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- Bowman, L. R., et al.
(författare)
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Alarm Variables for Dengue Outbreaks: A Multi-Centre Study in Asia and Latin America
- 2016
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Ingår i: Plos One. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Worldwide, dengue is an unrelenting economic and health burden. Dengue outbreaks have become increasingly common, which place great strain on health infrastructure and services. Early warning models could allow health systems and vector control programmes to respond more cost-effectively and efficiently. The Shewhart method and Endemic Channel were used to identify alarm variables that may predict dengue outbreaks. Five country datasets were compiled by epidemiological week over the years 2007-2013. These data were split between the years 2007-2011 (historic period) and 2012-2013 (evaluation period). Associations between alarm/outbreak variables were analysed using logistic regression during the historic period while alarm and outbreak signals were captured during the evaluation period. These signals were combined to form alarm/outbreak periods, where 2 signals were equal to 1 period. Alarm periods were quantified and used to predict subsequent outbreak periods. Across Mexico and Dominican Republic, an increase in probable cases predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases with sensitivities and positive predictive values (PPV) of 93%/83% and 97%/86% respectively, at a lag of 1-12 weeks. An increase in mean temperature ably predicted outbreaks of hospitalised cases in Mexico and Brazil, with sensitivities and PPVs of 79%/73% and 81%/46% respectively, also at a lag of 1-12 weeks. Mean age was predictive of hospitalised cases at sensitivities and PPVs of 72%/74% and 96%/45% in Mexico and Malaysia respectively, at a lag of 4-16 weeks. An increase in probable cases was predictive of outbreaks, while meteorological variables, particularly mean temperature, demonstrated predictive potential in some countries, but not all. While it is difficult to define uniform variables applicable in every country context, the use of probable cases and meteorological variables in tailored early warning systems could be used to highlight the occurrence of dengue outbreaks or indicate increased risk of dengue transmission.
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- Bauer, M., et al.
(författare)
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Solar insolation in springtime influences age of onset of bipolar I disorder
- 2017
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Ingår i: Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica. - : Wiley. - 0001-690X .- 1600-0447. ; 136:6, s. 571-582
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To confirm prior findings that the larger the maximum monthly increase in solar insolation in springtime, the younger the age of onset of bipolar disorder. Method: Data were collected from 5536 patients at 50 sites in 32 countries on six continents. Onset occurred at 456 locations in 57 countries. Variables included solar insolation, birth-cohort, family history, polarity of first episode and country physician density. Results: There was a significant, inverse association between the maximum monthly increase in solar insolation at the onset location, and the age of onset. This effect was reduced in those without a family history of mood disorders and with a first episode of mania rather than depression. The maximum monthly increase occurred in springtime. The youngest birth-cohort had the youngest age of onset. All prior relationships were confirmed using both the entire sample, and only the youngest birth-cohort (all estimated coefficients P < 0.001). Conclusion: A large increase in springtime solar insolation may impact the onset of bipolar disorder, especially with a family history of mood disorders. Recent societal changes that affect light exposure (LED lighting, mobile devices backlit with LEDs) may influence adaptability to a springtime circadian challenge.
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- Bauer, Michael, et al.
(författare)
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Association between solar insolation and a history of suicide attempts in bipolar I disorder.
- 2019
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Ingår i: Journal of psychiatric research. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-1379 .- 0022-3956. ; 113, s. 1-9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In many international studies, rates of completed suicide and suicide attempts have a seasonal pattern that peaks in spring or summer. This exploratory study investigated the association between solar insolation and a history of suicide attempt in patients with bipolar I disorder. Solar insolation is the amount of electromagnetic energy from the Sun striking a surface area on Earth. Data were collected previously from 5536 patients with bipolar I disorder at 50 collection sites in 32 countries at a wide range of latitudes in both hemispheres. Suicide related data were available for 3365 patients from 310 onset locations in 51 countries. 1047 (31.1%) had a history of suicide attempt. There was a significant inverse association between a history of suicide attempt and the ratio of mean winter solar insolation/mean summer solar insolation. This ratio is smallest near the poles where the winter insolation is very small compared to the summer insolation. This ratio is largest near the equator where there is relatively little variation in the insolation over the year. Other variables in the model that were positively associated with suicide attempt were being female, a history of alcohol or substance abuse, and being in a younger birth cohort. Living in a country with a state-sponsored religion decreased the association. (All estimated coefficients p<0.01). In summary, living in locations with large changes in solar insolation between winter and summer may be associated with increased suicide attempts in patients with bipolar disorder. Further investigation of the impacts of solar insolation on the course of bipolar disorder is needed.
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- Dietrich, K., et al.
(författare)
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Active Atoms and Interstitials in Two-Dimensional Colloidal Crystals
- 2018
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Ingår i: Physical Review Letters. - 0031-9007. ; 120:26
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We study experimentally and numerically the motion of a self-phoretic active particle in two-dimensional loosely packed colloidal crystals at fluid interfaces. Two scenarios emerge depending on the interactions between the active particle and the lattice: the active particle either navigates throughout the crystal as an interstitial or is part of the lattice and behaves as an active atom. Active interstitials undergo a run-and-tumble-like motion, with the passive colloids of the crystal acting as tumbling sites. Instead, active atoms exhibit an intermittent motion, stemming from the interplay between the periodic potential landscape of the passive crystal and the particle's self-propulsion. Our results constitute the first step towards the realization of non-close-packed crystalline phases with internal activity.
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