| 1. |
- Arndt, D. S., et al.
(author)
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STATE OF THE CLIMATE IN 2017
- 2018
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In: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). - : American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; 99:8, s. S1-S310
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Research review (peer-reviewed)
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| 2. |
- Kageyama, Masa, et al.
(author)
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The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6-Part 1 : Overview and over-arching analysis plan
- 2018
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 11:3, s. 1033-1057
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper is the first of a series of four GMD papers on the PMIP4-CMIP6 experiments. Part 2 (OttoBliesner et al., 2017) gives details about the two PMIP4-CMIP6 interglacial experiments, Part 3 (Jungclaus et al., 2017) about the last millennium experiment, and Part 4 (Kageyama et al., 2017) about the Last Glacial Maximum experiment. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period experiment is part of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2, detailed in Haywood et al. (2016). The goal of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to different climate forcings for documented climatic states very different from the present and historical climates. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impact of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical, or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art numerical models simulate climate change. Climate models are usually developed using the present and historical climates as references, but climate projections show that future climates will lie well outside these conditions. Palaeoclimates very different from these reference states therefore provide stringent tests for state-of-the-art models and a way to assess whether their sensitivity to forcings is compatible with palaeoclimatic evidence. Simulations of five different periods have been designed to address the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6): the millennium prior to the industrial epoch (CMIP6 name: past1000); the mid-Holocene, 6000 years ago (midHolocene); the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago (lgm); the Last Interglacial, 127 000 years ago (lig127k); and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, 3.2 million years ago (midPliocene-eoi400). These climatic periods are well documented by palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental records, with climate and environmental changes relevant for the study and projection of future climate changes. This paper describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments and database requests, with a focus on their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP. It also outlines the analysis plan that takes advantage of the comparisons of the results across periods and across CMIP6 in collaboration with other MIPs.
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| 3. |
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| 5. |
- Harris, A. J L, et al.
(author)
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Effusive crises at Piton de la Fournaise 2014–2015: a review of a multi-national response model
- 2017
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In: Journal of Applied Volcanology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2191-5040. ; 6:1
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Many active European volcanoes and volcano observatories are island-based and located far from their administrative “mainland”. Consequently, Governments have developed multisite approaches, in which monitoring is performed by a network of individuals distributed across several national research centers. At a transnational level, multinational networks are also progressively emerging. Piton de la Fournaise (La Réunion Island, France) is one such example. Piton de la Fournaise is one of the most active volcanoes of the World, and is located at the greatest distance from its “mainland” than any other vulnerable “overseas” site, the observatory being 9365 km from its governing body in Paris. Effusive risk is high, so that a well-coordinated and rapid response involving near-real time delivery of trusted, validated and operational product for hazard assessment is critical. Here we review how near-real time assessments of lava flow propagation were developed using rapid provision, and update, of key source terms through a dynamic and open integration of near-real time remote sensing, modeling and measurement capabilities on both the national and international level. The multi-national system evolved during the five effusive crises of 2014–2015, and is now mature for Piton de la Fournaise. This review allows us to identify strong and weak points in an extended observatory system, and demonstrates that enhanced multi-national integration can have fundamental implications in scientific hazard assessment and response during an on-going effusive crisis.
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| 6. |
- Kageyama, Masa, et al.
(author)
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The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6-Part 4 : Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments
- 2017
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:11, s. 4035-4055
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to the present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional (Tier 2) sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalize on the relative abundance of paleoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.
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| 7. |
- Stokes, Chris R., et al.
(author)
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On the reconstruction of palaeo-ice sheets : Recent advances and future challenges
- 2015
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In: Quaternary Science Reviews. - : Elsevier BV. - 0277-3791 .- 1873-457X. ; 125, s. 15-49
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Reconstructing the growth and decay of palaeo-ice sheets is critical to understanding mechanisms of global climate change and associated sea-level fluctuations in the past, present and future. The significance of palaeo-ice sheets is further underlined by the broad range of disciplines concerned with reconstructing their behaviour, many of which have undergone a rapid expansion since the 1980s. In particular, there has been a major increase in the size and qualitative diversity of empirical data used to reconstruct and date ice sheets, and major improvements in our ability to simulate their dynamics in numerical ice sheet models. These developments have made it increasingly necessary to forge interdisciplinary links between sub-disciplines and to link numerical modelling with observations and dating of proxy records. The aim of this paper is to evaluate recent developments in the methods used to reconstruct ice sheets and outline some key challenges that remain, with an emphasis on how future work might integrate terrestrial and marine evidence together with numerical modelling. Our focus is on pan-ice sheet reconstructions of the last deglaciation, but regional case studies are used to illustrate methodological achievements, challenges and opportunities. Whilst various disciplines have made important progress in our understanding of ice-sheet dynamics, it is clear that data-model integration remains under-used, and that uncertainties remain poorly quantified in both empirically-based and numerical ice-Sheet reconstructions. The representation of past climate will continue to be the largest source of uncertainty for numerical modelling. As such, palaeo-observations are critical to constrain and validate modelling. State-of-the-art numerical models will continue to improve both in model resolution and in the breadth of inclusion of relevant processes, thereby enabling more accurate and more direct comparison with the increasing range of palaeo-observations. Thus, the capability is developing to use all relevant palaeo-records to more strongly constrain deglacial (and to a lesser extent pre-LGM) ice sheet evolution. In working towards that goal, the accurate representation of uncertainties is required for both constraint data and model outputs. Close cooperation between modelling and data-gathering communities is essential to ensure this capability is realised and continues to progress.
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| 8. |
- Coppola, D., et al.
(author)
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Shallow system rejuvenation and magma discharge trends at Piton de la Fournaise volcano (La Réunion Island)
- 2017
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In: Earth and Planetary Science Letters. - : Elsevier BV. - 1385-013X .- 0012-821X. ; 463, s. 13-24
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Basaltic magma chambers are often characterized by emptying and refilling cycles that influence their evolution in space and time, and the associated eruptive activity. During April 2007, the largest historical eruption of Piton de la Fournaise (Île de La Réunion, France) drained the shallow plumbing system (>240×106 m3) and resulted in collapse of the 1-km-wide summit crater. Following these major events, Piton de la Fournaise entered a seven-year long period of near-continuous deflation interrupted, in June 2014, by a new phase of significant inflation. By integrating multiple datasets (lava discharge rates, deformation, seismicity, gas flux, gas composition, and lava chemistry), we here show that the progressive migration of magma from a deeper (below sea level) storage zone gradually rejuvenated and pressurized the above-sea-level portion of the magmatic system consisting of a vertically-zoned network of relatively small-volume magma pockets. Continuous inflation provoked four small (
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| 9. |
- Tulet, Pierre, et al.
(author)
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First results of the Piton de la Fournaise STRAP 2015 experiment: multidisciplinary tracking of a volcanic gas and aerosol plume
- 2017
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 17:8, s. 5355-5378
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The STRAP (Synergie Transdisciplinaire pour Répondre aux Aléas liés aux Panaches volcaniques) campaign was conducted in 2015 to investigate the volcanic plumes of Piton de La Fournaise (La Réunion, France). For the first time, measurements at the local (near the vent) and at the regional scales around the island were conducted. The STRAP 2015 campaign has become possible thanks to a strong cross-disciplinary collaboration between volcanologists and meteorologists. The main observations during four eruptive periods (85 days) are summarized. They include the estimates of SO2, CO2 and H2O emissions, the altitude of the plume at the vent and over different areas of La Réunion Island, the evolution of the SO2 concentration, the aerosol size distribution, and the aerosol extinction profile. A climatology of the volcanic plume dispersion is also reported. Simulations and measurements showed that the plume formed by weak eruption has a stronger interaction with the surface of the island. Strong SO2 and particles concentrations above 1000 ppb and 50 000 cm−3, respectively, are frequently measured over 20 km of distance from the Piton de la Fournaise. The measured aerosol size distribution shows the predominance of small particles in the volcanic plume. A particular emphasis is placed on the gas-particle conversion with several cases of strong nucleation of sulfuric acid observed within the plume and at the distal site of the Maïdo observatory. The STRAP 2015 campaign gave a unique set of multi-disciplinary data that can now be used by modellers to improve the numerical paramameterizations of the physical and chemical evolution of the volcanic plumes.
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