| 1. |
- Larsson Ivanov, Oskar, et al.
(författare)
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Consideration of uncertainties in LCA for infrastructure using probabilistic methods
- 2019
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Ingår i: Structure and Infrastructure Engineering. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1573-2479 .- 1744-8980. ; 15:6, s. 711-724
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The construction and usage of transport infrastructure are major causes of greenhouse gas emissions and energy consumption. The effects of resource consumption and pollutant emissions are often quantified through Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) models. All decisions made in infrastructure projects during the whole life cycle are afflicted by uncertainty, e.g. physical properties of materials or amount of pollutants emitted by certain processes. The pervasive role of uncertainty is reflected in LCA models, which therefore should consider uncertainty from various sources and provide a sound quantification of their effects. The aim of the work presented in this paper is to give an overview of different sources of uncertainty in LCA of infrastructure projects and to describe systematic methods to evaluate their influence on the results. The possibility of including uncertainty in a LCA-tool for infrastructure is presented, studying the sensitivity of the model output to the input parameters and two alternative approaches for propagation of uncertainty using two case studies. It is shown that, besides the influence of uncertainty in emission factors, other inputs such as material amounts and service life could contribute significantly to the variability of model output and has to be considered if reliable results are sought.
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| 2. |
- Larsson Ivanov, Oskar, et al.
(författare)
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Prolca—treatment of uncertainty in infrastructure LCA
- 2019
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Ingår i: Life-Cycle Analysis and Assessment in Civil Engineering. - : CRC Press/Balkema. - 9781138626331 - 9781351857574 ; , s. 2923-2930
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The construction, operation and maintenance of transportation infrastructure require energy and materials which impact the environment. Large infrastructure projects thus use resources intensively and leave a significant environmental footprint. To demonstrate and support the sustainability of such large-scale projects, life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a common tool to evaluate environmental impacts in all stages of infrastructure life cycle, from raw material production through end-of-life management. However, the various phases of the assessment are all associated with uncertainties. If decisions are made without consideration of these uncertainties, they might be misleading and suboptimal. In this paper, results are presentedwhere variations associated with different parameters and tools for life cycle assessment have been considered using probabilistic methods. A categorization of common uncertainties in LCA is also included. The most influential parameters can be identified with sensitivity analysis methods, since for LCA with a large number of parameters it may be unreasonable to incorporate all in a probabilistic simulation. For a limited amount of influential variables, Monte Carlo simulation has been used to assess the effects of uncertainties on the results.A bridge has been used as a case study to find important aspects in infrastructure LCA. The results indicate that if the most influential parameters are considered as random variables, it is possible to estimate the uncertainty and increase the validity of the life cycle assessment.
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| 3. |
- Pettersson, Pär, 1985, et al.
(författare)
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A proposal for an operating cycle description format for road transport missions
- 2018
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Ingår i: European Transport Research Review. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1867-0717 .- 1866-8887. ; 10:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: This article presents a proposal for an operating cycle format for describing transport missions of road vehicles, for example a logging truck fetching its cargo. The primary application is in dynamic simulation models for evaluation of energy consumption and other costs of transportation. When applied to product development, the objective is an ensemble of components and functions optimised for specific tasks and environments. When applied to selection of vehicle configuration, the objective is a vehicle specification tailored for its task. Method: The proposal is presented and its four main parts: road, weather, traffic and mission, are thoroughly explained. Furthermore, we implement the proposal in an example of a dynamic forward simulation model. Results: The example model is used for two case studies: a synthetic example of a complex transport mission (a logging truck fetching its cargo) that shows some advanced format features, and an example from a real vehicle log file (cargo transport) that seeks to compare the resulting simulated speed profile to the measured one. Conclusion: The results show that the proposed format works in practice. It can represent complex transport missions and it can be used to reproduce the main features of a logged speed profile even when combined with simple driver and vehicle models.
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