| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Sampson, Joshua N., et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of Heritability and Shared Heritability Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies for 13 Cancer Types
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 107:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, h(l)(2), on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (rho = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (rho = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (rho = 0.51, SE = 0.18), and bladder and lung (rho = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.
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| 3. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 4. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 5. |
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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Kristanl, Matej, et al.
(författare)
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The Seventh Visual Object Tracking VOT2019 Challenge Results
- 2019
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Ingår i: 2019 IEEE/CVF INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON COMPUTER VISION WORKSHOPS (ICCVW). - : IEEE COMPUTER SOC. - 9781728150239 ; , s. 2206-2241
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Visual Object Tracking challenge VOT2019 is the seventh annual tracker benchmarking activity organized by the VOT initiative. Results of 81 trackers are presented; many are state-of-the-art trackers published at major computer vision conferences or in journals in the recent years. The evaluation included the standard VOT and other popular methodologies for short-term tracking analysis as well as the standard VOT methodology for long-term tracking analysis. The VOT2019 challenge was composed of five challenges focusing on different tracking domains: (i) VOT-ST2019 challenge focused on short-term tracking in RGB, (ii) VOT-RT2019 challenge focused on "real-time" short-term tracking in RGB, (iii) VOT-LT2019 focused on long-term tracking namely coping with target disappearance and reappearance. Two new challenges have been introduced: (iv) VOT-RGBT2019 challenge focused on short-term tracking in RGB and thermal imagery and (v) VOT-RGBD2019 challenge focused on long-term tracking in RGB and depth imagery. The VOT-ST2019, VOT-RT2019 and VOT-LT2019 datasets were refreshed while new datasets were introduced for VOT-RGBT2019 and VOT-RGBD2019. The VOT toolkit has been updated to support both standard short-term, long-term tracking and tracking with multi-channel imagery. Performance of the tested trackers typically by far exceeds standard baselines. The source code for most of the trackers is publicly available from the VOT page. The dataset, the evaluation kit and the results are publicly available at the challenge website(1).
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| 8. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. IV. Imaging the Central Supermassive Black Hole
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 875:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the first Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) images of M87, using observations from April 2017 at 1.3 mm wavelength. These images show a prominent ring with a diameter of similar to 40 mu as, consistent with the size and shape of the lensed photon orbit encircling the "shadow" of a supermassive black hole. The ring is persistent across four observing nights and shows enhanced brightness in the south. To assess the reliability of these results, we implemented a two-stage imaging procedure. In the first stage, four teams, each blind to the others' work, produced images of M87 using both an established method (CLEAN) and a newer technique (regularized maximum likelihood). This stage allowed us to avoid shared human bias and to assess common features among independent reconstructions. In the second stage, we reconstructed synthetic data from a large survey of imaging parameters and then compared the results with the corresponding ground truth images. This stage allowed us to select parameters objectively to use when reconstructing images of M87. Across all tests in both stages, the ring diameter and asymmetry remained stable, insensitive to the choice of imaging technique. We describe the EHT imaging procedures, the primary image features in M87, and the dependence of these features on imaging assumptions.
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| 9. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. V. Physical Origin of the Asymmetric Ring
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 875:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) has mapped the central compact radio source of the elliptical galaxy M87 at 1.3 mm with unprecedented angular resolution. Here we consider the physical implications of the asymmetric ring seen in the 2017 EHT data. To this end, we construct a large library of models based on general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations and synthetic images produced by general relativistic ray tracing. We compare the observed visibilities with this library and confirm that the asymmetric ring is consistent with earlier predictions of strong gravitational lensing of synchrotron emission from a hot plasma orbiting near the black hole event horizon. The ring radius and ring asymmetry depend on black hole mass and spin, respectively, and both are therefore expected to be stable when observed in future EHT campaigns. Overall, the observed image is consistent with expectations for the shadow of a spinning Kerr black hole as predicted by general relativity. If the black hole spin and M87's large scale jet are aligned, then the black hole spin vector is pointed away from Earth. Models in our library of non-spinning black holes are inconsistent with the observations as they do not produce sufficiently powerful jets. At the same time, in those models that produce a sufficiently powerful jet, the latter is powered by extraction of black hole spin energy through mechanisms akin to the Blandford-Znajek process. We briefly consider alternatives to a black hole for the central compact object. Analysis of existing EHT polarization data and data taken simultaneously at other wavelengths will soon enable new tests of the GRMHD models, as will future EHT campaigns at 230 and 345 GHz.
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| 10. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. VI. The Shadow and Mass of the Central Black Hole
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 875:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present measurements of the properties of the central radio source in M87 using Event Horizon Telescope data obtained during the 2017 campaign. We develop and fit geometric crescent models (asymmetric rings with interior brightness depressions) using two independent sampling algorithms that consider distinct representations of the visibility data. We show that the crescent family of models is statistically preferred over other comparably complex geometric models that we explore. We calibrate the geometric model parameters using general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) models of the emission region and estimate physical properties of the source. We further fit images generated from GRMHD models directly to the data. We compare the derived emission region and black hole parameters from these analyses with those recovered from reconstructed images. There is a remarkable consistency among all methods and data sets. We find that >50% of the total flux at arcsecond scales comes from near the horizon, and that the emission is dramatically suppressed interior to this region by a factor >10, providing direct evidence of the predicted shadow of a black hole. Across all methods, we measure a crescent diameter of 42 +/- 3 mu as and constrain its fractional width to be
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| 11. |
- Porth, Oliver, et al.
(författare)
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The Event Horizon General Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamic Code Comparison Project
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal, Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4365 .- 0067-0049. ; 243:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent developments in compact object astrophysics, especially the discovery of merging neutron stars by LIGO, the imaging of the black hole in M87 by the Event Horizon Telescope, and high- precision astrometry of the Galactic Center at close to the event horizon scale by the GRAVITY experiment motivate the development of numerical source models that solve the equations of general relativistic magnetohydrodynamics (GRMHD). Here we compare GRMHD solutions for the evolution of a magnetized accretion flow where turbulence is promoted by the magnetorotational instability from a set of nine GRMHD codes: Athena++, BHAC, Cosmos++, ECHO, H-AMR, iharm3D, HARM-Noble, IllinoisGRMHD, and KORAL. Agreement among the codes improves as resolution increases, as measured by a consistently applied, specially developed set of code performance metrics. We conclude that the community of GRMHD codes is mature, capable, and consistent on these test problems.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Schuettpelz, Eric, et al.
(författare)
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A community-derived classification for extant lycophytes and ferns
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Systematics and Evolution. - : Wiley. - 1674-4918 .- 1759-6831. ; 54:6, s. 563-603
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Phylogeny has long informed pteridophyte classification. As our ability to infer evolutionary trees has improved, classifications aimed at recognizing natural groups have become increasingly predictive and stable. Here, we provide a modern, comprehensive classification for lycophytes and ferns, down to the genus level, utilizing a community-based approach. We use monophyly as the primary criterion for the recognition of taxa, but also aim to preserve existing taxa and circumscriptions that are both widely accepted and consistent with our understanding of pteridophyte phylogeny. In total, this classification treats an estimated 11 916 species in 337 genera, 51 families, 14 orders, and two classes. This classification is not intended as the final word on lycophyte and fern taxonomy, but rather a summary statement of current hypotheses, derived from the best available data and shaped by those most familiar with the plants in question. We hope that it will serve as a resource for those wanting references to the recent literature on pteridophyte phylogeny and classification, a framework for guiding future investigations, and a stimulus to further discourse.
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| 14. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. I. the Shadow of the Supermassive Black Hole
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 875:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- When surrounded by a transparent emission region, black holes are expected to reveal a dark shadow caused by gravitational light bending and photon capture at the event horizon. To image and study this phenomenon, we have assembled the Event Horizon Telescope, a global very long baseline interferometry array observing at a wavelength of 1.3 mm. This allows us to reconstruct event-horizon-scale images of the supermassive black hole candidate in the center of the giant elliptical galaxy M87. We have resolved the central compact radio source as an asymmetric bright emission ring with a diameter of 42 ±3 μas, which is circular and encompasses a central depression in brightness with a flux ratio ≈10:1. The emission ring is recovered using different calibration and imaging schemes, with its diameter and width remaining stable over four different observations carried out in different days. Overall, the observed image is consistent with expectations for the shadow of a Kerr black hole as predicted by general relativity. The asymmetry in brightness in the ring can be explained in terms of relativistic beaming of the emission from a plasma rotating close to the speed of light around a black hole. We compare our images to an extensive library of ray-traced general-relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of black holes and derive a central mass of M =(6.5 ±0.7) ×10 9 M o . Our radio-wave observations thus provide powerful evidence for the presence of supermassive black holes in centers of galaxies and as the central engines of active galactic nuclei. They also present a new tool to explore gravity in its most extreme limit and on a mass scale that was so far not accessible.
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| 15. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. II. Array and Instrumentation
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 875:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) is a very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) array that comprises millimeter- and submillimeter-wavelength telescopes separated by distances comparable to the diameter of the Earth. At a nominal operating wavelength of ∼1.3 mm, EHT angular resolution (λ/D) is ∼25 μas, which is sufficient to resolve nearby supermassive black hole candidates on spatial and temporal scales that correspond to their event horizons. With this capability, the EHT scientific goals are to probe general relativistic effects in the strong-field regime and to study accretion and relativistic jet formation near the black hole boundary. In this Letter we describe the system design of the EHT, detail the technology and instrumentation that enable observations, and provide measures of its performance. Meeting the EHT science objectives has required several key developments that have facilitated the robust extension of the VLBI technique to EHT observing wavelengths and the production of instrumentation that can be deployed on a heterogeneous array of existing telescopes and facilities. To meet sensitivity requirements, high-bandwidth digital systems were developed that process data at rates of 64 gigabit s -1 , exceeding those of currently operating cm-wavelength VLBI arrays by more than an order of magnitude. Associated improvements include the development of phasing systems at array facilities, new receiver installation at several sites, and the deployment of hydrogen maser frequency standards to ensure coherent data capture across the array. These efforts led to the coordination and execution of the first Global EHT observations in 2017 April, and to event-horizon-scale imaging of the supermassive black hole candidate in M87.
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| 16. |
- Akiyama, Kazunori, et al.
(författare)
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First M87 Event Horizon Telescope Results. III. Data Processing and Calibration
- 2019
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 875:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the calibration and reduction of Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) 1.3 mm radio wavelength observations of the supermassive black hole candidate at the center of the radio galaxy M87 and the quasar 3C 279, taken during the 2017 April 5-11 observing campaign. These global very long baseline interferometric observations include for the first time the highly sensitive Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA); reaching an angular resolution of 25 μas, with characteristic sensitivity limits of ∼1 mJy on baselines to ALMA and ∼10 mJy on other baselines. The observations present challenges for existing data processing tools, arising from the rapid atmospheric phase fluctuations, wide recording bandwidth, and highly heterogeneous array. In response, we developed three independent pipelines for phase calibration and fringe detection, each tailored to the specific needs of the EHT. The final data products include calibrated total intensity amplitude and phase information. They are validated through a series of quality assurance tests that show consistency across pipelines and set limits on baseline systematic errors of 2% in amplitude and 1° in phase. The M87 data reveal the presence of two nulls in correlated flux density at ∼3.4 and ∼8.3 Gλ and temporal evolution in closure quantities, indicating intrinsic variability of compact structure on a timescale of days, or several light-crossing times for a few billion solar-mass black hole. These measurements provide the first opportunity to image horizon-scale structure in M87.
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| 17. |
- Ariyawansa, Hiran A., et al.
(författare)
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Fungal diversity notes 111–252—taxonomic and phylogenetic contributions to fungal taxa
- 2015
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Ingår i: Fungal diversity. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1560-2745 .- 1878-9129. ; 75, s. 27-274
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is a compilation of notes on 142 fungal taxa, including five new families, 20 new genera, and 100 new species, representing a wide taxonomic and geographic range. The new families, Ascocylindricaceae, Caryosporaceae and Wicklowiaceae (Ascomycota) are introduced based on their distinct lineages and unique morphology. The new Dothideomycete genera Pseudomassariosphaeria (Amniculicolaceae), Heracleicola, Neodidymella and P s e u d o m i c ros p h a e r i o p s i s ( D id y m e l l a c e a e ) , P s e u d o p i t h o m y c e s ( D i d y m o s p h a e r i a c e a e ) , Brunneoclavispora, Neolophiostoma and Sulcosporium (Halotthiaceae), Lophiohelichrysum (Lophiostomataceae), G a l l i i c o l a , Popul o c re s c e n t i a a nd Va g i c o l a (Phaeosphaeriaceae), Ascocylindrica (Ascocylindricaceae), E l o n g a t o p e d i c e l l a t a ( R o u s s o e l l a c e a e ) , Pseudoasteromassaria (Latoruaceae) and Pseudomonodictys (Macrodiplodiopsidaceae) are introduced. The newly described species of Dothideomycetes (Ascomycota) are Pseudomassariosphaeria bromicola (Amniculicolaceae), Flammeascoma lignicola (Anteagloniaceae), Ascocylindrica marina (Ascocylindricaceae) , Lembosia xyliae (Asterinaceae), Diplodia crataegicola and Diplodia galiicola ( B o t r yosphae r i a cea e ) , Caryospor a aquat i c a (Caryosporaceae), Heracleicola premilcurensis and Neodi dymell a thai landi cum (Didymellaceae) , Pseudopithomyces palmicola (Didymosphaeriaceae), Floricola viticola (Floricolaceae), Brunneoclavispora bambusae, Neolophiostoma pigmentatum and Sulcosporium thailandica (Halotthiaceae), Pseudoasteromassaria fagi (Latoruaceae), Keissleriella dactylidicola (Lentitheciaceae), Lophiohelichrysum helichrysi (Lophiostomataceae), Aquasubmersa japonica (Lophiotremataceae) , Pseudomonodictys tectonae (Macrodiplodiopsidaceae), Microthyrium buxicola and Tumidispora shoreae (Microthyriaceae), Alloleptosphaeria clematidis, Allophaeosphaer i a c y t i s i , Allophaeosphae r i a subcylindrospora, Dematiopleospora luzulae, Entodesmium artemisiae, Galiicola pseudophaeosphaeria, Loratospora(Basidiomycota) are introduced together with a new genus Neoantrodiella (Neoantrodiellaceae), here based on both morphology coupled with molecular data. In the class Agaricomycetes, Agaricus pseudolangei, Agaricus haematinus, Agaricus atrodiscus and Agaricus exilissimus (Agaricaceae) , Amanita m e l l e i a l b a , Amanita pseudosychnopyramis and Amanita subparvipantherina (Amanitaceae), Entoloma calabrum, Cora barbulata, Dictyonema gomezianum and Inocybe granulosa (Inocybaceae), Xerocomellus sarnarii (Boletaceae), Cantharellus eucalyptorum, Cantharellus nigrescens, Cantharellus tricolor and Cantharellus variabilicolor (Cantharellaceae), Cortinarius alboamarescens, Cortinarius brunneoalbus, Cortinarius ochroamarus, Cortinarius putorius and Cortinarius seidlii (Cortinariaceae), Hymenochaete micropora and Hymenochaete subporioides (Hymenochaetaceae), Xylodon ramicida (Schizoporaceae), Colospora andalasii (Polyporaceae), Russula guangxiensis and Russula hakkae (Russulaceae), Tremella dirinariae, Tremella graphidis and Tremella pyrenulae (Tremellaceae) are introduced. Four new combinations Neoantrodiella gypsea, Neoantrodiella thujae (Neoantrodiellaceae), Punctulariopsis cremeoalbida, Punctulariopsis efibulata (Punctulariaceae) are also introduced here for the division Basidiomycota. Furthermore Absidia caatinguensis, Absidia koreana and Gongronella koreana (Cunninghamellaceae), Mortierella pisiformis and Mortierella formosana (Mortierellaceae) are newly introduced in the Zygomycota, while Neocallimastix cameroonii and Piromyces irregularis (Neocallimastigaceae) ar e i n t roduced i n the Neocallimastigomycota. Reference specimens or changes in classification and notes are provided for Alternaria ethzedia, Cucurbitaria ephedricola, Austropleospora, Austropleospora archidendri, Byssosphaeria rhodomphala, Lophiostoma caulium, Pseudopithomyces maydicus, Massariosphaeria, Neomassariosphaeria and Pestalotiopsis montellica.
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| 18. |
- Li, Jian-De, et al.
(författare)
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Co-placement optimization in sensor-reusable cyber-physical digital microfluidic biochips
- 2019
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Ingår i: Microelectronics Journal. - : Elsevier. - 0959-8324 .- 0026-2692. ; 83, s. 185-196
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Digital microfluidic biochips (DMFBs) facilitate modern healthcare applications. One of the most important applications is point-of-care (POC) clinical diagnosis which is directly related to human health. However, biochemical experiments are usually error-prone, which makes monitoring intermediate results during bioassay execution be required to ensure the correctness of POC clinical diagnosis. To tackle this problem, cyber-physical digital microfluidic biochips with integrated sensors have been proposed and have attracted attention recently. In order to fully utilize the sensors for detection, the reusability of sensors should be taken into consideration during the module placement stage of cyber-physical DMFBs synthesis flow. Moreover, excessive actuation of electrodes may cause reliability degradation and this issuse should also be taken care of during module placement stage. In order to deal with the aforementioned problems, this paper presents the first co-optimization method for both module and sensor placement. Experimental results show that the proposed method can effectively minimize bioassay completion time while meeting all constraints from sensors and electrodes.
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| 19. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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