| 1. |
- Campbell, PJ, et al.
(författare)
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Pan-cancer analysis of whole genomes
- 2020
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 578:7793, s. 82-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cancer is driven by genetic change, and the advent of massively parallel sequencing has enabled systematic documentation of this variation at the whole-genome scale1–3. Here we report the integrative analysis of 2,658 whole-cancer genomes and their matching normal tissues across 38 tumour types from the Pan-Cancer Analysis of Whole Genomes (PCAWG) Consortium of the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) and The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We describe the generation of the PCAWG resource, facilitated by international data sharing using compute clouds. On average, cancer genomes contained 4–5 driver mutations when combining coding and non-coding genomic elements; however, in around 5% of cases no drivers were identified, suggesting that cancer driver discovery is not yet complete. Chromothripsis, in which many clustered structural variants arise in a single catastrophic event, is frequently an early event in tumour evolution; in acral melanoma, for example, these events precede most somatic point mutations and affect several cancer-associated genes simultaneously. Cancers with abnormal telomere maintenance often originate from tissues with low replicative activity and show several mechanisms of preventing telomere attrition to critical levels. Common and rare germline variants affect patterns of somatic mutation, including point mutations, structural variants and somatic retrotransposition. A collection of papers from the PCAWG Consortium describes non-coding mutations that drive cancer beyond those in the TERT promoter4; identifies new signatures of mutational processes that cause base substitutions, small insertions and deletions and structural variation5,6; analyses timings and patterns of tumour evolution7; describes the diverse transcriptional consequences of somatic mutation on splicing, expression levels, fusion genes and promoter activity8,9; and evaluates a range of more-specialized features of cancer genomes8,10–18.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2016
- 2017
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 98:8, s. S1-S280
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2016, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth's atmosphere-carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide-continued to increase and reach new record highs. The 3.5 +/- 0.1 ppm rise in global annual mean carbon dioxide from 2015 to 2016 was the largest annual increase observed in the 58-year measurement record. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth's surface surpassed 400 ppm (402.9 +/- 0.1 ppm) for the first time in the modern atmospheric measurement record and in ice core records dating back as far as 800000 years. One of the strongest El Nino events since at least 1950 dissipated in spring, and a weak La Nina evolved later in the year. Owing at least in part to the combination of El Nino conditions early in the year and a long-term upward trend, Earth's surface observed record warmth for a third consecutive year, albeit by a much slimmer margin than by which that record was set in 2015. Above Earth's surface, the annual lower troposphere temperature was record high according to all datasets analyzed, while the lower stratospheric temperature was record low according to most of the in situ and satellite datasets. Several countries, including Mexico and India, reported record high annual temperatures while many others observed near-record highs. A week-long heat wave at the end of April over the northern and eastern Indian peninsula, with temperatures surpassing 44 degrees C, contributed to a water crisis for 330 million people and to 300 fatalities. In the Arctic the 2016 land surface temperature was 2.0 degrees C above the 1981-2010 average, breaking the previous record of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8 degrees C, representing a 3.5 degrees C increase since the record began in 1900. The increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 24 March, the sea ice extent at the end of the growth season saw its lowest maximum in the 37-year satellite record, tying with 2015 at 7.2% below the 1981-2010 average. The September 2016 Arctic sea ice minimum extent tied with 2007 for the second lowest value on record, 33% lower than the 1981-2010 average. Arctic sea ice cover remains relatively young and thin, making it vulnerable to continued extensive melt. The mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which has the capacity to contribute similar to 7 m to sea level rise, reached a record low value. The onset of its surface melt was the second earliest, after 2012, in the 37-year satellite record. Sea surface temperature was record high at the global scale, surpassing the previous record of 2015 by about 0.01 degrees C. The global sea surface temperature trend for the 21st century-to-date of +0.162 degrees C decade(-1) is much higher than the longer term 1950-2016 trend of +0.100 degrees C decade(-1). Global annual mean sea level also reached a new record high, marking the sixth consecutive year of increase. Global annual ocean heat content saw a slight drop compared to the record high in 2015. Alpine glacier retreat continued around the globe, and preliminary data indicate that 2016 is the 37th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover for each month from February to June was among its four least extensive in the 47-year satellite record. Continuing a pattern below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska and at the Canadian observatory on northernmost Ellesmere Island. In the Antarctic, record low monthly surface pressures were broken at many stations, with the southern annular mode setting record high index values in March and June. Monthly high surface pressure records for August and November were set at several stations. During this period, record low daily and monthly sea ice extents were observed, with the November mean sea ice extent more than 5 standard deviations below the 1981-2010 average. These record low sea ice values contrast sharply with the record high values observed during 2012-14. Over the region, springtime Antarctic stratospheric ozone depletion was less severe relative to the 1991-2006 average, but ozone levels were still low compared to pre-1990 levels. Closer to the equator, 93 named tropical storms were observed during 2016, above the 1981-2010 average of 82, but fewer than the 101 storms recorded in 2015. Three basins-the North Atlantic, and eastern and western North Pacific-experienced above-normal activity in 2016. The Australian basin recorded its least active season since the beginning of the satellite era in 1970. Overall, four tropical cyclones reached the Saffir-Simpson category 5 intensity level. The strong El Nino at the beginning of the year that transitioned to a weak La Nina contributed to enhanced precipitation variability around the world. Wet conditions were observed throughout the year across southern South America, causing repeated heavy flooding in Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. Wetter-than-usual conditions were also observed for eastern Europe and central Asia, alleviating the drought conditions of 2014 and 2015 in southern Russia. In the United States, California had its first wetter-than-average year since 2012, after being plagued by drought for several years. Even so, the area covered by drought in 2016 at the global scale was among the largest in the post-1950 record. For each month, at least 12% of land surfaces experienced severe drought conditions or worse, the longest such stretch in the record. In northeastern Brazil, drought conditions were observed for the fifth consecutive year, making this the longest drought on record in the region. Dry conditions were also observed in western Bolivia and Peru; it was Bolivia's worst drought in the past 25 years. In May, with abnormally warm and dry conditions already prevailing over western Canada for about a year, the human-induced Fort McMurray wildfire burned nearly 590000 hectares and became the costliest disaster in Canadian history, with $3 billion (U.S. dollars) in insured losses.
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Kuliński, Karol, et al.
(författare)
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Biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea
- 2022
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 13, s. 633-685
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Location, specific topography, and hydrographic setting together with climate change and strong anthropogenic pressure are the main factors shaping the biogeochemical functioning and thus also the ecological status of the Baltic Sea. The recent decades have brought significant changes in the Baltic Sea. First, the rising nutrient loads from land in the second half of the 20th century led to eutrophication and spreading of hypoxic and anoxic areas, for which permanent stratification of the water column and limited ventilation of deep-water layers made favourable conditions. Since the 1980s the nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea have been continuously decreasing. This, however, has so far not resulted in significant improvements in oxygen availability in the deep regions, which has revealed a slow response time of the system to the reduction of the land-derived nutrient loads. Responsible for that is the low burial efficiency of phosphorus at anoxic conditions and its remobilization from sediments when conditions change from oxic to anoxic. This results in a stoichiometric excess of phosphorus available for organic-matter production, which promotes the growth of N2-fixing cyanobacteria and in turn supports eutrophication. This assessment reviews the available and published knowledge on the biogeochemical functioning of the Baltic Sea. In its content, the paper covers the aspects related to changes in carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus (C, N, and P) external loads, their transformations in the coastal zone, changes in organic-matter production (eutrophication) and remineralization (oxygen availability), and the role of sediments in burial and turnover of C, N, and P. In addition to that, this paper focuses also on changes in the marine CO2 system, the structure and functioning of the microbial community, and the role of contaminants for biogeochemical processes. This comprehensive assessment allowed also for identifying knowledge gaps and future research needs in the field of marine biogeochemistry in the Baltic Sea. Copyright:
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| 8. |
- Reckermann, Markus, et al.
(författare)
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BALTEX - an interdisciplinary research network for the Baltic Sea region
- 2011
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 6:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BALTEX is an environmental research network dealing with the Earth system of the entire Baltic Sea drainage basin. Important elements include the water and energy cycle, climate variability and change, water management and extreme events, and related impacts on biogeochemical cycles. BALTEX was founded in 1993 as a GEWEX continental-scale experiment and is currently in its second 10 yr phase. Phase I (1993–2002) was primarily dedicated to hydrological, meteorological and oceanographic processes in the Baltic Sea drainage basin, hence mostly dealt with the physical aspects of the system. Scientific focus was on the hydrological cycle and the exchange of energy between the atmosphere, the Baltic Sea and the surface of its catchment. The BALTEX study area was hydrologically defined as the Baltic Sea drainage basin. The second 10 yr phase of BALTEX (Phase II: 2003–12) has strengthened regional climate research, water management issues, biogeochemical cycles and overarching efforts to reach out to stakeholders and decision makers, as well as to foster communication and education. Achievements of BALTEX Phase II have been the establishment of an assessment report of regional climate change and its impacts on the Baltic Sea basin (from hydrological to biological and socio-economic), the further development of regional physical climate models and the integration of biogeochemical and ecosystem models. BALTEX features a strong infrastructure, with an international secretariat and a publication series, and organizes various workshops and conferences. This article gives an overview of the BALTEX programme, with an emphasis on Phase II, with some examples from BALTEX-related research.
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| 9. |
- Seehausen, Ole, et al.
(författare)
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Genomics and the origin of species
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nature reviews genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1471-0056 .- 1471-0064. ; 15:3, s. 176-192
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Speciation is a fundamental evolutionary process, the knowledge of which is crucial for understanding the origins of biodiversity. Genomic approaches are an increasingly important aspect of this research field. We review current understanding of genome-wide effects of accumulating reproductive isolation and of genomic properties that influence the process of speciation. Building on this work, we identify emergent trends and gaps in our understanding, propose new approaches to more fully integrate genomics into speciation research, translate speciation theory into hypotheses that are testable using genomic tools and provide an integrative definition of the field of speciation genomics.
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| 10. |
- Almroth Rosell, Elin, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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A new approach to model oxygen dependent benthic phosphate fluxes in the Baltic Sea
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0924-7963 .- 1879-1573. ; 144, s. 127-141
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The new approach to model the oxygen dependent phosphate release by implementing formulations of the oxygen penetration depths (OPD) and mineral bound inorganic phosphorus pools to the Swedish Coastal and Ocean Biogeochemical model (SCOBI) is described. The phosphorus dynamics and the oxygen concentrations in the Baltic proper sediment are studied during the period 1980-2008 using SCOBI coupled to the 3D-Rossby Centre Ocean model. Model data are compared to observations from monitoring stations and experiments. The impact from oxygen consumption on the determination of the OPD is found to be largest in the coastal zones where also the largest OPD are found. In the deep water the low oxygen concentrations mainly determine the OPD. Highest modelled release rate of phosphate from the sediment is about 59 x 10(3) t P year(-1) and is found on anoxic sediment at depths between 60-150 m, corresponding to 17% of the Baltic proper total area. The deposition of organic and inorganic phosphorus on sediments with oxic bottom water is larger than the release of phosphorus, about 43 x 10(3) t P year(-1). For anoxic bottoms the release of total phosphorus during the investigated period is larger than the deposition, about 19 x 10(3) t P year(-1). In total the net Baltic proper sediment sink is about 23.7 x 10(3) t P year(-1). The estimated phosphorus sink efficiency of the entire Baltic Sea is on average about 83% during the period.
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| 11. |
- Almroth Rosell, Elin, 1977, et al.
(författare)
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Transport of fresh and resuspended particulate organic material in the Baltic Sea — a model study
- 2011
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Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0924-7963. ; 87:1, s. 1-12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A fully coupled high-resolution 3-dimensional biogeochemical–physical ocean model including an empirical wave model was used to investigate the long-term average (1970–2007) distributions and transports of resuspended matter and other types of suspended organic matter in the Baltic Sea. Modelled bottom types were compared to observations and the results showed that the model successfully managed to capture the horizontal, as well as the vertical, distribution of the different bottom types: accumulation, transport and erosion bottoms. The model also captured well the nutrient element contents in the sediments. On average the largest contribution of resuspended organic carbon to the transport of total organic carbon is found at erosion and transport bottoms. Although the relative transport of resuspended organic carbon at deeper accumulation bottoms in general is low (< 10% of total), the central parts of the sub-basins act on average as sinks that import organic matter while the more shallow areas and the coastal regions acts as sources of organic carbon in the water column. This indicates that the particulate organic matter produced in erosion and transport areas might be kept in suspension long enough to be transported and settle in less energetic areas, i.e. on accumulation bottoms.
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| 12. |
- Bauer, Barbara, et al.
(författare)
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Food web and fisheries in the future Baltic Sea
- 2019
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 48:11, s. 1337-1349
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We developed numerical simulations of potential future ecological states of the Baltic Sea ecosystem at the end of century under five scenarios. We used a spatial food web (Ecospace) model, forced by a physical-biogeochemical model. The scenarios are built on consistent storylines that describe plausible developments of climatic and socioeconomic factors in the Baltic Sea region. Modelled species diversity and fish catches are driven by climate- and nutrient load-related changes in habitat quality and by fisheries management strategies. Our results suggest that a scenario including low greenhouse gas concentrations and nutrient pollution and ecologically focused fisheries management results in high biodiversity and catch value. On the other hand, scenarios envisioning increasing societal inequality or economic growth based on fossil fuels, high greenhouse gas emissions and high nutrient loads result in decreased habitat quality and diminished biodiversity. Under the latter scenarios catches are high but they predominantly consist of lower-valued fish.
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| 13. |
- Bauer, Barbara, et al.
(författare)
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Reducing eutrophication increases spatial extent of communities supporting commercial fisheries : a model case study
- 2018
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Ingår i: ICES Journal of Marine Science. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1054-3139 .- 1095-9289. ; 75:4, s. 1306-1317
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study we investigate if eutrophication management has the potential to substantially affect which areas are going to be most suitable for commercial fishing in the future. We use a spatial ecosystem model, forced by a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, to simulate the spatial distribution of functional groups within a marine ecosystem, which depends on their respective tolerances to abiotic factors, trophic interactions, and fishing. We simulate the future long-term spatial developments of the community composition and their potential implications for fisheries under three different nutrient management scenarios and changing climate. The three nutrient management scenarios result in contrasting developments of bottom oxygen concentrations and phytoplankton abundance, with substantial effects on fish production. Nutrient load reduction increases the spatial extent of the areas suitable for the commercially most valuable demersal fish predator and all types of fisheries. This suggests that strategic planning of fishery management strategies could benefit from considering future changes in species distributions due to changes in eutrophication. We show that combining approaches from climate research, physical oceanography, biogeochemistry, biogeography, and trophic ecology with economical information provides a strong foundation to produce scientific knowledge that can support a multisectoral management of ecosystems.
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| 14. |
- Conley, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Hypoxia-Related Processes in the Baltic Sea
- 2009
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Ingår i: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 43:10, s. 3412-3420
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hypoxia, a growing worldwide problem, has been intermittently present in the modern Baltic Sea since its formation ca. 8000 cal. yr BP. However, both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia have increased with anthropogenic eutrophication due to nutrient inputs. Physical processes, which control stratification and the renewal of oxygen in bottom waters, are important constraints on the formation and maintenance of hypoxia. Climate controlled inflows of saline water from the North Sea through the Danish Straits is a critical controlling factor governing the spatial extent and duration of hypoxia. Hypoxia regulates the biogeochemical cycles of both phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in the water column and sediments. Significant amounts of P are currently released from sediments, an order of magnitude larger than anthropogenic inputs. The Baltic Sea is unique for coastal marine ecosystems experiencing N losses in hypoxic waters below the halocline. Although benthic communities in the Baltic Sea are naturally constrained by salinity gradients, hypoxia has resulted in habitat loss over vast areas and the elimination of benthic fauna, and has severely disrupted benthic food webs. Nutrient load reductions are needed to reduce the extent, severity, and effects of hypoxia.
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| 15. |
- Deng, Junjie, et al.
(författare)
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A method for assessing the coastline recession due to the sea level rise by assuming stationary wind-wave climate
- 2015
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Ingår i: Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies. - : Uniwersytet Gdanski. - 1730-413X .- 1897-3191. ; 44:3, s. 362-380
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The method introduced in this study for future projection of coastline changes hits the vital need of communicating the potential climate change impact on the coast in the 21th century. A quantitative method called the Dynamic Equilibrium Shore Model (DESM) has been developed to hindcast historical sediment mass budgets and to reconstruct a paleo Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The forward mode of the DESM model relies on paleo-scenarios reconstructed by the DESM model assuming stationary wind-wave climate. A linear relationship between the sea level, coastline changes and sediment budget is formulated and proven by the least square regression method. In addition to its forward prediction of coastline changes, this linear relationship can also estimate the sediment budget by using the information on the coastline and relative sea level changes. Wind climate change is examined based on regional climate model data. Our projections for the end of the 21st century suggest that the wind and wave climates in the southern Baltic Sea may not change compared to present conditions and that the investigated coastline along the Pomeranian Bay may retreat from 10 to 100 m depending on the location and on the sea level rise which was assumed to be in the range of 0.12 to 0.24 m.
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
- Eilola, Kari, et al.
(författare)
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Impact of saltwater inflows on phosphorus cycling and eutrophication in the Baltic Sea : a 3D model study
- 2014
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Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6495 .- 1600-0870. ; 66, s. 23985-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impact of dense saltwater inflows on the phosphorus dynamics in the Baltic Sea is studied from tracer experiments with a three-dimensional physical model. Model simulations showed that the coasts of the North West Gotland Basin and the Gulf of Finland, the Estonian coast in the East Gotland Basin are regions where tracers from below the halocline are primarily lifted up above the halocline. After 1 yr tracers are accumulated at the surface along the Swedish east coast and at the western and southern sides of Gotland. Elevated concentrations are also found east and southeast of Gotland, in the northern Bornholm Basin and in the central parts of the East Gotland Basin. The annual supplies of phosphorus from the deeper waters to the productive surface layers are estimated to be of the same order of magnitude as the waterborne inputs of phosphorus to the entire Baltic Sea. The model results suggest that regionally the impact of these nutrients may be quite large, and the largest regional increases in surface concentrations are found after large inflows. However, the overall direct impact of major Baltic inflows on the annual uplift of nutrients from below the halocline to the surface waters is small because vertical transports are comparably large also during periods without major inflows. Our model results suggest that phosphorus released from the sediments between 60 and 100 m depth in the East Gotland Basin contributes to the eutrophication, especially in the coastal regions of the eastern Baltic Proper.
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| 18. |
- Fransner, Filippa, et al.
(författare)
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Tracing terrestrial DOC in the Baltic Sea - a 3-D model study
- 2016
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Ingår i: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 30:2, s. 134-148
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The fate of terrestrial organic matter brought to the coastal seas by rivers, and its role in the global carbon cycle, are still not very well known. Here the degradation rate of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (DOCter) is studied in the Baltic Sea, a subarctic semi-enclosed sea, by releasing it as a tracer in a 3-D circulation model and applying linear decay constants. A good agreement with available observational data is obtained by parameterizing the degradation in two rather different ways; one by applying a decay time on the order of 10 years to the whole pool of DOCter, and one by dividing the DOCter into one refractory pool and one pool subject to a decay time on the order of 1 year. The choice of parameterization has a significant effect on where in the Baltic Sea the removal takes place, which can be of importance when modeling the full carbon cycle and the CO2 exchange with the atmosphere. In both cases the biogeochemical decay operates on time scales less than the water residence time. Therefore only a minor fraction of the DOCter reaches the North Sea, whereas approximately 80% is removed by internal sinks within the Baltic Sea. This further implies that DOCter mineralization is an important link in land-sea-atmosphere cycling of carbon in coastal- and shelf seas that are heavily influenced by riverine DOC.
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| 19. |
- Gröger, Matthias, et al.
(författare)
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Coupled regional Earth system modeling in the Baltic Sea region
- 2021
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Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 12:3, s. 939-973
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nonlinear responses to externally forced climate change are known to dampen or amplify the local climate impact due to complex cross-compartmental feedback loops in the Earth system. These feedbacks are less well represented in the traditional stand-alone atmosphere and ocean models on which many of today's regional climate assessments rely (e.g., EURO-CORDEX, NOSCCA and BACC II). This has promoted the development of regional climate models for the Baltic Sea region by coupling different compartments of the Earth system into more comprehensive models. Coupled models more realistically represent feedback loops than the information imposed on the region by prescribed boundary conditions and, thus, permit more degrees of freedom. In the past, several coupled model systems have been developed for Europe and the Baltic Sea region. This article reviews recent progress on model systems that allow two-way communication between atmosphere and ocean models; models for the land surface, including the terrestrial biosphere; and wave models at the air-sea interface and hydrology models for water cycle closure. However, several processes that have mostly been realized by one-way coupling to date, such as marine biogeochemistry, nutrient cycling and atmospheric chemistry (e.g., aerosols), are not considered here. In contrast to uncoupled stand-alone models, coupled Earth system models can modify mean near-surface air temperatures locally by up to several degrees compared with their stand-alone atmospheric counterparts using prescribed surface boundary conditions. The representation of small-scale oceanic processes, such as vertical mixing and sea-ice dynamics, appears essential to accurately resolve the air-sea heat exchange over the Baltic Sea, and these parameters can only be provided by online coupled high-resolution ocean models. In addition, the coupling of wave models at the ocean-atmosphere interface allows for a more explicit formulation of small-scale to microphysical processes with local feedbacks to water temperature and large-scale processes such as oceanic upwelling. Over land, important climate feedbacks arise from dynamical terrestrial vegetation changes as well as the implementation of land-use scenarios and afforestation/deforestation that further alter surface albedo, roughness length and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, a good representation of surface temperatures and roughness length over open sea and land areas is critical for the representation of climatic extremes such as heavy precipitation, storms, or tropical nights (defined as nights where the daily minimum temperature does not fall below 20gC), and these parameters appear to be sensitive to coupling. For the present-day climate, many coupled atmosphere-ocean and atmosphere-land surface models have demonstrated the added value of single climate variables, in particular when low-quality boundary data were used in the respective stand-alone model. This makes coupled models a prospective tool for downscaling climate change scenarios from global climate models because these models often have large biases on the regional scale. However, the coupling of hydrology models to close the water cycle remains problematic, as the accuracy of precipitation provided by atmosphere models is, in most cases, insufficient to realistically simulate the runoff to the Baltic Sea without bias adjustments. Many regional stand-alone ocean and atmosphere models are tuned to suitably represent present-day climatologies rather than to accurately simulate climate change. Therefore, more research is required into how the regional climate sensitivity (e.g., the models' response to a given change in global mean temperature) is affected by coupling and how the spread is altered in multi-model and multi-scenario ensembles of coupled models compared with uncoupled ones.
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| 20. |
- Gustafsson, Bo G., et al.
(författare)
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Load scenarios for Ecosupport : Technical Report No. 4
- 2011
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In the project ECOSUPPORT, three coupled physical-biogeochemical models (ER-GOM, RCO-SCOBI and BALTSEM) are used to produce an ensemble of combine climate change - nutrient load scenarios. The atmospheric driving forces for the models are produced by two global climate models, ECHAM5 and HadCM3; and these results are dynamically downscaled using the RCAO model at the SMHI, see Meier et al. (2011) and references therein. Since, results from dynamic hydrological models were not available, river runoff were constructed from the net P-E balance of the RCAO model results. Nutrient load scenarios wasto be explicitly given, but effects from climate change induced river runoff variations were estimated. In total, four different climate change scenarios produced and four different assumptions on direct anthropogenic changes in nutrient loads, thus in total 16 combinations. The nutrient load scenarios comprised of; one reference with approximately unchanged loads, one pessimistic business as usual and two more optimistic, current legislation and Baltic Sea Action Plan. All the latter based on previous work. This report describes the construction of these nutrient load scenarios.
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| 21. |
- Gustafsson, Bo G., et al.
(författare)
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Reconstructing the Development of Baltic Sea Eutrophication 1850-2006
- 2012
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:6, s. 534-548
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A comprehensive reconstruction of the Baltic Sea state from 1850 to 2006 is presented: driving forces are reconstructed and the evolution of the hydrography and biogeochemical cycles is simulated using the model BALTSEM. Driven by high resolution atmospheric forcing fields (HiResAFF), BALTSEM reproduces dynamics of salinity, temperature, and maximum ice extent. Nutrient loads have been increasing with a noteworthy acceleration from the 1950s until peak values around 1980 followed by a decrease continuing up to present. BALTSEM shows a delayed response to the massive load increase with most eutrophic conditions occurring only at the end of the simulation. This is accompanied by an intensification of the pelagic cycling driven by a shift from spring to summer primary production. The simulation indicates that no improvement in water quality of the Baltic Sea compared to its present state can be expected from the decrease in nutrient loads in recent decades.
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| 22. |
- Holopainen, Reetta, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of changing climate on the non-indigenous invertebrates in the northern Baltic Sea by end of the twenty-first century
- 2016
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Ingår i: Biological Invasions. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1387-3547 .- 1573-1464. ; 18:10, s. 3015-3032
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Biological invasions coupled with climate change drive changes in marine biodiversity. Warming climate and changes in hydrology may either enable or hinder the spread of non-indigenous species (NIS) and little is known about how climate change modifies the richness and impacts of NIS in specific sea areas. We calculated from climate change simulations (RCO-SCOBI model) the changes in summer time conditions which northern Baltic Sea may to go through by the end of the twenty-first century, e.g., 2-5 A degrees C sea surface temperature rise and even up to 1.75 unit decrease in salinity. We reviewed the temperature and salinity tolerances (i.e., physiological tolerances and occurrence ranges in the field) of pelagic and benthic NIS established in-or with dispersal potential to-the northern Baltic Sea, and assessed how climate change will likely affect them. Our findings suggest a future decrease in barnacle larvae and an increase in Ponto-Caspian cladocerans in the pelagic community. In benthos, polychaetes, gastropods and decapods may become less abundant. By contrast, dreissenid bivalves, amphipods and mysids are expected to widen their distribution and increase in abundance in the coastal areas of the northern Baltic Sea. Potential salinity decrease acts as a major driver for NIS biogeography in the northern Baltic Sea, but temperature increase and extended summer season allow higher reproduction success in bivalves, zooplankton, amphipods and mysids. Successful NIS, i.e., coastal crustacean and bivalve species, pose a risk to native biota, as many of them have already demonstrated harmful effects in the Baltic Sea.
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| 23. |
- Kotilainen, Aarno T., et al.
(författare)
-
Echoes from the Past : A Healthy Baltic Sea Requires More Effort
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 43:1, s. 60-68
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Integrated sediment multiproxy studies and modeling were used to reconstruct past changes in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Results of natural changes over the past 6000 years in the Baltic Sea ecosystem suggest that forecasted climate warming might enhance environmental problems of the Baltic Sea. Integrated modeling and sediment proxy studies reveal increased sea surface temperatures and expanded seafloor anoxia (in deep basins) during earlier natural warm climate phases, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Under future IPCC scenarios of global warming, there is likely no improvement of bottom water conditions in the Baltic Sea. Thus, the measures already designed to produce a healthier Baltic Sea are insufficient in the long term. The interactions between climate change and anthropogenic impacts on the Baltic Sea should be considered in management, implementation of policy strategies in the Baltic Sea environmental issues, and adaptation to future climate change.
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| 24. |
- Liu, Ye, et al.
(författare)
-
Improving the multiannual, high-resolution modelling of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea by using data assimilation
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6495 .- 1600-0870. ; 66, s. 24908-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The impact of assimilating temperature, salinity, oxygen, phosphate and nitrate observations on marine ecosystem modelling is assessed. For this purpose, two 10-yr (1970-1979) reanalyses of the Baltic Sea are carried out using the ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) method and a coupled physical-biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea. To evaluate the reanalyses, climatological data and available biogeochemical and physical in situ observations at monitoring stations are compared with results from simulations with and without data assimilation. In the first reanalysis, only observed temperature and salinity profiles are assimilated, whereas biogeochemical observations are unused. Although simulated temperature and salinity improve considerably as expected, the quality of simulated biogeochemical variables does not improve and deep water nitrate concentrations even worsen. This unexpected behaviour is explained by a lowering of the halocline in the Baltic proper due to the assimilation causing increased oxygen concentrations in the deep water and consequently altered nutrient fluxes. In the second reanalysis, both physical and biogeochemical observations are assimilated and good quality in all variables is found. Hence, we conclude that if a data assimilation method like the EnOI is applied, all available observations should be used to perform reanalyses of high quality for the Baltic Sea biogeochemical state estimates.
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| 25. |
- Liu, Ye, et al.
(författare)
-
Reanalyzing temperature and salinity on decadal time scales using the ensemble optimal interpolation data assimilation method and a 3D ocean circulation model of the Baltic Sea
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Journal Of Geophysical Research: Oceans. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-9275. ; 118:10, s. 5536-5554
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A 30-year (1970-1999) reanalysis of temperature and salinity is conducted by assimilating temperature and salinity profiles into an ocean model of the Baltic Sea with ensemble optimal interpolation approach. Some configurations of the reanalysis are presented. For example, the samples are chosen from the same season as the analysis time to address the strong seasonal variability. The impact of different observation time windows on the analysis results is also discussed. A locally determined alpha is adopted for the long-time-scale simulation. To assess the accuracy of the reanalysis, a set of comparisons between the reanalysis results and the free run results was performed. The root mean square deviations (RMSDs) between the reanalysis results and not-yet-assimilated observations at all levels show that, compared to the free run, temperature and salinity have been improved significantly, that is, by 31.1 and 38.8%, respectively. The vertical structure of the reanalyzed fields is also adjusted. The reanalysis results show that the improvements in both temperature and salinity are smaller at greater water depths. Comparison with independent CTD data, the reanalysis significantly improved temperatures and salinities in all layers relative to the free run. For temperature and salinity during the period of ship voyages, the RMSDs are reduced by 32.9 and 25.5%, respectively. The temporal variations of the deep-water salinity caused by saltwater inflows are better captured by the reanalysis than by the free run. Moreover, the reanalysis improved the estimation of the depth of the halocline and thermocline, which are overestimated in the simulation without data assimilation.
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| 26. |
- Löptien, Ulrike, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term characteristics of simulated ice deformation in the Baltic Sea (1962–2007)
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-9291 .- 2169-9275. ; 118:2, s. 801-815
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is a frequently used measure for the mean winter conditions in Northern Europe. A positive, high index is associated with strong westerlies and anomalous warm temperatures. The effects on sea ice conditions in the Baltic Sea are twofold. Warm temperatures prevent sea ice formation. If ice is present nevertheless, the strong winds can promote the formation of ice ridges which hinders ship traffic. We use an ocean-sea ice model to investigate the NAO impact on the ridged ice area fraction in the Baltic during 1962–2007. Our simulations indicate that in the northern Bothnian Bay, a high NAO index is related to an anomalous accumulation of ridges, while in the rest of the Baltic Sea, the relationship is contrary. The NAO explains locally at most only 20–25% of the ridged ice fraction interannual variability which indicates the systems complexity. However, we find high skill with local correlations around 0.8 for annually averaged ridged ice fraction reconstructed from multilinear regression using winter averaged wind extremes, surface air temperature, and sea surface temperature (SST). This suggests that the amount of ridged ice in late winter can be derived from these routinely measured quantities. In large parts of the basin, it is sufficient to use the atmospheric parameters as a predictor, while in the eastern Bothnian Bay and southern Gulf of Finland, the SST is required to reconstruct the bulk of the ridged ice fraction.
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| 27. |
- MacKenzie, Brian R., et al.
(författare)
-
Impact of Climate Change on Fish Population Dynamics in the Baltic Sea : A Dynamical Downscaling Investigation
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:6, s. 626-636
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Understanding how climate change, exploitation and eutrophication will affect populations and ecosystems of the Baltic Sea can be facilitated with models which realistically combine these forcings into common frameworks. Here, we evaluate sensitivity of fish recruitment and population dynamics to past and future environmental forcings provided by three ocean-biogeochemical models of the Baltic Sea. Modeled temperature explained nearly as much variability in reproductive success of sprat (Sprattus sprattus; Clupeidae) as measured temperatures during 1973-2005, and both the spawner biomass and the temperature have influenced recruitment for at least 50 years. The three Baltic Sea models estimate relatively similar developments (increases) in biomass and fishery yield during twenty-first century climate change (ca. 28 % range among models). However, this uncertainty is exceeded by the one associated with the fish population model, and by the source of global climate data used by regional models. Knowledge of processes and biases could reduce these uncertainties.
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| 28. |
- Meier, H. E. Markus, et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of Eutrophication Abatement Scenarios for the Baltic Sea by Multi-Model Ensemble Simulations
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 5
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To assess the impact of the implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) on the future environmental status of the Baltic Sea, available uncoordinated multi-model ensemble simulations for the Baltic Sea region for the twenty-first century were analyzed. The scenario simulations were driven by regionalized global general circulation model (GCM) data using several regional climate system models and forced by various future greenhouse gas emission and air- and river-borne nutrient load scenarios following either reference conditions or the BSAP. To estimate uncertainties in projections, the largest ever multi-model ensemble for the Baltic Sea comprising 58 transient simulations for the twenty-first century was assessed. Data from already existing simulations from different projects including regionalized GCM simulations of the third and fourth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change based on the corresponding Coupled Model Intercomparison Projects, CMIP3 and CMIP5, were collected.Various strategies to weigh the ensemble members were tested and the results for ensemble mean changes between future and present climates are shown to be robust with respect to the chosen metric. Although (1) the model simulations during the historical period are of different quality and (2) the assumptions on nutrient load levels during present and future periods differ between models considerably, the ensemble mean changes in biogeochemical variables in the Baltic proper with respect to nutrient load reductions are similar between the entire ensemble and a subset consisting only of the most reliable simulations.Despite the large spread in projections, the implementation of the BSAP will lead to a significant improvement of the environmental status of the Baltic Sea according to both weighted and unweighted ensembles. The results emphasize the need for investigating ensembles with many members and rigorous assessments of models’ performance.
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| 29. |
- Meier, H. E. Markus, et al.
(författare)
-
Assessment of Uncertainties in Scenario Simulations of Biogeochemical Cycles in the Baltic Sea
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Frontiers in Marine Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-7745. ; 6
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Following earlier regional assessment studies, such as the Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin and the North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment, knowledge acquired from available literature about future scenario simulations of biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea and their uncertainties is assessed. The identification and reduction of uncertainties of scenario simulations are issues for marine management. For instance, it is important to know whether nutrient load abatement will meet its objectives of restored water quality status in future climate or whether additional measures are required. However, uncertainties are large and their sources need to be understood to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of measures. The assessment of sources of uncertainties in projections of biogeochemical cycles based on authors' own expert judgment suggests that the biggest uncertainties are caused by (1) unknown current and future bioavailable nutrient loads from land and atmosphere, (2) the experimental setup (including the spin up strategy), (3) differences between the projections of global and regional climate models, in particular, with respect to the global mean sea level rise and regional water cycle, (4) differing model-specific responses of the simulated biogeochemical cycles to long-term changes in external nutrient loads and climate of the Baltic Sea region, and (5) unknown future greenhouse gas emissions. Regular assessments of the models' skill (or quality compared to observations) for the Baltic Sea region and the spread in scenario simulations (differences among projected changes) as well as improvement of dynamical downscaling methods are recommended.
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| 30. |
- Meier, H. E. Markus, et al.
(författare)
-
Ensemble Modeling of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem to Provide Scenarios for Management
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 43:1, s. 37-48
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.
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| 31. |
- Meier, H. E. Markus, et al.
(författare)
-
Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea : A Multi-Model Ensemble Study
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:6, s. 558-573
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.
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| 32. |
- Meier, H. E.Markus, et al.
(författare)
-
Overview : The Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEAR)
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Earth System Dynamics. - 2190-4979. ; 14:2, s. 519-531
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Baltic Earth is an independent research network of scientists from all Baltic Sea countries that promotes regional Earth system research. Within the framework of this network, the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports (BEARs) were produced in the period 2019-2022. These are a collection of 10 review articles summarising current knowledge on the environmental and climatic state of the Earth system in the Baltic Sea region and its changes in the past (palaeoclimate), present (historical period with instrumental observations) and prospective future (until 2100) caused by natural variability, climate change and other human activities. The division of topics among articles follows the grand challenges and selected themes of the Baltic Earth Science Plan, such as the regional water, biogeochemical and carbon cycles; extremes and natural hazards; sea-level dynamics and coastal erosion; marine ecosystems; coupled Earth system models; scenario simulations for the regional atmosphere and the Baltic Sea; and climate change and impacts of human use. Each review article contains an introduction, the current state of knowledge, knowledge gaps, conclusions and key messages; the latter are the bases on which recommendations for future research are made. Based on the BEARs, Baltic Earth has published an information leaflet on climate change in the Baltic Sea as part of its outreach work, which has been published in two languages so far, and organised conferences and workshops for stakeholders, in collaboration with the Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission (Helsinki Commission, HELCOM).
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| 33. |
- Moros, Matthias, et al.
(författare)
-
Giant saltwater inflow in AD 1951 triggered Baltic Sea hypoxia
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Boreas. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 0300-9483 .- 1502-3885. ; 53:2, s. 125-138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A marked sedimentological change in subsurface sediments from the entire Baltic Proper, the Baltic Sea, has been previously noted. Our detailed work on a variety of multi-cores from basin-wide transects indicates that this sedimentological change was caused by a large shift in environmental conditions during the 1950s. Until the 1950s, the water column was rather weakly stratified and winter-time convection - although weakened during the post Little Ice Age warming - was still able to ventilate the bottom waters of the Baltic Proper. Therefore, complete sediment sequences only accumulated in calm waters deeper than 150-160 m. High-resolution benthic foraminiferal records of subsurface sediments obtained along the saline water inflow pathway in combination with historical data indicate that the depositional environment changed drastically owing to the giant saline water inflow in AD 1951. The accompanied sharpening of the halo(pycno)cline triggered a collapse in the ventilation of the basin, resulting in oxygen-deficient bottom waters. This deficiency, in turn, caused the onset of phosphate release from the sediments, which accelerated primary production. The ventilation collapse also enabled the onset of deposition of organic carbon-rich sediments also in shallower water areas as calm conditions prevailed up to the modern winter mixing depth (60-70 m). A slight return to Little Ice Age-type conditions was observed during the late 1980s when temperatures decreased and stratification weakened. These conditions gave rise to a reduction in hypoxic areas and to a bottom-water ventilation, most pronounced in the north of the so-called Baltic Sea Klint, a hydrographic and topographic barrier. However, the general environmental conditions essentially have not changed since the 1950s. Remarkably, external (temperature and stratification) in combination with internal factors (e.g. ventilation collapse and phosphate release) were able to change the redox conditions of the Baltic Proper from oxic to hypoxic within less than 10 years. A marked sedimentological change seen in sub-recent seabed sediment cores from the entire Baltic proper can be attributed to large hydrographic and environmental changes that started at the end of the Little Ice Age and were accelerated by a rapid change in stratification resulting from the massive inflow of saline water in AD 1951. The increase in stratification caused a collapse of the already weakened vertical winter-time deep water convection leading to hypoxia in the bottom waters, which in turn forced a sudden phosphate release from the sediments and increased primary production in the late 1950s.image
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| 34. |
- Moros, Matthias, et al.
(författare)
-
Is 'deep-water formation' in the Baltic Sea a key to understanding seabed dynamics and ventilation changes over the past 7,000 years?
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Quaternary International. - : Elsevier BV. - 1040-6182 .- 1873-4553. ; 550, s. 55-65
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Numerous hydro-acoustic studies of the seabed of the Baltic Sea have revealed the unusual occurrence of sediment contourite drifts and re-suspension at greater water depths. In addition, radiocarbon dating of bulk sediments indicates significant age reversals. We present new geophysical, sediment proxy data (including extensive radiocarbon dating) and hydrographic measurements, which are combined with results of numerous marine geological studies performed during the last decades. These data indicate that a deep-water formation process significantly affected the seabed dynamics during regional climatically cold phases during the last c. 7,000 years. We propose that, during the colder periods (e.g. the Little Ice Age), newly formed bottom waters likely caused widespread re-suspension of organic carbon-rich laminated sediments that were deposited during the preceding warm periods in shallower areas, and this material was transported to and re-deposited in the deeper parts of the Baltic Sea sub-basins. In our scenario, a topographic feature, known as the Baltic Sea Klint, acted as a hydrographic barrier for deep-water formed in the northern Baltic. Thus, during the cold periods increased lateral matter influx from the northern Baltic led to the accumulation of much thicker macroscopically homogenous clayey sediments in sub-basins north of the Klint. Moreover, deep-water formation produced bottom currents that led to the formation of sediment contourite drifts at water depths of> 200 m in the Bothnian Sea, the Aland Deep and northern central Baltic Sea sub-basins. Bottom water ventilation in the Baltic Sea is generally assumed to be determined solely by the inflow of oxygen-rich, saline water from the North Sea, but we challenge this assumption and postulate that deep-water formation is a key process that ventilates the bottom waters of the Baltic Sea during climatically cold periods with substantial implications for its sedimentary archive.
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| 35. |
- Mårtensson, Sebastian, et al.
(författare)
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Ridged sea ice characteristics in the arctic from a coupled multicategory sea ice model
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans. - 2169-9291. ; 117:C8
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, a multicategory sea ice model with explicit ice classes for ridged and rafted ice was used to examine the evolution of deformed ice during the period 1980-2002. The results show that (1) ridged ice comprises roughly 45-60% of Arctic sea ice volume and 25-45% of the sea ice area, (2) most of the perennial ice consists of ridged ice, and (3) ridged ice exhibits a small seasonal variability. Our results also show an increase in mean ridged ice thickness of 4-6 cm yr(-1) during the summer in an area north of the Canadian Archipelago and a corresponding decrease in the East Siberian Sea and Nansen Basin. At the same time, Arctic sea ice age has been observed to decline and ice drift speed to increase during the simulation period. We connect these findings with a modeled regional increase in the production rate of ridged ice. Comparison of the multicategory model and a two category reference model shows a substantially increased ice production rate due to a more frequent occurrence of leads, resulting in an ice thickness increase of up to 0.8 m. Differences in ice physics between the multicategory and reference models also affect the freshwater content. The sum of liquid and solid freshwater content in the entire Arctic Ocean is about 10% lower and net precipitation (P-E) is about 7% lower as compared to the reference model.
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| 36. |
- Neumann, Thomas, et al.
(författare)
-
Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 41:6, s. 574-585
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.
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| 37. |
- Niiranen, Susa, et al.
(författare)
-
Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web
- 2013
-
Ingår i: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 19:11, s. 3327-3342
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large-scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multi-model approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient-climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat-dominated ecosystem, while low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod-dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, non-linearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem-based management context.
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| 38. |
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| 39. |
- Omstedt, Anders, 1949, et al.
(författare)
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Progress in physical oceanography of the Baltic Sea during the 2003–2014 period
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Progress in Oceanography. - : Elsevier BV. - 0079-6611 .- 1873-4472. ; 128, s. 139-171
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We review progress in Baltic Sea physical oceanography (including sea ice and atmosphere–land interactions) and Baltic Sea modelling, focusing on research related to BALTEX Phase II and other relevant work during the 2003–2014 period. The major advances achieved in this period are: Meteorological databases are now available to the research community, partly as station data, with a growing number of freely available gridded datasets on decadal and centennial time scales. The free availability of meteorological datasets supports the development of more accurate forcing functions for Baltic Sea models. In the last decade, oceanographic data have become much more accessible and new important measurement platforms, such as FerryBoxes and satellites, have provided better temporally and spatially resolved observations. Our understanding of how large-scale atmospheric circulation affects the Baltic Sea climate, particularly in winter, has improved. Internal variability is strong illustrating the dominant stochastic behaviour of the atmosphere. The heat and water cycles of the Baltic Sea are better understood. The importance of surface waves in air–sea interaction is better understood, and Stokes drift and Langmuir circulation have been identified as likely playing an important role in surface water mixing in sea water. We better understand sea ice dynamics and thermodynamics in the coastal zone where sea ice interaction between land and sea is crucial. The Baltic Sea’s various straits and sills are of increasing interest in seeking to understand water exchange and mixing. There has been increased research into the Baltic Sea coastal zone, particularly into upwelling, in the past decade. Modelling of the Baltic Sea–North Sea system, including the development of coupled land–sea–atmosphere models, has improved. Despite marked progress in Baltic Sea research over the last decade, several gaps remain in our knowledge and understanding. The current understanding of salinity changes is limited, and future projections of salinity evolution are uncertain. In addition, modelling of the hydrological cycle in atmospheric climate models is severely biased. More detailed investigations of regional precipitation and evaporation patterns (including runoff), atmospheric variability, highly saline water inflows, exchange between sub-basins, circulation, and especially turbulent mixing are still needed. Furthermore, more highly resolved oceanographic models are necessary. In addition, models that incorporate more advanced carbon cycle and ecosystem descriptions and improved description of water–sediment interactions are needed. Thereoceanographic coupled model systems. These and other research challenges are addressed by the recently formed Baltic Earth research programme, the successor of the BALTEX programme, which ended in 2013. Baltic Earth will treat anthropogenic changes and impacts together with their natural drivers. Baltic Earth will serve as a network for earth system sciences in the region, following in the BALTEX tradition but in a wider context.
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| 40. |
- Pemberton, Per, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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Arctic Ocean freshwater composition, pathways and transformations from a passive tracer simulation
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6495 .- 1600-0870. ; 66:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Freshwater (FW) induced transformations in the upper Arctic Ocean were studied using a coupled regional sea ice-ocean model driven by winds and thermodynamic forcing from a reanalysis of data during the period 1948-2011, focusing on the mean state during 1968-2011. Using passive tracers to mark a number of FW sources and sinks, their mean composition, pathways and export were examined. The distribution of the simulated FW height reproduced the known features of the Arctic Ocean and volume-integrated FW content matched climatological estimates reasonably well. Input from Eurasian rivers and extraction by sea-ice formation dominate the composition of the Arctic FW content whilst Pacific water increases in importance in the Canadian Basin. Though pathways generally agreed with previous studies the locus of the Eurasian runoff shelf-basin transport centred at the Alpha-Mendeleyev ridge, shifting the Pacific-Atlantic front eastwards. A strong coupling between tracers representing Eurasian runoff and sea-ice formation showed how water modified on the shelf spreads across the Arctic and mainly exits through the Fram Strait. Transformation to salinity dependent coordinates showed how Atlantic water is modified by both low-salinity shelf and Pacific waters in an estuary-like overturning producing water masses of intermediate salinity that are exported to the Nordic Seas. A total halocline renewal rate of 1.0 Sv, including both shelf-basin exchange and cross-isohaline flux, was estimated from the transports: both components were of equal magnitude. The model’s halocline shelf-basin exchange is dominated by runoff and sea-ice processes at the western shelves (the Barents and Kara seas) and Pacific water at the eastern shelves (the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi seas).
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| 41. |
- Pemberton, Per, et al.
(författare)
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Arctic Ocean Water Mass Transformation in S-T Coordinates
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Physical Oceanography. - 0022-3670 .- 1520-0485. ; 45:4, s. 1025-1050
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper, watermass transformations in the Arctic Ocean are studied using a recently developed salinity-temperature (S-T) framework. The framework allows the water mass transformations to be succinctly quantified by computing the surface and internal diffusive fluxes in S-T coordinates. This study shows how the method can be applied to a specific oceanic region, in this case the Arctic Ocean, by including the advective exchange of water masses across the boundaries of the region. Based on a simulation with a global ocean circulation model, the authors examine the importance of various parameterized mixing processes and surface fluxes for the transformation of water across isohaline and isothermal surfaces in the ArcticOcean. The model-based results reveal a broadly realistic Arctic Ocean where the inflowing Atlantic and Pacific waters are primarily cooled and freshened before exiting back to the North Atlantic. In the model, the water mass transformation in the T direction is primarily accomplished by the surface heat flux. However, the surface freshwater flux plays a minor role in the transformation of water toward lower salinities, which is mainly driven by a downgradient mixing of salt in the interior ocean. Near the freezing line, the seasonal melt and growth of sea ice influences the transformation pattern.
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| 42. |
- Schimanke, S., et al.
(författare)
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An algorithm based on sea-level pressure fluctuations to identify major Baltic inflow events
- 2014
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Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6495 .- 1600-0870. ; 66, s. 23452-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Major Baltic inflows are an important process to sustain the sensitive steady state of the Baltic Sea. We introduce an algorithm to identify atmospheric variability favourable for major Baltic inflows. The algorithm is based on sea-level pressure (SLP) fields as the only parameter. Characteristic SLP pattern fluctuations include a precursory phase of 30 days and 10 days of inflow period. The algorithm identifies successfully the majority of observed major Baltic inflows between 1961 and 2010. In addition, the algorithm finds some occurrences which cannot be related to observed inflows. In these cases with favourable atmospheric conditions, inflows were precluded by contemporaneously existing saline water masses or strong freshwater supply. Moreover, the algorithm clearly identifies the stagnation periods as a lack of SLP variability favourable for MBIs. This indicates that the lack of inflows is mainly a consequence of missing atmospheric forcing during this period. The only striking inflow which is not identified by the algorithm is the event in January 2003. We demonstrate that this is due to the special evolution of SLP fields which are not comparable with any other event. Finally, the algorithm is applied to an ensemble of scenario simulations. The result indicates that the number of atmospheric events favourable for major Baltic inflows increases slightly in all scenarios.
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| 43. |
- Skogen, Morten D., et al.
(författare)
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Eutrophication status of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea in present and future climates : A model study
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Marine Systems. - : Elsevier BV. - 0924-7963 .- 1879-1573. ; 132, s. 174-184
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models has been used to assess eutrophication. Using downscaled forcing from two GCMs under the A1B emission scenario, an assessment of the eutrophication status was made for a control (19702000) and a future climate (20702100) period. By using validation results from a hindcast to compute individual weights between the models, an assessment of eutrophication is done using a set of threshold values. The final classification distinguishes between three categories: problem area, potential problem area, and non-problem area, in accordance with current management practice as suggested by the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). For the control run the assessment indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas. In the future climate scenarios most of the previous potential problem areas in the Baltic Sea have become problem areas, except for the Bothnian Bay where the situation remain fairly unchanged. In the North Sea there seems to be no obvious changes in eutrophication status in the projected future climate.
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| 44. |
- Soomere, Tarmo, et al.
(författare)
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Patterns of current-induced transport in the surface layer of the Gulf of Finland
- 2011
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Ingår i: Boreal environment research. - 1239-6095 .- 1797-2469. ; 16, s. 49-63
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Lagrangian trajectory model TRACMASS based on an Eulerian field of velocities (calculated using the Rossby Centre Ocean Model), combined with relevant statistical analysis, is used for the identification of transport patterns in the surface layer of the Gulf of Finland from 1987-1991. The analysis of velocity fields and properties of net and bulk transport (the distance between the start and end positions of a trajectory, and the total length of the trajectory, respectively) shows the presence of semi-persistent (with a typical lifetime from a week to a few months) features of the surface-layer dynamics, a part of which evidently cannot be extracted directly from the velocity fields. The modelled surface dynamics mostly hosts an Ekman-type drift and, in yearly average, contains an anticyclonic gyre occupying the western part of the gulf. The prevailing transport directions to the east and slightly to the south match the direction of the Ekman surface drift created by predominant south-western winds. The spatial patterns of the net transport substantially vary over different seasons. The most intense net transport along the coasts occurs in the western and central parts of the gulf but contains relatively intense largely meridional transport pathways in some seasons.
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| 45. |
- Soomere, Tarmo, et al.
(författare)
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The Potential of Current- and Wind-Driven Transport for Environmental Management of the Baltic Sea
- 2014
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Ingår i: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 43:1, s. 94-104
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ever increasing impact of the marine industry and transport on vulnerable sea areas puts the marine environment under exceptional pressure and calls for inspired methods for mitigating the impact of the related risks. We describe a method for preventive reduction of remote environmental risks caused by the shipping and maritime industry that are transported by surface currents and wind impact to the coasts. This method is based on characterizing systematically the damaging potential of the offshore areas in terms of potential transport to vulnerable regions of an oil spill or other pollution that has occurred in a particular area. The resulting maps of probabilities of pollution to be transported to the nearshore and the time it takes for the pollution to reach the nearshore are used to design environmentally optimized fairways for the Gulf of Finland, Baltic Proper, and south-western Baltic Sea.
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| 46. |
- Vuorinen, Ilppo, et al.
(författare)
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Scenario simulations of future salinity and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea and adjacent North Sea areas-implications for environmental monitoring
- 2015
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Ingår i: Ecological Indicators. - : Elsevier BV. - 1470-160X .- 1872-7034. ; 50, s. 196-205
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Substantial ecological changes occurred in the 1970s in the Northern Baltic during a temporary period of low salinity (S). This period was preceded by an episodic increase in the rainfall over the Baltic Sea Watershed area. Several climate models, both global and regional, project an increase in the runoff of the Northern latitudes due to proceeding climate change. The aim of this study is to model, firstly, the effects on Baltic Sea salinity of increased runoff due to projected global change and, secondly, the effects of salinity change on the distribution of marine species. The results suggest a critical shift in the S range 5-7, which is a threshold for both freshwater and marine species distributions and diversity. We discuss several topics emphasizing future monitoring, modelling, and fisheries research. Environmental monitoring and modelling are investigated because the developing alternative ecosystems do not necessarily show the same relations to environment quality factors as the retiring ones. An important corollary is that the observed and modelled S changes considered together with species' ranges indicate what may appear under a future climate. Consequences could include a shift in distribution areas of marine benthic foundation species and some 40-50 other species, affiliated to these. This change would extend over hundreds of kilometres, in the Baltic Sea and the adjacent North Sea areas. Potential cascading effects, in coastal ecology, fish ecology and fisheries would be extensive, and point out the necessity to develop further the ecosystem approach in the environmental monitoring.
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| 47. |
- Wahlström, Irene, et al.
(författare)
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A model sensitivity study for the sea-air exchange of methane in the Laptev Sea, Arctic Ocean
- 2014
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Ingår i: Tellus. Series B, Chemical and physical meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6509 .- 1600-0889. ; 66, s. 24174-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ocean's sinks and sources determine the concentration of methane in the water column and by that regulating the emission of methane to the atmosphere. In this study, we investigate how sensitive the sea-air exchange of methane is to increasing/decreasing sinks and sources as well as changes of different drivers with a time-dependent biogeochemical budget model for one of the shallow shelf sea in the Siberian Arctic, the Laptev Sea. The applied changes are: increased air temperature, river discharge, wind, atmospheric methane, concentration of nutrients in the river runoff or flux of methane from the sediment. Furthermore, simulations are performed to examine how the large range in observations for methane concentration in the Lena River as well as the rate of oxidation affects the net sea-air exchange. In addition, a simulation with five of these changes applied together was carried out to simulate expected climate change at the end of this century. The result indicates that none of the simulations changed the seawater to becoming a net sink for atmospheric methane and all simulations except three increased the outgassing to the atmosphere. The three exceptions were: doubling the atmospheric methane, decreasing the rivers' concentration of methane and increasing the oxidation rate where the latter is one of the key mechanisms controlling emission of methane to the atmosphere.
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| 48. |
- Wang, Shiyu, et al.
(författare)
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Development and evaluation of a new regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model in the North Sea and Baltic Sea
- 2015
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Ingår i: Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. - : Stockholm University Press. - 0280-6495 .- 1600-0870. ; 67
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A new regional coupled model system for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea is developed, which is composed of the regional setup of ocean model NEMO, the Rossby Centre regional climate model RCA4, the sea ice model LIM3 and the river routing model CaMa-Flood. The performance of this coupled model system is assessed using a simulation forced with ERA-Interim reanalysis data at the lateral boundaries during the period 1979-2010. Compared to observations, this coupled model system can realistically simulate the present climate. Since the active coupling area covers the North Sea and Baltic Sea only, the impact of the ocean on the atmosphere over Europe is small. However, we found some local, statistically significant impacts on surface parameters like 2m air temperature and sea surface temperature (SST). A precipitation-SST correlation analysis indicates that both coupled and uncoupled models can reproduce the air-sea relationship reasonably well. However, the coupled simulation gives slightly better correlations even when all seasons are taken into account. The seasonal correlation analysis shows that the air-sea interaction has a strong seasonal dependence. Strongest discrepancies between the coupled and the uncoupled simulations occur during summer. Due to lack of air-sea interaction, in the Baltic Sea in the uncoupled atmosphere-standalone run the correlation between precipitation and SST is too small compared to observations, whereas the coupled run is more realistic. Further, the correlation analysis between heat flux components and SST tendency suggests that the coupled model has a stronger correlation. Our analyses show that this coupled model system is stable and suitable for different climate change studies.
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| 49. |
- Weigel, Benjamin, et al.
(författare)
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Long-term progression and drivers of coastal zoobenthos in a changing system
- 2015
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Ingår i: Marine Ecology Progress Series. - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 0171-8630 .- 1616-1599. ; 528, s. 141-159
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coastal zones are facing climate-driven change coupled with escalating eutrophication. With increasing shifts in hydrographic conditions during the past few decades, a focal task is to understand how environmental drivers affect zoobenthic communities, which play a crucial role in ecosystem functioning. By using long-term data, spanning 40 yr (1973 to 2013) in the northern Baltic Sea, we showed a disparity in zoobenthic responses with pronounced changes in community composition and a trend towards decreased biomass in sheltered areas, while biomasses increased in exposed areas of the coastal zone. We used generalized additive modeling to show that bottom oxygen saturation, sea surface temperature and organic load of the sediments were the main environmental drivers behind contrasting patterns in biomass progression. Oxygen saturation alone explained over one third of the deviation in the biomass developments in sheltered areas, while exposed areas were mainly limited by organic content of the sediments. We analyzed high-resolution climate-scenario simulations, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios for the Baltic Sea region in combination with different nutrient load scenarios, for the end of the 21st century. The scenario outcomes showed negative trends in bottom oxygen concentrations throughout the coastal and archipelago zone along with overall increasing temperatures and primary production, and decreasing salinity. Our results suggest that these projected future conditions will strengthen the observed pattern in decreasing zoobenthic production in the immediate coastal zones. Moreover, the potential intensification of unfavorable conditions ex-panding seaward may lead to an expansion of biomass loss to more exposed sites.
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| 50. |
- Zandersen, Marianne, et al.
(författare)
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Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea : exploring long-term environmental problems
- 2019
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Ingår i: Regional Environmental Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1436-3798 .- 1436-378X. ; 19:4, s. 1073-1086
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land -use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change).There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.
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