| 1. |
- Webster, Christopher R., et al.
(författare)
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Background levels of methane in Mars' atmosphere show strong seasonal variations
- 2018
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science. - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 360:6393, s. 1093-1096
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Variable levels of methane in the martian atmosphere have eluded explanation partly because the measurements are not repeatable in time or location. We report in situ measurements at Gale crater made over a 5-year period by the Tunable Laser Spectrometer on the Curiosity rover. The background levels of methane have a mean value 0.41 ± 0.16 parts per billion by volume (ppbv) (95% confidence interval) and exhibit a strong, repeatable seasonal variation (0.24 to 0.65 ppbv). This variation is greater than that predicted from either ultraviolet degradation of impact-delivered organics on the surface or from the annual surface pressure cycle. The large seasonal variation in the background and occurrences of higher temporary spikes (~7 ppbv) are consistent with small localized sources of methane released from martian surface or subsurface reservoirs.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Blanchard, Olivier, et al.
(författare)
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Makroekonomi
- 2015
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Engström, Kerstin, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance
- 2017
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 8:3, s. 773-799
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.
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| 7. |
- Fausch, Jürg, 1982-
(författare)
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Essays on Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- 2017
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Asset pricing implications of a DSGE model with recursive preferences and nominal rigidities. I study jointly macroeconomic dynamics and asset prices implied by a production economy featuring nominal price rigidities and Epstein-Zin (1989) preferences. Using a reasonable calibration, the macroeconomic DSGE model is consistent with a number of stylized facts observed in financial markets like the equity premium, a negative real term spread, a positive nominal term spread and the predictability of stock returns, without compromising the model's ability to fit key macroeconomic variables. The interest rate smoothing in the monetary policy rule helps generate a low risk-free rate volatility which has been difficult to achieve for standard real business cycle models where monetary policy is neutral. In an application, I show that the model provides a framework for analyzing monetary policy interventions and the associated effects on asset prices and the real economy.Macroeconomic news and the stock market: Evidence from the eurozone. This paper is an empirical study of excess return behavior in the stock market in the euro area around days when important macroeconomic news about inflation, unemployment or interest rates are scheduled for announcement. I identify state dependence such that equity risk premia on announcement days are significantly higher when the interests rates are in the vicinity of the zero lower bound. Moreover, I provide evidence that for the whole sample period, the average excess returns in the eurozone are only higher on days when FOMC announcements are scheduled for release. However, this result vanishes in a low interest rate regime. Finally, I document that the European stock market does not command a premium for scheduled announcements by the European Central Bank (ECB).The impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on the German stock market. We examine the impact of ECB monetary policy surprises on German excess stock returns and the possible reasons for such a response. First, we conduct an event study to asses the impact of conventional and unconventional monetary policy on stock returns. Second, within the VAR framework of Campbell and Ammer (1993), we decompose excess stock returns into news regarding expected excess returns, future dividends and future real interest rates. We measure conventional monetary policy shocks using futures markets data. Our main findings are that the overall variation in German excess stock returns mainly reflects revisions in expectations about dividends and that the stock market response to monetary policy shocks is dependent on the prevailing interest rate regime. In periods of negative real interest rates, a surprise monetary tightening leads to a decrease in excess stock returns. The channels behind this response are news about higher expected excess returns and lower future dividends.
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| 8. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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2018 års Ekonomipris till William Nordhaus och Paul Romer
- 2018
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Ingår i: Ekonomisk debatt. - : Nationalekonomiska Föreningen. - 2002-4231 .- 0345-2646. ; , s. 6-18
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Kungl Vetenskapsakademien har delat ut årets ekonomipris till William Nordhaus (verksam vid Yale University) ”för att ha integrerat klimatförändringar i långsiktig makroekonomisk analys” och Paul Romer (verksam vid New York University) ”för att ha integrerat teknisk utveckling i långsiktig makroekonomisk analys.” Nordhaus och Romer har vidgat vyerna för ekonomisk analys genom att konstruera modeller som visar hur marknadsekonomin växelverkar med naturen och med våra samlade kunskaper. Deras modeller och metoder hjälper oss att angripa några av vår tids mest avgörande och utmanande frågor om uthållig och hållbar ekonomisk tillväxt samt globalt välstånd.
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| 9. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Chapter 24 – Environmental Macroeconomics
- 2016
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Ingår i: Handbook of Macroeconomics. - : Elsevier. - 1574-0048. - 9780444594877 ; , s. 1893-2008
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We discuss climate change and resource scarcity from the perspective of macroeconomic modeling and quantitative evaluation. Our focus is on climate change: we build a very simple “integrated assessment model,” ie, a model that integrates the global economy and the climate in a unified framework. Such a model has three key modules: the climate, the carbon cycle, and the economy. We provide a description of how to build tractable and yet realistic modules of the climate and the carbon cycle. The baseline economic model, then, is static but has a macroeconomic structure, ie, it has the standard features of modern macroeconomic analysis. Thus, it is quantitatively specified and can be calibrated to obtain an approximate social cost of carbon. The static model is then used to illustrate a number of points that have been made in the broad literature on climate change. Our chapter begins, however, with a short discussion of resource scarcity—also from the perspective of standard macroeconomic modeling—offering a dynamic framework of analysis and stating the key challenges. Our last section combines resource scarcity and the integrated assessment setup within a fully dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertainty. That model delivers positive and normative quantitative implications and can be viewed as a platform for macroeconomic analysis of climate change and sustainability issues more broadly.
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| 10. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Climate policy
- 2015
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Ingår i: Economic Policy. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0266-4658 .- 1468-0327. ; 31:87, s. 503-558
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper makes suggestions for climate policy and defends them based on recent research in economics and the natural sciences. In summary: (i) the optimal carbon tax is rather modest; (ii) the key climate threat is coal; (iii) a carbon tax is to be preferred over a quantity-based system; (iv) the optimal tax on carbon does not appreciably harm growth; (v) subsidies to green technology are beneficial for the climate only to the extent that they make green technology outcompete coal; and (vi) a carbon tax is politically feasible.
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| 11. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Environmental Macroeconomics
- 2016
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Ingår i: Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 2 / edited by John B. Taylor and Harald Uhlig. - Amsterdam : Elsevier. - 9780444594877 ; , s. 1893-2008
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We discuss climate change and resource scarcity from the perspective of macroeconomic modeling and quantitative evaluation. Our focus is on climate change: we build a very simple “integrated assessment model,” ie, a model that integrates the global economy and the climate in a unified framework. Such a model has three key modules: the climate, the carbon cycle, and the economy. We provide a description of how to build tractable and yet realistic modules of the climate and the carbon cycle. The baseline economic model, then, is static but has a macroeconomic structure, ie, it has the standard features of modern macroeconomic analysis. Thus, it is quantitatively specified and can be calibrated to obtain an approximate social cost of carbon. The static model is then used to illustrate a number of points that have been made in the broad literature on climate change. Our chapter begins, however, with a short discussion of resource scarcity—also from the perspective of standard macroeconomic modeling—offering a dynamic framework of analysis and stating the key challenges. Our last section combines resource scarcity and the integrated assessment setup within a fully dynamic general equilibrium model with uncertainty. That model delivers positive and normative quantitative implications and can be viewed as a platform for macroeconomic analysis of climate change and sustainability issues more broadly. © 2016 Elsevier B.V.
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| 12. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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Should Developing Countries Constrain Resource-Income Spending? A Quantitative Analysis of Oil Income in Uganda
- 2017
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Ingår i: Energy Journal. - : International Association for Energy Economics (IAEE). - 0195-6574 .- 1944-9089. ; 38:1, s. 103-131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A large increase in government spending following resource discoveries often entails political risks, inefficient investments and increased volatility. Setting up a sovereign wealth fund with a clear spending constraint may decrease these risks. On the other hand, in a capital scarce developing economy with limited access to international borrowing, such a spending constraint may lower welfare by reducing domestic capital accumulation and hindering consumption increases for the currently poor. These two contradicting considerations pose a dilemma for policy makers in deciding whether to set up a sovereign wealth fund with a spending constraint. Using Uganda's recent oil discovery as a case study, this paper presents a quantitative macroeconomic analysis and examines the potential loss of constraining spending through a sovereign wealth fund with a simple spending rule. We find that the loss is relatively low and unlikely to dominate the political risks associated with increased oil spending. Thus, such a spending constraint appears well warranted.
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| 13. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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The Consequences of Uncertainty: Climate Sensitivity and Economic Sensitivity to the Climate
- 2018
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Ingår i: Annual Review of Economics. - : Annual Reviews. - 1941-1383 .- 1941-1391. - 9780824346102 ; , s. 189-205
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Bokkapitel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We construct an integrated assessment model with multiple energy sources-two fossil fuels and green energy-and use it to evaluate ranges of plausible estimates for the climate sensitivity, as well as for the sensitivity of the economy to climate change. Rather than focusing explicitly on uncertainty, we look at extreme scenarios defined by the upper and lower limits given in available studies in the literature. We compare optimal policy with laissez faire, and we point out the possible policy errors that could arise. By far the largest policy error arises when the climate policy is overly passive; overly zealous climate policy (i.e., a high carbon tax applied when climate change and its negative impacts on the economy are very limited) does not hurt the economy much as there is considerable substitutability between fossil and nonfossil energy sources.
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| 14. |
- Hassler, John, et al.
(författare)
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The fossil episode
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Monetary Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0304-3932 .- 1873-1295. ; 83, s. 14-26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Agriculture sector output (biocarbon) is a good substitute for oil in energy production but oil cannot be used as food. This one-way substitutability is analyzed in a dynamic general equilibrium model. It features three endogenous phases: a pure fossil, a mixed fossil and biocarbon and an absorbing biocarbon fuel only phase. In the latter two, the demand for biocarbon as fuel leads to increasing food prices. Depending on how easily capital and labor can reallocate, food prices increase by between 40% and 240%. The model is also used to analyze climate consequences of biocarbon fuel polices and of the shale revolution.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Sterner, Thomas, 1952, et al.
(författare)
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Policy design for the Anthropocene
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 2, s. 14-21
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2019, Springer Nature Limited. Today, more than ever, ‘Spaceship Earth’ is an apt metaphor as we chart the boundaries for a safe planet1. Social scientists both analyse why society courts disaster by approaching or even overstepping these boundaries and try to design suitable policies to avoid these perils. Because the threats of transgressing planetary boundaries are global, long-run, uncertain and interconnected, they must be analysed together to avoid conflicts and take advantage of synergies. To obtain policies that are effective at both international and local levels requires careful analysis of the underlying mechanisms across scientific disciplines and approaches, and must take politics into account. In this Perspective, we examine the complexities of designing policies that can keep Earth within the biophysical limits favourable to human life.
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