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- Smink, P. A., et al.
(författare)
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A prediction of the renal and cardiovascular efficacy of aliskiren in ALTITUDE using short-term changes in multiple risk markers
- 2014
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Ingår i: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2047-4873 .- 2047-4881. ; 21:4, s. 434-441
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction We recently developed and validated in existing trials a novel algorithm (PRE score) to predict long-term drug efficacy based on short-term (month-6) drug-induced changes in multiple risk markers. To show the value of the PRE score for ongoing and planned clinical trials, we here report the predicted long-term cardio-renal efficacy of aliskiren in type 2 diabetes, which was investigated in the ALTITUDE trial, but unknown at the time this study was conducted. Methods We established the relation between multiple risk markers and cardio-renal endpoints (as defined in ALTITUDE) using a background database from past clinical trials. The short-term effect of aliskiren on multiple risk markers was taken from the AVOID trial. A PRE score was developed by multivariate Cox analysis in the background population and was then applied to the baseline and month-6 measurements of the aliskiren treatment arm of the AVOID trial to predict cardio-renal risk. The net risk difference at these time-points, after correction for placebo effects, was taken to indicate the estimated long-term cardio-renal risk change. Results Based on the PRE score, we predicted that aliskiren treatment in ALTITUDE would confer a relative risk change of -7.9% (95% CI -2.5 to -13.4) for the cardio-renal endpoint, a risk change of -5.1% (-1.2 to -9.0) for the CV endpoint and a non-significant risk change of -19.9% (-42.1 to +2.1) for the renal endpoint. Conclusions PRE score estimations suggested that aliskiren has only a marginal additive protective effect on cardio-renal endpoints. These predictions were validated by the results of the ALTITUDE trial, confirming the potential of the PRE score to prospectively predict drug efficacy on cardio-renal outcomes.
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| 2. |
- Vimaleswaran, Karani S, et al.
(författare)
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Association of vitamin D status with arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk: a mendelian randomisation study.
- 2014
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Ingår i: The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology. - 2213-8595 .- 2213-8587. ; 2:9, s. 719-29
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Low plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentration is associated with high arterial blood pressure and hypertension risk, but whether this association is causal is unknown. We used a mendelian randomisation approach to test whether 25(OH)D concentration is causally associated with blood pressure and hypertension risk. Methods In this mendelian randomisation study, we generated an allele score (25[OH]D synthesis score) based on variants of genes that affect 25(OH)D synthesis or substrate availability (CYP2R1 and DHCR7), which we used as a proxy for 25(OH)D concentration. We meta-analysed data for up to 108173 individuals from 35 studies in the D-CarDia collaboration to investigate associations between the allele score and blood pressure measurements. We complemented these analyses with previously published summary statistics from the International Consortium on Blood Pressure (ICBP), the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology (CHARGE) consortium, and the Global Blood Pressure Genetics (Global BPGen) consortium. Findings In phenotypic analyses (up to n=49363), increased 25(OH)D concentration was associated with decreased systolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, −0·12 mm Hg, 95% CI −0·20 to −0·04; p=0·003) and reduced odds of hypertension (odds ratio [OR] 0·98, 95% CI 0·97–0·99; p=0·0003), but not with decreased diastolic blood pressure (β per 10% increase, −0·02 mm Hg, −0·08 to 0·03; p=0·37). In meta-analyses in which we combined data from D-CarDia and the ICBP (n=146581, after exclusion of overlapping studies), each 25(OH)D-increasing allele of the synthesis score was associated with a change of −0·10 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure (−0·21 to −0·0001; p=0·0498) and a change of −0·08 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (−0·15 to −0·02; p=0·01). When D-CarDia and consortia data for hypertension were meta-analysed together (n=142255), the synthesis score was associated with a reduced odds of hypertension (OR per allele, 0·98, 0·96–0·99; p=0·001). In instrumental variable analysis, each 10% increase in genetically instrumented 25(OH)D concentration was associated with a change of −0·29 mm Hg in diastolic blood pressure (−0·52 to −0·07; p=0·01), a change of −0·37 mm Hg in systolic blood pressure (−0·73 to 0·003; p=0·052), and an 8·1% decreased odds of hypertension (OR 0·92, 0·87–0·97; p=0·002). Interpretation Increased plasma concentrations of 25(OH)D might reduce the risk of hypertension. This finding warrants further investigation in an independent, similarly powered study.
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