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- Van Oijen, M., et al.
(författare)
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Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation : a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models
- 2014
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Ingår i: Biogeosciences. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1726-4170 .- 1726-4189. ; 11:22, s. 6357-6375
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We analyse how climate change may alter risks posed by droughts to carbon fluxes in European ecosystems. The approach follows a recently proposed framework for risk analysis based on probability theory. In this approach, risk is quantified as the product of hazard probability and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of a drought hazard is calculated here from the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Vulnerability is calculated from the response to drought simulated by process-based vegetation models. We use six different models: three for generic vegetation (JSBACH, LPJmL, ORCHIDEE) and three for specific ecosystems (Scots pine forests: BASFOR; winter wheat fields: EPIC; grasslands: PASIM). The periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 are compared. Climate data are based on gridded observations and on output from the regional climate model REMO using the SRES A1B scenario. The risk analysis is carried out for similar to 18 000 grid cells of 0.25 x 0.25 degrees across Europe. For each grid cell, drought vulnerability and risk are quantified for five seasonal variables: net primary and ecosystem productivity (NPP, NEP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), soil water content and evapotranspiration. In this analysis, climate change leads to increased drought risks for net primary productivity in the Mediterranean area: five of the models estimate that risk will exceed 15 %. The risks increase mainly because of greater drought probability; ecosystem vulnerability will increase to a lesser extent. Because NPP will be affected more than Rh, future carbon sequestration (NEP) will also be at risk predominantly in southern Europe, with risks exceeding 0.25 g Cm-2 d(-1) according to most models, amounting to reductions in carbon sequestration of 20 to 80 %.
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- Zemp, D. C., et al.
(författare)
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Node-weighted measures for complex networks with directed and weighted edges for studying continental moisture recycling
- 2014
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Ingår i: Europhysics letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 0295-5075 .- 1286-4854. ; 107:5, s. 58005-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In many real-world networks nodes represent agents or objects of different sizes or importance. However, the size of the nodes is rarely taken into account in network analysis, possibly inducing bias in network measures and confusion in their interpretation. Recently, a new axiomatic scheme of node-weighted network measures has been suggested for networks with undirected and unweighted edges. However, many real-world systems are best represented by complex networks which have directed and/or weighted edges. Here, we extend this approach and suggest new versions of the degree and the clustering coefficient associated to network motifs for networks with directed and/or weighted edges and weighted nodes. We apply these measures to a spatially embedded network model and a real-world moisture recycling network. We show that these measures improve the representation of the underlying systems' structure and are of general use for studying any type of complex network.
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- Zemp, D. C., et al.
(författare)
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On the importance of cascading moisture recycling in South America
- 2014
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 14:23, s. 13337-13359
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Continental moisture recycling is a crucial process of the South American climate system. In particular, evapotranspiration from the Amazon basin contributes substantially to precipitation regionally as well as over other remote regions such as the La Plata basin. Here we present an in-depth analysis of South American moisture recycling mechanisms. In particular, we quantify the importance of cascading moisture recycling (CMR), which describes moisture transport between two locations on the continent that involves re-evaporation cycles along the way. Using an Eulerian atmospheric moisture tracking model forced by a combination of several historical climate data sets, we were able to construct a complex network of moisture recycling for South America. Our results show that CMR contributes about 9-10% to the total precipitation over South America and 17-18% over the La Plata basin. CMR increases the fraction of total precipitation over the La Plata basin that originates from the Amazon basin from 18-23 to 24-29% during the wet season. We also show that the south-western part of the Amazon basin is not only a direct source of rainfall over the La Plata basin, but also a key intermediary region that distributes moisture originating from the entire Amazon basin towards the La Plata basin during the wet season. Our results suggest that land use change in this region might have a stronger impact on downwind rainfall than previously thought. Using complex network analysis techniques, we find the eastern side of the sub-tropical Andes to be a key region where CMR pathways are channeled. This study offers a better understanding of the interactions between the vegetation and the atmosphere on the water cycle, which is needed in a context of land use and climate change in South America.
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