| 1. |
- Faranda, Davide, et al.
(författare)
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Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe
- 2023
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 120:13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Diagnosing dynamical changes in the climate system, such as those in atmospheric circulation patterns, remains challenging. Here, we study 1950 to 2021 trends in the frequency of occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic. Roughly 7% of atmospheric circulation patterns display significant occurrence trends, yet they have major impacts on surface climate. Increasingly frequent patterns drive heatwaves across Europe and enhanced wintertime storminess in the northern part of the continent. Over 91% of recent heatwave-related deaths and 33% of high-impact windstorms in Europe were concurrent with increasingly frequent atmospheric circulation patterns. While the trends identified are statistically significant, they are not necessarily anthropogenic. Atmospheric patterns which are becoming rarer correspond instead to wet, cool summer conditions over northern Europe and wet winter conditions over continental Europe. The combined effect of these circulation changes is that of a strong, dynamically driven year-round warming over most of the continent and large regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and surface wind.
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| 2. |
- Faranda, Davide, et al.
(författare)
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Correcting biases in tropical cyclone intensities in low-resolution datasets using dynamical systems metrics
- 2023
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Nature. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 61, s. 4393-4409
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although the life-cycle of tropical cyclones is relatively well understood, many of the underlying physical processes occur at scales below those resolved by global climate models (GCMs). Projecting future changes in tropical cyclone characteristics thus remains challenging. We propose a methodology, based on dynamical system metrics, to reconstruct the statistics of cyclone intensities in coarse-resolution datasets, where maximum wind speed and minimum sea-level pressure may not be accurately represented. We base our analysis on 411 tropical cyclones occurring between 2010 and 2020, using both ERA5 reanalysis data and observations from the HURDAT2 database, as well as a control simulation of the IPSL-CM6A-ATM-ICO-HR model. For both ERA5 and model data, we compute two dynamical system metrics related to the number of degrees of freedom of the atmospheric flow and to the coupling between different atmospheric variables, namely the local dimension and the co-recurrence ratio. We then use HURDAT2 data to develop three bias-correction approaches for SLP minima: a univariate, unconditional quantile–quantile bias correction, a quantile–quantile bias correction conditioned on the two dynamical systems metrics, and a multivariate correction method. The conditional approach generally outperforms the unconditional approach for ERA5, pointing to the usefulness of the dynamical systems metrics in this context. We then show that the multivariate approach can be used to recover a realistic distribution of cyclone intensities from comparatively coarse-resolution model data.
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| 3. |
- Ginesta, Mireia, et al.
(författare)
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A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data : the case study of storm Alex 2020
- 2023
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Ingår i: Climate Dynamics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0930-7575 .- 1432-0894. ; 61:1-2, s. 229-253
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Extreme event attribution aims at evaluating the impact of climate change on specific extreme events. In this work, we present an attribution methodology for severe extratropical cyclones, and test it on storm Alex. Alex was an explosive extratropical cyclone that affected Southern France and Northern Italy at the beginning of October 2020. The methodology exploits mathematical properties of circulation analogues, and identifies changes in physical and statistical properties. We first divide 6-hourly ERA5 data into two periods: a counterfactual period (1950–1984) and a factual period (1986–2021). We then identify the 30 cyclones in each period whose sea-level pressure maps are closest to Alex’s map by selecting those with the lowest Euclidean distance from Alex. We term these “analogues” of Alex. We find that analogues in the factual period are more persistent than in the counterfactual period, which may favour severe impacts resulting from persistent strong winds and heavy precipitation, as was the case for Alex. This effect is compounded by the doubling in accumulated daily precipitation detected in Northern Italy between the counterfactual and factual analogues. In the factual period, the analogues display an increase in the eddy kinetic energy in their growth phase, with poleward-shifted backward tracks. We also identify a seasonal shift of the analogues, from spring to autumn. Finally, the analogues in the factual period are closer to Alex than in the counterfactual period. These changes collectively point to high-impact storms like Alex having become more common in a changing climate.
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| 4. |
- Holmberg, Emma, et al.
(författare)
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The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence
- 2023
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus Publications. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 14:4, s. 737-765
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate the link between warm-temperature extremes in Europe and the persistence of large-scale atmospheric-circulation patterns for both winter and summer, along with some possible physical mechanisms connecting the two. We assess atmospheric persistence, leveraging concepts from dynamical systems theory, and reconcile this approach with the more conventional meteorological views of persistence. We find that wintertime warm spells are partly associated with persistent zonal advection at the surface level but display no statistically significant persistence anomaly in the mid-troposphere. For summertime heatwaves, we find a weak yet significant link to anomalously persistent circulation patterns in the mid-troposphere, while there are few significant persistence anomalies of the surface circulation pattern. We further find no evidence of a strong warm-temperature advection signal. This suggests that other radiative and dynamical processes, for example sensible heating and adiabatic warming, as well as local effects, could play a more important role than large-scale warm-temperature advection for these events. We thus argue that persistent atmospheric configurations are not a necessary requirement for warm-temperature extremes and that the results depend to a considerable extent on region and tropospheric level.
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| 5. |
- Messori, Gabriele, et al.
(författare)
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On the Systematic Occurrence of Compound Cold Spells in North America and Wet or Windy Extremes in Europe
- 2023
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Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 50:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The repeated co-occurrence of cold spells over Eastern North America and wet or windy extremes over Western Continental Europe during recent winters, has led to hypothesize a link between the two. Here, we analyze the interplay between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and co-occurring cold spells in North America and wet or windy extremes in Europe. We collectively term these occurrences compound cold–wet–windy extremes. We leverage a recent approach grounded in dynamical systems theory, which provides an analytically and computationally efficient analysis of spatially resolved, multivariate climate extremes. We find that there are specific, recurrent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns systematically associated with both the individual extremes and co-occurring cold–wet–windy anomalies. Evidence for this is also found when focusing on compound cold–wet–windy extremes, although with a weaker signal. This motivates further analyses focusing specifically on the statistics and drivers of these compound extreme occurrences.
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| 6. |
- Pons, Flavio, et al.
(författare)
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Statistical performance of local attractor dimension estimators in non-Axiom A dynamical systems
- 2023
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Ingår i: Chaos. - : American Institute of Physics (AIP). - 1054-1500 .- 1089-7682. ; 33:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate various estimators based on extreme value theory (EVT) for determining the local fractal dimension of chaotic dynamical systems. In the limit of an infinitely long time series of an ergodic system, the average of the local fractal dimension is the system’s global attractor dimension. The latter is an important quantity that relates to the number of effective degrees of freedom of the underlying dynamical system, and its estimation has been a central topic in the dynamical systems literature since the 1980s. In this work, we propose a framework that combines phase space recurrence analysis with EVT to estimate the local fractal dimension around a particular state of interest. While the EVT framework allows for the analysis of high-dimensional complex systems, such as the Earth’s climate, its effectiveness depends on robust statistical parameter estimation for the assumed extreme value distribution. In this study, we conduct a critical review of several EVT-based local fractal dimension estimators, analyzing and comparing their performance across a range of systems. Our results offer valuable insights for researchers employing the EVT-based estimates of the local fractal dimension, aiding in the selection of an appropriate estimator for their specific applications.
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