| 1. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 2. |
- Silventoinen, K., et al.
(författare)
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Educational attainment of same-sex and opposite-sex dizygotic twins : An individual-level pooled study of 19 twin cohorts
- 2021
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Ingår i: Hormones and Behavior. - : Elsevier. - 0018-506X .- 1095-6867. ; 136
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Comparing twins from same- and opposite-sex pairs can provide information on potential sex differences in a variety of outcomes, including socioeconomic-related outcomes such as educational attainment. It has been suggested that this design can be applied to examine the putative role of intrauterine exposure to testosterone for educational attainment, but the evidence is still disputed. Thus, we established an international database of twin data from 11 countries with 88,290 individual dizygotic twins born over 100 years and tested for differences between twins from same- and opposite-sex dizygotic pairs in educational attainment. Effect sizes with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by linear regression models after adjusting for birth year and twin study cohort. In contrast to the hypothesis, no difference was found in women (β = −0.05 educational years, 95% CI −0.11, 0.02). However, men with a same-sex co-twin were slightly more educated than men having an opposite-sex co-twin (β = 0.14 educational years, 95% CI 0.07, 0.21). No consistent differences in effect sizes were found between individual twin study cohorts representing Europe, the USA, and Australia or over the cohorts born during the 20th century, during which period the sex differences in education reversed favoring women in the latest birth cohorts. Further, no interaction was found with maternal or paternal education. Our results contradict the hypothesis that there would be differences in the intrauterine testosterone levels between same-sex and opposite-sex female twins affecting education. Our findings in men may point to social dynamics within same-sex twin pairs that may benefit men in their educational careers.
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| 3. |
- Ebersole, Charles R., et al.
(författare)
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Many Labs 5: Testing Pre-Data-Collection Peer Review as an Intervention to Increase Replicability
- 2020
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Ingår i: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science. - : Sage. - 2515-2467 .- 2515-2459. ; 3:3, s. 309-331
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Replication studies in psychological science sometimes fail to reproduce prior findings. If these studies use methods that are unfaithful to the original study or ineffective in eliciting the phenomenon of interest, then a failure to replicate may be a failure of the protocol rather than a challenge to the original finding. Formal pre-data-collection peer review by experts may address shortcomings and increase replicability rates. We selected 10 replication studies from the Reproducibility Project: Psychology (RP:P; Open Science Collaboration, 2015) for which the original authors had expressed concerns about the replication designs before data collection; only one of these studies had yielded a statistically significant effect (p < .05). Commenters suggested that lack of adherence to expert review and low-powered tests were the reasons that most of these RP:P studies failed to replicate the original effects. We revised the replication protocols and received formal peer review prior to conducting new replication studies. We administered the RP:P and revised protocols in multiple laboratories (median number of laboratories per original study = 6.5, range = 3-9; median total sample = 1,279.5, range = 276-3,512) for high-powered tests of each original finding with both protocols. Overall, following the preregistered analysis plan, we found that the revised protocols produced effect sizes similar to those of the RP:P protocols (Delta r = .002 or .014, depending on analytic approach). The median effect size for the revised protocols (r = .05) was similar to that of the RP:P protocols (r = .04) and the original RP:P replications (r = .11), and smaller than that of the original studies (r = .37). Analysis of the cumulative evidence across the original studies and the corresponding three replication attempts provided very precise estimates of the 10 tested effects and indicated that their effect sizes (median r = .07, range = .00-.15) were 78% smaller, on average, than the original effect sizes (median r = .37, range = .19-.50).
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| 4. |
- Mittal, S., et al.
(författare)
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The World-wide Randomized Antibiotic Envelope Infection Prevention (WRAP-IT) trial: Long-term follow-up
- 2020
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Ingår i: Heart Rhythm. - : Elsevier BV. - 1547-5271. ; 17:7, s. 1115-1122
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The World-wide Randomized Antibiotic Envelope Infection Prevention trial reported a 40% reduction in major cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) infections within 12 months of the procedure with the use of an antibacterial-eluting envelope (TYRX Absorbable Antibacterial Envelope, Medtronic, Mounds View, MN). Objective: The purpose of this report was to describe the longer-term (>12 months) envelope effects on infection reduction and complications. Methods: All trial patients who underwent CIED replacement, upgrade, revision, or initial cardiac resynchronization therapy – defibrillator implantation received standard-of-care infection prophylaxis and were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive the envelope or not. CIED infection incidence and procedure and system-related complications were characterized through all follow-up (36 months) by using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling. Results: In total, 6800 patients received their intended randomized treatment (3371 envelope; 3429 control; mean follow-up period 21.0 ± 8.3 months). Major CIED-related infections occurred in 32 envelope patients and 51 control patients (Kaplan-Meier [KM] estimate 1.3% vs 1.9%; hazard ratio [HR] 0.64; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41–0.99; P = .046). Any CIED-related infection occurred in 57 envelope patients and 84 control patients (KM estimate 2.1% vs 2.8%; HR 0.69; 95% CI 0.49–0.97; P = .030). System- or procedure-related complications occurred in 235 envelope patients and 252 control patients (KM estimate 8.0% vs 8.2%; HR 0.95; 95% CI 0.79–1.13; P < .001 for noninferiority); the most common were lead dislodgment (1.1%), device lead damage (0.5%), and implant site hematoma (0.4%). Implant site pain occurred less frequently in the envelope group (0.1% vs 0.4%; P = .067). There were no (0.0%) reports of allergic reactions to the components of the envelope (mesh, polymer, or antibiotics). Conclusion: The effects of the TYRX envelope on the reduction of the risk of CIED infection are sustained beyond the first year postprocedure, without an increased risk of complications. © 2020 The Authors
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| 6. |
- Adamik, Barbara, et al.
(författare)
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Estimation of the Severeness Rate, Death Rate, Household Attack Rate and the Total Number of COVID-19 Cases Based on 16 115 Polish Surveillance Records
- 2020
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background: Estimating the actual number of COVID-19 infections is crucial for steering through the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. It is, however, notoriously difficult, as many cases have no or only mild symptoms. Surveillance data for in-household secondary infections offers unbiased samples for COVID-19 prevalence estimation.Methods: We analyse 16 115 Polish surveillance records to obtain key figures of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose conservative upper and lower bound estimators for the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Further, we estimate age-dependent bounds on the severe case rate, death rate, and the in-household attack rate.Results: By maximum likelihood estimates, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Poland as of July 22nd, 2020, is at most around 13 times larger and at least 1.6 times larger than the recorded number. The lower bound on the severeness rate ranges between 0.2% for the 0–39 year-old to 5.7% for older than 80, while the upper bound is between 2.6% and 34.1%. The lower bound on the death rate is between 0.04% for the age group 40–59 to 1.34% for the oldest. Overall, the severeness and death rates grow exponentially with age. The in-household attack ratio is 8.18% for the youngest group and 16.88% for the oldest.Conclusions: The proposed approach derives highly relevant figures on the COVID-19 pandemic from routine surveillance data, under assumption that household members of detected infected are tested and all severe cases are diagnosed.
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| 9. |
- Finkel, Deborah, et al.
(författare)
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Financial strain moderates genetic influences on self-rated health : support for diathesis–stress model of gene–environment interplay
- 2022
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Ingår i: Biodemography and Social Biology. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1948-5565 .- 1948-5573. ; 67:1, s. 58-70
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Data from the Interplay of Genes and Environment across Multiple Studies (IGEMS) consortium were used to examine predictions of different models of gene-by-environment interaction to understand how genetic variance in self-rated health (SRH) varies at different levels of financial strain. A total of 11,359 individuals from 10 twin studies in Australia, Sweden, and the United States contributed relevant data, including 2,074 monozygotic and 2,623 dizygotic twin pairs. Age ranged from 22 to 98 years, with a mean age of 61.05 (SD = 13.24). A factor model was used to create a harmonized measure of financial strain across studies and items. Twin analyses of genetic and environmental variance for SRH incorporating age, age2, sex, and financial strain moderators indicated significant financial strain moderation of genetic influences on self-rated health. Moderation results did not differ across sex or country. Genetic variance for SRH increased as financial strain increased, matching the predictions of the diathesis–stress and social comparison models for components of variance. Under these models, environmental improvements would be expected to reduce genetically based health disparities.
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| 10. |
- Jelenkovic, A, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic and environmental influences on human height from infancy through adulthood at different levels of parental education
- 2020
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Ingår i: Scientific reports. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2045-2322. ; 10:1, s. 7974-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genetic factors explain a major proportion of human height variation, but differences in mean stature have also been found between socio-economic categories suggesting a possible effect of environment. By utilizing a classical twin design which allows decomposing the variation of height into genetic and environmental components, we tested the hypothesis that environmental variation in height is greater in offspring of lower educated parents. Twin data from 29 cohorts including 65,978 complete twin pairs with information on height at ages 1 to 69 years and on parental education were pooled allowing the analyses at different ages and in three geographic-cultural regions (Europe, North America and Australia, and East Asia). Parental education mostly showed a positive association with offspring height, with significant associations in mid-childhood and from adolescence onwards. In variance decomposition modeling, the genetic and environmental variance components of height did not show a consistent relation to parental education. A random-effects meta-regression analysis of the aggregate-level data showed a trend towards greater shared environmental variation of height in low parental education families. In conclusion, in our very large dataset from twin cohorts around the globe, these results provide only weak evidence for the study hypothesis.
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| 11. |
- Mann, Frank D., et al.
(författare)
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A novel approach to model cumulative stress: Area under the s-factor curve
- 2024
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Ingår i: Social Science and Medicine. - : Elsevier. - 0277-9536 .- 1873-5347. ; 348
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: Using a large longitudinal sample of adults from the Midlife in the United States (MIDUS) study, the present study extended a recently developed hierarchical model to determine how best to model the accumulation of stressors, and to determine whether the rate of change in stressors or traditional composite scores of stressors are stronger predictors of health outcomes. Method: We used factor analysis to estimate a stress-factor score and then, to operationalize the accumulation of stressors we examined five approaches to aggregating information about repeated exposures to multiple stressors. The predictive validity of these approaches was then assessed in relation to different health outcomes. Results: The prediction of chronic conditions, body mass index, difficulty with activities of daily living, executive function, and episodic memory later in life was strongest when the accumulation of stressors was modeled using total area under the curve (AUC) of estimated factor scores, compared to composite scores that have traditionally been used in studies of cumulative stress, as well as linear rates of change. Conclusions: Like endogenous, biological markers of stress reactivity, AUC for individual trajectories of self-reported stressors shows promise as a data reduction technique to model the accumulation of stressors in longitudinal studies. Overall, our results indicate that considering different quantitative models is critical to understanding the sequelae and predictive power of psychosocial stressors from midlife to late adulthood.
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Silventoinen, Karri, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic and environmental variation in educational attainment : an individual-based analysis of 28 twin cohorts
- 2020
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Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Springer Nature. - 2045-2322. ; 10:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigated the heritability of educational attainment and how it differed between birth cohorts and cultural–geographic regions. A classical twin design was applied to pooled data from 28 cohorts representing 16 countries and including 193,518 twins with information on educational attainment at 25 years of age or older. Genetic factors explained the major part of individual differences in educational attainment (heritability: a2 = 0.43; 0.41–0.44), but also environmental variation shared by co-twins was substantial (c2 = 0.31; 0.30–0.33). The proportions of educational variation explained by genetic and shared environmental factors did not differ between Europe, North America and Australia, and East Asia. When restricted to twins 30 years or older to confirm finalized education, the heritability was higher in the older cohorts born in 1900–1949 (a2 = 0.44; 0.41–0.46) than in the later cohorts born in 1950–1989 (a2 = 0.38; 0.36–0.40), with a corresponding lower influence of common environmental factors (c2 = 0.31; 0.29–0.33 and c2 = 0.34; 0.32–0.36, respectively). In conclusion, both genetic and environmental factors shared by co-twins have an important influence on individual differences in educational attainment. The effect of genetic factors on educational attainment has decreased from the cohorts born before to those born after the 1950s.
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