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| 2. |
- Caldara, Dario, 1982-
(författare)
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Essays on Empirical Macroeconomics
- 2011
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis consists of four essays in empirical macroeconomics. What Are the Effects of Fiscal Policy Shocks? A VAR-Based Comparative Analysis The literature using structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) to assess the effects of fiscal policy shocks strongly disagrees on the qualitative and quantitative response of key macroeconomic variables. We find that controlling for differences in specification of the reduced-form model, all identification approaches used in the literature yield similar results regarding the effects of government spending shocks, but diverging results regarding the effects of tax shocks. The Analytics of SVARs. A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers Does fiscal policy stimulate output? SVARs have been used to address this question, but no stylized facts have emerged. I show that different priors about the output elasticities of tax revenue and government expenditures implied by the identification schemes generate a large dispersion in the estimates of tax and spending multipliers. I estimate fiscal multipliers consistent with prior distributions of the elasticities computed by a variety of empirical strategies. I document that in the U.S. spending multipliers are larger than the tax multipliers. Computing DSGE Models with Recursive Preferences and Stochastic Volatility This paper compares solution methods for computing the equilibrium of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with recursive preferences and stochastic volatility. The main finding is that a third-order perturbation is competitive in terms of accuracy with Chebyshev polynomials and value function iteration, while being an order of magnitude faster to run. Business Cycle Accounting and Misspecified DSGE Models This paper investigates how insights from the literature on business cycle accounting can be used to trace out the implications of missing channels in a baseline estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model used for forecast and policy analysis.
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| 3. |
- Engström, Gustav, 1977-
(författare)
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Essays on Economic Modeling of Climate Change
- 2012
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Structural change in a two-sector model of the climate and the economy introduces issues concerning substitutability among goods in a two-sector economic growth model where emissions from fossil fuels give rise to a climate externality. Substitution is modeled using a CES-production function where the intermediate inputs differ only in their technologies and the way they are affected by the climate externality. I derive a simple formula for optimal taxes and resource allocation over time and highlight model sensitivity w.r.t the elasticity of substitution and distribution parameters.Energy Balance Climate Models and General Equilibrium Optimal Mitigation Policies develops a one-dimensional energy balance climate model with heat diffusion and anthropogenic forcing across latitudes driven by global fossil fuel use coupled to an economic growth model. Our results suggest that if the implementation of international transfers across latitudes are not possible or costly, then optimal taxes are in general spatially non-uniform and may be lower at poorer latitudes. Energy Balance Climate Models, Damage Reservoirs and the Time Profileof Climate Change Policy explores optimal mitigation policies through the lens of a latitude dependent energy balance climate model coupled to an economic growth model. We associate the movement of an endogenous polar ice cap with the idea of a damage reservoir being a finite source of climate related damages affecting the economy. The analysis shows that the introduction of damage reservoirs can generate multiple steady states and Skiba points.Assessing Sustainable Development in a DICE World investigates a method for assessing sustainable development under climate change in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE-2007 model). The analysis shows that the sustainability measure is highly sensitive to the calibration of the inter-temporal elasticity parameter and discount rate of the social welfare function.
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| 4. |
- Ge, Jinfeng, 1977-
(författare)
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Essays on Macroeconomics and Political Economy
- 2012
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis consists of three self-contained essays dealing with different aspects of macroeconomics and political Economy.The Relative Price of Investment Goods and Sectoral Contract DependenceI develop a quantitative model to explain the relationship between TFPs at the aggregate and sector levels and contracting institutions across countries. The incomplete contract enforcement induces distortions in the production process which come from the “hold up” problem between a final goods firm and its suppliers. Because investment goods sector is more contract dependent, its productivity suffers more from the distortion. In turn, countries endowed with weaker contract enforcement institutions face higher relative prices of investment goods.A Ricardian Model of the Labor Market with Directed SearchI analyze how search friction affects the allocation in a Ricardian model of the labor market. The equilibrium shows that the matching pattern is partially mixed: Some tasks are only performed by skilled workers; some are only performed by unskilled workers; the remaining tasks are performed by both skilled and unskilled workers. The mixed matching pattern implies a mismatch in equilibrium. It turns out that the reason for the mismatch has its roots in search friction. In addition, I show labor market institutions have interesting implications for the unemployment rate and mismatch.A Dynamic Analysis of the Free-rider ProblemI argue that special interest groups overcome their free-rider problem thanks to distorted government policy. As policy confers monopoly privileges on a group, it can also preserve and promote group’s organization. The key to sustaining the organization of the group is a dynamic incentive: when distorted policy generates rents for a group, each member of the group wish to make contributions not just to raise their rents today; they want to sustain their cooperation so that they will be able to influence policy in the future.
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| 5. |
- Golosov, Mikhail, et al.
(författare)
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Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium
- 2014
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Ingår i: Econometrica. - 0012-9682 .- 1468-0262. ; 82:1, s. 41-88
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We analyze a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium (DSGE) model with an externality—through climate change—from using fossil energy. Our central result is a simple formula for the marginal externality damage of emissions (or, equivalently, for the optimal carbon tax). This formula, which holds under quite plausible assumptions, reveals that the damage is proportional to current GDP, with the proportion depending only on three factors: (i) discounting, (ii) the expected damage elasticity (how many percent of the output flow is lost from an extra unit of carbon in the atmosphere), and (iii) the structure of carbon depreciation in the atmosphere. Thus, the stochastic values of future output, consumption, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration, as well as the paths of technology (whether endogenous or exogenous) and population, and so on, all disappear from the formula. We find that the optimal tax should be a bit higher than the median, or most well-known, estimates in the literature. We also formulate a parsimonious yet comprehensive and easily solved model allowing us to compute the optimal and market paths for the use of different sources of energy and the corresponding climate change. We find coal—rather than oil—to be the main threat to economic welfare, largely due to its abundance. We also find that the costs of inaction are particularly sensitive to the assumptions regarding the substitutability of different energy sources and technological progress.
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| 6. |
- Hassler, Donald M., et al.
(författare)
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Mars’ surface radiation environment measured with the Mars Science Laboratory’s Curiosity Rover
- 2014
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 343:6169
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Radiation Assessment Detector (RAD) on the Mars Science Laboratory’s Curiosity rover began making detailed measurements of the cosmic ray and energetic particle radiation environment on the surface of Mars on 7 August 2012. We report and discuss measurements of the absorbed dose and dose equivalent from galactic cosmic rays and solar energetic particles on the martian surface for ~300 days of observations during the current solar maximum. These measurements provide insight into the radiation hazards associated with a human mission to the surface of Mars and provide an anchor point with which to model the subsurface radiation environment, with implications for microbial survival times of any possible extant or past life, as well as for the preservation of potential organic biosignatures of the ancient martian environment.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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ECONOMICS AND CLIMATE CHANGE: INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT IN A MULTI-REGION WORLD
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of the European Economic Association. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1542-4766 .- 1542-4774. ; 10:5, s. 974-1000
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper develops a model that integrates the climate and the global economyan integrated assessment modelwith which different policy scenarios can be analyzed and compared. The model is a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium setup with a continuum of regions. Thus, it is a full stochastic general-equilibrium version of RICE, Nordhauss pioneering multi-region integrated assessment model. Like RICE, our model features traded fossil fuel but otherwise has no markets across regionsthere is no insurance nor any intertemporal trade across them. The extreme form of market incompleteness is not fully realistic but arguably not a bad approximation of reality. Its major advantage is that, along with a set of reasonable assumptions on preferences, technology, and nature, it allows a closed-form model solution. We use the model to assess the welfare consequences of carbon taxes that differ across as well as within oil-consuming and -producing regions. We show that, surprisingly, only taxes on oil producers can improve the climate: taxes on oil consumers have no effect at all. The calibrated model suggests large differences in views on climate policy across regions.
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| 9. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Klimatet och ekonomin
- 2013
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Ingår i: SNS analys. - 2001-9742. ; :14, s. 1-16
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 10. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Oil Monopoly and the Climate
- 2010
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Ingår i: The American Economic Review. - : The American Economic Association. - 0002-8282 .- 1944-7981. ; 100:2, s. 460-464
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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The Fossile Episode
- 2012
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Rapport (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- We build a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model with one-sided substitutability between fossil carbon and biocarbon. One shock only, the discovery of the technology to use fossil fuels, leads to a transition from an initial pre-industrial phase to three following ohases: a pure fossil carbon phase, a mixed fossil and biocarbon phase and an absorbing biocarbon phase. The increased competition for biocarbon during phase 3 and 4 leads to increasing food prices. We provide closed form expressions for this price increase. Our calibration leads to a price increase of 40% if capital and labor are allowed to move to the biocarbon sector. Otherwise, the price increase is much higher. We also use the model to analyze the consequences of restrictions on using biocarbon as fuel. We show that such restrictions can lead to a substantially slower global warming due to an endogenous slowdown of fossil fuel extraction.
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| 13. |
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| 14. |
- Li, Yinan, 1980-
(författare)
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Institutions, Political Cycles and Corruption : Essays on Dynamic Political Economy of Government
- 2012
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis consists of three essays in Political Economy:“China’s Political Business Cycle” uncovers the fact that the timing of China’s business cycle correlates to the timing of the Communist Party’s Congress and constructs a theory to explain the mechanism of the political business cycle. An empirical test of the theory derives a result consistent with the predictions of the theory.“A Theory of Dynastic Cycle” provides a politico-economic theory to explain the mechanism of the dynastic cycle, a repeating pattern in China’s theory. The core of the theory is the ruler’s trade-off between the political account and the economic account in choosing a successor.“A Politico-Economic Theory of Corruption in Non-Democracy” investigates the ruler’s incentive to have corrupt agents. The key point is that a corrupt agent has a bad reputation and is less likely to replace the incumbent ruler. The major implication is that unless there is fundamental institutional change, it is hard to eradicate corruption in non-democracy.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Schmitt, Alex, 1981-
(författare)
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Beyond Pigou: Climate Change Mitigation, Policy Making and Distortions
- 2014
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis consists of three essays.The first essay, “Optimal Carbon and Income Taxation”, analyzes carbon taxation while taking into account that taxes are set by national policy makers. I add two features, namely distortionary income taxation and lack of commitment to future policies, to a standard climate-economy model. I show that the optimal time-consistent carbon tax is in general not at the Pigouvian level, due to the presence of costs and benefits of emitting carbon that only materialize in the presence of income taxes. Quantitatively, I find a monotonic relationship between the size of this tax-interaction effect and the cost of climate change.The second essay, “Time-Consistent Unilateral Climate Policy”, studies unilateral climate change mitigation in a two-region model with distortionary income taxation and lack of commitment. I investigate how the European Union should regulate carbon emissions under the assumption that the rest of the world does not cooperate. When introducing income taxes into the model, the unilateral carbon tax rate falls by 50 percent. At the same time, the decline in economic activity leads to a considerable decrease in cumulative global emissions and thus mitigates climate change in the long run.The third essay, “Climate Change Mitigation under Political Instability”, investigates climate policy in a setting where the policy maker is subject to probabilistic political turnover. I show that an incumbent government that takes into account the possibility of losing power has an incentive to reduce emissions and invest more in clean energy relative to a corresponding myopic policy maker, independent of whether she derives more or less disutility from emitting carbon than a possible successor. Calibrating a model of the US, I find that having a strategic government results in a reduction of cumulative carbon emissions until 2100 that is equivalent to emissions being permanently 10 percent lower than in a business-as-usual scenario.
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| 17. |
- Spiro, Daniel, 1975-
(författare)
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Some Aspects of Resource and Behavioral Economics
- 2012
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis consists of four essays in resource and behavioral economics.Resource Extraction, Capital Accumulation and Time HorizonThe paper shows that relaxing the standard infinite horizon assumption can explain the patterns of exhaustible resource extraction and prices for the last century. An empirical test proposes a time horizon of roughly 28 years to be most likely. Model calibration yields an oil price which fits the falling price after WWII and suggests that the sharply increasing price after 1998 is due to scarcity.Optimal Forest Rotation under Climate Change The scenario of forests growing faster over time, due to climate change, is analyzed. It is shown numerically that ignoring future changes is highly likely to be accurate in terms of harvesting and will cause insignificant profit losses.Tragedy of the Commons versus the Love of Variety The opposing effects of overharvesting of renewable resources when property rights are missing and increased consumption variety, both due to trade, are analyzed. Trade increases welfare if the resource has strong regenerative power. If, instead, the resource regenerates slowly, then sufficient increases in the number of trade partners harms welfare and the stock may even collapse. Correcting policies may be very harsh and still improve upon laissez faire.The Distribution of Revealed Preferences under Social Pressure Stated preferences, such as declared political opinions, are studied when individuals make the trade off between being true to their real opinions and conforming to a social norm. In orthodox societies, individuals will tend to either conform fully or ignore the social norm while individuals in liberal societies will tend to compromise between the two extremes. The model sheds light on phenomena such as polarization, alienation and hypocrisy. Furthermore, it suggests that orthodoxy cannot be maintained under pluralism.
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| 18. |
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