed CMB temperature variance is vertical bar alpha(non-adi)vertical bar < 1.9%, 4.0%, and 2.9% for CDM, neutrino density, and neutrino velocity isocurvature modes, respectively. We have tested inflationary models producing an anisotropic modulation of the primordial curvature power spectrum finding that the dipolar modulation in the CMB temperature field induced by a CDM isocurvature perturbation is not preferred at a statistically significant level. We also establish tight constraints on a possible quadrupolar modulation of the curvature perturbation. These results are consistent with the Planck 2013 analysis based on the nominal mission data and further constrain slow-roll single-field inflationary models, as expected from the increased precision of Planck data using the full set of observations.
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  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • Planck 2015 results XXVI. The Second Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The Second Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources is a list of discrete objects detected in single-frequency maps from the full duration of the Planck mission and supersedes previous versions. It consists of compact sources, both Galactic and extragalactic, detected over the entire sky. Compact sources detected in the lower frequency channels are assigned to the PCCS2, while at higher frequencies they are assigned to one of two subcatalogues, the PCCS2 or PCCS2E, depending on their location on the sky. The first of these (PCCS2) covers most of the sky and allows the user to produce subsamples at higher reliabilities than the target 80% integral reliability of the catalogue. The second ( PCCS2E) contains sources detected in sky regions where the diffuse emission makes it difficult to quantify the reliability of the detections. Both the PCCS2 and PCCS2E include polarization measurements, in the form of polarized flux densities, or upper limits, and orientation angles for all seven polarization-sensitive Planck channels. The improved data-processing of the full-mission maps and their reduced noise levels allow us to increase the number of objects in the catalogue, improving its completeness for the target 80% reliability as compared with the previous versions, the PCCS and the Early Release Compact Source Catalogue (ERCSC).
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14.
  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • XXIV. Cosmology from Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster counts
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We present cluster counts and corresponding cosmological constraints from the Planck full mission data set. Our catalogue consists of 439 clusters detected via their Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) signal down to a signal-to-noise ratio of 6, and is more than a factor of 2 larger than the 2013 Planck cluster cosmology sample. The counts are consistent with those from 2013 and yield compatible constraints under the same modelling assumptions. Taking advantage of the larger catalogue, we extend our analysis to the two-dimensional distribution in redshift and signal-to-noise. We use mass estimates from two recent studies of gravitational lensing of background galaxies by Planck clusters to provide priors on the hydrostatic bias parameter, (1 - b). In addition, we use lensing of cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature fluctuations by Planck clusters as an independent constraint on this parameter. These various calibrations imply constraints on the present-day amplitude of matter fluctuations in varying degrees of tension with those from the Planck analysis of primary fluctuations in the CMB; for the lowest estimated values of (1 b) the tension is mild, only a little over one standard deviation, while it remains substantial (3.7 sigma) for the largest estimated value. We also examine constraints on extensions to the base flat Lambda CDM model by combining the cluster and CMB constraints. The combination appears to favour non-minimal neutrino masses, but this possibility does little to relieve the overall tension because it simultaneously lowers the implied value of the Hubble parameter, thereby exacerbating the discrepancy with most current astrophysical estimates. Improving the precision of cluster mass calibrations from the current 10%-level to 1% would significantly strengthen these combined analyses and provide a stringent test of the base Lambda CDM model.
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  • Aghanim, N., et al. (author)
  • Planck 2015 results XI. CMB power spectra, likelihoods, and robustness of parameters
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • This paper presents the Planck 2015 likelihoods, statistical descriptions of the 2-point correlation functions of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization fluctuations that account for relevant uncertainties, both instrumental and astrophysical in nature. They are based on the same hybrid approach used for the previous release, i.e., a pixel-based likelihood at low multipoles (l < 30) and a Gaussian approximation to the distribution of cross-power spectra at higher multipoles. The main improvements are the use of more and better processed data and of Planck polarization information, along with more detailed models of foregrounds and instrumental uncertainties. The increased redundancy brought by more than doubling the amount of data analysed enables further consistency checks and enhanced immunity to systematic effects. It also improves the constraining power of Planck, in particular with regard to small-scale foreground properties. Progress in the modelling of foreground emission enables the retention of a larger fraction of the sky to determine the properties of the CMB, which also contributes to the enhanced precision of the spectra. Improvements in data processing and instrumental modelling further reduce uncertainties. Extensive tests establish the robustness and accuracy of the likelihood results, from temperature alone, from polarization alone, and from their combination. For temperature, we also perform a full likelihood analysis of realistic end-to-end simulations of the instrumental response to the sky, which were fed into the actual data processing pipeline; this does not reveal biases from residual low-level instrumental systematics. Even with the increase in precision and robustness, the Lambda CDM cosmological model continues to offer a very good fit to the Planck data. The slope of the primordial scalar fluctuations, n(s), is confirmed smaller than unity at more than 5 sigma from Planck alone. We further validate the robustness of the likelihood results against specific extensions to the baseline cosmology, which are particularly sensitive to data at high multipoles. For instance, the effective number of neutrino species remains compatible with the canonical value of 3.046. For this first detailed analysis of Planck polarization spectra, we concentrate at high multipoles on the E modes, leaving the analysis of the weaker B modes to future work. At low multipoles we use temperature maps at all Planck frequencies along with a subset of polarization data. These data take advantage of Planck's wide frequency coverage to improve the separation of CMB and foreground emission. Within the baseline Lambda CDM cosmology this requires tau = 0.078 +/- 0.019 for the reionization optical depth, which is significantly lower than estimates without the use of high-frequency data for explicit monitoring of dust emission. At high multipoles we detect residual systematic errors in E polarization, typically at the mu K-2 level; we therefore choose to retain temperature information alone for high multipoles as the recommended baseline, in particular for testing non-minimal models. Nevertheless, the high-multipole polarization spectra from Planck are already good enough to enable a separate high-precision determination of the parameters of the Lambda CDM model, showing consistency with those established independently from temperature information alone.
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16.
  • Adam, R., et al. (author)
  • Planck 2015 results IX. Diffuse component separation : CMB maps
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We present foreground-reduced cosmic microwave background (CMB) maps derived from the full Planck data set in both temperature and polarization. Compared to the corresponding Planck 2013 temperature sky maps, the total data volume is larger by a factor of 3.2 for frequencies between 30 and 70 GHz, and by 1.9 for frequencies between 100 and 857 GHz. In addition, systematic errors in the forms of temperature-topolarization leakage, analogue-to-digital conversion uncertainties, and very long time constant errors have been dramatically reduced, to the extent that the cosmological polarization signal may now be robustly recovered on angular scales l greater than or similar to 40. On the very largest scales, instrumental systematic residuals are still non-negligible compared to the expected cosmological signal, and modes with l < 20 are accordingly suppressed in the current polarization maps by high-pass filtering. As in 2013, four different CMB component separation algorithms are applied to these observations, providing a measure of stability with respect to algorithmic and modelling choices. The resulting polarization maps have rms instrumental noise ranging between 0.21 and 0.27 mu K averaged over 55' pixels, and between 4.5 and 6.1 mu K averaged over 3.'4 pixels. The cosmological parameters derived from the analysis of temperature power spectra are in agreement at the 1 sigma level with the Planck 2015 likelihood. Unresolved mismatches between the noise properties of the data and simulations prevent a satisfactory description of the higher-order statistical properties of the polarization maps. Thus, the primary applications of these polarization maps are those that do not require massive simulations for accurate estimation of uncertainties, for instance estimation of cross-spectra and cross-correlations, or stacking analyses. However, the amplitude of primordial non-Gaussianity is consistent with zero within 2 sigma for all local, equilateral, and orthogonal configurations of the bispectrum, including for polarization E-modes. Moreover, excellent agreement is found regarding the lensing B-mode power spectrum, both internally among the various component separation codes and with the best-fit Planck 2015 Lambda cold dark matter model.
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  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • Planck 2015 results XIX. Constraints on primordial magnetic fields
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We compute and investigate four types of imprint of a stochastic background of primordial magnetic fields (PMFs) on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies: the impact of PMFs on the CMB temperature and polarization spectra, which is related to their contribution to cosmological perturbations; the effect on CMB polarization induced by Faraday rotation; the impact of PMFs on the ionization history; magnetically-induced non-Gaussianities and related non-zero bispectra; and the magnetically-induced breaking of statistical isotropy. We present constraints on the amplitude of PMFs that are derived from different Planck data products, depending on the specific effect that is being analysed. Overall, Planck data constrain the amplitude of PMFs to less than a few nanoGauss, with different bounds that depend on the considered model. In particular, individual limits coming from the analysis of the CMB angular power spectra, using the Planck likelihood, are B-1 (Mpc) < 4.4 nG (where B1 Mpc is the comoving field amplitude at a scale of 1 Mpc) at 95% confidence level, assuming zero helicity. By considering the Planck likelihood, based only on parity-even angular power spectra, we obtain B-1 (Mpc) < 5.6 nG for a maximally helical field. For nearly scale-invariant PMFs we obtain B-1 (Mpc) < 2.0 nG and B-1 (Mpc) < 0.9 nG if the impact of PMFs on the ionization history of the Universe is included in the analysis. From the analysis of magnetically-induced non-Gaussianity, we obtain three different values, corresponding to three applied methods, all below 5 nG. The constraint from the magnetically-induced passive-tensor bispectrum is B-1 (Mpc) < 2.8 nG. A search for preferred directions in the magnetically-induced passive bispectrum yields B-1 (Mpc) < 4.5 nG, whereas the compensated-scalar bispectrum gives B-1 (Mpc) < 3 nG. The analysis of the Faraday rotation of CMB polarization by PMFs uses the Planck power spectra in EE and BB at 70 GHz and gives B-1 (Mpc) < 1380 nG. In our final analysis, we consider the harmonic-space correlations produced by Alfven waves, finding no significant evidence for the presence of these waves. Together, these results comprise a comprehensive set of constraints on possible PMFs with Planck data.
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18.
  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • Planck 2015 results XV. Gravitational lensing
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We present the most significant measurement of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing potential to date (at a level of 40 sigma), using temperature and polarization data from the Planck 2015 full-mission release. Using a polarization-only estimator, we detect lensing at a significance of 5 sigma. We cross-check the accuracy of our measurement using the wide frequency coverage and complementarity of the temperature and polarization measurements. Public products based on this measurement include an estimate of the lensing potential over approximately 70% of the sky, an estimate of the lensing potential power spectrum in bandpowers for the multipole range 40 <= L <= 400, and an associated likelihood for cosmological parameter constraints. We find good agreement between our measurement of the lensing potential power spectrum and that found in the Lambda CDM model that best fits the Planck temperature and polarization power spectra. Using the lensing likelihood alone we obtain a percent-level measurement of the parameter combination sigma(8) Omega(0.25)(m) = 0.591 +/- 0.021. We combine our determination of the lensing potential with the E-mode polarization, also measured by Planck, to generate an estimate of the lensing B-mode. We show that this lensing B-mode estimate is correlated with the B-modes observed directly by Planck at the expected level and with a statistical significance of 10 sigma, confirming Planck's sensitivity to this known sky signal. We also correlate our lensing potential estimate with the large-scale temperature anisotropies, detecting a cross-correlation at the 3 sigma level, as expected because of dark energy in the concordance Lambda CDM model.
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19.
  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • Planck 2015 results XVII. Constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The Planck full mission cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and E-mode polarization maps are analysed to obtain constraints on primordial non-Gaussianity (NG). Using three classes of optimal bispectrum estimators - separable template-fitting (KSW), binned, and modal we obtain consistent values for the primordial local, equilateral, and orthogonal bispectrum amplitudes, quoting as our final result from temperature alone f(NL)(local) = 2.5 +/- 5.7, f(NL)(equil) = 16 +/- 70, and f(NL)(ortho) = 34 +/- 33 (68% CL, statistical). Combining temperature and polarization data we obtain f(NL)(local) = 0.8 +/- 5.0, f(NL)(equil) = 4 +/- 43, and f(NL)(ortho) = 26 +/- 21 (68% CL, statistical). The results are based on comprehensive cross-validation of these estimators on Gaussian and non-Gaussian simulations, are stable across component separation techniques, pass an extensive suite of tests, and are consistent with estimators based on measuring the Minkowski functionals of the CMB. The effect of time-domain de-glitching systematics on the bispectrum is negligible. In spite of these test outcomes we conservatively label the results including polarization data as preliminary, owing to a known mismatch of the noise model in simulations and the data. Beyond estimates of individual shape amplitudes, we present model-independent, three-dimensional reconstructions of the Planck CMB bispectrum and derive constraints on early universe scenarios that generate primordial NG, including general single-field models of inflation, axion inflation, initial state modifications, models producing parity-violating tensor bispectra, and directionally dependent vector models. We present a wide survey of scale-dependent feature and resonance models, accounting for the look elsewhere effect in estimating the statistical significance of features. We also look for isocurvature NG, and find no signal, but we obtain constraints that improve significantly with the inclusion of polarization. The primordial trispectrum amplitude in the local model is constrained to be g(NL)(local) = (9.0 +/- 7.7) x 10(4) (68% CL statistical), and we perform an analysis of trispectrum shapes beyond the local case. The global picture that emerges is one of consistency with the premises of the Lambda CDM cosmology, namely that the structure we observe today was sourced by adiabatic, passive, Gaussian, and primordial seed perturbations.
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20.
  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • Planck 2015 results XIV. Dark energy and modified gravity
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We study the implications of Planck data for models of dark energy (DE) and modified gravity (MG) beyond the standard cosmological constant scenario. We start with cases where the DE only directly affects the background evolution, considering Taylor expansions of the equation of state w(a), as well as principal component analysis and parameterizations related to the potential of a minimally coupled DE scalar field. When estimating the density of DE at early times, we significantly improve present constraints and find that it has to be below similar to 2% (at 95% confidence) of the critical density, even when forced to play a role for z < 50 only. We then move to general parameterizations of the DE or MG perturbations that encompass both effective field theories and the phenomenology of gravitational potentials in MG models. Lastly, we test a range of specific models, such as k-essence, f(R) theories, and coupled DE. In addition to the latest Planck data, for our main analyses, we use background constraints from baryonic acoustic oscillations, type-Ia supernovae, and local measurements of the Hubble constant. We further show the impact of measurements of the cosmological perturbations, such as redshift-space distortions and weak gravitational lensing. These additional probes are important tools for testing MG models and for breaking degeneracies that are still present in the combination of Planck and background data sets. All results that include only background parameterizations (expansion of the equation of state, early DE, general potentials in minimally-coupled scalar fields or principal component analysis) are in agreement with ACDM. When testing models that also change perturbations (even when the background is fixed to ACDM), some tensions appear in a few scenarios: the maximum one found is similar to 2 sigma for Planck TT + lowP when parameterizing observables related to the gravitational potentials with a chosen time dependence; the tension increases to, at most, 3 sigma when external data sets are included. It however disappears when including CMB lensing.
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21.
  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • Planck 2015 results XVIII. Background geometry and topology of the Universe
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Maps of cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization from the 2015 release of Planck data provide the highest quality full-sky view of the surface of last scattering available to date. This enables us to detect possible departures from a globally isotropic cosmology. We present the first searches using CMB polarization for correlations induced by a possible non-trivial topology with a fundamental domain that intersects, or nearly intersects, the last-scattering surface (at comoving distance chi(rec)), both via a direct scan for matched circular patterns at the intersections and by an optimal likelihood calculation for specific topologies. We specialize to flat spaces with cubic toroidal (T3) and slab (T1) topologies, finding that explicit searches for the latter are sensitive to other topologies with antipodal symmetry. These searches yield no detection of a compact topology with a scale below the diameter of the last-scattering surface. The limits on the radius R-i of the largest sphere inscribed in the fundamental domain (at log-likelihood ratio Delta ln L > -5 relative to a simply-connected flat Planck best-fit model) are: R-i > 0.97 chi(rec) for the T3 cubic torus; and R-i > 0.56 chi(rec) for the T1 slab. The limit for the T3 cubic torus from the matched-circles search is numerically equivalent, R-i > 0.97 chi(rec) at 99% confidence level from polarization data alone. We also perform a Bayesian search for an anisotropic global Bianchi VIIh geometry. In the non-physical setting, where the Bianchi cosmology is decoupled from the standard cosmology, Planck temperature data favour the inclusion of a Bianchi component with a Bayes factor of at least 2.3 units of log-evidence. However, the cosmological parameters that generate this pattern are in strong disagreement with those found from CMB anisotropy data alone. Fitting the induced polarization pattern for this model to the Planck data requires an amplitude of -0.10 +/- 0.04 compared to the value of + 1 if the model were to be correct. In the physically motivated setting, where the Bianchi parameters are coupled and fitted simultaneously with the standard cosmological parameters, we find no evidence for a Bianchi VIIh cosmology and constrain the vorticity of such models to (omega/H)(0) < 7.6 x 10(-10) (95% CL).
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22.
  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • XXI. The integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 594
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • This paper presents a study of the integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect from the Planck 2015 temperature and polarization data release. This secondary cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy caused by the large-scale time-evolving gravitational potential is probed from different perspectives. The CMB is cross-correlated with different large-scale structure (LSS) tracers: radio sources from the NVSS catalogue; galaxies from the optical SDSS and the infrared WISE surveys; and the Planck 2015 convergence lensing map. The joint cross-correlation of the CMB with the tracers yields a detection at 4 sigma where most of the signal-to-noise is due to the Planck lensing and the NVSS radio catalogue. In fact, the ISW effect is detected from the Planck data only at approximate to 3 sigma (through the ISW-lensing bispectrum), which is similar to the detection level achieved by combining the cross-correlation signal coming from all the galaxy catalogues mentioned above. We study the ability of the ISW effect to place constraints on the dark-energy parameters; in particular, we show that Omega(Lambda) is detected at more than 3 sigma. This cross-correlation analysis is performed only with the Planck temperature data, since the polarization scales available in the 2015 release do not permit significant improvement of the CMB-LSS cross-correlation detectability. Nevertheless, the Planck polarization data are used to study the anomalously large ISW signal previously reported through the aperture photometry on stacked CMB features at the locations of known superclusters and supervoids, which is in conflict with Lambda CDM expectations. We find that the current Planck polarization data do not exclude that this signal could be caused by the ISW effect. In addition, the stacking of the Planck lensing map on the locations of superstructures exhibits a positive cross-correlation with these large-scale structures. Finally, we have improved our previous reconstruction of the ISW temperature fluctuations by combining the information encoded in all the previously mentioned LSS tracers. In particular, we construct a map of the ISW secondary anisotropies and the corresponding uncertainties map, obtained from simulations. We also explore the reconstruction of the ISW anisotropies caused by the large-scale structure traced by the 2MASS Photometric Redshift Survey (2MPZ) by directly inverting the density field into the gravitational potential field.
  •  
23.
  • Delabrouille, J., et al. (author)
  • Exploring cosmic origins with CORE : Survey requirements and mission design
  • 2018
  • In: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Future observations of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarisation have the potential to answer some of the most fundamental questions of modern physics and cosmology, including: what physical process gave birth to the Universe we see today? What are the dark matter and dark energy that seem to constitute 95% of the energy density of the Universe? Do we need extensions to the standard model of particle physics and fundamental interactions? Is the ACDM cosmological scenario correct, or are we missing an essential piece of the puzzle? In this paper, we list the requirements for a future CMB polarisation survey addressing these scientific objectives, and discuss the design drivers of the CORE space mission proposed to ESA in answer to the M5 call for a medium-sized mission. The rationale and options, and the methodologies used to assess the mission's performance, are of interest to other future CMB mission design studies. CORE has 19 frequency channels, distributed over a broad frequency range, spanning the 60-600 GHz interval, to control astrophysical foreground emission. The angular resolution ranges from 2' to 18', and the aggregate CMB sensitivity is about 2 mu K.arcmin. The observations are made with a single integrated focal-plane instrument, consisting of an array of 2100 cryogenically-cooled, linearly-polarised detectors at the focus of a 1.2-m aperture cross-Dragone telescope. The mission is designed to minimise all sources of systematic effects, which must be controlled so that no more than 10(-4) of the intensity leaks into polarisation maps, and no more than about 1% of E-type polarisation leaks into B-type modes. CORE observes the sky from a large Lissajous orbit around the Sun-Earth L2 point on an orbit that offers stable observing conditions and avoids contamination from sidelobe pick-up of stray radiation originating from the Sun, Earth, and Moon. The entire sky is observed repeatedly during four years of continuous scanning, with a combination of three rotations of the spacecraft over different timescales. With about 50% of the sky covered every few days, this scan strategy provides the mitigation of systematic effects and the internal redundancy that are needed to convincingly extract the primordial B-mode signal on large angular scales, and check with adequate sensitivity the consistency of the observations in several independent data subsets. CORE is designed as a near-ultimate CMB polarisation mission which, for optimal complementarity with ground-based observations, will perform the observations that are known to be essential to CMB polarisation science and cannot be obtained by any other means than a dedicated space mission. It will provide well-characterised, highly-redundant multi-frequency observations of polarisation at all the scales where foreground emission and cosmic variance dominate the final uncertainty for obtaining precision CMB science, as well as 2' angular resolution maps of high-frequency foreground emission in the 300-600 GHz frequency range, essential for complementarity with future ground-based observations with large telescopes that can observe the CMB with the same beamsize.
  •  
24.
  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results XL. The Sunyaev-Zeldovich signal from the Virgo cluster
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The Virgo cluster is the largest Sunyaev-Zeldovich (SZ) source in the sky, both in terms of angular size and total integrated flux. Planck's wide angular scale and frequency coverage, together with its high sensitivity, enable a detailed study of this big object through the SZ effect. Virgo is well resolved by Planck, showing an elongated structure that correlates well with the morphology observed from X-rays, but extends beyond the observed X-ray signal. We find good agreement between the SZ signal (or Compton parameter, y(c)) observed by Planck and the expected signal inferred from X-ray observations and simple analytical models. Owing to its proximity to us, the gas beyond the virial radius in Virgo can be studied with unprecedented sensitivity by integrating the SZ signal over tens of square degrees. We study the signal in the outskirts of Virgo and compare it with analytical models and a constrained simulation of the environment of Virgo. Planck data suggest that significant amounts of low-density plasma surround Virgo, out to twice the virial radius. We find the SZ signal in the outskirts of Virgo to be consistent with a simple model that extrapolates the inferred pressure at lower radii, while assuming that the temperature stays in the keV range beyond the virial radius. The observed signal is also consistent with simulations and points to a shallow pressure profile in the outskirts of the cluster. This reservoir of gas at large radii can be linked with the hottest phase of the elusive warm/hot intergalactic medium. Taking the lack of symmetry of Virgo into account, we find that a prolate model is favoured by the combination of SZ and X-ray data, in agreement with predictions. Finally, based on the combination of the same SZ and X-ray data, we constrain the total amount of gas in Virgo. Under the hypothesis that the abundance of baryons in Virgo is representative of the cosmic average, we also infer a distance for Virgo of approximately 18 Mpc, in good agreement with previous estimates.
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25.
  • Aghanim, N., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results XLVI. Reduction of large-scale systematic effects in HFI polarization maps and estimation of the reionization optical depth
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • This paper describes the identification, modelling, and removal of previously unexplained systematic effects in the polarization data of the Planck High Frequency Instrument (HFI) on large angular scales, including new mapmaking and calibration procedures, new and more complete end-to-end simulations, and a set of robust internal consistency checks on the resulting maps. These maps, at 100, 143, 217, and 353 GHz, are early versions of those that will be released in final form later in 2016. The improvements allow us to determine the cosmic reionization optical depth tau using, for the first time, the low-multipole EE data from HFI, reducing significantly the central value and uncertainty, and hence the upper limit. Two different likelihood procedures are used to constrain tau from two estimators of the CMB E- and B-mode angular power spectra at 100 and 143 GHz, after debiasing the spectra from a small remaining systematic contamination. These all give fully consistent results. A further consistency test is performed using cross-correlations derived from the Low Frequency Instrument maps of the Planck 2015 data release and the new HFI data. For this purpose, end-to-end analyses of systematic effects from the two instruments are used to demonstrate the near independence of their dominant systematic error residuals. The tightest result comes from the HFI-based tau posterior distribution using the maximum likelihood power spectrum estimator from EE data only, giving a value 0.055 +/- 0.009. In a companion paper these results are discussed in the context of the best-fit Planck Lambda CDM cosmological model and recent models of reionization.
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26.
  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results XLI. A map of lensing-induced B-modes
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The secondary cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-modes stem from the post-decoupling distortion of the polarization E-modes due to the gravitational lensing effect of large-scale structures. These lensing-induced B-modes constitute both a valuable probe of the dark matter distribution and an important contaminant for the extraction of the primary CMB B-modes from inflation. Planck provides accurate nearly all-sky measurements of both the polarization E-modes and the integrated mass distribution via the reconstruction of the CMB lensing potential. By combining these two data products, we have produced an all-sky template map of the lensing-induced B-modes using a real-space algorithm that minimizes the impact of sky masks. The cross-correlation of this template with an observed (primordial and secondary) B-mode map can be used to measure the lensing B-mode power spectrum at multipoles up to 2000. In particular, when cross-correlating with the B-mode contribution directly derived from the Planck polarization maps, we obtain lensing-induced B-mode power spectrum measurement at a significance level of 12 sigma, which agrees with the theoretical expectation derived from the Planck best-fit Lambda cold dark matter model. This unique nearly all-sky secondary B-mode template, which includes the lensing-induced information from intermediate to small (10 less than or similar to l less than or similar to 1000) angular scales, is delivered as part of the Planck 2015 public data release. It will be particularly useful for experiments searching for primordial B-modes, such as BICEP2/Keck Array or LiteBIRD, since it will enable an estimate to be made of the lensing-induced contribution to the measured total CMB B-modes.
  •  
27.
  • Adam, R., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results XLII. Large-scale Galactic magnetic fields
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Recent models for the large-scale Galactic magnetic fields in the literature have been largely constrained by synchrotron emission and Faraday rotation measures. We use three different but representative models to compare their predicted polarized synchrotron and dust emission with that measured by the Planck satellite. We first update these models to match the Planck synchrotron products using a common model for the cosmic-ray leptons. We discuss the impact on this analysis of the ongoing problems of component separation in the Planck microwave bands and of the uncertain cosmic-ray spectrum. In particular, the inferred degree of ordering in the magnetic fields is sensitive to these systematic uncertainties, and we further show the importance of considering the expected variations in the observables in addition to their mean morphology. We then compare the resulting simulated emission to the observed dust polarization and find that the dust predictions do not match the morphology in the Planck data but underpredict the dust polarization away from the plane. We modify one of the models to roughly match both observables at high latitudes by increasing the field ordering in the thin disc near the observer. Though this specific analysis is dependent on the component separation issues, we present the improved model as a proof of concept for how these studies can be advanced in future using complementary information from ongoing and planned observational projects.
  •  
28.
  • Adam, R., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results XLVII. Planck constraints on reionization history
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We investigate constraints on cosmic reionization extracted from the Planck cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. We combine the Planck CMB anisotropy data in temperature with the low-multipole polarization data to fit Lambda CDM models with various parameterizations of the reionization history. We obtain a Thomson optical depth tau = 0.058 +/- 0.012 for the commonly adopted instantaneous reionization model. This confirms, with data solely from CMB anisotropies, the low value suggested by combining Planck 2015 results with other data sets, and also reduces the uncertainties. We reconstruct the history of the ionization fraction using either a symmetric or an asymmetric model for the transition between the neutral and ionized phases. To determine better constraints on the duration of the reionization process, we also make use of measurements of the amplitude of the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect using additional information from the high-resolution Atacama Cosmology Telescope and South Pole Telescope experiments. The average redshift at which reionization occurs is found to lie between z = 7.8 and 8.8, depending on the model of reionization adopted. Using kSZ constraints and a redshift-symmetric reionization model, we find an upper limit to the width of the reionization period of Delta z < 2.8. In all cases, we find that the Universe is ionized at less than the 10% level at redshifts above z similar or equal to 10. This suggests that an early onset of reionization is strongly disfavoured by the Planck data. We show that this result also reduces the tension between CMB-based analyses and constraints from other astrophysical sources.
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29.
  • Ade, P. A. R., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results XXXIX. The Planck list of high-redshift source candidates
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The Planck mission, thanks to its large frequency range and all-sky coverage, has a unique potential for systematically detecting the brightest, and rarest, submillimetre sources on the sky, including distant objects in the high-redshift Universe traced by their dust emission. A novel method, based on a component-separation procedure using a combination of Planck and IRAS data, has been validated and characterized on numerous simulations, and applied to select the most luminous cold submillimetre sources with spectral energy distributions peaking between 353 and 857 GHz at 5' resolution. A total of 2151 Planck high-z source candidates (the PHZ) have been detected in the cleanest 26% of the sky, with flux density at 545 GHz above 500 mJy. Embedded in the cosmic infrared background close to the confusion limit, these high-z candidates exhibit colder colours than their surroundings, consistent with redshifts z > 2, assuming a dust temperature of T-xgal = 35K and a spectral index of beta(xgal) = 1.5. Exhibiting extremely high luminosities, larger than 10(14) L-circle dot, the PHZ objects may be made of multiple galaxies or clumps at high redshift, as suggested by a first statistical analysis based on a comparison with number count models. Furthermore, first follow-up observations obtained from optical to submillimetre wavelengths, which can be found in companion papers, have confirmed that this list consists of two distinct populations. A small fraction (around 3%) of the sources have been identified as strongly gravitationally lensed star-forming galaxies at redshift 2 to 4, while the vast majority of the PHZ sources appear as overdensities of dusty star-forming galaxies, having colours consistent with being at z > 2, and may be considered as proto-cluster candidates. The PHZ provides an original sample, which is complementary to the Planck Sunyaev-Zeldovich Catalogue (PSZ2); by extending the population of virialized massive galaxy clusters detected below z < 1.5 through their SZ signal to a population of sources at z > 1.5, the PHZ may contain the progenitors of today's clusters. Hence the Planck list of high-redshift source candidates opens a new window on the study of the early stages of structure formation, particularly understanding the intensively star-forming phase at high-z.
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30.
  • Akrami, Y., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results LIV. The Planck multi-frequency catalogue of non-thermal sources
  • 2018
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 619
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • This paper presents the Planck Multi-frequency Catalogue of Non-thermal (i.e. synchrotron-dominated) Sources (PCNT) observed between 30 and 857 GHz by the ESA Planck mission. This catalogue was constructed by selecting objects detected in the full mission all-sky temperature maps at 30 and 143 GHz, with a signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) > 3 in at least one of the two channels after filtering with a particular Mexican hat wavelet. As a result, 29 400 source candidates were selected. Then, a multi-frequency analysis was performed using the Matrix Filters methodology at the position of these objects, and flux densities and errors were calculated for all of them in the nine Planck channels. This catalogue was built using a different methodology than the one adopted for the Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources (PCCS) and the Second Planck Catalogue of Compact Sources (PCCS2), although the initial detection was done with the same pipeline that was used to produce them. The present catalogue is the first unbiased, full-sky catalogue of synchrotron-dominated sources published at millimetre and submillimetre wavelengths and constitutes a powerful database for statistical studies of non-thermal extragalactic sources, whose emission is dominated by the central active galactic nucleus. Together with the full multi-frequency catalogue, we also define the Bright Planck Multi-frequency Catalogue of Non-thermal Sources (PCNTb), where only those objects with a S/N > 4 at both 30 and 143 GHz were selected. In this catalogue 1146 compact sources are detected outside the adopted Planck GAL070 mask; thus, these sources constitute a highly reliable sample of extragalactic radio sources. We also flag the high-significance subsample (PCNThs), a subset of 151 sources that are detected with S/N > 4 in all nine Planck channels, 75 of which are found outside the Planck mask adopted here. The remaining 76 sources inside the Galactic mask are very likely Galactic objects.
  •  
31.
  • Aghanim, N., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results L. Evidence of spatial variation of the polarized thermal dust spectral energy distribution and implications for CMB B-mode analysis
  • 2017
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 599
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The characterization of the Galactic foregrounds has been shown to be the main obstacle in the challenging quest to detect primordial B-modes in the polarized microwave sky. We make use of the Planck-HFI 2015 data release at high frequencies to place new constraints on the properties of the polarized thermal dust emission at high Galactic latitudes. Here, we specifically study the spatial variability of the dust polarized spectral energy distribution (SED), and its potential impact on the determination of the tensor-to-scalar ratio, r. We use the correlation ratio of the CBB `angular power spectra between the 217 and 353 GHz channels as a tracer of these potential variations, computed on different high Galactic latitude regions, ranging from 80% to 20% of the sky. The new insight from Planck data is a departure of the correlation ratio from unity that cannot be attributed to a spurious decorrelation due to the cosmic microwave background, instrumental noise, or instrumental systematics. The effect is marginally detected on each region, but the statistical combination of all the regions gives more than 99% confidence for this variation in polarized dust properties. In addition, we show that the decorrelation increases when there is a decrease in the mean column density of the region of the sky being considered, and we propose a simple power-law empirical model for this dependence, which matches what is seen in the Planck data. We explore the effect that this measured decorrelation has on simulations of the BICEP2-Keck Array/Planck analysis and show that the 2015 constraints from these data still allow a decorrelation between the dust at 150 and 353 GHz that is compatible with our measured value. Finally, using simplified models, we show that either spatial variation of the dust SED or of the dust polarization angle are able to produce decorrelations between 217 and 353 GHz data similar to the values we observe in the data.
  •  
32.
  • Aghanim, N., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results XLIV. Structure of the Galactic magnetic field from dust polarization maps of the southern Galactic cap
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Using data from the Planck satellite, we study the statistical properties of interstellar dust polarization at high Galactic latitudes around the south pole (b < -60 degrees). Our aim is to advance the understanding of the magnetized interstellar medium (ISM), and to provide a modelling framework of the polarized dust foreground for use in cosmic microwave background (CMB) component-separation procedures. We examine the Stokes I, Q, and U maps at 353 GHz, and particularly the statistical distribution of the polarization fraction (p) and angle (Psi), in order to characterize the ordered and turbulent components of the Galactic magnetic field (GMF) in the solar neighbourhood. The Q and U maps show patterns at large angular scales, which we relate to the mean orientation of the GMF towards Galactic coordinates (l(0); b(0)) = (70 degrees +/- 5 degrees, 24 degrees +/- 5 degrees). The histogram of the observed p values shows a wide dispersion up to 25%. The histogram Psi of has a standard deviation of 12 degrees about the regular pattern expected from the ordered GMF. We build a phenomenological model that connects the distributions of p and Psi to a statistical description of the turbulent component of the GMF, assuming a uniform effective polarization fraction (p(0)) of dust emission. To compute the Stokes parameters, we approximate the integration along the line of sight (LOS) as a sum over a set of N independent polarization layers, in each of which the turbulent component of the GMF is obtained from Gaussian realizations of a power-law power spectrum. We are able to reproduce the observed p and distributions using a p0 value of 26%, a ratio of 0.9 between the strengths of the turbulent and mean components of the GMF, and a small value of N. The mean value of p (inferred from the fit of the large-scale patterns in the Stokes maps) is 12 +/- 1%. We relate the polarization layers to the density structure and to the correlation length of the GMF along the LOS. We emphasize the simplicity of our model (involving only a few parameters), which can be easily computed on the celestial sphere to produce simulated maps of dust polarization. Our work is an important step towards a model that can be used to assess the accuracy of component-separation methods in present and future CMB experiments designed to search the B mode CMB polarization from primordial gravity waves.
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33.
  • Aghanim, N., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results XLVIII. Disentangling Galactic dust emission and cosmic infrared background anisotropies
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Using the Planck 2015 data release (PR2) temperature maps, we separate Galactic thermal dust emission from cosmic infrared background (CIB) anisotropies. For this purpose, we implement a specifically tailored component-separation method, the so-called generalized needlet internal linear combination (GNILC) method, which uses spatial information (the angular power spectra) to disentangle the Galactic dust emission and CIB anisotropies. We produce significantly improved all-sky maps of Planck thermal dust emission, with reduced CIB contamination, at 353, 545, and 857 GHz. By reducing the CIB contamination of the thermal dust maps, we provide more accurate estimates of the local dust temperature and dust spectral index over the sky with reduced dispersion, especially at high Galactic latitudes above b = +/- 20 degrees. We find that the dust temperature is T = (19.4 +/- 1.3) K and the dust spectral index is beta = 1.6 +/- 0.1 averaged over the whole sky, while T = (19.4 +/- 1.5) K and beta = 1.6 +/- 0.2 on 21% of the sky at high latitudes. Moreover, subtracting the new CIB-removed thermal dust maps from the CMB-removed Planck maps gives access to the CIB anisotropies over 60% of the sky at Galactic latitudes vertical bar b vertical bar > 20 degrees. Because they are a significant improvement over previous Planck products, the GNILC maps are recommended for thermal dust science. The new CIB maps can be regarded as indirect tracers of the dark matter and they are recommended for exploring cross-correlations with lensing and large-scale structure optical surveys. The reconstructed GNILC thermal dust and CIB maps are delivered as Planck products.
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34.
  • Aghanim, N., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results XLIX. Parity-violation constraints from polarization data
  • 2016
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 596
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Parity-violating extensions of the standard electromagnetic theory cause in vacuo rotation of the plane of polarization of propagating photons. This effect, also known as cosmic birefringence, has an impact on the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy angular power spectra, producing non-vanishing T-B and E-B correlations that are otherwise null when parity is a symmetry. Here we present new constraints on an isotropic rotation, parametrized by the angle alpha, derived from Planck 2015 CMB polarization data. To increase the robustness of our analyses, we employ two complementary approaches, in harmonic space and in map space, the latter based on a peak stacking technique. The two approaches provide estimates for alpha that are in agreement within statistical uncertainties and are very stable against several consistency tests. Considering the T-B and E-B information jointly, we find alpha = 0 degrees: 31 +/- 0 degrees.05 (stat:) +/- 0 degrees:28 (syst:) from the harmonic analysis and alpha = 0 degrees.35 +/- 0 degrees.05 (stat :) 0 degrees.28 (syst :) from the stacking approach. These constraints are compatible with no parity violation and are dominated by the systematic uncertainty in the orientation of Planck's polarization-sensitive bolometers.
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35.
  • Akrami, Y., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results LII. Planet flux densities
  • 2017
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 607
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Measurements of flux density are described for five planets, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, across the six Planck High Frequency Instrument frequency bands (100-857 GHz) and these are then compared with models and existing data. In our analysis, we have also included estimates of the brightness of Jupiter and Saturn at the three frequencies of the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (30, 44, and 70 GHz). The results provide constraints on the intrinsic brightness and the brightness time-variability of these planets. The majority of the planet flux density estimates are limited by systematic errors, but still yield better than 1% measurements in many cases. Applying data from Planck HFI, the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP), and the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) to a model that incorporates contributions from Saturn's rings to the planet's total flux density suggests a best fit value for the spectral index of Saturn's ring system of beta(ring) = 2 : 30 +/- 0 : 03 over the 30-1000 GHz frequency range. Estimates of the polarization amplitude of the planets have also been made in the four bands that have polarization-sensitive detectors (100-353 GHz); this analysis provides a 95% confidence level upper limit on Mars's polarization of 1.8, 1.7, 1.2, and 1.7% at 100, 143, 217, and 353 GHz, respectively. The average ratio between the Planck-HFI measurements and the adopted model predictions for all five planets (excluding Jupiter observations for 353 GHz) is 1.004, 1.002, 1.021, and 1.033 for 100, 143, 217, and 353 GHz, respectively. Model predictions for planet thermodynamic temperatures are therefore consistent with the absolute calibration of Planck-HFI detectors at about the three-percent level. We compare our measurements with published results from recent cosmic microwave background experiments. In particular, we observe that the flux densities measured by Planck HFI and WMAP agree to within 2%. These results allow experiments operating in the mm-wavelength range to cross-calibrate against Planck and improve models of radiative transport used in planetary science.
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36.
  • Bergman, A. S., et al. (author)
  • 280 GHz Focal Plane Unit Design and Characterization for the SPIDER-2 Suborbital Polarimeter
  • 2018
  • In: Journal of Low Temperature Physics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0022-2291 .- 1573-7357. ; 193:5-6, s. 1075-1084
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We describe the construction and characterization of the 280 GHz bolometric focal plane units (FPUs) to be deployed on the second flight of the balloon-borne SPIDER instrument. These FPUs are vital to SPIDER's primary science goal of detecting or placing an upper limit on the amplitude of the primordial gravitational wave signature in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) by constraining the B-mode contamination in the CMB from Galactic dust emission. Each 280 GHz focal plane contains a 16 x 16 grid of corrugated silicon feedhorns coupled to an array of aluminum-manganese transition-edge sensor (TES) bolometers fabricated on 150 mm diameter substrates. In total, the three 280 GHz FPUs contain 1530 polarization-sensitive bolometers (765 spatial pixels) optimized for the low loading environment in flight and read out by time-division SQUID multiplexing. In this paper, we describe the mechanical, thermal, and magnetic shielding architecture of the focal planes and present cryogenic measurements which characterize yield and the uniformity of several bolometer parameters. The assembled FPUs have high yields, with one array as high as 95% including defects from wiring and readout. We demonstrate high uniformity in device parameters, finding the median saturation power for each TES array to be similar to 3 pW at 300 mK with a less than 6% variation across each array at 1 sigma. These focal planes will be deployed alongside the 95 and 150 GHz telescopes in the SPIDER-2 instrument, slated to fly from McMurdo Station in Antarctica in December 2018.
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37.
  • Aghanim, N., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results LI. Features in the cosmic microwave background temperature power spectrum and shifts in cosmological parameters
  • 2017
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 607
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • The six parameters of the standard Lambda CDM model have best-fit values derived from the Planck temperature power spectrum that are shifted somewhat from the best-fit values derived from WMAP data. These shifts are driven by features in the Planck temperature power spectrum at angular scales that had never before been measured to cosmic-variance level precision. We have investigated these shifts to determine whether they are within the range of expectation and to understand their origin in the data. Taking our parameter set to be the optical depth of the reionized intergalactic medium tau, the baryon density omega(b), the matter density omega(m), the angular size of the sound horizon theta(*), the spectral index of the primordial power spectrum, n(s), and A(s)e(-2 pi) (where As is the amplitude of the primordial power spectrum), we have examined the change in best-fit values between a WMAP-like large angular-scale data set (with multipole moment l < 800 in the Planck temperature power spectrum) and an all angular-scale data set (l < 2500 Planck temperature power spectrum), each with a prior on tau of 0.07 +/- 0.02. We find that the shifts, in units of the 1 sigma expected dispersion for each parameter, are {Delta tau, Delta A(s)e(-2 tau), Delta n(s), Delta omega(m), Delta omega(b), Delta theta(*)} = {-1.7, -2.2, 1.2, 2.0, 1.1, 0.9}, with a chi(2) value of 8.0. We find that this chi(2) value is exceeded in 15% of our simulated data sets, and that a parameter deviates by more than 2.2 sigma in 9% of simulated data sets, meaning that the shifts are not unusually large. Comparing l < 800 instead to l > 800, or splitting at a different multipole, yields similar results. We examined the l < 800 model residuals in the l > 800 power spectrum data and find that the features there that drive these shifts are a set of oscillations across a broad range of angular scales. Although they partly appear similar to the effects of enhanced gravitational lensing, the shifts in Lambda CDM parameters that arise in response to these features correspond to model spectrum changes that are predominantly due to non-lensing effects; the only exception is tau, which, at fixed A(s)e(-2 tau), affects the l > 800 temperature power spectrum solely through the associated change in As and the impact of that on the lensing potential power spectrum. We also ask, what is it about the power spectrum at l < 800 that leads to somewhat different best-fit parameters than come from the full l range? We find that if we discard the data at l < 30, where there is a roughly 2 sigma downward fluctuation in power relative to the model that best fits the full l range, the l < 800 best-fit parameters shift significantly towards the l < 2500 best-fit parameters. In contrast, including l < 30, this previously noted low-l deficit drives ns up and impacts parameters correlated with ns, such as omega(m) and H-0. As expected, the l < 30 data have a much greater impact on the l < 800 best fit than on the l < 2500 best fit. So although the shifts are not very significant, we find that they can be understood through the combined effects of an oscillatory-like set of high-l residuals and the deficit in low-l power, excursions consistent with sample variance that happen to map onto changes in cosmological parameters. Finally, we examine agreement between Planck TT data and two other CMB data sets, namely the Planck lensing reconstruction and the TT power spectrum measured by the South Pole Telescope, again finding a lack of convincing evidence of any significant deviations in parameters, suggesting that current CMB data sets give an internally consistent picture of the Lambda CDM model.
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38.
  • Aghanim, N., et al. (author)
  • Planck intermediate results LIII. Detection of velocity dispersion from the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect
  • 2018
  • In: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 617
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Using the Planck full-mission data, we present a detection of the temperature (and therefore velocity) dispersion due to the kinetic Sunyaev-Zeldovich (kSZ) effect from clusters of galaxies. To suppress the primary CMB and instrumental noise we derive a matched filter and then convolve it with the Planck foreground-cleaned 2D- ILC maps. By using the Meta Catalogue of X-ray detected Clusters of galaxies (MCXC), we determine the normalized rms dispersion of the temperature fluctuations at the positions of clusters, finding that this shows excess variance compared with the noise expectation. We then build an unbiased statistical estimator of the signal, determining that the normalized mean temperature dispersion of 1526 clusters is <(Delta T/T)(2))> = (1.64 +/- 0.48) x 10(-11). However, comparison with analytic calculations and simulations suggest that around 0.7 sigma of this result is due to cluster lensing rather than the kSZ effect. By correcting this, the temperature dispersion is measured to be <(Delta T/T)(2))> = (1.35 +/- 0.48) x 10(-11), which gives a detection at the 2.8 sigma level. We further convert uniform-weight temperature dispersion into a measurement of the line-of-sight velocity dispersion, by using estimates of the optical depth of each cluster (which introduces additional uncertainty into the estimate). We find that the velocity dispersion is (v(2)) = (123 000 +/- 71 000) (km s(-1))(2), which is consistent with findings from other large-scale structure studies, and provides direct evidence of statistical homogeneity on scales of 600 h(-1) Mpc. Our study shows the promise of using cross-correlations of the kSZ effect with large-scale structure in order to constrain the growth of structure.
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39.
  • Remazeilles, M., et al. (author)
  • Exploring cosmic origins with CORE : B-mode component separation
  • 2018
  • In: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. - : IOP Publishing. - 1475-7516. ; :4
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We demonstrate that, for the baseline design of the CORE satellite mission, the polarized foregrounds can be controlled at the level required to allow the detection of the primordial cosmic microwave background (CMB) B-mode polarization with the desired accuracy at both reionization and recombination scales, for tensor-to-scalar ratio values of r greater than or similar to 5 x 10(-3). We consider detailed sky simulations based on state-of-the-art CMB observations that consist of CMB polarization with tau = 0.055 and tensor-to-scalar values ranging from r = 10(-2) to 10(-3), Galactic synchrotron, and thermal dust polarization with variable spectral indices over the sky, polarized anomalous microwave emission, polarized infrared and radio sources, and gravitational lensing effects. Using both parametric and blind approaches, we perform full component separation and likelihood analysis of the simulations, allowing us to quantify both uncertainties and biases on the reconstructed primordial B-modes. Under the assumption of perfect control of lensing effects, CORE would measure an unbiased estimate of r = (5 +/- 0.4) x 10(-3) after foreground cleaning. In the presence of both gravitational lensing effects and astrophysical foregrounds, the significance of the detection is lowered, with CORE achieving a 4 sigma-measurement of r = 5 x 10(-3) after foreground cleaning and 60% de lensing. For lower tensor-to-scalar ratios (r = 10(-3)) the overall uncertainty on r is dominated by foreground residuals, not by the 40% residual of lensing cosmic variance. Moreover, the residual contribution of unprocessed polarized point-sources can be the dominant foreground contamination to primordial B-modes at this r level, even on relatively large angular scales, l similar to 50. Finally, we report two sources of potential bias for the detection of the primordial B-modes by future CMB experiments: (i) the use of incorrect foreground models, e.g. a modelling error of Delta beta(s) = 0.02 on the synchrotron spectral indices may result in an excess in the recovered reionization peak corresponding to an effective Delta r > 10(-3); (ii) the average of the foreground line-of-sight spectral indices by the combined effects of pixelization and beam convolution, which adds an effective curvature to the foreground spectral energy distribution and may cause spectral degeneracies with the CMB in the frequency range probed by the experiment.
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40.
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41.
  • Wilman, H. R., et al. (author)
  • Genetic studies of abdominal MRI data identify genes regulating hepcidin as major determinants of liver iron concentration
  • 2019
  • In: Journal of Hepatology. - : Elsevier. - 0168-8278 .- 1600-0641. ; 71:3, s. 594-602
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background & Aims: Excess liver iron content is common and is linked to the risk of hepatic and extrahepatic diseases. We aimed to identify genetic variants influencing liver iron content and use genetics to understand its link to other traits and diseases. Methods: First, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 8,289 individuals from UK Biobank, whose liver iron level had been quantified by magnetic resonance imaging, before validating our findings in an independent cohort (n = 1,513 from IMI DIRECT). Second, we used Mendelian randomisation to test the causal effects of 25 predominantly metabolic traits on liver iron content. Third, we tested phenome-wide associations between liver iron variants and 770 traits and disease outcomes. Results: We identified 3 independent genetic variants (rs1800562 [C282Y] and rs1799945 [H63D] in HFE and rs855791 [V736A] in TMPRSS6) associated with liver iron content that reached the GWAS significance threshold (p <5 × 10−8). The 2 HFE variants account for ∼85% of all cases of hereditary haemochromatosis. Mendelian randomisation analysis provided evidence that higher central obesity plays a causal role in increased liver iron content. Phenome-wide association analysis demonstrated shared aetiopathogenic mechanisms for elevated liver iron, high blood pressure, cirrhosis, malignancies, neuropsychiatric and rheumatological conditions, while also highlighting inverse associations with anaemias, lipidaemias and ischaemic heart disease. Conclusion: Our study provides genetic evidence that mechanisms underlying higher liver iron content are likely systemic rather than organ specific, that higher central obesity is causally associated with higher liver iron, and that liver iron shares common aetiology with multiple metabolic and non-metabolic diseases. Lay summary: Excess liver iron content is common and is associated with liver diseases and metabolic diseases including diabetes, high blood pressure, and heart disease. We identified 3 genetic variants that are linked to an increased risk of developing higher liver iron content. We show that the same genetic variants are linked to higher risk of many diseases, but they may also be associated with some health advantages. Finally, we use genetic variants associated with waist-to-hip ratio as a tool to show that central obesity is causally associated with increased liver iron content.
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42.
  • Gualtieri, R., et al. (author)
  • SPIDER : CMB Polarimetry from the Edge of Space
  • 2018
  • In: Journal of Low Temperature Physics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0022-2291 .- 1573-7357. ; 193:5-6, s. 1112-1121
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • SPIDER is a balloon-borne instrument designed to map the polarization of the millimeter-wave sky at large angular scales. Spider targets the B-mode signature of primordial gravitational waves in the cosmic microwave background (CMB), with a focus on mapping a large sky area with high fidelity at multiple frequencies. SPIDER's first long-duration balloon (LDB) flight in January 2015 deployed a total of 2400 antenna-coupled transition-edge sensors (TESs) at 90 GHz and 150 GHz. In this work we review the design and in-flight performance of the SPIDER instrument, with a particular focus on the measured performance of the detectors and instrument in a space-like loading and radiation environment. SPIDER's second flight in December 2018 will incorporate payload upgrades and new receivers to map the sky at 285 GHz, providing valuable information for cleaning polarized dust emission from CMB maps.
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43.
  • Nagy, J. M., et al. (author)
  • A New Limit on CMB Circular Polarization from SPIDER
  • 2017
  • In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 844:2
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We present a new upper limit on cosmic microwave background (CMB) circular polarization from the 2015 flight of SPIDER, a balloon-borne telescope designed to search for B-mode linear polarization from cosmic inflation. Although the level of circular polarization in the CMB is predicted to be very small, experimental limits provide a valuable test of the underlying models. By exploiting the nonzero circular-to-linear polarization coupling of the half-wave plate polarization modulators, data from SPIDER's 2015 Antarctic flight provide a constraint on Stokes V at 95 and 150 GHz in the range 33 < l < 307. No other limits exist over this full range of angular scales, and SPIDER improves on the previous limit by several orders of magnitude, providing 95% C.L. constraints on l (l + 1)C-l(VV) /(2 pi) ranging from 141 to 255 mu K-2 at 150 GHz for a thermal CMB spectrum. As linear CMB polarization experiments become increasingly sensitive, the techniques described in this paper can be applied to obtain even stronger constraints on circular polarization.
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44.
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45.
  • Bentham, James, et al. (author)
  • A century of trends in adult human height
  • 2016
  • In: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
  •  
46.
  • Bentham, James, et al. (author)
  • A century of trends in adult human height
  • 2016
  • In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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47.
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48.
  • Zhou, Bin, et al. (author)
  • Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
  • 2016
  • In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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49.
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50.
  • Danaei, Goodarz, et al. (author)
  • Effects of diabetes definition on global surveillance of diabetes prevalence and diagnosis: a pooled analysis of 96 population-based studies with 331288 participants
  • 2015
  • In: The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 3:8, s. 624-637
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Background Diabetes has been defined on the basis of different biomarkers, including fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2-h plasma glucose in an oral glucose tolerance test (2hOGTT), and HbA(1c). We assessed the effect of different diagnostic definitions on both the population prevalence of diabetes and the classification of previously undiagnosed individuals as having diabetes versus not having diabetes in a pooled analysis of data from population-based health examination surveys in different regions. Methods We used data from 96 population-based health examination surveys that had measured at least two of the biomarkers used for defining diabetes. Diabetes was defined using HbA(1c) (HbA(1c) >= 6 . 5% or history of diabetes diagnosis or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs) compared with either FPG only or FPG-or-2hOGTT definitions (FPG >= 7 . 0 mmol/L or 2hOGTT >= 11 . 1 mmol/L or history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated diabetes prevalence, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights. We compared the prevalences of diabetes using different definitions graphically and by regression analyses. We calculated sensitivity and specificity of diabetes diagnosis based on HbA1c compared with diagnosis based on glucose among previously undiagnosed individuals (ie, excluding those with history of diabetes or using insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs). We calculated sensitivity and specificity in each survey, and then pooled results using a random-effects model. We assessed the sources of heterogeneity of sensitivity by meta-regressions for study characteristics selected a priori. Findings Population prevalence of diabetes based on FPG- or-2hOGTT was correlated with prevalence based on FPG alone (r= 0 . 98), but was higher by 2-6 percentage points at different prevalence levels. Prevalence based on HbA(1c) was lower than prevalence based on FPG in 42 . 8% of age-sex-survey groups and higher in another 41 . 6%; in the other 15 . 6%, the two definitions provided similar prevalence estimates. The variation across studies in the relation between glucose-based and HbA(1c)-based prevalences was partly related to participants' age, followed by natural logarithm of per person gross domestic product, the year of survey, mean BMI, and whether the survey population was national, subnational, or from specific communities. Diabetes defined as HbA(1c) 6 . 5% or more had a pooled sensitivity of 52 . 8% (95% CI 51 . 3-54 . 3%) and a pooled specificity of 99 . 74% (99 . 71-99 . 78%) compared with FPG 7 . 0 mmol/L or more for diagnosing previously undiagnosed participants; sensitivity compared with diabetes defined based on FPG-or-2hOGTT was 30 . 5% (28 . 7-32 . 3%). None of the preselected study-level characteristics explained the heterogeneity in the sensitivity of HbA(1c) versus FPG. Interpretation Different biomarkers and definitions for diabetes can provide different estimates of population prevalence of diabetes, and differentially identify people without previous diagnosis as having diabetes. Using an HbA(1c)-based definition alone in health surveys will not identify a substantial proportion of previously undiagnosed people who would be considered as having diabetes using a glucose-based test.
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