| 1. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-effective choices of marine fuels under stringent carbon dioxide targets
- 2013
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Ingår i: Proceedings of 3rd International conference on technologies, operations, logistics and modelling in Low Carbon Shipping, University College London..
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In order to investigate cost-effective choices of future marine fuels in a carbon constrained world, the linear optimisation model of the global energy system, GET-RC 6.1, has been modified to GET-RC 6.2, including a more detailed representation of the shipping sector. In this study the GET-RC 6.2 model was used to assess what fuel/fuels and propulsion technology options for shipping are cost-effective to switch to when achieving global stabilisation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 400 ppm. The aim is to investigate (i) when is it cost-effective to start to phase out the oil from the shipping sector and what determines the speed of the phase out, (ii) under what circumstances are LNG or methanol cost-effective replacers and (iii) the role of bioenergy as a marine fuel. In our base analysis we analyse results from assuming that CCS will be large-scale available in future as well as if it will not. In the sensitivity analysis different parameters have been varied in order to investigate which impact for example different supply of primary energy sources and different costs for different transportation technologies will have on the choice of fuels in the shipping sector. Three main conclusions are presented (i) it seems to be cost-effective to start to phase out the oil from the shipping sector nearest decades, (ii) natural gas based fuels, i.e. fossil methanol and LNG are the two most probable replacers, of which methanol has been shown to dominate in the case with CCS (methanol or LNG depends on the availability of natural gas, on the methane slip and on infrastructure costs) and (iii) limited supply and competition for bioenergy among other end use sectors makes the contribution of bioenergy small, in the shipping sector.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
-
Utilising excess power: the case of electrofuels for transport
- 2014
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Ingår i: Systems Perspectives on Renewable Power 2014. - 9789198097405 ; , s. 128-137
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- If the production of electricity at a given moment in time is higher than demandwe may talk about excess electricity.1 It is possible to store excess electricity andstorage solutions might be essential for achieving very high renewable energyshares in the energy system. The most common purpose for storing electricity isof course to convert the stored energy back to electricity when needed. Currentlythere are not many mature alternatives for seasonal energy storage. Pumpedhydro, hydrogen and compressed air are facing challenges with geographicaldistribution and ecological footprint, technical limitations or low density.2 Anotheroption is to convert electricity into an energy carrier that can be used for otherpurposes, and not just as a medium for electricity storage. One possibility is to useperiods of excess electricity for the production of carbon-based synthetic fuels,so called electrofuels,3 that can be used for various purposes, e.g. for heating,as a transportation fuel or in the chemical industry for the production of plastics,textiles, medicine and fertilizers. One challenge, common to all energy storage technologies, is to be economicallyviable in spite of the fact that excess, or low priced, electricity will likely be availableonly a fraction of the time. This chapter aims to explore the challenges andopportunities of using electrofuels to utilise excess electricity. Production processesare described and costs are estimated to underpin a discussion on what isrequired to make electrofuels competitive with gasoline.
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| 4. |
- Taljegård, Maria, 1988, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-Effective Choices of Marine Fuels in a Carbon-Constrained World: Results from a Global Energy Model
- 2014
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Ingår i: Environmental Science & Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 48:21, s. 12986-12993
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The regionalized Global Energy Transition model has been modified to include a more detailed shipping sector in order to assess what marine fuels and propulsion technologies might be cost-effective by 2050 when achieving an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 400 or 500 ppm by the year 2100. The robustness of the results was examined in a Monte Carlo analysis, varying uncertain parameters and technology options, including the amount of primary energy resources, the availability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, and costs of different technologies and fuels. The four main findings are (i) it is cost-effective to start the phase out of fuel oil from the shipping sector in the next decade; (ii) natural gas-based fuels (liquefied natural gas and methanol) are the most probable substitutes during the study period; (iii) availability of CCS, the CO2 target, the liquefied natural gas tank cost and potential oil resources affect marine fuel choices significantly; and (iv) biofuels rarely play a major role in the shipping sector, due to limited supply and competition for bioenergy from other energy sectors.
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| 5. |
- Alvfors, Per, et al.
(författare)
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Research and development challenges for Swedish biofuel actors – three illustrative examples
- 2010
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Currently biofuels have strong political support, both in the EU and Sweden. The EU has, for example, set a target for the use of renewable fuels in the transportation sector stating that all EU member states should use 10% renewable fuels for transport by 2020. Fulfilling this ambition will lead to an enormous market for biofuels during the coming decade. To avoid increasing production of biofuels based on agriculture crops that require considerable use of arable area, focus is now to move towards more advanced second generation (2G) biofuels that can be produced from biomass feedstocks associated with a more efficient land use.Climate benefits and greenhouse gas (GHG) balances are aspects often discussed in conjunction with sustainability and biofuels. The total GHG emissions associated with production and usage of biofuels depend on the entire fuel production chain, mainly the agriculture or forestry feedstock systems and the manufacturing process. To compare different biofuel production pathways it is essential to conduct an environmental assessment using the well-to-tank (WTT) analysis methodology. In Sweden the conditions for biomass production are favourable and we have promising second generation biofuels technologies that are currently in the demonstration phase. In this study we have chosen to focus on cellulose based ethanol, methane from gasification of solid wood as well as DME from gasification of black liquor, with the purpose of identifying research and development potentials that may result in improvements in the WTT emission values. The main objective of this study is thus to identify research and development challenges for Swedish biofuel actors based on literature studies as well as discussions with the the researchers themselves. We have also discussed improvement potentials for the agriculture and forestry part of the WTT chain. The aim of this study is to, in the context of WTT analyses, (i) increase knowledge about the complexity of biofuel production, (ii) identify and discuss improvement potentials, regarding energy efficiency and GHG emissions, for three biofuel production cases, as well as (iii) identify and discuss improvement potentials regarding biomass supply, including agriculture/forestry. The scope of the study is limited to discussing the technologies, system aspects and climate impacts associated with the production stage. Aspects such as the influence on biodiversity and other environmental and social parameters fall beyond the scope of this study. We find that improvement potentials for emissions reductions within the agriculture/forestry part of the WTT chain include changing the use of diesel to low-CO2-emitting fuels, changing to more fuel-efficient tractors, more efficient cultivation and manufacture of fertilizers (commercial nitrogen fertilizer can be produced in plants which have nitrous oxide gas cleaning) as well as improved fertilization strategies (more precise nitrogen application during the cropping season). Furthermore, the cultivation of annual feedstock crops could be avoided on land rich in carbon, such as peat soils and new agriculture systems could be introduced that lower the demand for ploughing and harrowing. Other options for improving the WTT emission values includes introducing new types of crops, such as wheat with higher content of starch or willow with a higher content of cellulose. From the case study on lignocellulosic ethanol we find that 2G ethanol, with co-production of biogas, electricity, heat and/or wood pellet, has a promising role to play in the development of sustainable biofuel production systems. Depending on available raw materials, heat sinks, demand for biogas as vehicle fuel and existing 1G ethanol plants suitable for integration, 2G ethanol production systems may be designed differently to optimize the economic conditions and maximize profitability. However, the complexity connected to the development of the most optimal production systems require improved knowledge and involvement of several actors from different competence areas, such as chemical and biochemical engineering, process design and integration and energy and environmental systems analysis, which may be a potential barrier. Three important results from the lignocellulosic ethanol study are: (i) the production systems could be far more complex and intelligently designed than previous studies show, (ii) the potential improvements consist of a large number of combinations of process integration options wich partly depends on specific local conditions, (iii) the environmental performance of individual systems may vary significantly due to systems design and local conditons.From the case study on gasification of solid biomass for the production of biomethane we find that one of the main advantages of this technology is its high efficiency in respect to converting biomass into fuels for transport. For future research we see a need for improvements within the gas up-grading section, including gas cleaning and gas conditioning, to obtain a more efficient process. A major challenge is to remove the tar before the methanation reaction. Three important results from the biomethane study are: (i) it is important not to crack the methane already produced in the syngas, which indicates a need for improved catalysts for selective tar cracking, (ii) there is a need for new gas separation techniques to facilitate the use of air oxidation agent instead of oxygen in the gasifier, and (iii) there is a need for testing the integrated process under realistic conditions, both at atmospheric and pressurized conditions. From the case study on black liquor gasification for the production of DME we find that the process has many advantages compared to other biofuel production options, such as the fact that black liquor is already partially processed and exists in a pumpable, liquid form, and that the process is pressurised and tightly integrated with the pulp mill, which enhances fuel production efficiency. However, to achieve commercial status, some challenges still remain, such as demonstrating that materials and plant equipment meet the high availability required when scaling up to industrial size in the pulp mill, and also proving that the plant can operate according to calculated heat and material balances. Three important results from the DME study are: (i) that modern chemical pulp mills, having a potential surplus of energy, could become important suppliers of renewable fuels for transport, (ii) there is a need to demonstrate that renewable DME/methanol will be proven to function in large scale, and (iii) there is still potential for technology improvements and enhanced energy integration. Although quantitative improvement potentials are given in the three biofuel production cases, it is not obvious how these potentials would affect WTT values, since the biofuel production processes are complex and changing one parameter impacts other parameters. The improvement potentials are therefore discussed qualitatively. From the entire study we have come to agree on the following common conclusions: (i) research and development in Sweden within the three studied 2G biofuel production technologies is extensive, (ii) in general, the processes, within the three cases, work well at pilot and demonstration scale and are now in a phase to be proven in large scale, (iii) there is still room for improvement although some processes have been known for decades, (iv) the biofuel production processes are complex and site specific and process improvements need to be seen and judged from a broad systems perspective (both within the production plant as well as in the entire well-to-tank perspective), and (v) the three studied biofuel production systems are complementary technologies. Futher, the process of conducting this study is worth mentioning as a result itself, i.e. that many different actors within the field have proven their ability and willingness to contribute to a common report, and that the cooperation climate was very positive and bodes well for possible future collaboration within the framework of the f3 center. Finally, judging from the political ambitions it is clear that the demand for renewable fuels will significantly increase during the coming decade. This will most likely result in opportunities for a range of biofuel options. The studied biofuel options all represent 2G biofuels and they can all be part of the solution to meet the increased renewable fuel demand.
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| 6. |
- Börjesson, Martin, 1980, et al.
(författare)
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Transport biofuel futures in energy economy modeling: a review.
- 2013
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The high oil dependence and the growth of energy use in the transport sector have increased interest in alternative fuels as a measure to mitigate climate change and improve energy security. More ambitious energy and environmental targets and larger use of alternative energy in the transport sector increase system effects over sector boundaries, and while the stationary energy sector (e.g., electricity and heat generation) and the transport sector earlier to large degree could be considered as separate systems with limited interaction, integrated analysis approaches now grow in importance. In recent years, the scientific literature has presented an increasing number of energy-economic systems analysis modeling studies treating the transport sector as an integrated part of the energy system and/or economy. Many of these studies provide important insights regarding transport biofuels. The work summarizes and analyzes input data and transport biofuel-related results of 29 peer reviewed scientific journal articles presenting studies based on different energy-economic models. About half of the studies apply a global perspective and about half a regional or national perspective. Examples of models and model frameworks that are used in the studies included in the review are PRIMES, MARKAL, TIMES, AIM/Enduse, POLES, GCAM, GET and REDGEM70. The studies apply medium-term to long-term perspectives, with time horizons in most cases ending between 2040 and 2100. Most of the studies show low to intermediate market shares, with levels below 40% at the end of the studied time horizons for climate policy scenarios. Biofuels are to a higher degree seen in medium-term than in long-term model results. In the latter case, many of the models instead favor hydrogen or electricity-based transport options as competition for limited amounts of biomass increases with more stringent emission targets. Besides transport biofuels, energy efficient vehicle technologies, such as plug-in hybrids and, in the longer term, fuel cell vehicles, are an essential part in many of the model scenarios meeting future stringent climate targets.
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| 7. |
- Ehnberg, Jimmy, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Grid and storage
- 2014
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Ingår i: Systems Perspectives on Renewable Power 2014. - 9789198097405 ; , s. 46-59
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 8. |
- Ehnberg, Jimmy, 1976, et al.
(författare)
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Nät och elenergilager
- 2014
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Ingår i: Perspektiv på förnybar el 2014. - 9789198097436 ; , s. 14-15
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 9. |
- Girod, Bastien, et al.
(författare)
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Climate impact of transportation: A model comparison
- 2013
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Ingår i: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-1480 .- 0165-0009. ; 118:3-4, s. 595-608
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Transportation contributes to a significant and rising share of global energy use and GHG emissions. Therefore modeling future travel demand, its fuel use, and resulting CO2 emission is highly relevant for climate change mitigation. In this study we compare the baseline projections for global service demand (passenger-kilometers, ton-kilometers), fuel use, and CO2 emissions of five different global transport models using harmonized input assumptions on income and population. For four models we also evaluate the impact of a carbon tax. All models project a steep increase in service demand over the century. Technology change is important for limiting energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the study also shows that in order to stabilise or even decrease emissions radical changes would be required. While all models project liquidfossil fuels dominating up to 2050, they differ regarding the use of alternative fuels (natural gas, hydrogen, biofuels, and electricity), because of different fuel price projections. The carbon tax of 200 USD/tCO2 in 2050 stabilizes or reverses global emission growth in all models. Besides common findings many differences in the model assumptions and projections indicate room for further understanding long-term trends and uncertainty in future transport systems.
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| 10. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Cost-effective vehicle and fuel technology choices in a carbon constrained world: insights from global energy systems modelling
- 2010
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Ingår i: Electric and Hybrid Vehicles: Power Sources, Models, Sustainability, Infrastructure and the Market. Editor: Gianfranco Pistoia, Elsevier. ISBN: 798-0-444-53565-8. ; , s. 91-110
-
Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- There is no abstract to this Elsevier book chapter. Here is instead our Discussion/Conclusion chapter: The goal of this work was to investigate the factors influencing the cost-effective vehicle and fuel technology choices in a carbon constrained world. We approached this goal by further developing an existing global energy systems model with the most important addition being a more detailed description of light-duty vehicle technologies (GET RC 6.1). The model is not intended to provide a forecast of the future, but it does provide insight into the system behavior. We have shown how CCS and CSP, technological options that have the potential to significantly reduce CO2 emissions associated with electricity and heat generation, may affect cost-effective fuel and vehicle technologies for transport. We find that the availability of CCS and CSP have substantial impacts on the fuel and technology options for passenger vehicles in meeting global CO2 emission target of 450 ppm at lowest system cost. Four key findings emerge.First, the introduction of CCS increases, in general, the use of coal (in the energy system) and ICEV (for transport). By providing relatively low-cost approaches to reducing CO2 emissions associated with electricity and heat generation, CCS reduces the “CO2 task” for the transportation sector, extends the time span of conventional petroleum-fueled ICEVs, and enables the use of liquid biofuels as well as GTL/CTL for transportation. Second, the introduction of CSP reduces the relative cost of electricity in relation to hydrogen and tends to increase the use of electricity for transport (at the expense of hydrogen).Third, the combined introduction of both CCS and CSP reduces the cost-effectiveness of shifting away from petroleum and ICEVs for a prolonged period of time (e.g., compare the results in Figure X.2D with those in Figure X.2A). Advanced energy technologies (CCS and CSP) reduce the cost of carbon mitigation (in the model) and therefore the incentives to shift to more advanced vehicle technologies. Fourth, the cost estimates for future vehicle technologies are very uncertain (for the time span considered) and therefore it is too early to express firm opinions about the future cost-effectiveness or optimality of different fuel and powertrain combinations. Sensitivity analyses in which these parameters were varied over reasonable ranges result in large differences in the cost-effective fuel and vehicle technology solutions. For instance, for low battery costs ($150/kWh) electrified powertrains dominate and for higher battery costs ($450/kWh) hydrogen-fueled vehicles dominate, regardless of CCS and CSP availability. Thus, our results summarized above should not be interpreted to mean that the electricity production options alone will have a decisive impact on the cost-effective fuel and vehicle options chosen.General results on cost-effective primary energy choices include observations that the use of coal increases substantially when CCS is available and that the use of solar energy (mainly solar-based hydrogen) increases when neither CCS nor CSP are available.Our findings have several policy and research implications. From a policy perspective, the findings highlight the need to recognize, and account for, the interaction between sectors (e.g., that illustrated by the impact of CCS availability in the present work) in policy development. From a research perspective, the findings illustrate the importance of pursuing the research and development of multiple fuel and vehicle technology pathways to achieve the desired result of affordable and sustainable personal mobility.
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| 11. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
-
Description of the global energy systems model GET-RC 6.1
- 2013
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- To provide a tool for decision makers to understand meeting global energy demand with global energy supply at a minimum cost and in a sustainable way, we have developed a global energy model (GET-RC 6.1) that includes a detailed description of passenger vehicle technology options. The model can be used to better understand the fuel and vehicle technology choices available for passenger vehicles and how these fit into the larger global energy system, where different energy sectors compete for the same limited primary energy sources. The original linear programming Global Energy Transition (GET) model is designed to meet exogenously given energy demand levels, subject to a CO2 constraint, at the lowest global energy system cost (all costs are in US$). The GET model is being developed and extended to address research questions related to the sustainable development of the global energy system. Several different versions of the GET model are available. The aim of this report is to describe the version used in collaboration between staff at Ford Motor Company and Chalmers University of Technology during the period 2008-2013. The model version used, GET-RC 6.1, was developed to address research questions related to light duty passenger vehicles, where R stands for regionalized and C for cars. The report contains a description of the settings that are defined in the model (i.e., the sets, parameters and variables), the equations used in the model, suggestion for how to implement the model step by step, and the mathematical description of the model.
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| 12. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
-
Möjligheter för förnybara drivmedel i Sverige till år 2030
- 2010
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Transportsektorns energianvändning domineras i dagsläget helt av oljebaseradedrivmedel, främst bensin och diesel. På grund av klimat- och energisäkerhetsfrågan stårdärför transportsektorn idag inför stora förändringar. Syftet med denna studie är attstudera möjligheterna för inhemskt producerade förnybara drivmedel (biodrivmedel,förnybar el och vätgas) till och med år 2030. Genom litteraturstudier och kontakter medaktörer inom området och med utgångspunkt i de framtidsvisioner för förnybaradrivmedel som finns utförs en systematisk strukturerad genomgång av utmaningar ochmöjligheter för olika drivmedelsalternativ. Målet är att kunna argumentera för vad somär realistiskt att tro om utvecklingen för den inhemska produktionen av förnybaradrivmedel till och med 2030 givet att styrmedel som stödjer dessa drivmedel finns samtatt bedöma i vilken utvecklingsfas olika förnybara drivmedel befinner sig.Resultatet från litteraturgenomgången av framtidsvisioner visar en splittrad bild avhur olika aktörer ser på framtiden för förnybara drivmedel. För 2020 identifierar vi ettspann på att 10–25% av den svenska vägsektorns energianvändning skulle kunna beståav biodrivmedel varav bidraget från andra generationen nästan är försumbart. För 2030är spannet 13–55% och bidraget från andra generationen anses osäkert. När det gällervätgas är däremot alla källor eniga om att andelen vätgasbilar i den svenska bilparken ärytterst marginellt både år 2020 och 2030. Däremot finns optimistiska visioner för EU påända upp till 16 miljoner vätgasbilar kring 2030. Visionerna kring elbilar ochladdhybrider visar på en mycket stor osäkerhet över hur snabbt fordonsflottan kankomma att elektrifieras. För 2020 visas en spridning på allt ifrån mycket få till 600 000elbilar inklusive laddhybrider i Sverige och för 2030 ser vi ett ännu vidare spann på alltifrån mycket få till 4 miljoner.Resultat från vår analys visar att spannet är ganska stort när det gäller hur stor deninhemska produktionen av förnybara drivmedel skulle kunna vara år 2020 och 2030.Spannet är ungefär 3–13 TWh/år för år 2020 och 10–22 TWh/år år 2030 och vi bedömerhela spannet som realistiskt. Beroende på hur stor energianvändning för transporter vijämför med blir det procentuella bidraget lite olika men oavsett beräkningsmetodöverstiger andelen inhemskt producerade förnybara drivmedel inte 15% år 2020respektive 25% år 2030 av vägtrafikens energianvändning.Trots att alternativa fordon (utöver elbilar) behövs i nästan alla våra scenarier om deinhemskt producerade drivmedlen ska användas inom Sverige ser vi inte bilparken somen begränsande faktor för den inhemska produktionen av förnybara drivmedel. Behoveti Europa lär dessutom vara så pass stort att det går att exportera allt eventuellt överskottav förnybara drivmedel om vi i Sverige producerar mer än den inhemskatransportsektorn kan ta emot. När det gäller introduktionen av elbilar ser vi inteladdningsinfrastrukturen som en begränsande faktor för introduktionen av elbilar i storskala. I dagsläget begränsas introduktionen mer av den höga investeringskostnaden(orsakad av batterikostnaden) vid köp av elbil.Hur stort det faktiska bidraget av förnybara drivmedel i Sverige i framtiden blirberor i stor utsträckning på priset på de förnybara drivmedlen (både inhemsktframställda och importerade) och tillhörande fordon jämfört med de fossila alternativen.Oavsett drivmedel är det viktigt med hög energieffektivitet både vad gälleranvändningen i fordonen och i drivmedelsproduktionen. En lägre energiefterfrågan itransportsektorn är en viktig faktor för att minska koldioxidutsläppen och innebärdessutom att bidraget från förnybara drivmedel procentuellt sett blir högre.
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| 13. |
- Grahn, Maria, 1963, et al.
(författare)
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Sustainable mobility: using a global energy model to inform vehicle technology choices in a decarbonized economy
- 2013
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 5:5, s. 1845-1862
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The reduction of CO2 emissions associated with vehicle use is an important element of a global transition to sustainable mobility and is a major long-term challenge for society. Vehicle and fuel technologies are part of a global energy system, and assessing the impact of the availability of clean energy technologies and advanced vehicle technologies on sustainable mobility is a complex task. The global energy transition (GET) model accounts for interactions between the different energy sectors, and we illustrate its use to inform vehicle technology choices in a decarbonizing economy. The aim of this study is to assess how uncertainties in future vehicle technology cost, as well as how developments in other energy sectors, affect cost-effective fuel and vehicle technology choices. Given the uncertainties in future costs and efficiencies for light-duty vehicle and fuel technologies, there is no clear fuel/vehicle technology winner that can be discerned at the present time. We conclude that a portfolio approach with research and development of multiple fuel and vehicle technology pathways is the best way forward to achieve the desired result of affordable and sustainable personal mobility. The practical ramifications of this analysis are illustrated in the portfolio approach to providing sustainable mobility adopted by the Ford Motor Company.
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| 14. |
- Hansson, Julia, et al.
(författare)
-
Utsikt för förnybara drivmedel i Sverige
- 2013
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Syftet med denna studie är att uppdatera och utvidga författarnas analys, från 2010, av möjligheterna för förnybara drivmedel i Sverige till 2030. Rapporten innehåller en sammanställning av andra aktörers visioner för utvecklingen av förnybara drivmedel, en sammanställning av styrmedel för förnybara drivmedel, en kartläggning av befintlig och planerad produktionskapacitet för biodrivmedel i Sverige och utblick mot övriga världen, en diskussion kring Sveriges framtida importmöjligheter, en kartläggning av situationen för infrastruktur och fordon, och slutligen scenarier för utvecklingen av förnybara drivmedel i Sverige till 2030 med olika antaganden för utvecklingen av den inhemska produktionskapaciteten av biodrivmedel, mängden import och mängden el till fordon. Studiens analyser baseras på litteraturstudier, kontakter med aktörer inom området och på resultaten från egna scenarier. Scenarierna ger en bild av att det möjliga bidraget från förnybara drivmedel, till den svenska vägtransportsektorn, kan ligga inom intervallet 7–16 TWh år 2020 och 13–30 TWh år 2030 (varav 5–13 TWh år 2020 och 13–26 TWh år 2030 utgör det möjliga inhemska bidraget dvs. utan import).
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Höglund, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Biofuels and land use in Sweden: an overview of land-use change effects
- 2013
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Supported by policies, biofuel production has been continuously increasing worldwide during recent years. However, concerns have been raised that biofuels, often advocated as the future substitute for greenhouse gas (GHG) intensive fossil fuels, may cause negative effects on the climate and the environment. When assessing GHG emissions from biofuels, the production phase of the biofuel crop is essential since this is the phase in which most of the GHG emissions occur during the life cycle of the fuel, often linked to land use and land management. Changes in land use can result from a wide range of anthropogenic activities including agriculture and forestry management, livestock and biofuel production. The report first presents a review of the literature in the different scientific areas related to land use change (LUC) and biofuel production. Knowledge gaps related to LUC is compiled and, a synthesis is developed highlighting major challenges and key findings. Main findings are that (i) deforestation, forest management, and climate change deforestation is a major contributor to GHG emissions and can contribute to soil erosion and carbon stock changes, (ii) albedo changes and the timing of emissions need to be better understood, (iii) to avoid degradation of biodiversity great care must be taken to develop sustainable biofuel production (iv) nutrient leakage and removal of forest residues can influence the biomass growth potential (v) to avoid fertility losses in agricultural soils during biofuel production, crops with low fertilizer needs, high nutrient use efficiency and high yields should be given priority (vi) indirect effects on land use are extremely complex to quantify without great uncertainty (vii) biofuels contribution to rising food prices and poverty even more challenging (viii) biofuel production can create jobs but also interfere with traditional ways of life and recreational values, (ix) to avoid negative effects, biofuel production should be developed in collaboration with the stakeholders involved: farmers, land owners, tourists, and industry. The literature review and synthesis presented in this report shows that land use on this planet is already placing high stress on ecosystems, atmosphere, soils and human life. Because of increased biofuel production, land use change is therefore at risk of aggravating these problems. Conclusions drawn are that the LUC caused by increasing use of biofuels can be negative to various degrees but that drawbacks can be mitigated through policy measures or technology developments. Examples include the cultivation of high-yielding crops, cultivation on abandoned arable land, and effective use of by-products and waste. To explore the opportunities that exist for beneficial land use change, continued responsible and sensitive collaboration between industry, policy-makers, researchers and local communities is a prerequisite.
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| 17. |
- Johansson, Daniel, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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Multi - model analyses of the economic and energy implications for China and India in a post-Kyoto climate regime
- 2012
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper presents a modeling comparison project on how the2°C climate target could affect economic and energy systems development in China and India. The analysis uses a framework that harmonizes baseline developments and soft-links seven national and global models being either economy wide (CGE models) or energy system models. The analysis is based on a global greenhouse gas emission pathway that aims at a radiative forcing of 2.9 W/m2 in 2100 and with a policy regime based on convergence of per capita CO2 emissions with emissions trading. Economic and energy implications for China and India vary across models. Decreased energy intensity is the most important abatement approach in the CGE models, while decreased carbon intensity is most important in the energy system models. Reliance on Coal without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is significantly reduced in most models, while CCS is a central abatement technology in energy system models, as is renewable and nuclear energy. Concerning economic impacts China bears in general a higher cost than India, as China benefits less from emissions trading. Costs are also affected by changes in fossil fuel prices, currency appreciation from capital inflow from carbon trading and timing of emission reductions.
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| 18. |
- Pettersson, Karin, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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How much can biofuels reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
- 2012
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Ingår i: Systems Perspectives on Biorefineries 2012. - 9789198030013 ; , s. 72-79
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The transport sector is today totally dominated by fossil oil-based fuels, aboveall gasoline and diesel. In order to decrease the fossil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector, and the dependency on crude oil which isa scarce resource, one option is to introduce biomass derived motor fuels, here called biofuels. However, biomass is also a limited resource which makes efficient resource utilization essential. Therefore, the usage of biomass for biofuel production will have to be compared to other possible ways to use the limited biomass resource.The biomass derived transportation fuels that are available today includes, for example, ethanol from sugar or starch crops and biodiesel from esterified veg- etable oil. Biofuels based on lignocellulosic feedstock are under development. The two main production routes are gasification of solid biomass or black liquor followed by synthesis into, for example, methanol, dimethyl ether (DME), synthetic natural gas (SNG) or Fischer-Tropsch diesel (FTD), and ethanol produced from lignocellulosic biomass. Potential lignocel- lulosic feedstocks include forest residues, waste wood, black liquor and farmed wood. What feedstock will come to predominate in a country or region will very much depend on local conditions.When evaluating the greenhouse gas emission balances or overall energy efficiency of introduction of new biomass-based technologies, it is important to adopt life cycle perspective and consider the impact of all steps from feedstock to final product(s). There are a number of different approaches that can be used for this purpose, and different choices can be made for each step from feedstock to product. Thus, different studies can come to very different conclusions about, for example, the climate effect for a given product and feedstock. These issues have been heavily debated, particularly regarding evaluation of different biofuel routes. Parameters identified as responsible for introducing the largest variations and uncertainties are to a large part connected to system related assumptions, for example system boundaries, reference system, allocation methods, time frame and functional unit. The purpose of this chapter is to discuss a selection of these issues, in order to give the reader an improved understanding of the complexity of evaluating GHG emission balances for different biorefinery products, with biofuels used as an example.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
- Wallington, Timothy J, et al.
(författare)
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Low-CO2 Electricity and Hydrogen: A Help or Hindrance for Electric and Hydrogen Vehicles?
- 2010
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Ingår i: Environmental Science & Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 44:10, s. 2702-08
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The title question was addressed using an energy modelthat accounts for projected global energy use in all sectors(transportation, heat, and power) of the global economy. Global CO2 emissions were constrained to achieve stabilization at 400-550 ppm by 2100 at the lowest total system cost(equivalent to perfect CO2 cap-and-trade regime). For future scenarios where vehicle technology costs were sufficiently competitive to advantage either hydrogen or electric vehicles, increased availability of low-cost, low-CO2 electricity/hydrogen delayed (but did not prevent) the use of electric/hydrogen-powered vehicles in the model. This occurs when low-CO2 electricity/hydrogen providesmorecost-effective CO2 mitigation opportunities in the heat and power energy sectors than in transportation. Connections between the sectors leading to this counterintuitive result need consideration in policy and technology planning.
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| 21. |
- Wallington, Timothy J, et al.
(författare)
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Sustainable Mobility: Insights from a Global Energy Model
- 2013
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Ingår i: Treatise on Sustainability Science and Engineering. - Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands. - 9789400762282 ; 9789400762299, s. 338-
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- A global energy model that includes a detailed description of light-duty vehicle and fuel technologies was used to investigate cost-effective light-duty vehicle/fuel technologies in a carbon-constrained world. Total CO2 emissions were constrained to achieve stabilization at 450–550 ppm by 2100 at the lowest total system cost. Three conclusions emerge. First, there is no ‘‘silver bullet’’ vehicle or fuel technology. Given the current uncertainties in future costs/efficiencies for light-duty vehicle and fuel technologies, there is no clear fuel/vehicle technology winner that can be discerned. Second, a multi-sector perspective is needed when addressing greenhouse gas emissions. Connections between transportation and other energy sectors are likely to become important in the future. Third, alternative fuels are needed in response to the expected dwindling oil and natural gas supply potential by the end of the century, which were used almost completely in all scenarios (even for a 450 ppm CO2 target).
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