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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 8. |
- Joshi, Peter K, et al.
(författare)
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Directional dominance on stature and cognition in diverse human populations
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 523:7561, s. 459-462
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Homozygosity has long been associated with rare, often devastating, Mendelian disorders, and Darwin was one of the first to recognize that inbreeding reduces evolutionary fitness. However, the effect of the more distant parental relatedness that is common in modern human populations is less well understood. Genomic data now allow us to investigate the effects of homozygosity on traits of public health importance by observing contiguous homozygous segments (runs of homozygosity), which are inferred to be homozygous along their complete length. Given the low levels of genome-wide homozygosity prevalent in most human populations, information is required on very large numbers of people to provide sufficient power. Here we use runs of homozygosity to study 16 health-related quantitative traits in 354,224 individuals from 102 cohorts, and find statistically significant associations between summed runs of homozygosity and four complex traits: height, forced expiratory lung volume in one second, general cognitive ability and educational attainment (P < 1 × 10(-300), 2.1 × 10(-6), 2.5 × 10(-10) and 1.8 × 10(-10), respectively). In each case, increased homozygosity was associated with decreased trait value, equivalent to the offspring of first cousins being 1.2 cm shorter and having 10 months' less education. Similar effect sizes were found across four continental groups and populations with different degrees of genome-wide homozygosity, providing evidence that homozygosity, rather than confounding, directly contributes to phenotypic variance. Contrary to earlier reports in substantially smaller samples, no evidence was seen of an influence of genome-wide homozygosity on blood pressure and low density lipoprotein cholesterol, or ten other cardio-metabolic traits. Since directional dominance is predicted for traits under directional evolutionary selection, this study provides evidence that increased stature and cognitive function have been positively selected in human evolution, whereas many important risk factors for late-onset complex diseases may not have been.
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- Hibar, Derrek P., et al.
(författare)
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Novel genetic loci associated with hippocampal volume
- 2017
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The hippocampal formation is a brain structure integrally involved in episodic memory, spatial navigation, cognition and stress responsiveness. Structural abnormalities in hippocampal volume and shape are found in several common neuropsychiatric disorders. To identify the genetic underpinnings of hippocampal structure here we perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 33,536 individuals and discover six independent loci significantly associated with hippocampal volume, four of them novel. Of the novel loci, three lie within genes (ASTN2, DPP4 and MAST4) and one is found 200 kb upstream of SHH. A hippocampal subfield analysis shows that a locus within the MSRB3 gene shows evidence of a localized effect along the dentate gyrus, subiculum, CA1 and fissure. Further, we show that genetic variants associated with decreased hippocampal volume are also associated with increased risk for Alzheimer's disease (r(g) = -0.155). Our findings suggest novel biological pathways through which human genetic variation influences hippocampal volume and risk for neuropsychiatric illness.
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| 11. |
- Wessel, Jennifer, et al.
(författare)
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Low-frequency and rare exome chip variants associate with fasting glucose and type 2 diabetes susceptibility
- 2015
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Ingår i: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Fasting glucose and insulin are intermediate traits for type 2 diabetes. Here we explore the role of coding variation on these traits by analysis of variants on the HumanExome BeadChip in 60,564 non-diabetic individuals and in 16,491 T2D cases and 81,877 controls. We identify a novel association of a low-frequency nonsynonymous SNV in GLP1R (A316T; rs10305492; MAF = 1.4%) with lower FG (beta = -0.09 +/- 0.01 mmol l(-1), P = 3.4 x 10(-12)), T2D risk (OR[95% CI] = 0.86[0.76-0.96], P = 0.010), early insulin secretion (beta = -0.07 +/- 0.035 pmol(insulin) mmol(glucose)(-1), P = 0.048), but higher 2-h glucose (beta = 0.16 +/- 0.05 mmol l(-1), P = 4.3 x 10(-4)). We identify a gene-based association with FG at G6PC2 (p(SKAT) = 6.8 x 10(-6)) driven by four rare protein-coding SNVs (H177Y, Y207S, R283X and S324P). We identify rs651007 (MAF = 20%) in the first intron of ABO at the putative promoter of an antisense lncRNA, associating with higher FG (beta = 0.02 +/- 0.004 mmol l(-1), P = 1.3 x 10(-8)). Our approach identifies novel coding variant associations and extends the allelic spectrum of variation underlying diabetes-related quantitative traits and T2D susceptibility.
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- Choulagai, Bishnu, et al.
(författare)
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Jhaukhel-Duwakot Health Demographic Surveillance Site, Nepal: 2012 follow-up survey and use of skilled birth attendants
- 2015
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1654-9880 .- 1654-9716. ; 8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Estimates of disease burden in Nepal are based on cross-sectional studies that provide inadequate epidemiological information to support public health decisions. This study compares the health and demographic indicators at the end of 2012 in the Jhaukhel-Duwakot Health Demographic Surveillance Site (JD-HDSS) with the baseline conducted at the end of 2010. We also report on the use of skilled birth attendants (SBAs) and associated factors in the JD-HDSS at the follow-up point. Design: We used a structured questionnaire to survey 3,505 households in the JD-HDSS, Bhaktapur, Nepal. To investigate the use of SBAs, we interviewed 434 women who had delivered a baby within the prior 2 years. We compared demographic and health indicators at baseline and follow-up and assessed the association of SBA services with background variables. Results: Due to rising in-migration, the total population and number of households in the JD-HDSS increased (13,669 and 2,712 in 2010 vs. 16,918 and 3,505 in 2012). Self-reported morbidity decreased (11.1% vs. 7.1%, respectively), whereas accidents and injuries increased (2.9% vs. 6.5% of overall morbidity, respectively). At follow-up, the proportion of institutional delivery (93.1%) exceeded the national average (36%). Women who accessed antenatal care and used transport (e.g. bus, taxi, motorcycle) to reach a health facility were more likely to access institutional delivery. Conclusions: High in-migration increased the total population and number of households in the JD-HDSS, a peri-urban area where most health indicators exceed the national average. Major morbidity conditions (respiratory diseases, fever, gastrointestinal problems, and bone and joint problems) remain unchanged. Further investigation of reasons for increased proportion of accidents and injuries are recommended for their timely prevention. More than 90% of our respondents received adequate antenatal care and used institutional delivery, but only 13.2% accessed adequate postnatal care. Availability of transport and use of antenatal care was associated positively with institutional delivery.
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| 16. |
- Eriksson, Anna-Lena, 1971, et al.
(författare)
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Genetic Determinants of Circulating Estrogen Levels and Evidence of a Causal Effect of Estradiol on Bone Density in Men.
- 2018
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism. - : The Endocrine Society. - 0021-972X .- 1945-7197. ; 103:3, s. 991-1004
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Serum estradiol (E2) and estrone (E1) levels exhibit substantial heritability.To investigate the genetic regulation of serum E2 and E1 in men.Genome-wide association study in 11,097 men of European origin from nine epidemiological cohorts.Genetic determinants of serum E2 and E1 levels.Variants in/near CYP19A1 demonstrated the strongest evidence for association with E2, resolving to three independent signals. Two additional independent signals were found on the X chromosome; FAMily with sequence similarity 9, member B (FAM9B), rs5934505 (P = 3.4 × 10-8) and Xq27.3, rs5951794 (P = 3.1 × 10-10). E1 signals were found in CYP19A1 (rs2899472, P = 5.5 × 10-23), in Tripartite motif containing 4 (TRIM4; rs17277546, P = 5.8 × 10-14), and CYP11B1/B2 (rs10093796, P = 1.2 × 10-8). E2 signals in CYP19A1 and FAM9B were associated with bone mineral density (BMD). Mendelian randomization analysis suggested a causal effect of serum E2 on BMD in men. A 1 pg/mL genetically increased E2 was associated with a 0.048 standard deviation increase in lumbar spine BMD (P = 2.8 × 10-12). In men and women combined, CYP19A1 alleles associated with higher E2 levels were associated with lower degrees of insulin resistance.Our findings confirm that CYP19A1 is an important genetic regulator of E2 and E1 levels and strengthen the causal importance of E2 for bone health in men. We also report two independent loci on the X-chromosome for E2, and one locus each in TRIM4 and CYP11B1/B2, for E1.
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| 17. |
- Luis, Tiago C., et al.
(författare)
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Initial seeding of the embryonic thymus by immune-restricted lympho-myeloid progenitors
- 2016
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Ingår i: Nature Immunology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1529-2908 .- 1529-2916. ; 17:12, s. 1424-1435
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The final stages of restriction to the T cell lineage occur in the thymus after the entry of thymus-seeding progenitors (TSPs). The identity and lineage potential of TSPs remains unclear. Because the first embryonic TSPs enter a non-vascularized thymic rudiment, we were able to directly image and establish the functional and molecular properties of embryonic thymopoiesis-initiating progenitors (T-IPs) before their entry into the thymus and activation of Notch signaling. T-IPs did not include multipotent stem cells or molecular evidence of T cell-restricted progenitors. Instead, single-cell molecular and functional analysis demonstrated that most fetal T-IPs expressed genes of and had the potential to develop into lymphoid as well as myeloid components of the immune system. Moreover, studies of embryos deficient in the transcriptional regulator RBPJ demonstrated that canonical Notch signaling was not involved in pre-thymic restriction to the T cell lineage or the migration of T-IPs.
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| 20. |
- Shah, M., et al.
(författare)
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Assessment of geothermal water quality for industrial and irrigation purposes in the Unai geothermal field, Gujarat, India
- 2019
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Ingår i: Groundwater for Sustainable Development. - : Elsevier. - 2352-801X. ; 8, s. 59-68
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Nowadays, a spotlight on the direct manipulation of water from the geothermal fields is laid for manifold applications. This manuscript discusses the utilization of water produced from geothermal wells for irrigation and industrial purposes. In order to identify the suitability of the water for the above mentioned uses, various hydrochemical parameters were evaluated. Samples were collected from three geothermal well sites from Unai village, a prominent geothermal field situated in Navsari district, Gujarat, India. The hydrochemistry of the samples collected from hot spring (depth 30–45 m) was studied and samples were examined by calculating different parameters. The complete study was done individually for both industrial and irrigational uses of geothermal water. The mean surface temperature of the water is 55 °C and average pH of the sample studied is 8.12. The key Water Quality Indices (WQI) such as Langelier Saturation Index (LSI), Ryznar Stability Index (RSI), Puckorius Scaling Index (PSI) and Larson-Skold Index (LS) were examined for industrial utilization and the key indices like Sodium Absorption Ratio (SAR), Sodium Percentage (SP), Kelly Ratio (KR) Residual Sodium Carbonate (RSC) and Permeability Index (PI) were examined for irrigational utilization of geothermal water. LSI and RSI values show that carbonate and bicarbonate concentration is in the desirable range, however, LS (15.09, 13.54) is very high which indicates higher Cl- content. High value of indices such as SAR, KR, and SP points out the increased concentration of Na+ in the water sample. The results of this study would help the end users to identify the necessary water-treatments before utilizing the water for industrial and irrigation purposes in the study area.
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