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- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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- Levy, Rebecca C., et al.
(författare)
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Outflows from Super Star Clusters in the Central Starburst of NGC 253
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 912:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Young massive clusters play an important role in the evolution of their host galaxies, and feedback from the high-mass stars in these clusters can have profound effects on the surrounding interstellar medium. The nuclear starburst in the nearby galaxy NGC 253 at a distance of 3.5 Mpc is a key laboratory in which to study star formation in an extreme environment. Previous high-resolution (1.9 pc) dust continuum observations from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) discovered 14 compact, massive super star clusters (SSCs) still in formation. We present here ALMA data at 350 GHz with 28 mas (0.5 pc) resolution. We detect blueshifted absorption and redshifted emission (P-Cygni profiles) toward three of these SSCs in multiple lines, including CS 7-6 and (HCN)-C-13 4-3, which represent direct evidence for previously unobserved outflows. The mass contained in these outflows is a significant fraction of the cluster gas masses, which suggests we are witnessing a short but important phase. Further evidence of this is the finding of a molecular shell around the only SSC visible at near-IR wavelengths. We model the P-Cygni line profiles to constrain the outflow geometry, finding that the outflows must be nearly spherical. Through a comparison of the outflow properties with predictions from simulations, we find that none of the available mechanisms completely explains the observations, although dust-reprocessed radiation pressure and O star stellar winds are the most likely candidates. The observed outflows will have a very substantial effect on the clusters' evolution and star formation efficiency.
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- Catena, Riccardo, 1978, et al.
(författare)
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Atomic responses to general dark matter-electron interactions
- 2020
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Ingår i: Physical Review Research. - 2643-1564. ; 2:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In the leading paradigm of modern cosmology, about 80% of our Universe's matter content is in the form of hypothetical, as yet undetected particles. These do not emit or absorb radiation at any observable wavelengths, and therefore constitute the so-called dark matter (DM) component of the Universe. Detecting the particles forming the Milky Way DM component is one of the main challenges for astroparticle physics and basic science in general. One promising way to achieve this goal is to search for rare DM-electron interactions in low-background deep underground detectors. Key to the interpretation of this search is the response of detectors' materials to elementary DM-electron interactions defined in terms of electron wave functions' overlap integrals. In this work, we compute the response of atomic argon and xenon targets used in operating DM search experiments to general, so far unexplored DM-electron interactions. We find that the rate at which atoms can be ionized via DM-electron scattering can in general be expressed in terms of four independent atomic responses, three of which we identify here for the first time. We find our new atomic responses to be numerically important in a variety of cases, which we identify and investigate thoroughly using effective theory methods. We then use our atomic responses to set 90% confidence level (C.L.) exclusion limits on the strength of a wide range of DM-electron interactions from the null result of DM search experiments using argon and xenon targets.
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- Gremmelspacher, Jonas Manuel, et al.
(författare)
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Future climate resilience through informed decision making in retrofitting projects
- 2020
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Ingår i: Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2020 : 20th International Conference, Proceedings - 20th International Conference, Proceedings. - Cham : Springer International Publishing. - 0302-9743 .- 1611-3349. - 9783030588083 - 9783030588076 ; 12251 LNCS, s. 352-364
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- High energy use for space conditioning in residential buildings is a significant economic factor for owners and tenants, but also contributes to resource depletion and carbon emissions due to energy generation. Many existing dwellings should thus be retrofitted in order to fulfil the ambitious EU carbon emission mitigation goals by 2050. To investigate how future climate resilience can be implemented in the design process of retrofitting measures, this study concentrates on real case studies that have been retrofitted during the past decade. The performance of retrofitting measures for four case studies in Denmark and Germany were investigated under future climate projections and compared between the non-retrofitted initial stage of the buildings and the retrofitted stage. Building performance simulations were employed to investigate how severe the effects of climate change until the end of the 21st century on the material choice and system design is. Results show that summertime thermal comfort will be a major challenge in the future. Energy use for space heating was seen to decrease for periods in the future, also the severity of cold events decreased, resulting in a decline of heating peak loads. Additionally, not considering extreme events was proven to lead to miss-dimensioning thermal systems. Overall, the study shows that adaptation of informed decisions, accounting for the uncertainties of future climate, can bring a significant benefit for energy-efficient retrofits, potentially promoting adequate passive measures as well as free cooling to prevent overheating and enhance heat removal.
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- Levy, Rebecca C., et al.
(författare)
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The Morpho-kinematic Architecture of Super Star Clusters in the Center of NGC 253
- 2022
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Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-4357 .- 0004-637X. ; 935:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The center of the nearby galaxy NGC 253 hosts a population of more than a dozen super star clusters (SSCs) that are still in the process of forming. The majority of the star formation of the burst is concentrated in these SSCs, and the starburst is powering a multiphase outflow from the galaxy. In this work, we measure the 350 GHz dust continuum emission toward the center of NGC 253 at 47 mas (0.8 pc) resolution using data from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array. We report the detection of 350 GHz (dust) continuum emission in the outflow for the first time, associated with the prominent South-West streamer. In this feature, the dust emission has a width of approximate to 8 pc, is located at the outer edge of the CO emission, and corresponds to a molecular gas mass of similar to(8-17)x10(6) M (circle dot). In the starburst nucleus, we measure the resolved radial profiles, sizes, and molecular gas masses of the SSCs. Compared to previous work at the somewhat lower spatial resolution, the SSCs here break apart into smaller substructures with radii 0.4-0.7 pc. In projection, the SSCs, dust, and dense molecular gas appear to be arranged as a thin, almost linear, structure roughly 155 pc in length. The morphology and kinematics of this structure can be well explained as gas following x (2) orbits at the center of a barred potential. We constrain the morpho-kinematic arrangement of the SSCs themselves, finding that an elliptical, angular-momentum-conserving ring is a good description of both the morphology and kinematics of the SSCs.
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