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| 3. |
- Bravo, L, et al.
(author)
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- 2021
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| 4. |
- Tabiri, S, et al.
(author)
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- 2021
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| 6. |
- Tran, K. B., et al.
(author)
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The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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In: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10352, s. 563-591
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 7. |
- Khatri, C, et al.
(author)
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Outcomes after perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection in patients with proximal femoral fractures: an international cohort study
- 2021
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In: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 11:11, s. e050830-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Studies have demonstrated high rates of mortality in people with proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, but there is limited published data on the factors that influence mortality for clinicians to make informed treatment decisions. This study aims to report the 30-day mortality associated with perioperative infection of patients undergoing surgery for proximal femoral fractures and to examine the factors that influence mortality in a multivariate analysis.SettingProspective, international, multicentre, observational cohort study.ParticipantsPatients undergoing any operation for a proximal femoral fracture from 1 February to 30 April 2020 and with perioperative SARS-CoV-2 infection (either 7 days prior or 30-day postoperative).Primary outcome30-day mortality. Multivariate modelling was performed to identify factors associated with 30-day mortality.ResultsThis study reports included 1063 patients from 174 hospitals in 19 countries. Overall 30-day mortality was 29.4% (313/1063). In an adjusted model, 30-day mortality was associated with male gender (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.68 to 3.13, p<0.001), age >80 years (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.31, p=0.013), preoperative diagnosis of dementia (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.15 to 2.16, p=0.005), kidney disease (OR 1.73, 95% CI 1.18 to 2.55, p=0.005) and congestive heart failure (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.48, p=0.025). Mortality at 30 days was lower in patients with a preoperative diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 (OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.6 (0.42 to 0.85), p=0.004). There was no difference in mortality in patients with an increase to delay in surgery (p=0.220) or type of anaesthetic given (p=0.787).ConclusionsPatients undergoing surgery for a proximal femoral fracture with a perioperative infection of SARS-CoV-2 have a high rate of mortality. This study would support the need for providing these patients with individualised medical and anaesthetic care, including medical optimisation before theatre. Careful preoperative counselling is needed for those with a proximal femoral fracture and SARS-CoV-2, especially those in the highest risk groups.Trial registration numberNCT04323644
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| 8. |
- Alvarez, E. M., et al.
(author)
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The global burden of adolescent and young adult cancer in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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In: Lancet Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1470-2045. ; 23:1, s. 27-52
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background In estimating the global burden of cancer, adolescents and young adults with cancer are often overlooked, despite being a distinct subgroup with unique epidemiology, clinical care needs, and societal impact. Comprehensive estimates of the global cancer burden in adolescents and young adults (aged 15-39 years) are lacking. To address this gap, we analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, with a focus on the outcome of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), to inform global cancer control measures in adolescents and young adults. Methods Using the GBD 2019 methodology, international mortality data were collected from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, and population-based cancer registry inputs modelled with mortality-to-incidence ratios (MIRs). Incidence was computed with mortality estimates and corresponding MIRs. Prevalence estimates were calculated using modelled survival and multiplied by disability weights to obtain years lived with disability (YLDs). Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated as age-specific cancer deaths multiplied by the standard life expectancy at the age of death. The main outcome was DALYs (the sum of YLLs and YLDs). Estimates were presented globally and by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintiles (countries ranked and divided into five equal SDI groups), and all estimates were presented with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). For this analysis, we used the age range of 15-39 years to define adolescents and young adults. Findings There were 1.19 million (95% UI 1.11-1.28) incident cancer cases and 396 000 (370 000-425 000) deaths due to cancer among people aged 15-39 years worldwide in 2019. The highest age-standardised incidence rates occurred in high SDI (59.6 [54.5-65.7] per 100 000 person-years) and high-middle SDI countries (53.2 [48.8-57.9] per 100 000 person-years), while the highest age-standardised mortality rates were in low-middle SDI (14.2 [12.9-15.6] per 100 000 person-years) and middle SDI (13.6 [12.6-14.8] per 100 000 person-years) countries. In 2019, adolescent and young adult cancers contributed 23.5 million (21.9-25.2) DALYs to the global burden of disease, of which 2.7% (1.9-3.6) came from YLDs and 97.3% (96.4-98.1) from YLLs. Cancer was the fourth leading cause of death and tenth leading cause of DALYs in adolescents and young adults globally. Interpretation Adolescent and young adult cancers contributed substantially to the overall adolescent and young adult disease burden globally in 2019. These results provide new insights into the distribution and magnitude of the adolescent and young adult cancer burden around the world. With notable differences observed across SDI settings, these estimates can inform global and country-level cancer control efforts. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 10. |
- Bryazka, D., et al.
(author)
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Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020
- 2022
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In: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10347, s. 185-235
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The health risks associated with moderate alcohol consumption continue to be debated. Small amounts of alcohol might lower the risk of some health outcomes but increase the risk of others, suggesting that the overall risk depends, in part, on background disease rates, which vary by region, age, sex, and year. Methods For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose-response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15-95 years and older from 1990 to 2020. Based on the NDE, we quantified the population consuming harmful amounts of alcohol. Findings The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15-39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0-0) and 0.603 (0.400-1.00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0.002 (0-0) and 1.75 (0.698-4.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0.114 (0-0.403) to 1.87 (0.500-3.30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0.193 (0-0.900) and 6.94 (3.40-8.30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals consuming harmful amounts of alcohol in 2020, 59.1% (54.3-65.4) were aged 15-39 years and 76.9% (7.0-81.3) were male. Interpretation There is strong evidence to support recommendations on alcohol consumption varying by age and location. Stronger interventions, particularly those tailored towards younger individuals, are needed to reduce the substantial global health loss attributable to alcohol. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 11. |
- Ikuta, K. S., et al.
(author)
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Global mortality associated with 33 bacterial pathogens in 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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In: Lancet. - : Elsevier BV. - 0140-6736. ; 400:10369, s. 2221-2248
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Reducing the burden of death due to infection is an urgent global public health priority. Previous studies have estimated the number of deaths associated with drug-resistant infections and sepsis and found that infections remain a leading cause of death globally. Understanding the global burden of common bacterial pathogens (both susceptible and resistant to antimicrobials) is essential to identify the greatest threats to public health. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present global comprehensive estimates of deaths associated with 33 bacterial pathogens across 11 major infectious syndromes. Methods We estimated deaths associated with 33 bacterial genera or species across 11 infectious syndromes in 2019 using methods from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, in addition to a subset of the input data described in the Global Burden of Antimicrobial Resistance 2019 study. This study included 343 million individual records or isolates covering 11 361 study-location-years. We used three modelling steps to estimate the number of deaths associated with each pathogen: deaths in which infection had a role, the fraction of deaths due to infection that are attributable to a given infectious syndrome, and the fraction of deaths due to an infectious syndrome that are attributable to a given pathogen. Estimates were produced for all ages and for males and females across 204 countries and territories in 2019. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for final estimates of deaths and infections associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens following standard GBD methods by taking the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles across 1000 posterior draws for each quantity of interest. Findings From an estimated 13.7 million (95% UI 10.9-17.1) infection-related deaths in 2019, there were 7.7 million deaths (5.7-10.2) associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens (both resistant and susceptible to antimicrobials) across the 11 infectious syndromes estimated in this study. We estimated deaths associated with the 33 bacterial pathogens to comprise 13.6% (10.2-18.1) of all global deaths and 56.2% (52.1-60.1) of all sepsis-related deaths in 2019. Five leading pathogens-Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Klebsiella pneumoniae, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa-were responsible for 54.9% (52.9-56.9) of deaths among the investigated bacteria. The deadliest infectious syndromes and pathogens varied by location and age. The age-standardised mortality rate associated with these bacterial pathogens was highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, with 230 deaths (185-285) per 100 000 population, and lowest in the high-income super-region, with 52.2 deaths (37.4-71.5) per 100 000 population. S aureus was the leading bacterial cause of death in 135 countries and was also associated with the most deaths in individuals older than 15 years, globally. Among children younger than 5 years, S pneumoniae was the pathogen associated with the most deaths. In 2019, more than 6 million deaths occurred as a result of three bacterial infectious syndromes, with lower respiratory infections and bloodstream infections each causing more than 2 million deaths and peritoneal and intra-abdominal infections causing more than 1 million deaths. Interpretation The 33 bacterial pathogens that we investigated in this study are a substantial source of health loss globally, with considerable variation in their distribution across infectious syndromes and locations. Compared with GBD Level 3 underlying causes of death, deaths associated with these bacteria would rank as the second leading cause of death globally in 2019; hence, they should be considered an urgent priority for intervention within the global health community. Strategies to address the burden of bacterial infections include infection prevention, optimised use of antibiotics, improved capacity for microbiological analysis, vaccine development, and improved and more pervasive use of available vaccines. These estimates can be used to help set priorities for vaccine need, demand, and development. Copyright (c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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| 12. |
- Kocarnik, J. M., et al.
(author)
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Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019 A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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In: Jama Oncology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2374-2437 .- 2374-2445. ; 8:3, s. 420-488
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IMPORTANCE The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEW The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3%(95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9%(95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4%(1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7%(4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and YDALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.
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| 14. |
- Sheena, B. S., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national burden of hepatitis B, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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In: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:9, s. 796-829
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Combating viral hepatitis is part of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and WHO has put forth hepatitis B elimination targets in its Global Health Sector Strategy on Viral Hepatitis (WHO-GHSS) and Interim Guidance for Country Validation of Viral Hepatitis Elimination (WHO Interim Guidance). We estimated the global, regional, and national prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV), as well as mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to HBV, as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. This included estimates for 194 WHO member states, for which we compared our estimates to WHO elimination targets. Methods The primary data sources were population-based serosurveys, claims and hospital discharges, cancer registries, vital registration systems, and published case series. We estimated chronic HBV infection and the burden of HBV-related diseases, defined as an aggregate of cirrhosis due to hepatitis B, liver cancer due to hepatitis B, and acute hepatitis B. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian mixed-effects meta-regression tool, to estimate the prevalence of chronic HBV infection, cirrhosis, and aetiological proportions of cirrhosis. We used mortality-to-incidence ratios modelled with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to estimate the incidence of liver cancer. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) model, a tool that selects models and covariates on the basis of out-ofsample performance, to estimate mortality due to cirrhosis, liver cancer, and acute hepatitis B. Findings In 2019, the estimated global, all-age prevalence of chronic HBV infection was 4 center dot 1% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3 center dot 7 to 4 center dot 5), corresponding to 316 million (284 to 351) infected people. There was a 31 center dot 3% (29 center dot 0 to 33 center dot 9) decline in all-age prevalence between 1990 and 2019, with a more marked decline of 76 center dot 8% (76 center dot 2 to 77 center dot 5) in prevalence in children younger than 5 years. HBV-related diseases resulted in 555 000 global deaths (487 000 to 630 000) in 2019. The number of HBV-related deaths increased between 1990 and 2019 (by 5 center dot 9% [-5 center dot 6 to 19 center dot 2]) and between 2015 and 2019 (by 2 center dot 9% [-5 center dot 9 to 11 center dot 3]). By contrast, all-age and age-standardised death rates due to HBV-related diseases decreased during these periods. We compared estimates for 2019 in 194 WHO locations to WHO-GHSS 2020 targets, and found that four countries achieved a 10% reduction in deaths, 15 countries achieved a 30% reduction in new cases, and 147 countries achieved a 1% prevalence in children younger than 5 years. As of 2019, 68 of 194 countries had already achieved the 2030 target proposed in WHO Interim Guidance of an all-age HBV-related death rate of four per 100 000. Interpretation The prevalence of chronic HBV infection declined over time, particularly in children younger than 5 years, since the introduction of hepatitis B vaccination. HBV-related death rates also decreased, but HBV-related death counts increased as a result of population growth, ageing, and cohort effects. By 2019, many countries had met the interim seroprevalence target for children younger than 5 years, but few countries had met the WHO-GHSS interim targets for deaths and new cases. Progress according to all indicators must be accelerated to meet 2030 targets, and there are marked disparities in burden and progress across the world. HBV interventions, such as vaccination, testing, and treatment, must be strategically supported and scaled up to achieve elimination.
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| 15. |
- Sharma, R., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
- 2022
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In: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:7, s. 627-647
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Colorectal cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Given the recent increasing trends in colorectal cancer incidence globally, up-to-date information on the colorectal cancer burden could guide screening, early detection, and treatment strategies, and help effectively allocate resources. We examined the temporal patterns of the global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors in 204 countries and territories across the past three decades. Methods Estimates of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for colorectal cancer were generated as a part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 by age, sex, and geographical location for the period 1990-2019. Mortality estimates were produced using the cause of death ensemble model. We also calculated DALYs attributable to risk factors that had evidence of causation with colorectal cancer. Findings Globally, between 1990 and 2019, colorectal cancer incident cases more than doubled, from 842 098 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 810 408-868 574) to 2.17 million (2.00-2.34), and deaths increased from 518 126 (493 682-537 877) to 1.09 million (1.02-1.15). The global age-standardised incidence rate increased from 22.2 (95% UI 21.3-23.0) per 100 000 to 26.7 (24.6-28.9) per 100 000, whereas the age-standardised mortality rate decreased from 14.3 (13.5-14.9) per 100 000 to 13.7 (12.6-14.5) per 100 000 and the age-standardised DALY rate decreased from 308.5 (294.7-320.7) per 100 000 to 295.5 (275.2-313.0) per 100 000 from 1990 through 2019. Taiwan (province of China; 62.0 [48.9-80.0] per 100 000), Monaco (60.7 [48.5-73.6] per 100 000), and Andorra (56.6 [42.8-71.9] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised incidence rates, while Greenland (31.4 [26.0-37.1] per 100 000), Brunei (30.3 [26.6-34.1] per 100 000), and Hungary (28.6 [23.6-34.0] per 100 000) had the highest age-standardised mortality rates. From 1990 through 2019, a substantial rise in incidence rates was observed in younger adults (age <50 years), particularly in high Socio-demographic Index (SDI) countries. Globally, a diet low in milk (15.6%), smoking (13.3%), a diet low in calcium (12.9%), and alcohol use (9.9%) were the main contributors to colorectal cancer DALYs in 2019. Interpretation The increase in incidence rates in people younger than 50 years requires vigilance from researchers, clinicians, and policy makers and a possible reconsideration of screening guidelines. The fast-rising burden in low SDI and middle SDI countries in Asia and Africa calls for colorectal cancer prevention approaches, greater awareness, and cost-effective screening and therapeutic options in these regions. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 33. |
- Tobias, Deirdre K, et al.
(author)
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Second international consensus report on gaps and opportunities for the clinical translation of precision diabetes medicine
- 2023
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In: Nature Medicine. - 1546-170X. ; 29:10, s. 2438-2457
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Precision medicine is part of the logical evolution of contemporary evidence-based medicine that seeks to reduce errors and optimize outcomes when making medical decisions and health recommendations. Diabetes affects hundreds of millions of people worldwide, many of whom will develop life-threatening complications and die prematurely. Precision medicine can potentially address this enormous problem by accounting for heterogeneity in the etiology, clinical presentation and pathogenesis of common forms of diabetes and risks of complications. This second international consensus report on precision diabetes medicine summarizes the findings from a systematic evidence review across the key pillars of precision medicine (prevention, diagnosis, treatment, prognosis) in four recognized forms of diabetes (monogenic, gestational, type 1, type 2). These reviews address key questions about the translation of precision medicine research into practice. Although not complete, owing to the vast literature on this topic, they revealed opportunities for the immediate or near-term clinical implementation of precision diabetes medicine; furthermore, we expose important gaps in knowledge, focusing on the need to obtain new clinically relevant evidence. Gaps include the need for common standards for clinical readiness, including consideration of cost-effectiveness, health equity, predictive accuracy, liability and accessibility. Key milestones are outlined for the broad clinical implementation of precision diabetes medicine.
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| 35. |
- Paice, J. A., et al.
(author)
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The evolution of rapid optical/X-ray timing correlations in the initial hard state of MAXIJ1820+070
- 2021
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 505:3, s. 3452-3469
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report on a multiepoch campaign of rapid optical/X-ray timing observations of the superbright 2018 outburst of MAXIJ1820+070, a black hole low-mass X-ray binary system. The observations spanned 80 d in the initial hard state and were taken with NTT/ULTRACAM and GTC/HiPERCAM in the optical (u(s)g(s)r(s)i(s)z(s) filters at time resolutions of 8-300Hz) and with ISS/NICER in X-rays. We find (i) a growing anticorrelation between the optical and X-ray light curves, (ii) a steady, positive correlation at an optical lag of similar to 0.2s (with a longer lag at longer wavelengths) present in all epochs, and (iii) a curious positive correlation at negative optical lags in the last, X-ray softest epoch, with longer wavelengths showing a greater correlation and a more negative lag. To explain these, we postulate the possible existence of two synchrotron-emitting components - a compact jet and a hot flow. In our model, the significance of the jet decreases over the outburst, while the hot flow remains static (thus, relatively, increasing in significance). We also discuss a previously discovered quasi-periodic oscillation and note how it creates coherent optical time lags, stronger at longer wavelengths, during at least two epochs.
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| 37. |
- Dastidar, R., et al.
(author)
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The optical properties of three Type II supernovae : 2014cx, 2014cy, and 2015cz
- 2021
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 504:1, s. 1009-1028
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present the photometric and spectroscopic analysis of three Type II supernovae (SNe): 2014cx, 2014cy, and 2015cz. SN 2014cx is a conventional Type IIP with shallow slope (0.2 mag/50 d) and an atypical short plateau (∼86 d). SNe 2014cy and 2015cz show relatively large decline rates (0.88 and 1.64 mag/50 d, respectively) at early times before settling to the plateau phase, unlike the canonical Type IIP/L SN light curves. All of them are normal luminosity SN II with an absolute magnitude at mid-plateau of M50V,14cx=−16.6±0.4mag, M50V,14cy=−16.5±0.2mag, and M50V,15cz=−17.4±0.3mag. A relatively broad range of 56Ni masses is ejected in these explosions (0.027–0.070 M⊙). The spectra shows the classical evolution of SNe II, dominated by a blue continuum with broad H lines at early phases and narrower metal lines with P Cygni profiles during the plateau. High-velocity H i features are identified in the plateau spectra of SN 2014cx at 11 600 kms −1, possibly a sign of ejecta-circumstellar interaction. The spectra of SN 2014cy exhibit strong absorption profile of H i similar to normal luminosity events whereas strong metal lines akin to sub-luminous SNe. The analytical modelling of the bolometric light curve of the three events yields similar progenitor radii within errors (478, 507, and 660 R ⊙ for SNe 2014cx, 2014cy, and 2015cz, respectively), a range of ejecta masses (15.0, 22.2, and 20.6 M ⊙ for SNe 2014cx, 2014cy, and 2015cz), and a modest range of explosion energies (3.3–7.2 foe where 1 foe=10 51erg).
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| 38. |
- Fauchez, Thomas J. J., et al.
(author)
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TRAPPIST Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) Workshop Report
- 2021
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In: The Planetary Science Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 2632-3338. ; 2:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The era of atmospheric characterization of terrestrial exoplanets is just around the corner. Modeling prior to observations is crucial in order to predict the observational challenges and to prepare for the data interpretation. This paper presents the report of the TRAPPIST Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison workshop (2020 September 14-16). A review of the climate models and parameterizations of the atmospheric processes on terrestrial exoplanets, model advancements, and limitations, as well as direction for future model development, was discussed. We hope that this report will be used as a roadmap for future numerical simulations of exoplanet atmospheres and maintaining strong connections to the astronomical community.
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| 39. |
- Fusai, Giuseppe Kito, et al.
(author)
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Pancreatic surgery outcomes: multicentre prospective snapshot study in 67 countries
- 2023
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In: British Journal of Surgery. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0007-1323 .- 1365-2168.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Pancreatic surgery remains associated with high morbidity rates. Although postoperative mortality appears to have improved with specialization, the outcomes reported in the literature reflect the activity of highly specialized centres. The aim of this study was to evaluate the outcomes following pancreatic surgery worldwide. Methods: This was an international, prospective, multicentre, cross-sectional snapshot study of consecutive patients undergoing pancreatic operations worldwide in a 3-month interval in 2021. The primary outcome was postoperative mortality within 90 days of surgery. Multivariable logistic regression was used to explore relationships with Human Development Index (HDI) and other parameters. Results: A total of 4223 patients from 67 countries were analysed. A complication of any severity was detected in 68.7 percent of patients (2901 of 4223). Major complication rates (Clavien-Dindo grade at least IIIa) were 24, 18, and 27 percent, and mortality rates were 10, 5, and 5 per cent in low-to-middle-, high-, and very high-HDI countries respectively. The 90-day postoperative mortality rate was 5.4 per cent (229 of 4223) overall, but was significantly higher in the low-to-middle-HDI group (adjusted OR 2.88, 95 per cent c.i. 1.80 to 4.48). The overall failure-to-rescue rate was 21 percent; however, it was 41 per cent in low-to-middle-compared with 19 per cent in very high-HDI countries. Conclusion: Excess mortality in low-to-middle-HDI countries could be attributable to failure to rescue of patients from severe complications. The authors call for a collaborative response from international and regional associations of pancreatic surgeons to address management related to death from postoperative complications to tackle the global disparities in the outcomes of pancreatic surgery (NCT04652271; ISRCTN95140761).
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| 40. |
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| 41. |
- Mohanty, A. K., et al.
(author)
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Sustainable polymers
- 2022
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In: Nature Reviews Methods Primers. - : Springer Nature. - 2662-8449. ; 2:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Sustainable polymers are materials derived from renewable, recycled and waste carbon resources and their combinations, which at the end of life can be recycled, biodegraded or composted. Sustainable polymers also exhibit reduced environmental impact throughout their life cycle. This Primer presents an overview of the research in and potential of sustainable polymers, with a focus on their life cycle, synthetic routes from renewable carbon feedstocks, production, material characterization, applications, end of life, data reproducibility and limitations faced, and provides a brief outlook. The Primer also briefly covers other carbon feedstocks such as carbon dioxide and wastes, including agricultural and woody residues. Although still in their infancy, new sustainable polymers are already finding applications in packaging, automotive parts and 3D printing. This Primer also discusses the headwinds facing the adoption of sustainable polymers, including complexities of recycling and composting, manufacturing scale-up, data reproducibility, deposition and potential solutions. Development of sustainable polymers will accelerate the age of sustainable polymers and create a truly circular economy for plastics by reducing production and use of virgin plastics from finite resources.
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| 42. |
- Rivier, Cyprien A, et al.
(author)
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Polygenic Risk of Epilepsy and Post-Stroke Epilepsy.
- 2023
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In: medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Epilepsy is highly heritable, with numerous known genetic risk loci. However, the genetic predisposition's role in post-acute brain injury epilepsy remains understudied. This study assesses whether a higher genetic predisposition to epilepsy raises post-stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack (TIA) survivor's risk of Post-Stroke Epilepsy (PSE).We conducted a three-stage genetic analysis. First, we identified independent epilepsy-associated ( p <5x10 -8 ) genetic variants from public data. Second, we estimated PSE-specific variant weights in stroke/TIA survivors from the UK Biobank. Third, we tested for an association between a polygenic risk score (PRS) and PSE risk in stroke/TIA survivors from the All of Us Research Program. Primary analysis included all ancestries, while a secondary analysis was restricted to European ancestry only. A sensitivity analysis excluded TIA survivors. Association testing was conducted via multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for age, sex, and genetic ancestry.Among 19,708 UK Biobank participants with stroke/TIA, 805 (4.1%) developed PSE. Likewise, among 12,251 All of Us participants with stroke/TIA, 394 (3.2%) developed PSE. After establishing PSE-specific weights for 39 epilepsy-linked genetic variants in the UK Biobank, the resultant PRS was associated with elevated odds of PSE development in All of Us (OR:1.16[1.02-1.32]). A similar result was obtained when restricting to participants of European ancestry (OR:1.23[1.02-1.49]) and when excluding participants with a TIA history (OR:1.18[1.02-1.38]).Our findings suggest that akin to other forms of epilepsy, genetic predisposition plays an essential role in PSE. Because the PSE data were sparse, our results should be interpreted cautiously.
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| 43. |
- Semb, Anne Grete, et al.
(author)
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Diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk management in patients with rheumatoid arthritis: An international audit
- 2021
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In: RMD Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2056-5933. ; 7:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aim: The objective was to examine the prevalence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) and its risk factors among patients with RA with diabetes mellitus (RA-DM) and patients with RA without diabetes mellitus (RAwoDM), and to evaluate lipid and blood pressure (BP) goal attainment in RA-DM and RAwoDM in primary and secondary prevention.Methods: The cohort was derived from the Survey of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis from 53 centres/19 countries/3 continents during 2014-2019. We evaluated the prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among RA-DM and RAwoDM. The study population was divided into those with and without ASCVD, and within these groups we compared risk factors and CVD preventive treatment between RA-DM and RAwoDM.Results: The study population comprised of 10 543 patients with RA, of whom 1381 (13%) had DM. ASCVD was present in 26.7% in RA-DM compared with 11.6% RAwoDM (p<0.001). The proportion of patients with a diagnosis of hypertension, hyperlipidaemia and use of lipid-lowering or antihypertensive agents was higher among RA-DM than RAwoDM (p<0.001 for all). The majority of patients with ASCVD did not reach the lipid goal of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol <1.8 mmol/L. The lipid goal attainment was statistically and clinically significantly higher in RA-DM compared with RAwoDM both for patients with and without ASCVD. The systolic BP target of <140 mm Hg was reached by the majority of patients, and there were no statistically nor clinically significant differences in attainment of BP targets between RA-DM and RAwoDM.Conclusion: CVD preventive medication use and prevalence of ASCVD were higher in RA-DM than in RAwoDM, and lipid goals were also more frequently obtained in RA-DM. Lessons may be learnt from CVD prevention programmes in DM to clinically benefit patients with RA.
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| 44. |
- Wienhues, Giulia, et al.
(author)
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Latest pleistocene and holocene primary producer communities and hydroclimate in Lake Victoria, Eastern Africa
- 2024
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In: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 330
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Lake Victoria ecosystem is emblematic of the catastrophic effects that human activities, particularly cultural eutrophication, can have on freshwater biodiversity. However, little is known about the long-term spatial and temporal pattern of aquatic primary paleo-production (PPaq) and producer communities in Lake Victoria and how these patterns relate to past climate variability, landscape evolution, lake hydrology, mixing regimes, nutrient cycling, and biodiversity dynamics in the past 17 kyr. We use sediments from four well-dated cores along a transect from offshore to nearshore sites, and exploit XRF element scanning and hyperspectral imaging data, TC, TN, bSi, δ13C and δ15N, and sedimentary pigments to investigate paleolimnological variability and change. Our findings demonstrate that changes in PPaq and algal communities during the past 17 kyr were closely related to hydroclimatic changes, lake mixing, and nutrient availability. During the wetland phase (16.7–14.5 cal ka BP), PPaq levels remained generally low, while chromophytes and chlorophytes dominated the algal community. Following the rapid lake level rise (∼14.2 cal ka BP) during the early African Humid Period (AHP), PPaq levels steadily increased, accompanied by a shift towards cyanobacteria and chromophytes. During the Holocene, our results suggest repeated short-lived arid intervals (∼10.5, ∼9, 7.8–7.2, ∼4, and 3.2–3.0 cal ka BP) and two distinct periods of enhanced lake mixing associated with high PPaq and high diatom productivity: the first one between 11 and 9 cal ka BP, which coincided with the maximum of the AHP (high precipitation, high wind, enhanced mixing), and the second, less pronounced one, between 7 and 4 cal ka BP. Between these two periods (i.e. 9–7 cal ka BP) we observe reduced diatom productivity, relatively low PPaq, and high C/N ratios, suggesting conditions with more stable lake stratification, likely associated with reduced wind strength, and some nutrient limitation (N and P). Finally, the drier conditions around the end of the AHP (ca. 4 cal ka BP) and during the late Holocene were associated with decreasing lake mixing and increasing dominance of cyanobacteria. Given our reconstruction of PPaq over the past 17 kyr, we conclude that the levels in the 20th century are unprecedentedly high, consistent with the massive human-mediated impact on the Lake Victoria ecosystem including biodiversity loss.
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| 45. |
- Chandrasekaran, Sundaram, et al.
(author)
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Advanced opportunities and insights on the influence of nitrogen incorporation on the physico-/electro-chemical properties of robust electrocatalysts for electrocatalytic energy conversion
- 2021
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In: Coordination chemistry reviews. - : Elsevier. - 0010-8545 .- 1873-3840. ; 449
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The use of a wide range of methods for incorporating nitrogen atoms on robust catalysts has given rise to fundamental advances in the field of energy conversion and storage. Recently, nitrogen incorporation has proven to be able to fine-tune the electron densities of exposed active sites to create high-performance electrocatalysts. The preservation of a strong interface between the local atomic coordination of nitrogen atoms on bare carbon, single metal atoms, transition metal oxides, metal chalcogenides, and MXenes during synthesis plays an important role in producing an efficient electrocatalysts. In addition, the ability of nitrogen atoms to bind with carbon or metal atoms can be influenced by processing conditions. In this regard, this review is the first comprehensive overview of the range of synthetic strategies to form nitrogen incorporated catalysts and assess their chemical, structural, physical electronic property modification and their influence on electrocatalytic ORR, OER, and HER performance. This review will describe how specific strategies have been utilized to realise effective electrocatalytic systems, including the energy conversion of nitrogen incorporated catalysts, structural coordination, and material optimization. Finally, the main challenges to be considered in future investigations in order to initiate new research efforts in this promising research area are discussed.
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| 46. |
- Fauchez, Thomas J., et al.
(author)
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The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). III. Simulated Observables-the Return of the Spectrum
- 2022
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In: The Planetary Science Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 2632-3338. ; 3:9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) is a community project that aims to quantify how differences in general circulation models (GCMs) could impact the climate prediction for TRAPPIST-1e and, subsequently, its atmospheric characterization in transit. Four GCMs have participated in THAI: ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, and the UM. This paper, focused on the simulated observations, is the third part of a trilogy, following the analysis of two land planet scenarios (Part I) and two aquaplanet scenarios (Part II). Here we show a robust agreement between the simulated spectra and the number of transits estimated to detect the land planet atmospheres. For the cloudy aquaplanet ones, a 5 sigma detection of CO2 could be achieved in about 10 transits if the atmosphere contains at least 1 bar of CO2. That number can vary by 41%-56% depending on the GCM used to predict the terminator profiles, principally due to differences in the cloud deck altitude, with ExoCAM and LMD-G producing higher clouds than ROCKE-3D and UM. Therefore, for the first time, this work provides "GCM uncertainty error bars" of similar to 50% that need to be considered in future analyses of transmission spectra. We also analyzed the intertransit spectral variability. Its magnitude differs significantly between the GCMs, but its impact on the transmission spectra is within the measurement uncertainties. THAI has demonstrated the importance of model intercomparison for exoplanets and also paved the way for a larger project to develop an intercomparison meta-framework, namely, the Climates Using Interactive Suites of Intercomparisons Nested for Exoplanet Studies.
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| 47. |
- Gremmelspacher, Jonas Manuel, et al.
(author)
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Future climate resilience through informed decision making in retrofitting projects
- 2020
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In: Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2020 : 20th International Conference, Proceedings - 20th International Conference, Proceedings. - Cham : Springer International Publishing. - 1611-3349 .- 0302-9743. - 9783030588076 - 9783030588083 ; 12251 LNCS, s. 352-364
-
Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- High energy use for space conditioning in residential buildings is a significant economic factor for owners and tenants, but also contributes to resource depletion and carbon emissions due to energy generation. Many existing dwellings should thus be retrofitted in order to fulfil the ambitious EU carbon emission mitigation goals by 2050. To investigate how future climate resilience can be implemented in the design process of retrofitting measures, this study concentrates on real case studies that have been retrofitted during the past decade. The performance of retrofitting measures for four case studies in Denmark and Germany were investigated under future climate projections and compared between the non-retrofitted initial stage of the buildings and the retrofitted stage. Building performance simulations were employed to investigate how severe the effects of climate change until the end of the 21st century on the material choice and system design is. Results show that summertime thermal comfort will be a major challenge in the future. Energy use for space heating was seen to decrease for periods in the future, also the severity of cold events decreased, resulting in a decline of heating peak loads. Additionally, not considering extreme events was proven to lead to miss-dimensioning thermal systems. Overall, the study shows that adaptation of informed decisions, accounting for the uncertainties of future climate, can bring a significant benefit for energy-efficient retrofits, potentially promoting adequate passive measures as well as free cooling to prevent overheating and enhance heat removal.
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| 48. |
- Kowal, Marta, et al.
(author)
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Reasons for Facebook Usage : Data From 46 Countries
- 2020
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In: Frontiers in Psychology. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 1664-1078. ; 11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Introduction: Seventy-nine percent of internet users use Facebook, and on average they access Facebook eight times a day (Greenwood et al., 2016). To put these numbers into perspective, according to Clement (2019), around 30% of the world's population uses this Online Social Network (OSN) site.Despite the constantly growing body of academic research on Facebook (Chou et al., 2009; Back et al., 2010; Kaplan and Haenlein, 2010; McAndrew and Jeong, 2012; Wilson et al., 2012; Krasnova et al., 2017), there remains limited research regarding the motivation behind Facebook use across different cultures. Our main goal was to collect data from a large cross-cultural sample of Facebook users to examine the roles of sex, age, and, most importantly, cultural differences underlying Facebook use.
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| 49. |
- Kumar, Harsh, et al.
(author)
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The long-active afterglow of GRB 210204A : detection of the most delayed flares in a gamma-ray burst
- 2022
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 513:2, s. 2777-2793
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present results from extensive broadband follow-up of GRB 210204A over the period of 30 d. We detect optical flares in the afterglow at 7.6 x 10(5) s and 1.1 x 10(6) s after the burst: the most delayed flaring ever detected in a GRB afterglow. At the source redshift of 0.876, the rest-frame delay is 5.8 x 10(5) s (6.71 d). We investigate possible causes for this flaring and conclude that the most likely cause is a refreshed shock in the jet. The prompt emission of the GRB is within the range of typical long bursts: it shows three disjoint emission episodes, which all follow the typical GRB correlations. This suggests that GRB 210204A might not have any special properties that caused late-time flaring, and the lack of such detections for other afterglows might be resulting from the paucity of late-time observations. Systematic late-time follow-up of a larger sample of GRBs can shed more light on such afterglow behaviour. Further analysis of the GRB 210204A shows that the late-time bump in the light curve is highly unlikely due to underlying SNe at redshift (z) = 0.876 and is more likely due to the late-time flaring activity. The cause of this variability is not clearly quantifiable due to the lack of multiband data at late-time constraints by bad weather conditions. The flare of GRB 210204A is the latest flare detected to date.
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| 50. |
- Misra, Shivani, et al.
(author)
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The case for precision medicine in the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of cardiometabolic diseases in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2023
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In: The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. - 2213-8587. ; 11:11, s. 836-847
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cardiometabolic diseases are the leading preventable causes of death in most geographies. The causes, clinical presentations, and pathogenesis of cardiometabolic diseases vary greatly worldwide, as do the resources and strategies needed to prevent and treat them. Therefore, there is no single solution and health care should be optimised, if not to the individual (ie, personalised health care), then at least to population subgroups (ie, precision medicine). This optimisation should involve tailoring health care to individual disease characteristics according to ethnicity, biology, behaviour, environment, and subjective person-level characteristics. The capacity and availability of local resources and infrastructures should also be considered. Evidence needed for equitable precision medicine cannot be generated without adequate data from all target populations, and the idea that research done in high-income countries will transfer adequately to low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) is problematic, as many migration studies and transethnic comparisons have shown. However, most data for precision medicine research are derived from people of European ancestry living in high-income countries. In this Series paper, we discuss the case for precision medicine for cardiometabolic diseases in LMICs, the barriers and enablers, and key considerations for implementation. We focus on three propositions: first, failure to explore and implement precision medicine for cardiometabolic disease in LMICs will enhance global health disparities. Second, some LMICs might already be placed to implement cardiometabolic precision medicine under appropriate circumstances, owing to progress made in treating infectious diseases. Third, improvements in population health from precision medicine are most probably asymptotic; the greatest gains are more likely to be obtained in countries where health-care systems are less developed. We outline key recommendations for implementation of precision medicine approaches in LMICs.
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