A multiple sclerosis disease progression measure based on cumulative disability

• Background: Existing severity measurements in multiple sclerosis (MS) are often cross-sectional, making longitudinal comparisons of disease course between individuals difficult. Objective: The objective of this study is to create a severity metric that can reliably summarize a patient’s disease course. Methods: We developed the nARMSS – normalized ARMSS (age-related MS severity score) over follow-up, using the deviation of individual ARMSS scores from the expected value and integrated over the corresponding time period. The nARMSS scales from −5 to +5; a positive value indicates a more severe disease course for a patient when compared to other patients with similar disease timings. Results: Using Swedish MS registry data, the nARMSS was tested using data at 2 and 4 years of follow-up to predict the most severe quartile during the subsequent period up to 10 years total follow-up. The metric used was area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC). This resulted in measurements of 0.929 and 0.941. In an external Canadian validation cohort, the equivalent AUC-ROCs were 0.901 and 0.908. Conclusion: The nARMSS provides a reliable, generalizable and easily measurable metric which makes longitudinal comparison of disease course between individuals feasible.

Ämnesord

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP  -- Klinisk medicin -- Neurologi (hsv//swe)

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES  -- Clinical Medicine -- Neurology (hsv//eng)

Nyckelord

disability

Multiple sclerosis

outcome

progression measure

adult

age related multiple sclerosis severity score

Article

cognitive function test

cohort analysis

controlled study

diagnostic test accuracy study

disease exacerbation

disease severity

disease severity assessment

Expanded Disability Status Scale

female

follow up

human

major clinical study

male

receiver operating characteristic

sensitivity and specificity

Swedish citizen

symbol digit modalities test

Publikations- och innehållstyp

ref (ämneskategori)

art (ämneskategori)