| 1. |
- Khalil, I., et al.
(författare)
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Transport injuries and deaths in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study
- 2018
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Ingår i: International Journal of Public Health. - : Springer International Publishing. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 187-198
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: Transport injuries (TI) are ranked as one of the leading causes of death, disability, and property loss worldwide. This paper provides an overview of the burden of TI in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by age and sex from 1990 to 2015. Methods: Transport injuries mortality in the EMR was estimated using the Global Burden of Disease mortality database, with corrections for ill-defined causes of death, using the cause of death ensemble modeling tool. Morbidity estimation was based on inpatient and outpatient datasets, 26 cause-of-injury and 47 nature-of-injury categories. Results: In 2015, 152,855 (95% uncertainty interval: 137,900–168,100) people died from TI in the EMR countries. Between 1990 and 2015, the years of life lost (YLL) rate per 100,000 due to TI decreased by 15.5%, while the years lived with disability (YLD) rate decreased by 10%, and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate decreased by 16%. Conclusions: Although the burden of TI mortality and morbidity decreased over the last two decades, there is still a considerable burden that needs to be addressed by increasing awareness, enforcing laws, and improving road conditions. © 2017, The Author(s).
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 5. |
- Dieleman, J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries
- 2017
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10083, s. 2005-2030
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to $24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and $195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential. © The Author(s).
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| 6. |
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| 7. |
- Garcia-Benito, R., et al.
(författare)
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CALIFA, the Calar Alto Legacy Integral Field Area survey III. Second public data release
- 2015
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 576:A135
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper describes the Second Public Data Release (DR2) of the Calar Alto Legacy Integral Field Area (CALIFA) survey. The data for 200 objects are made public, including the 100 galaxies of the First Public Data Release (DR1). Data were obtained with the integral-field spectrograph PMAS /PPak mounted on the 3.5 m telescope at the Calar Alto observatory. Two different spectral setups are available for each galaxy, (i) a low-resolution V500 setup covering the wavelength range 3745-7500 angstrom with a spectral resolution of 6.0 angstrom (FWHM); and (ii) a medium-resolution V1200 setup covering the wavelength range 3650-4840 angstrom with a spectral resolution of 2.3 angstrom (FWHM). The sample covers a redshift range between 0.005 and 0.03, with a wide range of properties in the color-magnitude diagram, stellar mass, ionization conditions, and morphological types. All the cubes in the data release were reduced with the latest pipeline, which includes improved spectrophotometric calibration, spatial registration, and spatial resolution. The spectrophotometric calibration is better than 6% and the median spatial resolution is 2 4. In total, the second data release contains over 1.5 million spectra.
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| 8. |
- Galbany, L., et al.
(författare)
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PISCO: The PMAS/PPak Integral-field Supernova Hosts Compilation
- 2018
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : IOP PUBLISHING LTD. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 855:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the PMAS/PPak Integral-field Supernova hosts COmpilation (PISCO), which comprises integral field spectroscopy (IFS) of 232 supernova (SN) host galaxies that hosted 272 SNe, observed over several semesters with the 3.5 m telescope at the Calar Alto Observatory (CAHA). PISCO is the largest collection of SN host galaxies observed with wide-field IFS, totaling 466,347 individual spectra covering a typical spatial resolution of similar to 380 pc. Focused studies regarding specific SN Ia-related topics will be published elsewhere; this paper aims to present the properties of the SN environments, using stellar population (SP) synthesis, and the gas-phase interstellar medium, providing additional results separating stripped-envelope SNe into their subtypes. With 11,270 H ii regions detected in all galaxies, we present for the first time a statistical analysis of H ii regions, which puts H ii regions that have hosted SNe in context with all other star-forming clumps within their galaxies. SNe Ic are associated with environments that are more metal-rich and have higher EW(H alpha) and higher star formation rate within their host galaxies than the mean of all H ii regions detected within each host. This in contrast to SNe IIb, which occur in environments that are very different compared to other core-collapse SNe types. We find two clear components of young and old SPs at SNe IIn locations. We find that SNe II fast decliners tend to explode at locations where the Sigma(SFR) is more intense. Finally, we outline how a future dedicated IFS survey of galaxies in parallel to an untargeted SN search would overcome the biases in current environmental studies.
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| 9. |
- Rousseau-Nepton, L., et al.
(författare)
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SIGNALS : I. Survey description
- 2019
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Ingår i: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 489:4, s. 5530-5546
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- SIGNALS, the Star formation, Ionized Gas, and Nebular Abundances Legacy Survey, is a large observing programme designed to investigate massive star formation and HII regions in a sample of local extended galaxies. The programme will use the imaging Fourier transform spectrograph SITELLE at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. Over 355 h (54.7 nights) have been allocated beginning in fall 2018 for eight consecutive semesters. Once completed, SIGNALS will provide a statistically reliable laboratory to investigate massive star formation, including over 50 000 resolved HII regions: the largest, most complete, and homogeneous data base of spectroscopically and spatially resolved extragalactic HII regions ever assembled. For each field observed, three datacubes covering the spectral bands of the filters SN1 (363386 nm), SN2 (482-513 nm), and SN3 (647-685 nm) are gathered. The spectral resolution selected for each spectral band is 1000, 1000, and 5000, respectively. As defined, the project sample will facilitate the study of small-scale nebular physics and many other phenomena linked to star formation at a mean spatial resolution of similar to 20 pc. This survey also has considerable legacy value for additional topics, including planetary nebulae, diffuse ionized gas, and supernova remnants. The purpose of this paper is to present a general outlook of the survey, notably the observing strategy, galaxy sample, and science requirements.
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| 10. |
- Sanchez-Menguiano, L., et al.
(författare)
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Shape of the oxygen abundance profiles in CALIFA face-on spiral galaxies
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP SCIENCES S A. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 587:A70
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We measured the gas abundance profiles in a sample of 122 face-on spiral galaxies observed by the CALIFA survey and included all spaxels whose line emission was consistent with star formation. This type of analysis allowed us to improve the statistics with respect to previous studies, and to properly estimate the oxygen distribution across the entire disc to a distance of up to 3 4 disc effective radii (r(e)). We confirm the results obtained from classical H II region analysis. In addition to the general negative gradient, an outer flattening can be observed in the oxygen abundance radial profile. An inner drop is also found in some cases. There is a common abundance gradient between 0.5 and 2.0 r(e) of alpha(O/H) = -0.075 dex/r(e) with a scatter of sigma = 0.016 dex/r(e) when normalising the distances to the disc effective radius. By performing a set of Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, we determined that this slope is independent of other galaxy properties, such as morphology, absolute magnitude, and the presence or absence of bars. In particular, barred galaxies do not seem to display shallower gradients, as predicted by numerical simulations. Interestingly, we find that most of the galaxies in the sample with reliable oxygen abundance values beyond similar to 2 effective radii (57 galaxies) present a flattening of the abundance gradient in these outer regions. This flattening is not associated with any morphological feature, which suggests that it is a common property of disc galaxies. Finally, we detect a drop or truncation of the abundance in the inner regions of 27 galaxies in the sample; this is only visible for the most massive galaxies.
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| 11. |
- Tadesse Abate, Molla, 1984-, et al.
(författare)
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Comparison of the photochromic behaviour of dyes in solution and on polyester fabric applied by supercritical carbon dioxide
- 2019
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Photochromic textiles are of considerable interest for smart and functional textile applications due to their remarkable dynamic colour changing effect when irradiated with light of a certain wavelength. The use of resource efficient processes, such as digital inkjet printing and supercritical carbon dioxide (scCO2) dyeing techniques enables an economic production of those high-end functional products with high material costs. In this study, photochromic polyester fabric has been prepared by applying two commercially important photochromic dyes from spirooxazine (SO) and naphthopyran (NP) dye classes using scCO2-dyeing technique. The properties of scCO2 dyed photochromic fabrics were compared with the properties of the same dyes in a non-polar solvent, hexane. UV-Vis spectroscopy and a specially designed online colour measurement system capable of simultaneous UV irradiation and colour measurement were used to evaluate the photochromic colour behaviour. Both photochromic dye types embedded in textile as well as in solution showed significant reversible colour changing properties when exposed to UV light and revert to their original non-coloured form when the UV light is removed. The scCO2 dyed polyester fabrics exhibited similar trends of colour build-up as in solution, while contrasting behaviour was observed in terms of colour changing rates compared to their behaviour in solution.
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