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4.
  • Wang, H. D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Barber, R. M., et al. (författare)
  • Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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  • Barber, R. M., et al. (författare)
  • Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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  • Singh, B. P., et al. (författare)
  • Experimental access to Transition Distribution Amplitudes with the PANDA experiment at FAIR
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: European Physical Journal A. Hadrons and Nuclei. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1434-6001 .- 1434-601X. ; 51:8
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Baryon-to-meson Transition Distribution Amplitudes (TDAs) encoding valuable new information on hadron structure appear as building blocks in the collinear factorized description for several types of hard exclusive reactions. In this paper, we address the possibility of accessing nucleon-to-pion (pi N) TDAs from (p) over barp -> e(+)e(-)pi(0) reaction with the future PANDA detector at the FAIR facility. At high center-of-mass energy and high invariant mass squared of the lepton pair q(2), the amplitude of the signal channel (p) over barp -> e(+)e(-)pi(0) admits a QCD factorized description in terms of pi N TDAs and nucleon Distribution Amplitudes (DAs) in the forward aid backward kinematic regimes. Assuming the validity of this factorized description, we perform feasibility studies for measuring (p) over barp -> e(+)e(-)pi(0) with the PANDA detector. Detailed simulations on signal reconstruction efficiency as well as on rejection of the most severe background channel, i.e. (p) over barp -> pi(+)pi(-)pi(0) were performed for the center-of-mass energy squared s = 5 GeV2 and s = 10 GeV2, in the kinematic regions 3.0 < q(2) < 4.3 GeV2 and 5 < q(2) < 9 GeV2, respectively, with a neutral pion scattered in the forward or backward cone vertical bar cos theta(pi 0)vertical bar > 0.5 in the proton-antiproton center-of-mass frame. Results of the simulation show that the particle identification capabilities of the PANDA detector will allow to achieve a background rejection factor of 5 . 10(7) (1 . 10(7)) at low (high) q(2) for s = 5 GeV2, and of 1 . 10(8) (6 . 10(6)) at low (high) q(2) for s = 10 GeV2, while keeping the signal reconstruction efficiency at around 40%. At both energies, a clean lepton signal can be reconstructed with the expected statistics corresponding to 2 of integrated luminosity. The cross sections obtained from the simulations are used to show that a test of QCD collinear factorization can be done at the lowest order by measuring scaling laws and angular distributions. The future measurement of the signal channel cross section with PANDA will provide a new test of the perturbative QCD description of a novel class of hard exclusive reactions and will open the possibility of experimentally accessing pi N TDAs.
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  • Collaboration, The PANDA, et al. (författare)
  • Feasibility studies of time-like proton electromagnetic form factors at PANDA at FAIR
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: European Physical Journal A. - : Springer Publishing Company. - 1434-6001 .- 1434-601X. ; 52:10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Simulation results for future measurements of electromagnetic proton form factors at P ¯ ANDA (FAIR) within the PandaRoot software framework are reported. The statistical precision with which the proton form factors can be determined is estimated. The signal channel p¯ p→ e+e- is studied on the basis of two different but consistent procedures. The suppression of the main background channel, i.e.p¯ p→ π+π-, is studied. Furthermore, the background versus signal efficiency, statistical and systematical uncertainties on the extracted proton form factors are evaluated using two different procedures. The results are consistent with those of a previous simulation study using an older, simplified framework. However, a slightly better precision is achieved in the PandaRoot study in a large range of momentum transfer, assuming the nominal beam conditions and detector performance.
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  • Singh, B., et al. (författare)
  • Feasibility study for the measurement of pi N transition distribution amplitudes at (P)over-barANDA in (P)over-barp -> J/psi pi(0)
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Physical Review D. - : AMER PHYSICAL SOC. - 2470-0010 .- 2470-0029. ; 95:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The exclusive charmonium production process in (P) over barp annihilation with an associated pi 0 meson (p) over barp -> J/psi pi(0) is studied in the framework of QCD collinear factorization. The feasibility of measuring this reaction through the J/psi -> e(+) e(-) decay channel with the AntiProton ANnihilation at DArmstadt ((P) over bar ANDA) experiment is investigated. Simulations on signal reconstruction efficiency as well as the background rejection from various sources including the (P) over barp -> pi(+)pi(-)pi(0) and (p) over barp -> J/psi pi(0)pi(0) reactions are performed with PANDAROOT, the simulation and analysis software framework of the (P) over bar ANDA experiment. It is shown that the measurement can be done at (P) over bar ANDA with significant constraining power under the assumption of an integrated luminosity attainable in four to five months of data taking at the maximum design luminosity.
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  • Singh, B., et al. (författare)
  • Study of doubly strange systems using stored antiprotons
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Nuclear Physics A. - : Elsevier. - 0375-9474 .- 1873-1554. ; 954, s. 323-340
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Bound nuclear systems with two units of strangeness are still poorly known despite their importance for many strong interaction phenomena. Stored antiprotons beams in the GeV range represent an unparalleled factory for various hyperon-antihyperon pairs. Their outstanding large production probability in antiproton collisions will open the floodgates for a series of new studies of systems which contain two or even more units of strangeness at the PANDA experiment at FAIR. For the first time, high resolution gamma-spectroscopy of doubly strange Lambda Lambda-hypernuclei will be performed, thus complementing measurements of ground state decays of Lambda Lambda-hypernuclei at J-PARC or possible decays of particle unstable hypernuclei in heavy ion reactions. High resolution spectroscopy of multistrange Xi(-) -atoms will be feasible and even the production of Omega(-) -atoms will be within reach. The latter might open the door to the vertical bar S vertical bar = 3 world in strangeness nuclear physics, by the study of the hadronic Omega(-) -nucleus interaction. For the first time it will be possible to study the behavior of Xi(+) in nuclear systems under well controlled conditions.
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  • 2019
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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  • Aartsen, M. G., et al. (författare)
  • The Detection Of A Sn Iin In Optical Follow-Up Observations Of Icecube Neutrino Events
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 811:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The IceCube neutrino observatory pursues a follow-up program selecting interesting neutrino events in real-time and issuing alerts for electromagnetic follow-up observations. In 2012 March, the most significant neutrino alert during the first three years of operation was issued by IceCube. In the follow-up observations performed by the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF), a Type IIn supernova (SN IIn) PTF12csy was found 0.degrees 2 away from the neutrino alert direction, with an error radius of 0.degrees 54. It has a redshift of z = 0.0684, corresponding to a luminosity distance of about 300 Mpc and the Pan-STARRS1 survey shows that its explosion time was at least 158 days (in host galaxy rest frame) before the neutrino alert, so that a causal connection is unlikely. The a posteriori significance of the chance detection of both the neutrinos and the SN at any epoch is 2.2 sigma within IceCube's 2011/12 data acquisition season. Also, a complementary neutrino analysis reveals no long-term signal over the course of one year. Therefore, we consider the SN detection coincidental and the neutrinos uncorrelated to the SN. However, the SN is unusual and interesting by itself: it is luminous and energetic, bearing strong resemblance to the SN IIn 2010jl, and shows signs of interaction of the SN ejecta with a dense circumstellar medium. High-energy neutrino emission is expected in models of diffusive shock acceleration, but at a low, non-detectable level for this specific SN. In this paper, we describe the SN PTF12csy and present both the neutrino and electromagnetic data, as well as their analysis.
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  • Tabassum, R, et al. (författare)
  • Genetic architecture of human plasma lipidome and its link to cardiovascular disease
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10:1, s. 4329-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Understanding genetic architecture of plasma lipidome could provide better insights into lipid metabolism and its link to cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). Here, we perform genome-wide association analyses of 141 lipid species (n = 2,181 individuals), followed by phenome-wide scans with 25 CVD related phenotypes (n = 511,700 individuals). We identify 35 lipid-species-associated loci (P <5 ×10−8), 10 of which associate with CVD risk including five new loci-COL5A1, GLTPD2, SPTLC3, MBOAT7 and GALNT16 (false discovery rate<0.05). We identify loci for lipid species that are shown to predict CVD e.g., SPTLC3 for CER(d18:1/24:1). We show that lipoprotein lipase (LPL) may more efficiently hydrolyze medium length triacylglycerides (TAGs) than others. Polyunsaturated lipids have highest heritability and genetic correlations, suggesting considerable genetic regulation at fatty acids levels. We find low genetic correlations between traditional lipids and lipid species. Our results show that lipidomic profiles capture information beyond traditional lipids and identify genetic variants modifying lipid levels and risk of CVD.
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  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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  • Matejcic, M, et al. (författare)
  • Author Correction: Germline variation at 8q24 and prostate cancer risk in men of European ancestry
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10:1, s. 382-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The original version of this Article contained an error in the spelling of the author Manuela Gago-Dominguez, which was incorrectly given as Manuela G. Dominguez. This has now been corrected in both the PDF and HTML versions of the Article.
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23.
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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24.
  • Vos, Theo, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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25.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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27.
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28.
  • Smerdon, J. E., et al. (författare)
  • Comparing proxy and model estimates of hydroclimate variability and change over the Common Era
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 13:12, s. 1851-1900
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observations that are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage is insufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal to centennial variability and highly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate simulations from climate models are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding of hydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing the uncertainties and limitations of both while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data available for hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight the contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted as hydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully coupled climate models and discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specific review of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as is a discussion of expected improvements in estimated radiative forcings, models, and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies and last-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how to perform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons and how they can better inform interpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisons to better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examples that demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimated from climate model projections.
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29.
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30.
  • Griswold, Max G., et al. (författare)
  • Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 392:10152, s. 1015-1035
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for death and disability, but its overall association with health remains complex given the possible protective effects of moderate alcohol consumption on some conditions. With our comprehensive approach to health accounting within the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we generated improved estimates of alcohol use and alcohol-attributable deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 locations from 1990 to 2016, for both sexes and for 5-year age groups between the ages of 15 years and 95 years and older.Methods: Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs. We made several methodological improvements compared with previous estimates: first, we adjusted alcohol sales estimates to take into account tourist and unrecorded consumption; second, we did a new meta-analysis of relative risks for 23 health outcomes associated with alcohol use; and third, we developed a new method to quantify the level of alcohol consumption that minimises the overall risk to individual health.Findings: Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5-3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8-8.0) of age-standardised male deaths. Among the population aged 15-49 years, alcohol use was the leading risk factor globally in 2016, with 3.8% (95% UI 3.2-4-3) of female deaths and 12.2% (10.8-13-6) of male deaths attributable to alcohol use. For the population aged 15-49 years, female attributable DALYs were 2.3% (95% UI 2.0-2.6) and male attributable DALYs were 8.9% (7.8-9.9). The three leading causes of attributable deaths in this age group were tuberculosis (1.4% [95% UI 1. 0-1. 7] of total deaths), road injuries (1.2% [0.7-1.9]), and self-harm (1.1% [0.6-1.5]). For populations aged 50 years and older, cancers accounted for a large proportion of total alcohol-attributable deaths in 2016, constituting 27.1% (95% UI 21.2-33.3) of total alcohol-attributable female deaths and 18.9% (15.3-22.6) of male deaths. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0.0-0.8) standard drinks per week.Interpretation: Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero. These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption.
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31.
  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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32.
  • Hsiao, E. Y., et al. (författare)
  • Strong near-infrared carbon in the Type Ia supernova iPTF13ebh
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 578
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present near-infrared (NIR) time-series spectroscopy, as well as complementary ultraviolet (UV), optical, and NIR data, of the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) iPTF13ebh, which was discovered within two days from the estimated time of explosion. The first NIR spectrum was taken merely 2 : 3 days after explosion and may be the earliest NIR spectrum yet obtained of a SN Ia. The most striking features in the spectrum are several NIR C I lines, and the C I lambda 1.0693 mu m line is the strongest ever observed in a SN Ia. Interestingly, no strong optical C II counterparts were found, even though the optical spectroscopic time series began early and is densely cadenced. Except at the very early epochs, within a few days from the time of explosion, we show that the strong NIR C I compared to the weaker optical C II appears to be general in SNe Ia. iPTF13ebh is a fast decliner with Delta m(15)(B) = 1.79 +/- 0.01, and its absolute magnitude obeys the linear part of the width-luminosity relation. It is therefore categorized as a transitional event, on the fast-declining end of normal SNe Ia as opposed to subluminous/91bg-like objects. iPTF13ebh shows NIR spectroscopic properties that are distinct from both the normal and subluminous/91bg-like classes, bridging the observed characteristics of the two classes. These NIR observations suggest that composition and density of the inner core are similar to that of 91bg-like events, and that it has a deep-reaching carbon burning layer that is not observed in more slowly declining SNe Ia. There is also a substantial difference between the explosion times inferred from the early-time light curve and the velocity evolution of the Si II lambda 0.6355 mu m line, implying a long dark phase of similar to 4 days.
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33.
  • Bellm, Eric C., et al. (författare)
  • The Zwicky Transient Facility : System Overview, Performance, and First Results
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 131:995
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) is a new optical time-domain survey that uses the Palomar 48 inch Schmidt telescope. A custom-built wide-field camera provides a 47 deg(2) field of view and 8 s readout time, yielding more than an order of magnitude improvement in survey speed relative to its predecessor survey, the Palomar Transient Factory. We describe the design and implementation of the camera and observing system. The ZTF data system at the Infrared Processing and Analysis Center provides near-real-time reduction to identify moving and varying objects. We outline the analysis pipelines, data products, and associated archive. Finally, we present on-sky performance analysis and first scientific results from commissioning and the early survey. ZTF's public alert stream will serve as a useful precursor for that of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope.
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34.
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35.
  • Kupfer, T., et al. (författare)
  • The OmegaWhite Survey for Short-period Variable Stars. V. Discovery of an Ultracompact Hot Subdwarf Binary with a Compact Companion in a 44-minute Orbit
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 851:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We report the discovery of the ultracompact hot subdwarf (sdOB) binary OW J074106.0-294811.0 with an orbital period of P-orb = 44.66279 +/- 1.16 x 10(-4) minutes, making it the most compact hot subdwarf binary known. Spectroscopic observations using the VLT, Gemini and Keck telescopes revealed a He-sdOB primary with an intermediate helium abundance, T-eff = 39 400 +/- 500 K and log g = 5.74 +/- 0.09. High signal-to-noise ratio light curves show strong ellipsoidal modulation resulting in a derived sdOB mass M-sdOB= 0.23 +/- 0.12 M-circle dot with a WD companion (M-WD = 0.72 +/- 0.17 M-circle dot). The mass ratio was found to be q = M-sdOB/M-WD = 0.32 +/- 0.10. The derived mass for the He-sdOB is inconsistent with the canonical mass for hot subdwarfs of approximate to 0.47 M-circle dot. To put constraints on the structure and evolutionary history of the sdOB star we compared the derived T-eff, log g, and sdOB mass to evolutionary tracks of helium stars and helium white dwarfs calculated with Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA). We find that the best-fitting model is a helium white dwarf with a mass of 0.320 M-circle dot, which left the common envelope approximate to 1.1 Myr ago, which is consistent with the observations. As a helium white dwarf with a massive white dwarf companion, the object will reach contact in 17.6 Myr at an orbital period of 5 minutes. Depending on the spin-orbit synchronization timescale the object will either merge to form an R CrB star or end up as a stably accreting AM CVn-type system with a helium white dwarf donor.
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36.
  • Adams, S. M., et al. (författare)
  • iPTF Survey for Cool Transients
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Publications of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. - : IOP Publishing. - 0004-6280 .- 1538-3873. ; 130:985
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We performed a wide-area (2000 deg2) g and I band experiment as part of a two month extension to the Intermediate Palomar Transient Factory. We discovered 36 extragalactic transients including iPTF17lf, a highly reddened local SN Ia, iPTF17bkj, a new member of the rare class of transitional Ibn/IIn supernovae, and iPTF17be, a candidate luminous blue variable outburst. We do not detect any luminous red novae and place an upper limit on their rate. We show that adding a slow-cadence I band component to upcoming surveys such as the Zwicky Transient Facility will improve the photometric selection of cool and dusty transients.
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37.
  • Blagorodnova, N., et al. (författare)
  • iPTF16fnl : A Faint and Fast Tidal Disruption Event in an E plus A Galaxy
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 844:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present ground-based and Swift observations of iPTF16fnl, a likely tidal disruption event (TDE) discovered by the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) survey at 66.6 Mpc. The light curve of the object peaked at an absolute mag M-g = -17.2. The maximum bolometric luminosity (from optical and UV) was L-p similar or equal to (1.0 +/- 0.15) x 10(43) erg s(-1), an order of magnitude fainter than any other optical TDE discovered so far. The luminosity in the first 60 days is consistent with an exponential decay, with L proportional to e(-(t-t0)/T), where t(0) = 57631.0 (MJD) and tau similar or equal to 15 days. The X-ray shows a marginal detection at L-X = 2.4(-1.1)(1.9) x 10(39) erg s(-1) (Swift X-ray Telescope). No radio counterpart was detected down to 3s, providing upper limits for monochromatic radio luminosities of nu L-nu < 2.3 x 10(36) erg s(-1) and nLn < 1.7 x 10(37) erg s(-1) (Very Large Array, 6.1 and 22 GHz). The blackbody temperature, obtained from combined Swift UV and optical photometry, shows a constant value of 19,000 K. The transient spectrum at peak is characterized by broad He II and Ha emission lines, with FWHMs of about 14,000 km s(-1) and 10,000 km s(-1), respectively. He. I lines are also detected at lambda lambda 5875 and 6678. The spectrum of the host is dominated by strong Balmer absorption lines, which are consistent with a post-starburst (E+A) galaxy with an age of similar to 650 Myr and solar metallicity. The characteristics of iPTF16fnl make it an outlier on both luminosity and decay timescales, as compared to other optically selected TDEs. The discovery of such a faint optical event suggests a higher rate of tidal disruptions, as low-luminosity events may have gone unnoticed in previous searches.
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38.
  • Blagorodnova, N., et al. (författare)
  • The Broad Absorption Line Tidal Disruption Event iPTF15af : Optical and Ultraviolet Evolution
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 873:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present multiwavelength observations of the tidal disruption event (TDE) iPTF15af, discovered by the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory survey at redshift z = 0.07897. The optical and ultraviolet (UV) light curves of the transient show a slow decay over 5 months, in agreement with previous optically discovered TDEs. It also has a comparable blackbody peak luminosity of L-peak approximate to 1.5 x 10(44) erg s(-1). The inferred temperature from the optical and UV data shows a value of (3-5) x 10(4) K. The transient is not detected in X-rays up to L-X < 3 x 10(42) erg s(-1) within the first 5 months after discovery. The optical spectra exhibit two distinct broad emission lines in the He II region, and at later times also H alpha emission. Additionally, emission from [N III] and [O III] is detected, likely produced by the Bowen fluorescence effect. UV spectra reveal broad emission and absorption lines associated with high-ionization states of N V, C IV, Si IV, and possibly P V. These features, analogous to those of broad absorption line quasars (BAL QSOs), require an absorber with column densities N-H > 10(23) cm(-2). This optically thick gas would also explain the nondetection in soft X-rays. The profile of the absorption lines with the highest column density material at the largest velocity is opposite that of BAL QSOs. We suggest that radiation pressure generated by the TDE flare at early times could have provided the initial acceleration mechanism for this gas. Spectral UV line monitoring of future TDEs could test this proposal.
  •  
39.
  • Corsi, Alessandra, et al. (författare)
  • iPTF17cw : An Engine-driven Supernova Candidate Discovered Independent of a Gamma-Ray Trigger
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 847:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present the discovery, classification, and radio-to-X-ray follow-up observations of iPTF17cw, a broad-lined (BL) type Ic supernova (SN) discovered by the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF). Although it is unrelated to the gravitational wave trigger, this SN was discovered as a happy by-product of the extensive observational campaign dedicated to the follow-up of Advanced LIGO event GW 170104. The spectroscopic properties and inferred peak bolometric luminosity of iPTF17cw are most similar to the gamma-ray-burst (GRB)associated SN, SN 1998bw, while the shape of the r-band light curve is most similar to that of the relativistic SN, SN 2009bb. Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array (VLA) observations of the iPTF17cw field reveal a radio counterpart approximate to 10 times less luminous than SN 1998bw, and with a peak radio luminosity comparable to that of SN 2006aj/GRB 060218 and SN 2010bh/GRB 100316D. Our radio observations of iPTF17cw imply a relativistically expanding outflow. However, further late-time observations with the VLA in its most extended configuration are needed to confirm fading of the iPTF17cw radio counterpart at all frequencies. X-ray observations carried out with Chandra reveal the presence of an X-ray counterpart with a luminosity similar to that of SN 2010bh/GRB 100316D. Searching the Fermi catalog for possible gamma-rays reveals that GRB 161228B is spatially and temporally compatible with iPTF17cw. The similarity to SN 1998bw and SN 2009bb, the radio and X-ray detections, and the potential association with GRB 161228B all point to iPTF17cw being a new candidate member of the rare sample of optically discovered engine-driven BL-Ic SNe associated with relativistic ejecta.
  •  
40.
  • Hung, T., et al. (författare)
  • Sifting for Sapphires : Systematic Selection of Tidal Disruption Events in iPTF
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0067-0049 .- 1538-4365. ; 238:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present results from a systematic selection of tidal disruption events (TDEs) in a wide-area (4800 deg(2)), g+ R band, Intermediate Palomar Transient Factory experiment. Our selection targets typical optically selected TDEs: bright (> 60% flux increase) and blue transients residing in the centers of red galaxies. Using photometric selection criteria to down-select from a total of 493 nuclear transients to a sample of 26 sources, we then use follow-up UV imaging with the Neil Gehrels Swift Telescope, ground-based optical spectroscopy, and light curve fitting to classify them as 14 Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), 9 highly variable active galactic nuclei (AGNs), 2 confirmed TDEs, and 1 potential core-collapse supernova. We find it possible to filter AGNs by employing a more stringent transient color cut (g - r < -0.2 mag); further, UV imaging is the best discriminator for filtering SNe, since SNe Ia can appear as blue, optically, as TDEs in their early phases. However, when UV-optical color is unavailable, higher-precision astrometry can also effectively reduce SNe contamination in the optical. Our most stringent optical photometric selection criteria yields a 4.5: 1 contamination rate, allowing for a manageable number of TDE candidates for complete spectroscopic follow-up and real-time classification in the Zwicky Transient Facility era. We measure a TDE per galaxy rate of 1.7(-1.3)(+2.9) 10(-4) gal yr(-1) (90% CL in Poisson statistics). This does not account for TDEs outside our selection criteria, and thus may not reflect the total TDE population, which is yet to be fully mapped.
  •  
41.
  • Lunnan, R., et al. (författare)
  • Two New Calcium-rich Gap Transients in Group and Cluster Environments
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 836:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present the Palomar Transient Factory discoveries and the photometric and spectroscopic observations of PTF11kmb and PTF12bho. We show that both transients have properties consistent with the class of calcium-rich gap transients, specifically lower peak luminosities and rapid evolution compared to ordinary supernovae, and a nebular spectrum dominated by [Ca II] emission. A striking feature of both transients is their host environments: PTF12bho is an intracluster transient in the Coma Cluster, while PTF11kmb is located in a loose galaxy group, at a physical offset similar to 150 kpc from the most likely host galaxy. Deep Subaru imaging of PTF12bho rules out an underlying host system to a limit of M-R > -8.0 mag, while Hubble Space Telescope imaging of PTF11kmb reveals a marginal counterpart that, if real, could be either a background galaxy or a globular cluster. We show that the offset distribution of Ca-rich gap transients is significantly more extreme than that seen for SNe Ia or even short-hard gamma-ray bursts (sGRBs). Thus, if the offsets are caused by a kick, they require higher kick velocities and/or longer merger times than sGRBs. We also show that almost all Ca-rich transients found to date are in group and cluster environments with elliptical host galaxies, indicating a very old progenitor population; the remote locations could partially be explained by these environments having the largest fraction of stars in the intragroup/intracluster light following galaxy-galaxy interactions.
  •  
42.
  • Blagorodnova, N., et al. (författare)
  • COMMON ENVELOPE EJECTION FOR A LUMINOUS RED NOVA IN M101
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 834:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present the results of optical, near-infrared, and mid-infrared observations of M101 OT2015-1 (PSN J14021678+ 5426205), a luminous red transient in the Pinwheel galaxy (M101), spanning a total of 16 years. The light curve showed two distinct peaks with absolute magnitudes M-r <= -12.4 and M-r similar or equal to -12, on 2014 November 11 and 2015 February 17, respectively. The spectral energy distributions during the second maximum show a cool outburst temperature of approximate to 3700 K and low expansion velocities (approximate to -300 km s(-1)) for the H I, Ca II, Ba II, and K I lines. From archival data spanning 15-8 years before the outburst, we find a single source consistent with the optically discovered transient, which we attribute to being the progenitor; it has properties consistent with being an F-type yellow supergiant with L similar to 8.7 x 10(4) L-circle dot, T-eff approximate to 7000. K, and an estimated mass of M1= 18 +/- 1 M-circle dot. This star has likely just finished the H-burning phase in the core, started expanding, and is now crossing the Hertzsprung gap. Based on the combination of observed properties, we argue that the progenitor is a binary system, with the more evolved system overfilling the Roche lobe. Comparison with binary evolution models suggests that the outburst was an extremely rare phenomenon, likely associated with the ejection of the common envelope of a massive star. The initial mass of the primary fills the gap between the merger candidates V838 Mon (5-10 M-circle dot) and NGC. 4490-OT. (30M(circle dot)).
  •  
43.
  • Fremling, C., et al. (författare)
  • ZTF18aalrxas : A Type IIb Supernova from a Very Extended Low-mass Progenitor
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8205 .- 2041-8213. ; 878:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We investigate ZTF18aalrxas, a double-peaked Type IIb core-collapse supernova (SN) discovered during science validation of the Zwicky Transient Facility. ZTF18aalrxas was discovered while the optical emission was still rising toward the initial cooling peak (0.7 mag over 2 days). Our observations consist of multi-band (ultraviolet and optical) light curves (LCs), and optical spectra spanning from approximate to 0.7 to approximate to 480 days past the explosion. We use a Monte-Carlo based non-local thermodynamic equilibrium model that simultaneously reproduces both the Ni-56-powered bolometric LC and our nebular spectrum. This model is used to constrain the synthesized radioactive nickel mass (0.17 M-circle dot) and the total ejecta mass (1.7 M-circle dot) of the SN. The cooling emission is modeled using semi-analytical extended envelope models to constrain the progenitor radius (790-1050 R-circle dot) at the time of explosion. Our nebular spectrum shows signs of interaction with a dense circumstellar medium (CSM), and this spectrum is modeled and analyzed to constrain the amount of ejected oxygen (0.3-0.5 M-circle dot) and the total hydrogen mass (approximate to 0.15 M-circle dot) in the envelope of the progenitor. The oxygen mass of ZTF18aalrxas is consistent with a low (12-13 M-circle dot) zero-age main-sequence mass progenitor. The LCs and spectra of ZTF18aalrxas are not consistent with massive single-star SN Type IIb progenitor models. The presence of an extended hydrogen envelope of low mass, the presence of a dense CSM, the derived ejecta mass, and the late-time oxygen emission can all be explained in a binary model scenario.
  •  
44.
  • Gezari, S., et al. (författare)
  • iPTF Discovery of the Rapid Turn-on of a Luminous Quasar
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 835:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present a radio-quiet quasar at z = 0.237 discovered turning on by the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF). The transient, iPTF 16bco, was detected by iPTF in the nucleus of a galaxy with an archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectrum with weak narrow-line emission characteristic of a low-ionization nuclear emission-line region (LINER). Our follow-up spectra show the dramatic appearance of broad Balmer lines and a power-law continuum characteristic of a luminous (L-bol approximate to 10(45) erg s(-1)) type 1 quasar 12 yr later. Our photometric monitoring with PTF from 2009-2012 and serendipitous X-ray observations from the XMM-Newton Slew Survey in 2011 and 2015 constrain the change of state to have occurred less than 500 days before the iPTF detection. An enhanced broad H alpha/[O III] lambda 5007 line ratio in the type 1 state relative to other changing-look quasars also is suggestive of the most rapid change of state yet observed in a quasar. We argue that the > 10 increase in Eddington ratio inferred from the brightening in UV and X-ray continuum flux is more likely due to an intrinsic change in the accretion rate of a preexisting accretion disk than an external mechanism such as variable obscuration, microlensing, or the tidal disruption of a star. However, further monitoring will be helpful in better constraining the mechanism driving this change of state. The rapid turn-on of the quasar is much shorter than the viscous infall timescale of an accretion disk and requires a disk instability that can develop around a similar to 10(8) M circle dot black hole on timescales less than 1 yr.
  •  
45.
  • Ho, Anna Y. Q., et al. (författare)
  • Evidence for Late-stage Eruptive Mass Loss in the Progenitor to SN2018gep, a Broad-lined Ic Supernova : Pre-explosion Emission and a Rapidly Rising Luminous Transient
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 887:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We present detailed observations of ZTF18abukavn (SN2018gep), discovered in high-cadence data from the Zwicky Transient Facility as a rapidly rising (1.4 +/- 0.1 mag hr(-1)) and luminous (M-g,M- peak = -20 mag) transient. It is spectroscopically classified as a broad-lined stripped-envelope supernova (Ic-BL SN). The high peak luminosity (L-bol greater than or similar to 3 x 10(44) erg s(-1)), the short rise time (t(rise) = 3 days in g band), and the blue colors at peak (g-r similar to -0.4) all resemble the high-redshift Ic-BL iPTF16asu, as well as several other unclassified fast transients. The early discovery of SN2018gep (within an hour of shock breakout) enabled an intensive spectroscopic campaign, including the highest-temperature (T-eff greater than or similar to 40,000 K) spectra of a stripped-envelope SN. A retrospective search revealed luminous (M-g similar to M-r approximate to -14 mag) emission in the days to weeks before explosion, the first definitive detection of precursor emission for a Ic-BL. We find a limit on the isotropic gamma-ray energy release E-gamma,E- iso < 4.9 x 10(48) erg, a limit on X-ray emission L-X < 10(40) erg s(-1), and a limit on radio emission nu L-v less than or similar to 10(37) erg s(-1). Taken together, we find that the early (< 10 days) data are best explained by shock breakout in a massive shell of dense circumstellar material (0.02 M-circle dot) at large radii (3 x 10(14) cm) that was ejected in eruptive pre-explosion mass-loss episodes. The late-time (> 10 days) light curve requires an additional energy source, which could be the radioactive decay of Ni-56.
  •  
46.
  • Hung, T., et al. (författare)
  • Revisiting Optical Tidal Disruption Events with iPTF16axa
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 842:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We report the discovery by the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) of a candidate tidal disruption event (TDE) iPTF16axa at z=0.108 and present its broadband photometric and spectroscopic evolution from three. months of follow-up observations with ground-based telescopes and Swift. The light curve is well fitted with a t(-5/3) decay, and we constrain the rise time to peak to be <49 rest-frame days after disruption, which is roughly consistent with the fallback timescale expected for the similar to 5x10(6) M-circle dot black hole inferred from the stellar velocity dispersion of the host galaxy. The UV and optical spectral energy distribution is well described by a constant blackbody temperature of T similar to 3x10(4) K over the monitoring period, with an observed peak luminosity of 1.1x10(44) erg s(-1). The optical spectra are characterized by a strong blue continuum and broad He II and H alpha lines, which are characteristic of TDEs. We compare the photometric and spectroscopic signatures of iPTF16axa with 11 TDE candidates in the literature with well-sampled optical light curves. Based on a single-temperature fit to the optical and near-UV photometry, most of these TDE candidates have peak luminosities confined between log(L[erg s(-1)])=43.4-44.4, with constant temperatures of a fewx10(4) K during their power-law declines, implying blackbody radii on the order of 10 times the tidal disruption radius, that decrease monotonically with time. For TDE candidates with hydrogen and helium emission, the high helium-to-hydrogen ratios suggest that the emission arises from high-density gas, where nebular arguments break down. We find no correlation between the peak luminosity and the black hole mass, contrary to the expectations for TDEs to have (M) over dot proportional to M-BH(-1/2).
  •  
47.
  • Lunnan, Ragnhild, et al. (författare)
  • A UV resonance line echo from a shell around a hydrogen-poor superluminous supernova
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Nature Astronomy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3366. ; 2:11, s. 887-895
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Hydrogen-poor superluminous supernovae (SLSN-I) are a class of rare and energetic explosions that have been discovered in untargeted transient surveys in the past decade(1,2). The progenitor stars and the physical mechanism behind their large radiated energies (about 1O(51) erg or 1O(44) J) are both debated, with one class of models primarily requiring a large rotational energy(3,4) and the other requiring very massive progenitors that either convert kinetic energy into radiation through interaction with circumstellar material (CSM)(5-8 )or engender an explosion caused by pair-instability (loss of photon pressure due to particle-antiparticle production)(9,10). Observing the structure of the CSM around SLSN-I offers a powerful test of some scenarios, although direct observations are scarce(11,)(12). Here, we present a series of spectroscopic observations of the SLSN-I iPTF16eh, which reveal both absorption and time- and frequency-variable emission in the Mg n resonance doublet. We show that these observations are naturally explained as a resonance scattering light echo from a circumstellar shell. Modelling the evolution of the emission, we infer a shell radius of 0.1 pc and velocity of 3,300 km s(-1), implying that the shell was ejected three decades before the supernova explosion. These properties match theoretical predictions of shell ejections occurring because of pulsational pair-instability and imply that the progenitor had a helium core mass of about 50-55 M-circle dot, corresponding to an initial mass of about 115 M-circle dot.
  •  
48.
  • Miller, A. A., et al. (författare)
  • Color Me Intrigued : The Discovery of iPTF 16fnm, an SN 2002cx-like Object
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 848:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • 0 Modern wide-field, optical time-domain surveys must solve a basic optimization problem: maximize the number of transient discoveries or minimize the follow-up needed for the new discoveries. Here, we describe the Color Me Intrigued experiment, the first from the intermediate Palomar Transient Factory (iPTF) to search for transients simultaneously in the g(PTF') and R-PTF bands. During the course of this experiment, we discovered iPTF 16fnm, a new member of the 02cx-like subclass of Type Ia supernovae (SNe). iPTF 16fnm peaked at Mg-PTF = -15.09 +/- 0.17 mag, making it the second-least-luminous known SN Ia. iPTF 16fnm exhibits all the hallmarks of the 02cx-like class: (i) low luminosity at peak, (ii) low ejecta velocities, and (iii) a non-nebular spectrum several months after peak. Spectroscopically, iPTF 16fnm exhibits a striking resemblance to two other low-luminosity 02cx-like SNe: SN. 2007qd and SN 2010ae. iPTF 16fnm and SN 2005hk decline at nearly the same rate, despite a 3 mag difference in brightness at peak. When considering the full subclass of 02cx-like SNe, we do not find evidence for a tight correlation between peak luminosity and decline rate in either the g ' or r ' band. We measure the relative rate of 02cx-like SNe to normal SNe Ia and find r(N02cx/NIa) = 33(-25)(+158)%. We further examine the g ' - r ' evolution of 02cx-like SNe and find that their unique color evolution can be used to separate them from 91bg-like and normal SNe Ia. This selection function will be especially important in the spectroscopically incomplete Zwicky Transient Facility/Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) era. Finally, we close by recommending that LSST periodically evaluate, and possibly update, its observing cadence to maximize transient science.
  •  
49.
  • Mooley, K., et al. (författare)
  • A mildly relativistic wide-angle outflow in the neutron-star merger event GW170817
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 554:7691, s. 207-210
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • GW170817 was the first gravitational-wave detection of a binary neutron-star merger. It was accompanied by radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum and localized to the galaxy NGC 4993 at a distance of 40 megaparsecs. It has been proposed that the observed γ-ray, X-ray and radio emission is due to an ultra-relativistic jet being launched during the merger (and successfully breaking out of the surrounding material), directed away from our line of sight (off-axis). The presence of such a jet is predicted from models that posit neutron-star mergers as the drivers of short hard-γ-ray bursts. Here we report that the radio light curve of GW170817 has no direct signature of the afterglow of an off-axis jet. Although we cannot completely rule out the existence of a jet directed away from the line of sight, the observed γ-ray emission could not have originated from such a jet. Instead, the radio data require the existence of a mildly relativistic wide-angle outflow moving towards us. This outflow could be the high-velocity tail of the neutron-rich material that was ejected dynamically during the merger, or a cocoon of material that breaks out when a jet launched during the merger transfers its energy to the dynamical ejecta. Because the cocoon model explains the radio light curve of GW170817, as well as the γ-ray and X-ray emission (and possibly also the ultraviolet and optical emission), it is the model that is most consistent with the observational data. Cocoons may be a ubiquitous phenomenon produced in neutron-star mergers, giving rise to a hitherto unidentified population of radio, ultraviolet, X-ray and γ-ray transients in the local Universe.
  •  
50.
  • Perley, Daniel A., et al. (författare)
  • The fast, luminous ultraviolet transient AT2018cow : extreme supernova, or disruption of a star by an intermediate-mass black hole?
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 484:1, s. 1031-1049
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Wide-field optical surveys have begun to uncover large samples of fast (t(rise) less than or similar to 5 d), luminous (M-peak < 18), blue transients. While commonly attributed to the breakout of a supernova shock into a dense wind, the great distances to the transients of this class found so far have hampered detailed investigation of their properties. We present photometry and spectroscopy from a comprehensive worldwide campaign to observe AT 2018cow (ATLAS 18qqn), the first fast-luminous optical transient to be found in real time at low redshift. Our first spectra (<2 days after discovery) are entirely featureless. A very broad absorption feature suggestive of near-relativistic velocities develops between 3 and 8 days, then disappears. Broad emission features of H and He develop after >10 days. The spectrum remains extremely hot throughout its evolution, and the photospheric radius contracts with time (receding below R < 10 (14) cm after 1 month). This behaviour does not match that of any known supernova, although a relativistic jet within a fallback supernova could explain some of the observed features. Alternatively, the transient could originate from the disruption of a star by an intermediate-mass black hole, although this would require long-lasting emission of highly super-Eddington thermal radiation. In either case, AT 2018cow suggests that the population of fast luminous transients represents a new class of astrophysical event. Intensive follow-up of this event in its late phases, and of any future events found at comparable distance, will be essential to better constrain their origins.
  •  
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