| 1. |
- Heyman, Jakob, et al.
(författare)
-
Glacier mass balance modelling of the Tibetan Plateau – mesh dependence issues
- 2008
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Tibetan Plateau is an extraordinary topographic feature which exerts a major impact on regional and global climate. Its glacierised mountain ranges attain extreme altitudes and represent an important water resource for more than a billion people in Asia. Understanding the past glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau therefore is important to understanding global and regional climate and glacier hydrological evolution. A regional glacier modelling study has been initiated as part of an umbrella project aiming towards reconstructing the Quaternary palaeoglaciology of the Tibetan Plateau. On the basis of field studies which includes cosmogenic exposure-age dating, it is now generally recognised that former glaciers on the Tibetan Plateau, while more extensive than today, were still restricted to individual mountain areas. In contrast, a handful of previous modelling studies (Kuhle et al. 1989; Calov & Marsiat 1998; Bintanja et al. 2002; Casal et al. 2004) yield a bifurcated result with either 1) the growth of plateau-wide ice sheets (thus overshooting field evidence) or, 2) virtually no ice (which undershoots field evidence).We apply and test a positive degree day (PDD) model across the Tibetan Plateau to explore the parameter sensitivity and potential issues of grid-dependence. Utilising the 1km mean monthly (1950 – 2000) distributions of temperature and precipitation from the WorldClim database as a contemporary reference climatology, a suite of PDD experiments are run to predict present day ice cover. At a resolution of 1 km the algorithm nicely identifies zones of positive mass balance (accumulation) across most major contemporary glaciarised areas. Unsurprisingly increased grid resolution yields a significant decrease in the predicted accumulation area with a 40 km grid completely failing to predict accumulation across the domain. Such mesh dependence with larger grid-resolutions yielding less accumulation illustrates a major flaw in large-scale, low resolution ice modelling in areas of high topographical relief where adequate sub-grid parameterisation of accumulation/flow/melt processes have not been accounted for in a meaningful manner (e.g. Marshall & Clarke 1999). The result of the 20 km resolution PDD model can be manipulated to converge by applying extreme perturbations in temperature (c. -10 K) or precipitation (c. + 8000 %) but this yields plateau-wide accumulation areas far exceeding field evidence of glaciation. Our results indicate that the bifurcation in Quaternary ice extent identified in previous ice sheet modelling studies of the Tibetan Plateau are very likely a consequence of grid-resolution related issues implicit to the models applied.ReferencesBintanja R., van de Wal R.S.W., Oerlemans J. 2002: Global ice volume variations through the last glacial cycle simulated by a 3-D ice-dynamical model. Quaternary International, 95-96, 11-23.Calov R, Marsiat I. 1998: Simulations of the Northern Hemisphere through the last glacial-interglacial cycle with a vertically integrated and a three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet model coupled to a climate model. Annals of Glaciology, 27, 169-176.Casal T.G.D., Kutzbach J.E., Thompson L.G. 2004: Present And Past Ice-Sheet Mass Balance Simulations For Greenland And The Tibetan Plateau. Climate Dynamics, 23, 407-425.Kuhle M., Herterich K., Calov R. 1989: On the Ice Age Glaciation of the Tibetan Highlands and its Transformation into a 3-D Model. GeoJournal, 19, 201-206.Marshall S.J., Clarke G.K.C. 1999: Ice sheet inception: subgrid hypsometric parameterization of mass balance in an ice sheet model. Climate Dynamics, 15, 533-550.
|
|
| 2. |
- Hubbard, Alun, et al.
(författare)
-
Dynamic cycles, ice streams and their impact on the extent, chronology and deglaciation of the British–Irish ice sheet
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 28:7-8, s. 758-776
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present results from a suite of forward transient numerical modelling experiments of the British and Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS), consisting of Scottish, Welsh and Irish accumulation centres, spanning the last Glacial period from 38 to 10 ka BP. The 3D thermomechanical model employed uses higher-order physics to solve longitudinal (membrane) stresses and to reproduce grounding-line dynamics. Surface mass balance is derived using a distributed degree-day calculation based on a reference climatology from mean (1961–1990) precipitation and temperature patterns. The model is perturbed from this reference state by a scaled NGRIP oxygen isotope curve and the SPECMAP sea-level reconstruction. Isostatic response to ice loading is computed using an elastic lithosphere/relaxed asthenosphere scheme. A suite of 350 simulations were designed to explore the parameter space of model uncertainties and sensitivities, to yield a subset of experiments that showed close correspondence to offshore and onshore ice-directional indicators, broad BIIS chronology, and the relative sea-level record. Three of these simulations are described in further detail and indicate that the separate ice centres of the modelled BIIS complex are dynamically interdependent during the build up to maximum conditions, but remain largely independent throughout much of the simulation. The modelled BIIS is extremely dynamic, drained mainly by a number of transient but recurrent ice streams which dynamically switch and fluctuate in extent and intensity on a centennial time-scale. A series of binge/purge, advance/retreat, cycles are identified which correspond to alternating periods of relatively cold-based ice, (associated with a high aspect ratio and net growth), and wet-based ice with a lower aspect ratio, characterised by streaming. The timing and dynamics of these events are determined through a combination of basal thermomechanical switching spatially propagated and amplified through longitudinal coupling, but are modulated and phase-lagged to the oscillations within the NGRIP record of climate forcing. Phases of predominant streaming activity coincide with periods of maximum ice extent and are triggered by abrupt transitions from a cold to relatively warm climate, resulting in major iceberg/melt discharge events into the North Sea and Atlantic Ocean. The broad chronology of the modelled BIIS indicates a maximum extent at 20 ka, with fast-flowing ice across its western and northern sectors that extended to the continental shelf edge. Fast-flowing streams also dominate the Irish Sea and North Sea Basin sectors and impinge onto SW England and East Anglia. From 19 ka BP deglaciation is achieved in less than 2000 years, discharging the freshwater equivalent of 2 m global sea-level rise. A much reduced ice sheet centred on Scotland undergoes subsequent retrenchment and a series of advance/retreat cycles into the North Sea Basin from 17 ka onwards, culminating in a sustained Younger Dryas event from 13 to 11.5 ka BP. Modelled ice cover is persistent across the Western and Central Highlands until the last remnant glaciers disappear around 10.5 ka BP.
|
|
| 3. |
- Napieralski, Jacob, et al.
(författare)
-
Towards a GIS assessment of numerical ice sheet model performance using geomorphological data
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Journal of Glaciology. ; 53:180, s. 71-83
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A major difficulty in assimilating geomorphological information with ice-sheet models is the lack of a consistent methodology to systematically compare model output and field data. As an initial step in establishing a quantitative comparison methodology, automated proximity and conformity analysis (APCA) and automated flow direction analysis (AFDA) have been developed to assess the level of correspondence between modelled ice extent and ice-marginal features such as end moraines, as well as between modelled basal flow directions and palaeo-flow direction indicators, such as glacial lineations. To illustrate the potential of such an approach, an ensemble suite of 40 numerical simulations of the Fennoscandian ice sheet were compared to end moraines of the Last Glacial Maximum and the Younger Dryas and to glacial lineations in northern Sweden using APCA and AFDA. Model experiments evaluated in this manner were ranked according to level of correspondence. Such an approach holds considerable promise for optimizing the parameter space and coherence of ice-flow models by automated, quantitative assessment of multiple ensemble experiments against a database of geological or glaciological evidence.
|
|
