| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Cross-disciplinary research in analytic decision support systems
- 2006
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Ingår i: ITI 2006. - Zagreb : University Computing Centre SRCE, University of Zagreb. - 9537138054 ; , s. 123-128
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A main problem in nearly all contexts is that unguided decision making is tremendously difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to such from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. However, a key observation is that efficient decision making is not easily performed by using methods from one discipline only. The case is rather that if real world decision making is taken seriously, several aspects must be included. This article describes some efforts of the DECIDE research group for approaching decision making and developing DSSs in a cross-disciplinary environment.
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| 3. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Cross-Disciplinary Research in Analytic Decision Support Systems
- 2006
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Ingår i: ITI 2006. - Zagreb : University Computing Centre SRCE, University of Zagreb. - 9537138054 ; , s. 123-128
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- A main problem in decision support contexts is that unguided decision making is difficult and can lead to inefficient decision processes and undesired consequences. Therefore, decision support systems (DSSs) are of prime concern to any organization and there have been numerous approaches to delivering decision support from, e.g., computational, mathematical, financial, philosophical, psychological, and sociological angles. A key observation, however, is that effective and efficient decision making is not easily achieved by using methods from one discipline only. This paper describes some efforts made by the DECIDE Research Group to approach DSS development and decision making tools in a cross-disciplinary way.
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| 4. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Distribution of Belief in Decision Trees
- 2007
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Ingår i: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. - 0888-613X .- 1873-4731. ; 46:2, s. pp. 387-407
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 5. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Distribution of expected utility in decision trees
- 2007
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Ingår i: International Journal of Approximate Reasoning. - : Elsevier BV. - 0888-613X .- 1873-4731. ; 46:2, s. 387-407
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Evaluation of decision trees in which uncertain information is present is complicated. Especially when the tree has some depth, i.e. consists of more than one level, the effects of the choice of representation and evaluation procedures are significant. Second-order representation and evaluation may significantly increase a decisionmaker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. Furthermore, due to the effects on the distribution of belief over the intervals of expected utilities, the Gamma-maximin decision rule seems to be unnecessarily pessimistic as the belief in neighbourhoods of points near interval boundaries is usually lower than in neighbourhoods near the centre. Due to this, a generalized expected utility is proposed. The results in this paper apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order information, such as standard decision trees or probabilistic networks using only first-order concepts, for example upper and lower bounds. Furthermore, the results also apply to other, non-probabilistic weighted trees such as multi-criteria weight trees.
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| 6. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Public Decision Support - Using a DSS to Increase Democratic Transparency
- 2005
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Information Systems. - Sundsvall : Mittuniversitetet. - 1653-4360. ; 1:1, s. 3-25
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a case study in which a decision support method (ADL) was employed by a local government in order to guide and aid decisions on three complicated and politically infected issues which had remained unresolved for many years. The research inquiry was whether a well-defined and openly accessible method would aid a common understanding of the decision problems, and whether people would be able to accept a clearly motivated decision even if politically they preferred a different option. The ADL method has been used in several public sector projects ranging from very large purchasing decisions to the selection of national policies, but this test case was novel in that it involved close inspection by the public. This case was also devised as a test of new methods for potential inclusion into normal practices. The post-case analysis shows mixed understanding of and belief in the method. The results raise issues concerning both the potential for decision support methods in a political context and the nature of political decision making.
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| 7. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(författare)
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Structured eDemocracy beyond eDiscussion
- 2009
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Ingår i: Proceedings of eChallenges 2009.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a case showing how the use of a transparent decision support model can increase the effectiveness of the preparatory, analysis and negotiation stages of a democratic decision process. The case is of a democratic decision process taking advantage of a transparent decision support model, which may be extended to also include participatory elements in a well-defined manner. The support methods must allow for decision modelling with respect to different preferences and views, which further can be adjusted in an interactive fashion when considering calculated decision outcomes.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
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Using a Software Tool for Public Decision Analysis Analysis : the Case of Nacka Municipality
- 2007
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Ingår i: Decision Analysis. - : INFORMS/Highwire Press. - 1545-8490 .- 1545-8504. ; 4(2), s. 76-90
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a case of interval decision analysis using a tool that takes advantage of interval probabilities, values, and criteria weights, and is capable of handling comparative relations, i.e. interval statements on differences between variables. These statements are represented as constraints to the solution set and evaluated using a number of different evaluation methods, each serving the decision-maker with different insights of the decision problem. We demonstrate the applicability of the tool in a case study regarding three public infrastructure decision problems which had remained unresolved during a number of years.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
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Distributions over Expected Utilities in Decision Analysis
- 2007
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Ingår i: ISIPTA 2007 - Proceedings of the 5th International Symposium on Imprecise Probability: Theories and Applications. - 9788086742205 ; , s. 175-182
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is often recognised that in real-life decision situations, classical utility theory puts too strong requirements on the decision-maker. Various interval approaches for decision making have therefore been developed and these have been reasonably successful. However, a problem that sometimes appears in real-life situations is that the result of an evaluation still has an uncertainty about which alternative is to prefer. This is due to expected utility overlaps rendering discrimination more difficult. In this article we discuss how adding second-order information may increase a decision-maker�s understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams.
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| 13. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
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Second order effects in interval valued decision graph models
- 2005
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, FLAIRS 2005 - Recent Advances in Artifical Intelligence. - : AAAI Press. - 1577352343 ; , s. 728-733
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Second-order calculations may significantly increase a decision maker's understanding of a decision situation when handling aggregations of imprecise representations, as is the case in decision trees or influence diagrams, while the use of only first-order results gives an incomplete picture. The results apply also to approaches which do not explicitly deal with second-order distributions, instead using only first-order concepts such as upper and lower bounds.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
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Second-order risk constraints
- 2008
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 21th International Florida Artificial Intelligence Research Society Conference, FLAIRS-21. - Menlo Park : AAAI Press. - 9781577353652 ; , s. 637-642
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper discusses how numerically imprecise information can be modelled and how a risk evaluation process can be elaborated by integrating procedures for numerically imprecise probabilities and utilities. More recently, representations and methods for stating and analysing probabilities and values (utilities) with belief distributions over them (second order representations) have been suggested. In this paper, we are discussing some shortcomings in the use of the principle of maximising the expected utility and of utility theory in general, and offer remedies by the introduction of supplementary decision rules based on a concept of risk constraints taking advantage of second-order distributions.
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| 16. |
- Ekenberg, Love, 1962-, et al.
(författare)
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The Lack of Transparency in Public Decision Processes
- 2009
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Information Systems. - Sundsvall : Mid Sweden University. - 1653-4360. ; 5:1, s. 1-8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We discuss the lack of transparency and use of elaborated decision methods in public decision processes. The decision regarding new roads in the greater Stockholm area has been used as a significant example.
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| 17. |
- Idefeldt, Jim, et al.
(författare)
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Preference ordering algorithms with imprecise expectations
- 2006
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Ingår i: Lect. Notes Eng. Comput. Sci.. - 9789889867133 ; , s. 750-755, s. 750-755
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In imprecise domains the preference order of the alternatives is not straightforward to establish, due to possible overlapping of expected values among the alternatives. Nevertheless, such rankings are useful in decision analysis applications, as obtaining a ranking of alternatives is a way to gain an overview of the situation. The rankings presented in this paper represent overviews of a preference order of the alternatives based on their respective expected utility. The ranking can be either ordinal, focusing only on the ordering, or cardinal, also taking the differences in expected utility into account. The first set of procedures discussed is a cardinal ranking, which provides the user with expected utility intervals of the evaluated alternatives. This yields a more extensive overview with more detailed information. The second set of procedures discussed ordinal rankings of the alternatives based on three different approaches; 1) contraction based ranking, 2) intersection based ranking, and 3) focal point based ranking with indifference level. Finally, we show that regardless of ranking method their respective maximal elements all conform to the maximal element of the ordinal ranking. Hence, if the intention is to find a maximal element, it is sufficient to use either pointwise cardinal ranking or ordinal ranking with zero as indifference level.
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
- Larsson, Aron, et al.
(författare)
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Decision analysis with multiple objectives in a framework for evaluating imprecision
- 2005
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Ingår i: International Journal of Uncertainty Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems. - 0218-4885. ; 13:5, s. 495-509
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a decision tree evaluation method for analyzing multi-attribute decisions under risk, where information is numerically imprecise. The approach extends the use of additive and multiplicative utility functions for supporting evaluation of imprecise statements, relaxing requirements for precise estimates of decision parameters. Information is modeled in convex sets of utility and probability measures restricted by closed intervals. Evaluation is done relative to a set of rules, generalizing the concept of admissibility, computationally handled through optimization of aggregated utility functions. Pros and cons of two approaches, and tradeoffs in selecting a utility function, are discussed.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
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| 23. |
- Larsson, Aron, et al.
(författare)
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Non-uniform belief in expected utilities in interval decision analysis
- 2005
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Ingår i: Proc. Int. Florida Artif. Intell. Res. Soc. Conf. Recent Adv. Artif. Intell.. - : AAAI Press. - 1577352343 - 9781577352341 ; , s. 740-745
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper demonstrates that second-order calculations add information about expected utilities when modeling imprecise information in decision models as intervals and employing the principle of maximizing the expected utility. Furthermore, due to the resulting warp in the distribution of belief over the intervals of expected utilities, the conservative Γ-maximin decision rule seems to be unnecessarily conservative and pessimistic as the belief in neighborhoods of points near interval boundaries is significantly lower than in neigh-borhoods near the centre. Due to this, a generalized expected utility is proposed.
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| 24. |
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| 25. |
- Larsson, Aron, et al.
(författare)
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Representation and Evaluation of Influence Diagrams in a Common Framework for Interval Decision Analysis
- 2006
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Ingår i: Proceedings of IMECS 2006. - 9889867133 ; , s. 738-743
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper present a method for inclusion of influence diagrams within a common framework for analysing decisions under risk supporting interval-valued user statements. The method of inclusion support both modeling and evaluation, and the evaluation is performed through a conversion of influence diagrams into decision tree frames holding symmetric decision trees. The qualitative and explicit modeling of probabilistic independence cause implicit comparative constraints between variables, constraints which must not be violated in order to obtain correct evaluation results.
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| 26. |
- Riabacke, Ari, et al.
(författare)
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A study about different strategies in risk elicitation
- 2006
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Ingår i: Lect. Notes Eng. Comput. Sci.. - 9789889867133 ; , s. 1-6, s. 1-6
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a study focusing on deviations from normative behavior in risk elicitation. Such deviations have implications on the process of eliciting reliable input data in applications of decision analysis. No existing elicitation method seems to be universally useful based on the findings made in this study. Since people obviously do not act in accordance with the normative rules, and different choice strategies have been identified, a prescriptive approach with individual assistance of the decision makers in the elicitation process thus seems to be necessary.
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| 27. |
- Riabacke, Ari, et al.
(författare)
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How different Choice Strategies Can Affect the Risk Elicitation Process
- 2006
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Ingår i: IAENG International Journal of Computer Science. - 1819-656X .- 1819-9224. ; 32:4, s. 460-465
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper presents a study focusing on deviations from normative behavior in risk elicitation. Such deviations haveimplications on the process of eliciting reliable input data in applications of decision analysis. No existing elicitation method seems to be universally useful based on the findings made in this study. Since people obviously do not act in accordance with the normative rules, and different choice strategies have been identified, a prescriptive approach with individual assistance of the decision makers in the elicitation process thus seems to benecessary.
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| 28. |
- Riabacke, Mona, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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A Prescriptive Approach for Eliciting Imprecise Weight Statements in an MCDA Process
- 2009
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Ingår i: Lecture Notes in Computer Science Volume 5783. - Berlin / Heidelberg : Springer. - 9783642044274 ; , s. 168-179
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this article, we discuss decision making involving multiple objectives (MCDA) and especially the lack of more prescriptively useful elicitation methods for weights within MCDA. We highlight the discrepancy between how elicitation is handled in current decision analysis applications and the abilities of real decision-makers to provide what is required from them. Based on theory and highlighted problems with current methods, we propose a novel approach for weight elicitation which relaxes the need for numeric preciseness from decision-makers and reduces some of the practical issues related to such processes. The method is tested in a comparative study, as well as employed in a real-life case study.
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| 29. |
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