| 1. |
- Fridell, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Crossing Borders and Expanding Modal Shift Measures: Effects on Mode Choice and Emissions from Freight Transport in the Nordics
- 2020
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 12:3, s. 894-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Considering the underachievement on modal shift and environmental objectives for freight transport, scholars and policy makers recurrently ask how more road freight can be shifted to rail and waterborne transport. The current study simulates transport and modal distribution effects for several scenarios in which modal shift policy measures are strengthened, expanded, combined, and harmonized across borders in the Nordics. Found transport effects were then used in an environmental model to assess implications for energy use and emissions of CO2,eq, NOx, and particulate matter, gaining insights into which policy measures are more effective or complement each other, and whether international harmonization might increase effectiveness, and modal shift. From our simulations, a Norwegian ecobonus scheme for rail yields larger modal shift away from road than a similar ecobonus for sea transport. Facilitating longer freight trains yields more modal shift but has high policy costs. Effects of harmonizing policies across Nordic countries vary but can be strengthened by combining different measures. However, even for scenarios with strong policy measures, reductions in CO2,eq emissions do not exceed 3.6% in 2030 while sometimes increasing local air pollution. Modal shift policy should therefore not exclusively be regarded as environmental strategy, although it may contribute to other policy objectives.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Johansson, Lasse, et al.
(författare)
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Model for leisure boat activities and emissions – implementation for the Baltic Sea
- 2020
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Ingår i: Ocean Science. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1812-0792 .- 1812-0784. ; 16:5, s. 1143-1163
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The activities and emissions from leisure boats in the Baltic Sea have been modeled in a comprehensive approach for the first time, using a new simulation model leisure Boat Emissions and Activities siMulator (BEAM). The model utilizes survey data to characterize the national leisure boat fleets. Leisure boats have been categorized based on their size, use and engine specifications, and for these subcategories emission factors for NOx, PM2.5, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and releases of copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) from antifouling paints have been estimated according to literature values. The modeling approach also considers the temporal and spatial distribution of leisure boat activities, which are applied to each simulated leisure boat separately. According to our results the CO and NMVOC emissions from leisure boats, as well as Cu and Zn released from antifouling paints, are significant when compared against the emissions originating from registered commercial shipping in the Baltic Sea. CO emissions equal 70 % of the registered shipping emissions and NMVOC emissions equal 160 % when compared against the modeled results in the Baltic Sea in 2014. Modeled NOx and PM2.5 from the leisure boats are less significant compared to the registered shipping emissions. The emissions from leisure boats are concentrated in the summer months of June, July and August and are released in the vicinity of inhabited coastal areas. Given the large emission estimates for leisure boats, this commonly overlooked source of emissions should be further investigated in greater detail.
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| 4. |
- Johansson, L., et al.
(författare)
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Modeling of Leisure Craft Emissions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Springer Proceedings in Complexity. - Cham : Springer International Publishing. - 2213-8684 .- 2213-8692. ; , s. 205-210
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Commercial shipping fleet and its emissions can be modeled in detail, but the emission from leisure craft are often invisible for activity based, bottom-up emission inventories. A new model (FMI-BEAM) describes the emissions from the leisure craft fleet in the Baltic Sea area, complementing the existing STEAM emission modeling suite. BEAM combines information from over 3000 boat marina locations, national small boat registries, Automatic Identification System data and boat survey results to derive leisure boat emissions for over 250,000 boats around the Baltic Sea coastline. The location of marinas and boat counts were determined from satellite images and other available data. With the BEAM leisure craft simulation model the spatial and temporal distribution of air emissions can be estimated. The presented results describe our first attempt to generate fuel consumption and emission inventory for small boats which have been underrepresented in current emission inventories. Small boat activity often occurs near the coastline in vicinity of populated areas and leisure craft emissions contribute to local air quality. The emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons are high compared to the emissions of commercial shipping, because very high emission levels are allowed for old small boat engines according to current legislation. The approach described in this paper can be applied in larger scale, for example to cover European coastlines in the future.
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| 5. |
- Kukkonen, J., et al.
(författare)
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Towards a Comprehensive Evaluation of the Environmental and Health Impacts of Shipping Emissions
- 2022
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Ingår i: Springer Proceedings in Complexity. - Cham : Springer International Publishing. - 2213-8684 .- 2213-8692. ; , s. 329-336
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a new concept for marine research, applied in the EU-funded project EMERGE, “Evaluation, control and Mitigation of the EnviRonmental impacts of shippinG Emissions” (2020–2024; https://emerge-h2020.eu/ ). For the first time, both the various marine and atmospheric impacts of the shipping sector have been and will be comprehensively analyzed, using a concerted modelling and measurements framework. The experimental part of the project focuses on five European geographical case studies in different ecologically vulnerable regions, and a mobile onboard case study. The EMERGE consortium has also developed a harmonised and integrated modelling framework to assess the combined impacts of shipping emissions, both (i) on the marine ecosystems and (ii) the atmospheric environment. The first results include substantial refinements of a range of models to be applied, especially those for the STEAM and OpenDrift models. In particular, the STEAM (Ship Traffic Emission Assessment Model) model has been extended to allow for the effects of atmospheric and oceanographic factors on the fuel consumption and emissions of the ships. The OpenDrift model has been improved to take into account the partitioning, degradation, and volatilization of pollutants in water. The predicted emission and discharge values have been used as input for both regional scale atmospheric dispersion models, such as WRF-CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting—Community Multiscale Air Quality Model) and SILAM (System for Integrated modeLling of Atmospheric composition), and water quality and circulation models, such as OpenDrift (Open source model for the drifting of substances in the ocean) and Delft3D (oceanographic model). The case study regions are Eastern Mediterranean, Northern Adriatic Sea, the Lagoon of Aveiro, the Solent Strait and the Öresund Strait. We have also conducted a substantial part of the experimental campaigns scheduled in the project. The final assessment will include the benefits and costs of control and mitigation options affecting water quality, air pollution exposure, health impacts, climate forcing, and ecotoxicological effects and bioaccumulation of pollutants in marine biota.
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| 6. |
- Lunde Hermansson, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Strong economic incentives of ship scrubbers promoting pollution
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - Göteborg : IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet. - 2398-9629.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In response to stricter regulations on ship air emissions, many shipowners have installed exhaust gas cleaning systems, known as scrubbers, allowing for use of cheap residual heavy fuel oil. Scrubbers produce large volumes of acidic and polluted water that is discharged to the sea. Due to environmental concerns, the use of scrubbers is being discussed within the International Maritime Organization. Real-world simulations of global scrubber-vessel activity, applying actual fuel costs and expenses related to scrubber operations, show that 51% of the global scrubber-fitted fleet reached economic break even by the end of 2022, with a surplus of €4.7 billion in 2019 euros. Within five years after installation, more than 95% of the ships with the most common scrubber systems reach break even. However, the marine ecotoxicity damage cost, from scrubber water discharge in the Baltic Sea Area 2014–2022, amounts to >€680 million in 2019 euros, showing that private economic interests come at the expense of marine environmental damage.
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| 7. |
- Lunde Hermansson, Anna, 1987, et al.
(författare)
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Strong economic incentives of ship scrubbers promoting pollution
- 2024
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - Göteborg : IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet. - 2398-9629. ; In Press
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In response to stricter regulations on ship air emissions, many shipowners have installed exhaust gas cleaning systems, known as scrubbers, allowing for use of cheap residual heavy fuel oil. Scrubbers produce large volumes of acidic and polluted water that is discharged to the sea. Due to environmental concerns, the use of scrubbers is being discussed within the International Maritime Organization. Real-world simulations of global scrubber-vessel activity, applying actual fuel costs and expenses related to scrubber operations, show that 51% of the global scrubber-fitted fleet reached economic break even by the end of 2022, with a surplus of €4.7 billion in 2019 euros. Within five years after installation, more than 95% of the ships with the most common scrubber systems reach break even. However, the marine ecotoxicity damage cost, from scrubber water discharge in the Baltic Sea Area 2014–2022, amounts to >€680 million in 2019 euros, showing that private economic interests come at the expense of marine environmental damage.
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| 8. |
- Moldanova, Jana, et al.
(författare)
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Framework for the environmental impact assessment of operational shipping
- 2022
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 51:3, s. 754-769
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Shipping is an important source of pollution affecting both atmospheric and aquatic environments. To allow for efficient mitigation of environmental degradation, it is essential to know the extent of the impacts of shipping in relation to other sources of pollution. Here, we give a perspective on a holistic approach to studies of the environmental impacts of operational shipping through presentation of an assessment framework developed and applied on a case of shipping in the Baltic Sea. Through transfer of knowledge and concepts, previously used in assessments of air pollution, now applied to assessments of marine pollution and underwater noise, the horizon of understanding of shipping-related impacts is significantly improved. It identifies the main areas of environmental degradation caused by shipping and potential improvements through legislation and technological development. However, as the vast majority of contaminants discharged into the sea are not routinely monitored and assessed, the links between pressure of contaminants from shipping and environmental state and impacts will not be caught in the current environmental regulatory frameworks.
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| 9. |
- Parsmo, Rasmus, et al.
(författare)
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Environmental discounts for Swedish ports and fairways: A ship owner perspective
- 2024
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Ingår i: Marine Policy. - Göteborg : IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet. - 0308-597X .- 1872-9460. ; 159, s. 105950-105950
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sweden has adopted environmental discounts for ships arriving at fairways and in some ports to encourage investment in measures to reduce shipping’s impact on climate change, air quality and marine environment. The present study investigates the impact of these discounts in 2020 on investment decisions made by ship-owners. As a starting point, this impact was assessed by comparing the potential annual benefits of the discounts with the annualized costs of retrofitting four selected abatement technologies.The results indicate that, while the port discounts are relatively small when compared to the costs of abatement, the fairway discounts could be significant for ships frequently calling at Swedish ports under specific conditions. However, we conclude that the discounts alone are insufficient to incentivize ship-owners to invest in abatement technologies for older ships. To improve the usefulness of these discounts, the design should incorporate a more precise internalization of abatement costs. This could be achieved by implementing individual discounts for different abatement strategies, establishing dedicated subsidies for high-cost innovative technologies, enhancing scoring systems, and by better matching the discount with other market-based policies internationally.
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| 10. |
- Ytreberg, Erik, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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EMERGE deliverable 6.1. Baltic and North Sea report
- 2023
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Shipping is responsible for a range of different pressures affecting air quality, climate, and the marine environment. However, most social and economic analysis of shipping have focused on air pollution assessment and how shipping may impact climate change and human health. This risks policies to be biased towards air pollution and climate change, while trading off impacts on the marine environment. One example is the IMO’s global sulphur cap, which requires shipowners to use a compliant fuel with a sulphur content of 0.5% (0.1% in SECA regions) or use alternative compliance options (scrubbers) that are effective in reducing sulphur oxide (SOX) emissions to the atmosphere. The scrubber process results in large volumes of acidic discharge water. Although regulations primarily target SOX removal, other pollutants such as polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and metals are transferred from the exhausts to the wash water and subsequently discharged to the marine environment. The aim of this deliverable has therefore been to develop a holistic framework to evaluate the impacts of shipping emissions, particularly those related to scrubbers, on the marine environment, human health, climate, and economy. The structure of this deliverable follows the well-established DAPSIR (Driver-Activity-Pressure-State-Impact-Response) framework, under which information, findings and conclusions from previous work packages are synthesized and integrated, including experiments of direct emissions from shipping to the marine environment (WP2) and the atmosphere (WP3), assessment of marine environmental impacts (WP2, WP4 and WP6), as well as human health and climate change impacts (WP5 and WP6). Finally, this deliverable provides recommendations and guidance for stakeholders and policymakers. The assessment is performed using a baseline scenario (year 2018) and three future scenarios (for year 2050) based on different projected future developments of shipping transport volumes and considering the development of ships regarding fuel efficiency and ship size. In this deliverable, we focused primarily on two of the different future scenarios, scenario 3 (high scrubber pressure) and scenario 8 (high use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and methanol). The marine environmental risk assessment, performed in the Öresund region for the baseline scenario (2018), showed unacceptable risks when ships in the area were using open loop scrubbers. In the assessment, modelled predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) of open loop scrubber discharge water exceeded the tolerable marine threshold value (predicted no-effect concentration, PNEC) in almost the entire Öresund region. The PEC value was derived based on ship activity and discharges of scrubber water in 2018, while the PNEC value was derived based on the ecotoxicological assays performed within the EMERGE project. Notably, the modelling of open loop scrubber discharge water was performed using the ship traffic activity in 2018 when less than 200 ships in the Baltic Sea used scrubbers, collectively releasing 192 million tonnes of discharge water. By 2022 there were approximately 800 ships equipped with scrubbers in the Baltic Sea. In the high scrubber future scenario (S3) in 2050 this led to an assumption of the considerably higher scrubber water discharge (1740 million tonnes), representing almost one order of magnitude higher compared to our baseline scenario in 2018. In addition, our impact assessment, following Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) guidelines, shows that a ban on discharge water from scrubbers should be considered in the entire Baltic and North Sea region, since all sea basins in the region fail to reach good environmental status (GES) as defined by the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (Directive 2008/56/EC). However, the costs of such a measure for the shipping sector (banning discharges from scrubbers, i.e., in practice a ban on scrubbers) have been questioned within the International Maritime Organisation (IMO). Therefore, EMERGE also focused on analysing to what extent the global scrubber fleet has reached break-even on their scrubber installations and the potential monetary gain of using Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) as compared to the more expensive Marine Gas Oil (MGO) or Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO). Our results showed that 51% of the global scrubber fleet had reached break-even by the end of 2022, resulting in a summarised balance of 4.7 billion €2019. In addition, the marine ecotoxicity damage cost, by not restricting scrubbers in the Baltic Sea Area, accumulated to >680 million €2019 from 2015 to end of 2022. For air quality, both future scenarios showed a decrease in shipping contribution to PM2.5 exposure by a factor of 2 to 3 compared to our baseline scenario in 2018. Scenario 8 is somewhat more efficient in decreasing the shipping originated PM2.5 than scenario 3. Using the Greenhouse gas and Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model for human health impact assessment in scenario 3 revealed the loss of life expectancy in most areas around the Baltic Sea, when considering all sources, to be limited to two to four months. However, the differences in life shortening between Scenarios 3 and 8 are two to three orders of magnitude lower when compared to human health impacts resulting from all sources, indicating that scrubbers alone have a minor impact on human health in the Baltic region from air quality perspective. For Öresund case the shipping-related health impacts from PM2.5 represented approximately 10% of the total burden of air pollution, in 2050 scenario simulations this burden decreased to 7-9%. Important improvement of air quality in the scenario simulations come also from reduction of NO2 which is a criteria pollutant regulated by the Air Quality Directive, where the decrease is 3 to 5-fold. In relative terms the shipping contribution to NO2 concentration levels, however, maintains similar, approximately 25%, as the land emissions are also expected to decrease. The GAINS health impact assessment for the Baltic Sea was compared to the Solent region using a statistical technique. The latter study showed that a relatively small fraction of all premature deaths in Southampton, Portsmouth, Poole, Christchurch & Bournemouth are attributable to air pollution from shipping, corroborating the conclusion that the deployment scrubbers alone has a minor impact on human life shortening through atmospheric transport.
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| 11. |
- Ytreberg, Erik, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Valuating environmental impacts from ship emissions – The marine perspective
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 282
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Shipping is an activity responsible for a range of different pressures affecting the marine environment, air quality and human welfare. The methodology on how ship emissions impact air quality and human health are comparatively well established and used in cost-benefit analysis of policy proposals. However, the knowledge base is not the same for impacts on the marine environment and a coherent environmental and socio-economic impact assessment of shipping has not yet been made. This risk policies to be biased towards air pollution whilst trading off impacts on the marine environment. The aim of the current study was to develop a comprehensive framework on how different pressures from shipping degrade marine ecosystems, air quality and human welfare. A secondary aim was to quantify the societal damage costs of shipping due to the degradation of human welfare in a Baltic Sea case study. By adding knowledge from marine ecotoxicology and life-cycle analysis to the existing knowledge from climate, air pollution and environmental economics we were able to establish a more comprehensive conceptual framework that allows for valuation of environmental impacts from shipping, but it still omits economic values for biological pollution, littering and underwater noise. The results for the Baltic Sea case showed the total annual damage costs of Baltic Sea shipping to be 2.9 billion €2010 (95% CI 2.0–3.9 billion €2010). The damage costs due to impacts on marine eutrophication (768 million €2010) and marine ecotoxicity (582 million €2010) were in the same range as the total damage costs associated with reduced air quality (816 million €2010) and climate change (737 million €2010). The framework and the results from the current study can be used in future socio-economic assessments of ship emissions to prioritize cost efficient measures. The framework can be used globally but the damage costs presented on the marine environment are restricted to emissions on the Baltic Sea and Kattegat region as they are based on willingness to pay studies conducted on citizens around the Baltic Sea where eutrophication and emissions of chemicals are particularly threats to the state of the Baltic Sea.
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| 12. |
- Flodén, Jonas, 1974, et al.
(författare)
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Shipping in the EU emissions trading system: implications for mitigation, costs and modal split
- 2024
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Ingår i: Climate Policy. - Stockholm : IVL Svenska Miljöinstitutet. - 1752-7457 .- 1469-3062. ; In Press
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- EU recently decided to include shipping, meaning all intra-European shipping and 50% of extra-European voyages, in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) beginning in 2024. This article provides an early assessment of the impacts of the EU ETS on the shipping sector’s potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions for different types of ships. It further examines selected mitigation measures and the impact on modals split and costs. The study employs a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative estimates (based on data from the EU monitoring, reporting and verification system) with qualitative data and information from interviews with key actors and from previous literature. This approach aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impacts of the EU ETS. The inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS is expected to introduce significant incentives to reduce emissions. We estimate that switching to bio-methanol at an emissions allowance price of €90–100/tCO2 will be cost-effective for a minor share of shipping segments (representing about 0.5-5% of all ships), whereas at a price above €150/tCO2 it could be cost-effective for a considerable share (potentially 75%) of ships. In the short term, the costs incurred by the EU ETS will be passed on to transport customers as a surcharge. The increased cost may, unless properly addressed, drive carbon leakage. Meanwhile, a modal shift away from shipping may occur in the roll-on, roll-off (RoRo) and roll-on passenger (RoPax) segments due to direct competition with road and rail transport and the relative ease of shifting to other modes of transport.
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| 13. |
- Fridell, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Emission factors for shipping in scenarios
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report presents emission factors for domestic and international shipping in scenarios up to 2050 for methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, particulate matter and black carbon. The scenarios account for the decided regulations on fuels’ sulphur content and on emissions of nitrogen oxides as well as the anticipated use of abatement technologies such as scrubbers and selective catalytic reduction.Further, an update of some emission factors for 2019 is included, with focus on nitrogen oxides and black carbon, as well as recently introduced fuel types. Finally, the potential to review historical data and the improvement potential for existing emission factors are discussed.
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| 14. |
- Fridell, Erik, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Measurements of Emissions to Air from a Marine Engine Fueled by Methanol
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Marine Science and Application. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1993-5048 .- 1671-9433. ; 20:1, s. 38-143
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Emissions of exhaust gases and particulate matter from a dual fuel marine engine using methanol as fuel with marine gasoil as pilot fuel have been examined for a ferry during operation. The emission factor for nitrogen oxides is lower than what is typically found for marine gasoil but does not reach the tier III limit. The emissions of particulate matter are significantly lower than for fuel oils and similar to what is found for LNG engines. The main part of the particles can be found in the ultrafine range with the peak being at around 18 nm. About 93% of the particles are evaporated and absorbed when using a thermodenuder, and thus a large majority of the particles are volatile. Methanol is a potential future marine fuel that will reduce emissions of air pollutants and can be made as a biofuel to meet emission targets for greenhouse gases.
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| 15. |
- Fridell, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Revised emission factors for shipping
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A need to update historical emission factors for shipping has been identified. This is caused both by the availability of new data, e.g., regarding emissions of particulate matter, and better methods to describe the types of engines used in national traffic.This report presents updated emission factors for domestic and international shipping for the years 1990-2020 for sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and black carbon. An review has also been done in regard to methane, nitrous oxide and volatile organic compounds but has not led to any revisions. Updated emission factors are based on literature studies and knowledge about the ships in Swedish waters.The revised emission factors lead to only a small change for sulphur dioxide emissions. Emissions of nitrogen oxides decrease, seen to the total emissions, between 2006 and 2019 compared to emissions as reported in submission 2021. Also ammonia emissions decrease between 2005 and 2019, except for 2011-2013 when emissions increase slightly compared to submission 2021. The emission factors for particles have been revised for the entire time series and result for some years in lower and for some years in higher emissions compared to emissions reported in submission 2021. On a percentual basis, the change is the largest for black carbon emissions, which decrease by two thirds in 2020 for domestic navigation. The overall trend for black carbon emissions is also the most affected of all included pollutants, from a decreasing trend in submission 2021 to almost constant emissions using the revised emission factors.
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| 16. |
- Fridell, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Studie på sjöfartsområdet : Styrmedel och scenarier för sjöfartens omställning
- 2022
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Sjöfarten står inför en stor omställning mot fossilfri drift av fartygen. Denna rapport beskriver styrmedel, tekniska frågor, hinder och scenarier för framtiden relaterat till denna utveckling. Inom IMO (International Maritime Organization) finns mål uppsatta för en minskning av utsläppen av växthusgaser från sjöfarten, styrmedel för kortsiktiga åtgärder finns på plats, främst avseende energieffektivisering, och mer långsiktiga ”market based measures” diskuteras. Inom EU finns ett antal förslag som när de implementeras kommer att få stor inverkan på sjöfarten och dess utsläpp av växthusgaser. I Sverige finns bland annat miljödifferentierade farledsavgifter och ecobonus, men ytterligare kraftfulla styrmedel krävs för att nå de mål om minskning av växthusgasutsläpp som satts upp.Det finns ett stort antal möjliga framtida hållbara marina bränslen som diskuteras t.ex. ammoniak, metan, metanol, vätgas och syntetisk diesel. I tillägg fortgår utvecklingen med ökad användning av eldrift.Ett antal scenarier presenteras i rapporten för utvecklingen av bränslemix och utsläpp av växthusgaser för svensk sjöfart, med syftet att analysera olika tänkbara styrmedel. Resultaten visar att el- och gasdrift kan bidra till att minska ökningen av emissioner av växthusgaser, men att ytterligare åtgärder behövs för att åstadkomma en sänkning av emissionerna. I ett scenario analyseras effekterna av de styrmedel som föreslås inom EU:s ”Fit for 55”.Det finns ett antal hinder som kan försena en utveckling mot ökad hållbarhet inom svensk sjöfart, både för eldrift och förnybara bränslen. Vidare diskuteras styrmedel som kan införas på nationell nivå. Här analyseras styrmedel för ökad användning av el, om en reduktionsplikt kan införas även för marina bränslen, en potentiell CO2-fond, investeringsstöd till ny teknik och bränsleinfrastruktur, klimatkrav på statens flotta, breddad ekobonus samt en vidareutveckling av miljödifferentierade farledsavgifter.
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| 17. |
- Fridell, Kent, et al.
(författare)
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Multifunktionella urbana dagvattenanläggningar : Referensanläggningar
- 2022
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Föreliggande rapport är en sammanställning över ett antal av de dagvattenanläggningar och de forskningsstudier som pågått inom ramen för Formas-projektet Multifunktionella urbana dagvattenanläggningar. Projektets mål var att snabba på implementeringen och erfarenhetsspridningav de nya konstruktionslösningarna och verktygen för stadsplanering, projektering och anläggning som togs fram inom Vinnova-projektet Klimat säkrade Systemlösning för Urbana ytor. Ett projekt vars huvudsyfte varit att ta fram och utvärdera nya dagvattenanläggningar och systemlösningar som främjar lokalt omhändertagande av dagvatten och har integrerats i stadsmiljö. De anläggningar som tas upp i rapporten är öppen överbyggnad med tät eller dränerande beläggning, regnbäddar och träd i hårdgjord yta. Totalt omnämns fem projekt från tre kommuner och ett privat företag, från södra till mellersta Sverige. Inom varje projekt finns flera anläggningar och som kan bestå av olika konstruktioner och utformning. Syftet med rapporten är att ge en samlad bild över de dagvattenanläggningar och forskningsstudier som ingår i projektet Multifunktionella urbana dagvattenanläggningar. Rapporten riktar sig till de med intresse av att anlägga hållbara dagvattensystem i urbana områden. I befintlig bebyggelse likväl som i vid nyexploatering.
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| 18. |
- Hansson, Julia, et al.
(författare)
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HOPE - Hydrogen fuel cells solutions in Nordic shipping. Project summary : A Nordic Maritime Transport and Energy Research Programme Project
- 2023
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The Nordic countries aim for a carbon-neutral Nordic region. Maritime transport is one of the key remaining sectors to decarbonize and is important from a Nordic perspective due to the relatively large Nordic involvement in this industry. The HOPE project addresses how regional shipping in the Nordic region can do the transition to become fossil-free. The project aims at clarifying the potential role of hydrogen based marine solutions in reducing the Nordic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the centre of the project is a ship concept where a typical RoPax-vessel with operating distances of around 100 nautical miles is designed for including operation with hydrogen as fuel and fuel cells for energy conversion. The overall design of the concept ship is compared with selected other fuel alternatives from a cost perspective. Further, both the conditions for designing such a ship and the consequences are studied. The conditions include technical design and costs of fuel systems and handling, powertrains etc. but also an analysis of barriers and drivers for the realisation of hydrogen solutions for shipping, such as economic, legal, and policy issues. For example, in terms of drivers, policy options needed to accelerate the uptake of hydrogen based marine solutions are assessed. Strategies and the potential of producing these fuels in the Nordic region are also reviewed from a shipping perspective. A realistic potential for uptake of these technologies/fuels by Nordic shipping are assessed and the benefits regarding lower emissions of GHGs and air pollutants are estimated. This report summarizes the assessments made in the HOPE project including main findings.
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| 19. |
- Hansson, Julia, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of including maritime transport in the EU ETS
- 2022
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The European Green Deal from the European Commission in 2019 set a high aim: that EU will become climate neutral by 2050. As a part of this, the European Commission proposed that the EU Emission Trading System (ETS), is extended to include the maritime sector. This report assesses different design features of shipping in ETS, analyse the impact on the shipping industry and the environment. The report investigates what impacts the inclusion of shipping may have on incentives for abatement, what types of emission reductions may follow, if the policy will lead to modal shifts or carbon leakage (meaning that vessels avoid EU ports in order to evade the policy) and what attitudes and expectations can be found among Swedish shipping lines and transport customers.
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| 20. |
- Hansson, Julia, 1978, et al.
(författare)
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The Potential Role of Ammonia as Marine Fuel-Based on Energy Systems Modeling and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
- 2020
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 12:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To reduce the climate impact of shipping, the introduction of alternative fuels is required. There is a range of different marine fuel options but ammonia, a potential zero carbon fuel, has recently received a lot of attention. The purpose of this paper is to assess the prospects for ammonia as a future fuel for the shipping sector in relation to other marine fuels. The assessment is based on a synthesis of knowledge in combination with: (i) energy systems modeling including the cost-effectiveness of ammonia as marine fuel in relation to other fuels for reaching global climate targets; and (ii) a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach ranking marine fuel options while considering estimated fuel performance and the importance of criteria based on maritime stakeholder preferences. In the long-term and to reach global GHG reduction, the energy systems modeled indicate that the use of hydrogen represents a more cost-effective marine fuel option than ammonia. However, in the MCDA covering more aspects, we find that ammonia may be almost as interesting for shipping related stakeholders as hydrogen and various biomass-based fuels. Ammonia may to some extent be an interesting future marine fuel option, but many issues remain to be solved before large-scale introduction.
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| 21. |
- Hansson, Julia, et al.
(författare)
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The Potential Role of Ammonia as Marine Fuel – Based on Energy Systems Modelling and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis
- 2020
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 12:8, s. 3265-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To reduce the climate impact of shipping the introduction of alternative fuels is required. There is a range of different marine fuel options but ammonia, a potential zero carbon fuel, has recently received a lot of attention. The purpose of this paper is to assess the prospects for ammonia as a future fuel for the shipping sector in relation to other marine fuels. The assessment is based on a synthesis of knowledge in combination with (i) energy systems modelling including the cost-effectiveness of ammonia as marine fuel in relation to other fuels for reaching global climate targets and (ii) a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach ranking marine fuel options while considering estimated fuel performance and the importance of criteria based on maritime stakeholder preferences. In the long-term and to reach global GHG reduction, the energy systems modelling indicate that the use of hydrogen represent a more cost-effective marine fuel option than ammonia. However, in the MCDA covering more aspects we find that ammonia may be almost as interesting for shipping related stakeholders as hydrogen and various biomass-based fuels. Ammonia may to some extent be an interesting future marine fuel option, but many issues remains to be solved before large-scale introduction.
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| 22. |
- Jivén, Karl, et al.
(författare)
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Concept design and environmental analysis of a fuel cell RoPax vessel - Report in the HOPE (Hydrogen fuel cells solutions in shipping in relation to other low carbon options) project
- 2023
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report includes a ship concept design developed for a RoPax ship (a ferry transporting passengers and goods) with hydrogen fuel cell propulsion for intended operations on the route Frederikshavn (Denmark) to Gothenburg (Sweden). The assessments, performed within the HOPE (Hydrogen fuel cells solutions in shipping in relation to other low carbon options – a Nordic perspective) project, shows that it is technically feasible to build and operate such a ship with existing technology for the studied route between these two Nordic countries. Also, the costs of such a concept are assessed and compared to other fuel options including: battery-electric propulsion, electro-ammonia, electro-methanol, biomass-based methane, or fossil liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as conventional fossil marine gas oil (MGO).The overall result from the comparative analysis of the estimated costs is that the hydrogen fuel cell ship, when assuming current or near future costs for the technology and the hydrogen, is estimated to be some 25 percent more expensive than a conventional fossil fuelled (MGO) RoPax ship (when including costs for emissions in the EU emission trading scheme). However, the cost developments are uncertain. In the case that fuel cell prices, and hydrogen prices, are decreasing, and todays cost levels of emission allowances in the EU emission trading scheme (ETS) increase, the hydrogen fuel cell ship could possibly be operated at lower total costs compared to the MGO fuelled ship.A cost benefit analysis was also performed, comparing costs linked to the technical implementation of hydrogen fuel cell solutions in shipping (with a private and social perspective) to benefits in terms of reduced external costs linked to lower emissions and potential subsides. The cost benefit assessment also confirms that the investment from a private perspective is not cost effective and that additional subsidies may be needed for investments in fuel cell hydrogen technology to take place. The cost effectiveness from a social perspective is strongly dependent on values of highly uncertain parameters.The impacts of emissions of hydrogen as fuel in a Nordic context were assessed for deployment scenarios for hydrogen and fuel cell solutions in Nordic shipping. There is a considerable potential for emission reductions both in terms of CO2, nitrogen oxides (NOX), sulphur dioxide (SO2) and particulate matter (PM) linked to the implementation of hydrogen and fuel cells in Nordic shipping, particularly in the RoPax segment, representing 30% of total CO2 emissions in 2018. Considering the relatively long lifetime of vessels, investments must be made soon to enable a hydrogen powered shipping fleet in the near future. Since it is currently not economically viable with hydrogen and fuel cells vessels there is need for subsidies and investments in pilots to develop solutions and speed up the process.
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| 23. |
- Jivén, Karl, et al.
(författare)
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Consequences of speed reductions for ships - An impact study for shipping companies and Swedish business
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Mandatory speed reductions have been proposed by different parties within the International Maritime Organization (IMO) as a short time measure to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases from shipping. This study assesses what consequences it can have for Swedish shipowners and the Swedish business society that relies on maritime transportation in their supply chains. The most relevant IMO proposals for mandatory speed reductions are described in the study and from these a selected number of speed reduction proposals are analysed further. The speed that the vessels is operating at will affect the consumption of fuel per transport work and in many cases, a lower speed will also result in a reduced greenhouse gas impact per moved amount of cargo. The effects in total savings are higher for the speed reductions close to vessels design speed and will give lower savings the more the speed is reduced. The results show that the effects for a specific shipping company can be anything from minor towards an impact that makes the present business case unfavourable. The study cannot lay down that mandatory speed reductions will give all shipping companies severe negative effects, this as the effects will vary substantially, from positive to negative, depending on shipping segment, geographic market, modal competition and the design of the service. It is clear, though, that some shipping companies will be severely affected. When fuel savings from speed reduction is assessed, the relation between main engine power needed for propulsion and vessel speed reduction, Power = k*(v/v0)3 is often used; where v is the reduced speed and v0 the initial reference speed. This relation normally gives the correct correlation for smaller speed reductions but will overestimate the savings for larger speed reductions. A reason for the overestimates is that the fuel consumption in the main engines will not reach zero consumed fuel at zero speed (as the model indicates). Just the fact that the engines are running also at berth will consume fuel and, further, the engine and propulsion efficiency will decrease gradually when the system diverge from the speed for which the system is optimised for. The calculations in the case studies and interviews performed in this study indicate that some of the logistics service designs will require a totally different one in case that the speed is required to decrease. Such effects can be that the turnaround time is not efficient for the number of trips per day, or weekly service that the service is designed for. For other cases, the speed is already at such a low level, compared to the average for the vessel size and segment, that even relatively large speed reduction requirements will not require further reductions and hence not affect the operations at all. Other setups will instead lose competitiveness in comparison with competing road transport with an expected effect on modal shift towards road transport. The consumption and the related greenhouse gas emissions per transported amount of cargo seem for most of the analysed cases be possible to lower with reduced speed for the speed limitations under study. However, the cost per moved amount of cargo seems to be optimised at present speed and tends to increase in case of further speed reductions. This has been assessed with simplified economical calculations for a tanker and a RoRo vessel case, respectively. The interviews conducted among shipping companies give similar results as in the case study assessment: mandatory speed reductions will impose significant economical and logistical implications on ship-owners and their customers, especially in liner shipping. An often-discussed issue is the possible effects of more vessels needed to be built when speed is lowered. An assessment performed for a Panamax tanker transport setup in a life cycle perspective indicates that the increased need for extra tonnage, when speed is lowered, will give a marginal effect on total greenhouse gases per transport work performed. This as the operational emissions connected to the consumption of fuel oil totally dominates the impact compared to building, maintaining and scrapping a vessel.
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| 24. |
- Malmgren, Elin, 1992, et al.
(författare)
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The environmental performance of a fossil-free ship propulsion system with onboard carbon capture – a life cycle assessment of the HyMethShip concept
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sustainable Energy & Fuels. - : Royal Society of Chemistry (RSC). - 2398-4902. ; 5:10, s. 2753-2770
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The climate impact caused by the shipping industry has increased over the past decades despite attempts toimprove the energy efficiency of vessels and lower induced emissions. A tool in reducing climate and otherenvironmental impacts is new low emissions propulsion technologies. These new technologies need toreduce harmful emissions not only in the tailpipe but also over the entire life cycle. This study uses lifecycle assessment to investigate the life cycle environmental impact of a propulsion concept currentlyunder development: the HyMethShip concept. The HyMethShip concept combines electro-methanolenergy storage, an onboard pre-combustion carbon capture system, and a dual fuel internal combustionengine. The concept aims for an almost closed CO2 loop by installing CO2 capture onboard.The CO2 isunloaded in port and converted into electro-methanol which is used to fuel the ship again. This is madepossible by a pre-combustion process converting electro-methanol to hydrogen and CO2. Theassessment is conducted from well-to-propeller and focuses on ship operation in the North Sea in 2030.The results indicate that this technology could be an alternative to reduce the climate impact fromshipping.The results show a lower impact on acidification, climate change, marine eutrophication,particulate matter, photochemical ozone formation, and terrestrial eutrophication compared to internalcombustion engines run on either marine gas oil (0.1% sulphur content), biogenic methanol, fossilmethanol, or electro-methanol. Electricity with low climate and environmental impact is likely requiredto achieve this, and low NOx emissions from combustion processes need to be maintained. A potentialtrade-off is higher toxicity impacts from the HyMethShip concept compared to most other options, dueto metal needs in wind power plants.
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| 25. |
- Mellin, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Including maritime transport in the EU Emission Trading System – addressing design and impacts
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The aim of this project is to assess the overall design and consequences of including maritime transports in the EU emission trading system. The included aspects are geographical scope, allocation of allowances, time frame of implementation, as well as impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, economic impacts for the maritime sector as well as on early movers and modal split.
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| 26. |
- Mellin, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Including maritime transport in the EU Emission Trading System – addressing design and impacts
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The aim of the project is to assess the overall design and consequences of including maritime transports in the EU ETS. An inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS would likely be built upon the data and scope of the current monitoring, reporting and verification system, which is covering the legs of a ship’s route before and after a port call to one of EEA’s states. The CO2 emissions captured by MRV was 141 Mtonnes in 2018, estimated to grow to approximately 178 Mtonnes by 2026 if no abatement measures are taken. Alternatively, only including emissions from intra-EEA shipping would limit the emission scope, estimated to reach approximately 75 Mtonnes in 2026. The costs for the shipping sector will be determined mainly by 1) the price of allowances and 2) if allowances are given for free or if they are auctioned. Based on our assumptions of 5 to 100 % of allowance auctioned, and a price of 25-70 EUR/tonne CO2 gives an estimated additional cost to the included shipping of 0.2 – 12.5 billion EUR. To set these cost increases into a context, it generates a price increase of between 0.6% and 33% per tonne marine gas oil.
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| 27. |
- Merelli, Luca, et al.
(författare)
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Emissioner från vägtrafikfordon med HVO
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Denna rapport omfattar en genomgång av aktuell litteratur (från åren2016–2020) med data kring hur inblandning i diesel eller ren drift med Hydrerad Vegetabilisk Olja (HVO) påverkar emissioner av kväveoxider (NOx), kolväten (HC), och partiklar (partikelmassa -PM och partikelantal - PN). I rapporten analyseras även hur emissionsreningsteknik (ATS) påverkar skillnaden i emissioner mellan bränslena.På tunga fordon som inte är utrustade med moderna efterbehandlingssystem kan användning av HVO vara fördelaktigt (PN och PM samt HC kunde minskas upp till 55%, 73% respektive 73%). Eftersom diesel kan ersättas av HVO utan speciell motoranpassning kan bränslebyte vara ett alternativ för äldre fordon tills de ersätts av nyare och renare modeller.Däremot när lastbilarna använder ATS för att rena partikelutsläpp,som t.ex. dieselpartikelfilter (DPF), verkar PN-utsläpp inte skilja sig åt när diesel och HVO jämförs.Resultaten från olika studier visar att HVOs påverkan på NOx-emissionerna från både tunga och lätta fordon fortfarande är oklar och datan pekar åt olika håll. Bland de analyserade studierna kunde inget tydligt mönster observeras. HVO-användning leder till en ökning av NOx-emissionerna med 13% jämfört med traditionell diesel i bussar utrustade med SCR. Däremot observerades inga skillnader i NOx-emissioner för en tung lastbil med avgasåtercirkulation (EGR) som testades med HVO och vanlig diesel. Även för tunga fordon utan ATS är situationen otydlig: en 20% minskning av NOx-emissioner observerades i en arbetsmaskin utan ATS, men även både små ökningar och små minskningar rapporteras i en studie som använde olika inblandningar av HVO i en tung lastbil utan ATS.HVO-användning verkar inte påverka NOx-emissioner för moderna bilar som monterar ATS (EGR, SCR och LNT), och i de fall ATS saknas verkar NOx-minskningar vara enbart marginella (upp till 4%). När det gäller övrig utsläppsprestanda för lätta fordon utan ATS verkar HC kunna minskas upp till 64% med HVO-användning, medan PM kunde minskas med upp till 80%. Efterbehandlingssystemet och motoranpassningar verkar vara de två viktigaste påverkande faktorer för HVOs NOx-prestanda, båda för tunga och för lätta fordon. Det är därför viktigt att bedöma potentialen att minska NOx-emissionerna med HVO utifrån den svenska fordonsparkens åldersfördelning.
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| 28. |
- Moldanova, Jana, et al.
(författare)
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The impact of ship emissions on air quality and human health in the Gothenburg area – Part II: Scenarios for 2040
- 2020
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 20:10, s. 667-10686
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Shipping is an important source of air pollutants, from the global to the local scale. Ships emit substantial amounts of sulfur dioxides, nitrogen dioxides, and particulate matter in the vicinity of coasts, threatening the health of the coastal population, especially in harbour cities. Reductions in emissions due to shipping have been targeted by several regulations. Nevertheless, effects of these regulations come into force with temporal delays, global ship traffic is expected to grow in the future, and other land-based anthropogenic emissions might decrease. Thus, it is necessary to investigate combined impacts to identify the impact of shipping activities on air quality, population exposure, and health effects in the future. We investigated the future effect of shipping emissions on air quality and related health effects considering different scenarios of the development of shipping under current regional trends of economic growth and already decided regulations in the Gothenburg urban area in 2040. Additionally, we investigated the impact of a large-scale implementation of shore electricity in the Port of Gothenburg. For this purpose, we established a one-way nested chemistry transport modelling (CTM) system from the global to the urban scale, to calculate pollutant concentrations, population-weighted concentrations, and health effects related to NO2, PM2.5, and O3. The simulated concentrations of NO2 and PM2.5 in future scenarios for the year 2040 are in general very low with up to 4 ppb for NO2 and up to 3.5 µg m−3 PM2.5 in the urban areas which are not close to the port area. From 2012 the simulated overall exposure to PM2.5 decreased by approximately 30 % in simulated future scenarios; for NO2 the decrease was over 60 %. The simulated concentrations of O3 increased from the year 2012 to 2040 by about 20 %. In general, the contributions of local shipping emissions in 2040 focus on the harbour area but to some extent also influence the rest of the city domain. The simulated impact of onshore electricity implementation for shipping in 2040 shows reductions for NO2 in the port of up to 30 %, while increasing O3 of up to 3 %. Implementation of onshore electricity for ships at berth leads to additional local reduction potentials of up to 3 % for PM2.5 and 12 % for SO2 in the port area. All future scenarios show substantial decreases in population-weighted exposure and health-effect impacts.
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| 29. |
- Winnes, Hulda, et al.
(författare)
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Effects of Marine Exhaust Gas Scrubbers on Gas and Particle Emissions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. - : MDPI AG. - 2077-1312. ; 8, s. 299-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is an increase in installations of exhaust gas scrubbers on ships following international regulations on sulphur content in marine fuel from 2020. We have conducted emission measurements on a four-stroke marine engine using low sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) at different steady state engine loads. For the HFO the exhaust was probed upstream and downstream of an exhaust gas scrubber. While sulphur dioxide was removed with high efficiency in the scrubber, the measurements of particle emissions indicate lower emissions at the use of LSFO than downstream of the scrubber. The scrubber removes between 32% and 43% of the particle mass from the exhaust at the HFO tests upstream and downstream of the scrubber, but levels equivalent to those in LSFO exhaust are not reached. Decreases in the emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH-16) and particulate matter as black carbon, organic carbon and elemental carbon, over the scrubber were observed for a majority of the trials, although emissions at LSFO use were consistently lower at comparable engine power.
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| 30. |
- Zetterberg, Lars, et al.
(författare)
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Shipping in the EU ETS - Policy brief
- 2021
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This policy brief identifies and discusses key design features for including shipping in the EU ETS and assesses modal split impacts and economic implications. The ambition has not been to provide recommendations but rather to provide an overview and brief assessment of the options that has been part of the discussion pending the final legislative proposal, including: Covered ship categories. If shipping is included in the EU ETS the system will most likely cover the same ship categories as the shipping MRV (monitoring, reporting and verification) regulation, i.e., Ships >5000 gross tonnage. This would mean that 55% of all ships calling into EEA (European Economic Area) ports (together responsible for more than 90% of the CO2 emission from shipping) would be covered by the scheme. Geographical coverage. We have identified three main options: 1) EU internal routes; 2) all incoming and outgoing routes from EU/EEA ports; and 3) semi-full coverage meaning EU internal routes plus 50% of the routes to international ports. Only targeting internal-EU shipping would significantly reduce the overall shipping emissions covered but could be an easier political sell. The shipping industry has raised concerns that a ‘global’ scope may lead to perverse incentives, e.g. ships from international ports calling at a port just outside the EU before sailing to an EU port. However, recent estimates (Transport & Environment, 2020b) suggest that the added cost associated with port stops for the purpose of evading CO2 prizing rarely makes economic sense. Included Greenhouse gases. The system will initially most likely only cover carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from shipping. Regulated entity. The ship owner is an obvious choice since they have the power to reduce emissions, by technical choices such as vessel form, power trains etc. However, for some categories of shipping it is common that the operators lease the ships. In these cases, operators may be a better choice as the regulated entity since they have power to reduce emissions by efficient routing, efficient loading and logistics. Choosing the fuel supplier will come with a high risk that fueling will occur outside the EU. Transport buyers could be the regulated entity since they are responsible for transporting the cargo and can choose other transport modes (substitution). However, it would be more administratively burdensome. Allocation of allowances. Auctioning is the main method for allocating allowances in the EU ETS. Auctioning is consistent with the polluter pays principle, transparent and creates high incentives for reducing emissions. If shipping is included in the EU ETS with semi-full geographical coverage, allowance auctioning and an allowance price of 50 EUR per ton, we estimate the compliance cost to be approximately 100 EUR per ton fuel used. This can be compared to the price of fuel which is currently at 480 EUR/ton and has varied between 200 and 500 the last 12 months. If we assume that fuel costs account for one third of total transport costs, the compliance cost for shipping in the EU ETS will be less than 7% of the total transport related costs. If instead 85% of allowances are allocated for free by benchmarking under a semi-full geographical scope, assuming an allowance price of 50 EUR per ton, we estimate the compliance cost to be 15 EUR per ton fuel used (on average for the whole sector) or approximately 1% the total transport related costs. Transport & Environment (2020b) has also investigated compliance costs, applying auctioning under a semi-full scope ETS design. They conclude that CO2 costs would add only a very small 4 amount to the overall transport costs. For transporting a standard container (TEU) from Spain to Singapore, the CO2 costs would represent less than 1% of the overall transport costs. Modal shift. Senders of goods consider transport costs to be one of the most important factors when choosing transport modes. This suggests that inclusion of shipping in the EU ETS could lead to modal shifts when there are other transport modes available. In the EU, RoRo and RoPax mostly operates on routes where there is a land-based transport option and largely utilizing road based load units, such as trucks and trailers, which makes this the most exposed segment to a potential modal shift. The extent of any modal shift will largely depend on the characteristics and competition for each route, although the currently estimated cost of EU ETS is in itself not likely to cause any major modal shift. The container feeder segment is also subject to a direct modal competition with road and rail, although to a lesser extent due to more relaxed transport time requirements and the dimensions of containers which are adapted to sea transport and are less efficiently transported by road. However, port rail shuttles could potentially compete with feeder traffic from continental Europe. We expect that bulk shipping will not be particularly impacted by the introduction of EU ETS, since typical bulk freight are often heavy weight and lower value (per ton) and cannot be efficiently transported by road. Rail has a better chance at competing in this segment, although the modal shift is also expected to be low, one reason being that the market already absorbs large fluctuations in bulk transport costs. Although EU ETS is not likely to be a major cost item for shipping, it obviously adds to total costs and might in the long run incur changes in trade patterns and localization of industry and terminals.
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