| 1. |
|
|
| 2. |
- Odenberger, Mikael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
-
Achieving 60 % CO2 reductions within the UK energy system - Implications for the electricity generation sector
- 2007
-
Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 35:4, s. 2433-2452
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper explores how investment in the UK electricity generation sector can contribute to the UK goal of reducing CO2 emissions with 60% by the year 2050 relative to the 1990 emissions. Considering likely development of the transportation sector and industry over the period, i.e. a continued demand growth and dependency on fossil fuels and electricity, the analysis shows that this implies CO2 emission reductions of up to 90% by 2050 for the electricity sector. Emphasis is put on limitations imposed by the present system, described by a detailed database of existing power plants, together with meeting targets on renewable electricity generation (RES) including assumptions on gas acting as backup technology for intermittent RES. In particular, it is investigated to what extent new fossil fuelled and nuclear power is required to meet the year 2050 demand as specified by the Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP). In addition, the number of sites required for centralized electricity generation (large power plants) is compared with the present number of sites. A simulation model was developed for the analysis. The model applies the UK national targets on RES, taken from Renewable Obligation (RO) for 2010 and 2020 and potentials given by RCEP for 2050, and assumed technical lifetimes of the power plants of the existing system and thus, links this system with targets for the years 2010, 2020 and 2050.The results illustrate the problem with lock-in effects due to long capital stock turnover times, which can either lead to political difficulty meeting targets in established policy or costly early retirement of power plants (stranded assets) to comply with emission goals prescribed in Kyoto targets or the 60% emission reduction goal. Assuming typical technical lifetimes of the power plants it can be concluded that the present electricity generation system continues to play a significant role for several decades generating about 50% of projected electricity demand in 2025. In addition, the results show that although the high degree of fuel switch from coal to natural gas which has taken place in the UK over the last decade (which seems to continue) which enables the UK to fulfill the Kyoto target, the resulting dependency on gas gives a more or less constant level of CO2 emissions between 2010 and 2020. Hence, meeting stricter abatement targets in a second Kyoto period requires emission reductions in other sectors or penetration levels of RES faster than prescribed in the RO.
|
|
| 3. |
|
|
| 4. |
- Odenberger, Mikael, 1977
(författare)
-
Pathways for the European electricity supply system to 2050 – Implications of stringent CO2 reductions
- 2009
-
Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis, which consists of four separate papers, investigates possible pathways forthe European electricity supply systems to meet stringent CO2 emission reductions.Assessments are made for single EU member states, selected regions and the EU as awhole. The analyses are based on modelling scenarios with the aid of a technoeconomicmodel developed during the thesis work. This model has the objective offinding cost-efficient investment strategies within the electricity supply system untilmid-century (2050). Special emphasis is put on the transition from the present systemto a system which meets stringent CO2 reduction targets, considering timing of newinvestments and technology choices. Thus, the existing capital stock (power plants)is included in the model through application of a detailed database, the Chalmersenergy infrastructure database, providing information (e.g. fuel type, capacity andage structure) on present and planned power plants down to block level for Europeanpower plants. Assuming technical lifetimes for power plants in the database givesresidual capacities remaining over the period studied, which together with newinvestments meet projected electricity demand. New investment options are limitedto presently known technologies and aggregated into technology classes (e.g. hardcoal condensing power and onshore wind power). European analyses includeassessments of fully integrated markets for electricity, CO2 emission allowances anda joint European effort to meet the targets for renewables.The results indicate that technology options at hand and efficiency measures can helpto reduce CO2 emissions from European electricity supply substantially. The studiespresented here assume emission reductions within the electricity sector of up to 85%by 2050, compared to 1990 emission levels. To meet these goals, however,significant changes are required in the current infrastructures of the electricity-supplysystem. The challenge is not due to a lack in technologies – these are available atcosts which should not be prohibitive for society and which, indeed, are expectedfrom the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) – but due to the large investmentramp-up required and to fuel-market implications as well as the institutional andlogistic challenges (permitting procedures, establishing CO2 transportation systems,finding sites for wind power etc). Key measures included in this research are CarbonCapture and Storage (CCS) and large-scale employment of renewables in electricitygeneration. In addition, it can be seen that efficiency measures to reduce electricitydemand are of great importance to reduce the strain in capacity ramp-up of CCS andrenewables. Common targets on CO2 emission reductions point to differentiatedstrategy between member states. Thus, regions which currently have high carbonintensity and are located near suitable storage sites will benefit most from CCSimplementation, whereas other regions have large potential for renewable electricitygeneration (e.g. coastal areas with high expectations in annual average load hours forwind power). Finally, this study has presupposed that emission targets must be met.The focus has been on how to meet the targets and what implications we may expectfrom different technological choices that are at hand in order to meet these targets.However, it is also clear in this analysis that the investigated technological transitionswill not come about automatically. Additional policy measures will be necessary.The EU-ETS, as we know it today, is merely a beginning.
|
|
| 5. |
- Odenberger, Mikael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
-
Pathways for the North European electricity supply
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Energy Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0301-4215. ; 37:5, s. 1660-1677
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates the development of the electricity-supply systems in Northern Europe(Germany, UK, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway) until the year 2050. The focus is onthe response to an assumed common stringent CO2-reduction target and on the role of carbon captureand storage technologies (CCS). Special emphasis is put on turn-over in capital stock, timingof investments and the infrastructural implications of large-scale introduction of CCS. The analysis iscarried out through scenario analysis with the aid of a techno-economic model, in which a caseincluding CCS is compared to a case excluding this option. The phase out of the present capitalstock (power plants) is included from the Chalmers energy infrastructure databases, which givesinformation on present and planned power plants down to block level for plants exceeding 10MW netelectric power. Assuming technical lifetimes for these plants yield residual capacities in each year, herereferred to as the phase-out pattern. CCS technologies are assumed to become commercially availablein 2020.The age structure of the power plants indicate that full turn-over in capital stock will take severaldecades with the present generation capacities accounting for around 50% of generated electricity in2020. The results show that CO2 emission reductions of 20% and 60% by the years 2020 and 2050,respectively, relative to 1990, can be met at a marginal cost of abatement of about 25–40 h/ton CO2 overthe period studied if CCS is included as an option from 2020. At the same time the marginal cost ofgenerating electricity lies in the range 45–60 h/MWh. Excluding CCS raises the marginal cost ofabatement with about 10 h/ton CO2, whereas the marginal cost of electricity generation increases withroughly 5–10 h/MWh. The CO2 target by the year 2020 is met by implementation of renewableelectricity and fuel shifting from coal to gas. After 2020 CCS technologies constitute an attractive wayfor cost efficient and almost CO2-free base load. However, wide-spread application of CCS is aninfrastructural challenge with respect to implementing capture plants as well as building up acorresponding CO2 infrastructure for transportation and storage as well as in coal supply systems. Giventhe price assumptions applied, gas may not be competitive once CCS enters the system causing earlyretirements of such units or possibly stranded assets.
|
|
| 6. |
|
|
| 7. |
- Odenberger, Mikael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
-
Ramp-up of CO2 capture and storage within Europe
- 2008
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control. - : Elsevier BV. - 1750-5836. ; 2:4, s. 417-438
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates the role of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies as part of a portfolio for reducing CO2 emissions from the European electricity generation system until the year 2050. Special emphasis is put on the ramp-up of CCS with respect to timing of investments and requirement of corresponding CO2 transportation and storage infrastructure. The investigation comprises scenario analysis through modeling possible development of the electricity supply system for EU25 and together with a more detailed analysis of Northern Europe (Germany, UK, Denmark, Finland, Sweden and Norway). The modeling has been carried out with a techno-economic model (minimizing the system cost) including a detailed description of the present stationary European electricity generation system as obtained from the Chalmers Energy Infrastructure database.It is concluded that CCS can play a significant role in reducing CO2 emissions at a cost in the range of 20–60 €/t over the period studied. In EU25 as much as 39 Gt CO2 may be captured over the period 2020–2050 implying a steep ramp-up, i.e. most CCS capacity is added during the first two decades after 2020 from which it is assumed to be commercially available. Corresponding capture in Germany and UK amounts to 9 and 4 Gt, respectively. The analysis show that a transportation infrastructure can be put in place for about 2–5 €/t CO2. However, the steep ramp-up obtained from the model obviously do not take into account other issues which must be resolved for a large scale implementation of CCS. Examples of such issues are discussed in the paper and concern establishment of a legal framework regulating subsurface storage of CO2, inclusion of captured CO2 in the European Union emission trading scheme and issues related to fuel markets and fuel supply to accommodate an increased use of coal as a fuel.
|
|
| 8. |
- Odenberger, Mikael, 1977, et al.
(författare)
-
The role of CCS in the European electricity supply system
- 2009
-
Ingår i: Energy Procedia. - : Elsevier BV. - 1876-6102. ; 1:1, s. 4273-4280
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper investigates the role of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies as part of a portfolio for reducing CO2 emissionsfrom the European electricity supply system until the year 2050. The analysis is carried out with a techno-economic model(minimizing the system cost) including a detailed description of the present stationary European electricity generation system(power plants) and potential CO2 storage sites as obtained from the Chalmers Energy Infrastructure Database. Since the ability ofdifferent EU Member States and regions to facilitate and to benefit from CCS will most likely depend on local conditions interms of current energy mix, fuel supply chains and distance to suitable storage locations, special emphasize is put on analyzingturn-over in capital stock of the existing power plant infrastructure, timing of investments and the infrastructural implications oflarge scale introduction of CCS on a regional perspective. The paper discusses the role of and requirements on CCS for meetingstrict emission targets of 85% reduction while having a continued growth in electricity demand (according to EU projections).The results show that it is possible to meet an 85% CO2 reduction target by 2050, but this will require large contribution fromCCS. As expected, regions which are currently high in carbon intensity and which are located nearby suitable storage sites willbenefit mostly from CCS as an option. With the assumption that CCS will be commercially available in 2020 the model resultsgive a steep ramp-up in the use of CCS post 2020 which imposes challenges for timely investments in corresponding CCSinfrastructure.
|
|
| 9. |
- Reiner, David, et al.
(författare)
-
American exceptionalism? Similarities and differences in national attitudes toward energy policy and global warming
- 2006
-
Ingår i: Environmental Science & Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 40:7, s. 2093-2098
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite sharp differences in government policy, the views of the U.S. public on energy and global warming are remarkably similar to those in Sweden, Britain, and Japan. Americans do exhibit some differences, placing lower priority on the environment and global warming, and with fewer believing that "global warming has been established as a serious problem and immediate action is necessary". There also remains a small hard core of skeptics (
|
|
| 10. |
|
|
