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- Sun, Shao, et al.
(författare)
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Evolution of future precipitation extremes: Viewpoint of climate change classification
- 2022
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Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - : Wiley. - 0899-8418 .- 1097-0088. ; 42:2, s. 1220-1230
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is often described as the average changes in temperature and precipitation; however, it is the change in climate extremes determines the levels of socioeconomic impacts related to climate change. It is generally believed that global warming drives increase in frequency, intensity and duration of precipitation extremes, but these changes vary regionally. Focusing on the relationships between evolution of extreme events and long-term climate change, here we propose a novel classification scheme based on Kӧppen's system and changes in mean and variability of precipitation, divide the global climate into 20 different changing types and reveal the regional evolution of precipitation extremes. We find that precipitation extremes ascend significantly in wetting regions, especially in tropical and temperate zones, independent with changed variability. As for drying regions, the evolution of extremes is related to precipitation variability. An increase of extremes can still be detected in fluctuant-drying areas, while a slight decrease can be seen in stabilized-drying areas. It is surprising to find increase in both wetness and dryness extremes which implies higher intensity of meteorological hazards in densely populated areas. Based on the current and projected growth of population exposure to precipitation extremes, we identify some hotspots with high potential risk in the future.
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| 2. |
- Ye, Tao, et al.
(författare)
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Reducing livestock snow disaster risk in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau due to warming and socioeconomic development
- 2022
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 813
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global warming can have positive or negative impacts on society depending on sectors and changes in climate impact drivers, resulting in opportunities or risks. The same holds true for social-economic changes. However, past research has mostly focused on assessing risks, leaving potential opportunities under-addressed. Here, we simulated the impact of climate change and socioeconomic development on livestock snow disasters over the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau during 1986–2100, by integrating the drivers of climate and socioeconomic changes via an event-based disaster risk assessment model. Model results show climate change and socioeconomic development contributes about equally to reducing livestock loss in snow disasters by 4% yr−1 up to 2100 under representative concentration pathway 8.5 and shared-socioeconomic pathway 5. The marginal benefit from climate change was projected to be a 43.2% reduction in annual average loss per degree kelvin warming, and that from socioeconomic development was a 12.4% reduction per 100% increase in gross domestic production. In a 2 °C warmer world, the annual average loss could be 91% smaller compared with the baseline period (1986–2005). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C instead of 2 °C would reduce the benefit by 5%, requiring a 135% increase in the marginal benefits of prevention capacity to offset the reduction.
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