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- Chang, A. Y., et al.
(författare)
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Past, present, and future of global health financing : A review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 195 countries, 1995-2050
- 2019
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Lancet Publishing Group. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10187, s. 2233-2260
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Comprehensive and comparable estimates of health spending in each country are a key input for health policy and planning, and are necessary to support the achievement of national and international health goals. Previous studies have tracked past and projected future health spending until 2040 and shown that, with economic development, countries tend to spend more on health per capita, with a decreasing share of spending from development assistance and out-of-pocket sources. We aimed to characterise the past, present, and predicted future of global health spending, with an emphasis on equity in spending across countries. Methods: We estimated domestic health spending for 195 countries and territories from 1995 to 2016, split into three categories-government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending-and estimated development assistance for health (DAH) from 1990 to 2018. We estimated future scenarios of health spending using an ensemble of linear mixed-effects models with time series specifications to project domestic health spending from 2017 through 2050 and DAH from 2019 through 2050. Data were extracted from a broad set of sources tracking health spending and revenue, and were standardised and converted to inflation-adjusted 2018 US dollars. Incomplete or low-quality data were modelled and uncertainty was estimated, leading to a complete data series of total, government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending, and DAH. Estimates are reported in 2018 US dollars, 2018 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars, and as a percentage of gross domestic product. We used demographic decomposition methods to assess a set of factors associated with changes in government health spending between 1995 and 2016 and to examine evidence to support the theory of the health financing transition. We projected two alternative future scenarios based on higher government health spending to assess the potential ability of governments to generate more resources for health. Findings: Between 1995 and 2016, health spending grew at a rate of 4.00% (95% uncertainty interval 3.89-4.12) annually, although it grew slower in per capita terms (2.72% [2.61-2.84]) and increased by less than $1 per capita over this period in 22 of 195 countries. The highest annual growth rates in per capita health spending were observed in upper-middle-income countries (5.55% [5.18-5.95]), mainly due to growth in government health spending, and in lower-middle-income countries (3.71% [3.10-4.34]), mainly from DAH. Health spending globally reached $8.0 trillion (7.8-8.1) in 2016 (comprising 8.6% [8.4-8.7] of the global economy and $10.3 trillion [10.1-10.6] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), with a per capita spending of US$5252 (5184-5319) in high-income countries, $491 (461-524) in upper-middle-income countries, $81 (74-89) in lower-middle-income countries, and $40 (38-43) in low-income countries. In 2016, 0.4% (0.3-0.4) of health spending globally was in low-income countries, despite these countries comprising 10.0% of the global population. In 2018, the largest proportion of DAH targeted HIV/AIDS ($9.5 billion, 24.3% of total DAH), although spending on other infectious diseases (excluding tuberculosis and malaria) grew fastest from 2010 to 2018 (6.27% per year). The leading sources of DAH were the USA and private philanthropy (excluding corporate donations and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation). For the first time, we included estimates of China’s contribution to DAH ($644.7 million in 2018). Globally, health spending is projected to increase to $15.0 trillion (14.0-16.0) by 2050 (reaching 9.4% [7.6-11.3] of the global economy and $21.3 trillion [19.8-23.1] in purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars), but at a lower growth rate of 1.84% (1.68-2.02) annually, and with continuing disparities in spending between countries. In 2050, we estimate that 0.6% (0.6-0.7) of health spending will occur in currently low-income countries, despite these countries comprising an estimated 15.7% of the global population by 2050. The ratio between per capita health spending in high-income and low-income countries was 130.2 (122.9-136.9) in 2016 and is projected to remain at similar levels in 2050 (125.9 [113.7-138.1]). The decomposition analysis identified governments’ increased prioritisation of the health sector and economic development as the strongest factors associated with increases in government health spending globally. Future government health spending scenarios suggest that, with greater prioritisation of the health sector and increased government spending, health spending per capita could more than double, with greater impacts in countries that currently have the lowest levels of government health spending. Interpretation: Financing for global health has increased steadily over the past two decades and is projected to continue increasing in the future, although at a slower pace of growth and with persistent disparities in per-capita health spending between countries. Out-of-pocket spending is projected to remain substantial outside of high-income countries. Many low-income countries are expected to remain dependent on development assistance, although with greater government spending, larger investments in health are feasible. In the absence of sustained new investments in health, increasing efficiency in health spending is essential to meet global health targets. © 2019 The Author(s).
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- Feigin, Valery L., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national burden of neurological disorders, 1990–2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Neurology. - : Elsevier. - 1474-4422 .- 1474-4465. ; 18:5, s. 459-480
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Neurological disorders are increasingly recognised as major causes of death and disability worldwide. The aim of this analysis from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2016 is to provide the most comprehensive and up-to-date estimates of the global, regional, and national burden from neurological disorders.Methods: We estimated prevalence, incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]) by age and sex for 15 neurological disorder categories (tetanus, meningitis, encephalitis, stroke, brain and other CNS cancers, traumatic brain injury, spinal cord injury, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, Parkinson's disease, multiple sclerosis, motor neuron diseases, idiopathic epilepsy, migraine, tension-type headache, and a residual category for other less common neurological disorders) in 195 countries from 1990 to 2016. DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, was the main method of estimation of prevalence and incidence, and the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) was used for mortality estimation. We quantified the contribution of 84 risks and combinations of risk to the disease estimates for the 15 neurological disorder categories using the GBD comparative risk assessment approach.Findings: Globally, in 2016, neurological disorders were the leading cause of DALYs (276 million [95% UI 247–308]) and second leading cause of deaths (9·0 million [8·8–9·4]). The absolute number of deaths and DALYs from all neurological disorders combined increased (deaths by 39% [34–44] and DALYs by 15% [9–21]) whereas their age-standardised rates decreased (deaths by 28% [26–30] and DALYs by 27% [24–31]) between 1990 and 2016. The only neurological disorders that had a decrease in rates and absolute numbers of deaths and DALYs were tetanus, meningitis, and encephalitis. The four largest contributors of neurological DALYs were stroke (42·2% [38·6–46·1]), migraine (16·3% [11·7–20·8]), Alzheimer's and other dementias (10·4% [9·0–12·1]), and meningitis (7·9% [6·6–10·4]). For the combined neurological disorders, age-standardised DALY rates were significantly higher in males than in females (male-to-female ratio 1·12 [1·05–1·20]), but migraine, multiple sclerosis, and tension-type headache were more common and caused more burden in females, with male-to-female ratios of less than 0·7. The 84 risks quantified in GBD explain less than 10% of neurological disorder DALY burdens, except stroke, for which 88·8% (86·5–90·9) of DALYs are attributable to risk factors, and to a lesser extent Alzheimer's disease and other dementias (22·3% [11·8–35·1] of DALYs are risk attributable) and idiopathic epilepsy (14·1% [10·8–17·5] of DALYs are risk attributable).Interpretation: Globally, the burden of neurological disorders, as measured by the absolute number of DALYs, continues to increase. As populations are growing and ageing, and the prevalence of major disabling neurological disorders steeply increases with age, governments will face increasing demand for treatment, rehabilitation, and support services for neurological disorders. The scarcity of established modifiable risks for most of the neurological burden demonstrates that new knowledge is required to develop effective prevention and treatment strategies.Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Feigin, Valery L, et al.
(författare)
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Global, Regional, and Country-Specific Lifetime Risks of Stroke, 1990 and 2016.
- 2018
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Ingår i: The New England journal of medicine. - 1533-4406 .- 0028-4793. ; 379:25, s. 2429-2437
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The lifetime risk of stroke has been calculated in a limited number of selected populations. We sought to estimate the lifetime risk of stroke at the regional, country, and global level using data from a comprehensive study of the prevalence of major diseases.We used the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016 estimates of stroke incidence and the competing risks of death from any cause other than stroke to calculate the cumulative lifetime risks of first stroke, ischemic stroke, or hemorrhagic stroke among adults 25 years of age or older. Estimates of the lifetime risks in the years 1990 and 2016 were compared. Countries were categorized into quintiles of the sociodemographic index (SDI) used in the GBD Study, and the risks were compared across quintiles. Comparisons were made with the use of point estimates and uncertainty intervals representing the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles around the estimate.The estimated global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was 24.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.5 to 26.2); the risk among men was 24.7% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.3 to 26.0), and the risk among women was 25.1% (95% uncertainty interval, 23.7 to 26.5). The risk of ischemic stroke was 18.3%, and the risk of hemorrhagic stroke was 8.2%. In high-SDI, high-middle-SDI, and low-SDI countries, the estimated lifetime risk of stroke was 23.5%, 31.1% (highest risk), and 13.2% (lowest risk), respectively; the 95% uncertainty intervals did not overlap between these categories. The highest estimated lifetime risks of stroke according to GBD region were in East Asia (38.8%), Central Europe (31.7%), and Eastern Europe (31.6%), and the lowest risk was in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (11.8%). The mean global lifetime risk of stroke increased from 22.8% in 1990 to 24.9% in 2016, a relative increase of 8.9% (95% uncertainty interval, 6.2 to 11.5); the competing risk of death from any cause other than stroke was considered in this calculation.In 2016, the global lifetime risk of stroke from the age of 25 years onward was approximately 25% among both men and women. There was geographic variation in the lifetime risk of stroke, with the highest risks in East Asia, Central Europe, and Eastern Europe. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).
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- Pelttari, LM, et al.
(författare)
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RAD51B in Familial Breast Cancer
- 2016
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Ingår i: PloS one. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:5, s. e0153788-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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- Langstrom, S, et al.
(författare)
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Haematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation in Children Shifts the Coagulation System towards a Pro-Coagulant State
- 2018
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Ingår i: Thrombosis and haemostasis. - : Georg Thieme Verlag KG. - 2567-689X .- 0340-6245. ; 118:8, s. 1390-1396
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coagulation system is disturbed by several mechanisms after allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). We evaluated the effect of HSCT on coagulation system by various conventional and investigational methods in 30 children and adolescents who received HSCT due to haematological malignancies. Pro-thrombin fragment 1 + 2, a specific measure of thrombin generation, and von Willebrand factor, a measure of endothelial activation, increased after conditioning treatment, and remained elevated until 3 months after HSCT (p < 0.05 for all comparisons to pre-conditioning treatment). D-dimer, a measure of fibrin turnover, was elevated from the second week onwards until 4 weeks after HSCT (p < 0.05). Endogenous thrombin potential was increased after conditioning, and at 2 weeks after HSCT (p < 0.05). Furthermore, the activities of acute phase reactants fibrinogen and coagulation factor VIII were increased (p < 0.05 for all comparisons to pre-conditioning treatment) from the first week onwards up to 3 weeks and 3 months after HSCT, respectively. Taken together, paediatric patients receiving HSCT demonstrate distinct and prolonged variations in the coagulation system towards a pro-coagulant state. This shift is of importance when estimating the risk of haemostatic and thrombotic complications in these children.
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- Khair, Kate, et al.
(författare)
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The impact of clinical practice on the outcome of central venous access devices in children with haemophilia
- 2017
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Ingår i: Haemophilia. - : Wiley. - 1351-8216. ; 23:4, s. E276-E281
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Central venous access devices facilitate home treatment in boys with haemophilia. These are usually fully implanted lines, referred to as ports. Caregivers are taught to manage the port using sterile techniques and maintaining patency by flushing with saline or heparin solution. National and international guidelines for the home care of ports are lacking. Aim: To evaluate if infection or occlusion rates differ between home care regimens used for ports in children with haemophilia. Methods: Children with ports were identified from the PedNet registry. Data on the homecare policy were acquired from each centre. To ensure a complete data set for each port, only ports that had been removed were included in the study. Three care groups were defined: ‘aseptic non touch technique’, ‘sterile technique’ and ‘fully sterile technique’. Outcomes within and between the groups were analysed. Results: A total of 240 children with 352 ports were studied. Insertion occurred at a median age of 1.32 years. The median port duration was 2.94 years with a total of 215 688 port days in children without and 183 852 in children with inhibitors. Infection was the most common cause of port removal (34%); there was no significant difference with infection as reason for removal between the different care groups. Occlusion was not more frequent in centres that did not use heparin. Conclusion: Use of sterile gloves and gowns did not reduce the risk of port infection. Using less stringent sterile techniques for accessing ports is easier for caregivers and in addition may have health economic benefits.
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- Schönning, A., et al.
(författare)
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Venous thrombosis in children and adolescents with Hodgkin lymphoma in Sweden
- 2017
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Ingår i: Thrombosis Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 0049-3848 .- 1879-2472. ; 152, s. 64-68
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction Pediatric patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) have several risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Although these patients are occasionally treated with thromboprophylaxis, no guidelines are implemented in Sweden. Scarce data from adult patients indicate an increased risk of VTE, but pediatric data is largely missing. Given the favorable overall survival of HL, there should reasonably be more focus on preventing complications. Materials and methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study, including all patients registered in the Childhood Cancer Registry under the age of 18 years diagnosed with HL between January 2005 and December 2015 in Sweden. Results Data was retrieved from the medical records of all 163 patients (100%) at six Swedish pediatric cancer centers. The incidence of VTE was 7.7% (symptomatic VTE 3.9%). The median follow-up was 3.4 years (range 0.3–10.5). Only five patients (3.1%) were treated with thromboprophylaxis. All VTE events occurred in the older age category (11–17 years) and all but one (92.7%) had a mediastinal mass. While the VTE did not significantly affect the treatment of HL, it caused increased morbidity and 2/12 developed a post-thrombotic syndrome. No significant risk factors for VTE were identified. Conclusions VTE is a relatively common complication of HL and its treatment, causing increased acute and long-term morbidity. However, due to limited number of events we could not demonstrate risk-factors for VTE that would identify patients who might benefit from thromboprophylaxis.
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