| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Sampson, Joshua N., et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of Heritability and Shared Heritability Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies for 13 Cancer Types
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 107:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, h(l)(2), on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (rho = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (rho = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (rho = 0.51, SE = 0.18), and bladder and lung (rho = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.
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| 3. |
- Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
- 2016
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Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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| 4. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 5. |
- Bentham, James, et al.
(författare)
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A century of trends in adult human height
- 2016
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5–22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3– 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8– 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
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| 6. |
- Bixby, H., et al.
(författare)
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Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults
- 2019
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 569:7755, s. 260-4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities(.)(1,2) This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity(3-6). Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55% of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017-and more than 80% in some low- and middle-income regions-was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing-and in some countries reversal-of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories.
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| 7. |
- Björkman, Anne, 1981, et al.
(författare)
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Tundra Trait Team: A database of plant traits spanning the tundra biome
- 2018
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Ingår i: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 27:12, s. 1402-1411
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2018 The Authors Global Ecology and Biogeography Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd Motivation: The Tundra Trait Team (TTT) database includes field-based measurements of key traits related to plant form and function at multiple sites across the tundra biome. This dataset can be used to address theoretical questions about plant strategy and trade-offs, trait–environment relationships and environmental filtering, and trait variation across spatial scales, to validate satellite data, and to inform Earth system model parameters. Main types of variable contained: The database contains 91,970 measurements of 18 plant traits. The most frequently measured traits (>1,000 observations each) include plant height, leaf area, specific leaf area, leaf fresh and dry mass, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen, carbon and phosphorus content, leaf C:N and N:P, seed mass, and stem specific density. Spatial location and grain: Measurements were collected in tundra habitats in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, including Arctic sites in Alaska, Canada, Greenland, Fennoscandia and Siberia, alpine sites in the European Alps, Colorado Rockies, Caucasus, Ural Mountains, Pyrenees, Australian Alps, and Central Otago Mountains (New Zealand), and sub-Antarctic Marion Island. More than 99% of observations are georeferenced. Time period and grain: All data were collected between 1964 and 2018. A small number of sites have repeated trait measurements at two or more time periods. Major taxa and level of measurement: Trait measurements were made on 978 terrestrial vascular plant species growing in tundra habitats. Most observations are on individuals (86%), while the remainder represent plot or site means or maximums per species. Software format: csv file and GitHub repository with data cleaning scripts in R; contribution to TRY plant trait database (www.try-db.org) to be included in the next version release.
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| 8. |
- Boyd, Roslyn N., et al.
(författare)
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REACH : study protocol of a randomised trial of rehabilitation very early in congenital hemiplegia
- 2017
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Ingår i: BMJ Open. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2044-6055. ; 7:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: Congenital hemiplegia is the most common form of cerebral palsy (CP). Children with unilateral CP show signs of upper limb asymmetry by 8 months corrected age (ca) but are frequently not referred to therapy until after 12 months ca. This study compares the efficacy of infant-friendly modified constraint-induced movement therapy (Baby mCIMT) to infant friendly bimanual therapy (Baby BIM) on upper limb, cognitive and neuroplasticity outcomes in a multisite randomised comparison trial.METHODS AND ANALYSIS: 150 infants (75 in each group), aged between 3 and 6 months ca, with asymmetric brain injury and clinical signs of upper extremity asymmetry will be recruited. Children will be randomised centrally to receive equal doses of either Baby mCIMT or Baby BIM. Baby mCIMT comprises restraint of the unimpaired hand using a simple restraint (eg, glove, sock), combined with intensive parent implemented practice focusing on active use of the impaired hand in a play-based context. In contrast, Baby BIM promotes active play requiring both hands in a play-based context. Both interventions will be delivered by parents at home with monthly home visits and interim telecommunication support by study therapists. Assessments will be conducted at study entry; at 6, 12 months ca immediately postintervention (primary outcome) and 24 months ca (retention). The primary outcome will be the Mini-Assisting Hand Assessment. Secondary outcomes include the Bayley Scale for Infant and Toddler Development (cognitive and motor domains) and the Hand Assessment of Infants. A subset of children will undertake MRI scans at 24 months ca to evaluate brain lesion severity and brain (re)organisation after intervention.ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Full ethical approvals for this study have been obtained from the relevant sites. The findings will be disseminated in peer-reviewed publications.TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry: ACTRN12615000180516, Pre results.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Kahn, Nicolas, et al.
(författare)
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Early Career Members at the ERS International Congress 2017 : highlights from the Assemblies.
- 2017
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Ingår i: Breathe. - : European Respiratory Society (ERS). - 1810-6838 .- 2073-4735. ; 13:4, s. e121-e129
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The 2017 ERS International Congress was, as always, well organised, providing participants with a good mixture of translational and clinical science. Early career members were very well represented in thematic poster, poster discussion and oral presentation sessions and were also actively involved in chairing sessions. The efforts of the Early Career Members Committee (ECMC) to increase the number of early career members included in the competence list (the list of early career members with an interest in being more actively involved in the society) paid off immensely, because the number of early career members registered improved hugely across all assemblies after the Congress. Several newly registered early career members have collated some highlights of the Congress for their assemblies, which should be of interest to all members. As assemblies 12 and 13 are new, there is no report from assembly 12 as there is not yet, at the time of writing, an early career member representative for this newly created assembly.
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| 11. |
- Kumar, Abhinav, et al.
(författare)
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Enrichment of immunoregulatory proteins in the biomolecular corona of nanoparticles within human respiratory tract lining fluid
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nanomedicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 1549-9634 .- 1549-9642. ; 12:4, s. 1033-1043
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- When inhaled nanoparticles deposit in the lungs, they transit through respiratory tract lining fluid (RTLF) acquiring a biomolecular corona reflecting the interaction of the RTLF with the nanomaterial surface. Label-free snapshot proteomics was used to generate semiquantitative profiles of corona proteins formed around silica (SiO2) and poly(vinyl) acetate (PVAc) nanoparticles in RTLF, the latter employed as an archetype drug delivery vehicle. The evolved PVAc corona was significantly enriched compared to that observed on SiO2 nanoparticles (698 vs. 429 proteins identified); however both coronas contained a substantial contribution from innate immunity proteins, including surfactant protein A, napsin A and complement (C1q and C3) proteins. Functional protein classification supports the hypothesis that corona formation in RTLF constitutes opsonisation, preparing particles for phagocytosis and clearance from the lungs. These data highlight how an understanding of the evolved corona is necessary for the design of inhaled nanomedicines with acceptable safety and tailored clearance profiles. From the Clinical Editor: Inhaled nanoparticles often acquire a layer of protein corona while they go through the respiratory tract. Here, the authors investigated the identity of these proteins. The proper identification would improve the understanding of the use of inhaled nanoparticles in future therapeutics. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Inc.
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| 12. |
- Novak, Iona, et al.
(författare)
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Early, Accurate Diagnosis and Early Intervention in Cerebral Palsy : Advances in Diagnosis and Treatment
- 2017
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Ingår i: JAMA pediatrics. - : American Medical Association. - 2168-6203 .- 2168-6211. ; 171:9, s. 897-907
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: Cerebral palsy describes the most common physical disability in childhood and occurs in 1 in 500 live births. Historically, the diagnosis has been made between age 12 and 24 months but now can be made before 6 months' corrected age.Objectives: To systematically review best available evidence for early, accurate diagnosis of cerebral palsy and to summarize best available evidence about cerebral palsy-specific early intervention that should follow early diagnosis to optimize neuroplasticity and function.Evidence Review: This study systematically searched the literature about early diagnosis of cerebral palsy in MEDLINE (1956-2016), EMBASE (1980-2016), CINAHL (1983-2016), and the Cochrane Library (1988-2016) and by hand searching. Search terms included cerebral palsy, diagnosis, detection, prediction, identification, predictive validity, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The study included systematic reviews with or without meta-analyses, criteria of diagnostic accuracy, and evidence-based clinical guidelines. Findings are reported according to the PRISMA statement, and recommendations are reported according to the Appraisal of Guidelines, Research and Evaluation (AGREE) II instrument.Findings: Six systematic reviews and 2 evidence-based clinical guidelines met inclusion criteria. All included articles had high methodological Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) ratings. In infants, clinical signs and symptoms of cerebral palsy emerge and evolve before age 2 years; therefore, a combination of standardized tools should be used to predict risk in conjunction with clinical history. Before 5 months' corrected age, the most predictive tools for detecting risk are term-age magnetic resonance imaging (86%-89% sensitivity), the Prechtl Qualitative Assessment of General Movements (98% sensitivity), and the Hammersmith Infant Neurological Examination (90% sensitivity). After 5 months' corrected age, the most predictive tools for detecting risk are magnetic resonance imaging (86%-89% sensitivity) (where safe and feasible), the Hammersmith Infant Neurological Examination (90% sensitivity), and the Developmental Assessment of Young Children (83% C index). Topography and severity of cerebral palsy are more difficult to ascertain in infancy, and magnetic resonance imaging and the Hammersmith Infant Neurological Examination may be helpful in assisting clinical decisions. In high-income countries, 2 in 3 individuals with cerebral palsy will walk, 3 in 4 will talk, and 1 in 2 will have normal intelligence.Conclusions and Relevance: Early diagnosis begins with a medical history and involves using neuroimaging, standardized neurological, and standardized motor assessments that indicate congruent abnormal findings indicative of cerebral palsy. Clinicians should understand the importance of prompt referral to diagnostic-specific early intervention to optimize infant motor and cognitive plasticity, prevent secondary complications, and enhance caregiver well-being.
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| 13. |
- Siverbo, Sven, 1970-, et al.
(författare)
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#metoo-management
- 2018
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Bok (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- För ett drygt år sedan inleddes #metoo-rörelsen, vilken påminner oss om att det finns brister i samhället även om allt ser bra ut på ytan. Mycket talar för att #metoo inte är en övergående fluga. Det handlar inte om en samordnad aktion med ett tydligt mål och det finns heller ingen ledare för rörelsen. #metoo är en självorganiserad rörelse, ett sätt att synliggöra det som under snart sagt hela mänsklighetens historia har förtigits, förnekats och bagatelliserats trots att alla har vetat. Den här rapporten belyser #metoo-rörelsens inverkan på organisationer ur ett managementperspektiv. Vi är intresserade av fenomenet #metoo-management, vilket vi definierar som organisationers arbete med att förebygga och hantera sexuella trakasserier som en följd av #metoo-rörelsen. Det första syftet med rapporten är att ta reda på om #metoo-management förekommer. Det andra syftet är att utforska hur organisationer arbetar med #metoo-management. Det tredje syftet är att förklara varför organisationer väljer att arbeta med #metoo- management på olika sätt. Baserat på intervjuer med företrädare för tio organisationer – i flera fall väldigt olika – har vi konstaterat att #metoo-rörelsen har gett upphov till #metoo- management. Mer precist handlar #metoo-management om flera olika åtgärder och aktiviteter. Organisationer har återupprepat och preciserat sina programförklaringar mot sexuella trakasserier. Programmen har fått förnyad spridning på arbetsplatserna och ytterligare åtgärder för programefterlevnad har vidtagits. Procedurer för klagomålshantering har utvecklats, utbildningar har initierats och riskfaktorer har identifierats och reducerats. Inte minst har förekomsten av problem med sexuella trakasserier inventerats. Något överraskande kunde vi notera att det inte fanns något exempel på att programmen mot sexuella trakasserier utvärderades och att det saknades planer för att minska beroendeförhållanden mellan chefer och anställda i de organisationer där dessa var betydande. Det är viktigt att betona att det finns betydande skillnader mellan organisationer i hur intensivt arbetet med #metoo-management har bedrivits. Skillnaderna förefaller bero på flera olika faktorer. En är att incidensen av sexuella trakasserier är olika och en annan att organisationer gör olika bedömningar av hur stor skada uppdagade fall skulle göra på arbetsgivarvarumärket. Ytterligare förklaringar till intensiteten i arbetet är skillnader i hur ambitiöst arbetet har varit innan #metoo- rörelsen och att det i vissa organisationer finns större kunskaper om riskfaktorer än i andra. Slutligen förefaller organisationens storlek och synlighet spela roll genom att de är mer påpassade och därför har större anledning att undvika problem som väcker negativ uppmärksamhet
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| 14. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 15. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 16. |
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| 17. |
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| 18. |
- Zhou, Bin, et al.
(författare)
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Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: A pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10027, s. 1513-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are aff ecting the number of adults with diabetes.Methods: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue.Findings: We used data from 751 studies including 4372000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-17.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target.Interpretation: Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults aff ected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries.
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