| 1. |
- Blunden, Jessica, et al.
(författare)
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State of the Climate in 2012
- 2013
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Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 94:8, s. S1-S258
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- For the first time in serveral years, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation did not dominate regional climate conditions around the globe. A weak La Ni a dissipated to ENSOneutral conditions by spring, and while El Nino appeared to be emerging during summer, this phase never fully developed as sea surface temperatures in the eastern conditions. Nevertheless, other large-scale climate patterns and extreme weather events impacted various regions during the year. A negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation from mid-January to early February contributed to frigid conditions in parts of northern Africa, eastern Europe, and western Asia. A lack of rain during the 2012 wet season led to the worst drought in at least the past three decades for northeastern Brazil. Central North America also experienced one of its most severe droughts on record. The Caribbean observed a very wet dry season and it was the Sahel's wettest rainy season in 50 years. Overall, the 2012 average temperature across global land and ocean surfaces ranked among the 10 warmest years on record. The global land surface temperature alone was also among the 10 warmest on record. In the upper atmosphere, the average stratospheric temperature was record or near-record cold, depending on the dataset. After a 30-year warming trend from 1970 to 1999 for global sea surface temperatures, the period 2000-12 had little further trend. This may be linked to the prevalence of La Ni a-like conditions during the 21st century. Heat content in the upper 700 m of the ocean remained near record high levels in 2012. Net increases from 2011 to 2012 were observed at 700-m to 2000-m depth and even in the abyssal ocean below. Following sharp decreases in to the effects of La Ni a, sea levels rebounded to reach records highs in 2012. The increased hydrological cycle seen in recent years continued, with more evaporation in drier locations and more precipitation in rainy areas. In a pattern that has held since 2004, salty areas of the ocean surfaces and subsurfaces were anomalously salty on average, while fresher areas were anomalously fresh. Global tropical cyclone activity during 2012 was near average, with a total of 84 storms compared with the 1981-2010 average of 89. Similar to 2010 and 2011, the North Atlantic was the only hurricane basin that experienced above-normal activity. In this basin, Sandy brought devastation to Cuba and parts of the eastern North American seaboard. All other basins experienced either near-or below-normal tropical cyclone activity. Only three tropical cyclones reached Category 5 intensity-all in Bopha became the only storm in the historical record to produce winds greater than 130 kt south of 7 N. It was also the costliest storm to affect the Philippines and killed more than 1000 residents. Minimum Arctic sea ice extent in September and Northern Hemisphere snow cover extent in June both reached new record lows. June snow cover extent is now declining at a faster rate (-17.6% per decade) than September sea ice extent (-13.0% per decade). Permafrost temperatures reached record high values in northernmost Alaska. A new melt extent record occurred on 11-12 July on the Greenland ice sheet; 97% of the ice sheet showed some form of melt, four times greater than the average melt for this time of year. The climate in Antarctica was relatively stable overall. The largest maximum sea ice extent since records begain in 1978 was observed in September 2012. In the stratosphere, warm air led to the second smallest ozone hole in the past two decades. Even so, the springtime ozone layer above Antarctica likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2060. Following a slight decline associated with the global 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production reached a record 9.5 +/- 0.5 Pg C in 2011 and a new record of 9.7 +/- 0.5 Pg C is estimated for 2012. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations increased by 2.1 ppm in 2012, to 392.6 ppm. In spring 2012, 2 concentration exceeded 400 ppm at 7 of the 13 Arctic observation sites. Globally, other greenhouse gases including methane and nitrous oxide also continued to rise in concentration and the combined effect now represents a 32% increase in radiative forcing over a 1990 baseline. Concentrations of most ozone depleting substances continued to fall.
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| 2. |
- Klionsky, Daniel J., et al.
(författare)
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Guidelines for the use and interpretation of assays for monitoring autophagy
- 2012
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Ingår i: Autophagy. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1554-8635 .- 1554-8627. ; 8:4, s. 445-544
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2008 we published the first set of guidelines for standardizing research in autophagy. Since then, research on this topic has continued to accelerate, and many new scientists have entered the field. Our knowledge base and relevant new technologies have also been expanding. Accordingly, it is important to update these guidelines for monitoring autophagy in different organisms. Various reviews have described the range of assays that have been used for this purpose. Nevertheless, there continues to be confusion regarding acceptable methods to measure autophagy, especially in multicellular eukaryotes. A key point that needs to be emphasized is that there is a difference between measurements that monitor the numbers or volume of autophagic elements (e.g., autophagosomes or autolysosomes) at any stage of the autophagic process vs. those that measure flux through the autophagy pathway (i.e., the complete process); thus, a block in macroautophagy that results in autophagosome accumulation needs to be differentiated from stimuli that result in increased autophagic activity, defined as increased autophagy induction coupled with increased delivery to, and degradation within, lysosomes (in most higher eukaryotes and some protists such as Dictyostelium) or the vacuole (in plants and fungi). In other words, it is especially important that investigators new to the field understand that the appearance of more autophagosomes does not necessarily equate with more autophagy. In fact, in many cases, autophagosomes accumulate because of a block in trafficking to lysosomes without a concomitant change in autophagosome biogenesis, whereas an increase in autolysosomes may reflect a reduction in degradative activity. Here, we present a set of guidelines for the selection and interpretation of methods for use by investigators who aim to examine macroautophagy and related processes, as well as for reviewers who need to provide realistic and reasonable critiques of papers that are focused on these processes. These guidelines are not meant to be a formulaic set of rules, because the appropriate assays depend in part on the question being asked and the system being used. In addition, we emphasize that no individual assay is guaranteed to be the most appropriate one in every situation, and we strongly recommend the use of multiple assays to monitor autophagy. In these guidelines, we consider these various methods of assessing autophagy and what information can, or cannot, be obtained from them. Finally, by discussing the merits and limits of particular autophagy assays, we hope to encourage technical innovation in the field.
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| 3. |
- Thompson, Paul M., et al.
(författare)
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The ENIGMA Consortium : large-scale collaborative analyses of neuroimaging and genetic data
- 2014
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Ingår i: BRAIN IMAGING BEHAV. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1931-7557 .- 1931-7565. ; 8:2, s. 153-182
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Enhancing NeuroImaging Genetics through Meta-Analysis (ENIGMA) Consortium is a collaborative network of researchers working together on a range of large-scale studies that integrate data from 70 institutions worldwide. Organized into Working Groups that tackle questions in neuroscience, genetics, and medicine, ENIGMA studies have analyzed neuroimaging data from over 12,826 subjects. In addition, data from 12,171 individuals were provided by the CHARGE consortium for replication of findings, in a total of 24,997 subjects. By meta-analyzing results from many sites, ENIGMA has detected factors that affect the brain that no individual site could detect on its own, and that require larger numbers of subjects than any individual neuroimaging study has currently collected. ENIGMA's first project was a genome-wide association study identifying common variants in the genome associated with hippocampal volume or intracranial volume. Continuing work is exploring genetic associations with subcortical volumes (ENIGMA2) and white matter microstructure (ENIGMA-DTI). Working groups also focus on understanding how schizophrenia, bipolar illness, major depression and attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) affect the brain. We review the current progress of the ENIGMA Consortium, along with challenges and unexpected discoveries made on the way.
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| 4. |
- Arridge, Christopher S., et al.
(författare)
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Uranus Pathfinder : exploring the origins and evolution of Ice Giant planets
- 2012
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Ingår i: Experimental astronomy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0922-6435 .- 1572-9508. ; 33:2-3, s. 753-791
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The "Ice Giants" Uranus and Neptune are a different class of planet compared to Jupiter and Saturn. Studying these objects is important for furthering our understanding of the formation and evolution of the planets, and unravelling the fundamental physical and chemical processes in the Solar System. The importance of filling these gaps in our knowledge of the Solar System is particularly acute when trying to apply our understanding to the numerous planetary systems that have been discovered around other stars. The Uranus Pathfinder (UP) mission thus represents the quintessential aspects of the objectives of the European planetary community as expressed in ESA's Cosmic Vision 2015-2025. UP was proposed to the European Space Agency's M3 call for medium-class missions in 2010 and proposed to be the first orbiter of an Ice Giant planet. As the most accessible Ice Giant within the M-class mission envelope Uranus was identified as the mission target. Although not selected for this call the UP mission concept provides a baseline framework for the exploration of Uranus with existing low-cost platforms and underlines the need to develop power sources suitable for the outer Solar System. The UP science case is based around exploring the origins, evolution, and processes at work in Ice Giant planetary systems. Three broad themes were identified: (1) Uranus as an Ice Giant, (2) An Ice Giant planetary system, and (3) An asymmetric magnetosphere. Due to the long interplanetary transfer from Earth to Uranus a significant cruise-phase science theme was also developed. The UP mission concept calls for the use of a Mars Express/Rosetta-type platform to launch on a Soyuz-Fregat in 2021 and entering into an eccentric polar orbit around Uranus in the 2036-2037 timeframe. The science payload has a strong heritage in Europe and beyond and requires no significant technology developments.
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| 5. |
- Do, Ron, et al.
(författare)
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Common variants associated with plasma triglycerides and risk for coronary artery disease
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 45:11, s. 1345-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Triglycerides are transported in plasma by specific triglyceride-rich lipoproteins; in epidemiological studies, increased triglyceride levels correlate with higher risk for coronary artery disease (CAD). However, it is unclear whether this association reflects causal processes. We used 185 common variants recently mapped for plasma lipids (P < 5 x 10(-8) for each) to examine the role of triglycerides in risk for CAD. First, we highlight loci associated with both low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglyceride levels, and we show that the direction and magnitude of the associations with both traits are factors in determining CAD risk. Second, we consider loci with only a strong association with triglycerides and show that these loci are also associated with CAD. Finally, in a model accounting for effects on LDL-C and/or high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels, the strength of a polymorphism's effect on triglyceride levels is correlated with the magnitude of its effect on CAD risk. These results suggest that triglyceride-rich lipoproteins causally influence risk for CAD.
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| 6. |
- Koettgen, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association analyses identify 18 new loci associated with serum urate concentrations
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 45:2, s. 145-154
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Elevated serum urate concentrations can cause gout, a prevalent and painful inflammatory arthritis. By combining data from >140,000 individuals of European ancestry within the Global Urate Genetics Consortium (GUGC), we identified and replicated 28 genome-wide significant loci in association with serum urate concentrations (18 new regions in or near TRIM46, INHBB, SEMBT1, TMEM171, VEGFA, BAZ1B, PRKAG2, STC1, HNF4G, A1CF, ATXN2, UBE2Q2, IGF1R, NFAT5, MAF, HLF, ACVR1B-ACVRL1 and B3GNT4). Associations for many of the loci were of similar magnitude in individuals of non-European ancestry. We further characterized these loci for associations with gout, transcript expression and the fractional excretion of urate. Network analyses implicate the inhibins-activins signaling pathways and glucose metabolism in systemic urate control. New candidate genes for serum urate concentration highlight the importance of metabolic control of urate production and excretion, which may have implications for the treatment and prevention of gout.
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| 7. |
- Tyndall, Anthony J., et al.
(författare)
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Causes and risk factors for death in systemic sclerosis: a study from the EULAR Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) database
- 2010
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Ingår i: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 1468-2060 .- 0003-4967. ; 69:10, s. 1809-1815
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives To determine the causes and predictors of mortality in systemic sclerosis (SSc). Methods Patients with SSc (n=5860) fulfilling the American College of Rheumatology criteria and prospectively followed in the EULAR Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort were analysed. EUSTAR centres completed a structured questionnaire on cause of death and comorbidities. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyse survival in SSc subgroups and to identify predictors of mortality. Results Questionnaires were obtained on 234 of 284 fatalities. 55% of deaths were attributed directly to SSc and 41% to non-SSc causes; in 4% the cause of death was not assigned. Of the SSc-related deaths, 35% were attributed to pulmonary fibrosis, 26% to pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and 26% to cardiac causes (mainly heart failure and arrhythmias). Among the non-SSc-related causes, infections (33%) and malignancies (31%) were followed by cardiovascular causes (29%). Of the non-SSc-related fatalities, 25% died of causes in which SSc-related complications may have participated (pneumonia, sepsis and gastrointestinal haemorrhage). Independent risk factors for mortality and their HR were: proteinuria (HR 3.34), the presence of PAH based on echocardiography (HR 2.02), pulmonary restriction (forced vital capacity below 80% of normal, HR 1.64), dyspnoea above New York Heart Association class II (HR 1.61), diffusing capacity of the lung (HR 1.20 per 10% decrease), patient age at onset of Raynaud's phenomenon (HR 1.30 per 10 years) and the modified Rodnan skin score (HR 1.20 per 10 score points). Conclusion Disease-related causes, in particular pulmonary fibrosis, PAH and cardiac causes, accounted for the majority of deaths in SSc.
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| 8. |
- Willer, Cristen J., et al.
(författare)
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Discovery and refinement of loci associated with lipid levels
- 2013
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 45:11, s. 1274-1283
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Levels of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides and total cholesterol are heritable, modifiable risk factors for coronary artery disease. To identify new loci and refine known loci influencing these lipids, we examined 188,577 individuals using genome-wide and custom genotyping arrays. We identify and annotate 157 loci associated with lipid levels at P < 5 x 10(-8), including 62 loci not previously associated with lipid levels in humans. Using dense genotyping in individuals of European, East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry, we narrow association signals in 12 loci. We find that loci associated with blood lipid levels are often associated with cardiovascular and metabolic traits, including coronary artery disease, type 2 diabetes, blood pressure, waist-hip ratio and body mass index. Our results demonstrate the value of using genetic data from individuals of diverse ancestry and provide insights into the biological mechanisms regulating blood lipids to guide future genetic, biological and therapeutic research.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Bellenguez, Celine, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study identifies a variant in HDAC9 associated with large vessel ischemic stroke
- 2012
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 44:3, s. 141-328
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Genetic factors have been implicated in stroke risk, but few replicated associations have been reported. We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for ischemic stroke and its subtypes in 3,548 affected individuals and 5,972 controls, all of European ancestry. Replication of potential signals was performed in 5,859 affected individuals and 6,281 controls. We replicated previous associations for cardioembolic stroke near PITX2 and ZFHX3 and for large vessel stroke at a 9p21 locus. We identified a new association for large vessel stroke within HDAC9 (encoding histone deacetylase 9) on chromosome 7p21.1 (including further replication in an additional 735 affected individuals and 28,583 controls) (rs11984041; combined P = 1.87 x 10(-11); odds ratio (OR) = 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.28-1.57). All four loci exhibited evidence for heterogeneity of effect across the stroke subtypes, with some and possibly all affecting risk for only one subtype. This suggests distinct genetic architectures for different stroke subtypes.
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| 11. |
- Davies, Kerrie A., et al.
(författare)
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Underdiagnosis of Clostridium difficile across Europe : the European, multicentre, prospective, biannual, point-prevalence study of Clostridium difficile infection in hospitalised patients with diarrhoea (EUCLID)
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet - Infectious diseases. - : Elsevier. - 1473-3099 .- 1474-4457. ; 14:12, s. 1208-1219
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Variations in testing for Clostridium difficile infection can hinder patients' care, increase the risk of transmission, and skew epidemiological data. We aimed to measure the underdiagnosis of C difficile infection across Europe.Methods: We did a questionnaire-based study at 482 participating hospitals across 20 European countries. Hospitals were questioned about their methods and testing policy for C difficile infection during the periods September, 2011, to August, 2012, and September, 2012, to August, 2013. On one day in winter, 2012-13 (December, 2012, or January, 2013), and summer, 2013 (July or August), every hospital sent all diarrhoeal samples submitted to their microbiology laboratory to a national coordinating laboratory for standardised testing of C difficile infection. Our primary outcome measures were the rates of testing for and cases of C difficile infection per 10 000 patient bed-days. Results of local and national C difficile infection testing were compared with each other. If the result was positive at the national laboratory but negative at the local hospital, the result was classified as undiagnosed C difficile infection. We compared differences in proportions with the Mann-Whitney test, or McNemar's test if data were matched.Findings: During the study period, participating hospitals reported a mean of 65.8 tests (country range 4. 6-223.3) for C difficile infection per 10 000 patient-bed days and a mean of 7.0 cases (country range 0.7-28.7) of C difficile infection per 10 000 patient-bed days. Only two-fifths of hospitals reported using optimum methods for testing of C difficile infection (defined by European guidelines), although the number of participating hospitals using optimum methods increased during the study period, from 152 (32%) of 468 in 2011-12 to 205 (48%) of 428 in 2012-13. Across all 482 European hospitals on the two sampling days, 148 (23%) of 641 samples positive for C difficile infection (as determined by the national laboratory) were not diagnosed by participating hospitals because of an absence of clinical suspicion, equating to about 74 missed diagnoses per day.Interpretation: A wide variety of testing strategies for C difficile infection are used across Europe. Absence of clinical suspicion and suboptimum laboratory diagnostic methods mean that an estimated 40 000 inpatients with C difficile infection are potentially undiagnosed every year in 482 European hospitals.
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| 12. |
- Gretarsdottir, Solveig, et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study identifies a sequence variant within the DAB2IP gene conferring susceptibility to abdominal aortic aneurysm
- 2010
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 42:8, s. 71-692
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We performed a genome-wide association study on 1,292 individuals with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAAs) and 30,503 controls from Iceland and The Netherlands, with a follow-up of top markers in up to 3,267 individuals with AAAs and 7,451 controls. The A allele of rs7025486 on 9q33 was found to associate with AAA, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.21 and P = 4.6 x 10(-10). In tests for association with other vascular diseases, we found that rs7025486[A] is associated with early onset myocardial infarction (OR = 1.18, P = 3.1 x 10(-5)), peripheral arterial disease (OR = 1.14, P = 3.9 x 10(-5)) and pulmonary embolism (OR = 1.20, P = 0.00030), but not with intracranial aneurysm or ischemic stroke. No association was observed between rs7025486[A] and common risk factors for arterial and venous diseases-that is, smoking, lipid levels, obesity, type 2 diabetes and hypertension. Rs7025486 is located within DAB2IP, which encodes an inhibitor of cell growth and survival.
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| 13. |
- Michel, Steven F., et al.
(författare)
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Using the HCR-20 to Predict Aggressive Behavior among Men with Schizophrenia Living in the Community: Accuracy of Prediction, General and Forensic Settings, and Dynamic Risk Factors
- 2013
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Ingår i: International Journal of Forensic Mental Health. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1932-9903 .- 1499-9013. ; 12:1, s. 1-13
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The HCR-20 is widely used to assess risk of violence among patients with schizophrenia. Further understanding of the accuracy and changes over time in C and R scores is needed. Using prospectively collected data on 248 men with schizophrenia, the present study found that the HCR-20 significantly predicted aggressive behavior over 24 months. The H, C, R, HCR-20 total, and final risk judgment scores were unable to predict aggressive behavior better than chance among the general psychiatric patients in the first six months after discharge. Changes in three C items, the total R score, and in three R items significantly predicted changes in aggressive behavior.
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| 14. |
- Rhind, Nicholas, et al.
(författare)
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Comparative Functional Genomics of the Fission Yeasts
- 2011
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 332:6032, s. 930-936
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The fission yeast clade-comprising Schizosaccharomyces pombe, S. octosporus, S. cryophilus, and S. japonicus-occupies the basal branch of Ascomycete fungi and is an important model of eukaryote biology. A comparative annotation of these genomes identified a near extinction of transposons and the associated innovation of transposon-free centromeres. Expression analysis established that meiotic genes are subject to antisense transcription during vegetative growth, which suggests a mechanism for their tight regulation. In addition, trans-acting regulators control new genes within the context of expanded functional modules for meiosis and stress response. Differences in gene content and regulation also explain why, unlike the budding yeast of Saccharomycotina, fission yeasts cannot use ethanol as a primary carbon source. These analyses elucidate the genome structure and gene regulation of fission yeast and provide tools for investigation across the Schizosaccharomyces clade.
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| 15. |
- Usmani, Shariq M., et al.
(författare)
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Direct visualization of HIV-enhancing endogenous amyloid fibrils in human semen
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Nature Publishing Group: Nature Communications. - 2041-1723. ; 5, s. 3508-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Naturally occurring fragments of the abundant semen proteins prostatic acid phosphatase ( PAP) and semenogelins form amyloid fibrils in vitro. These fibrils boost HIV infection and may play a key role in the spread of the AIDS pandemic. However, the presence of amyloid fibrils in semen remained to be demonstrated. Here, we use state of the art confocal and electron microscopy techniques for direct imaging of amyloid fibrils in human ejaculates. We detect amyloid aggregates in all semen samples and find that they partially consist of PAP fragments, interact with HIV particles and increase viral infectivity. Our results establish semen as a body fluid that naturally contains amyloid fibrils that are exploited by HIV to promote its sexual transmission.
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| 16. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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