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- Carbone, Francesco, et al.
(författare)
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Local dimensionality and inverse persistence analysis of atmospheric turbulence in the stable boundary layer
- 2022
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Ingår i: Physical review. E. - : American Physical Society. - 2470-0045 .- 2470-0053. ; 106:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The dynamics across different scales in the stable atmospheric boundary layer has been investigated by means of two metrics, based on instantaneous fractal dimensions and grounded in dynamical systems theory. The wind velocity fluctuations obtained from data collected during the Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study- 1999 experiment were analyzed to provide a local (in terms of scales) and an instantaneous (in terms of time) description of the fractal properties and predictability of the system. By analyzing the phase-space projections of the continuous turbulent, intermittent, and radiative regimes, a progressive transformation, characterized by the emergence of multiple low-dimensional clusters embedded in a high-dimensional shell and a two-lobe mirror symmetrical structure of the inverse persistence, have been found. The phase space becomes increasingly complex and anisotropic as the turbulent fluctuations become uncorrelated. The phase space is characterized by a three-dimensional structure for the continuous turbulent samples in a range of scales compatible with the inertial subrange, where the phase-space-filling turbulent fluctuations dominate the dynamics, and is low dimensional in the other regimes. Moreover, lower-dimensional structures present a stronger persistence than the higher-dimensional structures. Eventually, all samples recover a three-dimensional structure and higher persistence level at large scales, far from the inertial subrange. The two metrics obtained in the analysis can be considered as proxies for the decorrelation time and the local anisotropy in the turbulent flow.
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| 2. |
- Faranda, Davide, et al.
(författare)
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A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactful weather extremes of 2021
- 2022
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Ingår i: Weather and Climate Dynamics. - : European Geosciences Union (EGU). - 2698-4024 .- 2698-4016. ; 3:4, s. 1311-1340
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The IPCC AR6 report outlines a general consensus that anthropogenic climate change is modifying the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as cold spells, heat waves, storms or floods. A pertinent question is then whether climate change may have affected the characteristics of a specific extreme event or whether such event would have even been possible in the absence of climate change. Here, we address this question by performing an attribution of some major extreme events that occurred in 2021 over Europe and North America: the Winter Storm Filomena, the French spring cold spell, the Westphalia floods, the Mediterranean summer heat wave, Hurricane Ida, the Po Valley tornado outbreak, Medicane Apollo and the late-autumn Scandinavian cold spell. We focus on the role of the atmospheric circulation associated with the events and its typicality in present (factual world) and past climate conditions (counterfactual world) – defined using the ERA5 dataset 1950 to present. We first identify the most similar sea-level pressure patterns to the extreme events of interest in the factual and counterfactual worlds – so-called analogues. We then compute significant shifts in the spatial characteristics, persistence, predictability, seasonality and other characteristics of these analogues. We also diagnose whether in the present climate the analogues of the studied events lead to warmer/cooler or dryer/wetter conditions than in the past. Finally we verify whether the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may explain interdecadal changes in the analogues' characteristics. We find that most of the extreme events we investigate are significantly modified in the present climate with respect to the past, because of changes in the location, persistence and/or seasonality of cyclonic/anticyclonic patterns in the sea-level pressure analogues. One of the events, Medicane Apollo, appears to be a black swan of the atmospheric circulation, with poor-quality analogues. Our approach, complementary to the statistical extreme-event attribution methods in the literature, points to the potentially important role of the atmospheric circulation in attribution studies.
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