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- Höglund, Kristine, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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The Predicament of Elections in War-Torn Societies
- 2009
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Ingår i: Democratization. - London : Frank Cass Publishers. - 1351-0347 .- 1743-890X. ; 16:3, s. 530-557
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Why do elections held in the shadow of civil wars sometimes generate more violence in already war-torn societies, while in other circumstances they do not? This article develops a conceptual framework based on three clusters of factors to analyse the conflict-generating aspects of elections in war-torn societies: the key actors in the electoral processes; the institutions of elections; and the stakes of the elections. Two types of war-related elections are distinguished: elections held during an ongoing civil war, and elections held in the post-war period when peace is to be implemented. While different in many respects, the two contexts share critical characteristics through their association with the legacy of warfare. Several important implications emerge from the analysis. First, relating to militant and violent actors, incentive structures need to be altered by addressing both the opportunities and means of violence. Second, to prevent inducements for violent behaviour, institutional arrangements - including electoral commissions have to be crafted with consideration given to local conflict dynamics and the history of violent conflict. Finally, the stakes of elections in war-shattered societies can be reduced through, for instance, constitutional pact-making and the oversight of external actors in electoral processes.
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- Söderberg Kovacs, Mimmi, 1974-
(författare)
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From Rebellion to Politics : The Transformation of Rebel Groups to Political Parties in Civil War Peace Processes
- 2007
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Why do some rebel groups in civil war peace processes transform into viable political parties while others do not? The transformation of armed rebels into peaceful politicians has been identified as one of the most critical factors in explaining the successful transition from violence to sustainable peace. Yet few studies have examined under what conditions these transformations are more or less likely to be carried out. This study addresses this research problem. It focuses specifically on rebel groups that emerge as opposition parties in post-war politics. Drawing on insights provided by previous research, the study develops a novel and integrated theoretical framework which identifies the relevant causal processes of rebel-to-party transformations and links them to a set of explanatory variables in a levels-of-analysis framework. A comparative study is conducted of four rebel organisations that have experienced diverse outcomes in this respect: the FMLN in El Salvador and Renamo in Mozambique, which both became viable political parties, and the RUF in Sierra Leone and the Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, which did not. It is found that the rebel groups are more likely to become viable political parties when the leadership of the group is united on the decision to abandon the armed struggle and enter peaceful politics; when the rebel group has a relatively high level of popular support among the domestic population; and when key international actors and donors recognise the rebel group as a legitimate political actor. The findings also demonstrate how and why each of these three factors is linked to the outcomes in question by identifying the group’s selective and collective incentives for mobilising support and resources as the key causal mechanisms at work in rebel-to-party transformations. These conclusions are critical to our understanding of the conditions that facilitate or obstruct a transition from rebellion to politics.
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