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1.	Abrahams-Gessel, Shafika, et al. (author) Improvements in Hypertension Control in the Rural Longitudinal HAALSI Cohort of South African Adults Aged 40 and Older, From 2014 to 2019 2023 In: American Journal of Hypertension. - : Oxford University Press. - 0895-7061 .- 1941-7225. ; 36:6, s. 324-332 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Over half of the South African adults aged 45 years and older have hypertension but its effective management along the treatment cascade (awareness, treatment, and control) remains poorly understood.METHODS: We compared the prevalence of all stages of the hypertension treatment cascade in the rural HAALSI cohort of older adults at baseline and after four years of follow-up using household surveys and blood pressure data. Hypertension was a mean systolic blood pressure >140 mm Hg or diastolic pressure >90 mm Hg, or current use of anti-hypertension medication. Control was a mean blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg. The effects of sex and age on the treatment cascade at follow-up were assessed. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to estimate prevalence ratios along the treatment cascade at follow-up.RESULTS: Prevalence along the treatment cascade increased from baseline (B) to follow-up (F): awareness (64.4% vs. 83.6%), treatment (49.7% vs. 73.9%), and control (22.8% vs. 41.3%). At both time points, women had higher levels of awareness (B: 70.5% vs. 56.3%; F: 88.1% vs. 76.7%), treatment (B: 55.9% vs. 41.55; F: 79.9% vs. 64.7%), and control (B: 26.5% vs. 17.9%; F: 44.8% vs. 35.7%). Prevalence along the cascade increased linearly with age for everyone. Predictors of awareness included being female, elderly, or visiting a primary health clinic three times in the previous 3 months, and the latter two also predicted hypertension control.CONCLUSIONS: There were significant improvements in awareness, treatment, and control of hypertension from baseline to follow-up and women fared better at all stages, at both time points.
2.	Byass, Peter, 1957-, et al. (author) A Successful Failure : missing the MDG4 Target for Under-Five Mortality in South Africa 2015 In: PLoS Medicine. - : PloS. - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 12:12 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
3.	Byass, Peter, et al. (author) Comparing verbal autopsy cause of death findings as determined by physician coding and probabilistic modelling : a public health analysis of 54 000 deaths in Africa and Asia 2015 In: Journal of Global Health. - 2047-2978 .- 2047-2986. ; 5:1, s. 65-73 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Coverage of civil registration and vital statistics varies globally, with most deaths in Africa and Asia remaining either unregistered or registered without cause of death. One important constraint has been a lack of fit-for-purpose tools for registering deaths and assigning causes in situations where no doctor is involved. Verbal autopsy (interviewing care-givers and witnesses to deaths and interpreting their information into causes of death) is the only available solution. Automated interpretation of verbal autopsy data into cause of death information is essential for rapid, consistent and affordable processing.METHODS: Verbal autopsy archives covering 54 182 deaths from five African and Asian countries were sourced on the basis of their geographical, epidemiological and methodological diversity, with existing physician-coded causes of death attributed. These data were unified into the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard format, and processed using the InterVA-4 model. Cause-specific mortality fractions from InterVA-4 and physician codes were calculated for each of 60 WHO 2012 cause categories, by age group, sex and source. Results from the two approaches were assessed for concordance and ratios of fractions by cause category. As an alternative metric, the Wilcoxon matched-pairs signed ranks test with two one-sided tests for stochastic equivalence was used.FINDINGS: The overall concordance correlation coefficient between InterVA-4 and physician codes was 0.83 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.91) and this increased to 0.97 (95% CI 0.96 to 0.99) when HIV/AIDS and pulmonary TB deaths were combined into a single category. Over half (53%) of the cause category ratios between InterVA-4 and physician codes by source were not significantly different from unity at the 99% level, increasing to 62% by age group. Wilcoxon tests for stochastic equivalence also demonstrated equivalence.CONCLUSIONS: These findings show strong concordance between InterVA-4 and physician-coded findings over this large and diverse data set. Although these analyses cannot prove that either approach constitutes absolute truth, there was high public health equivalence between the findings. Given the urgent need for adequate cause of death data from settings where deaths currently pass unregistered, and since the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and InterVA-4 tools represent relatively simple, cheap and available methods for determining cause of death on a large scale, they should be used as current tools of choice to fill gaps in cause of death data.
4.	Chakraborty, Rishika, et al. (author) Child support grant expansion and cognitive function among women in rural South Africa : findings from a natural experiment in the HAALSI cohort 2024 In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 19:3 March Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Cash transfers are a promising but understudied intervention that may protect cognitive function in adults. Although South Africa has a rapidly ageing population, little is known about the nature of association between cash transfers and cognitive function in this setting. Objectives We leveraged age-eligibility expansions to South Africa's Child Support Grant (CSG) to investigate the association between duration of CSG eligibility and cognitive function of biological mothers of child beneficiaries in South Africa.Methods: We analysed 2014/2015 baseline data from 944 women, aged 40–59 years with at least one CSG-eligible child, enrolled in the population-representative HAALSI cohort in Agincourt, South Africa. Duration of CSG eligibility for each mother was calculated based on the birth dates of all their children and the CSG age-eligibility expansion years (2003–2012). Cognitive function was measured using a cognitive battery administered at the HAALSI baseline interview. Linear regression was used to estimate the association between duration of CSG eligibility, dichotomized as low (≤10 years) and high (>10 years) eligibility, and cognitive function z-scores of the mothers.Results: High vs. low duration of CSG eligibility, was associated with higher cognitive function z-scores in the full sample [β: 0.15 SD units; 95% CI: 0.04, 0.26; p-value = 0.01]. In mothers with one to four lifetime children, but not five or more, high vs. low duration of CSG eligibility, was associated with higher cognitive function z-scores [β: 0.19 SD units; 95% CI: 0.05, 0.34, p-value = 0.02].Conclusion: Government cash transfers given to support raising children may confer substantial protective effects on the subsequent cognitive function of mothers. Further studies are needed to understand how parity may influence this relationship. Our findings bring evidence to policymakers for designing income supplementation programmes to promote healthy cognitive ageing in low-income settings.
5.	Clark, Samuel J, et al. (author) Cardiometabolic disease risk and HIV status in rural South Africa : establishing a baseline 2015 In: BMC Public Health. - : BioMed Central. - 1471-2458. ; 15 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: To inform health care and training, resource and research priorities, it is essential to establish how non-communicable disease risk factors vary by HIV-status in high HIV burden areas; and whether long-term anti-retroviral therapy (ART) plays a modifying role. Methods: As part of a cohort initiation, we conducted a baseline HIV/cardiometabolic risk factor survey in 2010-2011 using an age-sex stratified random sample of ages 15+ in rural South Africa. We modelled cardiometabolic risk factors and their associations by HIV-status and self-reported ART status for ages 18+ using sex-stratified logistic regression models. Results: Age-standardised HIV prevalence in women was 26% (95% CI 24-28%) and 19% (95% CI 17-21) in men. People with untreated HIV were less likely to have a high waist circumference in both women (OR 0.67; 95% CI 0.52-0.86) and men (OR 0.42; 95% CI 0.22-0.82). Untreated women were more likely to have low HDL and LDL, and treated women high triglycerides. Cardiometabolic risk factors increased with age except low HDL. The prevalence of hypertension was high (40% in women; 30% in men). Conclusions: Sub-Saharan Africa is facing intersecting epidemics of HIV and hypertension. In this setting, around half the adult population require long-term care for at least one of HIV, hypertension or diabetes. Together with the adverse effects that HIV and its treatment have on lipids, this may have serious implications for the South African health care system. Monitoring of the interaction of HIV, ART use, and cardiometabolic disease is needed at both individual and population levels.
6.	Du Toit, Jacques D., et al. (author) Estimating population level 24-h sodium excretion using spot urine samples in older adults in rural South Africa 2023 In: Journal of Hypertension. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 0263-6352 .- 1473-5598. ; 41:2, s. 280-287 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: South Africa has introduced regulations to reduce sodium in processed foods. Assessing salt consumption with 24-h urine collection is logistically challenging and expensive. We assess the accuracy of using spot urine samples to estimate 24-h urine sodium (24hrUNa) excretion at the population level in a cohort of older adults in rural South Africa.METHODS: 24hrUNa excretion was measured and compared to that estimated from matched spot urine samples in 399 individuals, aged 40-75 years, from rural Mpumalanga, South Africa. We used the Tanaka, Kawasaki, International Study of Sodium, Potassium, and Blood Pressure (INTERSALT), and Population Mean Volume (PMV) method to predict 24hrUNa at the individual and population level.RESULTS: The population median 24hrUNa excretion from our samples collected in 2017 was 2.6 g (interquartile range: 1.53-4.21) equal to an average daily salt intake of 6.6 g, whereas 65.4% of participants had a salt excretion above the WHO recommended 5 g/day. Estimated population median 24hrUNa derived from the INTERSALT, both with and without potassium, showed a nonsignificant difference of 0.25 g (P = 0.59) and 0.21 g (P = 0.67), respectively. In contrast, the Tanaka, Kawasaki, and PMV formulas were markedly higher than the measured 24hrUNa, with a median difference of 0.51 g (P = 0.004), 0.99 g (P = 0.00), and 1.05 g (P = 0.00) respectively. All formulas however performed poorly when predicting an individual's 24hrUNa.CONCLUSION: In this population, the INTERSALT formulas are a well suited and cost-effective alternative to 24-h urine collection for the evaluation of population median 24hrUNa excretion. This could play an important role for governments and public health agencies in evaluating local salt regulations and identifying at-risk populations.
7.	Garenne, Michel, et al. (author) Completeness of birth and death registration in a rural area of South Africa : the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance, 1992-2014 2016 In: Global Health Action. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 9 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Completeness of vital registration remains very low in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in rural areas. Objectives: To investigate trends and factors in completeness of birth and death registration in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa covering a population of about 110,000 persons, under demographic surveillance since 1992. The population belongs to the Shangaan ethnic group and hosts a sizeable community of Mozambican refugees.Design: Statistical analysis of birth and death registration over time in a 22-year perspective (1992-2014). Over this period, major efforts were made by the government of South Africa to improve vital registration. Factors associated with completeness of registration were investigated using univariate and multivariate analysis.Results: Birth registration was very incomplete at onset (7.8% in 1992) and reached high values at end point (90.5% in 2014). Likewise, death registration was low at onset (51.4% in 1992), also reaching high values at end point (97.1% in 2014). For births, the main factors were mother's age (much lower completeness among births to adolescent mothers), refugee status, and household wealth. For deaths, the major factors were age at death (lower completeness among under-five children), refugee status, and household wealth. Completeness increased for all demographic and socioeconomic categories studied and is likely to approach 100% in the future if trends continue at this speed.Conclusion: Reaching high values in the completeness of birth and death registration was achieved by excellent organization of the civil registration and vital statistics, a variety of financial incentives, strong involvement of health personnel, and wide-scale information and advocacy campaigns by the South African government.
8.	Garenne, Michel, et al. (author) Improving completeness of birth and death registration in rural Africa 2016 In: The Lancet Global Health. - 2214-109X. ; 4:9, s. E604-E605 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
9.	Gazeley, Ursula, et al. (author) Pregnancy-related mortality up to 1 year postpartum in sub-Saharan Africa : an analysis of verbal autopsy data from six countries 2024 In: British Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1470-0328 .- 1471-0528. ; 131:2, s. 163-174 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Objective: To compare the causes of death for women who died during pregnancy and within the first 42 days postpartum with those of women who died between >42 days and within 1 year postpartum.Design: Open population cohort (Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems).Setting: Ten Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) in The Gambia, Kenya, Malawi, Tanzania, Ethiopia and South Africa.Population: 2114 deaths which occurred within 1 year of the end of pregnancy where a verbal autopsy interview was conducted from 2000 to 2019.Methods: InterVA5 and InSilicoVA verbal autopsy algorithms were used to attribute the most likely underlying cause of death, which were grouped according to adapted International Classification of Diseases-Maternal Mortality categories. Multinomial regression was used to compare differences in causes of deaths within 42 days versus 43–365 days postpartum adjusting for HDSS and time period (2000–2009 and 2010–2019).Main outcome measures: Cause of death and the verbal autopsy Circumstances of Mortality Categories (COMCATs).Results: Of 2114 deaths, 1212 deaths occurred within 42 days postpartum and 902 between 43 and 365 days postpartum. Compared with deaths within 42 days, deaths from HIV and TB, other infectious diseases, and non-communicable diseases constituted a significantly larger proportion of late pregnancy-related deaths beyond 42 days postpartum, and health system failures were important in the circumstances of those deaths. The contribution of HIV and TB to deaths beyond 42 days postpartum was greatest in Southern Africa. The causes of pregnancy-related mortality within and beyond 42 days postpartum did not change significantly between 2000–2009 and 2010–2019.Conclusions: Cause of death data from the extended postpartum period are critical to inform prevention. The dominance of HIV and TB, other infectious and non-communicable diseases to (late) pregnancy-related mortality highlights the need for better integration of non-obstetric care with ante-, intra- and postpartum care in high-burden settings.
10.	Gaziano, Thomas A., et al. (author) Cardiometabolic risk in a population of older adults with multiple co-morbidities in rural south africa : the HAALSI (Health and Aging in Africa: longitudinal studies of INDEPTH communities) study 2017 In: BMC Public Health. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2458. ; 17 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: A consequence of the widespread uptake of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) is that the older South African population will experience an increase in life expectancy, increasing their risk for cardiometabolic diseases (CMD), and its risk factors. The long-term interactions between HIV infection, treatment, and CMD remain to be elucidated in the African population. The HAALSI cohort was established to investigate the impact of these interactions on CMD morbidity and mortality among middle-aged and older adults. Methods: We recruited randomly selected adults aged 40 or older residing in the rural Agincourt sub-district in Mpumalanga Province. In-person interviews were conducted to collect baseline household and socioeconomic data, self-reported health, anthropometric measures, blood pressure, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), HbA1c, HIV-status, and point-of-care glucose and lipid levels. Results: Five thousand fifty nine persons (46.4% male) were enrolled with a mean age of 61.7 +/- 13.06 years. Waist-to- hip ratio was high for men and women (0.92 +/- 0.08 vs. 0.89 +/- 0.08), with 70% of women and 44% of men being overweight or obese. Blood pressure was similar for men and women with a combined hypertension prevalence of 58.4% and statistically significant increases were observed with increasing age. High total cholesterol prevalence in women was twice that observed for men (8.5 vs. 4.1%). The prevalence of self-reported CMD conditions was higher among women, except for myocardial infarction, and women had a statistically significantly higher prevalence of angina (10.82 vs. 6.97%) using Rose Criteria. The HIV- persons were significantly more likely to have hypertension, diabetes, or be overweight or obese than HIV+ persons. Approximately 56% of the cohort had at least 2 measured or self-reported clinical co-morbidities, with HIV+ persons having a consistently lower prevalence of co-morbidities compared to those without HIV. Absolute 10-year risk cardiovascular risk scores ranged from 7.7-9.7% for women and from 12.5-15.3% for men, depending on the risk score equations used. Conclusions: This cohort has high CMD risk based on both traditional risk factors and novel markers like hsCRP. Longitudinal follow-up of the cohort will allow us to determine the long-term impact of increased lifespan in a population with both high HIV infection and CMD risk.
11.	Gómez-Olivé, F. Xavier, et al. (author) Cohort Profile : Health and Ageing in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) 2018 In: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 47:3, s. 689-690j Journal article (peer-reviewed)
12.	Gomez-Olive, Francesc Xavier, et al. (author) Prevalence of HIV among those 15 and older in rural South Africa 2013 In: AIDS Care. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0954-0121 .- 1360-0451. ; 25:9, s. 1122-1128 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract A greater knowledge of the burden of HIV in rural areas of Southern Africa is needed, especially among older adults. We conducted a cross-sectional biomarker survey in the rural South African Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance site in 2010-2011 and estimated HIV prevalence and risk factors. Using an age-sex stratified random sample of ages 15+, a total of 5037 (65.7%) of a possible 7662 individuals were located and 4362 (86.6%) consented to HIV testing. HIV prevalence was high (19.4%) and characterized by a large gender gap (10.6% for men and 23.9% for women). Rates peaked at 45.3% among men and 46.1% among women - both at ages 35-39. Compared with a similar study in the rural KwaZulu-Natal Province, South Africa, peak prevalence occurred at later ages, and HIV prevalence was higher among older adults - with rates above 15% for men and 10% for women through to age 70. High prevalence continues to characterize Southern Africa, and recent evidence confirms that older adults cannot be excluded from policy considerations. The high prevalence among older adults suggests likely HIV infection at older ages. Prevention activities need to expand to older adults to reduce new infections. Treatment will be complicated by increased risk of noncommunicable diseases and by increasing numbers of older people living with HIV.
13.	Harling, Guy, et al. (author) Interviewer-driven variability in social network reporting : results from health and aging in africa: a longitudinal study of an INDEPTH community (HAALSI) in South Africa 2018 In: Field Methods. - : SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC. - 1525-822X .- 1552-3969. ; 30:2, s. 140-154 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Social network analysis depends on how social ties to others are elicited during interviews, a process easily affected by respondent and interviewer behaviors. We investigate how the number of self-reported important social contacts varied within a single data collection round. Our data come from Health and Aging in Africa: a Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH community (HAALSI), a comprehensive population-based survey of individuals aged 40 years and older conducted over 13 months at the Agincourt health and demographic surveillance site in rural South Africa. As part of HAALSI, interviewers elicited detailed egocentric network data. The average number of contacts reported by the 5,059 respondents both varied significantly across interviewers and fell over time as the data collection progressed, even after adjusting for respondent, interviewer, and respondent-interviewer dyad characteristics. Contact numbers rose substantially after a targeted interviewer intervention. We conclude that checking (and adjusting) for interviewer effects, even within one data collection round, is critical to valid and reliable social network analysis.
14.	Houle, Brian, et al. (author) Hypertension incidence among middle-aged and older adults : findings from a 5-year prospective study in rural South Africa, 2010-2015 2021 In: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 11:12 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Objectives: There is a scarcity of longitudinal cohort studies in sub-Saharan Africa to understand the epidemiology of cardiovascular disease as a basis for intervention. We estimated incident hypertension and associated sociodemographic, health and behavioural risk factors in a population aged 40 years and older over a 5-year period.Design: We assessed the association between incident hypertension and sociodemographic, health and behavioural factors using Poisson regression. We adjusted for non-response in 2015 using inverse probability sampling weights from a logistic regression including sex and age at baseline.Setting: Rural South Africa.Participants: We used a population-based cohort of normotensive adults in 2010 who were aged 40 years and older at retest in 2015.Results: Of 676 individuals completing baseline and 5-year follow-up, there were 193 incident cases of hypertension. The overall hypertension incidence rate was 8.374/100 person-years. In multivariable analyses, those who became hypertensive were more likely to be older, have a high waist circumference (incidence rate ratio (IRR): 1.557, 95% CI: 1.074 to 2.259) and be employed (IRR: 1.579, 95% CI: 1.071 to 2.329) at baseline. Being HIV positive and not on antiretroviral therapy at baseline was associated with lower risk of incident hypertension.Conclusions: Over a 5-year period, 29% of respondents developed hypertension. Given the high burden of hypertension in South Africa, continued longitudinal follow-up is needed to understand the complex interplay of non-communicable and infectious diseases and their underlying and modifiable risk factors to inform public health prevention strategies and programmes.
15.	Houle, Brian, et al. (author) Let's Talk about Sex, Maybe : Interviewers, Respondents, and Sexual Behavior Reporting in Rural South Africa 2016 In: Field Methods. - 1525-822X .- 1552-3969. ; 28:2, s. 112-132 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Researchers are often skeptical of sexual behavior surveys: Respondents may lie or forget details of their intimate lives, and interviewers may exercise authority in how they capture responses. We use data from a 2010-2011 cross-sectional sexual behavior survey in rural South Africa to explore who says what to whom about their sexual lives. Results show an effect of fieldworker age across outcomes: Respondents report safer, more responsible sexual behavior to older fieldworkers, and an effect of fieldworker sex; men report more sexual partners to female fieldworkers. Understanding fieldworker effects on the production of sexual behavior survey data serves methodological and analytical goals.
16.	Houle, Brian, et al. (author) Sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa : trends and comparisons 2018 In: AIDS Care. - : ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD. - 0954-0121 .- 1360-0451. ; 30:11, s. 1435-1443 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract There is limited information about sexual behavior among older Africans, which is problematic given high HIV rates among older adults. We use a population-based survey among people aged 15-80+ to examine the prevalence of sexual risk and protective behaviors in the context of a severe HIV epidemic. We focus on variation across the life course, gender and HIV serostatus to compare the similarities and differences of young, middle aged, and older adults. Younger adults continue to be at risk of HIV, with potential partners being more likely to have been diagnosed with an STI and more likely to have HIV, partner change is high, and condom use is low. Middle aged and older adults engage in sexual behavior that makes them vulnerable at older ages, including extramarital sex, low condom use, and cross-generational sex with people in age groups with the highest rates of HIV. We find insignificant differences between HIV positive and negative adults' reports of recent sexual activity. This study provides new information on sexual behavior and HIV risk across the life course in rural South Africa to inform HIV prevention and treatment programing.
17.	Houle, Brian, et al. (author) Social patterns and differentials in the fertility transition in the context of HIV/AIDS : evidence from population surveillance, rural South Africa, 1993-2013 2016 In: Population Health Metrics. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1478-7954. ; 14 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Literature is limited on the effects of high prevalence HIV on fertility in the absence of treatment, and the effects of the introduction of sustained access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on fertility. We summarize fertility patterns in rural northeast South Africa over 21 years during dynamic social and epidemiological change. Methods: We use data for females aged 15-49 from the Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (1993-2013). We use discrete time event history analysis to summarize patterns in the probability of any birth. Results: Overall fertility declined in 2001-2003, increased in 2004-2011, and then declined in 2012-2013. South Africans showed a similar pattern. Mozambicans showed a different pattern, with strong declines prior to 2003 before stalling during 2004-2007, and then continued fertility decline afterwards. There was an inverse gradient between fertility levels and household socioeconomic status. The gradient did not vary by time or nationality. Conclusions: The fertility transition in rural South Africa shows a pattern of decline until the height of the HIV/AIDS pandemic, with a resulting stall until further decline in the context of ART rollout. Fertility patterns are not homogenous among groups.
18.	Jock, Janet, et al. (author) Effects of pension eligibility expansion on men’s cognitive function : findings from rural South Africa 2023 In: Journal of Aging & Social Policy. - : Routledge. - 0895-9420 .- 1545-0821. Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Two-thirds of people living with Alzheimer’s disease and related dementias (ADRD) live in low- and middle-income countries, and this figure is expected to rise as these populations are rapidly aging. Since evidence demonstrates links between socioeconomic status and slower rates of cognitive decline, protecting older adults’ cognitive function in resource-limited countries that lack the infrastructure to cope with ADRD is crucial to reduce the burden it places on these populations and their health systems. While cash transfers are a promising intervention to promote healthy cognitive aging, factors such as household wealth and level of education often confound the ability to make causal inferences on the impact of cash transfers and cognitive function. This study uses a quasi-experimental design, leveraging an exogenous expansion to the Old Age Pension for men in South Africa, to approximate causal associations with cognitive function. We found evidence that there is a potential benefit of cash transfers at an earlier age for older individuals. As such, transfers such as pensions or other forms of direct basic income transfers may hold promise as potential interventions to promote healthy cognitive aging.
19.	Joubert, Jané, et al. (author) Record-linkage comparison of verbal autopsy and routine civil registration death certification in rural north-east South Africa : 2006-09 2014 In: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 43:6, s. 1945-1958 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: South African civil registration (CR) provides a key data source for local health decision making, and informs the levels and causes of mortality in data-lacking sub-Saharan African countries. We linked mortality data from CR and the Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System (Agincourt HDSS) to examine the quality of rural CR data. Methods: Deterministic and probabilistic techniques were used to link death data from 2006 to 2009. Causes of death were aggregated into the WHO Mortality Tabulation List 1 and a locally relevant short list of 15 causes. The matching rate was compared with informant-reported death registration. Using the VA diagnoses as reference, misclassification patterns, sensitivity, positive predictive values and cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) were calculated for the short list. Results: A matching rate of 61% [95% confidence interval (CI): 59.2 to 62.3] was attained, lower than the informant-reported registration rate of 85% (CI: 83.4 to 85.8). For the 2264 matched cases, cause agreement was 15% (kappa 0.1083, CI: 0.0995 to 0.1171) for the WHO list, and 23% (kappa 0.1631, CI: 0.1511 to 0.1751) for the short list. CSMFs were significantly different for all but four (tuberculosis, cerebrovascular disease, other heart disease, and ill-defined natural) of the 15 causes evaluated. Conclusion: Despite data limitations, it is feasible to link official CR and HDSS verbal autopsy data. Data linkage proved a promising method to provide empirical evidence about the quality and utility of rural CR mortality data. Agreement of individual causes of death was low but, at the population level, careful interpretation of the CR data can assist health prioritization and planning.
20.	Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W., et al. (author) Assessing Changes in Household Socioeconomic Status in Rural South Africa, 2001-2013 : A Distributional Analysis Using Household Asset Indicators 2017 In: Social Indicators Research. - : Springer. - 0303-8300 .- 1573-0921. ; 133:3, s. 1047-1073 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Understanding the distribution of socioeconomic status (SES) and its temporal dynamics within a population is critical to ensure that policies and interventions adequately and equitably contribute to the well-being and life chances of all individuals. This study assesses the dynamics of SES in a typical rural South African setting over the period 2001-2013 using data on household assets from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System. Three SES indices, an absolute index, principal component analysis index and multiple correspondence analysis index, are constructed from the household asset indicators. Relative distribution methods are then applied to the indices to assess changes over time in the distribution of SES with special focus on location and shape shifts. Results show that the proportion of households that own assets associated with greater modern wealth has substantially increased over time. In addition, relative distributions in all three indices show that the median SES index value has shifted up and the distribution has become less polarized and is converging towards the middle. However, the convergence is larger from the upper tail than from the lower tail, which suggests that the improvement in SES has been slower for poorer households. The results also show persistent ethnic differences in SES with households of former Mozambican refugees being at a disadvantage. From a methodological perspective, the study findings demonstrate the comparability of the easy-to-compute absolute index to other SES indices constructed using more advanced statistical techniques in assessing household SES.
21.	Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W., et al. (author) Evaluation of record linkage of mortality data between a health and demographic surveillance system and national civil registration system in South Africa 2014 In: Population Health Metrics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1478-7954. ; 12 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) collect independent mortality data that could be used for assessing the quality of mortality data in national civil registration (CR) systems in low- and middle-income countries. However, the use of HDSS data for such purposes depends on the quality of record linkage between the two data sources. We describe and evaluate the quality of record linkage between HDSS and CR mortality data in South Africa with HDSS data from Agincourt HDSS. Methods: We applied deterministic and probabilistic record linkage approaches to mortality records from 2006 to 2009 from the Agincourt HDSS and those in the CR system. Quality of the matches generated by the probabilistic approach was evaluated using sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV) calculated from a subset of records that were linked using national identity number. Matched and unmatched records from the Agincourt HDSS were compared to identify characteristics associated with successful matching. In addition, the distribution of background characteristics in all deaths that occurred in 2009 and those linked to CR records was compared to assess systematic bias in the resulting record-linked dataset in the latest time period. Results: Deterministic and probabilistic record linkage approaches combined linked a total of 2264 out of 3726 (60.8%) mortality records from the Agincourt HDSS to those in the CR system. Probabilistic approaches independently linked 1969 (87.0%) of the linked records. In a subset of 708 records that were linked using national identity number, the probabilistic approaches yielded sensitivity of 90.0% and PPV of 98.5%. Records belonging to more vulnerable people, including poorer persons, young children, and non-South Africans were less likely to be matched. Nevertheless, distribution of most background characteristics was similar between all Agincourt HDSS deaths and those matched to CR records in the latest time period. Conclusion: This study shows that record linkage of mortality data from HDSS and CR systems is possible and can be useful in South Africa. The study identifies predictors for death registration and data items and registration system characteristics that could be improved to achieve more optimal future matching possibilities.
22.	Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W., et al. (author) Progression of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African setting : findings from population surveillance in Agincourt, 1993-2013 2017 In: BMC Public Health. - : BIOMED CENTRAL LTD. - 1471-2458. ; 17 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Virtually all low-and middle-income countries are undergoing an epidemiological transition whose progression is more varied than experienced in high-income countries. Observed changes in mortality and disease patterns reveal that the transition in most low-and middle-income countries is characterized by reversals, partial changes and the simultaneous occurrence of different types of diseases of varying magnitude. Localized characterization of this shifting burden, frequently lacking, is essential to guide decentralised health and social systems on the effective targeting of limited resources. Based on a rigorous compilation of mortality data over two decades, this paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the epidemiological transition in a rural South African population. Methods: We estimate overall and cause-specific hazards of death as functions of sex, age and time period from mortality data from the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System and conduct statistical tests of changes and differentials to assess the progression of the epidemiological transition over the period 1993-2013. Results: From the early 1990s until 2007 the population experienced a reversal in its epidemiological transition, driven mostly by increased HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. In recent years, the transition is following a positive trajectory as a result of declining HIV/AIDS and TB related mortality. However, in most age groups the cause of death distribution is yet to reach the levels it occupied in the early 1990s. The transition is also characterized by persistent gender differences with more rapid positive progression in females than males. Conclusions: This typical rural South African population is experiencing a protracted epidemiological transition. The intersection and interaction of HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment, non-communicable disease risk factors and complex social and behavioral changes will impact on continued progress in reducing preventable mortality and improving health across the life course. Integrated healthcare planning and program delivery is required to improve access and adherence for HIV and non-communicable disease treatment. These findings from a local, rural setting over an extended period contribute to the evidence needed to inform further refinement and advancement of epidemiological transition theory.
23.	Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W., et al. (author) Socioeconomic differences in mortality in the antiretroviral therapy era in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 2001-13 : a population surveillance analysis 2017 In: The Lancet Global Health. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 2214-109X. ; 5:9, s. E924-E935 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background Understanding the effects of socioeconomic disparities in health outcomes is important to implement specific preventive actions. We assessed socioeconomic disparities in mortality indicators in a rural South African population over the period 2001-13.Methods We used data from 21 villages of the Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). We calculated the probabilities of death from birth to age 5 years and from age 15 to 60 years, life expectancy at birth, and cause-specific and age-specific mortality by sex (not in children <5 years), time period, and socioeconomic status (household wealth) quintile for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis, other communicable diseases (excluding HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis) and maternal, perinatal, and nutritional causes, non-communicable diseases, and injury. We also quantified differences with relative risk ratios and relative and slope indices of inequality.Findings Between 2001 and 2013, 10 414 deaths were registered over 1 058 538 person-years of follow-up, meaning the overall crude mortality was 9.8 deaths per 1000 person-years. We found significant socioecomonic status gradients for mortality and life expectancy at birth, with outcomes improving with increasing socioeconomic status. An inverse relation was seen for HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality and socioeconomic status that persisted from 2001 to 2013. Deaths from non-communicable diseases increased over time in both sexes, and injury was an important cause of death in men and boys. Neither of these causes of death, however, showed consistent significant associations with household socioeconomic status.Interpretation The poorest people in the population continue to bear a high burden of HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis mortality, despite free antiretroviral therapy being made available from public health facilities. Associations between socioeconomic status and increasing burden of mortality from non-communicable diseases is likely to become prominent. Integrated strategies are needed to improve access to and uptake of HIV testing, care, and treatment, and management of non-communicable diseases in the poorest populations.
24.	Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W., et al. (author) The promise of record linkage for assessing the uptake of health services in resource constrained settings : a pilot study from South Africa 2014 In: BMC Medical Research Methodology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2288. ; 14 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSS) have been instrumental in advancing population and health research in low-and middle-income countries where vital registration systems are often weak. However, the utility of HDSS would be enhanced if their databases could be linked with those of local health facilities. We assess the feasibility of record linkage in rural South Africa using data from the Agincourt HDSS and a local health facility. Methods: Using a gold standard dataset of 623 record pairs matched by means of fingerprints, we evaluate twenty record linkage scenarios (involving different identifiers, string comparison techniques and with and without clerical review) based on the Fellegi-Sunter probabilistic record linkage model. Matching rates and quality are measured by their sensitivity and positive predictive value (PPV). Background characteristics of matched and unmatched cases are compared to assess systematic bias in the resulting record-linked dataset. Results: A hybrid approach of deterministic followed by probabilistic record linkage, and scenarios that use an extended set of identifiers including another household member's first name yield the best results. The best fully automated record linkage scenario has a sensitivity of 83.6% and PPV of 95.1%. The sensitivity and PPV increase to 84.3% and 96.9%, respectively, when clerical review is undertaken on 10% of the record pairs. The likelihood of being linked is significantly lower for females, non-South Africans and the elderly. Conclusion: Using records matched by means of fingerprints as the gold standard, we have demonstrated the feasibility of fully automated probabilistic record linkage using identifiers that are routinely collected in health facilities in South Africa. Our study also shows that matching statistics can be improved if other identifiers (e.g., another household member's first name) are added to the set of matching variables, and, to a lesser extent, with clerical review. Matching success is, however, correlated with background characteristics that are indicative of the instability of personal attributes over time (e.g., surname in the case of women) or with misreporting (e.g., age).
25.	Kabudula, Chodziwadziwa W, et al. (author) Two decades of mortality change in rural northeast South Africa 2014 In: Global Health Action. - : CoAction Publishing. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 7, s. 25596- Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: The MRC/Wits University Agincourt research centre, part of the INDEPTH Network, has documented mortality in a defined population in the rural northeast of South Africa for 20 years (1992-2011) using long-term health and socio-demographic surveillance. Detail on the unfolding, at times unpredicted, mortality pattern has been published. This experience is reviewed here and updated using more recent data.OBJECTIVE: To present a review and summary of mortality patterns across all age-sex groups in the Agincourt sub-district population for the period 1992-2011 as a comprehensive basis for public health action.DESIGN: Vital events in the Agincourt population have been updated in annual surveys undertaken since 1992. All deaths have been rigorously recorded and followed by verbal autopsy interviews. Responses to questions from these interviews have been processed retrospectively using the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy standard and the InterVA-4 model for assigning causes of death in a standardised manner.RESULTS: Between 1992 and 2011, a total of 12,209 deaths were registered over 1,436,195 person-years of follow-up, giving a crude mortality rate of 8.5 per 1,000 person-years. During the 20-year period, the population experienced a major HIV epidemic, which resulted in more than doubling of overall mortality for an extended period. Recent years show signs of declining mortality, but levels remain above the 1992 baseline recorded using the surveillance system.CONCLUSIONS: The Agincourt population has experienced a major mortality shock over the past two decades from which it will take time to recover. The basic epidemic patterns are consistent with generalised mortality patterns observed in South Africa as a whole, but the detailed individual surveillance behind these analyses allows finer-grained analyses of specific causes, age-related risks, and trends over time. These demonstrate the complex, somewhat unpredicted course of mortality transition over the years since the dawn of South Africa's democratic era in 1994.
26.	Kahn, Kathleen, et al. (author) Profile : Agincourt Health and Socio-demographic Surveillance System 2012 In: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 41:4, s. 988-1001 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The Agincourt health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS), located in rural northeast South Africa close to the Mozambique border, was established in 1992 to support district health systems development led by the post-apartheid ministry of health. The HDSS (90 000 people), based on an annual update of resident status and vital events, now supports multiple investigations into the causes and consequences of complex health, population and social transitions. Observational work includes cohorts focusing on different stages along the life course, evaluation of national policy at population, household and individual levels and examination of household responses to shocks and stresses and the resulting pathways influencing health and well-being. Trials target children and adolescents, including promoting psycho-social well-being, preventing HIV transmission and reducing metabolic disease risk. Efforts to enhance the research platform include using automated measurement techniques to estimate cause of death by verbal autopsy, full 'reconciliation' of in- and out-migrations, follow-up of migrants departing the study area, recording of extra-household social connections and linkage of individual HDSS records with those from sub-district clinics. Fostering effective collaborations (including INDEPTH multi-centre work in adult health and ageing and migration and urbanization), ensuring cross-site compatibility of common variables and optimizing public access to HDSS data are priorities.
27.	Lippman, Sheri A, et al. (author) A community mobilisation intervention to improve engagement in HIV testing, linkage to care, and retention in care in South Africa : a cluster-randomised controlled trial 2022 In: The Lancet HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2405-4704 .- 2352-3018. ; 9:9, s. e617-e626 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Community mobilisation, engaging communities in a process to collectively enact change, could improve HIV testing and care engagement. In South Africa, current rates fall below those needed for epidemic control. We assessed whether community mobilisation increased HIV testing, linkage to care, and retention in care over time in intervention relative to control communities.Methods: We conducted a cluster-randomised controlled trial in villages in the Agincourt sub-district of the rural Mpumalanga Province in South Africa. 15 villages were randomly assigned to either a community mobilisation intervention engaging residents to address social barriers to HIV testing and treatment (intervention arm) or to a control arm using balanced randomisation. Villages were eligible if they had been fully enumerated in 2014, had not been included in previous mobilisation activities, and included over 500 permanent adult residents aged 18–49 years. Primary outcomes included quarterly rates of HIV testing, linkage to care, and retention in care documented from health facility records among residents of the intervention and control communities over the 3-year study period. Intention-to-treat analyses employed generalised estimating equations stratified by sex. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02197793.Findings: Between Aug 1, 2015, and July 31, 2018, residents in eight intervention communities (n=20 544 residents) and seven control communities (n=17 848) contributed data; 92 residents contributed to both arms. Among men, HIV testing increased quarterly by 12·1% (relative change [RC] 1·121, 95% CI 1·099 to 1·143, p<0·0001) in the intervention communities and 9·5% (1·095, 1·075 to 1·114, p=0·011) in the control communities; although increases in testing were greater in the intervention villages, differences did not reach significance (exponentiated interaction coefficient 1·024, 95% CI 0·997 to 1·052, p=0·078). Among women, HIV testing increased quarterly by 10·6% (RC 1·106, 95% CI 1·097 to 1·114, p<0·0001) in the intervention communities and 9·3% (1·093, 1·084 to 1·102, p=0·053) in the control communities; increases were greater in intervention communities (exponentiated interaction coefficient 1·012, 95% CI 1·001 to 1·023, p=0·043). Quarterly linkage increased significantly among women in the intervention communities (RC 1·013, 95% CI 1·002 to 1·023, p=0·018) only. Quarterly linkage fell among men in both arms, but decreased significantly among men in the control communities (0·977, 0·954 to 1·002, p=0·043). Quarterly retention fell among women in both arms; however, reductions were tempered among women in the intervention communities (exponentiated interaction coefficient 1·003, 95% CI <1·000 to 1·006, p=0·062). Retention fell significantly among men in both arms with difference in rates of decline.Interpretation: Community mobilisation was associated with modest improvements in select trial outcomes. The sum of these incremental, quarterly improvements achieved by addressing social barriers to HIV care engagement can impact epidemic control. However, achieving optimal impacts will probably require integrated efforts addressing both social barriers through community mobilisation and provision of improved service delivery.
28.	Lippman, Sheri A., et al. (author) Evaluation of the Tsima community mobilization intervention to improve engagement in HIV testing and care in South Africa : study protocol for a cluster randomized trial 2017 In: Implementation Science. - : BIOMED CENTRAL LTD. - 1748-5908. ; 12:9 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: HIV transmission can be decreased substantially by reducing the burden of undiagnosed HIV infection and expanding early and consistent use of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Treatment as prevention (TasP) has been proposed as key to ending the HIV epidemic. To activate TasP in high prevalence countries, like South Africa, communities must be motivated to know their status, engage in care, and remain in care. Community mobilization (CM) has the potential to significantly increase uptake testing, linkage to and retention in care by addressing the primary social barriers to engagement with HIV care-including poor understanding of HIV care; fear and stigma associated with infection, clinic attendance and disclosure; lack of social support; and gender norms that deter men from accessing care. Methods/design: Using a cluster randomized trial design, we are implementing a 3-year-theory-based CM intervention and comparing gains in HIV testing, linkage, and retention in care among individuals residing in 8 intervention communities to that of individuals residing in 7 control communities. Eligible communities include 15 villages within a health and demographic surveillance site (HDSS) in rural Mpumalanga, South Africa, that were not exposed to previous CM efforts. CM activities conducted in the 8 intervention villages map onto six mobilization domains that comprise the key components for community mobilization around HIV prevention. To evaluate the intervention, we will link a clinic-based electronic clinical tracking system in all area clinics to the HDSS longitudinal census data, thus creating an open, population-based cohort with over 30,000 18-49-year-old residents. We will estimate the marginal effect of the intervention on individual outcomes using generalized estimating equations. In addition, we will evaluate CM processes by conducting baseline and endline surveys among a random sample of 1200 community residents at each time point to monitor intervention exposure and community level change using validated measures of CM. Discussion: Given the known importance of community social factors with regard to uptake of testing and HIV care, and the lack of rigorously evaluated community-level interventions effective in improving testing uptake, linkage and retention, the proposed study will yield much needed data to understand the potential of CM to improve the prevention and care cascade. Further, our work in developing a CM framework and domain measures will permit validation of a CM conceptual framework and process, which should prove valuable for community programming in Africa.
29.	Mee, Paul, et al. (author) Changing use of traditional healthcare amongst those dying of HIV related disease and TB in rural South Africa from 2003 - 2011 : a retrospective cohort study 2014 In: BMC Complementary and Alternative Medicine. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1472-6882. ; 14:1 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: In 2011 there were 5.5 million HIV infected people in South Africa and 71% of those requiring antiretroviral therapy (ART) received it. The effective integration of traditional medical practitioners and biomedical providers in HIV prevention and care has been demonstrated. However concerns remain that the use of traditional treatments for HIV-related disease may lead to pharmacokinetic interactions between herbal remedies and ART drugs and delay ART initiation. Here we analyse the changing prevalence and determinants of traditional healthcare use amongst those dying of HIV-related disease, pulmonary tuberculosis and other causes in a rural South African community between 2003 and 2011. ART was made available in this area in the latter part of this period.METHODS: Data was collected during household visits and verbal autopsy interviews. InterVA-4 was used to assign causes of death. Spatial analyses of the distribution of traditional healthcare use were performed. Logistic regression models were developed to test associations of determinants with traditional healthcare use.RESULTS: There were 5929 deaths in the study population of which 47.7% were caused by HIV-related disease or pulmonary tuberculosis (HIV/AIDS and TB). Traditional healthcare use declined for all deaths, with higher levels throughout for those dying of HIV/AIDS and TB than for those dying of other causes. In 2003-2005, sole use of biomedical treatment was reported for 18.2% of HIV/AIDS and TB deaths and 27.2% of other deaths, by 2008-2011 the figures were 49.9% and 45.3% respectively. In bivariate analyses, higher traditional healthcare use was associated with Mozambican origin, lower education levels, death in 2003-2005 compared to the later time periods, longer illness duration and moderate increases in prior household mortality. In the multivariate model only country of origin, time period and illness duration remained associated.CONCLUSIONS: There were large decreases in reported traditional healthcare use and increases in the sole use of biomedical treatment amongst those dying of HIV/AIDS and TB. No associations between socio-economic position, age or gender and the likelihood of traditional healthcare use were seen. Further qualitative and quantitative studies are needed to assess whether these figures reflect trends in healthcare use amongst the entire population and the reasons for the temporal changes identified.
30.	Mee, Paul, et al. (author) Determinants of the risk of dying of HIV/AIDS in a rural South African community over the period of the decentralised roll-out of antiretroviral therapy : a longitudinal study 2014 In: Global Health Action. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 7 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) has significantly reduced HIV mortality in South Africa. The benefits have not been experienced by all groups. Here we investigate the factors associated with these inequities.DESIGN: This study was located in a rural South African setting and used data collected from 2007 to 2010, the period when decentralised ART became available. Approximately one-third of the population were of Mozambican origin. There was a pattern of repeated circular migration between urban areas and this community. Survival analysis models were developed to identify demographic, socioeconomic, and spatial risk factors for HIV mortality.RESULTS: Among the study population of 105,149 individuals, there were 2,890 deaths. The HIV/TB mortality rate decreased by 27% between 2007-2008 and 2009-2010. For other causes of death, the reduction was 10%. Bivariate analysis found that the HIV/TB mortality risk was lower for: those living within 5 km of the Bhubezi Community Health Centre; women; young adults; in-migrants with a longer period of residence; permanent residents; and members of households owning motorised transport, holding higher socioeconomic positions, and with higher levels of education. Multivariate modelling showed, in addition, that those with South Africa as their country of origin had an increased risk of HIV/TB mortality compared to those with Mozambican origins. For males, those of South African origin, and recent in-migrants, the risk of death associated with HIV/TB was significantly greater than that due to other causes.CONCLUSIONS: In this community, a combination of factors was associated with an increased risk of dying of HIV/TB over the period of the roll-out of ART. There is evidence for the presence of barriers to successful treatment for particular sub-groups in the population, which must be addressed if the recent improvements in population-level mortality are to be maintained.
31.	Mee, Paul, et al. (author) The development of a localised HIV epidemic and the associated excess mortality burden in a rural area of South Africa 2016 In: Global Health, Epidemiology and Genomics. - : Hindawi Limited. - 2054-4200. ; 1:e7 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in South Africa rapidly developed into a major pandemic. Here we analyse the development of the epidemic in a rural area of the country. The data used were collected between 1992 and 2013 in a longitudinal population survey, the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance Study, in the northeast of the country. Throughout the period of study mortality rates were similar in all villages, suggesting that there were multiple index cases evenly spread geographically. These were likely to have been returning migrant workers. For those aged below 39 years the HIV mortality rate was higher for women, above this age it was higher for men. This indicates the protective effect of greater access to HIV testing and treatment among older women. The recent convergence of mortality rates for Mozambicans and South Africans indicates that the former refugee population are being assimilated into the host community. More than 60% of the deaths occurring in this community between 1992 and 2013 could be attributed directly or indirectly to HIV. Recently there has been an increasing level of non-HIV mortality which has important implications for local healthcare provision. This study demonstrates how evidence from longitudinal analyses can support healthcare planning.
32.	Payne, Collin F., et al. (author) Prevalence and correlates of frailty in an older rural African population : findings from the HAALSI cohort study 2017 In: BMC Geriatrics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-2318. ; 17 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Frailty is a key predictor of death and dependency, yet little is known about frailty in sub-Saharan Africa despite rapid population ageing. We describe the prevalence and correlates of phenotypic frailty using data from the Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of an INDEPTH Community cohort.Methods: We analysed data from rural South Africans aged 40 and over. We used low grip strength, slow gait speed, low body mass index, and combinations of self-reported exhaustion, decline in health, low physical activity and high self-reported sedentariness to derive nine variants of a phenotypic frailty score. Each frailty category was compared with self-reported health, subjective wellbeing, impairment in activities of daily living and the presence of multimorbidity. Cox regression analyses were used to compare subsequent all-cause mortality for non-frail (score 0), pre-frail (score 1–2) and frail participants (score 3+).Results: Five thousand fifty nine individuals (mean age 61.7 years, 2714 female) were included in the analyses. The nine frailty score variants yielded a range of frailty prevalences (5.4% to 13.2%). For all variants, rates were higher in women than in men, and rose steeply with age. Frailty was associated with worse subjective wellbeing, and worse self-reported health. Both prefrailty and frailty were associated with a higher risk of death during a mean 17 month follow up for all score variants (hazard ratios 1.29 to 2.41 for pre-frail vs non-frail; hazard ratios 2.65 to 8.91 for frail vs non-frail).Conclusions: Phenotypic frailty could be measured in this older South African population, and was associated with worse health, wellbeing and earlier death.
33.	Reniers, Georges, et al. (author) Data Resource Profile : Network for Analysing Longitudinal Population-based HIV/AIDS data on Africa (ALPHA Network) 2016 In: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 45:1, s. 83-93 Journal article (peer-reviewed)
34.	Rohr, Julia K., et al. (author) HIV treatment cascade for older adults in rural South Africa 2020 In: Sexually Transmitted Infections. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1368-4973 .- 1472-3263. ; 96:4, s. 271-276 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Objectives: The HIV treatment cascade is a powerful framework for understanding progress from initial diagnosis to successful treatment. Data sources for cascades vary and often are based on clinical cohorts, population cohorts linked to clinics, or self-reported information. We use both biomarkers and self-reported data from a large population-based cohort of older South Africans to establish the first HIV cascade for this growing segment of the HIV-positive population and compare results using the different data sources.Methods: Data came from the Health and Aging in Africa: A Longitudinal Study of an INDEPTH Community in South Africa (HAALSI) 2015 baseline survey of 5059 adults aged 40+ years. Dried blood spots (DBS) were screened for HIV, antiretroviral drugs and viral load. In-home surveys asked about HIV testing, diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) use. We calculated proportions and CIs for each stage of the cascade, conditional on attainment of the previous stage, using (1) biomarkers, (2) self-report and (3) both biomarkers and self-report, and compared with UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets.Results: 4560 participants had DBS results, among whom 1048 (23%) screened HIV-positive and comprised the denominator for each cascade. The biomarker cascade showed 63% (95% CI 60 to 66) on ART and 72% (95% CI 69 to 76) of those on ART with viral suppression. Self-reports underestimated testing, diagnosis and ART, with only 47% (95% CI 44 to 50) of HIV-positive individuals reporting ART use. The combined cascade indicated high HIV testing (89% (95% CI 87 to 91)), but lower knowledge of HIV-positive status (71% (95% CI 68 to 74)).Conclusions: Older South Africans need repeated HIV testing and sustained ART to reach 90-90-90 targets. HIV cascades relying on self-reports are likely to underestimate true cascade attainment, and biomarkers provide substantial improvements to cascade estimates.
35.	Rosenberg, Molly S., et al. (author) Sexual Behaviors and HIV Status : A Population-Based Study Among Older Adults in Rural South Africa 2017 In: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. - 1525-4135 .- 1944-7884. ; 74:1, s. E9-E17 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Objective: To identify the unmet needs for HIV prevention among older adults in rural South Africa.Methods: We analyzed data from a population-based sample of 5059 men and women aged 40 years and older from the study Health and Aging in Africa: Longitudinal Studies of INDEPTH Communities (HAALSI), which was carried out in the Agincourt health and sociodemographic surveillance system in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa. We estimated the prevalence of HIV (laboratory-confirmed and self-reported) and key sexual behaviors by age and sex. We compared sexual behavior profiles across HIV status categories with and without age–sex standardization.Results: HIV prevalence was very high among HAALSI participants (23%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 21 to 24), with no sex differences. Recent sexual activity was common (56%, 95% CI: 55 to 58) across all HIV status categories. Condom use was low among HIV-negative adults (15%, 95% CI: 14 to 17), higher among HIV-positive adults who were unaware of their HIV status (27%, 95% CI: 22 to 33), and dramatically higher among HIV-positive adults who were aware of their status (75%, 95% CI: 70 to 80). Casual sex and multiple partnerships were reported at moderate levels, with slightly higher estimates among HIV-positive compared to HIV-negative adults. Differences by HIV status remained after age–sex standardization.Conclusions: Older HIV-positive adults in an HIV hyperendemic community of rural South Africa report sexual behaviors consistent with high HIV transmission risk. Older HIV-negative adults report sexual behaviors consistent with high HIV acquisition risk. Prevention initiatives tailored to the particular prevention needs of older adults are urgently needed to reduce HIV risk in this and similar communities in sub-Saharan Africa.
36.	Rosenberg, Molly, et al. (author) The impact of a randomized cash transfer intervention on mortality of adult household members in rural South Africa, 2011–2022 2023 In: Social Science and Medicine. - : Elsevier. - 0277-9536 .- 1873-5347. ; 324 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Increasing socioeconomic resources through cash transfer payments could help promote healthy longevity. However, research in this area is limited due to endogeneity in cash transfer exposures and limited geographic representation.Methods: We leveraged the HPTN 068 randomized cash transfer trial, conducted from 2011 to 2015 in a rural setting in South Africa. We assessed long-term mortality follow-up (until March 2022) on older adult members (n = 3568) of households enrolled in the trial from the complete Agincourt Health and socio-Demographic Surveillance System census of the underlying source population. The trial intervention was a monthly cash payment of 300 Rand conditional on school enrollment of index young women. The payments were split between the young woman (1/3) and their caregiver (2/3). Young women and their households were randomized 1:1 to intervention vs. control. We used Cox PH models to compare mortality rates in older adults living in intervention vs. control households.Findings: The cash transfer intervention did not significantly impact mortality in the full sample [HR (95% CI): 0.94 (0.80, 1.10)]. However, we observed strong protective effects of the cash transfer intervention among those with above-median household assets [HR (95% CI): 0.66 (0.50, 0.86)] and higher educational attainment [HR (95% CI): 0.37 (0.15, 0.93)].Interpretation: Our findings indicate that short-term cash transfers can lead to reduced mortality in certain subgroups of older adults with higher baseline socioeconomic status. Future work should focus on understanding the optimal timing, structure, and targets to maximize the benefits of cash transfer programs in promoting healthy aging and longevity.
37.	Stoner, Marie C. D., et al. (author) The effects of participation in an intensive HIV prevention trial on long-term socio-demographic outcomes among young women in rural South Africa 2023 In: Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 1525-4135 .- 1944-7884. ; 93:1, s. 1-6 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Research trial participation may influence health outcomes regardless of the intervention assigned, but is often not assessed.Setting: We investigated how participation in an HIV prevention trial (the HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 068 study) affected health outcomes 4 years after the study in adolescent girls and young women in South Africa beyond effects of the tested intervention.Methods: We developed an analytical cohort that included the HIV Prevention 068 trial (HPTN 068) trial participants from the Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System and resembled HPTN 068 trial enrollees (aged 13-20 years and in grades 8-11 in 2011) using inverse probability of treatment weights. We estimated risk differences for the association between trial participation and education and early parity (age <20 years) in 2019, after accounting for differences at baseline between the trial participants and nonparticipants.Results: There were 3442 young women enrolled in grades 8-11 in 2011; 1669 were in the HPTN 068 trial. Trial participants were more likely to have completed secondary school by 2019 (adjusted RD (aRD) 5.0%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2%, 7.9%; 82.3% in trial participants vs. 77.2% in nonparticipants). Trial participants had similar risk of parity before age 20 compared with nontrial participants (aRD 2.3%, 95% CI: -0.8%, 5.5%).Conclusions: Trial participation did not seem to influence early parity, but did increase educational attainment. Our results are compatible with an explanation of Hawthorne effects from trial participation on schooling behaviors that were small, but observable even 4 years after the end of the trial.
38.	Streatfield, P. Kim, et al. (author) Cause-specific childhood mortality in Africa and Asia : evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites 2014 In: Global Health Action. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 7 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Childhood mortality, particularly in the first 5 years of life, is a major global concern and the target of Millennium Development Goal 4. Although the majority of childhood deaths occur in Africa and Asia, these are also the regions where such deaths are least likely to be registered. The INDEPTH Network works to alleviate this problem by collating detailed individual data from defined Health and Demographic Surveillance sites. By registering deaths and carrying out verbal autopsies to determine cause of death across many such sites, using standardised methods, the Network seeks to generate population-based mortality statistics that are not otherwise available.OBJECTIVE: To present a description of cause-specific mortality rates and fractions over the first 15 years of life as documented by INDEPTH Network sites in sub-Saharan Africa and south-east Asia.DESIGN: All childhood deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with verbal autopsy (VA) interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provided person-time denominators for mortality rates. Cause-specific mortality rates and cause-specific mortality fractions are presented according to WHO 2012 VA cause groups for neonatal, infant, 1-4 year and 5-14 year age groups.RESULTS: A total of 28,751 childhood deaths were documented during 4,387,824 person-years over 18 sites. Infant mortality ranged from 11 to 78 per 1,000 live births, with under-5 mortality from 15 to 152 per 1,000 live births. Sites in Vietnam and Kenya accounted for the lowest and highest mortality rates reported.CONCLUSIONS: Many children continue to die from relatively preventable causes, particularly in areas with high rates of malaria and HIV/AIDS. Neonatal mortality persists at relatively high, and perhaps sometimes under-documented, rates. External causes of death are a significant childhood problem in some settings.
39.	Streatfield, P. Kim, et al. (author) Malaria mortality in Africa and Asia : evidence from INDEPTH health and demographic surveillance system sites 2014 In: Global Health Action. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 7, s. 25369- Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Malaria continues to be a major cause of infectious disease mortality in tropical regions. However, deaths from malaria are most often not individually documented, and as a result overall understanding of malaria epidemiology is inadequate. INDEPTH Network members maintain population surveillance in Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites across Africa and Asia, in which individual deaths are followed up with verbal autopsies.OBJECTIVE: To present patterns of malaria mortality determined by verbal autopsy from INDEPTH sites across Africa and Asia, comparing these findings with other relevant information on malaria in the same regions.DESIGN: From a database covering 111,910 deaths over 12,204,043 person-years in 22 sites, in which verbal autopsy data were handled according to the WHO 2012 standard and processed using the InterVA-4 model, over 6,000 deaths were attributed to malaria. The overall period covered was 1992-2012, but two-thirds of the observations related to 2006-2012. These deaths were analysed by site, time period, age group and sex to investigate epidemiological differences in malaria mortality.RESULTS: Rates of malaria mortality varied by 1:10,000 across the sites, with generally low rates in Asia (one site recording no malaria deaths over 0.5 million person-years) and some of the highest rates in West Africa (Nouna, Burkina Faso: 2.47 per 1,000 person-years). Childhood malaria mortality rates were strongly correlated with Malaria Atlas Project estimates of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rates for the same locations. Adult malaria mortality rates, while lower than corresponding childhood rates, were strongly correlated with childhood rates at the site level.CONCLUSIONS: The wide variations observed in malaria mortality, which were nevertheless consistent with various other estimates, suggest that population-based registration of deaths using verbal autopsy is a useful approach to understanding the details of malaria epidemiology.
40.	Streatfield, P Kim, et al. (author) Mortality from external causes in Africa and Asia : evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System Sites 2014 In: Global Health Action. - : CoAction Publishing. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 7 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract BACKGROUND: Mortality from external causes, of all kinds, is an important component of overall mortality on a global basis. However, these deaths, like others in Africa and Asia, are often not counted or documented on an individual basis. Overviews of the state of external cause mortality in Africa and Asia are therefore based on uncertain information. The INDEPTH Network maintains longitudinal surveillance, including cause of death, at population sites across Africa and Asia, which offers important opportunities to document external cause mortality at the population level across a range of settings.OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of mortality from external causes at INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories.DESIGN: All deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates.RESULTS: A total of 5,884 deaths due to external causes were documented over 11,828,253 person-years. Approximately one-quarter of those deaths were to children younger than 15 years. Causes of death were dominated by childhood drowning in Bangladesh, and by transport-related deaths and intentional injuries elsewhere. Detailed mortality rates are presented by cause of death, age group, and sex.CONCLUSIONS: The patterns of external cause mortality found here generally corresponded with expectations and other sources of information, but they fill some important gaps in population-based mortality data. They provide an important source of information to inform potentially preventive intervention designs.
41.	Thsehla, Evelyn, et al. (author) Indirect effects of COVID-19 on maternal and child health in South Africa 2023 In: Global Health Action. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 16:1 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: The unfinished burden of poor maternal and child health contributes to the quadruple burden of disease in South Africa with the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic yet to be fully documented.Objective: To investigate the indirect effects of COVID-19 on maternal and child health in different geographical regions and relative wealth quintiles.Methods: We estimated the effects of COVID-19 on maternal and child health from April 2020 to June 2021. We estimated this by calculating mean changes across facilities, relative wealth index (RWI) quintiles, geographical areas and provinces. To account for confounding by underlying seasonal or linear trends, we subsequently fitted a segmented fixed effect panel model.Results: A total of 4956 public sector facilities were included in the analysis. Between April and September 2020, full immunisation and first dose of measles declined by 6.99% and 2.44%, respectively. In the follow-up months, measles first dose increased by 4.88% while full immunisation remained negative (−0.65%) especially in poorer quintiles. At facility level, the mean change in incidence and mortality due to pneumonia, diarrhoea and severe acute malnutrition was negative. Change in first antenatal visits, delivery by 15–19-year olds, delivery by C-section and maternal mortality was positive but not significant.Conclusion: COVID-19 disrupted utilisation of child health services. While reduction in child health services at the start of the pandemic was followed by an increase in subsequent months, the recovery was not uniform across different quintiles and geographical areas. This study highlights the disproportionate impact of the pandemic and the need for targeted interventions to improve utilisation of health services.
42.	Wade, Alisha N, et al. (author) Multimorbidity and mortality in an older, rural black South African population cohort with high prevalence of HIV findings from the HAALSI Study 2021 In: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 11:9 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Objectives: Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in high-income countries. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between multimorbidity (≥2 of the following chronic medical conditions: hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, anaemia, HIV, angina, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, alcohol dependence) and all-cause mortality in an older, rural black South African population. We further investigated the relationship between HIV multimorbidity (HIV as part of the multimorbidity cluster) and mortality, while testing for the effect of frailty in all models.Design: Population cohort study.Setting: Agincourt subdistrict of Mpumalanga province, South Africa.Participants: 4455 individuals (54.7% female), aged ≥40 years (median age 61 years, IQR 52-71) and resident in the study area.Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcome measure was time to death and the secondary outcome measure was likelihood of death within 2 years of the initial study visit. Mortality was determined during annual population surveillance updates.Results: 3157 individuals (70.9%) had multimorbidity; 29% of these had HIV. In models adjusted for age and sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity was associated with greater risk of death (women: HR 1.72; 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.50; men: HR 1.46; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.95) and greater odds of dying within 2 years (women: OR 2.34; 95% CI: 1.32 to 4.16; men: OR 1.51; 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.24). HIV multimorbidity was associated with increased risk of death compared with non-HIV multimorbidity in men (HR 1.93; 95% CI: 1.05 to 3.54), but was not statistically significant in women (HR 1.85; 95% CI: 0.85 to 4.04); when detectable, HIV viral loads were higher in men (p=0.021). Further adjustment for frailty slightly attenuated the associations between multimorbidity and mortality risk (women: HR 1.55; 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.26; men: HR 1.36; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.82), but slightly increased associations between HIV multimorbidity and mortality risk.Conclusions: Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in this older black South African population. Health systems which currently focus on HIV should be reorganised to optimise identification and management of other prevalent chronic diseases.
43.	Wagner, Ryan G., et al. (author) Epilepsy care cascade, treatment gap and its determinants in rural South Africa 2020 In: Seizure. - : Elsevier. - 1059-1311 .- 1532-2688. ; 80, s. 175-180 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Purpose: The percentage of people who are diagnosed with epilepsy (diagnostic gap), access, receive and adhere (treatment gap) to anti-seizure medication (ASM) in low- and middle- income countries remains low. We explored the epilepsy care cascade, measured the diagnostic and treatment gaps, and examined socio-demographic factors associated with adherence to ASMs in rural South Africa.Methods: Utilizing a population-based cohort of 311 people with active convulsive epilepsy (ACE) residing in rural northeastern South Africa, a questionnaire was administered to examine associations between demographic and socioeconomic factors and the epilepsy treatment gap. Blood was taken to measure levels of ASMs.Results: Of the 311 individuals diagnosed, 93 % of individuals reported being previously told they had epilepsy and 94 % reported previously attending a health facility for their epilepsy. ASMs were detected in 138 individuals (76 %) and optimal levels were detected in 67 individuals, resulting in a treatment gap of 63 % (95 % confidence interval [95 %CI]: 56 %-70 %). Self-reported specificity of ASM use was 23 % (95 %CI: 12-39 %) and individuals >= 18 years were significantly more likely to report taking ASM than children and were significantly (p = 0.011) more likely to be adherent.Conclusion: Most people with epilepsy in rural South Africa had been previously diagnosed with epilepsy and had accessed care for epilepsy, yet the level of ASM adherence remained low, significantly lower amongst children. Understanding ways of improving knowledge of and adherence to ASM in rural South Africa is necessary, especially amongst children. The epilepsy care cascade can be useful in identifying gaps in care and targeting interventions to reduce these gaps.
44.	Wagner, Ryan G., et al. (author) Sociodemographic, socioeconomic, clinical and behavioural predictors of body mass index vary by sex in rural South African adults-findings from the AWI-Gen study 2018 In: Global Health Action. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 11, s. 80-89 Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract Background: Despite increasing obesity in South African adults, data on the prevalence and determinants of body mass index (BMI) from rural communities, home to a significant proportion of the population, are scarce. Objectives: To investigate overall and sex-specific determinants of BMI in a rural adult South African population undergoing rapid social and epidemiological transitions. Methods: Baseline cross-sectional demographic, socioeconomic, anthropometric, clinical and behavioural data were collected between 2015 and 2016 from 1388 individuals aged 40-60 years and resident in the Agincourt sub-district of Mpumalanga province, a setting typical of rural northeast South Africa. A Health and Socio-Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS) underpins the sub-district and contributes to the Africa Wits-INDEPTH partnership for Genomic Studies (AWI-Gen). Linear regression was used to investigate univariate associations between log-transformed BMI and individual variables and multiple linear regression was used to investigate independent predictors of BMI overall and in sex-stratified analyses. Results: Median BMI was significantly higher in females (28.7 kg/m(2) [95% CI 24.2-33.2] vs 23.0 kg/m(2) (95% CI 20.3-26.8tp < 0.001) with male sex associated with 17% lower BMI. In sex-stratified multiple linear regression models, compared to those never married, BMI was 7% higher in currently married males and 6% in currently married females. Current smoking in men and former smoking in women were associated with reductions in BMI of 13% and 26% respectively, compared with non-smokers. Higher educational attainment in women and higher socioeconomic status in men were both associated with higher BMI, while being HIV positive and alcohol consumption in women were associated lower BMI. Conclusions: Female sex strongly predicts higher BMI in this rural African population. While some predictors of higher BMI differ by sex, married individuals in both sexes had a higher BMI, suggesting that, in addition to developing sex-specific interventions to combat overweight and obesity, targeting married couples may result in reduction in population BMI.

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