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- Hakobyan, Lilit, 1975-
(författare)
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Economic stagnation and stable growth : the persistence and survival of growth regimes under political transitions
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper analyses the survival of four different growth regimes conditional on political regime transitions that occurred during the first or prior year of the economic regime. The results suggest that in countries with no history of military dictatorship (MD), the episodes of fast-growing regimes initiated by political democratisation have an approximately 40% lower hazard of termination than the miracle growth episodes that were not started by political transitions. This finding does not hold in countries in which the consolidation of democracy is complicated by the historical role played by the army in the governing process. Additional analyses are carried out for the effect of political transitions on the duration of ongoing economic regimes. The data does not support the argument that “order” and the “rule of law” promote economic growth under more authoritarian regimes, which commonly feature authoritarian leaders during times of economic crisis. Political transitions of both directions under an economic crisis render the ongoing economic regime more durable. In contrast political transitions (of both directions) seem to be economically more efficient under the regime of stagnation.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Hakobyan, Lilit, 1975-
(författare)
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Income inequality, competitiveness of political systems and the distance to the efficient frontier of economic growth
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper investigates whether and under which conditions democracy renders economic performance more efficient. Efficiency, measured by the ratio of (mean)/ (standard deviation) of output growth, becomes an important indicator of the relative goodness of economic performance when countries face a trade-off between development scenarios with high-mean and low-volatility of output growth. This seems to be a case when economies approach the efficient frontier. However, when countries are far away from the frontier economic efficiency may be improved by simultaneously increasing the mean and decreasing the volatility of growth. This study differs from others on the topic in three basic ways: (i) asymmetric (G)ARCH models are employed to simultaneously estimate the mean and volatility of output growth conditional on the factors of interest; (ii) variations in within-country effects of democratisation on the mean, variance and efficiency of economic growth conditional on cross-country variations of income inequality are analysed; (iii) the asymmetry of deviations from the mean is investigated. The results suggest (do not suggest) that in countries with no (with) military dictatorship history democratisation moves economies towards the efficient frontier. The positive effect of democratisation on the efficiency of economic performance seems to be systematically stronger in countries with lower (higher) income inequality in the countries with (without) consolidated civil governments.
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| 4. |
- Hakobyan, Lilit, 1975-
(författare)
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Political transition, economic growth and reoccurring crisis in countries with and without experience of military dictatorship
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper analyses the experience of 83 countries from the period of 1950 - 2004 and addresses the following question: when do democratic transitions produce (good) bad economic outcomes. Following the theoretical papers of Acemoglu et al . (2004, 2008(a)), an attempt is made to control for both de jure and de facto sides of political power. In addition, the countries with and without the experience of Military Dictatorship ( MD ) are analysed separately. The results imply that concentration of economic power per se produces bad economic outcomes. Besides, the data seem to contain an indication that democratisation induces additional socially wasteful investments into de facto political power. In addition, the analyses suggest that, when the army assumes political leadership, countries with low concentration of economic power demonstrate better economic performance. In terms of Acemoglu et al. (2007), this may support the idea that the institutional environment switches from a “weak” to a “strong” one. Finally, the potential trade - off between democratisation and political stability seems to be mainly relevant to the degree of severity of reoccurring economic crises in countries with MD experience.
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