| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Singh, Shaktiman, et al.
(författare)
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Changing climate and glacio-hydrology in Indian Himalayan Region : a review
- 2016
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Ingår i: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. - : Wiley. - 1757-7780 .- 1757-7799. ; 7:3, s. 393-410
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study presents a comprehensive review of the published literature on the evidences of a changing climate in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) and its impacts on the glacio-hydrology of the region. The IHR serves as an important source of fresh water for the densely populated areas downstream. It is evident from the available studies that temperature is significantly increasing in all parts of the IHR, whereas precipitation is not indicative of any particular spatiotemporal trend. Glacio-hydrological proxies for changing climate, such as, terminus and areal changes of the glaciers, glacier mass balance, and streamflow in downstream areas, highlight changes more evidently in recent decades. On an average, studies have predicted an increase in temperature and precipitation in the region, along with increase in streamflow of major rivers. Such trends are already apparent in some sub-basins of the western IHR. The region is particularly vulnerable to changing climate as it is highly dependent on snow and glacier melt run-off to meet its freshwater demands. We present a systematic review of key papers dealing with changing temperature, precipitation, glaciers, and streamflow in the IHR. We discuss these interdisciplinary themes in relation to each other, in order to establish the present and future impacts of climatic, glaciological, and hydrological changes in the region.
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| 5. |
- Kumar, Arvind, et al.
(författare)
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Frequency dependent changes in NMDAR-dependent synaptic plasticity
- 2011
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1662-5188. ; 5:38
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The NMDAR-dependent synaptic plasticity is thought to mediate several forms of learning, and can be induced by spike trains containing a small number of spikes occurring with varying rates and timing, as well as with oscillations. We computed the influence of these variables on the plasticity induced at a single NMDAR containing synapse using a reduced model that was analytically tractable, and these findings were confirmed using detailed, multi-compartment model. In addition to explaining diverse experimental results about the rate and timing dependence of synaptic plasticity, the model made several novel and testable predictions. We found that there was a preferred frequency for inducing long-term potentiation (LTP) such that higher frequency stimuli induced lesser LTP, decreasing as 1/f when the number of spikes in the stimulus was kept fixed. Among other things, the preferred frequency for inducing LTP varied as a function of the distance of the synapse from the soma. In fact, same stimulation frequencies could induce LTP or long-term depression depending on the dendritic location of the synapse. Next, we found that rhythmic stimuli induced greater plasticity then irregular stimuli. Furthermore, brief bursts of spikes significantly expanded the timing dependence of plasticity. Finally, we found that in the ~5-15-Hz frequency range both rate- and timing-dependent plasticity mechanisms work synergistically to render the synaptic plasticity most sensitive to spike timing. These findings provide computational evidence that oscillations can have a profound influence on the plasticity of an NMDAR-dependent synapse, and show a novel role for the dendritic morphology in this process.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Kumar, Mayank, et al.
(författare)
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Changes in friction of zinc flake coated threaded fasteners due to humidity, temperature and storage duration
- 2022
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Ingår i: Tribology International. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-679X .- 1879-2464. ; 170, s. 107498-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The friction coefficient of a specific material combination is often assumed to be invariant in manufacturing processes such as during the tightening of threaded fastener joints. This paper considers the impact of storage conditions on threaded fastener friction. Fasteners were stored in hot humid and sub-zero temperature conditions to study friction in the thread and under-head contacts. Four Zn-flake coatings, commonly used in the automotive industry were considered. Consequent tightening of these fasteners at room temperature revealed that storage history had a significant impact on their friction coefficients, halving under-head friction in some cases. This varied behavior was considered to be a response to coating nano-hardness and structure and differences in adsorption/absorption of water and zinc-oxide formation during storage.
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| 8. |
- Kumar, Mayank, 1991-
(författare)
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Friction in threaded fasteners : Influence of materials and tooling
- 2022
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Threaded fasteners represent the most common type of machine element, with a unique function that facilitates ease of assembly and disassembly. This ease of disassembly allows machine parts to be reused, refurbished, and recycled. Easy as these components are to assemble, several factors must be considered to achieve the desired clamp force and to utilize the fastener to its full load capacity. The research presented in the thesis compares different tightening strategies and assembly tools to show that the clamp force and it´s scatter are influenced by the variation in the coefficient of friction (CoF) to a much larger extent than by the accuracy of an assembly tool. The research therefore focus on understanding the frictional response in a threaded fastener joint during tightening.A range of design and assembly factors are considered to identify how to increase reliability of the threaded fastener joints. These factors include tightening speed, coating, surface topography, fastener storage conditions, cutting fluid residue and joint material. A torque-controlled, two-step tightening method was mainly used in the studies as it is widely practiced across the production floor of the motor vehicle and general industries to tighten threaded fastener joints. A state-of-the-art friction test rig (FTR) was built to quantify variations in the CoF in the thread and under-head contacts during tightening. Coatings and contact surfaces are also characterized using SEM, FIB, indenters, and optical microscopes to gain an insight to find the likely reasons behind CoF variation. Fasteners with different Zn-based coatings were tightened on plates with surface topographies similar to those found in the motor vehicle industry. The samples were not cleaned before the testing but used "as-received" from the supplier. The degree of damage to the joint surface and fastener thread from the tightening depends on the hardness of the coating. The hardest coating (Zn-Ni) remained relatively unchanged but gave twice as high CoF in the under-head contact compared to the softest coating (Zn-flake). The under-head friction often dominates the tightening process and may be significantly affected by the joint surface topography and the level of cleanliness. In the automotive industry, many parts to be assembled are not thoroughly cleaned, increasing the risk of cutting fluid residue on the joint surface. Different types of cutting fluids were compared in a study with fasteners tightened against “as-received" and cleaned plates. It was shown that CoF might drastically decrease depending on the coating and cutting fluid types. An ester-based fluid performed best, providing the lowest CoF in the under-head contact due to its higher viscosity and polarity. A water-based fluid showed a significantly larger scatter. Water can also influence friction due differences in humidity and temperature. Sometimes fasteners are stored outside a factory which could lead to water diffusion in the coating in hot-humid climate or condensation of water on the fastener surface when it is brought from the outside storage at sub-zero temperatures into the production hall. Water on the coating and inside of it could lead to low CoF, with overtightening and fastener failure as a result. Four Zn-based coatings were compared and showed different response depending on the coating structure and topcoat. Another way to reduce CoF is to use variable speed tightening. It will also increase productivity, as it is faster. It will also improve operator ergonomics, as it gives much lower reaction torque. Much higher CoF was found for EPZ coating when tightened at a constant and very low speed, 5 rpm, due to cohesion that resulted in material transfer, compared to CoF during high, variable speed tightening. At the same time, speed had negligible influence on the CoF when using soft Zn-flake coating as the coating easily sheared off, acting as a solid lubricant.A soft coating is also practical when used in contact with parts made using additive manufacturing (AM). The AM parts are often rough, but a soft coating can mitigate an increase in the under-head CoF. An interesting finding was that the cheapest solution of using an uncoated fastener works very well. An anti-corrosion oil on the plain fastener helped in achieving low CoF. When the AM plate was machined, the CoF and surface damage significantly increased due to the lay of the surface topography created by machining. The findings presented in the thesis increase understanding of how various design and assembly factors govern friction in the thread and under-head contacts. The under-head contact dominates friction response. A proper selection and adjustment of these factors will help design engineers to optimize joint designs and achieve high fastener strength utilization.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Kumar, Mayank, 1991-, et al.
(författare)
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Influence of cutting fluid on reliability of threaded fastener joints
- 2019
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Ingår i: SAE technical paper series. - 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States : SAE International. - 0148-7191. ; :December
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study reports on the effect of cutting fluids on friction behavior of the threaded fasteners. Underhead and thread friction are measured during tightening process of the hex-head threaded fasteners coated with different zinc-based coatings: electroplated zinc, zinc flake, and electroplated zinc nickel, commonly used in the automotive industry. The tests and data analysis are conducted considering ISO 16047 as a baseline. Test conditions are set close to the actual production conditions found in the motor vehicle industry. Water-based and ester-based cutting fluids are selected to unveil their impact on the reliability of the threaded fastener joints. It is shown that a change in the underhead interface conditions from dry to lubricated drastically reduces friction for the electroplated zinc and zinc nickel coatings.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Lindblad-Toh, Kerstin, et al.
(författare)
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Genome sequence, comparative analysis and haplotype structure of the domestic dog.
- 2005
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 438:7069, s. 803-19
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Here we report a high-quality draft genome sequence of the domestic dog (Canis familiaris), together with a dense map of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across breeds. The dog is of particular interest because it provides important evolutionary information and because existing breeds show great phenotypic diversity for morphological, physiological and behavioural traits. We use sequence comparison with the primate and rodent lineages to shed light on the structure and evolution of genomes and genes. Notably, the majority of the most highly conserved non-coding sequences in mammalian genomes are clustered near a small subset of genes with important roles in development. Analysis of SNPs reveals long-range haplotypes across the entire dog genome, and defines the nature of genetic diversity within and across breeds. The current SNP map now makes it possible for genome-wide association studies to identify genes responsible for diseases and traits, with important consequences for human and companion animal health.
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| 13. |
- Persson, Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Clamp Force Accuracy in Threaded Fastener Joints Using Different Torque Control Tightening Strategies
- 2021
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Ingår i: SAE technical paper series. - 400 Commonwealth Drive, Warrendale, PA, United States : SAE International. - 0148-7191. ; :2021
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The assembly of threaded fasteners may seem straightforward. However, there are many factors to consider to achieve quality tightened joints, including the joint material, threaded fastener, and coatings. Additionally, there are many assembly tool types and torque application strategies to choose from. This investigation studies the tightening speed dynamics when using torque as a control method. The clamp force obtained in the joint changes when tightening at high speed or when the speed varies greatly during tightening. This type of tightening is called highly dynamic. Highly dynamic torque control tightening strategies are studied, such as impact, pulse, and inertia-controlled methods, and compared with the continuous drive strategy, which is a standard dynamic torque tightening method. The clamp force and its scatter caused by the torque accuracy in the assembly tool type are investigated for the abovementioned torque application strategies. The study also focuses on the different results obtained from the International Organization for Standardization’s (ISO) 16047:2005 (Fasteners-Torque/clamp force testing) standard compared to a production-like setup.
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| 14. |
- Shakya, Snehlata, et al.
(författare)
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Deep Learning Algorithm for Satellite Imaging Based Cyclone Detection
- 2020
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Ingår i: IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing. - 1939-1404. ; 13, s. 827-839
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Satellite images are primary data in weather prediction modeling. Deep learning-based approach, a viable candidate for automatic image processing, requires large sets of annotated data with diverse characteristics for training purposes. Accuracy of weather prediction improves with data having a relatively dense temporal resolution. We have employed interpolation and data augmentation techniques for enhancement of the temporal resolution and diversifications of characters in a given dataset. Algorithm requires classical approaches during preprocessing steps. Three optical flow methods using 14 different constraint optimization techniques and five error estimates are tested here. The artificially enriched data (optimal combination from the previous exercise) are used as a training set for a convolutional neural network to classify images in terms of storm or nonstorm. Several cyclone data (eight cyclone datasets of a different class) were used for training. A deep learning model is trained and tested with artificially densified and classified storm data for cyclone classification and locating the cyclone vortex giving minimum 90% and 84% accuracy, respectively. In the final step, we show that the linear regression method can be used for predicting the path.
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| 15. |
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