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1.
  • Thomas, HS, et al. (författare)
  • 2019
  • swepub:Mat__t
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  • Barber, R. M., et al. (författare)
  • Healthcare Access and Quality Index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: a novel analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r= 0.88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r= 0.83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r= 0.77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28.6 to 94.6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39.0-42.8) in 1990 to 53.7 (52.2-55.4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21.2 in 1990 to 20.1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73.8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-systemcharacteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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4.
  • Barber, R. M., et al. (författare)
  • Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015 : A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10091, s. 231-266
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world. Copyright © The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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5.
  • Wang, H. D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Sociodemographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled. Copyright (C) The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Fullman, N., et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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  • Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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  • Lozano, Rafael, et al. (författare)
  • Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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13.
  • Vos, Theo, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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14.
  • Naghavi, Mohsen, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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15.
  • Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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16.
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17.
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18.
  • Uy, G. L., et al. (författare)
  • Contribution of chemotherapy mobilization to disease control in multiple myeloma treated with autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Bone Marrow Transplantation. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0268-3369 .- 1476-5365. ; 50:12, s. 1513-1518
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In patients with multiple myeloma (MM) undergoing autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (auto-HCT), peripheral blood progenitor cells may be collected following mobilization with growth factor alone (GF) or cytotoxic chemotherapy plus GF (CC+GF). It is uncertain whether the method of mobilization affects post-transplant outcomes. We compared these mobilization strategies in a retrospective analysis of 968 patients with MM from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database who received an auto-Ha in the US and Canada between 2007 and 2012. The kinetics of neutrophil engraftment (>= 0.5 x 10(9)/L) was similar between groups (13 vs 13 days, P=0.69) while platelet engraftment (>= 20 x 10(9)/L) was slightly faster with CC+GF (19 vs 18 days, P=0.006). Adjusted 3-year PFS was 43% (95% confidence interval (CI) 38-48) in GF and 40% (95% CI 35-45) in CC+GF, P=0.33. Adjusted 3-year OS was 82% (95% CI 78-86) vs 80% (95% CI 75-84), P=0.43 and adjusted 5-year OS was 62% (95% CI 54-68) vs 60% (95% CI 52-67), P=0.76, for GF and CC+GF, respectively. We conclude that MM patients undergoing auto-Ha have similar outcomes irrespective of the method of mobilization and found no evidence that the addition of chemotherapy to mobilization contributes to disease control.
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19.
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20.
  • Getahun, H, et al. (författare)
  • Management of latent Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: WHO guidelines for low tuberculosis burden countries
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: The European respiratory journal. - : European Respiratory Society (ERS). - 1399-3003 .- 0903-1936. ; 46:6, s. 1563-1576
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is characterised by the presence of immune responses to previously acquired Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection without clinical evidence of active tuberculosis (TB). Here we report evidence-based guidelines from the World Health Organization for a public health approach to the management of LTBI in high risk individuals in countries with high or middle upper income and TB incidence of <100 per 100 000 per year. The guidelines strongly recommend systematic testing and treatment of LTBI in people living with HIV, adult and child contacts of pulmonary TB cases, patients initiating anti-tumour necrosis factor treatment, patients receiving dialysis, patients preparing for organ or haematological transplantation, and patients with silicosis. In prisoners, healthcare workers, immigrants from high TB burden countries, homeless persons and illicit drug users, systematic testing and treatment of LTBI is conditionally recommended, according to TB epidemiology and resource availability. Either commercial interferon-gamma release assays or Mantoux tuberculin skin testing could be used to test for LTBI. Chest radiography should be performed before LTBI treatment to rule out active TB disease. Recommended treatment regimens for LTBI include: 6 or 9 month isoniazid; 12 week rifapentine plus isoniazid; 3–4 month isoniazid plus rifampicin; or 3–4 month rifampicin alone.
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21.
  • Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al. (författare)
  • Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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22.
  • Marenholz, I, et al. (författare)
  • Meta-analysis identifies seven susceptibility loci involved in the atopic march
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 6, s. 8804-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Eczema often precedes the development of asthma in a disease course called the ‘atopic march’. To unravel the genes underlying this characteristic pattern of allergic disease, we conduct a multi-stage genome-wide association study on infantile eczema followed by childhood asthma in 12 populations including 2,428 cases and 17,034 controls. Here we report two novel loci specific for the combined eczema plus asthma phenotype, which are associated with allergic disease for the first time; rs9357733 located in EFHC1 on chromosome 6p12.3 (OR 1.27; P=2.1 × 10−8) and rs993226 between TMTC2 and SLC6A15 on chromosome 12q21.3 (OR 1.58; P=5.3 × 10−9). Additional susceptibility loci identified at genome-wide significance are FLG (1q21.3), IL4/KIF3A (5q31.1), AP5B1/OVOL1 (11q13.1), C11orf30/LRRC32 (11q13.5) and IKZF3 (17q21). We show that predominantly eczema loci increase the risk for the atopic march. Our findings suggest that eczema may play an important role in the development of asthma after eczema.
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23.
  • Satwani, P., et al. (författare)
  • A prognostic model predicting autologous transplantation outcomes in children, adolescents and young adults with Hodgkin lymphoma
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Bone Marrow Transplantation. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0268-3369 .- 1476-5365. ; 50:11, s. 1416-1423
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (AutoHCT) is a potentially curative treatment modality for relapsed/ refractory Hodgkin lymphoma (HL). However, no large studies have evaluated pretransplant factors predictive of outcomes of AutoHCT in children, adolescents and young adults (CAYA, age < 30 years). In a retrospective study, we analyzed 606 CAYA patients (median age 23 years) with relapsed/refractory HL who underwent AutoHCT between 1995 and 2010. The probabilities of PFS at 1, 5 and 10 years were 66% (95% confidence interval (CI): 62-70), 52% (95% CI: 48-57) and 47% (95% CI: 42-51), respectively. Multivariate analysis for PFS demonstrated that at the time of AutoHCT patients with Karnofsky/Lansky score >= 90, no extranodal involvement and chemosensitive disease had significantly improved PFS. Patients with time from diagnosis to first relapse of < 1 year had a significantly inferior PFS. A prognostic model for PFS was developed that stratified patients into low-, intermediate-and high-risk groups, predicting for 5-year PFS probabilities of 72% (95% CI: 64-80), 53% (95% CI: 47-59) and 23% (95% CI: 9-36), respectively. This large study identifies a group of CAYA patients with relapsed/refractory HL who are at high risk of progression after AutoHCT. Such patients should be targeted for novel therapeutic and/or maintenance approaches post-AutoHCT.
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24.
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25.
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26.
  • Chen, Y-B, et al. (författare)
  • GvHD after umbilical cord blood transplantation for acute leukemia : an analysis of risk factors and effect on outcomes
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Bone Marrow Transplantation. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 0268-3369 .- 1476-5365. ; 52:3, s. 400-408
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) registry, we analyzed 1404 umbilical cord blood transplantation (UCBT) patients (single (>= 18 years) = 810, double (< 18 years) = 594) with acute leukemia to define the incidence of acute GvHD (aGvHD) and chronic GvHD (cGvHD), analyze clinical risk factors and investigate outcomes. After single UCBT, 100-day incidence of grade II-IV aGvHD was 39% (95% confidence interval (CI), 36-43%), grade III-IV aGvHD was 18% (95% CI, 15-20%) and 1-year cGvHD was 27% (95% CI, 24-30%). After double UCBT, 100-day incidence of grade II-IV aGvHD was 45% (95% CI, 41-49%), grade III-IV aGvHD was 22% (95% CI, 19-26%) and 1-year cGvHD was 26% (95% CI, 22-29%). For single UCBT, multivariate analysis showed that absence of antithymocyte globulin (ATG) was associated with aGvHD, whereas prior aGvHD was associated with cGvHD. For double UCBT, absence of ATG and myeloablative conditioning were associated with aGvHD, whereas prior aGvHD predicted for cGvHD. Grade III-IV aGvHD led to worse survival, whereas cGvHD had no significant effect on disease-free or overall survival. GvHD is prevalent after UCBT with severe aGvHD leading to higher mortality. Future research in UCBT should prioritize prevention of GvHD.
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27.
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28.
  • Pasquini, Marcelo C., et al. (författare)
  • Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Outcomes in Monosomal Karyotype Myeloid Malignancies
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 22:2, s. 248-257
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The presence of monosomal karyotype (MK+) in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is associated with dismal outcomes. We evaluated the impact of MK+ in AML (MK+AML, n = 240) and in myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) (MK+MDS, n = 221) on hematopoietic cell transplantation outcomes compared with other cytogenetically defined groups (AML, n = 3360; MDS, n = 1373) as reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research from 1998 to 2011. MK+AML was associated with higher disease relapse (hazard ratio, 1.98; P < .01), similar transplantation-related mortality (TRM) (hazard ratio, 1.01; P = .90), and worse survival (hazard ratio, 1.67; P < .01) compared with those outcomes for other cytogenetically defined AML. Among patients with MDS, MK+ MDS was associated with higher disease relapse (hazard ratio, 2.39; P < .01), higher TRM (hazard ratio, 1.80; P < .01), and worse survival (HR, 2.02; P < .01). Subset analyses comparing chromosome 7 abnormalities (del7/7q) with or without MK+ demonstrated higher mortality for MK+ disease in for both AML (hazard ratio, 1.72; P < .01) and MDS (hazard ratio, 1.79; P < .01). The strong negative impact of MK+ in myeloid malignancies was observed in all age groups and using either myeloablative or reduced-intensity conditioning regimens. Alternative approaches to mitigate disease relapse in this population are needed.
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29.
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30.
  • Kim, Haesook T., et al. (författare)
  • Prognostic Score and Cytogenetic Risk Classification for Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia Patients : Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research Report
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Clinical Cancer Research. - : AMER ASSOC CANCER RESEARCH. - 1078-0432 .- 1557-3265. ; 25:16, s. 5143-5155
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose: To develop a prognostic model and cytogenetic risk classification for previously treated patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) undergoing reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT).Experimental Design: We performed a retrospective analysis of outcomes of 606 patients with CLL who underwent RIC allogeneic HCT between 2008 and 2014 reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research.Results: On the basis of multivariable models, disease status, comorbidity index, lymphocyte count, and white blood cell count at HCT were selected for the development of prognostic model. Using the prognostic score, we stratified patients into low-, intermediate-, high-, and very-high-risk [4-year progression-free survival (PFS) 58%, 42%, 33%, and 25%, respectively, P < 0.0001; 4-year overall survival (OS) 70%, 57%, 54%, and 38%, respectively, P < 0.0001]. We also evaluated karyotypic abnormalities together with del(17p) and found that del(17p) or >= 5 abnormalities showed inferior PFS. Using a multivariable model, we classified cytogenetic risk into low, intermediate, and high (P < 0.0001). When the prognostic score and cytogenetic risk were combined, patients with low prognostic score and low cytogenetic risk had prolonged PFS (61% at 4 years) and OS (75% at 4 years).Conclusions: In this large cohort of patients with previously treated CLL who underwent RIC HCT, we developed a robust prognostic scoring system of HCT outcomes and a novel cytogenetic-based risk stratification system. These prognostic models can be used for counseling patients, comparing data across studies, and providing a benchmark for future interventions. For future study, we will further validate these models for patients receiving targeted therapies prior to HCT.
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31.
  • Norkin, Maxim, et al. (författare)
  • Characteristics of Late Fatal Infections after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 25:2, s. 362-368
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We analyzed late fatal infections (LFIs) in allogeneic stem cell transplantation (HCT) recipients reported to the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research. We analyzed the incidence, infection types, and risk factors contributing to LFI in 10,336 adult and 5088 pediatric subjects surviving for ≥2 years after first HCT without relapse. Among 2245 adult and 377 pediatric patients who died, infections were a primary or contributory cause of death in 687 (31%) and 110 (29%), respectively. At 12 years post-HCT, the cumulative incidence of LFIs was 6.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.8% to 7.0%) in adults, compared with 1.8% (95% CI, 1.4% to 2.3%) in pediatric subjects; P < .001). In adults, the 2 most significant risks for developing LFI were increasing age (20 to 39, 40 to 54, and ≥55 years versus 18 to 19 years) with hazard ratios (HRs) of 3.12 (95% CI, 1.33 to 7.32), 3.86 (95% CI, 1.66 to 8.95), and 5.49 (95% CI, 2.32 to 12.99) and a history of chronic graft-versus-host disease GVHD (cGVHD) with ongoing immunosuppression at 2 years post-HCT compared with no history of GVHD with (HR, 3.87; 95% CI, 2.59 to 5.78). In pediatric subjects, the 3 most significant risks for developing LFI were a history of cGVHD with ongoing immunosuppression (HR, 9.49; 95% CI, 4.39 to 20.51) or without ongoing immunosuppression (HR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.05 to 7.43) at 2 years post-HCT compared with no history of GVHD, diagnosis of inherited abnormalities of erythrocyte function compared with diagnosis of acute myelogenous leukemia (HR, 2.30; 95% CI, 1.19 to 4.42), and age >10 years (HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.15 to 3.2). This study emphasizes the importance of continued vigilance for late infections after HCT and institution of support strategies aimed at decreasing the risk of cGVHD.
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32.
  • Radivoyevitch, Tomas, et al. (författare)
  • Risk of acute myeloid leukemia and myelodysplastic syndrome after autotransplants for lymphomas and plasma cell myeloma
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Leukemia Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0145-2126 .- 1873-5835. ; 74, s. 130-136
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Exposures to DNA-damaging drugs and ionizing radiations increase risks of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS).Methods: 9028 recipients of hematopoietic cell autotransplants (1995-2010) for Hodgkin lymphoma (HL; n=916), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL; n=3546) and plasma cell myeloma (PCM; n=4566), reported to the CIBMTR, were analyzed for risk of subsequent AML or MDS.Results: 335 MDS/ AML cases were diagnosed posttransplant (3.7%). Variables associated with an increased risk for AML or MDS in multivariate analyses were: (1) conditioning with total body radiation versus chemotherapy alone for HL (HR=4.0; 95% confidence interval [1.4, 11.6]) and NHL (HR=2.5 [1.1, 2.5]); (2) >= 3 versus 1 line of chemotherapy for NHL (HR=1.9 [1.3, 2.8]); and (3) subjects with NHL transplanted in 2005-2010 versus 1995-1999 (HR=2.1 [1.5, 3.1]). Using Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data, we found risks for AML/ MDS in HL, NHL and PCM to be 5-10 times the background rate. In contrast, relative risks were 10-50 for AML and approximately 100 for MDS in the autotransplant cohort.Conclusions: There are substantial risks of AML and MDS after autotransplants for HL, NHL and PCM.
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33.
  • Sator, Lea, et al. (författare)
  • Overdiagnosis of COPD in Subjects With Unobstructed Spirometry A BOLD Analysis
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Chest. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-3692 .- 1931-3543. ; 156:2, s. 277-288
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: There are several reports on underdiagnosis of COPD, while little is known about COPD overdiagnosis and overtreatment. We describe the overdiagnosis and the prevalence of spirometrically defined false positive COPD, as well as their relationship with overtreatment across 23 population samples in 20 countries participating in the BOLD Study between 2003 and 2012.METHODS: A false positive diagnosis of COPD was considered when participants reported a doctor's diagnosis of COPD, but postbronchodilator spirometry was unobstructed (FEV1/FVC > LLN). Additional analyses were performed using the fixed ratio criterion (FEV1/FVC < 0.7).RESULTS: Among 16,177 participants, 919 (5.7%) reported a previous medical diagnosis of COPD. Postbronchodilator spirometry was unobstructed in 569 subjects (61.9%): false positive COPD. A similar rate of overdiagnosis was seen when using the fixed ratio criterion (55.3%). In a subgroup analysis excluding participants who reported a diagnosis of "chronic bronchitis" or "emphysema" (n = 220), 37.7% had no airflow limitation. The site-specific prevalence of false positive COPD varied greatly, from 1.9% in low- to middle-income countries to 4.9% in high-income countries. In multivariate analysis, overdiagnosis was more common among women, and was associated with higher education; former and current smoking; the presence of wheeze, cough, and phlegm; and concomitant medical diagnosis of asthma or heart disease. Among the subjects with false positive COPD, 45.7% reported current use of respiratory medication. Excluding patients with reported asthma, 34.4% of those with normal spirometry still used a respiratory medication.CONCLUSIONS: False positive COPD is frequent. This might expose nonobstructed subjects to possible adverse effects of respiratory medication.
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34.
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35.
  • Zeiser, R., et al. (författare)
  • Ruxolitinib in corticosteroid-refractory graft-versus-host disease after allogeneic stem cell transplantation: a multicenter survey
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Leukemia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0887-6924 .- 1476-5551. ; 29:10, s. 2062-2068
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Despite major improvements in allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation over the past decades, corticosteroid-refractory (SR) acute (a) and chronic (c) graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) cause high mortality. Preclinical evidence indicates the potent anti-inflammatory properties of the JAK1/2 inhibitor ruxolitinib. In this retrospective survey, 19 stem cell transplant centers in Europe and the United States reported outcome data from 95 patients who had received ruxolitinib as salvage therapy for SR-GVHD. Patients were classified as having SR-aGVHD (n = 54, all grades III or IV) or SR-cGVHD (n = 41, all moderate or severe). The median number of previous GVHD-therapies was 3 for both SR-aGVHD (1-7) and SR-cGVHD (1-10). The overall response rate was 81.5% (44/54) in SR-aGVHD including 25 complete responses (46.3%), while for SR-cGVHD the ORR was 85.4% (35/41). Of those patients responding to ruxolitinib, the rate of GVHD-relapse was 6.8% (3/44) and 5.7% (2/35) for SR-aGVHD and SR-cGVHD, respectively. The 6-month-survival was 79% (67.3-90.7%, 95% confidence interval (CI)) and 97.4% (92.3-100%, 95% CI) for SR-aGVHD and SR-cGVHD, respectively. Cytopenia and cytomegalovirus-reactivation were observed during ruxolitinib treatment in both SR-aGVHD (30/54, 55.6% and 18/54, 33.3%) and SR-cGVHD (7/41, 17.1% and 6/41, 14.6%) patients. Ruxolitinib may constitute a promising new treatment option for SR-aGVHD and SR-cGVHD that should be validated in a prospective trial.
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36.
  • Holmer, H., et al. (författare)
  • Evaluating the collection, comparability and findings of six global surgery indicators
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: British Journal of Surgery. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0007-1323 .- 1365-2168. ; 106:2, s. 138-150
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: In 2015, six indicators were proposed to evaluate global progress towards access to safe, affordable and timely surgical and anaesthesia care. Although some have been adopted as core global health indicators, none has been evaluated systematically. The aims of this study were to assess the availability, comparability and utility of the indicators, and to present available data and updated estimates. Methods: Nationally representative data were compiled for all WHO member states from 2010 to 2016 through contacts with official bodies and review of the published and grey literature, and available databases. Availability, comparability and utility were assessed for each indicator: access to timely essential surgery, specialist surgical workforce density, surgical volume, perioperative mortality, and protection against impoverishing and catastrophic expenditure. Where feasible, imputation models were developed to generate global estimates. Results: Of all WHO member states, 19 had data on the proportion of the population within 2h of a surgical facility, 154 had data on workforce density, 72 reported number of procedures, and nine had perioperative mortality data, but none could report data on catastrophic or impoverishing expenditure. Comparability and utility were variable, and largely dependent on different definitions used. There were sufficient data to estimate that worldwide, in 2015, there were 2 038 947 (i.q.r. 1 884 916–2 281 776) surgeons, obstetricians and anaesthetists, and 266·1 (95 per cent c.i. 220·1 to 344·4) million operations performed. Conclusion: Surgical and anaesthesia indicators are increasingly being adopted by the global health community, but data availability remains low. Comparability and utility for all indicators require further resolution.
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37.
  • Holmes, N. P., et al. (författare)
  • Nano-pathways: Bridging the divide between water-processable nanoparticulate and bulk heterojunction organic photovoltaics
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Nano Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 2211-2855. ; 19, s. 495-510
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Here we report the application of a conjugated copolymer based on thiophene and quinoxaline units, namely poly[2,3-bis-(3-octyloxyphenyl)quinoxaline-5,8-diyl-alt-thiophene-2,5-di yl] (TQ1), to nanoparticle organic photovoltaics (NP-OPVs). TQ1 exhibits more desirable material properties for NP-OPV fabrication and operation, particularly a high glass transition temperature (T-g) and amorphous nature, compared to the commonly applied semicrystalline polymer poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT). This study reports the optimisation of TQ1:PC71BM (phenyl C-71 butyric acid methyl ester) NP-OPV device performance by the application of mild thermal annealing treatments in the range of the T-g (sub-T-g and post-T-g), both in the active layer drying stage and post-cathode deposition annealing stage of device fabrication, and an in-depth study of the effect of these treatments on nanoparticle film morphology. In addition, we report a type of morphological evolution in nanoparticle films for OPV active layers that has not previously-been observed, that of PC71BM nano-pathway formation between dispersed PC71BM-rich nanoparticle cores, which have the benefit of making the bulk film more conducive to charge percolation and extraction.
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38.
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39.
  • Mahindra, Anuj, et al. (författare)
  • New Cancers after Autotransplantations for Multiple Myeloma
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : Elsevier BV. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 21:4, s. 738-745
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • We describe baseline incidence and risk factors for new cancers in 4161 persons receiving autotransplants for multiple myeloma in the United States from 1990 to 2010. Observed incidence of invasive new cancers was compared with expected incidence relative to the US population. The cohort represented 13,387 person-years at-risk. In total, 163 new cancers were observed, for a crude incidence rate of 1.2 new cancers per 100 person-years and cumulative incidences of 2.6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.09 to 3.17), 4.2% (95% CI, 3.49 to 5.00), and 6.1% (95% CI, 5.08 to 7.24) at 3, 5, and 7 years, respectively. The incidence of new cancers in the autotransplantation cohort was similar to age-, race-, and gender-adjusted comparison subjects with an observed/expected (O/E) ratio of 1.00 (99% CI, .81 to 1.22). However, acute myeloid leukemia and melanoma were observed at higher than expected rates with O/E ratios of 5.19 (99% CI, 1.67 to 12.04; P = .0004), and 3.58 (99% CI, 1.82 to 6.29; P < .0001), respectively. Obesity, older age, and male gender were associated with increased risks of new cancers in multivariate analyses. This large data set provides a baseline for comparison and defines the histologic type specific risk for new cancers in patients with MM receiving postautotransplantation therapies, such as maintenance.
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40.
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41.
  • Myers, Regina M., et al. (författare)
  • Long-Term Outcomes Among 2-Year Survivors of Autologous Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Hodgkin and Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Cancer. - : WILEY. - 0008-543X .- 1097-0142. ; 124:4, s. 816-825
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Autologous hematopoietic cell transplantation (auto-HCT) is a standard therapy for relapsed classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL); however, long-term outcomes are not well described.METHODS: This study analyzed survival, nonrelapse mortality, late effects, and subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMNs) in 1617 patients who survived progression-free for >= 2 years after auto-HCT for cHL or DLBCL between 1990 and 2008. The median age at auto-HCT was 40 years; the median follow-up was 10.6 years.RESULTS: The 5-year overall survival rate was 90% (95% confidence interval [CI], 87%-92%) for patients with cHL and 89% (95% CI, 87%-91%) for patients with DLBCL. The risk of late mortality in comparison with the general population was 9.6-fold higher for patients with cHL (standardized mortality ratio [SMR], 9.6) and 3.4-fold higher for patients with DLBCL (SMR, 3.4). Relapse accounted for 44% of late deaths. At least 1 late effect was reported for 9% of the patients. A total of 105 SMNs were confirmed: 44 in the cHL group and 61 in the DLBCL group. According to a multivariate analysis, older age, male sex, a Karnofsky score < 90, total body irradiation (TBI) exposure, and a higher number of lines of chemotherapy before auto-HCT were risk factors for overall mortality in cHL. Risk factors in DLBCL were older age and TBI exposure. A subanalysis of 798 adolescent and young adult patients mirrored the outcomes of the overall study population.CONCLUSIONS: Despite generally favorable outcomes, 2-year survivors of auto-HCT for cHL or DLBCL have an excess late-mortality risk in comparison with the general population and experience an assortment of late complications.
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42.
  • Ng-Kamstra, J. S., et al. (författare)
  • Perioperative mortality rates in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Bmj Global Health. - : BMJ. - 2059-7908. ; 3:3
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Introduction The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery proposed the perioperative mortality rate (POMR) as one of the six key indicators of the strength of a country's surgical system. Despite its widespread use in high-income settings, few studies have described procedure-specific POMR across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We aimed to estimate POMR across a wide range of surgical procedures in LMICs. We also describe how POMR is defined and reported in the LMIC literature to provide recommendations for future monitoring in resource-constrained settings. Methods We did a systematic review of studies from LMICs published from 2009 to 2014 reporting POMR for any surgical procedure. We extracted select variables in duplicate from each included study and pooled estimates of POMR by type of procedure using random-effects meta-analysis of proportions and the Freeman-Tukey double arcsine transformation to stabilise variances. Results We included 985 studies conducted across 83 LMICs, covering 191 types of surgical procedures performed on 1 020 869 patients. Pooled POMR ranged from less than 0.1% for appendectomy, cholecystectomy and caesarean delivery to 20%-27% for typhoid intestinal perforation, intracranial haemorrhage and operative head injury. We found no consistent associations between procedure-specific POMR and Human Development Index (HDI) or income-group apart from emergency peripartum hysterectomy POMR, which appeared higher in low-income countries. Inpatient mortality was the most commonly used definition, though only 46.2% of studies explicitly defined the time frame during which deaths accrued. Conclusions Efforts to improve access to surgical care in LMICs should be accompanied by investment in improving the quality and safety of care. To improve the usefulness of POMR as a safety benchmark, standard reporting items should be included with any POMR estimate. Choosing a basket of procedures for which POMR is tracked may offer institutions and countries the standardisation required to meaningfully compare surgical outcomes across contexts and improve population health outcomes.
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43.
  • Pan, Xun, et al. (författare)
  • Environmentally friendly preparation of nanoparticles for organic photovoltaics
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Organic Electronics: physics, materials, applications. - : Elsevier BV. - 1566-1199. ; 59, s. 432-440
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aqueous nanoparticle dispersions were prepared from a conjugated polymer poly[thiophene-2,5-diyl-alt-5,10-bis((2-hexyldecyl)oxy)dithieno[3,2-c:3′,2′-h][1,5]naphthyridine-2,7-diyl] (PTNT) and fullerene blend utilizing chloroform as well as a non-chlorinated and environmentally benign solvent, o-xylene, as the miniemulsion dispersed phase solvent. The nanoparticles (NPs) in the solid-state film were found to coalesce and offered a smooth surface topography upon thermal annealing. Organic photovoltaics (OPVs) with photoactive layer processed from the nanoparticle dispersions prepared using chloroform as the miniemulsion dispersed phase solvent were found to have a power conversion efficiency (PCE) of 1.04%, which increased to 1.65% for devices utilizing NPs prepared from o-xylene. Physical, thermal and optical properties of NPs prepared using both chloroform and o-xylene were systematically studied using dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA) and photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy and correlated to their photovoltaic properties. The PL results indicate different morphology of NPs in the solid state were achieved by varying miniemulsion dispersed phase solvent.
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44.
  • Saad, Ayman, et al. (författare)
  • Impact of T Cell Dose on Outcome of T Cell-Replete HLA-Matched Allogeneic Peripheral Blood Stem Cell Transplantation
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Biology of blood and marrow transplantation. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1083-8791 .- 1523-6536. ; 25:9, s. 1875-1883
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Data on whether the T cell dose of allogeneic peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) products influences transplantation outcomes are conflicting. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database, we identified 2736 adult patients who underwent first allogeneic PBSC transplantation for acute leukemia or myelodysplastic syndrome between 2008 and 2014 using an HLA-matched sibling donor (MSD) or an 8/8-matched unrelated donor (MUD). We excluded ex vivo and in vivo T cell-depleted transplantations. Correlative analysis was performed between CD3(+) T cell dose and the risk of graft-versus-host-disease (GVHD), relapse, nonrelapse mortality (NRM), disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival (OS). Using maximum likelihood estimation, we identified CD3(+) T cell dose cutoff that separated the risk of acute GVHD (aGVHD) grade II-IV in both the MSD and MUD groups. A CD3(+) T cell dose cutoff of 14 x 10(7) cells/kg identified MSD/low CD3(+) (n = 223) and MSD/high CD3(+) (n = 1214), and a dose of 15 x 107 cells/kg identified MUD/low (n = 197) and MUD/high CD3(+) (n = 1102). On univariate analysis, the MSD/high CD3(+) group had a higher cumulative incidence of day +100 aGVHD grade II-IV compared with the MSD/low CD3(+) group (33% versus 25%; P=.009). There were no differences between the 2 groups in engraftment rate, risk of aGVHD grade III-IV or chronic GVHD (cGVHD), NRM, relapse, DFS, or OS. The MUD/high CD3(+) group had a higher cumulative incidence of day +100 aGVHD grade II-IV compared with the MUD/low CD3(+) group (49% versus 41%; P=.04). There were no differences between the 2 groups in engraftment rate, risk of severe aGVHD or cGVHD, NRM, relapse, DFS, or OS. Multivariate analysis of the MSD and MUD groups failed to show an association between CD3(+) T cell dose and the risk of either aGVHD grade II-IV (P=.10 and .07, respectively) or cGVHD (P = .80 and .30, respectively). Subanalysis of CD4(+) T cells, CD8(+) T cells, and CD4+/CD8+ ratio failed to identify cutoff values predictive of transplantation outcomes; however, using the log-rank test, the sample size was suboptimal for identifying a difference at this cutoff cell dose. In this registry study, the CD3(+) T cell dose of PBSC products did not influence the risk of aGVHD or cGVHD or other transplantation outcomes when using an MSD or an 8/8-matched MUD. Subset analyses of CD4(+) and CD8(+) T cell doses were not possible given our small sample size. (C) 2019 American Society for Transplantation and Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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45.
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46.
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47.
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48.
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49.
  • Coton, Sonia, et al. (författare)
  • Severity of Airflow Obstruction in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) : Proposal for a New Classification
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: COPD. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1541-2555 .- 1541-2563. ; 14:5, s. 469-475
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Current classifications of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) severity are complex and do not grade levels of obstruction. Obstruction is a simpler construct and independent of ethnicity. We constructed an index of obstruction severity based on the FEV1/FVC ratio, with cut-points dividing the Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study population into four similarly sized strata to those created by the GOLD criteria that uses FEV1. Wemeasured the agreement between classifications and the validity of the FEV1-based classification in identifying the level of obstruction as defined by the new groupings. We compared the strengths of association of each classification with quality of life (QoL), MRC dyspnoea score and the self-reported exacerbation rate. Agreement between classifications was only fair. FEV1-based criteria for moderate COPD identified only 79% of those with moderate obstruction and misclassified half of the participants with mild obstruction as having more severe COPD. Both scales were equally strongly associated with QoL, exertional dyspnoea and respiratory exacerbations. Severity assessed using the FEV1/FVC ratio is only in moderate agreement with the severity assessed using FEV1 but is equally strongly associated with other outcomes. Severity assessed using the FEV1/FVC ratio is likely to be independent of ethnicity.
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50.
  • Goyal, S. D., et al. (författare)
  • Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplant for AML : no impact of pre-transplant extramedullary disease on outcome
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Bone Marrow Transplantation. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0268-3369 .- 1476-5365. ; 50:8, s. 1057-1062
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The impact of extramedullary disease (EMD) in AML on the outcomes of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (alloHCT) is unknown. Using data from the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research, we compared the outcomes of patients who had EMD of AML at any time before transplant, with a cohort of AML patients without EMD. We reviewed data from 9797 AML patients including 814 with EMD from 310 reporting centers and 44 different countries, who underwent alloHCT between and 1995 and 2010. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS) after alloHCT. Secondary outcomes included leukemia-free survival (LFS), relapse rate and treatment-related mortality (TRM). In a multivariate analysis, the presence of EMD did not affect either OS (hazard ratio 1.00, 95% confidence interval (Cl) 0.91-1.09), LFS (0.98, 0.89-1.09), TRM (relative risk 0.92, 95% CI 0.80-1.16, P=0.23) or relapse (relative risk= 1.03, 95% CI, 0.92-1.16; P=0.62). Furthermore, the outcome of patients with EMD was not influenced by the location, timing of EMD, or intensity of conditioning regimen. The presence of EMD in AML does not affect transplant outcomes and should not be viewed as an independent adverse prognostic feature.
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